The U.S. government has shifted from policy announcements to actively deploying capital, channeling funds through multiple programs to strengthen domestic and allied critical mineral and metal supply chains and related manufacturing. In practice, this financing is delivered through several key agencies: the Department of Energy (especially the Loan Programs Office), the Department of Defense (including Defense Production Act Title III and the Office of Strategic Capital), the Department of Commerce (such as the CHIPS Program Office), USDA Rural Development for select industrial support, and the International Development Finance Corporation for strategic overseas investments, alongside the Export-Import Bank, which plays a major role in funding projects from mining to manufacturing.

The global strategic resource reserve system is undergoing rapid restructuring, and a resource security battle centered on critical minerals has quietly begun.

When Trump announced the launch of a $12 billion "Gold Reserve Plan" at the White House to procure and stockpile critical minerals such as rare earths, gallium, and cobalt for manufacturers, the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association (CNIA) was also studying the inclusion of copper concentrates in the national reserves. The global strategic resource reserve system is undergoing rapid restructuring, and a resource security battle centered on critical minerals has quietly begun. In early February 2026, the world's two largest economies almost simultaneously announced strategic reserve plans for critical minerals. The Trump administration officially launched a $12 billion critical mineral reserve project named the "Gold Reserve Plan." This plan aims to establish a 60-day emergency mineral reserve, utilizing $10 billion in loans from the US Export-Import Bank and approximately $2 billion in private capital to procure and stockpile critical mineral resources such as rare earths, gallium, and cobalt. From the EU’s Critical Raw Materials Act setting clear recycling rate targets to the US’s tax incentive policies, a global policy network covering legislation, subsidies, and standards is taking shape. For China, the recycling industry of rare and precious metals is not only a vital component of resource security but also a key link in achieving the "dual carbon" goals and ensuring supply chain autonomy and control.

【SMM Scrap Aluminium Market Analysis】Southeast Asia's Secondary Aluminum Industry Trapped in "Margin Squeeze": Raw Material Surge Forces ADC12 Plant Cuts, Industry May Enter "Lunar New Year Mode" Early February 2026 marked a period of unprecedented regulatory volatility for the global secondary aluminum and scrap markets. Driven by a confluence of tariff upheavals, aggressive decarbonization mandates, and stringent environmental crackdowns, the traditional flow of aluminum scrap is being fundamentally redrawn. As the United States implements sweeping new import surcharges, the European Union weighs restrictive export measures, and Southeast Asian hubs like Malaysia tighten their borders against contaminated materials, market participants are facing mounting compliance costs and disrupted arbitrage windows. This review examines the key policy shifts that defined the ex-China aluminum recycling sector this month and their immediate implications for global trade flows. The United States: How the 10% Surcharge Disrupts Secondary Aluminum Following the United States Supreme Court’s ruling, which invalidated Trump’s IEEPA tariffs on February 20, 2026, many trade goods found themselves navigating a complicated and chaotic new regulatory landscape. Within hours of the ruling, President Trump pivoted to Section 122 of the 1974 Trade Act, levying a 10% blanket global import surcharge that went into effect on February 24, replacing the former country-based tariffs. There have also been threats made by President Trump to raise this surcharge to the statutory maximum of 15%, which could further disrupt global trade and U.S. imports. Even though most primary aluminum products will not see a huge change due to already being burdened by the 50% Section 232 tariffs, the secondary aluminum market, which formerly enjoyed a 0% tariff under Section 232, might now be caught in the newest 10% blanket import surcharge. The US Geological Survey’s Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026, published in February 2026, estimated an increase in imported scrap into the US in 2025, reaching roughly 890,000 metric tons, which is approximately a 27% increase compared to 2024. Even though scrap imports only make up roughly 20% of the US’s total scrap consumption, a blanket import surcharge will likely affect a significant portion of total scrap imports for the active period of the Section 122 policy. This is especially true as the policy remains highly volatile and faces the risk of being increased or challenged in the near future. Europe: The "Scrap Leakage" Debate and Impending Export Controls The EU aluminum recycling sector is also on edge following the closure of the EU’s public consultation in late January. Currently, trade measures are widely expected to be unveiled and launched during Spring 2026, aimed at curbing what the EU terms "aluminum scrap leakage." European Aluminum, as one of the biggest supporters of trade measures to control scrap leakage, cites outflows exceeding 1.3 million tons annually that could instead be utilized domestically to meet decarbonization and net-zero targets. In February, the Bureau of International Recycling (BIR) released statements opposing these trade measures, stating that "the imposition of export restrictions or trade barriers is fundamentally unnecessary and risks producing significant unintended consequences for the entire value chain." BIR also explained how its own monitoring fails to identify scrap leakage issues, noting that the EU currently has insufficient domestic smelting capacity to absorb the extra scrap that is being exported out of Europe. In the same statement, BIR warned of a probable reduction in domestic aluminum scrap prices and a decline in the overall quality of waste management systems. Similarly, in 2025, the European Recycling Industries' Confederation (EuRIC) published stark warnings against the possible restriction of aluminum scrap exports. In a scenario where all grades of aluminum scrap are restricted from being exported, or if exports are hit with a significant surcharge, the Asian market, especially China, India, and Southeast Asia, all of which are large importers of EU scrap would be heavily impacted. Supply would see significant decreases, and prices outside Europe might climb to new highs as markets adjust to fill the gap, while secondary prices within the EU could drop to new lows due to localized oversupply. Malaysia: The E-Waste Crackdown and Stringent SIRIM Enforcement Following the success of "Ops Metal" in 2025, Malaysia has seen a massive volume of illegal scrap imports seized, amounting to a total value of RM 7 billion. In response to the influx of illegal scrap imports frequently mixed with electronic waste, the Malaysian government implemented an absolute e-waste import ban effective February 4, 2026, in order to curb these environmental violations. While aluminum scrap is still legally allowed to be imported into Malaysia, albeit under strict SIRIM purity requirements, the absolute e-waste ban will inevitably affect certain secondary grades. Notably, Zorba imports will likely see significant increases in transit and processing times, as customs officials are now far more likely to detain such cargoes for exhaustive inspections due to the high probability of e-waste contamination. In the broader picture, the volume of aluminum scrap legally entering Malaysia will likely decrease. Coupled with escalating processing delays at customs, this friction increases the probability that businesses will actively divert their aluminum scrap trade elsewhere in Southeast Asia, such as to Thailand. Conclusion Looking ahead to the second quarter of 2026, the secondary aluminum market will likely remain in a state of flux as these regional policies take full effect. The era of frictionless global scrap trade is rapidly giving way to a localized, highly regulated environment. For remelters and traders, navigating this landscape will require extreme supply chain agility and a hyper-focus on material compliance. As European supply risks being politically landlocked, U.S. raw material imports become suddenly more expensive, and Southeast Asian quality barriers rise, we expect to see continued volatility in regional premiums and a widening decoupling of traditional scrap-to-LME pricing mechanisms in certain regions. Adapting to this fragmented reality will be the defining challenge for the industry in the months to come.

[SMM Analysis: Key Anchor in Great Power Rivalry: The U.S. "Project Vault" and the Changing Resource Landscape in Latin America] While the second phase of Chinese company's Mirador copper mine in Ecuador remains mired in a 'completed but awaiting approval' deadlock, 10,000 kilometers away in Washington, the President, alongside the Export-Import Bank of the United States, is announcing a historic supply chain security initiative named 'Project Vault.'

[SMM Analysis: The "Key Anchor Point" in Great Power Rivalry: The US "Treasury Plan" and the Resource Reshuffle in Latin America] As the second phase of the Mirador copper mine project in Ecuador, developed by a Chinese enterprise, remains stuck in a "built but awaiting approval" deadlock, ten thousand kilometers away in Washington, the US Export-Import Bank, together with the President, is announcing a historic supply chain security initiative called the "Treasury Plan." In the pause and the start, a global covert battle over critical minerals such as copper, lithium, cobalt, and gallium is moving from behind the scenes to the forefront.

Brazil seeks to avoid signing exclusive agreements on critical minerals with other countries, instead maintaining an open stance and pursuing partnerships with various nations. Recently, the U.S. government disclosed details of "Project Vault" (PV), an initiative led by the U.S. Export-Import Bank (EXIM) aimed at formulating a strategy to secure domestic supplies of critical minerals. The EXIM Board approved up to $10 billion in direct loans for PV, more than double the largest financing amount in the bank's history. PV is designed to shield U.S. domestic manufacturers from supply shocks, expand the production and processing of critical raw materials in the U.S., and fundamentally improve the state of the U.S. critical minerals industry.

[SMM Breaking News: Brazil Not Seeking Exclusive Critical Minerals Agreements] Brazil, in terms of critical minerals cooperation, does not seek to sign exclusive agreements with other countries but adopts an open stance, actively pursuing partnerships with various nations. Recently, the US government disclosed specific details of "Project Vault" (PV). This initiative, led by the US Export-Import Bank (EXIM), aims to formulate a strategy to secure the supply of critical minerals within the US. The EXIM board has approved up to $10 billion in direct loans for PV, an amount more than double the largest financing in the bank's history. Project Vault is dedicated to protecting domestic US manufacturers from supply shocks, promoting the expansion of production and processing scale for critical raw materials in the US, and fundamentally improving the overall condition of the US critical minerals industry.

Cornish Metals Plc announced on Thursday that the US Export-Import Bank has issued a letter of interest for financing of up to $225 million to support the development of the South Crofty mine. The financing is subject to the explicit condition that the mine must supply tin ore to the US.

The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), the world’s top cobalt supplier (over 70% of global 2024 supply), imposed 2025 export bans/quotas, roiling cobalt prices. With large-scale exports unresumed, the U.S. launched "Project Vault" to secure critical minerals, adding DRC supply uncertainties and heightening geopolitical risks for Chinese cobalt procurement.