China's stainless steel futures gave back ground sharply in the first trading week after the May Day holiday, as a sudden easing of Middle East tensions deflated the risk premium that had carried prices to recent highs. With the cost-side narrative unwinding and physical demand showing little follow-through, the market is searching for a new floor

On Tuesday, April 28, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) stated in its latest monthly bulletin that the global copper cathode market posted an oversupply of 276,000 mt in February, compared with a surplus of 34,000 mt in January. Data showed that global copper cathode production totaled 2.26 million mt in February, while consumption stood at 1.98 million mt. The organization also added that for the first two months of 2026, based on China's apparent consumption (excluding bonded warehouse and unreported inventory changes), the global copper cathode supply and demand preliminarily indicated an oversupply of approximately 310,000 mt. (Wenhua Consolidated)

On April 23 (Thursday), the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) stated that the global copper cathode market is expected to shift to an oversupply of approximately 96,000 mt in 2026, reversing the previously forecast supply deficit of 150,000 mt, due to slowing demand growth and increased secondary copper production. The organization also forecast that the copper cathode surplus will widen to 377,000 mt in 2027, but warned that geopolitical risks including wars in the Middle East and shifts in trade flows could impact the market's supply-demand balance. ICSG expects global copper cathode consumption to grow 1.6% in 2026, down from the previous estimate of 2.1%, with consumption growth of 2% projected for 2027. China's copper demand is expected to grow 1.9% in 2026, while demand growth in other regions is projected at 1.3%. ICSG added that copper consumption in the EU and Japan will remain subdued, while Asia will continue to be the primary driver of global demand growth. In terms of supply, global copper cathode production is expected to increase only 0.4% in 2026, mainly constrained by limited copper concentrates supply, though increased secondary copper production will partially offset this constraint; with higher copper concentrates production and new capacity coming online, copper cathode production growth is expected to accelerate to 3% in 2027. ICSG stated that global copper ore production is expected to grow 1.6% in 2026, down from the previously forecast 2.3%, due to slower production growth in the DRC, Chile, and Indonesia, as well as operational constraints at the Grasberg and Kamoa mines following issues in 2025. The organization expects global copper ore production to grow 2.3% in 2027, supported by the gradual ramp-up of new capacity, improved production in Chile and Zambia, and higher mine utilization rates in Indonesia and the DRC. (Webstock Inc.)

Australian engineering firm Worley Ltd has been awarded the front-end engineering and design FEED contract for the RjukanLH2 project, set to be the Nordic regions inaugural liquid green hydrogen facility in Norway. Led by Norwegian Hydrogen AS, the 25-MW plant is designed to produce 10 tonnes of liquid hydrogen per day using renewable electricity and next-generation modular alkaline electrolysers to serve the maritime and industrial sectors. The agreement includes an exclusive option for EPC services, with the execution phase slated to commence in the second half of 2026 and initial fuel deliveries targeted for 2028. Logistics giant Samskip has already been secured as an off-taker for the project.

Japanese electronics maker Kyocera has entered into reciprocal power purchase agreements ('PPAs') with Cosmo Energy Holdings. Starting next month, Kyocera will supply solar power from its assets to Cosmo Energy Solutions. In exchange, Kyocera will procure electricity from the 48 MW Nakaki wind farm operated by Cosmo Eco Power. The partnership aims to diversify their renewable portfolios and explore future collaborations in battery storage. This move follows Kyocera's recent agreement with Osaki Electric and Taiwan Plastics Group to jointly develop an 'AI'-based energy management system integrating solar generation and lithium iron phosphate battery storage, targeting a final contract by the end of this year.

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight, LME copper opened at $12,264.5/mt. After testing a low of $12,282.5/mt in early trading, its center fluctuated downward, nearing the close and hitting a low of $12,079/mt, before finally closing at $12,120/mt, down 1.33. Trading volume reached 18,000 lots, open interest stood at 296,000 lots, an increase of 326 lots from the previous trading day, mainly reflecting bears adding positions overall. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2605 contract opened at 95,350 yuan/mt, tested a low of 95,900 yuan/mt in early trading, and then its center moved lower to a low of 94,950 yuan/mt, before finally closing at 95,150 yuan/mt, down 0.45. Trading volume reached 39,000 lots, open interest stood at 188,000 lots, a decrease of 2,104 lots from the previous trading day, mainly reflecting bulls reducing positions overall.

In the first week after the Chinese New Year, the lead-acid battery market gradually resumed operations, with most producers starting production and logistics gradually recovering, allowing factories to resume battery shipments. On the dealer side, a few local dealers maintained normal business during the Chinese New Year holiday, while some dealers on holiday resumed operations after February 19, with the majority starting around February 24 (the eighth day of the first lunar month). The final batch will resume operations before the Lantern Festival on March 3. Currently, end-use consumption in the lead-acid battery market remains moderate, and dealers' enthusiasm for restocking after the holiday is low, with only just-in-time procurement taking place. Additionally, the selling price in the battery wholesale market has shown no significant change compared to pre-holiday levels.

[SMM Tin Morning Brief: During the 2026 Chinese New Year Holiday, SHFE Tin Market Was Closed While LME Tin Prices Fluctuated at Highs]

The champagne corks in Brussels may have popped too soon. On January 14, 2026, the European Commission released a soaring press statement celebrating the official entry of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) into its "Definitive Regime." In the official narrative, this was a triumph of digitalization: over 10,000 customs declarations verified in real-time, with the system running as smooth as silk. However, if we shift the lens from the desks of Brussels to the customs brokers in Hamburg, the steel traders in Rotterdam, and the customs officials currently drowning in paperwork across the continent, a starkly different picture emerges. What we are witnessing is a carefully whitewashed administrative "cardiac arrest." Forensic-level investigation into the first seven weeks of 2026 reveals that the landing of CBAM is far from the glitz claimed by officials. On the contrary, plagued by suspected low-level data errors, catastrophic approval backlogs, and teetering temporary patches, the mechanism is currently mired in a dual crisis of legality and operations. I. The Absurd "Default Values": When Taiwan’s Stainless Steel "Became" Indonesian Coal If one were to find a single representative footnote for this chaos, the "Default Value Controversy" would be the undisputed choice. For importers unable to obtain precise carbon emission data from upstream factories, the EU’s official "default values" are a lifeline. This was supposed to be a baseline derived from rigorous scientific calculation. Yet, in the 2,400-page document released on December 31, 2025, mere hours before the new rules took effect, industry experts witnessed a jaw-dropping scene. This is not merely a margin of error; it looks more like a metallurgical farce. Industry bodies have pointed out that when the Directorate-General for Taxation and Customs Union (DG TAXUD) established the carbon emission default values for stainless steel from the Taiwan region, the data tables contained suspected structural errors, bearing traces of a "copy-paste" job from Indonesian data structures. The consequence? In the physical world, processing a steel slab into a precision tube requires significant electricity, meaning the finished product should logically have higher emissions than the semi-finished one. Yet, in the table published by the EU, industry players have flagged phenomena where "Taiwanese semi-finished stainless steel allegedly emits more than the finished product," vehemently questioning its rationality. In metallurgy, this is impossible; in a bureaucratic Excel sheet, it became legal reference. More fatally, Taiwan’s stainless steel industry relies primarily on Electric Arc Furnaces (EAF) and scrap recycling, resulting in a relatively low carbon footprint. In contrast, the Indonesian stainless steel industry is highly dependent on Nickel Pig Iron (NPI) and coal-fired power, yielding extremely high emissions. This suspected "slip of the hand" by the EU is akin to forcefully assigning the calorie count of a rich braised pork belly to a light garden salad. This has directly resulted in European buyers of Taiwanese stainless steel facing artificially inflated financial costs. II. A 27% Pass Rate: The 15,000-Strong Army Blocked at the Gate If data controversies are "soft tissue damage," the backlog in administrative approval is a fatal "compound fracture." The core rule of the CBAM definitive stage is simple: without "authorized declarant" status, you cannot import. This means every company wishing to ship a screw or an aluminum sheet into Europe must first secure an "entry ticket." The reality is brutal. According to the Commission’s official press release, by January 7, over 12,000 operators across the EU had submitted applications, with just over 4,100 approved (a pass rate of roughly 34%). However, industry estimates suggest that by late February, applications swelled to approximately 15,000, causing the pass rate to slide to around 27%. Where did the massive remainder go? They are stuck in the overwhelmed approval systems of National Competent Authorities (NCAs). In Germany, due to the deluge of applications, logistics giant DSV issued a public notice stating it could not support clients with CBAM authorization and registration, bluntly forcing thousands of SMEs to crash into the complex reporting system like headless flies. In France, the labyrinthine digital authentication process has turned the application into a maze only a hacker could navigate. To prevent European ports from paralysis, the EU was forced to administer a "painkiller": Customs Code Y238. This is a temporary "hall pass" allowing companies that applied before March 31 but have not yet been approved to keep goods moving for now. But make no mistake, this merely lengthens the fuse on the bomb. III. The Strategy of Silence and the Risk of "Retroactive Reckoning" Faced with industry skepticism, Brussels seems to have chosen the oldest PR strategy: silence. Although industry giants like the Gerber Group issued detailed technical warnings as early as January 9, pointing out the absurdity of the Taiwan/Indonesia data, the industry notes that as of late February, no official "Corrigendum" has been issued to legally revise the default values. The updated Excel version released on February 13 merely added a disclaimer: "information only." This rigid attitude transfers all risk to the enterprises. For companies currently relying on the Y238 temporary arrangement, the real danger is not "whether goods are released," but "whether they will be retroactively penalized." Competent authorities have publicly warned that if an authorization application is ultimately rejected, member states can, under Article 26 (2)/(2a) of the CBAM Regulation, retroactively penalize goods imported during the waiting period. Such fines can, in certain cases, reach 3 to 5 times the standard penalty. In other words, this is not a procedural flaw; it is a compliance risk that could land directly on cash flows and balance sheets. Conclusion: Who Pays the Price for Hubris? CBAM was supposed to be the crown jewel of the EU’s climate ambition, a lighthouse for global green trade. But the opening scene of 2026 makes it look more like an unfinished Tower of Babel. From the "data ghosts" haunting the industry to the severely backlogged approval channels, this "hard landing" exposes a chasm between regulatory ambition and administrative capability. For European importers, every day now is an exercise in navigating through fog. They are forced to calculate not just carbon emissions, but the cost of policy uncertainty. And for the European Commission, if it cannot step out of this arrogant "silence" and clarify these glaring operational controversies, what CBAM loses will be more than just data accuracy; it will be the trust of its global trading partners.

Cobalt Metal: This week, the domestic cobalt metal market saw limited overall changes, with spot prices rebounding slightly within a low range. Both supply and demand remained mediocre: mainstream smelters’ ex-works quotations were largely stable; approaching year-end, logistics gradually halted, and inquiries and quotations from traders and downstream enterprises essentially ceased, resulting in sluggish market activity. Fundamentally, cobalt intermediate products as raw materials have yet to arrive at ports in large volumes, and the structurally tight supply pattern upstream has not fundamentally shifted, continuing to provide some support for cobalt prices. Looking ahead, as market operations gradually resume after the Chinese New Year, restocking demand from downstream sectors is expected to be released, and refined cobalt prices are anticipated to retain upside room. Cobalt Hydroxide: This week, the cobalt intermediate products market continued to exhibit a “price without market” pattern. Supply side, most intermediate products from miners are still awaiting shipment locally in the DRC, with external quotations yet to resume, keeping spot supply tight. Demand side, as year-end approaches, some smelters have entered production line clearing and maintenance shutdowns, leading to a noticeable weakening in raw material purchase willingness and maintaining sluggish actual transactions. Overall, against the backdrop of an unclear timeline for large-scale arrivals of cobalt intermediate products at ports and escalating geopolitical risks, the structurally tight supply of cobalt raw materials in China may further intensify. Intermediate product prices are expected to retain upward momentum in the short term, with subsequent focus needed on logistics recovery pace and miners’ export progress. Cobalt Sulphate: This week, the cobalt sulphate market maintained generally sluggish operations, with spot prices largely stable. Supply side, approaching the Chinese New Year holiday, most smelters have successively scheduled maintenance shutdowns, reducing spot offers. Meanwhile, boosted by recent positive news from the cobalt ore sector, enterprises’ bullish expectations for the future have strengthened, leading producers to suspend quotations and tightening spot supply. Demand side, due to concerns over post-holiday cobalt sulphate price increases, downstream enterprises’ purchase willingness has recovered compared to the previous period, with some small and medium-sized ternary cathode precursor makers actively inquiring. However, with pre-holiday logistics halts imminent, actual transactions remained relatively limited, and overall market activity was subdued. Looking ahead, as logistics resume after the holiday and downstream enterprises gradually restart production and restock, demand is expected to be released progressively. Against the backdrop of phased supply tightening and sustained raw material cost support, cobalt sulphate prices are projected to regain an upward trend.