In the first week after the Chinese New Year, the lead-acid battery market gradually resumed operations, with most producers starting production and logistics gradually recovering, allowing factories to resume battery shipments. On the dealer side, a few local dealers maintained normal business during the Chinese New Year holiday, while some dealers on holiday resumed operations after February 19, with the majority starting around February 24 (the eighth day of the first lunar month). The final batch will resume operations before the Lantern Festival on March 3. Currently, end-use consumption in the lead-acid battery market remains moderate, and dealers' enthusiasm for restocking after the holiday is low, with only just-in-time procurement taking place. Additionally, the selling price in the battery wholesale market has shown no significant change compared to pre-holiday levels.

[SMM Tin Morning Brief: During the 2026 Chinese New Year Holiday, SHFE Tin Market Was Closed While LME Tin Prices Fluctuated at Highs]

The champagne corks in Brussels may have popped too soon. On January 14, 2026, the European Commission released a soaring press statement celebrating the official entry of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) into its "Definitive Regime." In the official narrative, this was a triumph of digitalization: over 10,000 customs declarations verified in real-time, with the system running as smooth as silk. However, if we shift the lens from the desks of Brussels to the customs brokers in Hamburg, the steel traders in Rotterdam, and the customs officials currently drowning in paperwork across the continent, a starkly different picture emerges. What we are witnessing is a carefully whitewashed administrative "cardiac arrest." Forensic-level investigation into the first seven weeks of 2026 reveals that the landing of CBAM is far from the glitz claimed by officials. On the contrary, plagued by suspected low-level data errors, catastrophic approval backlogs, and teetering temporary patches, the mechanism is currently mired in a dual crisis of legality and operations. I. The Absurd "Default Values": When Taiwan’s Stainless Steel "Became" Indonesian Coal If one were to find a single representative footnote for this chaos, the "Default Value Controversy" would be the undisputed choice. For importers unable to obtain precise carbon emission data from upstream factories, the EU’s official "default values" are a lifeline. This was supposed to be a baseline derived from rigorous scientific calculation. Yet, in the 2,400-page document released on December 31, 2025, mere hours before the new rules took effect, industry experts witnessed a jaw-dropping scene. This is not merely a margin of error; it looks more like a metallurgical farce. Industry bodies have pointed out that when the Directorate-General for Taxation and Customs Union (DG TAXUD) established the carbon emission default values for stainless steel from the Taiwan region, the data tables contained suspected structural errors, bearing traces of a "copy-paste" job from Indonesian data structures. The consequence? In the physical world, processing a steel slab into a precision tube requires significant electricity, meaning the finished product should logically have higher emissions than the semi-finished one. Yet, in the table published by the EU, industry players have flagged phenomena where "Taiwanese semi-finished stainless steel allegedly emits more than the finished product," vehemently questioning its rationality. In metallurgy, this is impossible; in a bureaucratic Excel sheet, it became legal reference. More fatally, Taiwan’s stainless steel industry relies primarily on Electric Arc Furnaces (EAF) and scrap recycling, resulting in a relatively low carbon footprint. In contrast, the Indonesian stainless steel industry is highly dependent on Nickel Pig Iron (NPI) and coal-fired power, yielding extremely high emissions. This suspected "slip of the hand" by the EU is akin to forcefully assigning the calorie count of a rich braised pork belly to a light garden salad. This has directly resulted in European buyers of Taiwanese stainless steel facing artificially inflated financial costs. II. A 27% Pass Rate: The 15,000-Strong Army Blocked at the Gate If data controversies are "soft tissue damage," the backlog in administrative approval is a fatal "compound fracture." The core rule of the CBAM definitive stage is simple: without "authorized declarant" status, you cannot import. This means every company wishing to ship a screw or an aluminum sheet into Europe must first secure an "entry ticket." The reality is brutal. According to the Commission’s official press release, by January 7, over 12,000 operators across the EU had submitted applications, with just over 4,100 approved (a pass rate of roughly 34%). However, industry estimates suggest that by late February, applications swelled to approximately 15,000, causing the pass rate to slide to around 27%. Where did the massive remainder go? They are stuck in the overwhelmed approval systems of National Competent Authorities (NCAs). In Germany, due to the deluge of applications, logistics giant DSV issued a public notice stating it could not support clients with CBAM authorization and registration, bluntly forcing thousands of SMEs to crash into the complex reporting system like headless flies. In France, the labyrinthine digital authentication process has turned the application into a maze only a hacker could navigate. To prevent European ports from paralysis, the EU was forced to administer a "painkiller": Customs Code Y238. This is a temporary "hall pass" allowing companies that applied before March 31 but have not yet been approved to keep goods moving for now. But make no mistake, this merely lengthens the fuse on the bomb. III. The Strategy of Silence and the Risk of "Retroactive Reckoning" Faced with industry skepticism, Brussels seems to have chosen the oldest PR strategy: silence. Although industry giants like the Gerber Group issued detailed technical warnings as early as January 9, pointing out the absurdity of the Taiwan/Indonesia data, the industry notes that as of late February, no official "Corrigendum" has been issued to legally revise the default values. The updated Excel version released on February 13 merely added a disclaimer: "information only." This rigid attitude transfers all risk to the enterprises. For companies currently relying on the Y238 temporary arrangement, the real danger is not "whether goods are released," but "whether they will be retroactively penalized." Competent authorities have publicly warned that if an authorization application is ultimately rejected, member states can, under Article 26 (2)/(2a) of the CBAM Regulation, retroactively penalize goods imported during the waiting period. Such fines can, in certain cases, reach 3 to 5 times the standard penalty. In other words, this is not a procedural flaw; it is a compliance risk that could land directly on cash flows and balance sheets. Conclusion: Who Pays the Price for Hubris? CBAM was supposed to be the crown jewel of the EU’s climate ambition, a lighthouse for global green trade. But the opening scene of 2026 makes it look more like an unfinished Tower of Babel. From the "data ghosts" haunting the industry to the severely backlogged approval channels, this "hard landing" exposes a chasm between regulatory ambition and administrative capability. For European importers, every day now is an exercise in navigating through fog. They are forced to calculate not just carbon emissions, but the cost of policy uncertainty. And for the European Commission, if it cannot step out of this arrogant "silence" and clarify these glaring operational controversies, what CBAM loses will be more than just data accuracy; it will be the trust of its global trading partners.

Cobalt Metal: This week, the domestic cobalt metal market saw limited overall changes, with spot prices rebounding slightly within a low range. Both supply and demand remained mediocre: mainstream smelters’ ex-works quotations were largely stable; approaching year-end, logistics gradually halted, and inquiries and quotations from traders and downstream enterprises essentially ceased, resulting in sluggish market activity. Fundamentally, cobalt intermediate products as raw materials have yet to arrive at ports in large volumes, and the structurally tight supply pattern upstream has not fundamentally shifted, continuing to provide some support for cobalt prices. Looking ahead, as market operations gradually resume after the Chinese New Year, restocking demand from downstream sectors is expected to be released, and refined cobalt prices are anticipated to retain upside room. Cobalt Hydroxide: This week, the cobalt intermediate products market continued to exhibit a “price without market” pattern. Supply side, most intermediate products from miners are still awaiting shipment locally in the DRC, with external quotations yet to resume, keeping spot supply tight. Demand side, as year-end approaches, some smelters have entered production line clearing and maintenance shutdowns, leading to a noticeable weakening in raw material purchase willingness and maintaining sluggish actual transactions. Overall, against the backdrop of an unclear timeline for large-scale arrivals of cobalt intermediate products at ports and escalating geopolitical risks, the structurally tight supply of cobalt raw materials in China may further intensify. Intermediate product prices are expected to retain upward momentum in the short term, with subsequent focus needed on logistics recovery pace and miners’ export progress. Cobalt Sulphate: This week, the cobalt sulphate market maintained generally sluggish operations, with spot prices largely stable. Supply side, approaching the Chinese New Year holiday, most smelters have successively scheduled maintenance shutdowns, reducing spot offers. Meanwhile, boosted by recent positive news from the cobalt ore sector, enterprises’ bullish expectations for the future have strengthened, leading producers to suspend quotations and tightening spot supply. Demand side, due to concerns over post-holiday cobalt sulphate price increases, downstream enterprises’ purchase willingness has recovered compared to the previous period, with some small and medium-sized ternary cathode precursor makers actively inquiring. However, with pre-holiday logistics halts imminent, actual transactions remained relatively limited, and overall market activity was subdued. Looking ahead, as logistics resume after the holiday and downstream enterprises gradually restart production and restock, demand is expected to be released progressively. Against the backdrop of phased supply tightening and sustained raw material cost support, cobalt sulphate prices are projected to regain an upward trend.

Refined Cobalt: The domestic refined cobalt market saw limited overall changes this week, with spot prices rebounding slightly within a low range. Both supply and demand remained mediocre: mainstream smelters' ex-works offers were largely stable; approaching year-end, logistics gradually halted, and inquiries and offers from traders and downstream enterprises basically ceased, resulting in sluggish market trading. Fundamentally, cobalt intermediate products have yet to arrive at ports in large volumes, and the structurally tight supply of upstream raw materials has not fundamentally shifted, continuing to provide some support for cobalt prices. Looking ahead, as market operations gradually resume after the Chinese New Year, downstream restocking demand is expected to be released, and refined cobalt prices are anticipated to retain upside room. Cobalt Intermediate Products: The cobalt intermediate products market continued to exhibit a "price without market" pattern this week. Supply side, most intermediate products from miners are still awaiting shipment locally in the DRC, with no resumed external offers, keeping spot cargo supply tight. Demand side, approaching year-end, some smelters entered production line clearing and maintenance shutdowns, leading to significantly weaker raw material purchase willingness, and actual market transactions remained sluggish. Overall, with the timing of large-scale arrivals of cobalt intermediate products at ports still unclear, coupled with escalating geopolitical risks, the structurally tight supply of cobalt raw materials in China may further intensify. Intermediate product prices are expected to maintain upward momentum in the short term, with subsequent focus needed on logistics recovery pace and miner export progress. Cobalt Sulphate: The cobalt sulphate market maintained generally sluggish operations this week, with spot prices largely stable. Supply side, nearing the Chinese New Year holiday, most smelters have successively scheduled maintenance shutdowns, reducing spot offers. Meanwhile, boosted by recent positive news from the cobalt ore sector, enterprises' bullish expectations for the future have strengthened, with producers suspending offers and spot cargo supply tightening. Demand side, due to concerns over post-holiday cobalt sulphate price increases, downstream enterprises' purchase willingness recovered somewhat compared to earlier periods, with some small and medium-sized ternary cathode precursor makers actively inquiring. However, with pre-holiday logistics halting imminently, actual transactions remained relatively limited, and overall market trading was subdued. Looking ahead, as logistics resume post-holiday and downstream enterprises gradually restart production and restock, demand is expected to be released progressively. Against the backdrop of phased supply tightening and sustained raw material cost support, cobalt sulphate prices are projected to regain an upward trend. SMM New Energy Research Team Cong Wang 021-5166-6838 Rui Ma 021-5159-5780 Disheng Feng 021-5166-6714 Yanlin Lü 021-2070-7875 Wenhao Xiao 021-5166-6872 Haohan Zhang 021-5166-6752 Zihan Wang 021-5166-6914 Jie Wang 021-5159-5902 Yang Xu 021-5166-6760 Lianting Yang 021-5159-5835 Zhaoyu Wang 021-5166-6827

The SMM battery-grade lithium carbonate index stood at 142,168 yuan/mt. Battery-grade lithium carbonate was priced at 138,000-147,000 yuan/mt, with an average of 142,500 yuan/mt; industrial-grade lithium carbonate was priced at 135,000-143,000 yuan/mt, with an average of 139,000 yuan/mt. The most-traded lithium carbonate futures contract moved sideways today. As logistics gradually halted, downstream material plants had largely completed their stockpiling for February, with most enterprises shifting to a wait-and-see stance, and only a few engaging in back-pricing for closing positions and sporadic purchases. Overall, market inquiries and transactions remained relatively sluggish.

The SMM battery-grade lithium carbonate index price was 138,483 yuan/mt. Battery-grade lithium carbonate was priced at 134,000-142,000 yuan/mt, with an average price of 138,000 yuan/mt. Industrial-grade lithium carbonate was priced at 131,000-138,000 yuan/mt, with an average price of 134,500 yuan/mt. Today, the most-traded lithium carbonate futures contract showed a fluctuating upward trend. As logistics gradually halted, downstream material plants had largely completed their stockpiling for February, with most enterprises adopting a wait-and-see attitude and holding low psychological price levels for procurement. Overall, market inquiries and transactions remained sluggish.

The SMM battery-grade lithium carbonate index was 134,406 yuan/mt. SMM Battery-grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 132,000-140,000 yuan/mt, with an average price of 136,000 yuan/mt. SMM Industrial-grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 129,000-136,000 yuan/mt, with an average price of 132,500 yuan/mt. Today, the most-traded lithium carbonate futures contract moved sideways. As logistics gradually halted, downstream material plants largely completed February stockpiling. Most enterprises turned cautious and adopted a wait-and-see approach, with low psychological price levels for procurement. Some plants engaged in back-pricing and closing positions when prices were relatively low. Overall, market inquiries and transactions were sluggish.

On Friday, November 21, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) stated in its latest monthly bulletin that the global copper cathode market recorded a deficit of 51,000 mt in September, while there was a surplus of 41,000 mt in August. The agency reported that the market showed a surplus of 94,000 mt in the first nine months of the year, compared to a surplus of 310,000 mt during the same period last year. Global copper cathode production was 2.37 million mt in September, with consumption at 2.42 million mt. After adjusting for inventory changes in Chinese bonded warehouses, the market showed a deficit of 50,000 mt in September, compared to a surplus of 47,000 mt in August. (Comprehensive Report by Wen Hua) As the world's largest copper consumer, China's industry chain faces three major challenges: increasing external dependence on upstream resources, overcapacity in midstream processing, and downstream demand being suppressed by high copper prices. To help the industry navigate these changes, SMM has collaborated with copper industry chain enterprises to jointly produce. Click the following link to receive the Copper Industry Chain Distribution Map for free: . SMM Co-production Contact Liu Mingkang 156 5309 0867 liumingkang@smm.cn

In the short term, silver prices have held key support levels and ended the pullback phase but remain fluctuating at highs. The three key drivers—macro interest rate cuts, industrial demand gaps, and gold/silver ratio correction—remain unchanged, while ETF open interest continues to stay elevated. If inflation data this week aligns with expectations and no unexpected geopolitical easing occurs, bullish sentiment may reignite, potentially driving silver prices into a new upward trend.