[SMM Hot-rolled Coil Daily Transactions] On June 17, the total daily trading volume of hot-rolled coil from sample enterprises in SMM's four cities (Shanghai, Lecong, Tianjin, Ningbo) was 13,160 mt, down 830 mt or 5.5% DoD, up 23.11% YoY (solar calendar), and up 23.11% YoY (lunar calendar).

This week, Ningbo's large-sample hot-rolled coil inventory stood at 335,700 mt, down 26,000 mt WoW, a decline of 7.27%, and up 12.61% YoY on a lunar calendar basis.

This week, Shanghai hot-rolled coil inventory stood at 439,500 mt, up 20,700 mt WoW, a 4.94% increase; up 48.88% calendar YoY.

[SMM HRC Daily Trading Volume] On June 16, the total daily trading volume of hot-rolled coil among sample enterprises in SMM's four cities (Shanghai, Lecong, Tianjin, Ningbo) was 13,990 mt, down 1,000 mt day on day, or -6.8%, with Gregorian calendar YoY at -9.45% and lunar calendar YoY at +46.65%

This week, hot-rolled coil inventories at Zhangjiagang Port were 271,000 mt, down 2,000 mt WoW (a decrease of 0.73%), and up 11.07% YoY.

SMM June 16 News: Metals Market: Overnight, base metals on the domestic and overseas markets showed mixed performance. LME tin led the gains with a 2.54% increase, while SHFE tin rose 1.52%. SHFE aluminum fell 1.8%, and LME aluminum dropped 4.52%, with the rest of the metals posting % changes within 1%. Alumina main contract fell 1.5%, and cast aluminum main contract declined 1.41%. Overnight, ferrous metals generally fell. Iron ore rose 0.39%, hot-rolled coil edged up 0.18%, and stainless steel gained 1.72%, while declines for the remaining metals were relatively small. For coking coal and coke, coking coal fell 0.7% and coke dipped 0.36%. Overnight in precious metals, COMEX gold rose 2.18% and COMEX silver jumped 3.07%. Domestically, SHFE gold gained 1.77% and SHFE silver climbed 2.49%. Overnight closing prices as of 6:44 AM on June 16: Macro Front Domestically: [NDRC and other departments: Launch a three-year action plan targeting energy conservation and carbon reduction upgrades in key sectors] The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and other departments decided to organize and implement a three-year action plan targeting energy conservation and carbon reduction upgrades in key sectors including steel, aluminum, cement, flat glass, oil refining, ethylene, synthetic ammonia, methanol, and coal-fired power. It was mentioned that these key industries account for large-scale, high-intensity energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions, making them the top priority for improving energy efficiency, reducing coal consumption, and lowering carbon emissions. Starting in 2026, the plan will focus on nine sectors—steel, aluminum, cement, flat glass, oil refining, ethylene, synthetic ammonia, methanol, and coal-fired power—to fully implement energy conservation and carbon reduction upgrades over three years, driving enterprises to elevate their energy and carbon efficiency levels as much as possible and significantly improve the industry's green, low-carbon development. Starting in 2028, the implementation scope is to be further expanded based on actual conditions, with additional sectors advanced progressively, and various regions can proceed in an orderly manner ahead of schedule in line with work needs. [PBOC's reverse repo delivers a net injection of 206.5 billion yuan today] The People's Bank of China conducted 425 billion yuan in seven-day reverse repo operations at an interest rate of 1.40%, unchanged from the previous day. Today, 218.5 billion yuan in reverse repo matured. US Dollar: Overnight, the US dollar index edged down 0.11% to 99.68. US asset manager PGIM holds a fringe view that the Fed will raise interest rates three times this year to cool an overheating economy, before reversing the hikes in 2027. The firm had forecast rate cuts this year as recently as April. PGIM stated the US economy is "exceptionally strong," and persistently sticky inflation requires a new approach. Given this backdrop, and with the Fed having missed its 2% target for five consecutive years, PGIM expects three rate hikes this year to bolster its credibility and anchor inflation expectations. "The rate hikes would be politically palatable for Warsh if they are characterized as 'preventive' measures to address supply-side inflation and the recent gyrations in long-term Treasuries," PGIM said. However, the firm noted it expects the Fed "to reverse these hikes relatively quickly, with three rate cuts in 2027 and one further cut in 2028, taking the terminal rate to 3.375%—below the current rate and likely close to the neutral rate." (Jin10 Data APP) Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy at UBS Global Wealth Management, said the oil price pullback following the US-Iran agreement announcement saw the Treasury market strengthen, easing pressure on the Fed to hike rates this year. "Even before the ceasefire deal, as oil prices were coming down, the two-year yield was still rising because markets were pricing in a near-100% probability of a December hike," Falconio said. "Now what's happening is oil prices are falling and markets are unwinding those rate-hike expectations. As a result, the two-year yield is starting to decline." New Fed Chairman Warsh will preside over his first interest rate decision this week. After the recent surge in crude oil prices reignited inflationary pressures, voices within the FOMC supporting rate hikes this year have been growing. Falconio said she expects the FOMC to formally drop its easing bias at this week's meeting, making the policy outlook more hawkish. However, she still believes the Fed's next move will be a cut, occurring in 2027. (Jin10 Data APP) According to CME's "FedWatch": The probability of the Fed holding rates steady in June is 98.5%, with a 1.5% chance of cumulative 25bp of cuts. For July, the probability of holding rates unchanged is 91.3%, the probability of a cumulative 25bp hike is 7.4%, and the probability of cumulative 25bp of cuts is 1.4%. (Jin10 Data APP) Data Front: Data to be released today include China's May total retail sales YoY, China's May value-added of industrial output above designated size YoY, the US weekly change in ADP employment for the week ending May 30, US May annualized housing starts, US May building permits, US May import price index MoM, the Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rate decision as of June 16, Germany's June ZEW economic sentiment index, the Eurozone's June ZEW economic sentiment index, and the Bank of Japan's target rate as of June 16. Additionally, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) will release the monthly report on residential selling prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities, and the State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on the national economic performance. The China Academy of Information and Communications Technology will convene a seminar to launch the High-Quality Token Service Capability Climbing Plan. The Reserve Bank of Australia will announce its interest rate decision, and RBA Governor Bullock will hold a monetary policy press conference. Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida will hold a monetary policy press conference, and the BOJ will announce its interest rate decision. Crude Oil: Overnight, both oil benchmarks fell, with WTI crude down 4.38% and Brent crude down 4.55%. The US and Iran simultaneously announced a ceasefire memorandum of understanding was reached, with Trump authorizing a "free and open" Strait of Hormuz and lifting the naval blockade. The formal signing ceremony is scheduled for June 19 in Switzerland. As the Trump administration nears completion of its plan to release 172 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) to ease the surge in fuel prices triggered by the Iran war, the US emergency crude oil supply has fallen to its lowest level since 1983. According to data released by the US Department of Energy (DOE) on June 15, the US SPR, established after the Arab oil embargo in the early 1970s, has dropped to a near-historic low of approximately 340 million barrels. (From Wallstreetcn APP) According to local news from Iran on the 16th, three oil tankers and two ships carrying essential Iranian goods have breached the US-imposed naval blockade. Separate reports indicated that multiple Iranian vessels successfully transited the blocked area. According to vessel-tracking data, an Iranian Very Large Crude Carrier was heading from international waters toward an Iranian port and had passed the blockade zone. A ship carrying livestock feed had also crossed the blockade and was en route to Iran. Additionally, another Iranian oil tanker fully loaded with crude has passed through the Gulf of Oman and the blockade line, heading to its export destination. (CCTV News) (Jin10 Data APP)

SMM News Flash: [Rebar] Today, export FOB prices for rebar rose slightly by about USD 2/tonne. According to market traders, inquiry activity was relatively decent, but actual transactions remained average. Some participants also noted that long steel demand in South America has been relatively stable recently, while demand in the Middle East remains weak. Regarding the US–Iran peace agreement, there has been no significant change in order flow so far, and overall market sentiment remains cautious and wait-and-see. [Billet] Today, export billet offers increased slightly by around USD 2/tonne, with prices at approximately USD 473–476/tonne FOB. Market feedback indicates that countries such as Indonesia and India are actively exporting billets, leading to intensified competition. However, domestic export price advantages are not obvious, as rising production costs are limiting steel mills’ willingness to discount, while traders are also more cautious in taking short positions. As a result, overall transaction activity remained moderate. [HRC] Today, export prices for flat steel products rose by USD 2/tonne day-on-day. Hot-rolled coil transaction prices were in the range of USD 497–506/tonne. Market inquiry activity was moderate, with no significant release of concluded deals. Recently, there have been some new inquiries for medium and heavy plate in the Middle East, with a portion of them resulting in transactions. [India] Ship-breaking scrap prices in the Alang (Gujarat) market increased by around 3 USD/tonne, with HMS (80:20) assessed at approximately 373 USD/tonne EXW. Semi-finished steel prices remained broadly stable, while finished steel saw a mild correction in the previous trading session. Market sentiment in Alang stayed subdued, as vessel arrivals remained at historically low levels. Strong freight economics continued to incentivize shipowners to extend the operating life of older vessels, limiting scrap inflows. In the near term, Alang scrap prices are expected to remain supported but constrained by tight supply conditions, with further movement largely dependent on vessel arrivals and downstream steel demand. [Thailand] Galvanizing quotes in the Thai market remained stable in the short term, with import offers still around 710 USD/tonne; however, for large-volume firm orders, the market could consider offering a discount of 5-10 USD/tonne. Wire rod quotes were also relatively stable, but some traders had to push up prices by 20 USD/tonne to 570 USD/tonne due to rising costs. In terms of local market transactions, downstream end-use demand was weak, and actual deals mostly shifted to a "negotiate deal by deal" model. It is expected that in the short term, Thai wire rod and galvanizing prices will hover at highs. Whether prices can subsequently stabilize on a solid footing will mainly depend on the release of downstream firm orders and the final bargaining and concession room offered by sellers under shipment pressure. [South Korea] Facing the approaching rainy season, South Korean builders are racing against time to push forward the final “intensive rush to meet deadlines” for foundation and main structure works, and the upward momentum of finished steel prices has slowed significantly. Today, POSCO’s two core steelworks (Pohang and Gwangyang) simultaneously raised the purchase price of high-quality pig iron scraps/premium steel scrap by 15,000 won/tonne (approximately 9.93 USD/tonne), and medium and light scrap by 10,000 won/tonne (approximately 6.62 USD/tonne), mainly to prevent domestic supply from being snapped up by other EAF steel mills before the off-season arrives. POSCO had no choice but to raise buying prices against the trend to “lock in” domestic spot cargo flows.

Hoa Phat’s 2025 results marked a major step-up driven by the ramp-up of Dung Quat 2, pushing crude steel output above 11 million tons and lifting earnings through higher volumes and cost dilution despite weak global steel prices. Growth was supported by stronger HRC and downstream sales, a rising export mix, and continued domestic dominance. The year also signals a strategic shift toward higher-value products and future capacity expansion into rail and special steels.

SMM June 15 News: Metal market: As of the midday close, domestic base metals moved higher across the board. SHFE copper rose 1.35%, SHFE tin rose 4.35%. SHFE nickel rose 1.27%, SHFE aluminum rose 0.31%, SHFE zinc rose 2.37%, SHFE lead rose 1.21%. Additionally, the most-traded cast aluminum futures contract rose 0.67%, while the most-traded alumina contract edged lower. The most-traded lithium carbonate contract fell 1.8%, the most-traded silicon metal contract rose 0.29%, and the most-traded polysilicon futures contract rose 0.67%. Ferrous metals rose broadly, with iron ore up 0.39%, rebar up 0.41%, hot-rolled coil up 0.5%, and stainless steel up 1.54%. Coking coal and coke: The most-traded coking coal contract fell 1.97%, and the most-traded coke contract rose 1.06%. Overseas base metals: As of 11:38, LME metals nearly all rose. LME copper rose 0.89%, LME aluminum fell 0.17%, LME lead rose 0.56%, LME zinc rose 0.85%, LME tin rose 2.35%, LME nickel rose 1.12%. Precious metals: As of 11:38, COMEX gold rose 2.47%, COMEX silver rose 3.52%. Domestic precious metals: The most-traded SHFE gold contract rose 4.58%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract rose 7.93%. Furthermore, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures contract rose 2.67%, and the most-traded palladium futures contract rose 2.36%. As of the midday close, the most-traded Europe route container shipping futures contract fell 3.44% to 3,773.5 points. As of 11:38 on June 15, some futures midday market quotes: Spot and Fundamentals Zinc: Today, mainstream transaction prices for #0 zinc were concentrated at 24,650-24,885 yuan/mt, Shuangyan mainstream transactions were at 24,740-24,945 yuan/mt, and #1 zinc mainstream transactions were at 24,580-24,815 yuan/mt. In early trading, market quotes against SMM’s average price were at premiums of 10-30 yuan/mt, with no quotes against the futures price yet... Macro Front Domestic: [NDRC and Other Departments: Launching a Three-Year Campaign for Key Industries’ Energy-Saving and Carbon-Reducing Transformation] The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and other departments have decided to organize a three-year campaign for energy-saving and carbon-reducing transformation in key industries, including steel, aluminum, cement, flat glass, oil refining, ethylene, synthetic ammonia, methanol, and coal-fired power. It was mentioned that key industries have large-scale and high-intensity energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions, making them the top priority for improving energy efficiency, reducing coal consumption, and lowering carbon emissions. Starting from 2026, nine key industries—steel, aluminum, cement, flat glass, oil refining, ethylene, synthetic ammonia, methanol, and coal-fired power—will be the focus of a three-year initiative to fully implement energy-saving and carbon-reduction retrofits. This aims to drive enterprises to elevate their energy and carbon efficiency levels as much as possible, leading to a marked improvement in the green and low-carbon development of these industries. Beginning in 2028, the scope of implementation will be further expanded based on practical circumstances, with additional industries advanced in a phased manner. All regions may proceed in an orderly fashion as needed, based on local conditions. [PBOC Reverse Repo Injects Net 206.5 Billion Yuan Today] The PBOC conducted a 425 billion yuan 7-day reverse repo operation in the open market at an interest rate of 1.40%, unchanged from the previous day. Today, 218.5 billion yuan in reverse repos matured. US Dollar: As of 11:38, the US dollar index fell 0.27% to 99.53. Easing tensions in the Middle East led the market to scale back bets on US Fed interest rate hikes. Interest rate swaps showed traders now see a roughly 60% probability of the Fed raising rates by 25 basis points before December, down from about 80% last Friday. (Jinshi Data APP) Additionally, according to the CME "FedWatch" tool: The probability of the Fed holding interest rates steady in June is 98.5%, with a 1.5% chance of a cumulative 25-basis-point cut. The probability of holding rates steady through July is 91.3%, with a 7.4% chance of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike and a 1.4% chance of a cumulative 25-basis-point cut. (Jinshi Data APP) On the data front: US consumer confidence rebounded for the first time in four months in early June, as lower gasoline prices offered some relief to Americans grappling with surging inflation. A survey released Friday showed the University of Michigan's preliminary consumer sentiment index for June rose to 48.9 from May's record low of 44.8. Economists had expected a modest recovery to 46. Consumers anticipated prices would rise 4.6% YoY over the next year, down from 4.8% in May. They also projected costs would climb at an average annual rate of 3.4% over the next five to ten years, also below the prior month's expected increase. Although gasoline prices remain higher than pre-Ukraine war levels, the decline in recent weeks has lessened pessimism about personal finances among Americans. The report showed a notable improvement in sentiment among lower-income consumers, who typically allocate a larger share of their budgets to fuel costs. Nevertheless, against the backdrop of the Iran war and the resulting wave of inflation, overall economic sentiment remains at historically depressed levels. Survey Director Joanne Hsu stated, "While there has been some relief, gasoline prices still have a significant impact on consumers. As a result, current price levels remain broadly unacceptable to consumers and have dampened their view of the economy." (Jin10 Data APP) Data: Today will see the release of Switzerland’s May Consumer Confidence Index, the Eurozone’s April seasonally adjusted trade balance, Eurozone April industrial production MoM, Canada April wholesale sales MoM, the US June Empire State manufacturing index, US May industrial production MoM, the US June NAHB Housing Market Index, and China’s May total electricity consumption YoY (to be determined), among other data. Attention should also be paid to: ECB President Lagarde’s speech; the National Energy Administration’s release of total electricity consumption data around the 15th of each month; and the opening of the G7 summit, which runs through June 17. Crude Oil: As of 11:38, oil prices on both sides of the Atlantic fell sharply, with WTI down 5.58% and Brent down 4.76%. A US-Iran peace agreement is expected to be signed soon, easing market concerns over crude supply and putting oil prices under pressure. According to Xinhua News Agency, US President Trump stated on social media on the 14th that with the signing of the US-Iran agreement on the 19th, the Strait of Hormuz will be reopened for mine-clearing operations. Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister also indicated that an immediate and permanent halt to military operations on multiple fronts, including in Lebanon, will be announced starting tonight. Patrick DeHaan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, said the US nationwide average gasoline price fell below $4 per gallon on Sunday for the first time since April 20. He expects that in an optimistic scenario, the nationwide average price could fall below $3.75 per gallon before July 4, but the hurricane season could be a major variable in the latter half of the summer. " The coming weeks are critical—any major misstep could significantly impact the subsequent oil price trajectory." (Wall Street CN) Spot Market at a Glance: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

This week, ferrous metals experienced divergent and volatile movements. At the start of the week, the four major stock indices all closed lower. Coking coal futures showed strong performance, with the most-traded contract 2609 hitting a high of 1,486.5 yuan/mt, while ore and steel futures trended weaker. Subsequently, hit by news about Shaanxi authorities ensuring coal supply for enterprises, coupled with persistently weak steel consumption, supply-demand imbalances gradually built up, leading to a sharp decline in coking coal and coke futures. In the latter half of the week, on the one hand, news of iron ore shipments and tightening market liquidity drove a stronger performance in its futures; on the other hand, the escalation of coking coal supply tightness once again pushed up coking coal, coke, and hot-rolled coil and rebar futures prices. In the spot market, the sixth round of coke price increases was implemented mid-week......