According to SMM data, on May 20, the FOB price of Indonesian MHP nickel fell by $28/mt Ni from the previous day, while the FOB price of Indonesian MHP cobalt rose by $1/mt Co. The FOB price of Indonesian high-grade nickel matte fell by $29/mt Ni from the previous day.

According to SMM data, on May 19, the FOB price of Indonesian MHP nickel fell by $122/mt Ni from the previous day, and the FOB price of Indonesian MHP cobalt fell by $1/mt Co. The FOB price of Indonesian high-grade nickel matte fell by $217/mt Ni from the previous day.

According to SMM data, on May 15, the FOB price of Indonesian MHP nickel fell by $80/mt Ni from the previous day, while the FOB price of Indonesian MHP cobalt rose by $1/mt Co. The FOB price of Indonesian high-grade nickel matte fell by $81/mt Ni from the previous day.

SMM 10-12% high-grade NPI average price fell 4.5 yuan/nickel unit WoW to 1,146 yuan/nickel unit (ex-factory, tax included), while the Indonesian NPI FOB index average price rose 0.97 $/nickel unit WoW to 147.75 $/nickel unit. This week, the high-grade NPI market overall hovered at highs, with significant divergence between sellers and buyers. The price center shifted slightly lower amid the tug-of-war between cost support and weak demand, and overall market sentiment was subdued.

Supply Contraction Expectations Persisted, MHP and High-Grade Nickel Matte Payable Indicators Fluctuated at Highs This Week

According to SMM data, on May 15, the FOB price of Indonesian MHP nickel fell by $80/mt Ni from the previous day, while the FOB price of Indonesian MHP cobalt rose by $0/mt Co. The FOB price of Indonesian high-grade nickel matte fell by $81/mt Ni from the previous day.

According to SMM data, on May 12, the FOB price of Indonesian MHP nickel fell by $29/mt Ni from the previous day, while the FOB price of Indonesian MHP cobalt rose by $10/mt Co. The FOB price of Indonesian high-grade nickel matte fell by $30/mt Ni from the previous day.

According to SMM data, on May 11, the FOB price of Indonesian MHP nickel fell by $72/mt Ni from the previous day, while the FOB price of Indonesian MHP cobalt rose by $289/mt Co. The FOB price of Indonesian high-grade nickel matte fell by $100/mt Ni from the previous day.

[SMM Analysis: NPI Prices Rose Sharply, Market Shifted to High-Level Standoff] The average price of SMM 10-12% high-grade NPI rose 30.5 yuan/nickel unit WoW to 1,150.5 yuan/nickel unit (ex-factory, tax included), while the average Indonesian NPI FOB index price rose 3.58 $/nickel unit WoW to 146.78 $/nickel unit. This week, policies and futures drove prices steadily higher, with the NPI price center moving further up.

The MHP market was generally tight this week, with nickel and cobalt coefficients rising. Supply side, Indonesia adjusted the HPM formula, creating expectations of certain cost increases for HPAL ore, and combined with a sulphur supply deficit causing some producers to plan to cut production this month, MHP supply declined and transaction coefficients moved higher. Demand side, downstream nickel salt prices rose somewhat this week, but the risk of losses persisted. Nickel salt smelters showed relatively low acceptance of high-priced MHP, but as downstream ternary demand recovered to some extent, some producers had rigid purchasing needs, supporting the strengthening of MHP nickel coefficients. Under the influence of tight supply-demand expectations, the market is expected to hold up well in the short term. The high-grade nickel matte market was also in a pattern of weak supply and demand. Currently, high-grade nickel matte has a clear economic advantage over MHP, but on the supply side, mainstream suppliers have completed long-term contract order signing, with limited available spot cargo. On the demand side, actual consumption capacity was insufficient due to downstream production line compatibility constraints. Overall purchasing sentiment was weak, trading activity was low, and coefficients stayed stable. Sulphur market, the international sulphur market supply continued to tighten, pushing prices further higher. Middle East geopolitical tensions showed no signs of easing, with no clear timetable for the resumption of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, compounded by Turkey's export ban and Russia's ban extension, keeping the supply side continuously tight. Given that the magnitude of supply contraction far exceeded demand contraction, the strong price pattern was difficult to reverse. Sulphur prices are expected to stay high and further push up downstream sulphuric acid and new energy material costs. Continued attention is needed on geopolitical developments and the recovery of transportation channels. Nickel prices, US-Iran tensions showed signs of easing this week, and nickel prices pulled back sharply. Against the backdrop of rising MHP payables and stable high-grade nickel matte coefficients, the absolute prices of MHP and high-grade nickel matte declined along with the pullback in nickel prices. In addition, MHP cobalt prices also rose, driven by the rebound in refined cobalt prices. Overall, the intermediate product market is expected to hold up well in the short term.