This week's stainless steel futures market reflected a classic divergence: external macro headwinds drove paper weakness, while domestic spot fundamentals held firm. We break down what drove the disconnect and what to watch next.

[SMM Analysis] Raw Material Prices See Slight Correction, Stainless Steel Mill Profits Expand This week, both stainless steel production costs and prices pulled back slightly, and steel mill profits expanded accordingly. Using 304 cold-rolled as the calculation benchmark, the current raw material-based profit margin was 2.19%, while the low-level inventory raw material-based profit margin reached 3.67%. Overall industry profitability was moderate, and steel mills therefore maintained high production schedules. On the nickel-based raw material cost side, high-grade NPI prices first declined then rose this week, showing an overall slight pullback. During the week, news emerged that Indonesia planned to unify ferroalloy exports under state-owned enterprise operations. Although stainless steel scrap still held a notable cost-effectiveness advantage and steel mills had a strong desire to bargain down prices, supply uncertainty fueled a strong market sentiment to hold prices firm and hold back from selling, and prices ultimately stopped falling and stabilized. As of this Friday, mainstream high-grade NPI with a grade of 10-12% fell 4.5 yuan per nickel unit, closing at 1,140.5 yuan/nickel unit. Stainless steel scrap market, prices pulled back this week. The decline was driven by the combined impact of multiple bearish factors, including weak spot cargo performance in finished products, steel mills pushing for lower raw material prices, and downward adjustments in molten steel quotes. However, the decline was limited for the following reasons: the tight tax invoice situation was expected to ease, trading pain points were being gradually resolved, and steel mill purchase expectations rose accordingly. In addition, steel scrap held a greater cost-effectiveness advantage over NPI, and coupled with steel mills still being profitable and rigid demand remaining robust, prices were effectively supported. The overall pattern showed "weakening spot cargo, cost support, and recovering expectations," and short-term prices were expected to fluctuate in tandem with finished products, with limited downside room. As of this Friday, mainstream 30 in the Shanghai area...

[SMM Chrome Daily Review: Steel Tender Bids at Flat Prices, Market Running Stable for Now ] May 22, 2026: The ferrochrome and chrome ore market experienced slight fluctuations...

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] SS Futures Fluctuated Downward, Stainless Steel Spot Prices Held Steady SMM, May 22: SS futures were in the doldrums. The new US Fed chairman officially took office today, and combined with the continued release of hawkish remarks from the US Fed recently, non-ferrous metal futures weakened overall today. SS also pulled back slightly following the trend. As of the close, the most-traded SS contract was quoted at 14,745 yuan/mt. On the spot market side, although SS futures were weak, the overall decline was limited. Spot prices mostly remained stable, with end-users mainly making just-in-time procurement, and intraday transactions were steady. The most-traded SS futures contract pulled back. At 10:15 AM, SS2605 was quoted at 14,800 yuan/mt, down 30 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in the Wuxi area were in the range of 370-770 yuan/mt. In the spot market, the average price of cold-rolled 201/2B coils in Wuxi held steady; for cold-rolled trimmed-edge 304/2B coils, Wuxi held steady, and the average price in Foshan held steady; cold-rolled 316L/2B coils in Wuxi held steady; hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coils were quoted steady in Wuxi; cold-rolled 430/2B coils in both Wuxi and Foshan held steady. This week, the stainless steel market saw both futures and spot prices fluctuate steadily. Futures movements were mainly driven by industry news expectations, with limited overall fluctuations. Market sentiment was divided—traders held a weak sentiment, but end-user just-in-time procurement remained resilient. Combined with active shipments from traders, market supply continued to be depleted, presenting an overall pattern of news providing a floor, rigid demand offering support, and fundamentals under pressure. On the futures side, this week SS...

[SMM Chrome Daily Review: Market Weakness Hard to Reverse, Overall Expectations Pessimistic] May 21, 2026: The ferrochrome and chrome ore market fluctuated slightly...

News release on May 20, 2026: According to China Customs statistics, China's total imports of high-carbon ferrochrome reached 145,100 tons in April 2026, up 6.2% month-on-month and down 42.78% year-on-year.

[SMM Chrome Daily Review: As Steel Tender Bidding Period Approaches, Chrome Market Largely Adopts Wait-and-See Stance] May 18, 2026: The ferrochrome and chrome ore market experienced slight fluctuations...

[SMM Chrome Daily Review: Strong Wait-and-See Sentiment, Market in the Doldrums] May 15, 2026: The ferrochrome and chrome ore market experienced minor fluctuations...

[SMM Analysis] Macro Sentiment Weighed on Futures, Stainless Steel Profits Narrowed Amid Raw Material Divergence Stainless steel production costs pulled back this week, and steel mill profits narrowed, with profit divergence driven by differing raw material inventory costs. Using 304 cold-rolled as the calculation benchmark, the profit margin based on current raw material costs was 1.87%, while the profit margin based on low-level inventory raw material costs was 4.48%. Overall industry profitability remained moderate, steel mills maintained high production schedules, and operating rates stayed stable. Nickel-based raw material costs: Nickel-based raw material prices came under pressure this week, largely driven by futures sentiment. SHFE nickel and stainless steel futures declined consecutively, pulling high-grade NPI market prices down in tandem. However, cost support in the NPI industry remained strong, with widespread firm-pricing sentiment across the market. Additionally, high-grade NPI sources with higher nickel content were scarce within the industry, resulting in structural price divergence in NPI, with prices for high-grade NPI above 12% grade remaining firm. As of this Friday, mainstream 10-12% grade high-grade NPI fell 6 yuan per nickel unit, closing at 1,145 yuan/nickel unit. Stainless steel scrap market: Stainless steel scrap prices pulled back this week. SS futures trended weaker, dragging spot prices lower in tandem. Although high-grade NPI also declined, the drop was limited, highlighting the cost advantage of stainless steel scrap. Steel mill smelting profits remained moderate, production schedules stayed high, and procurement demand remained solid. The overall picture showed "weak futures, resilient raw materials...

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] Macro Disturbances Dragged SS Futures Lower; Low Inventory Pressure and Rigid Demand Supported Stainless Steel Spot Prices SMM, May 15 — SS futures continued to be in the doldrums. Non-ferrous metal futures extended the previous day's decline, and SS also fluctuated downward in tandem. As of the morning close, the most-traded SS contract was quoted at 14,825 yuan/mt. Spot market side, dragged by the persistently weak SS futures, stainless steel spot prices pulled back in tandem. However, stainless steel social inventory has been on an overall downward trend recently, and traders faced relatively small shipment pressure. Market confidence remained stable, and price declines were relatively limited. The most-traded SS contract fell and pulled back. At 10:15 AM, SS2605 was quoted at 14,890 yuan/mt, down 60 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in the Wuxi area were in the range of 380-680 yuan/mt. In the spot market, the average price of cold-rolled 201/2B coils in Wuxi remained flat; for cold-rolled untrimmed 304/2B coils, the average price in Wuxi fell 100 yuan/mt, and the average price in Foshan fell 100 yuan/mt; cold-rolled 316L/2B coils in the Wuxi area held steady; hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coils were quoted stable in Wuxi; cold-rolled 430/2B coils in both Wuxi and Foshan held steady. The stainless steel market was dragged by the weak and volatile futures, with notable downward pressure, but overall spot price declines remained limited, highlighting the divergence between futures and spot. Downstream end-users adopted a cautious wait-and-see stance due to macro uncertainties, with no concentrated restocking observed. However, rigid demand purchases remained solid, and the resilience of rigid demand provided a foundation for spot prices...