Price Performance: Last week, nickel sulphate prices rebounded, with the transaction range between 31,000-31,500 yuan/mt.

Refined cobalt prices rose slightly and then decreased in the week ending March 21. Production remains steady, but low smelter inventories lead to a tight supply situation. Demand in the usual high-demand season of March and April is delayed, with few market transactions, mainly driven by deliveries to the National Food and Strategic Reserves Administration. Market dynamics were initially unsettled due to a production issue but stabilized after a quick resolution, normalizing spot prices.

Firstly, global NPI capacity and output, which show a gradual increasing trend in the future. Although，in the past，Indonesia had restrictive new production lines, but for declared production lines can be continue. Second, although NPI balance expected to be in a large surplus, the actual surplus may not be as large as expected, the main reason is that when a commodity is excess, the company will Slowdown the production.

SMM will be holding our FREE webinar “Unveiling the Shifting Dynamics of the Global Nickel Market: Insights from Indonesia's Conference and Beyond” at 4-5 PM, Wednesday, 13th March 2024 (Beijing time).

High nickel matte will increase the volume fast, and MHP will increase the volume fast as well in the future

As NPI is the main raw material of 300-series stainless steel, the fluctuation of the stainless steel market is normally closely related to the change of price for nickel, which is produced with traditional pyrometallurgy.

At the 2023 SMM Indonesia Nickel and Cobalt Industry Chain Conference hosted by SMM in Jakarta, Indonesia, Shirley Wang, GM of SMM New Energy Research Department shared her view on the forecast of supply and demand of the global nickel-cobalt market.

China imported 129,000 mt of hydrometallurgical intermediate nickel products in March, an increase of 13% MoM, which is equivalent to 24,600 mt in Ni content, up 10% MoM. From January to March, a total of 318,900 mt of intermediate products were imported, which is equivalent to about 24,600 mt in Ni content (SMM data is calculated based on wet metric tonne, and the figure may be lower than the actual reading considering the import declaration differences).

Indonesian NPI output stood at 110,700 mt in April, up 13.36% month-on-month and up 17.7% year-on-year. Output from January to April totalled 415,300 mt in Ni content, up 19.3% year-on-year. In April, the problem of power equipment construction in some factories in Indonesia was resolved, and the domestic and overseas demand for stainless steel has recovered. These, combined with a shortage of stainless steel scrap, boosted the demand for NPI. Therefore, the NPI plants were incentivised to step up production.

SMM data showed that China’s copper cathode output stood at 970,000 mt in April 2023, up 18,600 mt or 2% from the previous month and 17.2% from the same period in 2022.