Capacity-wise, according to incomplete statistics, China’s alkaline electrolyzer market stands at 43.77 GW, and the PEM electrolyzer market at 2.7 GW. This week, no offline delivery information was publicly available. Project-related updates: Jiyuan (Siping) Green Energy Co., Ltd.: SPIC Green Energy issued the termination announcement for the centralized tender of the 12th batch of infrastructure projects in 2026. The D12-01 Biochar Preparation Unit EPC General Contracting Section under the subsidiary Lishu Wind and Solar-Based Green Hydrogen Coupled with Biomass Green Methanol Project has been officially terminated. The reason cited was notification from the bid inviter, without disclosure of details such as project adjustments or plan changes. It is understood that this section planned to build a new biochar preparation unit with an annual capacity of 240,000 mt, adopting an end-to-end EPC general contracting model covering supporting systems including biomass pretreatment, drying, torrefaction, and cooling, as well as a carbon shaping core system, heat supply, conveying, civil works, and intelligentization. Huawang (Qingdao) Hydrogen Technology Group Co., Ltd.: Re-tender announcement for the general contracting of the hydrogen purification station project at the Hydrogen Industrial Park. The project is located in Dongjiakou Chemical Park, Huangdao District, Qingdao, with a total investment of 46.2968 million yuan, an engineering cost of 27 million yuan, a maximum bid ceiling of 26.8 million yuan, and a design fee ceiling of 200,000 yuan. The site covers 720 m² and includes one 5,000 Nm³/h PSA purification unit for upgrading hydrogen-rich tail gas, designed to produce over 3,600 mt/year of high-purity hydrogen with a purity ≥ 99.999%, meeting China’s national standards for vehicle-grade hydrogen. Guohua (Ningxia) New Energy Co., Ltd.: Open tender for the PC construction general contracting of the integrated hydrogen production portion of the Solar-Storage-Hybrid Off-Grid Hydrogen Production Key Technology Research and Demonstration Project. The project is located south of the Qingshuiying hydrogen production station in Ningdong Town, covering about 33 mu, with utilities relying on the existing hydrogen station. It plans six hydrogen production trains — Train E is a 1,000 Nm³/h hybrid pilot unit; Trains F through J consist of five new hydrogen production systems each rated at 1,000 Nm³/h (maximum operating load 1,200 Nm³/h), each paired with an 800 Nm³/h alkaline electrolyzer, a 200 Nm³/h PEM electrolyzer, and purification equipment, achieving hydrogen purity of 99.999%. China Coal Green Energy (Ordos) Energy Technology Co., Ltd. : The prequalification results for the basic design of the first-phase hydrogen-ammonia project and supporting utilities of the Uxin Banner Wind and Solar-Based Hydrogen-to-Ammonia Integrated Project have been published. Wuhuan Engineering Co., Ltd. ranked first with a bid price of 1.698 million yuan. Goldwind Green Hydrogen Technology (Xing’an League) Co., Ltd. : The Xing’an League Goldwind Science & Technology Wind-to-Hydrogen (Phase III) Project has released its first environmental impact assessment public notice. The project is located in the Xing'an League Economic and Technological Development Zone, an expansion project with a hydrogen production capacity of 160,000 Nm³/h. It is being constructed in three phases: the first and second phases each have a hydrogen production capacity of 32,000 Nm³/h, and upon completion of the third phase, total self-owned green hydrogen capacity will reach 224,000 Nm³/h, with an additional 56,000 Nm³/h of green hydrogen purchased externally. The supporting green methanol project has a combined capacity of 1.575 million mt across the three phases. Pre-construction work is currently progressing in an orderly manner. Guohua (Rudong) New Energy Co., Ltd.: The solar-hydrogen-energy storage integrated project has been fully completed and put into operation. It is the largest project of its kind in China and a key national PV base project, integrating PV, energy storage, and green electricity hydrogen production facilities to build a complete green electricity industry chain. The project generates 468 million kWh of electricity annually, sufficient to meet the power needs of nearly 200,000 households, and reduces carbon dioxide emissions by more than 300,000 mt per year. The energy storage system supports stable grid operation and enhances new energy consumption levels. The project produces 482 mt of high-purity green hydrogen annually, achieving zero-carbon production, with the green hydrogen supplied directly to the Yangtze River Delta region. The entire system has been commissioned and all indicators meet the standards. CSSC (Handan) Peric Hydrogen Technologies Co., Ltd.: The Shuangyashan Jixian electrolyzer project has completed filing. It is invested and constructed by Heilongjiang Hai Rui Ke Energy Technology Co., Ltd. The project is located in Jixian County, Shuangyashan City, with a total investment of 612 million yuan, including fixed asset investment of 238.7 million yuan, and a construction period of two years. It is planned to build a new production line with an annual output of 500 sets of 1,000 Nm³/h alkaline electrolyzers and complete hydrogen production equipment, with a total capacity of 2.5 GW. The project covers an area of 63.23 mu, where factory buildings, office buildings, and supporting facilities will be constructed, and equipment such as CNC machining, welding, assembly, and detection equipment will be procured. Junrui Green Hydrogen (Alxa League) Energy Co., Ltd.: A change announcement for the winning bid result of the first phase of the 14,400 mt/year green hydrogen base project in the Alxa High-tech Zone has been released. The original first-ranked winning candidate, a consortium led by Xinjiang Xingyu Construction Engineering Co., Ltd., failed to collect the bid acceptance notice within the specified time as required. According to the tender document provisions, this is deemed an automatic forfeiture of the winning qualification. After this change, the second-ranked winning candidate, a consortium led by Guangxi Construction Engineering Group No.4 Construction Engineering Co., Ltd., becomes the project's winning bidder. The winning bid amount is 915,185,806.17 yuan, and the project duration is 18 months (549 calendar days). The project had previously completed the public announcement of winning candidates and the release of the initial winning bid result in April. China Coal Green Energy (Ordos) Energy Technology Co., Ltd. : The winning bid result for the design and survey services of the first phase of China Coal Green Energy (Ordos) Uxin Banner wind-solar hydrogen production and ammonia synthesis integrated project's hydrogen production, storage, and transportation engineering has been announced. China Power Engineering Consulting Group North China Electric Power Design Institute Co., Ltd. won the bid for 4.75 million yuan. The project is located in Uxin Banner, Ordos. Phase I will construct large-scale electrolytic water-based hydrogen production equipment, spherical tanks, and solid-state hydrogen storage facilities, with a total hydrogen storage capacity of 308,000 Nm³, accompanied by supporting systems for hydrogen transport and automatic control. The project encompasses the entire industry chain of wind and solar power generation, hydrogen production and storage, and ammonia synthesis. Gansu Huanshui Energy Chemical Co., Ltd. : Gansu Huanshui Energy Chemical issued the tender announcement for the EPC contract of electrolytic hydrogen production supporting the Huadian flexible ammonia project, a key project under the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT). Located in the Tianshui Chemical Park, Huan County, Qingyang, Gansu, the project covers an area of 524.43 mu. It will construct new facilities for sodium chloride electrolysis and mercury-free polyethylene and related supporting infrastructure, with a total investment of 2.6112 billion yuan. Relying on green electricity for production, it will produce 31.50 million Nm³ of hydrogen annually, primarily supplying the flexible ammonia project. The construction period is 24 months, and consortium bids are allowed, with a maximum of 4 members; the lead partner must possess construction qualifications. Sinopec Xinxing Xinjiang Green Hydrogen New Energy Co., Ltd. : The candidate for the general construction contracting (Section 1) of the new-type electrolyzer industrial application demonstration project was announced, with Sinopec Henan Oil Construction Engineering Co., Ltd. ranking first. The project will build multiple electrolyzer testing platforms, along with supporting civil engineering, substation, automatic control, and fire protection facilities, covering construction, material procurement, and subsequent maintenance and related work. Zhongxiang Fuguang Energy Technology Co., Ltd.: The integrated energy project coupling green electricity-based hydrogen production with CO₂ capture has been filed in Zhongxiang city, Jingmen, Hubei. With a total investment of 2.8 billion yuan, the project focuses on green hydrogen preparation, direct air carbon capture, and green fuel synthesis. Once completed, it is expected to produce 10,000 mt of green hydrogen, 10,000 mt of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), and 150,000 mt of China VI standard diesel annually, with construction scheduled to start in February 2027. The project site is in Zhongxiang city, planned to lease 1,000 mu of land, and will construct 260,000 m² of new factory buildings, a 20,000 m² standardized hydrogen storage yard, and supporting auxiliary facilities, procuring 216 units (sets) of core equipment including electrolyzers, storage tanks, and control systems. Shanghai Yiwei Industrial Technology Co., Ltd.: won the bid for the general contracting project of the 1500Nm³/h integrated biomethane-based hydrogen production and refueling station in Pinggu Mafang for Beijing Gas. This project is Pinggu's first integrated hydrogen production and refueling demonstration project and a key demonstration project for Beijing Gas to promote green energy transition. The project is configured with three Hysail-500Nm³/h containerized hydrogen generators, with a total production capacity of 1500Nm³/h. Leveraging biomethane-based hydrogen production technology, it creates a model of 'on-site production, immediate refueling, and nearby consumption,' yielding 99.999% high-purity hydrogen compliant with the GB/T37244-2018 national standard for vehicle hydrogen. Once completed, it will become a critical hub for hydrogen energy supply in eastern Beijing. Policy Review 1. The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and other departments issued a notice on printing and distributing the "Guidelines for Accounting Non-Fossil Energy Electricity Consumption (Trial)". The content pointed out the need to strengthen alignment with energy statistics and carbon emission accounting systems, holistically consider factors such as physical connections, electricity energy trading, and green electricity certificate trading, and clearly categorize the rules for recognizing non-fossil energy electricity consumption and the accounting methods for users at the province (autonomous region, municipality directly under the central government; the same hereinafter) and city (prefectural) levels. Recognition methods for non-fossil energy electricity consumption: Physical Recognition. Self-generated and self-consumed non-fossil energy electricity and self-consumed electricity from new business models like direct green electricity connections are recognized as the electricity user's non-fossil energy electricity consumption. Electricity consumed for the production of non-fossil energy power generation projects is recognized as the generation enterprise's non-fossil energy electricity consumption. Transaction Recognition, encompassing electricity energy trading (including conventional non-fossil energy electricity trading, green electricity trading, etc.; the same hereinafter) and green certificate trading (including green certificate transfers, etc.; the same hereinafter). 2. The Energy Bureau of Jilin Province and the Development and Reform Commission of Jilin Province jointly issued the notice on the "Implementation Plan for Accelerating the Integrated and Converged Development of New Energy in Jilin Province". Overall goal: By 2030, integrated and converged development shall become a major approach for new energy expansion in the province, with new scenarios featuring integration and convergence emerging continuously. The province's new energy development model will become more flexible, consumption channels more diverse, application scenarios richer, and the electricity market more dynamic, with over 50 new integrated application projects and scenarios being newly established, strongly supporting the comprehensive green transformation of the province's economic and social development. 3. The Administration for Market Regulation of Guangdong Province issued a notice soliciting opinions on the provincial local standard "Operational Specifications for Integrated Hydrogen Production, Storage, and Refueling Equipment (Draft for Review)". The document states that this standard specifies the basic requirements, personnel management, equipment and facility management, hydrogen quality management, refueling operation management, safety management, archive management, and data recording for the operation of integrated hydrogen production, storage, and refueling equipment. Corporate Dynamics Guohong Hydrogen Energy Technology (Jiaxing) Co., Ltd. : Hydrogen heavy-duty trucks from Hongjing Logistics, equipped with Guohong Hydrogen Energy fuel cell systems, officially commenced commercial operation in Xinjiang. The first batch of vehicles departed fully loaded with coke from the Yongxin Coal Chemical Plant in Fukang city, traveling 130 km one way to arrive at the Urumqi Bayi Steel Plant. Beijing Future Hydrogen Energy Technology Co., Ltd. : drafted and released the group standard "Long-term Stability Assessment Method for AEM Water Electrolysis Hydrogen Production Membrane Materials"(T/CIET 2226-2026). Hubei Inteli Electric Co., Ltd. : has seen its cumulative hydrogen project performance in the European export market exceed 1GW. It previously secured contracts to supply 38 units of 4000 Nm³ (alkaline) hydrogen production power supply equipment for a green hydrogen green steel project and 50MW megawatt-class IGBT PWM hydrogen production power supplies for a petrochemical enterprise in Greece. Sungrow Hydrogen Energy Technology Co., Ltd. : won the bid for the green hydrogen coupling coal chemical section of the first-phase project of the 600,000 kW off-grid renewable energy-based hydrogen production project in the Pingshuo coal mining subsidence area of China Coal Group, becoming the primary supplier of alkaline electrolyzer packages for this project with a 48MW scale. The project adopts a pure off-grid hydrogen production technology route, relying on PV and other renewable energy sources to produce green hydrogen, which is directly supplied to coal chemical production lines. It serves as a benchmark project for low-carbon transition using wind and solar hydrogen production in the coal mining industry. According to the supply plan, Sungrow Hydrogen will provide 8 units of 1200Nm³/h electrolyzers, 2 sets of 4800Nm³/h gas-liquid separation and purification systems, along with its self-developed '4-to-1' flexible hydrogen production integrated solution, effectively enhancing the integration level of the equipment package and the long-term operational economy. The company's relevant off-grid hydrogen production package system has undergone long-term verification at a 30MW electrolytic water hydrogen production empirical base, possessing core advantages such as wide load regulation, millisecond-level power response, and long-cycle stable operation, perfectly adapting to fluctuating PV power conditions and addressing pain points in off-grid hydrogen production operations. Anscombe (Beijing) Hydrogen Energy Technology Co., Ltd.: successfully won the bid for the green hydrogen coupling coal chemical section of the first-phase project of the 600,000 kW off-grid renewable energy-based hydrogen production project in the Pingshuo coal mining subsidence area of China Coal Group. The project utilizes an off-grid hydrogen production model, preparing green hydrogen from PV renewable energy, with the hydrogen output supplied directly for coal chemical production use. This project is a core initiative of China Coal Group's 'green hydrogen + coal chemical' coupled low-carbon pathway. Its scale is leading, and the off-grid operation mode imposes extremely high technical requirements on hydrogen equipment enterprises for system integration and adaptability to fluctuating new energy conditions. According to the cooperation plan, Anscombe will supply 4 units of 1200Nm³/h electrolyzers, 1 set of 4800Nm³/h gas-liquid separation and purification system, and provide a '4-to-1' flexible hydrogen production overall solution, comprehensively matching unstable off-grid wind/solar power operating conditions. Transportation Energy Company of Yanchang Petroleum & Gas Group: The hydrogen refueling demonstration station it constructed at the Fuping Service Area (North Zone) on the G5 Beijing-Kunming Expressway has successfully achieved mechanical completion and entered the feed test phase. This station is the first hydrogen refueling demonstration station on an expressway in north-west China, with a total investment exceeding 18.30 million yuan. It is a standardized Level 3 hydrogen refueling station, designed with a daily refueling capacity of 1,000 kg, equipped with an intelligent hydrogen refueling management and control system, capable of serving hydrogen-powered heavy-duty trucks and intercity buses, improving the Shaanxi expressway hydrogen energy supply network. Ai Hydrogen Technology (Group) Co., Ltd. : signed the contract for the western China integrated solid-state hydrogen production, storage, and utilization project with the People's Government of Zhong County, Chongqing. The project will address the shortage of hydrogen sources in Chongqing and guarantee hydrogen demand for transportation and industrial users in eastern Chongqing during the '15th Five-Year Plan' period. Relying on the enterprise's proprietary magnesium-based solid-state hydrogen storage core technology, the project can solve industry challenges such as high hydrogen storage and transportation costs and insufficient safety, enabling large-scale, low-cost, and safe hydrogen storage and transport. China Power Engineering Consulting Group Co., Ltd. : The 10,000 mt-level biomass pressurized gasification pilot plant successfully completed a 72-hour continuous operation test. Industry experts witnessed that the parameters were stable, the equipment operated normally, and multiple core capabilities were verified, marking key progress in the engineering R&D of this technology. The project was led by CPEIC Zhonghe Institute, collaborating with multiple entities to systematically verify biomass pressurized gasification, operating condition optimization, and engineering scale-up aspects. Lanzhou LS Group Co., Ltd.: its self-developed 1000 Nm³ PEM electrolytic water hydrogen production system successfully passed industrial testing. The project's hydrogen production power supply was provided by Hubei Inteli Electric, featured a containerized integrated solution; the equipment completed installation and commissioning ex-factory, offering convenient deployment and strong adaptability, which can effectively shorten construction periods. Patent Applications 1. Shanghai Institute of Ceramics, Chinese Academy of Sciences (China), published patent CN2025110028, developing a ceramic-based anion exchange membrane with a laboratory-tested lifespan of 80,000 hours. 2. Johnson Matthey (UK), submitted patent WO2025109876, disclosing an Fe-Ni-Mo ternary non-precious metal catalyst formulation, with activity approaching that of platinum-based materials. Technical Footprints / Technical Specifications 1. Lei Tong, Haiwei Liang from USTC, and Liang Zhang's team from Tsinghua University proposed the Carbon Mesoporous Depth Engineering (CMDE) strategy. By utilizing hollow mesoporous carbon spheres to regulate ionomer penetration depth, it resolves the inherent contradiction between kinetic activity and oxygen mass transport in low-platinum fuel cells, developing a PtCo low-platinum catalyst that balances poisoning resistance, high mass transport, and excellent durability, achieving power, activity, and durability targets set by the US DOE at an ultra-low platinum loading of 0.1mgPt cm⁻². 2. Professor Zhizhang Li's team at Northwestern Polytechnical University innovatively constructed a three-dimensional multi-physics field coupled model for tubular solid oxide fuel cells, systematically revealing the quantitative influence rules of temperature, electrode thickness, porosity, and oxygen domain geometric parameters on battery output performance. 3. China Automotive Engineering Research Institute's National Hydrogen Energy Power Quality Inspection and Testing Center completed a 0-400 kW hydrogen-involved load-bearing three-comprehensive vibration testing platform and opened it for commercial use, addressing the gap in domestic testing for high-power, hydrogen-involved multi-physics coupling. 4. The high specific power cathode closed-cathode air-cooled stack technology developed by the team of Academician Zhongwei Chen and Associate Researcher Meng Zhang at the Dalian Institute of Chemical Physics' State Key Laboratory of Energy Catalysis and Conversion passed the scientific and technological achievement appraisal by the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Federation. This technology effectively overcomes the industry contradiction between water retention and oxygen mass transport in air-cooled fuel cells, solving technical challenges such as low-humidity performance degradation, carbon corrosion, dry membrane water flooding, and high-power thermal management. 5. Two group standards related to water electrolysis-based hydrogen production were officially released and implemented, namely "Safety Technical Specifications for Water Electrolysis Hydrogen Production" and "Economic Performance Indicator Calculation Methods for Water Electrolysis Hydrogen Production." 6. Petronor and H2SITE collaborate to advance membrane technology for hydrogen production, enhancing high-purity hydrogen in refining and low-carbon efficiency.

[Tungsten Express] SMM, June 11: The tungsten raw material prices remained sideways today, with divergence appearing across various segments of the industry chain. Spot supply of upstream tungsten concentrates was tight, as suppliers held firm on quotations with strong reluctance to sell, while downstream procurement pace slowed, leading to a significant contraction in mainstream transactions at the mine end and for APT. Tungsten powder enterprises had limited support from orders on hand and were extremely cautious in restocking, mostly producing based on sales. Amid the tug-of-war between longs and shorts across the entire industry chain, the market stagnated. Yesterday, a leading tungsten enterprise in Guangdong locked in the long-term contract price for APT at 780,000 yuan/mt, effectively stabilizing industry expectations. Currently, the trading center of the APT spot market is fluctuating around 800,000 yuan/mt, with some inventory still needing to be cleared. Short-term prices are expected to move sideways.

In May, key materials for sodium-ion batteries sustained their strong momentum, with both cathode and hard carbon anode recording sharp YoY and MoM growth. Top-tier players’ order books were full and capacity utilization rates approached their limits. On the supply side, the pattern of rising volumes and stable prices was pronounced, yet pressure to pass on rising raw material costs was also building.

SHFE issued an announcement that, in accordance with the relevant provisions of the Shanghai Futures Exchange Delivery Warehouse Management Measures and other related regulations, it decided upon deliberation to approve the expansion of the approved alumina futures warehouse capacity at the storage facility of Gansu Guotong Bulk Commodity Supply Chain Management Co., Ltd., located at No. 968, Shandanhe Street, Lanzhou New Area, Lanzhou City, Gansu Province, increasing it from the original 50,000 mt to 100,000 mt.

I. Background of China's Demand Decline ◼ In 2026, the global iron ore market is facing a critical turning point. As the Chinese government continues to strengthen steel capacity regulation and accelerate the industry's green and low-carbon transition, compounded by global trade barriers constraining export opportunities, China's steel production is expected to continue its YoY decline. As the world's largest iron ore consumer (absorbing approximately 75% of seaborne iron ore volume), China's weakening demand coincides with the supply side being about to see massive volume releases—represented by the phased commissioning of the Simandou project with a designed annual capacity of 120 million mt. With supply and demand moving in opposite directions, global iron ore prices will face significant downward pressure. Data source: SMM ◼ Against this backdrop, market attention naturally turns to the world's second-largest crude steel producer— India . As an emerging market in steel consumption, India is driven by infrastructure and real estate as its core growth engines, with downstream steel consumption growing rapidly, strongly propelling the robust development of crude steel production, with an average annual growth rate of 10.5% . Although countries such as Vietnam, Indonesia, Turkey, Mexico, and the US also maintain relatively fast development in their steel industries, over the next five years, the highest compound annual growth rate among these countries is only 5%, forming a notable gap with India. Data source: SMM II. Analysis of India's Iron Ore Supply-Demand Structure 2.1 India's Iron Ore Production Continues to Grow, but Structural Differentiation Is Evident ◼ 2.1.1 India Is Rich in Iron Ore Resources, Ranking Third Globally ◼ From a resource perspective, India is relatively rich in iron ore resources. According to the latest 2024 Iron Ore Resource Annual Report released by India's Ministry of Mines, India's iron ore resource reserves total 35.29 billion mt. Magnetite accounts for 33%, and hematite accounts for 67%. The predominant hematite resources are mainly distributed across Odisha, Goa, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand and Karnataka — these five states. Among them, Odisha in the east (production accounting for over half of the national total, grade 62%-65%) and Chhattisgarh (home to the large Bailadila mining area, with estimated total reserves of 3 billion mt and grade as high as 65%), as well as Karnataka in the south (primarily magnetite). Data source: SMM 2.1.2 India's Iron Ore Production Is Largely Concentrated in State-Owned Mines ◼ India's iron ore mining market combines state-owned and private enterprises. By company ownership, 36% of mines are controlled by state-owned enterprises, with the remaining 64% controlled by private enterprises. Representative state-owned mine enterprises include National Mineral Development Corporation (NMDC) , Steel Authority of India Limited (SAIL) , and Kudremukh Iron Ore Company (Kudremukh); representative private mine enterprises include Tata Steel Company, etc. ◼ In FY2025/26 (April 2025–March 2026), India's iron ore production is expected to reach 305–310 million mt, up approximately 7% YoY. Specifically: NMDC (state-owned producer) production reached 53.15 million mt, up 20.6% YoY; OMC production reached 40 million mt, up 11% YoY. Commercial mine production grew 15% to 190 million mt, while captive mine production declined 3% to 120 million mt. Production growth was primarily driven by commercial producers, and the supply structure is shifting, but growth is concentrated among a few large producers, meaning supply conditions are not balanced. Data source: WSA, SMM 2.1.3 India's New Iron Ore Project Capacity to Increase by 60 Million mt by 2030 ◼ Facing tight balance pressure from downstream steelmaking capacity expansion on supply and demand, industry leader NMDC is actively implementing a capacity expansion strategy. By accelerating mine development and technological upgrades, it is committed to enhancing supply-side flexibility and resilience to ensure continuous fulfillment of the widening rigid demand in the Chinese market. ◼ In addition to NMDC planning to increase capacity from 45 million mt to 67 million mt in FY2025/26, Tata Steel plans to invest 100 billion rupees (approximately $1.18 billion) over the next five years to expand mining capacity from 40 million mt to 55 million mt, and some private enterprises are also increasing iron ore capacity. Based on existing new iron ore capacity estimates, India's iron ore capacity is expected to increase by 60 million mt by 2030. Data source: SMM 2.1.4 Imbalanced Iron Ore Grade Structure — Both an Exporter and Importer ◼ According to the latest India resource report, although India has abundant iron ore reserves, the raw ore grade varies significantly. Currently, total explored reserves across India stand at 6.21 billion mt, of which high-grade iron ore accounts for 23%, medium-grade ore approximately 42%, and low-grade ore approximately 25%. Based on product classification of India's industry leaders, iron ore with grade above 60% accounts for 43% of production, while that below 60% accounts for approximately 57%, indicating that India's iron ore products are predominantly low-grade. However, India's major steel producers have high raw material requirements and prefer iron ore with grade above 60%. Therefore, iron ore below 60% grade is mainly exported to China, Japan, and other countries. The high-grade shortfall is mainly met through imports from Brazil, Oman, Australia, and other countries. Data sources: India Resources Report, WSA, SMM III. Key Constraints on India's Ability to Absorb China's Declining Iron Ore Demand 3.1 Vast Volume Gap Hard to Bridge, but Incremental Offset Can Provide a Floor ◼ In recent years, China's annual iron ore imports were approximately 1.2 billion mt, while India remains primarily an exporter, with annual exports of 23.56 million mt and imports of 12.31 million mt—its import scale being only 1% of China's. Even if India redirected all its export resources to meet its own demand, the absolute scale would still be two orders of magnitude smaller than China's demand decline. ◼ However, as China's iron ore demand declines and India's demand rises in the future, India's share in the global iron ore market will grow significantly. According to World Steel Association data, China accounted for 59% of global iron ore demand in 2025, while India accounted for only 10%; by 2030, China's share is expected to decline to 52%, while India's will rise to 15%, with particularly impressive growth momentum. The incremental demand from India will offset part of China's decline, providing a floor for iron ore prices. Data sources: WSA, SMM 3.2 Government Policies & Import Grade Restrictions Limiting Imports ◼ Based on India's iron ore import and export data, India's exports in 2025 declined 34% compared to 2024, while imports surged 129%. Despite the massive increase in imports and significant room for further growth driven by rising domestic demand, the Indian government has already introduced measures requiring priority fulfillment of domestic demand and reducing exports, which will to some extent suppress the growth potential of its iron ore imports. Meanwhile, the continued degradation of resource endowments at major global mines has intensified the structural shortage of high-grade ore, making the high-grade resources available for India's future imports relatively limited. Furthermore, as requirements for green steel production increase in and outside China, China's future demand for high-grade iron ore will also rise correspondingly, a trend that will further constrain India's iron ore import capacity. ◼ In the long run, if demand for high-grade ore continues to trigger structural tightness, the price spread between high-, medium-, and low-grade iron ore will continue to widen. Against this backdrop, India's own ore product mix may undergo significant adjustments, and its exports may continue to decline. Data sources: WSA, SMM 3.3 Green Steel Policies Driving Higher Electric Furnace Share, Iron Ore Demand Growth Under Pressure to Slow Down ◼ From a production process perspective, India's share of electric furnace steelmaking far exceeds China's, at approximately 30% in 2024. According to India's *National Steel Policy (2017)*, the country plans to raise its annual crude steel capacity to 300 million mt by FY2030 (ending March 31, 2031), with blast furnace-converter process capacity accounting for 60%-65% and electric furnace process capacity accounting for 35%-40%. As global carbon emission policies advance further, the share of green steel will increase significantly in the future, which aligns with the electric furnace capacity share target in India's National Steel Policy. Under this trend, the rising share of electric furnace steelmaking will, to some extent, curb the incremental demand for iron ore in India. Data sources: WSA, SMM IV. India's Iron Ore Demand Growth: Sufficient to Offset, Insufficient to Reverse ◼ According to the World Steel Association's forecast, global total iron ore demand is expected to maintain a modest growth trend from 2026 to 2030. China's iron ore demand is expected to decline by 8%, a reduction of approximately 113 million mt, while benefiting from continued expansion in steel production, India's total iron ore demand over the same period will grow by 55%, an increase of approximately 128 million mt. Meanwhile, based on estimates of global iron ore project capacity and commissioning pace, by 2030, approximately 300 million mt of new iron ore capacity is expected to be added globally on a cumulative basis. Overall, although India's demand growth is robust, it remains difficult to offset the large-scale supply increase on a global scale. However, the rise in India's demand can, to some extent, counteract the negative impact of declining demand from China, providing floor support for iron ore prices. ◼ In addition, as global carbon emission policies advance further, blast furnace capacity will gradually contract and crude steel production will trend downward, while the share of direct reduced iron (DRI) and electric furnace steelmaking is expected to continue rising. Against this backdrop, demand for high-grade iron ore will grow significantly in both China and India, which will further intensify the structural tightness in the high-grade ore market, thereby pushing up high-grade premiums. The price spread between high- and medium-grade iron ore is expected to widen notably in the future. Data source: SMM Data source disclaimer: Data other than publicly available information is derived by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice. Note: This article is an original article of this official account. For reprinting, whitelisting, cooperation, or other needs, please contact us. Without permission, it is prohibited to reprint, modify, use, sell, transfer, display, translate, compile, disseminate, or disclose the above content to third parties in any other form, or license third parties to use it. Otherwise, once discovered, SMM will pursue legal liability for infringement through legal means, including but not limited to demanding liability for breach of contract, return of unjust enrichment, and compensation for direct and indirect economic losses. Scan the QR code to get information for free

On May 25, luxury sports car manufacturer Ferrari officially unveiled its first all-electric vehicle, with a starting price of 550,000 euros. This electric vehicle is named "Luce." It boasts 1,035 horsepower, accelerating from 0 to 100 km/h in just 2.5 seconds, from 0 to 200 km/h in 6.8 seconds, with a top speed of 310 km/h, and a driving range exceeding 530 kilometers. The power battery system was fully self-developed by Ferrari, with a total battery pack capacity of 122 kWh and an energy density exceeding 740 Wh/L. Internally, it is equipped with NMC ternary lithium pouch cells jointly developed by Ferrari and South Korean battery company SK On, with a single cell capacity of 159 Ah.

2026 marks the first year of the 15th Five-Year Plan. Against the backdrop of intensifying global macro volatility and China’s in-depth advancement of high-quality development, the zinc industry is undergoing profound changes: tightness on the ore side and the release of smelting capacity are creating structural tensions, the divergence between domestic and international inventories reflects the complex supply-demand rebalancing, and technological innovation is emerging as a key driving force to resolve conflicts and reshape the landscape. Key areas under the 15th Five-Year Plan, such as new energy and new-type infrastructure, are injecting new momentum into traditional zinc consumption, while green, low-carbon, and circular economy models are accelerating the reshaping of industrial logic driven by technological innovation. With the joint support of upstream and downstream enterprises in the zinc industry, industry associations, and relevant stakeholders, the 2026 SMM Zinc Industry Conference , concurrently held with the 8th Hot-Dip Galvanizing Industry Development & Technology Innovation Forum, the 14th Zinc Salts, Zinc Oxide & Zinc Secondary Resources Development Forum, and the Foundry Zinc Alloy Development Forum, is about to be held in Qingdao, Shandong from August 6 to 8. Under the theme of “Converging Zinc Momentum, Building the Zinc Industry, Embarking on a New Journey”, the conference is driven by both macro perspectives and fundamental analysis, closely follows the main theme of high-quality development in the 15th Five-Year Plan, and focuses on four dimensions: macro policies, supply-demand pattern, global trade, and technological innovation. It aims to drive cost reduction and efficiency improvement through technological breakthroughs, respond to market fluctuations through collaborative innovation, and jointly paint a new blueprint for the high-quality and sustainable development of the zinc industry. Chongqing Weiyi Electric Power Co., Ltd. will be attending this grand event, discussing industry development trends with industry peers, and jointly propelling the zinc industry to new heights. Click the to register for the conference immediately, witness and participate in this extraordinary and far-reaching industry event together, and create a brilliant new chapter! Brilliant Launch Located in the shining pearl of Chongqing Liangjiang New Area—the Caijia Area of China (Chongqing) Pilot Free Trade Zone, Chongqing Weiyi Electric Power Co., Ltd. was wholly founded by Mr. Wang Zhongcheng with an investment of 20 million yuan and meticulous craftsmanship. The company is unswervingly dedicated to the power industry and committed to becoming a brilliant new star in this field. Core Businesses, Leading the Future The company has an extensive business scope covering power supply, high-end power equipment, environmental protection and energy-saving equipment, non-ferrous metals, metal products, electrical products, office supplies, and labor protection products, precisely aligning with every segment of nationally licensed operations. We are not just dealing in products; we are contributing to the power safety and sustainable development of modern society. Superior Quality, Integrity as Foundation Since its establishment, Chongqing Weiyi Electric Power Co., Ltd. has always adhered to the business philosophy of “Outstanding quality forges brilliance, and integrity wins the future” and, with the vision of becoming an industry benchmark, has gained widespread praise and high recognition from all sectors of society in the hot-dip galvanizing industry and trade sector. We deeply understand that every collaboration is a trust entrusted, and every product is a responsibility delivered. Professional Agency, Service First In the wire and cable field, we join hands with top producers in and outside China, winning the favour and trust of many major projects with excellent product quality, meticulous after-sales service, and efficient logistics distribution, including Chongqing Shapingba Phoenix Plaza, Chongqing International Airport, Chang’an Splendid City, and Chongqing Expressway Service Area. The laying of every cable bears witness to our relentless pursuit of quality and our utmost commitment to service. Non-ferrous Metals, Win-Win Cooperation In the non-ferrous metal sales field, we have established long-term and stable cooperative relationships with well-known enterprises in and outside China such as Chongqing Yuhuang Electric Power Equipment Manufacturing Co., Ltd. and Chongqing Shuntai Steel Tower Manufacturing Co., Ltd., and have successfully joined hands with industry leaders including Anhui Hongyuan Steel Tower Co., Ltd., Jiangsu Huadian Steel Tower Manufacturing Co., Ltd., Zhejiang Shengda Steel Tower Manufacturing Co., Ltd., and Jiangsu Zhenguang Steel Tower Manufacturing Co., Ltd., jointly writing a brilliant chapter of win-win cooperation. Every collaboration is the best testament to Weiyi Electric Power’s strength and reputation. New Energy Exploration, Innovation-Driven Looking ahead, Chongqing Weiyi Electric Power Co., Ltd. is actively engaging in the vast realm of new energy, focusing on cutting-edge fields such as PV and energy storage, and has submitted multiple patent applications to the National Intellectual Property Administration, PRC, leading the company’s future development with technological innovation. We firmly believe that only through continuous exploration and breakthroughs can we inject more green momentum and infinite possibilities into the power industry. Fulfilling Social Responsibilities, Demonstrating Corporate Commitment Under the leadership of the Beibei District Federation of Industry and Commerce, and with the coordinated deployment of the Caijia Chamber of Commerce, the company actively participates in visiting enterprises in difficulty. In 2024, it went to Xiushan County, Chongqing, as part of the paired poverty alleviation program coordinated by the Beibei District, purchasing agricultural and sideline specialty products from Xiushan to support the county’s development. Advancing Together, Creating Brilliance “High quality, high efficiency” is our unremitting pursuit; “walking hand in hand and advancing with you” is our sincere wish; “100% qualified products for your 100% satisfaction” is our solemn commitment to every client. Here, we warmly welcome guests from all directions to visit, conduct field trips, and discuss cooperation. Let us join hands and create an even more brilliant future for the power industry! ◆ Contact Information ◆ Wang Zhongcheng 13500344411 Long press to scan the code and register now 2026 SMM Zinc Conference

SMM May 18: Metals market: As of the midday close, domestic base metals fell across the board. SHFE copper dropped 1.47%, SHFE aluminum fell 1.22%, SHFE lead declined 0.67%, SHFE zinc lost 0.91%, SHFE tin slid 3.26%, and SHFE nickel fell 1.17%. In addition, the most-traded casting aluminum alloy futures fell 1.1%, the most-traded alumina contract dropped 0.54%, the most-traded lithium carbonate contract rose 0.12%, the most-traded silicon metal contract fell 0.82%, and the most-traded polysilicon futures declined 0.98%. Ferrous metals mostly fell. Iron ore dropped 0.99%, rebar fell 1.02%, hot-rolled coil declined 0.89%, and stainless steel lost 1.41%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 0.12%, while the most-traded coke contract fell 0.74%. Overseas base metals: as of 11:41, LME metals declined across the board. LME copper fell 0.28%, LME aluminum dropped 0.63%, LME lead lost 0.2%, LME zinc declined 0.81%, LME tin slipped 0.05%, and LME nickel fell 0.35%. Precious metals: as of 11:41, COMEX gold fell 0.59%, hitting an intraday low of $4,483.5/oz; COMEX silver dropped 3.34%. Domestic precious metals: the most-traded SHFE gold contract fell 1.61%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract declined 9.38%. In addition, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures fell 2.36%, and the most-traded palladium futures dropped 1.92%. As of the midday close, the most-traded Europe containerized freight index contract rose 3.77% to 2,590 points. As of 11:41 on May 18, midday futures quotes for selected contracts: Spot Market and Fundamentals Copper: Today in Guangdong, #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 260 yuan/mt, down 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 180 yuan/mt, down 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a premium of 110 yuan/mt, down 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 104,235 yuan/mt, down 1,515 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average price of SX-EW copper was 104,160 yuan/mt, down 1,485 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot market: Guangdong inventory increased again today... Macro Front China: [NBS: Industrial value-added output of enterprises above designated size grew 5.6% in January-April; the national economy maintained a steady and progressive development trend] From January to April, under the strong leadership of the CPC Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping at its core, all regions and departments earnestly implemented the decisions and plans of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, adhered to the general principle of seeking progress while maintaining stability, fully and faithfully applied the new development philosophy, accelerated the construction of a new development paradigm, effectively implemented more proactive and impactful macro policies, and focused on stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations. Production and supply grew steadily, market sales continued to expand, foreign trade resilience remained evident, employment and prices were generally stable, new growth drivers strengthened, and high-quality development continued to advance toward new and better outcomes. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed that from January to April, the value added of industrial enterprises above designated size nationwide grew 5.6% YoY. By three major categories, the value added of the mining industry grew 5.5% YoY, manufacturing grew 5.8%, and the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas, and water grew 4.5%. The value added of equipment manufacturing grew 8.7% YoY, and that of high-tech manufacturing grew 12.6%, which were 3.1 and 7.0 percentage points faster than the overall industrial value added above designated size, respectively. By economic type, the value added of state-owned holding enterprises grew 4.4% YoY; joint-stock enterprises grew 6.0%, foreign-invested and Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan-invested enterprises grew 3.9%; and private enterprises grew 5.2%. By product, the production of 3D printing equipment, lithium-ion batteries, and industrial robots grew 50.9%, 36.0%, and 25.7% YoY, respectively. In April, the value added of industrial enterprises above designated size nationwide grew 4.1% YoY, up 0.05% MoM. In April, the manufacturing PMI was 50.3%; the business production and operation activity expectations index was 54.5%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month. From January to March, industrial enterprises above designated size nationwide achieved total profits of 1,696 billion yuan, up 15.5% YoY. [NBS: In April, new home selling prices in first-tier cities rose MoM, while declines in second- and third-tier cities narrowed or remained the same as the previous month] NBS: In April, new home selling prices in first-tier cities rose 0.1% MoM, with the increase pulling back 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. Among them, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen rose 0.4%, 0.1%, and 0.1% respectively, while Beijing fell 0.2%. New home selling prices in second-tier cities fell 0.1% MoM, with the decline narrowing 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. New home selling prices in third-tier cities fell 0.3% MoM, with the decline the same as the previous month. Among the 70 large and medium-sized cities, 21 cities saw new home selling prices rise or remain flat MoM, an increase of 5 from the previous month. [Shenzhen property market heat continues, housing provident fund loan share rises significantly] The latest statistics showed that after the new policy, the share of housing provident fund loans rose significantly, reflecting from one perspective that the new policy precisely released rigid and improvement-oriented housing demand, market confidence strengthened, and transaction heat continued. As of May 17, citywide first-hand and second-hand residential net signings totaled 5,526 units, up 39.2% YoY. (Shenzhen Release) US dollar: As of 11:41, the US dollar index was up 0.09% at 99.34. According to the UK's Financial Times, two US Fed officials nominated by US President Trump opposed allowing Powell to serve as interim Fed chairman "without a time limit." This underscores that political divisions within the central bank are deepening as the White House continues its attacks on the US Fed. Fed Chairman Powell's second term ended on Friday. Powell was appointed as interim chairman to carry out duties before his formal successor, Warsh, completes his inauguration. Milan and Bowman, nominated by Trump to join the US Fed's Board of Governors, said in a joint statement that they supported Powell serving temporarily as interim chairman, but because the arrangement was "without a time limit," they "could not support this action." Milan cast a dissenting vote, while Bowman chose to abstain. Milan and Bowman stated that Powell's arrangement as interim chairman "should be limited to a clear and finite timeframe, at least one week," but they "could support a maximum term of one month." DoubleLine Capital CEO Gundlach said investors would not see an interest rate cut at the next US Fed policy meeting. "Previously, expectations were for two interest rate cuts this year, but the inflation market is simply not cooperating," Gundlach said. "In my view, when the two-year Treasury yield is nearly 50 basis points above the federal funds rate, it is simply impossible to cut interest rates." Gundlach said Kevin Warsh, who was just confirmed as Fed Chairman, is taking office during a "difficult period." Gundlach said: "DoubleLine's model suggests that the leading digit of the next CPI reading will be '4'." In addition, according to the CME "FedWatch": the probability of the US Fed holding rates unchanged through June is 99.2%, with a 0.8% probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point interest rate cut. The probability of the US Fed holding rates unchanged through July is 95.0%, with a 0.7% probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point interest rate cut and a 4.2% probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike. (Jin10 Data) Ed Yardeni, president and chief investment strategist at Yardeni Research, said that as investors grow increasingly concerned about inflation, the US Fed needs to keep pace with the bond market or risk losing control over borrowing costs. He noted that given the current market environment is "no longer" suited for an easing stance, the US Fed should remove its easing bias at the June meeting. "If the US Fed fails to remove this bias, investors will conclude that the US Fed is falling behind the inflation curve and will demand a higher inflation risk premium," Yardeni said. "We expect the US Fed to hold rates unchanged at the June meeting and shift to a tightening policy stance."Yardeni added that the current economic backdrop no longer justified a dovish lean, let alone interest rate cuts. On the contrary, he believed that a more hawkish Warsh than the market expected could actually benefit Trump by helping to suppress long-term Treasury yields. (Jin10 Data) Data: The US May NAHB Housing Market Index and China's April total electricity consumption YoY (TBD) were scheduled for release today. Also noteworthy: the State Council Information Office held a press conference on the national economic performance; the National Energy Administration publishes total electricity consumption data around the 15th of each month; the G7 finance ministers and central bank governors meeting was held through May 19. Crude oil: As of 11:41, oil prices in both markets rose, with WTI up 2.21% and Brent up 1.83%. US-Iran tensions escalated again, as Netanyahu spoke with Trump to "discuss the possibility of resuming military operations against Iran." Trump warned, "Time is running out for Iran, they'd better act fast or they'll get nothing. Time is of the essence!" Brown Brothers Harriman's Global Head of Market Strategy Elias Haddad noted: "The Strait of Hormuz blockade will continue to be the dominant driver for markets, as there is no clear resolution in sight, and the global oil inventory buffer is shrinking rapidly. Therefore, crude oil prices face further upside risk, which will simultaneously weigh on global bond and equity markets." (Wallstreetcn) Iraq's new Oil Minister Basim Mohammed Khudair stated at a press conference on the 16th that the country exported approximately 10 million barrels of crude oil through the Strait of Hormuz in April, far below the roughly 93 million barrels per month before the US-Israel-Iran conflict broke out. Khudair said Iraq currently plans to increase the flow through the pipeline connecting Kirkuk in Iraq to the port of Ceyhan in Turkey to boost exports. However, unless the war ends, Iraq's crude oil exports cannot return to pre-war levels. Iraq plans to engage in dialogue and cooperation with the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to enhance the country's export capacity. (Jin10 Data) In addition, Ukraine's Security Service said Ukraine struck a refinery and two oil pumping stations in Russia's Moscow region. Meanwhile, a latest opinion poll in Japan showed that amid crude oil undersupply, 70% of Japanese citizens believed the government should call for energy-saving measures. Recently, Japan's crude oil imports plummeted, and the country has released strategic petroleum reserves twice, sparking widespread concern. Kyodo News conducted a telephone survey from the 16th to the 17th, asking the public about issues including the undersupply of crude oil and its derivatives. The survey released on the 17th showed that 70.5% of respondents believe the Japanese government should call for measures to conserve energy and resources. Regarding naphtha, a key raw material for plastic production, 70.6% of respondents said they "feel uneasy" about its undersupply. (Jin10 Data) Spot market overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

The 2026 SMM Hong Kong Metals Forum , organized by Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) and sponsored by China Securities International as platinum sponsor, wrapped up successfully at Novotel Hong Kong Century on May 6. With over 300 registrations and 200 on-site attendees, the forum focused on the theme "New Metals Cycle: Prices, Power & Global Wrestling". The event featured keynote speeches by industry experts and SMM analysts, covering base metals, new energy materials, and strategic revaluation of minor and precious metals. Two high-level panel sessions were held, exploring hot topics such as geopolitics, supply-demand fluctuations, CBAM impacts, and market opportunities. It also served as an efficient platform for networking and cooperation across entire industry chains. SMM Opening Address SMM Chairman Adam Fan SMM Chairman Adam Fan stated in the opening address that it was a great honor to gather with elites from all sectors of the industry at this forum. The world is currently at a critical development period, and the exchange of industry ideas is not only an industry necessity but also an inevitable requirement for global development. Adam reviewed the century-long legacy of the London Metal Exchange, which has weathered nearly 150 years of global changes and industry evolution, fully demonstrating that although market structures may change, the fundamental need for risk management and reliable price discovery remains constant. At the same time, Adam candidly acknowledged that global markets are currently mired in a pattern of deep fluctuations. Geopolitical conflicts, supply chain fragmentation, and the compounding crises of energy and food, overlaid with de-globalization and rising trade protectionism, have intensified market uncertainty and inflationary pressures, posing severe challenges to global economic growth and industrial cooperation. Against this backdrop, SMM has steadfastly upheld its mission, refusing to be a bystander to the trend of industry fragmentation, and is committed to serving as a bridge for global industrial connectivity amid a landscape of division. SMM is dedicated to promoting dialogue and exchange, breaking down industry and regional barriers, and bringing together regulators, traders, and producers from around the world to discuss industry development. SMM upholds the principle of information transparency, continuously providing accurate, real-time market data to help the industry see through market fog and clarify market distortions. SMM deepens pragmatic cooperation by building a neutral and professional platform for exchange and matchmaking, driving all parties to pursue collaborative development based on shared interests and transcending political differences. Adam emphasized that information sharing and open collaboration would be leveraged to mitigate market risks and strengthen overall industry resilience, and called on the industry to seize the opportunity of this forum to jointly explore solutions, transforming current challenges into momentum for driving integrated and robust development of the global metals industry. Speech by Platinum Sponsor Wang Guangxue, Member of the Executive Committee of China Securities Co., Ltd. and Chairman of China Securities Futures Co., Ltd. Wang stated that as a vital bridge connecting the capital market and the real economy, China Securities has always been committed to serving the high-quality development of the metals industry. Leveraging the comprehensive financial strengths of CITIC Group, the company has built a full-chain integrated service system covering securities, futures, investment, and research. The company has been deeply engaged in the commodities sector, continuously providing forward-looking research to anticipate market trends, utilizing futures instruments to build robust risk barriers, and empowering industrial upgrading through capital services. It will fully leverage CITIC Group's full-license resource advantages and the strategic value of Hong Kong as an international financial center to continuously strengthen its cross-border comprehensive financial services capabilities. The company aims to tailor integrated risk management and asset allocation solutions at home and abroad for enterprises across the metals industry chain, precisely helping enterprises hedge against price fluctuation risks, and enabling them to operate steadily and advance with high quality in complex market environments. Structural Shifts: Rethinking Commodity Benchmarks in an Era of Persistent Inflation and Rivalry Speaker: Tian Yaxiong, Co-Head of R&D Department, China Securities Futures Tian shared professional research findings and cutting-edge market insights on hot topics including the market outlook for global metals and the deep impact of geopolitics on commodity trends. SMM Industry Analysis: Market Outlook and Pre-seminar Sharing for Base Metals and New Energy Materials (Copper, Aluminum, Nickel, Cobalt, Lithium, and Tin) & How SMM Empowers Your Commodity Trading & Analysis Speakers: Dr. Yanchen Wang, Managing Director of SMM Global UK Ltd.; Thomas Feng, Head of Industry Analysis at SMM Dr. Wang first analyzed the macroeconomic landscape. At the beginning of this year, the manufacturing PMIs of major economies performed quite well, actually exceeding 50%. Without the conflict, demand this year would have been quite strong. However, at the end of February, the US-Iran conflict broke out, and the International Monetary Fund subsequently revised down its global economic growth expectations. He pointed out that China's exports remain one of the three pillars that are still functioning well to date. Regarding automobile consumption, he noted that for the EV market, the positive factor for the auto industry also lies in exports. In Q1 this year, export performance was indeed very strong. If you look at EV exports alone, they actually grew nearly 160% YoY. Driven mainly by growth in global markets, he remains optimistic about the auto industry this year. In Europe, gasoline and diesel prices have risen significantly due to the US-Iran conflict, and EV demand is expected to benefit from this factor. He believes the power sector continues to maintain strong growth. Based on power grid and power generation investment data from the first two months, combined with State Grid Corporation of China's earlier announcement that fixed asset investment during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period is expected to reach 4 trillion yuan, this indicates that electricity demand will drive strong growth. State Grid Corporation of China will build more ultra-high voltage transmission projects, which will undoubtedly support aluminum demand and also copper demand. Aluminum: Wang noted that base metal prices experienced wild swings since the beginning of this year. He also discussed that China's aluminum smelters continued to raise operating rates due to favorable profitability; aluminum demand pulled back in Q1, and high prices drove inventory higher; approximately 950,000 mt of new aluminum smelting capacity in Indonesia may come online in 2026, with some investors watching Angola; and aluminum semis and wheel hub exports maintained growth in Q1. Copper: After copper prices experienced a pullback and adjustment in March, downstream procurement demand in China was rapidly released, providing strong support for copper prices to rebound. Copper prices rose sharply, with the market downplaying geopolitical risks. China's copper cathode demand was robust, and inventory continued to decline. China's copper scrap market was not truly facing a spot shortage issue. The outlook for copper cathode demand is positive. China remains dependent on copper concentrate imports. Spot copper concentrate TCs showed no signs of bottoming out. By-product revenue sustained smelter profits. He also analyzed the DRC sulphuric acid market conditions, the expected slowdown in global refined production growth, and how a refined market supply deficit should support higher copper prices. He also mentioned that the AI industry maintained strong development momentum, bringing new growth momentum to copper demand. Tin: He elaborated from the following perspectives: Myanmar tin production — slow recovery, upward trajectory, 2025-2027E; Indonesia tin ore RKAB quotas — expected to ease slightly in 2026; DRC — major mine production remained stable, but the M23 movement added uncertainty; global tin prices — supply determines the floor, macro factors drive fluctuations; the global tin market is expected to maintain a tight balance, with new mining capacity expected to be concentrated for release in 2028. Thomas Feng shared insights on nickel, cobalt, and lithium: emerging from the trough and entering a new cycle. ►New energy demand landscape: from EV popularization to energy storage deployment. First, he reviewed and provided an outlook on the global NEV market: NEV demand no longer maintains a one-sided high-growth trajectory, but instead exhibits characteristics of regional differentiation, structural divergence, and intensifying cyclical volatility; development paces in China, Europe, and the US have shown notable differences; performance trends of BEVs, PHEVs, and commercial vehicles have diverged; and the impact of inventory and price cycles on industry operations is increasing significantly. Second, in his review and outlook of the global energy storage market, he noted that the global energy storage market will remain concentrated in three key regions: China, the US, and Europe. Driven by 2030 climate goals, emerging markets such as the Middle East, Australia, and Southeast Asia are showing strong growth in demand for large-scale energy storage. Benefiting from cost advantages and improved safety performance, LFP battery market share is expected to continue climbing. ►Lithium: Reshaping the Supply-Demand Pattern in a New Cycle Global lithium carbonate market: shifting from overall surplus to structural tightness, with prices in a post-trough reassessment and recovery phase. Lithium hydroxide supply and demand maintained a tight balance: production on the supply side was driven by demand, the market share of ternary power batteries was squeezed, and room for growth was limited. The concentration of lithium resource supply declined, with marginal growth rates slowing down simultaneously. Significant demand growth drove the continued expansion of resource projects. ►Nickel: Navigating Policy Changes and Narrowing Oversupply Indonesia's nickel ore HPM adjustment: aimed at enhancing the economic value of non-nickel resources. The discussion covered scenario analysis of nickel ore prices following the implementation of the new policy, and the impact analysis of nickel ore benchmark price adjustments on MHP full costs. Indonesia's nickel ore RKAB quota: a tight balance is expected to set the tone for 2026. Global primary nickel is expected to remain in persistent oversupply. Regarding the logic behind refined nickel price trends, it was noted that policy and macro factors jointly amplified price fluctuations, while cost support elevated the long-term price floor. ►Cobalt: Shifting from Surplus to Shortage after the DRC Export Ban——Long-Term Uncertainty Remains Following the DRC policy announcement, cobalt product prices in China rose rapidly. However, high prices suppressed downstream demand, putting prices under pressure. Starting from H2 2025, the Chinese market continued destocking. Amid raw material shortages, enterprises began using MHP and recycled materials as production substitutes. MHP and recycling are expected to continue growing rapidly, effectively bridging the cobalt hydroxide gap. Cost pressure transmitted in both directions: LCO doping/ternary substitution restarted, and consumer cobalt demand is expected to decline by 10%. As persistently high cobalt prices suppress demand, if China secures 90% of the DRC quota, supplemented by MHP and recycling supply, inventory buildup could occur as early as 2026. Panel Discussion: Global Metals Market Outlook——Geopolitics Disruption, Macro Cycles and the Return of Commodity Volatility •Copper and Aluminum Price Rise, 2024-2026 •Precious Metals Storm: Silver Swung Wildly, Gold Hit Record Highs — Interest Rate Cycles, Safe-Haven Demand, and Industrial Logic •Precious Metals and Industrial Metals: Are Commodities Entering a New Cycle •Focus on Critical Minerals: Emerging Region Supply Rise and Policy Shifts, Green Transition Co-Shaping a New Narrative •Chinese Market: The 15th Five-Year Plan Moderator: Yanchen Wang, Managing Director, SMM Global UK Ltd. Panelists: Yahong Tian, Co-Head of R&D, CITIC Futures Henry Van, Head of Industrial Metals Analysis, Trafigura Sharon Ding, Head of China Basic Materials, UBS Justin William Hughes, Commodity Derivatives Distribution, Optiver Xie Shaobo, Head of China, Appian Mining Fund & independent non-executive Director, Zijin Gold International Panelists noted aluminum has great upside—its 10% price rise lags its 4%-5% supply contraction (vs. oil’s 60% price surge on 10% supply drop), with valuation recovery incomplete. They were more optimistic about copper demand, driven by real downstream demand rather than speculation; aluminum semis’ upside is underappreciated due to high oil prices. Long-term, copper and gold are key for mining investment, with scarce high-quality copper mines and solid gold fundamentals. They also discussed US tariffs, China’s metal demand resilience and overseas mining investment. Overseas mining success hinges on resource-to-reserve certainty; West Africa, Latin America, DRC and Zambia are new hotspots, while Australian/Canadian listed miners are undervalued. Enterprises must plan prudently based on risk tolerance. Geopolitical conflicts (e.g., Iran) may trigger energy crises, but current inflation control and China’s high metal consumption share weaken demand impact. Long-term, energy crises will boost electrification, expanding copper/aluminum demand. Investment depends on risk appetite and fundamental grasp. SMM Industry Analysis: Strategic Re-valuation of Minor Precious and Minor Metals in 2026 — The Case of Silver and Tungsten Silver: Market Supply-Demand Balance and Macroeconomic Volatility: Evolution and Shift in Industrial Demand, Particularly Driven by the PV Sector Tungsten: Strategic Status Upgrade - Supply Constraints and High-End Demand Driving the 2026 Price Rally Speaker: Juno Zhu, Senior Analyst of Minor and Precious Metals, SMM Juno shared insights on the strategic revaluation of tungsten and silver. Tungsten: Tungsten prices have surged over 500% since 2025; China holds over 50% of global tungsten reserves, contributes nearly 80% of global production, and possesses a complete industrial value chain; China's tungsten supply constraints in 2025: H1 mining quotas declined 6.45% YoY; global new project stagnation: limited capacity expansion in 2026, with ex-China mine development cycles of 3–5 years; domestic tungsten downstream applications: significant growth in cutting tools and PV tungsten wire in 2025; European market: persistent raw material shortages, with Rotterdam tungsten prices surging since February 2025; China's tungsten product exports: transitioning from primary products to deep-processed products; SMM analysis: the tungsten market supply-demand gap is expected to persist but narrow in 2026; prices are expected to consolidate at highs after overheating cools. Silver: Silver price fluctuations in 2026: an unexpected surge from Q4 2025 to Q1 2026, where frenzied investment demand and capital liquidity completely overshadowed the impact of the industrial off-season. Shift in trade dynamics in Q1 2026: SGE-LBMA premiums reversal and a surge in imports. Demand spike in Q1 2026: the PV industry started with a recovery, and an investment boom generated a phased demand peak. PV market outlook: policy shifts in 2026 are expected to curb demand growth, with overall silver consumption remaining stable. Silver demand outlook for 2026: industrial fundamentals provide support, while investment surges serve as a tactical highlight. Silver supply outlook for 2026: mild annual growth and an expanding secondary supply share are expected to drive a tight balance in the market. Market outlook: short-term trends are expected to revert to industrial fundamentals, while the medium and long-term trajectory is expected to fluctuate at highs driven by safe-haven demand. Panel Discussion: Metals in a Fragmented World: Trading Opportunities in the Age of Instability (Physical Trading and Hedging) •Shifting Liquidity Landscape across LME, CME, and SHFE •Shipping Risks and Sanctioned Metals: Implications for LME Inventory Structure •How European CBAM is Reshaping Global Metals Trade Flows •Is the Metals Market Entering an "Era of Geopolitical Risk Premiums" •Internationalization of SHFE & GFEX: Opportunities and Challenges for Global Investors Moderator: Jean Tang, Commercial Director, SMM Panelist: Anant Jatia, Founder and Chief Investment Officer, Greenland Investment Management Bella Yu, General Manager of Marketing Department, Liyang Unilink E-commerce Co., Ltd. David Wilson, Director of Commodity Strategy, BNP Paribas Duncan Hobbs, Research Director, Concord Resources Nicholas Snowdon, Head of Metals and Mining Research, Mercuria Energy Trading SA Sabrina Qian, Director of Geared broking desk, IFCHOR GALBRAITHS Anant Jatia stated: CBAM represents a major policy shift in Europe's metals sector. It is not merely about raising trade costs, but will profoundly reshape global metal trade flows and pricing logic. CBAM officially took effect in January this year, initially covering categories such as steel and aluminum semis, with its core mechanism incorporating carbon emission intensity costs into Europe's metal pricing system. High-carbon-emission producers will need to bear additional carbon allowance costs, significantly weakening their export competitiveness to Europe, while green capacity powered by clean energy will gain a clear advantage in the European market and capture greater market share. Following the policy's implementation, the landed cost of metals in the European market will rise, sustaining a long-term regional premium similar to the aluminum premium structure in the US market. Compared with the market differentiation among LME-registered brands following CBAM's implementation, what deserves more attention are the entirely new market opportunities it creates. By sourcing low-carbon, high-quality materials, market participants can potentially capture green premiums, while the mechanism will also transform metal trading models and the global trade flow landscape. The panelists also discussed the changing liquidity landscape across LME, CME, and SHFE. They noted that liquidity in the commodity market is becoming increasingly fragmented, with copper and other products now tradable across multiple global futures exchanges. Price discovery is no longer concentrated in a single market, and the traditional pattern of one market leading gains and others following has reversed, with multi-exchange rotation driving price movements becoming the norm. Factors such as geopolitical policies and tariff adjustments have given rise to regional pricing divergence, with price movements in some markets increasingly driven by capital flows and sentiment. Policy and geopolitical events have also significantly affected the spread between futures and spot prices of metals, creating opportunities for cross-market arbitrage. Meanwhile, policies related to critical minerals supply security, regional supply shocks, and geopolitical disruptions have widened the dislocation between regional fundamentals and price signals. The metals market has entered a window of structural arbitrage opportunities, and this trend is expected to persist. Cross-market arbitrage continues to provide liquidity support to exchanges, a phenomenon broadly observed across both industrial and precious metals. In addition, the panelists engaged in in-depth discussions on the differences between exchange liquidity and industrial liquidity, as well as factors influencing metal price trends, including fundamentals, geopolitical developments, energy costs, and commodity transportation costs. Opening Remarks for Coffee Break Xu Tao, CEO of CSCI In his address, Xu Tao stated that Hong Kong serves as a vital hub in the global metals pricing and trading system, playing a key role in the aggregation of LME delivery resources and the internationalization of RMB-denominated commodities. Going forward, China Securities International will continue to leverage its role as a bridge for cross-border business, deepen collaboration with CSC Futures, and provide clients at home and abroad with efficient and professional comprehensive financial services in commodities, contributing to a higher level of opening-up of China's financial markets. Networking (Coffee Break) Acknowledgments The 2026 SMM Hong Kong Metals Forum was successfully held with special thanks to the Platinum Sponsor, China Securities International, for its strong support, as well as sincere gratitude to Liyang Unilink E-commerce Co., Ltd. for its significant contribution to the forum. Going forward, China Securities and China Securities International will continue to leverage the unique geographical and resource advantages of Hong Kong as an international financial center, deepen strategic cooperation with authoritative industry platforms such as SMM, and continuously improve the "onshore + offshore" integrated bulk commodity comprehensive service system, precisely empowering enterprises to seize market opportunities and hedge operational risks, contributing professional expertise to advancing the internationalization of China's bulk commodity market and enhancing the industry's global competitiveness. Liyang Unilink E-commerce Co., Ltd. (formerly Wuxi Stainless Steel Electronic Trading Center) has been engaged in new energy materials and critical metals supply chain services for over 20 years. Through its digital platform and offline service network, the company provides upstream and downstream clients with full-process online services including price negotiation, contract signing, contract execution, payment settlement, cargo delivery, processing, quality inspection, and after-sales services. With transparent pricing, 100% fulfillment guarantee, and strict quality control, it has established stable cooperation with over 30,000 industrial clients. In the field of critical strategic metal resources, Unilink has built a supply chain service system covering 14 critical metal varieties including indium, bismuth, nickel, cobalt, and lithium. Spot delivery volumes of indium and bismuth each account for over 90% of China's consumption. For new energy materials, spot delivery volumes of nickel, cobalt, and lithium on Zhonglian Jin's platform account for 30%, 90%, and 20% of China's consumption respectively, while daily sulfur trading volume exceeds 80,000 mt. Unilink implements a service model of "payment upon delivery, cargo pick-up upon payment," effectively shortening delivery cycles, reducing enterprise operating costs, and helping upstream and downstream clients achieve stable and efficient material scheduling. Zhonglian Jin strictly adheres to national industrial policies and resource management requirements, consistently focusing on serving the real economy, fully ensuring the security and smooth operation of bulk commodity supply chains, and promoting efficient resource allocation. It has ranked among China's Top 500 Service Enterprises and China's Top 20 Growing Internet Enterprises for two consecutive years. With that, the 2026 SMM Hong Kong Metals Forum came to a successful conclusion! Thank you for your help and support for this forum~

This week, the aluminum processing industry maintained resilience, supported by export price spread incentives and domestic demand from energy storage, packaging, and other sectors. However, weak architectural profiles, expectations for PV production cuts, and the holiday effect on secondary aluminum dragged overall operating rates slightly lower, with divergence persisting across segments.