[SMM Daily Review: Rising Ore Prices Provide Strong Cost Support, High-Grade NPI Prices Were Gradually Raised] March 13 News, SMM's upstream sentiment factor for high-grade NPI was 2.92, up 0.01 MoM, while the downstream sentiment factor for high-grade NPI was 1.72, up 0.07 MoM.

Spot #1 copper cathode in North China was quoted at parity to a premium of 80 yuan/mt against the front-month contract today, with the average premium unchanged from the previous trading day at 40 yuan/mt, and the average transaction price down 155 yuan/mt from the previous trading day to 100,470 yuan/mt.

[SMM Analysis: Weak End-User Demand but Firm Costs, High-Grade NPI Prices Rose Steadily] The average SMM 10-12% high-grade NPI price rose 2.2 yuan/nickel unit WoW to 1,089.9 yuan/nickel unit (ex-factory, tax included), while the average Indonesian NPI FOB index price increased $0.39/nickel unit WoW to $138.93/nickel unit. This week, mainstream steel mills released tender prices, and the market came under brief pressure.

According to SMM data, during the week of March 9–13, 2026 , China’s stainless steel market moved into the middle phase of the traditional peak-demand season known as “Golden March,” while trading in the most-active stainless steel futures contract rolled smoothly into SS2605 . Against a backdrop of escalating geopolitical tensions and a visible turn in inventory trends, stainless steel futures continued to trade at relatively elevated levels. As of 10:15 a.m. on March 13 , the contract stood at RMB 14,275/mt (about USD 2,068/mt) , up RMB 40/mt (about USD 5.80/mt) from the previous Friday’s close. This week’s key market tension remained the mismatch between rising supply and only a modest recovery in demand. Although fundamentals have yet to show strong upward momentum, geopolitical risk premiums and persistently high raw material costs have kept downside pressure limited, preventing a broader correction from taking shape. Macro backdrop: geopolitics abroad, policy support in China At the macro level, external black swan risks and policy support in China have created a clear contrast. Iran reiterated that it would maintain the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, reinforcing safe-haven demand and pushing the US dollar index higher. That, in turn, capped upside in dollar-denominated base metals. Meanwhile, US core CPI rose 2.5% year on year in February , in line with expectations, easing immediate inflation concerns. Even so, the market remains wary of a potential surge in energy prices in March. In China, the Ministry of Finance has signaled that fiscal policy in 2026 will remain more proactive, with RMB 100 billion (about USD 14.49 billion) allocated to strengthen coordination between fiscal and financial policy, particularly in support of household consumption and private-sector investment. That measured policy support has helped improve expectations for a broader recovery in commodity demand. Inventory draw emerges, but spot demand remains cautious On the fundamentals side, the stainless market has finally reached a meaningful inflection point in destocking, although spot trading still appears underwhelming. The latest SMM data shows that social inventories fell to 998,100 mt this week from 1,016,400 mt the previous week, a decline of 18,300 mt , taking inventories back below the psychologically important 1 million mt threshold. As downstream processing plants gradually resumed operations, demand continued to recover. However, while spot transactions improved from earlier levels, trading activity still fell short of the strength typically associated with the seasonal peak. End-users have largely remained focused on buying only what they need, with little appetite for active restocking. At present, the supply increase resulting from concentrated mill restarts in March is meeting only a slow improvement in end-use demand. That still-fragile recovery continues to limit market confidence in any stronger upside breakout during the peak season. Raw material costs remain the key floor Raw material costs continued to trend higher and remain the market’s main source of downside support. With geopolitical tensions lingering and tight ore supply from Indonesia continuing to feed through the market, upstream quotations kept rising. As of March 13 , high-grade NPI moved up further to RMB 1,094.5 per nickel unit (about USD 158.61 per nickel unit) , up RMB 6.5 (about USD 0.94) from a week earlier. High-carbon ferrochrome also climbed to RMB 8,650 per 50-basis mt (about USD 1,253.50 per 50-basis mt) . As raw material prices continue to move higher, stainless mills’ production cost floors are also rising. Although downstream buyers remain resistant to expensive material, room for mills to offer discounts has narrowed sharply under the pressure of high costs and, in some cases, negative margins. As a result, cost support for both futures and spot prices has become increasingly firm. Outlook: high-level consolidation likely to continue Overall, the stainless steel market is now caught in a complex tug-of-war defined by rising supply, only a weak recovery in demand, firm cost support, and a clear turn in inventories. The safe-haven and inflation-hedging logic stemming from the Strait of Hormuz crisis, together with NPI prices approaching the 1,100 threshold, has effectively limited downside in the futures market. At the same time, subdued spot order activity has capped upside momentum. Looking ahead to next week, the market will be watching closely to see whether the destocking trend can continue. The main focus will shift to actual arrivals following mill restarts and the pace at which downstream orders improve. In the near term, the most-active stainless steel futures contract is expected to remain rangebound at relatively high levels. Market participants are advised to closely monitor geopolitical developments and nickel ore price movements, as both could trigger sudden directional swings. Written by: Bruce Chew | bruce.chew@smm.cn +601167087088

[SMM Chromium Weekly Review: Costs and Demand Jointly Drove the Market, with Strongly Bullish Sentiment] March 13, 2026: Quotations remained unchanged for the time being, and the chromium market operated steadily...

Recently, end-use consumption in the lead-acid battery market remained relatively stable, with dealers basically purchasing as needed. Meanwhile, lead prices fluctuated downward, and some dealers were concerned that battery selling prices would follow the decline. In addition, as April to May is the traditional consumption off-season, dealers were also relatively cautious in procurement, and lead-acid battery enterprises produced based on sales. In terms of lead ingot procurement, spot cargo circulating in the lead market is currently relatively ample, and downstream enterprises purchased as needed. It was not until the second half of the week, when lead prices fell further, that some enterprises restocked at lower prices as needed, and trading activity in the spot market improved.

The Indian Stainless Steel Development Association (ISSDA) has recently urged the government to permanently remove customs duties on imported scrap and ferroalloys, and to classify chromium as a critical mineral, in order to support the country’s planned expansion of stainless steel capacity from 7 million mt to 11 million mt. At the same time, ISSDA has also called for stronger measures to address the impact of low-priced Chinese products, warning that some Chinese material may be entering India through third countries such as Vietnam, thereby bypassing existing trade protection measures. These statements suggest that the Indian stainless steel industry is no longer simply asking for “growth support.” Instead, it has entered a more complex phase, where it wants to accelerate capacity expansion while also defending itself against external competition. Capacity Expansion Is Clear, and India’s Stainless Steel Industry Has Entered a Critical Phase At first glance, these may look like two conflicting policy demands. On the one hand, the industry wants lower import duties on raw materials to reduce production costs. On the other hand, it is asking the government to tighten import restrictions and strengthen trade protection. But when viewed within the broader industry cycle that India’s stainless steel sector is currently going through, these two demands are not contradictory. They are simply two sides of the same expansion cycle. For domestic stainless steel producers in India, the most important goal over the next few years is to build up local supply capacity while domestic demand is still growing. ISSDA has previously estimated that stainless steel demand in India will continue to grow by 7%–8% annually over the next two to three years. Against this backdrop, the industry wants to keep raw material costs as low as possible during the expansion phase, while also preventing low-priced imported finished products from eroding returns before local capacity expansion is complete. In other words, what worries India’s stainless steel industry most right now is not the absence of market demand, but the possibility that demand exists while the gains from expansion are undermined by imports. That is why ISSDA is simultaneously calling for the permanent removal of duties on scrap and ferroalloy imports, while also highlighting the threat posed by low-priced Chinese products. In the industry’s view, lower tariffs on raw materials would improve the competitiveness of domestic manufacturing, while stronger protection on finished products would buy time for local investment, expansion, and capacity ramp-up. This policy logic of “opening the upstream while defending the downstream” is, in essence, a typical industrial development strategy. Raw Material Security Has Become the Core Condition Behind Expansion This also reflects the industry’s growing concern over raw material supply. Scrap and ferroalloys are key inputs for stainless steel production, while chromium is a critical element in the stainless alloy system. ISSDA’s specific call to classify chromium as a critical mineral shows that its focus is no longer limited to short-term price issues, but has shifted toward medium- to long-term resource security. India has long been the world’s largest importer of stainless steel scrap. Data shows that its stainless scrap imports rose to 1.58 million mt in 2025, up significantly from 2024, further underscoring India’s continued reliance on overseas scrap supply. For a country aiming to expand stainless steel capacity from 7 million mt to 11 million mt, whether the raw material supply system can scale up in parallel will directly determine whether that expansion can actually be delivered. If import costs for scrap and ferroalloys remain high, or if chromium supply security proves insufficient, then even the most ambitious capacity plans could face rising costs, margin pressure, or slower project execution in practice. From the industry’s perspective, therefore, removing duties on imported raw materials and strengthening critical mineral management are not isolated policy demands. They are essential supporting measures for the broader expansion target. India’s stainless steel industry wants to secure the raw material base first before further releasing capacity, reflecting a deeper concern for supply chain completeness and long-term sustainability. Demand Continues to Grow, but Cheap External Supply Creates Real Pressure On the demand side, India is still seen as one of the most important growth markets for stainless steel consumption globally. With the development of manufacturing, continued infrastructure investment, and upgrading in end-use consumption, India’s stainless steel demand is expected to maintain relatively strong growth, providing a solid foundation for capacity expansion. The challenge, however, is that demand growth does not automatically mean domestic producers will benefit. If most of the incremental demand is captured by imported material, India may see consumption expand without domestic industry benefiting to the same extent. In this context, ISSDA’s concerns over Chinese oversupply spilling into India become particularly sensitive. According to media reports, ISSDA believes China has more than 8 million mt of excess stainless steel melting capacity, and that this material is seeking overseas outlets, with India standing out as one of the most attractive target markets. The reason is straightforward. On the one hand, India is itself a growth market. On the other hand, its domestic supply system is still in the process of expanding and has not yet built an unshakable market barrier, making it more exposed to external supply pressure. For Indian mills, this pressure is not only reflected in price competition, but also in investment expectations. When an industry is in the middle of an expansion phase, companies need a relatively predictable margin environment to support new investments, depreciation costs, and capacity ramp-up. If large volumes of low-priced imports continue to flow in during this period, domestic producers may struggle to convert rising demand into actual returns. The Risk of Rerouted Trade Is One of India’s Bigger Concerns Another important point in ISSDA’s latest statement is the issue of rerouted trade. The association warned that some Chinese steel products may be entering India through third countries such as Vietnam, thereby bypassing existing trade protection measures. This concern is easy to understand. In recent years, amid ongoing global trade friction and stricter origin management, practices such as third-country rerouting, supply chain detours, and origin restructuring have come under increasing scrutiny. For India, this means that even if trade protection measures exist on paper, actual import pressure may not disappear in practice. In other words, what truly concerns the industry is not simply whether tariffs or barriers exist, but whether these measures can actually work as intended. If external supply can continue entering India through more complex trade routes, then the competitive pressure facing domestic producers will not ease in any meaningful way, weakening the real impact of policy protection. India’s Core Objective Is to Turn Demand Advantage Into Industrial Advantage At a deeper level, India’s stainless steel industry is moving from a stage of demand-driven growth to one of broader industrial competition. In the past, discussion of India’s stainless steel market often focused on its consumption growth potential, including its large population base, urbanization, and manufacturing upgrade. But as consumption continues to expand, the question is no longer simply whether demand will grow, but who will ultimately capture that growth. If domestic demand keeps rising while most of the incremental market is filled by imports, India may become a major consumption market without necessarily becoming a true manufacturing powerhouse. What ISSDA is now pushing for is, in effect, the key step needed to turn India’s demand advantage into industrial advantage. That is why the industry is asking the government to lower upstream raw material costs while at the same time strengthening trade defense at the finished-product end. The underlying logic is not simply to reject imports, but to create a more supportive environment for domestic manufacturing to grow and attract investment. The Direction of Future Policy Is Worth Watching Viewed within the broader competitive landscape of the Asian stainless steel market, India’s position is actually becoming quite clear. It does not want to remain merely a consumption market. It wants to become a more complete domestic manufacturing center. That means its policy stance is likely to continue along a dual-track approach: more openness toward key raw materials, and greater caution toward finished-product imports. For the market, there are several developments worth watching. First, whether India will further reduce import duties on scrap and ferroalloys on a long-term basis, or even establish a more stable policy framework for raw material support. Second, whether chromium will be formally included in the country’s critical mineral system, thereby strengthening resource security. Third, whether India will step up anti-dumping, anti-circumvention, and origin-related scrutiny, especially against third-country rerouting paths. If these directions gradually materialize, they could reshape competition in India’s stainless steel market, alter its import structure, and even change broader resource flows across Asia. Conclusion Overall, ISSDA’s latest public stance does not simply signal another trade friction issue. It reflects the broader priorities of India’s stainless steel industry as it enters a new stage: securing raw material supply and cost competitiveness for expansion, while also preventing low-priced external supply from undermining domestic industry during a critical window. Whether India’s stainless steel story can evolve from one of consumption growth into one of manufacturing rise may depend not only on the pace of demand growth itself, but also on whether the government can build a policy mix that effectively balances resources, tariffs, and trade protection in a way that genuinely supports domestic industrial upgrading. Written by: Bruce Chew | bruce.chew@metal.com +601167087088

Dalian iron ore futures gapped higher at the open today, stayed firm in the morning session, and were in the doldrums in the afternoon. The most-traded contract, I2605, finally closed at 811.5 yuan/mt, up 2.33% from the previous trading session. Meanwhile, spot prices rose by 5-10 yuan from the previous trading day. Traders were average in offering activity, while steel mills restocked on demand, with limited inquiries. Overall transactions in the spot market were sluggish. The SMM survey showed that total iron ore inventory at 35 ports nationwide reached 155.41 million mt this week, an increase of 610,000 mt WoW, with the pace of inventory buildup improving somewhat. Meanwhile, daily average port pick-up volume reached 2.53 million mt, down 20,000 mt from the previous period. Looking ahead, the moderating pace of iron ore inventory buildup indicated that demand had begun to recover. At the same time, due to structural adjustments on the supply side, rigid demand for iron ore shifted in a concentrated manner toward certain varieties, causing localized supply deficits and thereby forming strong bottom support. Coupled with still-robust bullish sentiment, iron ore prices are expected to hold up well in the short term, as upside pressure has eased somewhat while downside support remains strong.

[Macro Disturbances Coupled With Rising China Inventory Weighed on the Centers of Both SHFE and LME This Week] At the beginning of the week, Trump stated that the conflict in Iran was basically over, and the US dollar index fell sharply, pushing the center of LME zinc higher; subsequently, market uncertainty intensified, some funds exited, and LME zinc came under pressure......

Next week, the US Fed will announce its interest rate decision and Summary of Economic Projections, and the market widely expects rates to remain unchanged. On the macro data front, key releases will include China's total retail sales YoY from January to February, China's industrial value-added of enterprises above designated size YoY from January to February, and the US February PPI YoY. In addition, Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng will lead a delegation to France from March 14 to 17 for economic and trade consultations with the US side. LME lead, markets outside China continue to be affected by developments in the Middle East, including rising natural gas prices and hindered battery transportation, constraining both the supply and demand sides of lead. Meanwhile, China's lead ingot import window opened further, attracting overseas lead ingots into the Chinese market. In Southeast Asia, for example, spot lead circulation declined and premiums rose, which may provide some support for lead prices. LME lead is expected to trade at $1,900-1,960/mt next week. SHFE lead, as the SHFE lead 2603 contract nears delivery, suppliers have been shifting inventory and shipping to delivery warehouse, leading to a continued increase in visible lead ingot inventory. Together with growing arrivals of imported lead, this dragged the overall price center lower. At the same time, losses in secondary lead widened, and many smelters cut production or postponed the resumption of operations, while smelters' in-factory inventory declined. In the short term, bullish and bearish factors are intertwined. After the bearish impact of inventory buildup from delivery warehouse shipments is fully absorbed, attention should be paid to the possibility of lead prices stabilizing. The most-traded SHFE lead contract is expected to trade at 16,400-16,850 yuan/mt next week. Spot price forecast: 16,350-16,650 yuan/mt. On the consumption side, downstream enterprises maintained stable production, and as lead prices fell, producers will gradually buy the dip. Supply side, production at primary lead and secondary lead enterprises is gradually recovering, while inventory pressure from enterprises' in-factory inventory eased. In addition, given the prominent losses in secondary lead, even with supplementary imported crude lead, spot discounts for primary lead and secondary lead are unlikely to widen further and may instead narrow as lead prices weaken.