The most-traded HRC futures contract closed at 3,327 today, down 0.27% for the day. In the spot market, HRC prices fell by 10-20 yuan/mt, cold-rolled coil prices remained stable, and overall trading was moderate. Supply side, according to SMM statistics, the impact from hot rolling maintenance this week was 78,100 mt, flat WoW; next week's impact from hot rolling maintenance is expected to be 23,100 mt, down 55,000 mt WoW from this week. HRC supply remained unchanged this week, and subsequent supply is expected to increase. Demand side, sheet & plate demand today was mainly characterized by just-in-time procurement, without significant demand release. Going forward, demand continued to weaken, fundamental pressures gradually emerged, and sheet & plate prices were suppressed. However, the market still has expectations for the ninth round of coke price increases. In the short term, sheet & plate prices are expected to be in the doldrums supported by costs.

[SMM Analysis] Overseas HRC prices Declined More Than Chinese Prices; Overall Procurement Demand Continued to Weaken Passive Contraction in China–Foreign HRC Price Spreads and Blocked Export Channels Price spread models showed entirely diverging trends. Steel billet price spreads were relatively stable, while HRC spreads continued to contract. The China–India HRC spread, after a streak of declines in mid-June, recently plunged to -36, an all-time low in the table. This figure was not only far above the quarterly average of -65, but also well below the current monthly average of -49. The root cause is not a sharp slide in Chinese export prices, but rather extremely weak Indian domestic demand. To defend their domestic market share and digest surplus production, local steel mills in India adopted a highly aggressive "defensive price-slashing" strategy. Meanwhile, given the domestic supply-demand pattern of strong supply and weak demand, there is still room for further downside in Indian domestic steel prices in the near term, and the China–India spread will hover at lows. Data source: SMM Monsoon Rains Suppressed Downstream Demand; Indian Steel Market Was in the Doldrums Weighed down by the traditional demand off-season due to the monsoon rainy season and generally very cautious purchasing attitudes among buyers, Indian long steel prices remained under pressure last week. Rebar EXW prices dropped notably to around $630/mt EXW, hitting the lowest level since May. In contrast, Raipur billet showed slightly more resilience, with prices edging up about $2/mt to around $453/mt EXW. This was mainly supported by a boost from earlier transactions and short-term support from buoyant sentiment in surrounding markets, though current spot procurement remained cautious and restrained. Notably, Chhattisgarh has planned to raise electricity prices, which is expected to push up the production cost of electric furnace billet by about $3–4/mt starting in July, providing some cost support. Overall, the Indian steel market will continue to face a mix of weak demand and cost support in the near term, and prices are expected to remain on a weak fluctuating trend. Off-Season Suppressed Rigid Demand and Shipping Disrupted: Southeast Asian Steel Market Stayed in the Doldrums Short-Term Due to seasonal factors, construction activity rates in core Southeast Asian countries such as Vietnam, the Philippines, Indonesia, and Thailand have recently been low, directly limiting the release of rigid demand for long products like rebar and wire rod. Currently, major local mills' rebar EXW prices in Southeast Asia were generally weak, ranging between $520–535/mt EXW. Meanwhile, due to persistently subdued sentiment in end-user buying, destocking in the market remained relatively slow. Facing the current weak market, most buyers chose to wait and see, with purchasing strategies mostly centered on "purchasing as needed and buying just enough for immediate use." Additionally, stimulated by progress in US–Iran negotiations and news that the Strait of Hormuz may reopen, buyers in the Southeast Asian market grew more expectant of a pullback in ocean freight rates. Driven by the desire to "rush to buy amid continuous price rise and hold back amid price downturn," this expectation further amplified the market's bearish and wait-and-see sentiment. Still, the actual easing of shipping pressures stemming from geopolitical issues will take some time, and international freight rates are expected to remain mainly high and volatile in the short term. New Quotas Taking Effect on 1 July Prompted Full Buyer Wait-and-See; European HRC Trading Mediocre, Import Offers Weakened MoM Last week, the overall European steel market was relatively mediocre, with sellers and buyers locked in deep standoffs ahead of the policy window period, and both spot and import markets were subdued: In Germany, mainstream transaction prices for HRC with August–September delivery remained at €680–700/mt EXW. In Italy, mainstream transaction prices for HRC with July–August delivery were at €670–680/mt EXW. Most European buyers generally chose to refrain from booking and are fully waiting for the new import quota system that will officially take effect on 1 July. End-users and traders are eager to assess the actual restrictive impact of the new policy on future import volumes in order to readjust their procurement strategies. At the same time, hit by a double blow from sluggish European domestic demand and uncertainty over the quota policy, steel import activity in Europe also dropped to a freezing point. At present, HRC offers for August shipment from Turkey and Asia to Europe have pulled back to €640–650/mt DDP. With a lack of buyer support, overseas mills' forward export offers showed clear signs of weakening on a MoM basis. Copyright and Intellectual Property Statement: This report is independently created or compiled by SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "SMM"), and SMM legally enjoys complete copyright and related intellectual property rights. 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HRC futures prices were in the doldrums today, with the most-traded contract closing at 3371, down 0.47%. In the spot market, sheet and plate spot prices in most regions were either in the doldrums or saw slight corrections intraday. From a fundamental perspective, raw material price trends have seen intensified volatility recently. Today, Singapore iron ore futures prices dipped below the 100 mark again for the first time in more than three months. For steel, given the frequent rainy weather in east and south China recently, the off-season impact on the market has deepened, and demand drivers remain limited. Sheet and plate prices are expected to move sideways in the near term, with downside for the most-traded HRC contract eyed at 3,330-3,350.

HRC futures prices were in the doldrums today, with the most-traded contract closing at 3,382, up 0.29%. In the spot market, spot HRC prices saw a slight correction in many regions during the day, while cold galvanized prices were largely stable. On the news front, Zhangjiagang HRC inventory this week was 271,000 mt, down 2,000 mt WoW, a 0.73% decline. The pace of inventory decline in Zhangjiagang slowed WoW, with destocking gradually slowing recently due to weakening downstream demand. From a fundamental perspective, HRC inventory is expected to continue destocking this week. The accumulation of supply-demand imbalance in sheets & plates is limited. The market will likely follow raw material prices to trade sideways this week, awaiting inventory turning to build or a drop in hot metal output to trigger a supply-demand imbalance in raw materials.

Hoa Phat’s 2025 results marked a major step-up driven by the ramp-up of Dung Quat 2, pushing crude steel output above 11 million tons and lifting earnings through higher volumes and cost dilution despite weak global steel prices. Growth was supported by stronger HRC and downstream sales, a rising export mix, and continued domestic dominance. The year also signals a strategic shift toward higher-value products and future capacity expansion into rail and special steels.

This week, ferrous metals experienced divergent and volatile movements. At the start of the week, the four major stock indices all closed lower. Coking coal futures showed strong performance, with the most-traded contract 2609 hitting a high of 1,486.5 yuan/mt, while ore and steel futures trended weaker. Subsequently, hit by news about Shaanxi authorities ensuring coal supply for enterprises, coupled with persistently weak steel consumption, supply-demand imbalances gradually built up, leading to a sharp decline in coking coal and coke futures. In the latter half of the week, on the one hand, news of iron ore shipments and tightening market liquidity drove a stronger performance in its futures; on the other hand, the escalation of coking coal supply tightness once again pushed up coking coal, coke, and hot-rolled coil and rebar futures prices. In the spot market, the sixth round of coke price increases was implemented mid-week......

This week, HRC prices fluctuated downward. The weekly average price edged lower, and overall trading volume declined. Supply side, rolling line maintenance decreased this week, and overall HRC production edged up. Demand side, apparent demand for HRC weakened again this week, as the downstream sector entered the off-season, with high temperatures and rainfall constraining project starts. Speculative demand retreated, end-user wait-and-see sentiment intensified, and actual procurement volumes gradually declined. Inventory side, this week SMM’s nationwide 86-warehouse (large sample) HRC social inventory stood at 4.279 million mt, down 72,900 mt or 1.68% WoW. By region, inventory in the Northeast and South China markets built up WoW, while East China, North China, and Central China markets saw destocking WoW. Inventory destocking provided support to HRC prices. Cost side, the average iron ore price edged lower, and the sixth round of coke price increases was implemented, slightly strengthening cost support for HRC. Looking ahead, costs may continue to increase, but as the off-season effect deepens, the pace of HRC destocking may narrow. In the short term, HRC prices are expected to move sideways. Overall, the most-traded HRC contract is expected to trade in the 3,340-3,410 range next week.

SMM Cold Rolling Production Schedule: June Steel Mill CR Schedule Up 3%, Daily Average Schedule Up 7% According to the latest SMM tracking, the planned total volume of commercial CR products from 31 mainstream CR sheet mills this month stands at 4.2132 million mt, up 124,900 mt or 3.1% from last month's actual outpu On a daily basis, June has one fewer day than May, with the average daily CR commercial products schedule for June reaching 140,400 mt, up 6.5% MoM from last month's actual daily average output. SMM HRC Production Schedule: June HRC Production Schedule Down 0.5% MoM, Daily Average Up 3% According to the latest SMM tracking, the planned commercial HRC volume of 39 mainstream steel mills this month totals 13.2679 million mt, down 69,000 mt or 0.5% from the actual commercial HRC production last month. On a daily average basis, as June has one day less than May, the daily average commercial HRC production schedule stands at 442,300 mt, up 2.8% MoM from the actual daily average production of May. In June, as some steel mills that underwent earlier maintenance gradually resumed production, coupled with HRC profit margins being relatively better than those of rebar in most regions, the total HRC production schedule volume saw relatively small fluctuations MoM compared with the actual level in May. As June has fewer days than May, on a daily average basis, the HRC production schedule increased MoM. Summary: Total hot-rolled commercial material production schedules at steel mills in June were basically flat MoM. As June has fewer days than May, the daily average production schedule edged up MoM. Demand side, with the arrival of the off-season for steel consumption, end-use demand is expected to gradually weaken in June, and HRC inventory may see an inventory buildup inflection point in late June. Other aspects, short-term ferrous metals ore, coke, and steel price trends have diverged. As steel's own demand is under pressure, its price initiative is weak. Monitor whether there are new drivers from the raw material coal and coke side to cause finished steel prices to follow in fluctuating. HRC prices are expected to move sideways within a range in June, with limited upside and downside room.

This week, ferrous metals diverged, with coking coal and coke extending their strength, iron ore making some concessions, and finished steel moving sideways. Early in the week, rumors about coal mine safety inspections continued to swirl, and expectations of supply tightness intensified, driving coking coal to its daily limit up. Against weak supply-demand fundamentals, iron ore took a path of conceding to coking coal and coke, while finished steel edged higher in a narrow range; later in the week, data on the five major steel products were released, with HRC inventory destocking continuing, the off-season effect on construction steel demand emerging, inventory destocking narrowing, and overall inventory pressure for finished steel also beginning to slowly accumulate......

This week, cold-rolled and hot-rolled prices weakened, with overall transactions turning weaker WoW. Supply side, rolling line maintenance decreased WoW this week, reducing the impact on output, and HRC production showed an increase overall. Demand side, apparent demand edged up slightly WoW this week. Inventory side, this week, SMM’s tally of HRC social inventory across 86 warehouses nationwide stood at 4.3519 million mt, down 114,500 mt WoW, or a decline of 2.56%. By region, inventory in South China and Northeast China saw slight accumulation, while North China, East China, and Central and West China continued destocking. Cost side, coking coal and coke futures trended strongly this week. The fifth round of coke price increases was implemented, and hot metal output rebounded, supporting iron ore prices. HRC cost support was strong. Looking ahead, expectations for a sixth round of coke price increases remain, and according to SMM, hot metal output is still expected to rise further, providing demand support for iron ore. Overall, the cost side still offers support. From the perspective of HRC fundamentals, the current supply-demand imbalance has not yet accumulated to drag on prices. However, considering that downstream buyers mainly purchase as needed during the off-season, demand is unlikely to see a significant surge, capping price increases. Next week, HRC prices are expected to remain range-bound, with the most-traded HRC contract trading in the 3,340-3,420 range.