[Brazil] Higher freight offsets falling export offers as Brazil's flat-product import prices steady Brazil's flat-product import prices were broadly steady this week, as elevated ocean freight effectively offset the decline in export offers from major shipping origins. HRC and CRC import prices steadied at 590 and 700 USD/tonne CFR respectively. Recent geopolitical turbulence in the Middle East has pushed up marine fuel costs, while weak Asian demand and softer raw materials prompted Vietnamese mills to cut export offers. On the domestic front, dragged by weak downstream demand, tight credit and rising inventories, Brazil's domestic HRC ex-works prices were flat this week, with no price increase planned for August. In addition, Brazilian slab export trading also slowed this week as major exporters made internal transfers to their own plants in Europe and the United States at offers of 575-585 USD/tonne FOB.

This week, ferrous metals drifted lower overall, with iron ore and rebar leading the decline and hitting new stage lows. The core driver of the downturn was a confluence of multiple bearish factors: First, the Politburo meeting ended, and the outcome fell short of market expectations, causing sentiment support to collapse. Second, cost support collapsed in a stepwise manner. The second round of coke price cuts was quickly implemented, and the market widely expects a third round to come. Combined with hot metal output falling to a trough, global iron ore shipments staying high, and port inventories being ample, the decline in raw material prices allowed the negative feedback loop to transmit smoothly. Finally, end-use demand was seasonally sluggish, with high temperatures and rainfall dampening construction. Total inventories of ferrous metals continued to accumulate, spot transactions were sluggish, and the supply-demand imbalance persisted......

[SMM HRC Daily Trading Volume] On July 31, the combined daily HRC trading volume of sample enterprises in SMM’s four cities (Shanghai, Lecong, Tianjin, Ningbo) totaled 10,630 mt, down 50 mt, or 0.4% DoD, 11.34% YoY, and 32.72% Lunar YoY.

HRC prices weakened from the previous week, and overall transactions declined WoW. Supply side, the impact from rolling line maintenance decreased WoW, lifting overall HRC production. Demand side, apparent demand dropped WoW. Inventory side, total HRC inventory rose by 77,500 mt WoW, while mill inventory fell by 6,200 mt WoW. Social inventory, SMM statistics of 86 warehouses nationwide (large sample) showed HRC social inventory at 4.4773 million mt, up 83,700 mt WoW (+1.90% WoW) and up 40.27 mt YoY on a calendar basis. By region, except the northeast that saw slight destocking, all other markets experienced inventory buildup, with east China showing relatively large fluctuations. Cost side, the second round of coke price cuts was implemented, weakening cost support. Looking ahead, SMM expects hot metal production to bottom out and rebound, and with the US-Iran conflict pushing up ocean freight rates, iron ore prices may see a slight rebound. Meanwhile, a third round of coke price cuts still lingers, leaving overall cost support moderate. From a fundamental perspective, the HRC supply-demand imbalance continues to build, and combined with the PBoC Politburo meeting expectations falling short, there is no clear upward price catalyst. However, given that prices are already at relatively low levels, downside room is limited. HRC prices are expected to move sideways at the bottom next week, with the most-traded HRC contract trading in the 3,200-3,390 range.

Tata Steel's June-quarter results showed stronger realised prices and a richer product mix helped offset lower steel volumes, highlighting the growing role of value-added products and downstream integration in supporting margins beyond benchmark HRC prices.

[Brazil] Brazilian imported flat steel prices remained largely stable this week, as surging freight rates effectively offset falling FOB offers from major origins. Hot-rolled coil (HRC) and cold-rolled coil (CRC) import prices held steady at 590 USD/tonne CFR and 700 USD/tonne CFR, respectively. Escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have driven up shipping fuel costs, counteracting the FOB price cuts made by Vietnamese mills amid sluggish Asian demand and falling raw material costs. In the domestic market, pressured by weak downstream demand, tight credit, and accumulating inventories, Brazilian ex-works HRC prices held flat this week, with no price hikes planned for August. Additionally, Brazilian slab export sales slowed this week, as major exporters finalized internal transfers to their own mills in Europe and the Americas at 575–585 USD/tonne FOB.

[Vietnam] The Southeast Asian HRC price declined by 3 USD/tonne to 510 USD/tonne CFR. A 30,000-tonne cargo of Indian SAE1006 HRC was concluded at this level for September delivery, while Indonesian material was also offered at 510 USD/tonne CFR Vietnam. Vietnamese buyers remained cautious and were waiting for new monthly offers from a major domestic steelmaker.

[Sheets & Plates] Today, export prices of HRC and other sheets & plates edged down $1/mt day-on-day, with HRC transaction prices at $481-485/mt. Export price adjustments were limited, and both market transaction prices and sentiment were subdued.

Price Dynamics of Non-Oriented Silicon Steel Shanghai B50A800 Grade: 4,380-4,380 yuan/mt Guangzhou B50A800 Grade: 4,200-4,200 yuan/mt Wuhan 50WW800 Grade: 4,280-4,250 yuan/mt Shanghai Market: This week, spot prices of cold-rolled non-oriented silicon steel in the Shanghai market were in the doldrums, with some grades falling by 50-100 yuan/mt, and overall transaction performance was sluggish. Market feedback indicated that ferrous metals futures weakened this week, providing insufficient cost support for silicon steel. Additionally, downstream motor enterprises maintained a slow procurement pace, leading to a lack of improvement on the demand side. Traders generally reported sluggish transactions and mostly chose to offer small discounts when selling. However, firm ordering costs from state-owned steel mills provided some support to spot prices. Overall, spot prices of cold-rolled non-oriented silicon steel in the Shanghai market are expected to remain in the doldrums next week. Guangzhou Market: This week, the cold-rolled non-oriented silicon steel market in Guangzhou was in the doldrums, with relatively sluggish transaction performance. Market feedback indicated that HRC futures continued to decline this week, dampening market confidence. Downstream procurement enthusiasm was low, and traders focused on actively selling and recovering funds. The overall trading atmosphere was sluggish, but inventory levels were not high, and sales pressure was moderate. Overall, spot prices of cold-rolled non-oriented silicon steel in the Guangzhou market are expected to remain in the doldrums next week. Wuhan Market: This week, cold-rolled non-oriented silicon steel prices in the Wuhan market were in the doldrums, with most grades falling by 30-50 yuan/mt and transaction performance being sluggish. Market feedback indicated that traders slightly lowered their spot quotations, but downstream purchasing enthusiasm was mediocre, dominated by just-in-time procurement. The overall trading atmosphere was relatively sluggish. Overall, spot prices of cold-rolled non-oriented silicon steel in the Wuhan market are expected to remain in the doldrums next week. Data Source Statement: (In addition to publicly available information, the data in this report are derived from public sources (including but not limited to industry news, seminars, exhibitions, corporate financial reports, brokerage reports, NBS data, customs import and export data, and various data published by major associations and institutions), market communication, and SMM’s internal database models. They have been obtained through comprehensive analysis and reasonable inference by the research team. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making advice. SMM reserves the right of final interpretation of this statement and the right to adjust and modify the statement content according to actual circumstances.

On July 30 China's steel export prices were broadly weaker. Flat-product export prices edged down 2-3 USD/tonne day on day, with HRC transactions at 482-486 USD/tonne; domestically the meeting released no favourable news and futures fell sharply, and while overseas enquiries picked up somewhat, sentiment stayed largely wait-and-see, with price cuts unable to secure large volumes so export offers were lowered only modestly. Billet export offers at Jiangyin port were soft but steady at 450-455 USD/tonne FOB, as ferrous futures broke below the support level the market had expected and traders' willingness to hold prices firm waned, while overseas customers largely prefer buying on rallies rather than on dips. Rebar export prices at Tianjin port slipped 1 USD/tonne to 476-481 USD/tonne on transactions, with offers divided: some mills cut by 2-3 USD/tonne and drew only a few enquiries without concluding deals, while others opted to hold firm and kept prices flat.