Currently, the price difference between Southeast Asia's import price and ex-factory price is around $10/mt. The provisional anti-dumping duty of 19.38%-27.83% will increase Vietnam's import costs by $94-130/mt (based on current import prices), rendering imports almost uncompetitive. Previously, it was expected that the tariff would take effect in March, but the earlier-than-expected implementation may result in risks of canceled orders or additional costs for some shipments that fail to depart in time, which could, in turn, exert corresponding pressure on domestic steel mills to redirect pig iron or shift to domestic trade sales. According to the specifications and trade modes involved in the anti-dumping case, approximately 90% of HRC exports fall within the scope of Vietnam's anti-dumping investigation, with an annual total volume of about 7.32 million mt/year, equivalent to 600,000 mt/month. However, according to SMM, the Vietnamese authorities originally announced that the provisional tariff would be introduced in November 2024. At that time, some domestic customers had already adjusted their sales channels to mitigate risks. After the export surge in September and October, the total steel exports to Vietnam dropped to over 400,000 mt in November and December. The export surge remained evident in January, with HRC exports to Vietnam expected to rebound to 500,000 mt MoM in January. Due to the impact of the Chinese New Year holiday, February exports may pull back to 300,000-350,000 mt, while March HRC exports to Vietnam are expected to fall below 300,000 mt.