SMM, March 24: The most-traded SHFE lead 2605 contract opened at 16,435 yuan/mt intraday. After the opening, prices edged lower, and the tug-of-war between longs and shorts intensified. SHFE lead prices fluctuated at lows in consolidation, touching an intraday low of 16,385 yuan/mt. Thereafter, bulls gradually gained strength and prices fluctuated higher, but with insufficient upward momentum, lead prices pulled back again and fluctuated rangebound within the 16,429-16,451 yuan/mt range. Near the close, SHFE lead prices dipped slightly and finally settled at 16,420 yuan/mt. A small bearish candlestick was recorded, up 25 yuan/mt, or 0.15%. In terms of supply, primary lead enterprise quotes saw discounts narrow slightly from last Friday, and spot cargo available for pickup at plants with medium to large discounts decreased significantly; in the secondary refined lead market, fewer merchants offered quotes, with relatively prominent price divergence between upstream and downstream players. Downstream buyers showed limited acceptance of premiums, while upstream quotes stayed firm and willingness to sell remained cautious. On the demand side, downstream enterprise procurement pace was relatively scattered, with most purchases centered on the execution of long-term contracts. Some enterprises replenished inventories on dips based on immediate needs, and overall market transactions were mixed. SMM expects SHFE lead prices to remain in the doldrums in the short term. Statement on data sources: Except for public information, all other data is derived by SMM through processing based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, and is for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.

As supply and demand for construction steel were not fully matched across different markets, regional supply-demand mismatches created price differentiation, which in turn drove the cross-regional circulation of steel resources. When the regional price spread gradient was appropriate, regions with surplus construction steel capacity and production often shipped excess resources out, thereby rebalancing construction steel resources across regions.

[Weak Market Sentiment Weighed on Both Spot Silicon Metal and Polysilicon Prices]: This week, the silicon metal market moved lower after a stalemate, with weak market sentiment, some downstream procurement demand released, and cautious trading sentiment. SMM east China oxygen-blown #553 silicon stood at 9,000-9,200 yuan/mt, down 100 yuan/mt WoW. At the beginning of the week, silicon metal market prices remained in a stalemate, while the most-traded contract fluctuated around 8,550-8,750 yuan/mt, with downstream procurement mainly focused on factory cargoes. Later, affected by macro factors and capital sentiment, futures prices declined continuously and closed at 8,285 yuan/mt on Thursday. As spot-futures traders' price advantages became apparent, shipments increased, downstream procurement sentiment diverged, and the market saw transactions based on immediate needs.

[SMM Aluminum Express News] Guinea Bauxite & Alumina Exports in January 2026. Ministry of Mines and Geology reports: Total bauxite 20.26 million tons; alumina 46,764 tons. Bauxite Highlights (top contributors): 1. SMB: 6.57 Mt (32 vessels) – leading exporter 2. Chalco: 2.64 Mt (14 vessels) 3. CBG: 1.64 Mt (28 vessels) 4. Zhicheng Guinee Mining/GBT: 0.94 Mt (5 vessels) 5. CDM China: 0.94 Mt (5 vessels) Other key volumes: 6. Cobad: 0.82 Mt 7. AMC: 0.79 Mt 8. BAM: 0.63 Mt 9. KBM: 0.58 Mt Alumina: 1. Friguia: 46,764 tons (2 vessels) – sole reported exporter

SMM News, March 17: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,905/mt. During the Asian session, LME lead fluctuated around the daily average line. Entering the European session, LME lead edged down to $1,883/mt, then fluctuated upward. Around midnight, after moving sideways, the futures were dominated by bulls, with the center gradually lifting to a high of $1,926/mt, and finally closing at $1,925/mt, up $22/mt, or 1.16%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead contract opened higher with a gap at 16,450 yuan/mt. In early trading, SHFE lead prices plunged rapidly, hitting a low of 16,320 yuan/mt before a slight correction. Thereafter, bulls and bears competed, and SHFE lead posted wide swings within the 16,355-16,405 yuan/mt range. Toward the end of the night session, SHFE lead fluctuated upward, but as bears gained strength, it shifted to a fluctuate downward trend, closing at 16,405 yuan/mt, near the session low. It formed a long upper shadow bearish candle, up 90 yuan/mt, or 0.55%. After SHFE lead fell sharply yesterday, some of the losses were recouped, and discounts for primary lead spot narrowed from last Friday. As losses widened, secondary lead enterprises quoted premiums, with some choosing not to ship. As secondary lead prices inverted against primary lead prices, downstream buyers favored purchasing primary lead. Overall, support on the spot side and cautious downstream sentiment remained in competition, making it difficult for lead prices to stage a strong reversal for now, with weak consolidation and rangebound sideways movement likely to dominate.

In October 2024, Guinean customs authorities suspended bauxite exports from Guinea Alumina Corporation (GAC), a subsidiary of Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA), due to unresolved issues with the Guinean government, chiefly around concerns over GAC’s failure to progress on its commitment to build a domestic alumina refinery.

Guinea Plans to Establish Bauxite Price Index to Strengthen Resource Control According to foreign media reports on April 4, the Guinean government plans to launch the "Guinea Bauxite Price Index" by the end of 2025 as an official reference for export pricing, aiming to prevent transfer pricing, enhance export transparency, and increase national fiscal revenue. This index will transform Guinea from a price taker to a price setter. According to SMM statistics, Guinea's bauxite production reached 130 million mt in 2024, ranking first globally.

Guinea’s bauxite sector has drawn significant attention in recent years, with production nearing 130-137 million tonnes annually and multiple mining and infrastructure projects underway.

Customs data for October 2023 shows China's bauxite imports at 11.1273 million mt, up 11.0% MoM and 23.97% YoY.

Customs data for November 2023 shows China's bauxite imports at 11.9280 million mt, up 7.19% MoM and 1.17% YoY.