SMM July 8: Today, the SHFE aluminum 2608 contract opened at 22,940 yuan/mt, rose to a high of 23,140 yuan/mt, dipped to a low of 22,940 yuan/mt, and settled at 23,075 yuan/mt, up 155 yuan/mt or 0.68% from the previous trading day. Trading volume was 148,400 lots, and open interest was 232,000 lots, with a daily change of -14,047 lots. The price stood above the 5-day MA (22,828) and 10-day MA (22,802.50), but remained below the 20-day MA (23,378.75), 40-day MA (23,943.13), and 60-day MA (24,261.75). The short-term recovery continued, but the medium and long-term weak trend has not been reversed. On the MACD indicator, DIFF (-408.99) was slightly above DEA (-409.92), and the histogram recorded 1.86, indicating that bearish momentum clearly narrowed. Trading volume remained low, and the daily change in open interest of -14,047 lots showed continued capital outflow. Today's rise was still mainly driven by short-covering. SMM Comment: The indirect technical talks between the US and Iran made progress, with discussions around fund returns and strait security, and nuclear consultations are about to start. The geopolitical risk premium continued to converge. Although disputes over the management of the Strait of Hormuz persisted, the resumption of strait navigation still faced uncertainties. The US Fed's hawkish shift boosted the US dollar index, and base metal prices were pressured. Under macro headwinds, aluminum prices in and outside China fell. In the short term, bearish factors dominate, and aluminum prices are expected to remain in the doldrums. Today, the alumina 2609 contract opened at 2,701 yuan/mt, rose to a high of 2,725 yuan/mt, dipped to a low of 2,692 yuan/mt, and settled at 2,716 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt or 0.37% from the previous trading day. Trading volume was 174,800 lots, and open interest was 346,300 lots, with a daily change of -6,243 lots. The price remained below the 5-day MA (2,718), 10-day MA (2,760.80), 20-day MA (2,829.25), 40-day MA (2,810.70), and 60-day MA (2,814.22). All moving averages maintained a bearish alignment, and the weak futures pattern has not been repaired yet. On the MACD indicator, DIFF (-33.35) was below DEA (-15.92), and the histogram recorded -34.86, indicating that bearish momentum still existed. Trading volume pulled back slightly, and the daily change in open interest of -6,243 lots showed some capital outflow. Today's rebound was more of a short-covering repair at low levels, with sustained upward momentum remaining insufficient. SMM Comment: According to SMM statistics, as of last Thursday, total alumina inventory in China edged down WoW. By inventory structure, aluminum smelter raw material inventory continued to destock slightly, but due to large price fluctuations recently and market divergence on the outlook, restocking willingness was weak, and end-users mainly stood on the sidelines. In-factory alumina inventory fell, mainly affected by some enterprises in the north conducting scheduled maintenance, where production constraints led to priority consumption of in-factory inventory. It is expected that after maintenance ends next week, this impact will gradually fade. Port inventory continued to accumulate, with ex-China port arrivals remaining high. Imported resources supplemented spot supply and increased market pressure. Overall, the oversupply pattern has not changed. Before Guinea's bauxite quota policy is implemented, the market lacks a clear bullish catalyst. It is expected that next week, inventory will shift from weak destocking to slight buildup, supply-demand will remain loose, and alumina prices will continue to consolidate on a weak note. [The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment research advice. Clients should make decisions prudently and not use this as a substitute for independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients have no connection with SMM.]

In H1 2026, the overseas bauxite market was generally characterized by high shipment levels, growing imports, a year-on-year decline in prices but a recovery within the year, stronger policy disturbances, and rising energy and freight costs. In particular, escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East pushed up oil prices and dry bulk freight rates, becoming an important cost-side factor supporting Guinea bauxite CIF China prices. On the supply side, bauxite shipments from Guinea’s major ports maintained significant year-on-year growth, making Guinea the core source of overseas bauxite supply increments. Australian shipments were generally stable, although local weather disruptions in March caused a temporary decline in shipments from major ports. In terms of domestic import structure, as June customs import data by country has not yet been released, this article mainly observes import changes from January to May 2026. Data shows that domestic bauxite imports continued to grow year-on-year during January-May 2026, with the source structure becoming increasingly concentrated in Guinea. On the price side, imported bauxite prices in H1 2026 were significantly lower than the same period in 2025, but prices did not continue to decline throughout the year. Since March, escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have pushed up international oil prices and dry bulk freight costs, leading to a significant increase in Guinea bauxite CIF China prices. Around the Labour Day holiday and again in mid-to-late June, market rumours repeatedly suggested that the Guinean government might introduce bauxite export quota-related policies. Although no such policies were officially implemented within the expected timeframe, these rumours disrupted the transaction pace between buyers and sellers and provided support to forward price expectations. At the same time, after the Chinese New Year holiday, imported bauxite raw material inventories at domestic alumina refineries remained at elevated levels, while port inventories of imported bauxite continued to accumulate after March and throughout H1, limiting further upside in spot prices. Overall, the overseas bauxite market in H1 2026 did not face an absolute shortage. Instead, it showed a pattern of relatively loose physical supply but tightening expectations from costs and policy risks. High Guinean shipments supported arrivals of imported bauxite in the domestic market, but the high concentration of domestic import sources in Guinea also made the market more sensitive to Guinean policy changes, rainy-season shipment disruptions, freight rate fluctuations, and changes in long-term contract prices. Price: Still Low YoY, but CIF Prices Recovered in Stages During the Year According to SMM data, in January-June 2026, the average SMM Imported Bauxite CIF Index stood at around $66.37/mt, down around 26.0% from the same period in 2025. The average Guinea bauxite CIF China price was around $65.88/mt, down around 25.8% year-on-year. The average Australia high-temperature bauxite CIF China price was around $56.93/mt, down around 23.0% year-on-year. The average Australia low-temperature bauxite CIF China price was around $61.63/mt, down around 24.1% year-on-year. From a year-on-year perspective, imported bauxite prices in H1 2026 remained significantly below the same period last year. However, from an intra-year perspective, imported bauxite prices first declined and then recovered. In early January, the SMM Imported Bauxite CIF Index was around $68.35/mt, while Guinea bauxite CIF China was around $67.5/mt. By late February, Guinea bauxite CIF China had once fallen to around $60/mt. After entering March, rising oil prices and freight costs amid escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East pushed up the landed cost of Guinea bauxite delivered to China. On March 2, Guinea bauxite CIF China was around $62/mt; by March 20, it had risen to $66.5/mt, and by the end of March it further increased to $68.5/mt. It is worth noting that in March, the increase in Guinea CIF prices was significantly greater than the change in FOB prices. SMM data shows that Guinea bauxite FOB was around $37.5/mt on March 2, rose to $38.5/mt on March 20, and remained near $38.5/mt at the end of March. Over the same period, the Guinea CIF-FOB spread widened from around $24.5/mt to around $30/mt. Overall, the March increase in Guinea CIF prices was not entirely driven by mine-side quotations. Freight rates, energy costs, trading premiums, and forward supply risk expectations all provided support to landed prices. From late April to early May, the market heard rumours that the Guinean government might announce bauxite export quota-related policies during the Labour Day holiday. As a result, transaction activity between buyers and sellers slowed significantly, and the market turned cautious. In terms of price performance, Guinea bauxite CIF China remained largely stable at around $67.5/mt between April 24 and May 8, while the SMM Imported Bauxite CIF Index also stayed near $67.52/mt. Prices mainly moved sideways and did not break out significantly. As no related policy was officially introduced during the Labour Day period, market transactions gradually recovered in mid-May, and Guinea bauxite CIF China edged up to around $68/mt. Entering June, Guinean policy expectations once again disturbed the market. Around the Dragon Boat Festival, market rumours again suggested that the Guinean government might introduce export quota-related policies between mid-June and early July. At the same time, market participants were waiting for the release of July long-term contract prices, causing buyers and sellers to turn cautious again. In terms of prices, Guinea bauxite CIF China rose from around $68/mt in early June to around $69.5/mt in mid-June, and further increased to around $71/mt by the end of June. For Guinea monthly long-term contract prices, the price stood at $67/mt in January 2026, fell to $62/mt in February, rebounded to $63/mt in March, remained at $70/mt from April to June, and further increased to $71/mt in July. The firm long-term contract price also provided certain support to the spot market. Shipments: Guinea Maintained High Growth, while Australia Saw a Temporary Weather-Related Decline in March Due to the limited disclosure frequency of overseas mine production data, this article uses weekly shipments from major ports as a reference indicator for observing overseas bauxite exportable supply trends. For monthly comparison, all monthly shipment data mentioned in this article is calculated by allocating weekly shipment data to corresponding months based on the proportion of calendar days. According to SMM statistics, in January-June 2026, bauxite shipments from Guinea’s major ports totalled around 115.1357 million mt, up around 26.5% from the same period in 2025. By month, shipments from Guinea’s major ports increased by around 40.2% YoY in January, 35.1% YoY in February, 28.7% YoY in March, 31.5% YoY in April, 10.9% YoY in May, and 13.5% YoY in June. Overall, Guinean shipments remained high in H1 and continued to serve as the main source of overseas bauxite supply growth. In terms of shipment structure, high Guinean shipments reflected continued release of mine and port export capacity, while also supporting high arrivals of imported bauxite in the domestic market. At the same time, Guinea’s rising share in the domestic import structure means that the market has become increasingly sensitive to local policy changes, weather conditions, port operations, and shipping conditions. For Australia, bauxite shipments from major ports totalled around 21.6586 million mt in January-June 2026, down around 3.7% year-on-year. Overall performance was relatively stable, but its incremental supply elasticity was weaker than Guinea’s. Australia’s shipments fell notably in March, mainly due to local weather disruptions and related natural events. Weekly data shows that Australian bauxite shipments from major ports declined significantly during March, with shipments from Weipa falling to a low level in late March. After entering April, shipments from Australia’s major ports recovered quickly. This indicates that the weather disruption had more of a temporary impact on shipments rather than representing a sustained supply contraction. Import Structure: Domestic Imports Grew YoY in January-May, with Guinea’s Dominance Further Strengthened On the import side, as June customs import data by country has not yet been released, this article mainly observes domestic bauxite import changes in January-May 2026. According to customs data, domestic bauxite imports totalled around 100.7579 million mt in January-May 2026, up around 18.6% from 84.9571 million mt in the same period of 2025. By country, domestic imports from Guinea reached around 82.5716 million mt in January-May 2026, up around 24.9% from 66.1231 million mt in the same period of 2025. Guinea accounted for around 82.0% of total domestic bauxite imports, up from around 77.8% in the same period last year. This shows that Guinea remained the largest source of domestic imported bauxite, while its dominance in the import structure further strengthened. Australia remained the second-largest source of domestic bauxite imports. In January-May 2026, domestic imports from Australia stood at around 14.4914 million mt, up around 8.2% from 13.3929 million mt in the same period of 2025. However, Australia’s share of total domestic bauxite imports stood at around 14.4%, lower than around 15.8% in the same period last year. Overall, Australian supply remained stable, but its share in the domestic import structure was significantly lower than Guinea’s, and its short-term incremental supply elasticity was relatively limited. Among non-mainstream sources, domestic imports from Sierra Leone reached around 1.0353 million mt in January-May 2026, marking a significant year-on-year increase. Imports from Guyana reached around 747,200 mt, up slightly year-on-year, while imports from Türkiye reached around 559,100 mt, down significantly year-on-year. Overall, non-mainstream sources provided supplementary supply in certain months, but in terms of supply scale, stability, quality compatibility, and logistics conditions, they remain unable to substantially replace Guinea in the short term. From a monthly perspective, domestic bauxite imports remained high in January-May 2026. Imports stood at around 19.2528 million mt in January, 16.9530 million mt in February, 21.7789 million mt in March, 19.7433 million mt in April, and further increased to around 23.0298 million mt in May. May imports were at a high level, with imports from Guinea reaching around 19.6074 million mt and imports from Australia around 3.0259 million mt. High Guinean shipments in earlier periods and continued demand for imported ore from domestic coastal alumina refineries jointly supported import growth. Inventory and Transactions: High Inventories Suppressed Spot Procurement, while Policy Expectations Disrupted Transaction Pace In terms of inventories, according to SMM surveys, imported bauxite raw material inventories at domestic alumina refineries remained at elevated levels after the Chinese New Year holiday. Meanwhile, after geopolitical tensions in the Middle East escalated in March, domestic port inventories of imported bauxite continued to accumulate throughout H1. With relatively sufficient inventory buffers, downstream alumina refineries had limited acceptance of high-priced spot cargoes. Procurement was mainly conducted on a need-to basis, while some enterprises preferred to observe policy changes, freight rates, and long-term contract price movements before restocking. High inventories also explain a key contradiction in price movements during H1. On the one hand, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East pushed up energy and freight costs, while repeated Guinean policy expectations disturbed market sentiment and supported imported bauxite prices. On the other hand, elevated inventories at alumina refineries and ports meant that spot procurement did not see sustained concentrated buying, and acceptance of high-priced cargoes remained limited, thereby restricting further price upside. Around the Labour Day holiday, the market heard rumours that the Guinean government might announce bauxite export quota-related policies during the holiday period. Transactions between buyers and sellers weakened significantly, and the market entered a wait-and-see mode. As no related policy was officially introduced within the expected timeframe, market transactions gradually recovered after mid-May, but prices only saw a mild recovery. In mid-to-late June, the market again heard rumours that Guinea might introduce quota-related policies between mid-June and early July. Together with uncertainty around July long-term contract prices, transaction activity became cautious again. Therefore, the impact of Guinean policy expectations in H1 2026 was reflected more in transaction pace and price expectations, rather than simply driving a sustained rapid increase in spot prices. Major Events: Cost Disturbances, Australian Weather, and Guinean Policy Expectations Ran Through H1 The major events in the overseas bauxite market in H1 2026 can be divided into three main lines. First, escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East in March pushed up oil prices and dry bulk freight costs, driving a rapid recovery in Guinea bauxite CIF China prices. As the Guinea-China route is long, freight rate movements have a significant impact on landed costs. From March to June, Guinea-China bauxite freight rates remained high, once rising to around $36/mt, and fluctuated within a high range. At the same time, persistently high oil prices also pushed up transportation and export costs at Guinean mines. Some mines faced pressure on export margins, and market feedback suggested that some mines reduced shipments in stages or controlled shipment pace during May-June to ease cost pressure. Second, Australia saw a temporary decline in shipments from major ports in March due to local weather disruptions. After allocating weekly shipment data to months based on calendar days, Australian bauxite shipments from major ports stood at around 2.5339 million mt in March, down around 38.8% year-on-year. Among them, shipments from Weipa fell notably in late March. Shipments recovered quickly after entering April, indicating that the disruption was more of a short-term event and had limited impact on the full-year supply structure. Third, Guinean export quota policy expectations repeatedly disturbed the market. Around the Labour Day holiday, market rumours suggested that the Guinean government might announce export quota-related policies, leading to weaker transactions and sideways price movements. However, no such policy was eventually introduced, and market transactions gradually recovered after mid-May. In mid-to-late June, the market again heard rumours that the Guinean government might introduce quota-related policies between mid-June and early July. Together with the pending release of July long-term contract prices, prices again remained firm. Although the policy has not yet been officially implemented, the market has become significantly more sensitive to such news amid the high dependence of domestic imported bauxite on Guinea. Full-Year Outlook: Guinean Policy Risk and Freight Cost Disturbances Continue to Support Forward Price Expectations Looking ahead to H2 2026, the core contradiction in the overseas bauxite market is expected to continue revolving around Guinean policy changes, rainy-season shipments, and freight cost fluctuations. If shipments from Guinea’s major ports remain relatively stable as seen in early July, and Guinea-China freight rates continue to fall, imported bauxite supply is still expected to remain relatively sufficient. Domestic alumina refinery and port inventories may also remain elevated, limiting further upside in spot prices. However, on the risk side, current market rumours still suggest that the Guinean government may introduce bauxite export quota-related policies in H2 2026. If such policies are officially implemented and impose substantial constraints on local mine shipment schedules, Guinean bauxite supply elasticity may be affected, thereby supporting imported bauxite prices. Meanwhile, as Guinea gradually enters its traditional rainy season, mining, inland transportation, and port loading may all face temporary disruptions. Based on historical rainy-season performance, Guinean shipments may decline in certain months, affecting domestic arrival schedules and port inventory digestion. In terms of freight rates, Middle East developments still showed potential for volatility in early July, and the previous easing expectations still require further observation. If geopolitical risks rise again, oil prices and dry bulk freight costs may increase once more. Guinea-China bauxite freight rates may rebound from the current range of around $30-32/mt to $36/mt or even higher, pushing imported bauxite CIF prices higher again. Conversely, if the Middle East situation continues to ease and oil prices and freight rates decline further, Guinea-China freight rates may fall below $30/mt. In that case, some Guinean mines that previously reduced shipments or controlled shipment pace may resume shipments, and market transaction activity may recover. On prices, overseas bauxite prices in H2 are expected to remain constrained on both the upside and downside. On the upside, elevated raw material inventories at domestic alumina refineries and port inventories will limit acceptance of high-priced spot cargoes. If actual supply does not shrink significantly, the momentum for a sustained sharp price increase may be limited. On the downside, Guinean policy expectations, rainy-season disruptions, freight volatility, long-term contract price support, and import source concentration risks all mean that imported bauxite prices lack the basis for a sharp decline. In H2 2026, the market needs to closely monitor whether Guinean export policies are officially implemented, the actual impact of the rainy season on local mines and port shipments, Guinea-China freight rate movements, July and subsequent long-term contract price adjustments, and domestic port inventory digestion. If Guinean shipments remain high and port inventories continue to accumulate, the upside elasticity of imported bauxite prices may remain limited. However, if policy implementation tightens, rainy-season disruptions exceed expectations, or freight rates rise again, Guinea bauxite CIF China prices may still receive periodic support. Conclusion Overall, the overseas bauxite market in H1 2026 was characterized by high shipments, growing imports, a year-on-year price decline but intra-year recovery, and stronger policy disturbances. Guinean shipments increased significantly year-on-year, supporting high domestic bauxite import volumes. Australian shipments recovered after a temporary weather-related decline in March, and overall supply remained relatively stable. In terms of import structure, domestic bauxite imports increased by around 18.6% year-on-year in January-May 2026. Among them, imports from Guinea increased by around 24.9% year-on-year, with its share rising further to around 82.0%, indicating that domestic imported bauxite reliance on Guinea continued to increase. On the price side, imported bauxite prices in H1 2026 were significantly lower than the same period in 2025. However, prices recovered during the year amid geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, rising oil and freight costs, Guinean export quota policy expectations, and long-term contract price support. At the same time, elevated raw material inventories at alumina refineries after the Chinese New Year holiday and continued port inventory accumulation after March limited further upside in spot prices. Looking ahead, the overseas bauxite market does not lack absolute supply, but the supply structure is highly concentrated. Price volatility is increasingly driven by policy, logistics, freight, and risk premiums rather than a simple supply-demand gap. In H2, Guinean policy implementation, rainy-season shipments, freight rate movements, long-term contract price adjustments, and domestic port inventory digestion will be key factors affecting overseas bauxite prices and import structure changes.

SMM Jul 6: The SHFE aluminum 2608 contract opened at 22,850 yuan/mt, reached a high of 23,080 yuan/mt, dipped to a low of 22,785 yuan/mt, and closed at 22,940 yuan/mt, up 105 yuan/mt or 0.46% from the previous trading day. Trading volume was 146,200 lots and open interest was 246,000 lots, with a daily decline of 7,151 lots. Price settled above the MA5 (22,687) and MA10 (22,840.50), but remained below the MA20 (23,433.75), MA40 (23,982.50), and MA60 (24,287.67). Short-term momentum improved, but the medium- and long-term bearish pattern has not yet reversed. On the MACD, DIFF (-444.86) was below DEA (-410.16), and the histogram recorded -69.41, indicating persisting bearish momentum but narrowing significantly from earlier. Trading volume of 146,200 lots declined further from the previous session, and the daily open interest decline of 7,151 lots signals continued capital outflows. Today's uptick was more a reflection of technical recovery driven by short-covering. SMM Commentary: The indirect technical talks between the US and Iran made progress, with both sides discussing fund repatriation and strait security, and consultations on the nuclear issue are about to begin. The geopolitical risk premium continued to shrink, while disputes over the management of the Strait of Hormuz persisted, leaving uncertainty over the strait’s resumption of navigation. The US Fed’s hawkish pivot boosted the US dollar index, putting pressure on non‑ferrous metals prices. Amid macro headwinds, aluminum prices fell in and outside China, with bearish factors dominating in the short term. Aluminum prices are expected to be in the doldrums going forward. The alumina 2609 contract opened at 2,727 yuan/mt, hit a high of 2,727 yuan/mt, dipped to a low of 2,694 yuan/mt, and closed at 2,701 yuan/mt, down 16 yuan/mt or 0.59% from the previous trading day. Trading volume was 184,200 lots and open interest was 352,500 lots, with a daily increase of 18,337 lots. Prices remained below the MA5 (2,732), MA10 (2,776.60), MA20 (2,835.35), MA40 (2,812.43), and MA60 (2,815.27), with the moving averages in bearish alignment and the market continuing to show weakness. On the MACD, DIFF (-30.82) was below DEA (-11.56), and the histogram recorded -38.51, signaling continued bearish momentum. Trading volume of 184,200 lots pulled back slightly from the previous session, but the daily increase in open interest of 18,337 lots indicates additional capital entering at lower levels, with bears remaining aggressive. SMM Commentary: According to SMM data, as of last Thursday, total domestic alumina inventory had edged down from the previous week. By inventory structure, raw material inventories at aluminum smelters continued to destock slightly, but given the recent sharp price fluctuations and divergent market outlooks, restocking appetite was weak, with end‑users largely on the sidelines. Alumina in-factory inventory decreased, mainly due to phased maintenance at some northern refineries, where production constraints led to priority use of in-factory stocks; this impact is expected to fade gradually after maintenance concludes next week. Port inventories continued to build, with ex‑China port arrivals staying high and import cargoes supplementing spot supply, adding pressure to the market. Overall, the oversupply picture remains unchanged, and before Guinea’s bauxite export quota policy is implemented, the market lacks clear bullish drivers. Next week, inventories are likely to shift from weak destocking to a slight buildup, with supply-demand staying ample and alumina prices expected to continue to be in the doldrums. [The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment, research, or decision‑making advice. Clients should make decisions prudently, and not substitute this for independent judgment. Any decision made by clients is unrelated to Shanghai Metals Market.]

SMM July 6: The SHFE aluminum 2608 contract opened at 22,685 yuan/mt, rose to a high of 22,970 yuan/mt, dipped to a low of 22,685 yuan/mt, and settled at 22,885 yuan/mt, up 225 yuan/mt or 0.99% from the previous trading day. Trading volume was 168,800 lots, open interest stood at 253,200 lots, with a daily open interest change of -9,839 lots. The price reclaimed the MA5 (22,612) but remained below the MA10 (22,895), MA20 (23,463), MA40 (23,967.75) and MA60 (24,254.42). The moving average system remains in a bearish arrangement, and the short-term rebound has not yet reversed the weak pattern. In the MACD indicator, DIFF (-449.81) is below DEA (-383.17), and the histogram recorded -133.27, showing bearish momentum still exists but is narrowing marginally. Trading volume of 168,800 lots declined by 65,400 lots from the previous trading day, and the daily open interest change of -9,839 lots points to continued capital outflow. Today’s rise largely reflects a technical repair driven by bears covering positions. SMM Commentary: US-Iran indirect technical talks have made progress, with discussions around fund returns and strait security, and nuclear consultations are about to start. The geopolitical risk premium continues to converge, while the Strait of Hormuz management dispute persists and the resumption of navigation through the strait remains uncertain. The US Fed’s hawkish pivot boosted the US dollar index, pressuring nonferrous metals prices. Under macro headwinds, aluminum prices in and outside China fell. In the short term, bearish factors dominate, and aluminum prices are expected to remain in the doldrums. The alumina 2609 contract opened at 2,716 yuan/mt, rose to a high of 2,730 yuan/mt, dipped to a low of 2,705 yuan/mt, and settled at 2,720 yuan/mt, down 2 yuan/mt or 0.07%. Trading volume was 193,200 lots, open interest stood at 334,200 lots, with a daily open interest change of 11,220 lots. Prices are still below the MA5 (2,748.20), MA10 (2,790.80), MA20 (2,839.30), MA40 (2,815.55) and MA60 (2,799.83). The moving average system maintains a bearish divergence, and the downward trend has not yet been repaired. In the MACD indicator, DIFF (-23.67) is below DEA (-3.94), and the histogram widened to -39.47, with bearish momentum continuing to be released. Trading volume of 193,200 lots decreased by 68,000 lots from the previous trading day, but the daily open interest change of 11,220 lots indicates capital still entered the futures market at low levels, and short-term bearish initiative remains strong. SMM Commentary: According to SMM statistics, as of last Thursday, China’s total alumina inventory edged down WoW. Looking at the inventory structure, raw material inventory at aluminum smelters continued to destock slightly, but due to large recent price fluctuations and divergent market views on the outlook, restocking willingness was weak and end-users mainly adopted a wait-and-see stance. In-factory inventory at alumina refineries decreased, mainly affected by some enterprises in the north undergoing periodic maintenance; under production constraints, they prioritized consuming in-factory inventory. After the maintenance ends next week, this impact is expected to gradually fade. Port inventories continued to accumulate, with port arrivals from outside China staying high, as imported resources supplemented spot supply and added market pressure. Overall, the oversupply pattern remains unchanged. Before Guinea’s bauxite quota policy is implemented, the market lacks clear bullish drivers. Next week, inventory is expected to shift from weak destocking to a slight inventory buildup, supply-demand conditions will stay loose, and alumina prices will remain in the doldrums. [The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment research and decision-making advice. Clients should make prudent decisions and should not use this as a substitute for independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]

SMM Alumina Morning Comment 7.06 Futures: Overnight, the most-traded alumina 2609 futures contract bottomed out and rebounded, hitting a low of 2,705 yuan/mt before staging a strong rebound, eventually closing at 2,820 yuan/mt, edging up 1 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The daily candlestick formed a bullish candlestick with a long lower shadow, indicating strong support at the 2,700 yuan/mt level. From a moving averages perspective, the current price at 2,820 yuan/mt has risen above MA5 (2748.2) and MA40 (2815.55), but remains under resistance from MA10 (2790.8) and MA20 (2839.3). The short-term moving averages (MA5/MA10) are in a bearish alignment, while the medium-term MA20 still forms resistance above, indicating a tug-of-war between longs and shorts. The price oscillated around MA40. If it breaks through the MA20 (2839.3) resistance on high volume, it is expected to open up upside room; conversely, if it repeatedly fails to break through, caution is needed for a pullback to test the MA5 (2748.2) support. Overall, the futures show a consolidating pattern of 'bottoming out to confirm support while resistance persists above.' The short-term directional move will depend on volume confirmation and the battle at MA20. Ore market: As of July 3, 2026, the SMM Imported Bauxite Index was reported at $70.11/mt, up $0.13/mt from the previous trading day; the SMM Guinea FOB average price was $39/mt, flat from the previous trading day; the SMM Guinea bauxite CIF average price was $71/mt, flat; the SMM Australian low-temperature bauxite CIF average price was $64/mt, flat; the SMM Australian high-temperature bauxite CIF average price was $58.5/mt, flat; the Malaysian bauxite CIF average price was $52/mt, flat; the Malaysian bauxite CIF (washed) average price was $62.5/mt, flat; the Ghanaian bauxite CIF price was $78/mt, flat; the Turkish bauxite CFR price was $76/mt, down $2.5/mt from the previous Friday. Overall, for domestic ore, mine operations in Shanxi, Henan and other regions have recovered somewhat, and combined with falling alumina prices, sentiment among alumina refineries to push for lower raw material prices has strengthened, causing domestic ore prices to decline from earlier levels. As of July 2, in Shanxi, the EXW crushing plant price of bauxite with Al/Si ratio of 5.0 and alumina content of 60%, excluding VAT, was around 530-550 yuan/mt, with the average price up 10 yuan/mt MoM; in Henan, similar bauxite with Al/Si ratio of 5.0 and 60% alumina content, EXW crushing plant price, excluding VAT, was around 500-540 yuan/mt, with the average price up 20 yuan/mt MoM; in Guiyang, bauxite with Al/Si ratio of 6.0 and 60% alumina content, EXW price including VAT, was at 490-540 yuan/mt, with the average price up 20 yuan/mt MoM; in Guangxi, bauxite with Al/Si ratio of 6.0 and 53% alumina content, EXW crushing plant price excluding VAT, was at 320-335 yuan/mt. Imported ore side, uncertainties around Guinea’s July long-term contract prices and quota policies, combined with the traditional rainy season, prompted some mines to control shipments, lending some support to ore prices. Meanwhile, alumina refineries in China still held high inventories (equivalent to around 95 days), which limited their purchase willingness, and the tug-of-war over offer/bid prices between buyers and sellers persisted. In the short term, ore prices are expected to consolidate at highs. Going forward, close attention should be paid to the implementation of Guinea’s bauxite quota policy and the trend of ocean freight rates. Spot Prices: As of July 3, 2026, the SMM alumina index was at 2,773.71 yuan/mt, down 0.94 yuan/mt MoM; the SMM Shandong alumina index was at 2,791.91 yuan/mt, down 0.34 yuan/mt MoM; the SMM Henan alumina index was at 2,818.66 yuan/mt, down 1.73 yuan/mt MoM; the SMM Shanxi alumina index was at 2,829.98 yuan/mt, down 1.99 yuan/mt MoM; the SMM Guizhou alumina index was at 2,747.77 yuan/mt, down 1.59 yuan/mt MoM; the SMM Guangxi alumina index was at 2,674.59 yuan/mt, down 0.80 yuan/mt MoM. Daily Spot-Futures Spread: According to SMM data, on July 3, the SMM alumina index stood at a premium of 47.71 yuan/mt against the most-traded contract’s latest traded price at 11:30 a.m. Warrant Daily: On July 3, total registered alumina warrants increased by 6,312 mt from the previous trading day to 271,600 mt. In Shandong, total registered alumina warrants remained flat at 32,417 mt; in Henan, they held steady at 17,698 mt; in Guangxi, they were unchanged at 8,429 mt; in Gansu, they stayed flat at 11,704 mt; in Xinjiang, they rose by 6,312 mt to 201,300 mt. Markets outside China: As of July 3, 2026, the FOB Western Australia alumina price was $330/mt, the ocean freight rate was $32.30/mt, and the USD/CNY selling rate stood near 6.79. This translates to a selling price of approximately 2,863.50 yuan/mt at major Chinese ports, 89.79 yuan/mt above the SMM alumina index. Summary: Total alumina inventory in China edged up MoM, with relatively small overall changes. Breaking it down, raw material inventory at aluminum smelters declined, mainly because some smelters actively reduced high-priced in-factory inventories amid elevated spot alumina prices, leading to lower raw material stockpiling. In-factory inventory at alumina refineries edged up, as maintenance-related production cuts in Shanxi were offset by output increases in south China, resulting in limited overall changes. At ports, new vessels arrived successively, increasing port inventory. Warrant inventory trended downwards as the willingness to deliver to delivery warehouses waned due to invoice issuance issues and the spot-futures price spread. Inventory in transit and at yard stocks accumulated, mainly because warrants gradually matured and converted into spot cargoes, coupled with continued shipments from Guangxi, resulting in an increase in in-transit cargoes. The operational landscape for alumina is expected to see relatively small changes this week. Some enterprises using domestic ore may schedule maintenance due to ore supply-side issues, but the impact on monthly production will be limited, and overall inventory levels are expected to remain at current levels. On the price front, as the regional alumina mismatch problem gradually eases, the spot price center is likely to pull back, with the subsequent trend coming under pressure [All data other than publicly available information is derived from public data, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, processed by SMM for reference purposes only and does not constitute any decision-making advice.]

SMM July 2 News: Today the SHFE aluminum 2608 contract opened at 22,450 yuan/mt, reached a high of 22,595 yuan/mt, a low of 22,375 yuan/mt, and closed at 22,400 yuan/mt, down 85 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, a decline of 0.38%. Trading volume was 201,300 lots, open interest 280,800 lots, with a daily position change of -6,149 lots. Price remained well below MA5 (22,595), MA10 (23,146.5), MA30 (23,940.83), and MA60 (24,381.92), and the moving average system maintained a standard bearish alignment, with no reversal in the downtrend. On the MACD indicator, DIFF (-504.66) and DEA (-357.65) continued to diverge downward, and the histogram expanded to -294.03, signaling intensifying bearish momentum. Volume of 201,300 lots was below MA5 volume (279,600 lots), marking three consecutive days of contraction, with market trading becoming sluggish. The daily position change of -6,149 lots indicated continued fund outflows. SMM Commentary: Indirect technical talks between the US and Iran made progress, with discussions centering on fund repatriation and strait security. Consultations on the nuclear issue are about to begin. The geopolitical risk premium continued to narrow, while disputes over management rights of the Strait of Hormuz persisted, leaving uncertainty over the resumption of navigation through the strait. The Fed’s hawkish pivot boosted the US dollar index, pressuring nonferrous metal prices. Under macro headwinds, aluminum prices in and outside China fell. In the short term, bearish factors dominated, and aluminum prices were expected to remain in the doldrums. Today the alumina 2609 contract opened at 2,781 yuan/mt, reached a high of 2,803 yuan/mt, a low of 2,733 yuan/mt, and closed at 2,734 yuan/mt, down 52 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, a decline of 1.87%. Trading volume was 245,200 lots, open interest 304,500 lots, with a daily position change of +18,216 lots. Price had completely fallen below MA5 (2,786), MA10 (2,828.4), MA30 (2,885.07), and MA60 (2,820.37), with the moving averages spreading in a bearish alignment and the downtrend accelerating. On the MACD, DIFF (-13.64) turned negative and fell below DEA (2.59), and the histogram expanded to -32.46, indicating a clear strengthening of bearish momentum. Volume of 245,200 lots exceeded MA5 volume (211,900 lots), with the heavy-volume decline accompanied by a daily inflow of 18,216 lots, showing strong willingness by bears to actively add positions and press prices lower. SMM Commentary: According to SMM statistics, as of last Thursday, total domestic alumina inventory edged down WoW. Looking at the inventory structure, raw material inventory at aluminum smelters continued to destock slightly, but restocking willingness was weak due to significant recent price fluctuations and market divergence on the outlook, with end-users mainly on the sidelines. In-factory inventory at alumina refineries decreased, mainly affected by phased maintenance at some plants in the north, which prioritized consuming in-factory inventory amid production constraints. This impact is expected to gradually fade after maintenance ends next week. Port inventory continued to build up, with high port arrivals from outside China supplementing spot supply with imported resources and adding market pressure. Overall, the oversupply pattern remained unchanged. Prior to the implementation of Guinea’s bauxite quota policy, the market lacked clear bullish drivers. Next week, inventory is expected to shift from weak destocking to moderate buildup, with the supply-demand balance remaining loose and alumina prices continuing to be in the doldrums. [The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research decisions. Clients should make decisions prudently and not use this as a substitute for their own independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to Shanghai Metals Market.]

The Irish government is considering seeking EU financial support to keep Aughinish Alumina operating if further sanctions on Russia threaten the refinery's future due to its Russian ownership. Authorities are also assessing the possibility of temporary state control of the County Limerick refinery, one of Europe's largest alumina producers with 459 employees. Any disruption could affect aluminum supply chains serving the automotive and aerospace industries. Officials are also evaluating potential risks to bauxite supply if the current Russian owners halt shipments from Guinea. The move reflects growing efforts to balance Europe's industrial supply security with broader geopolitical sanctions against Russia.

SMM July 2: Domestic bauxite: Supply disruptions pushed up domestic ore prices; alumina enterprises' long-term contract procurement prices rose overall Affected by events related to Shanxi coking coal, mining at main domestic bauxite production areas like Shanxi and Henan faced certain disruptions in the short term, leading to phased changes in ore supply. Driven by expectations of supply tightening, the price center of domestic ore edged up slightly. Meanwhile, alumina prices remained at relatively high levels, and alumina enterprises had moderate tolerance for raw material price increases, mainly passively accepting current ore prices in the short term. As of today, in Shanxi, bauxite with an Al/Si ratio of 5 and 60% alumina content, excluding VAT, EXW crusher plant transaction prices were approximately 530-550 yuan/mt, with the average price up 10 yuan/mt MoM; in Henan, bauxite with an Al/Si ratio of 5 and 60% alumina content, excluding VAT, EXW crusher plant transaction prices were around 500-540 yuan/mt, with the average price up 20 yuan/mt MoM; in Guiyang, bauxite with an Al/Si ratio of 6 and 60% alumina content, including VAT, EXW price was 490-540 yuan/mt, with the average price up 20 yuan/mt MoM; in Guangxi, bauxite with an Al/Si ratio of 6 and 53% alumina content, excluding VAT, EXW crusher plant transaction prices were 320-335 yuan/mt. Imported bauxite: Guinea shipments pulled back alongside pending long-term contracts, with imported ore prices consolidating at highs According to data as of June 26, weekly port departures of bauxite from Guinea's main ports totaled 3.3834 million mt, down 409,200 mt from the previous week, with shipments pulling back. Ocean freight rates from Guinea to China fell to a range of $30-32/mt, with the lowest quote at $29/mt. Although ocean freight rates declined significantly from the previous $36/mt, market feedback generally indicated difficulty in securing shipping schedules and matching prices. With quota policies yet to be implemented and negotiations on July long-term contract prices still ongoing, coupled with the impact of Guinea's traditional rainy season, the market returned to a wait-and-see sentiment, and Guinean mines continued to control bauxite shipments. As for Australia, as of June 26, weekly port departures of bauxite from Australia's main ports totaled 1.0058 million mt, down 224,200 mt from the previous week. Attention should be paid to the shipment pace of Australian mines and changes in port departures. As of June 26, port arrivals of bauxite in China totaled 4.7276 million mt, down 666,900 mt from the previous week. Continuous attention is needed on the impact of high and fluctuating oil prices and ocean freight rates on forward arrival pace and landed costs. Price, there was still no news on the Guinean long-term contract price for July, with sources indicating that negotiations on the relevant long-term contract price were still underway. Meanwhile, domestic alumina refinery bauxite inventories remained high. This week, alumina refinery bauxite inventories were relatively stable, with days of inventories at around 95 days, exerting some top pressure on ore prices. For Guinean bauxite, ocean freight rates for spot cargoes to China began to pull back, but with market rumors that the Guinean quota policy was about to be implemented, the price tug-of-war between buyers and sellers continued. Guinean bauxite prices continued to consolidate at highs. As of Thursday this week, the FOB quote for Guinean bauxite was $38-40/mt, with the average price flat compared to last Thursday; the CIF price for Guinean bauxite was reported at $70-72/mt, with the average price flat compared to last Thursday; the SMM imported bauxite index price was reported at $69.98/mt, up $0.02/mt from last Thursday. Going forward, bauxite prices will still depend on various factors including mine costs, Guinea's traditional rainy season, the negotiation of the Guinean long-term contract price for July, and the impact of the Guinean government's bauxite export quota policy on overall shipments. SMM will continue to closely monitor bauxite market trends and transaction activities. Overall , domestic ore market prices maintained current levels; meanwhile, domestic alumina refinery inventories remained high (around 95 days), and the price tug-of-war between buyers and sellers continued. The uncertainty of Guinea's July long-term contract price and quota policy, together with the traditional rainy season, also put some upward pressure on bauxite costs. In the short term, due to reduced shipments caused by the dual impact of costs and policy, imported ore prices are expected to continue the high-level consolidation pattern. Going forward, the key focus will be on the implementation of Guinea's quota policy and ocean freight rate trends.

SMM, July 1: Today, SHFE aluminum 2608 contract opened at 22,565 yuan/mt, rose to a high of 22,755 yuan/mt, dipped to a low of 22,245 yuan/mt, and finally settled at 22,370 yuan/mt, down 215 yuan/mt or 0.95% from the previous trading day. Trading volume was 272,000 lots, and open interest stood at 287,000 lots, with a daily position decrease of 4,467 lots. The price has broken below all moving averages, widening the gap with MA5 (22,777) to over 400 points. MA10 (23,299.5), MA30 (24,013.67), and MA60 (24,421.75) are in a standard bearish alignment, accelerating the downtrend. In the MACD indicator, DIFF (-470.46) and DEA (-320.9) continue to diverge downward, with the histogram bar widening to -299.12, indicating persistently strengthening bearish momentum and no sign of the decline halting. Trading volume of 272,000 lots was below MA5 (317,300 lots), and the decline on shrinking volume suggests diminishing market participation. The daily position decrease of 4,467 lots indicates some bear profit-taking, but the trend has not yet reversed. SMM Comment: The dispute over administrative rights in the Strait of Hormuz persists, and the resumption of navigation through the strait remains uncertain. The US Fed’s hawkish pivot boosted the US dollar index, putting pressure on nonferrous metal prices. Macro headwinds drove aluminum prices lower both in and outside China. Bearish factors dominate in the short term, and aluminum prices are expected to remain in the doldrums. Today, alumina 2609 contract opened at 2,782 yuan/mt, rose to a high of 2,805 yuan/mt, dipped to a low of 2,771 yuan/mt, and finally settled at 2,786 yuan/mt, down 4 yuan/mt or 0.14% from the previous trading day. Trading volume was 158,800 lots, and open interest stood at 286,200 lots, with a daily position decrease of 569 lots. The price has broken below MA5 (2,803.6), MA30 (2,835.07), and MA60 (2,822.95), only temporarily holding below MA10 (2,846.4). MA5 has turned downward and is about to cross below MA60, a clear signal of a weakening moving average system. In the MACD indicator, DIFF (-6.18) has turned negative and is below DEA (6.65), with the histogram bar widening to -25.65, spreading downward after a death cross, indicating that short-term bearish momentum is dominant. Trading volume of 158,800 lots was below average volumes across all timeframes, and the decline on shrinking volume suggests a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market. SMM Comment: According to SMM statistics, as of last Thursday, China’s total alumina inventory edged down WoW. Inventory structure showed that aluminum smelters’ raw material inventory continued to destock slightly, but due to recent significant price fluctuations and divergent market outlooks, restocking willingness was weak, and end-users mostly stayed on the sidelines. In-factory inventory at alumina refineries decreased, mainly affected by phased maintenance at some northern enterprises, which prioritized consuming in-factory inventory amid production constraints. This impact is expected to gradually fade after maintenance concludes next week. Port inventory, meanwhile, continued to build up, with overseas port arrivals staying high and imported resources supplementing spot supply, adding market pressure. Overall, the oversupply pattern remains unchanged. Before Guinea’s bauxite quota policy is implemented, the market lacks clear bullish drivers. Next week, inventory is expected to shift from mild destocking to slight buildup, supply and demand will remain loose, and alumina prices will continue to consolidate in the doldrums. [The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment research advice. Clients should make prudent decisions and not use this as a substitute for independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to Shanghai Metals Market.]

Nickel 28 Capital reported strong fiscal Q1 2027 results, driven by stable operations at the Ramu Nickel-Cobalt project in Papua New Guinea. During the quarter ended April 30, 2026, Ramu produced 8,785 mt of contained nickel and 855 mt of contained cobalt in MHP, while sales reached 8,632 mt of nickel and 838 mt of cobalt. Net production costs were US$2.81/lb of contained nickel. Nickel 28 recorded a US$4.0 million share of operating profit from Ramu and posted net profit of US$2.1 million, supported by favorable nickel and cobalt prices, strong payability, and relatively low operating costs.