Discounts in the three regions widened to varying degrees from the beginning of the year to May, which was directly related to the sustained suppression of spot circulation by high inventory earlier. After entering June, as the destocking inflection point has gradually been established, premiums and discounts in the three regions have shown a divergent recovery trend...

[Stagflation Expectations Heat Up Combined with China Inventory Buildup, Divergence Between SHFE and LME Aluminum Continues] Overall, geopolitical risks outside China persisted and supply tightened, keeping LME aluminum prices on a relatively strong footing; high inventory levels in China combined with weak demand limited SHFE upside room, with a clear divergence between SHFE and LME price trends.

As of April 24, the mainstream price in the south China market — SMM A00 aluminum (Foshan) was at a discount of 345 yuan/mt against the 2605 contract, while the mainstream price in the east China market — SMM A00 aluminum was at a discount of 130 yuan/mt against the 2605 contract. The price spread between the two regions had exceeded 200 yuan/mt, covering sea freight, short-haul transfer, and logistics costs, officially opening up the transshipment window between Guangdong and Shanghai...

According to SMM data, as of April 24, social inventory of aluminum ingots in China's major consumption regions stood at 1.465 million mt, up 42,000 mt WoW, maintaining an inventory buildup trend for multiple consecutive weeks, with the pace of buildup widening again WoW. Weekly warehouse withdrawals rebounded slightly by 14,200 mt WoW to 115,200 mt, but the improvement in withdrawals fell short of the recent increase in arrivals, indicating clearly insufficient momentum for inventory drawdown..

Entering the second half of March, regional divergence in China’s aluminum market became increasingly pronounced, with the divergence between inventory trends and spot price spreads in east China and south China intensifying. On the one hand, the nationwide post-holiday inventory buildup in aluminum gradually approached its end, inventory overhang pressure in east China continued to ease, circulation efficiency steadily improved, the inventory buildup momentum slowed down significantly, and.....

Before and after the Chinese New Year, the domestic spot aluminum market exhibited significant regional differentiation, with the spot price spread between South China (Foshan) and East China (Wuxi) drawing particular attention. Before the holiday, the Guangdong-Shanghai price spread reached a high of 150 yuan/mt on February 10, while by February 27 after the holiday, this spread had narrowed significantly to 10 yuan/mt.....

Processing Fees for Aluminum Billets in Southern China Approach Yearly High—Coincidence or Inevitability? [SMM Analysis] As of November 28, the processing fees of φ120 aluminum billets in South China (centered on Foshan) were quoted at 390 yuan/mt, while those of φ90 aluminum billets were quoted at 440 yuan/mt, having accumulated an increase of over 200 yuan/mt from the monthly low and approaching the annual highs of 470 and 520 yuan/mt in 2025. Although there were fluctuations in Wuxi and Nanchang, the fees also showed significant recovery from the mid-month lows. The strong performance in late November appeared to be a short-term pulse driven by the pullback in aluminum prices and concentrated restocking, but in reality, it was an inevitable outcome under the seasonal pattern of the aluminum billet market in November—short-term price pullbacks as accidental factors only acted as a "catalyst," while the core support was...

Regarding aluminum billet inventory, according to SMM statistics, the inventory of aluminum billets in major domestic consumption areas stood at 1.6 million mt on July 10, an increase of 500 mt from Monday and an increase of 6,500 mt from last Thursday on a WoW basis. Since the inventory buildup turning point was established in mid-June, the inventory level has continued to rise, reaching the highest level for the same period in three years, reflecting the increasing pressure on the aluminum billet supply side. Regionally, the Foshan market has become the main area of inventory increase due to continuously weakening demand and ongoing arrivals at warehouses. The Wuxi region has also seen an increase in inventory driven by weakening just-in-time procurement of extrusions in surrounding areas, dragging down consumption. In the Nanchang region, a slight destocking has been observed due to the narrowing of the Guangdong-Shanghai price spread and fewer arrivals. Although there have been reports of production cuts among aluminum billet manufacturers, the impact of the off-season and high temperatures has severely suppressed downstream demand for aluminum billets. Therefore, the current production cuts by aluminum billet manufacturers cannot halt the inventory buildup rhythm.