According to foreign media reports, PT Freeport Indonesia is continuing development of the Kucing Liar underground copper-gold mine within the Grasberg minerals district in Central Papua, with initial mining targeted for 2029 and production expected to ramp up thereafter. The project is being developed as a long-term source of replacement supply as production from the Deep Mill Level Zone declines. Development of the underground deposit has been underway for several years and requires substantial investment in mine access and supporting underground infrastructure. Recent reports indicate that approximately $1.4 billion has already been invested, with a further roughly $4 billion expected through 2033 as development progresses. At full operating rates, Kucing Liar is expected to process approximately 130,000 tonnes of ore per day and produce around 750 million lb of copper annually, equivalent to roughly 340,000 tonnes, alongside approximately 735,000 oz of gold. Freeport-McMoRan currently estimates that the deposit could contribute more than 8 billion lb of copper through 2041. From a copper-market perspective, Kucing Liar represents a significant source of prospective long-term mine supply from the Grasberg district. Its development is particularly important because it is intended to help offset declining output from mature underground areas and sustain Freeport Indonesia's large-scale copper production over the longer term.

[SMM Analysis: High Imports Yet Lower TCs: Why China’s Copper Concentrate Market Is Getting Tighter amid Rising Purchases] In H1 2026, China’s copper concentrate imports stayed high but edged down YoY, with the pace of imports slowing noticeably in Q2 compared with Q1. At the same time, new and expanded smelting capacity continued to come onstream, and growth in copper concentrate demand outpaced the increase in import supply, driving spot TCs further down. On July 24, the SMM Imported Copper Concentrate Index (weekly) fell to -$154.76/dmt, further highlighting the contradiction of high imports coexisting with deeply negative TCs. Looking ahead to H2, stockpiling, feeding, and production ramp-up at three new smelting projects in China will add to rigid procurement demand. Higher production from Oyu Tolgoi, a seasonal recovery in South American mine output, and shipments of some stockpiled ore are expected to support a QoQ increase in China’s copper concentrate imports. However, the resumption of production at Grasberg will still take time, and local smelting capacity in Indonesia and Africa continues to absorb domestically produced concentrates, meaning that increases in overseas mine production may not proportionally translate into accessible supply for China. China’s copper concentrate imports are expected to remain high in H2 and rebound somewhat from H1, but the global supply-demand “hard deficit” for copper concentrates is unlikely to ease in the short term, and freely tradable, suitable supply will stay tight. In the absence of large-scale, sustained production cuts on the smelting side, spot TCs are more likely to show an L-shaped pattern of low-level operation with intermittent rebounds, and the configuration of rising imports alongside negative TCs will persist.

Freeport-McMoRan reported on Thursday that Q2 copper production declined, while Q2 profit exceeded expectations, as higher copper prices offset the impact of lower output at its Grasberg mine in Indonesia.Copper's average realized price for the quarter was $6.17 per pound, compared with $4.54 a year earlier.Freeport-McMoRan, headquartered in Phoenix, Arizona, suspended operations at its Grasberg mine in Indonesia after approximately 800,000 metric tons of wet material flooded the site on September 8.

On July 24, the SMM Imported Copper Concentrate Index (weekly) was reported at -$154.76/dmt, down $8.61/dmt from the previous reading of -$146.15/dmt. The 20% grade domestic trade ore payable indicator came in at 98%-99.5%, up 0.25% from the prior period. This week, transaction volumes in the copper concentrates spot market decreased from last week, with some mines conducting tenders. In spot transactions, a trader sold 10,000 mt of clean ore for September shipment to a smelter at an index minus $20/dmt, QP: M+1/M+5; a trader sold 20,000 mt of clean ore for Q4 shipment to a smelter at an index minus $20/dmt, QP: M+1/M+5; a trader sold approximately 2,000 mt of clean ore in containers for August-September shipment to a smelter at an index minus $18-19/dmt, with a container premium in single digits, QP: M+1/M+5. In terms of mine tenders, regarding the previously offered Red Chris by Newnomont, market rumors suggest that the transaction price for 20,000 mt for trader-side shipments in September 2026 and Q4 was around -$225/dmt, while the 2027 20,000 mt transaction price was in the range of -$220/dmt to -$200/dmt. For a large mine's tender of South American clean ore, the trader-side transaction price was -$230/dmt for 10,000 mt, QP: M+1/M+4, with September shipment; the smelter-side transaction price was -$158/dmt for 10,000 mt, QP: M+1/M+4, with September shipment. For the OT mine tender, trader-side prices were -$230/dmt for September-December shipment, QP: M+1/M+4 (buyer's option), and -$225/dmt for November-December shipment, QP: M+1/M+4 (buyer's option); smelter-side prices were -$160/dmt for September-December shipment, QP: M+1/M+3 (buyer's option). In addition, according to market sources, KAZ is conducting tenders for Aktogay and Bozshakol copper concentrates, with results yet to be announced. Overall, spot transactions this week were still dominated by the index-minus model, but the pace of further widening of discounts slowed down compared with earlier. The downward momentum in trader-side tender prices also slowed noticeably; however, smelter-side transaction prices continued to decline, with procurement conditions worsening and raw material procurement pressure intensifying. On July 23, Freeport-McMoRan disclosed during its Q2 earnings call that the resumption of production at the underground Block Cave project at the Grasberg mine in Indonesia is progressing as expected. Currently, the ramp-up of production blocks 2 and 3 is advancing in accordance with the plan set in April. Previously, affected by a mud rush incident at the underground mine in September 2025, Grasberg partially suspended production. The company subsequently initiated cleaning, repair, and phased production resumption work. According to Freeport, Grasberg Block Cave completed repairs in Q1 2026, began production ramp-up in March, and reached planned operating levels in Q2. Currently, the company expects that Grasberg’s capacity will recover to about 65% in H2 2026, further increase to about 80% by mid-2027, and it plans to approach full operation by the end of 2027. Recently, heavy rainfall and high-altitude snowfall hit central Chile and the Atacama region, prompting multiple copper mines to initiate winter emergency measures. Antofagasta Minerals’ Los Pelambres temporarily restricted access to the mine site and proactively reduced non-critical operations; no full suspension has been reported so far. Codelco’s Andina suspended surface operations, while El Teniente temporarily halted open-pit ore transport due to snow accumulation on slopes. Among these, Caserones was the most significantly affected. Lundin Mining stated that the mine had been shut down since July 18 due to heavy snow, limited road access, and an on-site power outage, and was currently relying on backup generators to maintain critical activities, with production expected to resume after power restoration and improved access conditions. As of July 24, the company had not yet issued a resumption notice, but Lundin Mining maintained its full-year production guidance. Overall, this disruption was mainly concentrated in central Chile and some high-altitude mining areas, while the major copper mines in the far north largely maintained operations, and no widespread nationwide shutdowns had occurred. On July 24, SMM copper concentrate inventories at eleven ports stood at 661,500 mt in physical content, up 13,300 mt in physical content from July 17. The main increases came from Yantai Port and Qingdao Port, up 32,100 mt and 20,000 mt WoW, respectively; the main decreases were from Qinzhou Port and Huludao Port, down 18,000 mt and 7,000 mt WoW, respectively.

During Freeport-McMoRan’s Q2 earnings call, the company disclosed that the block cave underground project resumption of production at the Grasberg mine in Indonesia is progressing in line with expectations, with ramp-up at Production Block 2 and Block 3 proceeding according to the plan formulated in April. Production at Grasberg was partially suspended earlier due to the September 2025 wet ore inflow incident in the underground mine, after which the company initiated cleaning, repairs, and phased production resumptions. According to Freeport, repair work at the Grasberg Block Cave was completed in Q1 2026, and production resumption ramp-up began in March, reaching planned operating levels in Q2. The company currently expects Grasberg capacity to recover to approximately 65% in H2 2026, further improve to around 80% by mid-2027, and plans to approach full capacity by the end of 2027. On production, Freeport expects the Grasberg mine to produce a cumulative total of approximately 6.8 billion pounds of copper from 2026 to 2030, averaging about 1.4 billion pounds per year. Copper production is expected to rebound significantly after 2027 as the Block Cave capacity gradually resumes. Additionally, Freeport noted that Grasberg still has expansion potential, with the Kucing Liar project under development. Ramp-up is expected to begin around 2030, with an expected incremental copper capacity addition of 750 million pounds per year once full production is achieved.

Looking ahead to H2, macro attention should be on the US Fed’s subsequent interest rate hike moves and the pending results of the Section 232 tariff survey.

SMM Morning Meeting Minutes: Last Friday evening, LME copper opened at $13,624.5/mt. In the early session, it experienced wild swings and dipped to $13,575.5/mt. Subsequently, the center of copper prices shifted upward, reaching a high of $13,678/mt, before fluctuating downward to finally close at $13,635/mt, up 0.18%. Trading volume reached 16,200 lots, and open interest stood at 269,000 lots, a decrease of 3,435 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bears reducing positions. Last Friday evening, the most-traded SHFE copper 2607 contract opened at 104,870 yuan/mt. In the early session, the center of copper prices fluctuated downward, touching a low of 104,420 yuan/mt. Subsequently, it fluctuated upward, reaching 105,280 yuan/mt, before moving sideways to finally close at 105,090 yuan/mt, up 0.58%. Trading volume reached 33,600 lots, and open interest stood at 172,000 lots, an increase of 627 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bulls adding positions.

Preliminary data indicated that global copper mine production in Q1 2026 was basically flat, with copper concentrates production declining by 1.1%, offset by a 3.3% increase in solvent extraction-electrodeposition (SX-EW) production.Although global mine production benefited from additional output from capacity ramp-up at projects in several countries, significant declines in copper concentrates production in Chile, the DRC, and Indonesia offset global growth.In Indonesia, copper concentrates production at the Grasberg mine fell by 42%, as the severe mud inflow event that occurred in September last year continued to impact production at the mine.

The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) released preliminary data on global copper supply and demand for March 2026 in its monthly bulletin published in May 2026. Preliminary data indicated that global copper mine production in Q1 2026 was basically flat, with copper concentrates production declining by 1.1%, offset by a 3.3% increase in solvent extraction-electrodeposition (SX-EW) production. Although global mine production benefited from additional output driven by capacity ramp-up of projects in several countries, significant declines in copper concentrates production in Chile, the DRC, and Indonesia offset global growth. In Indonesia, copper concentrates production at the Grasberg mine fell by 42%, as the severe mud inflow incident that occurred in September last year continued to affect the mine's production. Chile's mine production declined by 5.8%, with increased production at the Collahuasi and Quebrada Blanca mines offset by production cuts at the Spence, El Teniente, Escondida, and Los Pelambres mines. The DRC's mine production is estimated to have grown by only 0.5%: SX-EW production increased by approximately 10%, but was partially offset by a 36% decline in copper concentrates production due to reduced output at the Kamoa mine (affected by the 2025 earthquake event). In Peru, copper mine production grew by 3.3%, primarily driven by increased production at the Antamina, Las Bambas, and Antapaccay mines, which more than offset production declines at Southern Peru Copper, Quellaveco, and Marcobre. Mongolia's copper concentrates production is estimated to have grown by approximately 36%, benefiting from the capacity ramp-up of the Oyu Tolgoi underground project. Preliminary data indicated that global copper cathode production grew by approximately 4.5% in Q1 2026, with primary copper (electrolysis and ore electrodeposition) production increasing by 3.8% and secondary copper (from scrap) production increasing by 7.6%. China and the DRC, which currently account for approximately 60% of global production, saw their combined production increase by an estimated 9% (China 8.8%, DRC 10%). Excluding these two countries, global copper cathode production declined by approximately 1.4%. Chile's copper cathode production fell by 11.7%, with copper cathode (from concentrates) production declining by 24% due to smelter operational constraints and maintenance, and electrodeposition copper production declining by 5.7%. Production in Asia (excluding China) is estimated to have declined by 4%, mainly due to production decreases in Japan, Indonesia, and the Philippines. India's production is estimated to have grown by 25%, benefiting from improved capacity utilization rates and the capacity ramp-up of the Adani smelter. Global secondary refined copper production (from scrap) increased by 7.6%, mainly driven by growth in China. Preliminary data indicated that global apparent refined copper usage grew by 0.8% in Q1 2026. Although global usage excluding China was estimated to have grown by 1.7%, China's apparent demand (excluding bonded warehouse/unreported inventory changes) was estimated to be basically flat, affected by a 40% decline in China's net imports of copper cathode. China currently accounts for approximately 58% of total global refined copper usage. The preliminary global refined copper supply-demand balance indicated an oversupply of 396,000 mt in Q1 2026. In compiling the global market balance, ICSG used China's apparent demand calculation method, which does not account for changes in unreported inventories. However, to facilitate global market analysis, an adjustment item has been added to the attached tables — "Global refined copper balance adjusted for Chinese bonded warehouse inventory changes" — which adjusts the global refined copper balance based on the average bonded warehouse inventory change estimates from two Chinese copper market consultancies. In Q1 2026, the global refined copper balance based on China's apparent usage (excluding bonded warehouse/unreported inventory changes) showed a preliminary oversupply of approximately 396,000 mt, compared with an oversupply of approximately 135,000 mt in the same period of 2025. The global refined copper balance adjusted for estimated changes in Chinese bonded warehouse inventories showed a market oversupply of approximately 386,000 mt. Copper Prices and Inventories: Based on the average estimates from two independent consultancies, Chinese bonded warehouse inventories were estimated to have decreased by approximately 10,000 mt from the end of 2025 levels during the first three months of 2026. As of the end of April 2026, copper inventories at major metal exchanges (LME, COMEX, SHFE) totaled 1,148,760 mt, the highest level since January 2003. Inventories increased by 404,648 mt, or 55%, from the end of December 2025, with LME up 253,350 mt, Shanghai Futures Exchange up 46,683 mt, and COMEX up 104,615 mt. The LME spot copper average price in April was $12,891.38 per mt, up 3% from the March average price of $12,498.98 per mt. The 2026 copper price high and low were $14,097 per mt (May 13) and $11,826 per mt (March 19), respectively, with a year-to-date average price of $12,947.22 per mt, up 30% from the 2025 average price. Global Refined Copper Supply and Demand Trends Notes: 1/ Refers to apparent usage 2/ Refined copper balance = production - usage 3/ Seasonally adjusted balance data 4/ Global refined copper balance adjusted for estimated changes in Chinese bonded warehouse inventories (Wenhua Composite)

I. Market Status: Negative TCs Enter Triple Digits, Structural Tightening in Copper Concentrate Supply-Demand As global smelter capacity continues to climb, China, as the world's largest copper smelting country, faces a continuously declining self-sufficiency rate in copper concentrates and rising external dependency. Compounded by geopolitical crises, production cuts by ex-China miners, declining mine grades, and frequent production accidents, the copper industry has undergone a dramatic shift from "tight balance" to "structural deficit." Currently, the global copper concentrate market has fallen into a state of persistently tight supply. On May 15, the SMM Imported Copper Concentrate Index (weekly) reported -$102.84/dmt, breaking through the -$100/dmt threshold for the first time in history, setting a record negative depth. The payable indicator for 20%-grade domestic trade ore was 97.5%-98.5%, up 0.5 percentage points MoM. Supply-side factors driving TCs persistently lower continue to accumulate. 1) Full production resumptions at Freeport's Grasberg mine have fallen short of expectations. According to Freeport's Q1 earnings call, the company plans to achieve full production resumptions by the end of 2027; 2) The Peruvian government signed Emergency Decree No. 003-2026 on May 11, triggering widespread market concerns over the country's energy supply and copper mine output; 3) Geopolitical disruptions—the continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has driven sulfur prices persistently higher, pushing smelting acid prices to rise continuously. With smelting profits climbing, smelters' purchase willingness has increased, driving copper concentrate TCs persistently lower. Customs data showed that China's copper ore and concentrate imports in April 2026 were 2.352 million mt in physical content, down 19.57% YoY; cumulative imports from January to April were 9.915 million mt in physical content, down 0.8% compared to the same period last year. Since December 2020, China's copper concentrate cumulative imports had maintained positive YoY growth; this marks the first decline in over five years. II. Smelter Operating Rates Stay High Contrary to the intuition of "industry-wide losses" implied by deeply negative TCs, operating rates at China's copper smelters have not experienced a cliff-like decline. From a pure smelting perspective, operating willingness and actual profitability across different types of enterprises show significant divergence. Under the extreme environment of deeply negative TCs, the core reason China's copper smelters can maintain relatively resilient operations is that by-product revenues are becoming the key variable determining break-even. Meanwhile, China's copper cathode production declined MoM due to the maintenance peak. SMM data showed that China's copper cathode production in April fell 2.26% MoM. Cumulative copper cathode production from January to April 2026 reached 4.7067 million mt. However, according to SMM, some smelters postponed their maintenance plans or completed crude smelting maintenance ahead of schedule to capture revenue from the by-product sulphuric acid. III. Breakdown of Smelter Profit Sources (i) Sulphuric Acid: The Strongest Profit Contributor at the Current Stage Sulphuric acid is currently the most important by-product profit source for smelters. In pyrometallurgy-based copper cathode production, approximately 3-4 mt of sulphuric acid is produced as a by-product for every 1 mt of copper cathode. As of May 15, the SMM China Copper Smelting Acid Index stood at 1,665 yuan/mt, up 83.7% from the beginning of the year. Sulphuric acid prices currently stay high, meaning sulphuric acid revenue can offset a considerable portion of the revenue loss caused by negative TCs. However, this "sulphuric acid moat" is facing policy challenges. China suspended exports of ordinary industrial sulphuric acid and smelting by-product sulphuric acid starting in May for a period of 8 months. The export ban is not intended to suppress domestic sulphuric acid prices, but rather to prioritize domestic supply for agricultural phosphate fertiliser production and strategic industries such as new energy. Demand side, overall sulphuric acid demand remains tight. Although downstream sectors including phosphate fertiliser, titanium dioxide, and new energy materials saw declining operating rates due to high-priced raw materials, just-in-time procurement still exists. Meanwhile, the supply side is also constrained by concentrated smelter maintenance and high sulphur-based acid production costs, with industry-wide capacity utilization rates at low levels. Cost side, firm sulphur prices provide bottom support for sulphuric acid; supply side, concentrated maintenance limits downside room; demand side, although weak, has not yet formed a substantial enough impact to break down high prices. This means sulphuric acid continues to serve as a profit pillar for smelters. (ii) Precious Metal Recovery: "Incremental Game" Under High Copper Prices In addition, copper concentrates typically contain associated precious metals such as gold and silver, which can be recovered through anode slime processing during smelting. Copper prices are currently at historically high levels, and gold prices also fluctuate at highs, greatly enhancing the economics of precious metal recovery. According to SMM market sources, when gold and silver prices are at high levels, raw materials with impurities rich in gold and silver are assigned extremely high added value. The profit contribution of precious metal recovery to smelters is reflected in: smelters can achieve recovery utilization rates exceeding the gold and silver payable indicators through refined processing, profiting from spot smelting revenue. This portion of revenue is often a significant component of smelters' comprehensive profit structure. However, as gold and silver prices continue to rise, suppliers in the copper concentrates spot trade are simultaneously raising gold and silver payable indicators. The continuously rising precious metal payable indicators and payable benchmark pose an increasingly severe challenge to smelter profitability. IV. Future Trends: Coexistence of Industry Landscape Evolution and Technology Upgrade Requirements However, industry chain profits are irreversibly shifting toward the upstream ore side. Under the medium and long-term landscape of persistently tightening copper concentrates supply and demand, the scarcity value of the resource side is being reassessed by the market. As the copper concentrates supply-demand gap persists over the medium and long-term horizon, and smelters' bargaining power will remain under pressure over the long term. The market is widely concerned about whether TC can quickly pull back in tandem once the continuously rising sulphuric acid prices reach a turning point. Facing the long-term trend of profit squeeze at the mine end and losses in the smelting segment, the future landscape of the copper smelting industry will evolve in the following directions: Direction 1: Integrated consolidation extending upstream. Enterprises with upstream mine assets will have a significant advantage in profitability. Direction 2: Technological upgrades to achieve differentiated competition. Against the backdrop of narrowing profit margins from non-payable metals, the technological barriers of smelters will become increasingly important. Those who can more efficiently extract valuable metals from low-grade ore or complex ore will seize the initiative in the industry reshuffle. Under the extreme environment of persistently negative TCs, sulphuric acid by-product revenue and precious metal recovery are the core profit pillars currently sustaining smelter operations. The supply-demand pattern dictates that the pricing power and profit margins at the mine end will continue to outperform those at the smelting end. The copper smelting industry is transitioning from the traditional model of "earning TCs" to a new competitive landscape of "resource control + technological barriers + integrated operations."