SMM, April 3: In early trading, SHFE aluminum 2604 fluctuated upward, while its center moved lower than the previous day. Supported by downstream pre-holiday restocking, buying sentiment rose sharply today, prompting sellers to lift quotes. Market transactions were mainly concentrated from the average discount of SMM A00 aluminum to a premium of 20 yuan/mt. Today, the shipments sentiment index in the east China market was 3.34, down 0.09 MoM; the purchasing sentiment index was 3.55, up 0.54 MoM. In the central China market, downstream restocking sentiment was strong, and purchasing sentiment exceeded shipments sentiment, prompting sellers to lift quotes and driving market offers and transaction prices higher throughout the day. Ultimately, actual transaction prices in the central China market were around a premium of 30-40 yuan/mt over the central China price. Today, the shipments sentiment index in the central China market was 2.7, down 0.09 MoM; the purchasing sentiment index was 2.49, up 0.06 MoM. Inventory side, aluminum ingot inventory in major consumption regions fell by 2,000 mt MoM today, with destocking mainly coming from Wuxi and Gongyi.

SMM News, April 1: In early trading, SHFE aluminum 2604 fluctuated downward, with its center holding flat from the previous day. Affected by elevated aluminum prices, downstream purchasing enthusiasm was not high, with procurement mainly based on orders and little inventory buildup. Market sentiment to ship was relatively strong, and spot availability was ample, driving a wider spread in market transaction premiums. Market transactions were mainly concentrated at discounts of 10 yuan/mt to the SMM A00 aluminum average price. Today, the east China market shipment sentiment index was 3.41, up 0.1 MoM; the buying sentiment index was 3, down 0.11 MoM. With the arrival of the first trading day of April, downstream processing enterprises in the central China market entered a new order cycle, and purchase sentiment improved significantly from the previous day, driving a simultaneous increase in traders' purchase volumes. Market trading turned more active, and overall trading volume rose sharply. As trading volume increased, market transaction prices gradually moved higher, with actual transaction prices in the central China market ultimately hovering around parity to a discount of 40 yuan against the central China price. Today, the central China market shipment sentiment index was 2.76, up 0.02 MoM; the buying sentiment index was 2.42, up 0.1 MoM. Inventory side, aluminum ingot inventory in major consumption regions increased by 3,500 mt from the previous period today, with the inventory buildup mainly coming from Gongyi and Guangdong. In the short term, after the Chinese New Year, aluminum ingot inventory continued its seasonal buildup. Affected by bullish sentiment, premiums were expected to maintain a narrowing trend.

Entering the second half of March, regional divergence in China’s aluminum market became increasingly pronounced, with the divergence between inventory trends and spot price spreads in east China and south China intensifying. On the one hand, the nationwide post-holiday inventory buildup in aluminum gradually approached its end, inventory overhang pressure in east China continued to ease, circulation efficiency steadily improved, the inventory buildup momentum slowed down significantly, and.....

SMM, March 27: Inventory side, aluminum ingot inventory in mainstream consumption regions increased by 1,500 mt from the previous period today, while destocking was mainly seen in Gongyi and Guangdong. In the short term, aluminum ingot inventory continued seasonal inventory buildup after the Chinese New Year. Affected by bullish sentiment, premiums are expected to maintain a narrowing trend.

SMM News, March 27: In the morning session, SHFE aluminum 2604 fluctuated downward, while its center was higher than the previous day. Affected by the rise in futures, shipment sentiment increased from yesterday today, though some sellers still held back from selling, and sellers showed a strong willingness to hold prices firm. Today, mainstream transaction prices in the market were concentrated at premiums of 10-20 yuan/mt against the SHFE aluminum 04 contract. Today, the shipment sentiment index in the east China market was 2.92, up 0.29 MoM; the purchasing sentiment index was 3.22, down 0.17 MoM. Over the past two days, aluminum prices continued to fluctuate, with bullish and bearish sentiment intertwined in the central China market. As the weekend approached, downstream processing enterprises saw stockpiling demand fall short of expectations, and purchasing traders remained cautious, with no large-scale procurement or stockpiling. After 9:30, market trading became increasingly sluggish, with the market overall tending to expand discounts for transactions. Suppliers showed low willingness to hold prices firm, and final actual transaction prices were around parity with the central China price to a discount of 20 yuan against the central China price. Today, the shipment sentiment index in the central China market was 2.65, up 0.01 MoM; the purchasing sentiment index was 2.38, down 0.03 MoM. Inventory side, aluminum ingot inventory in major consumption regions increased 1,500 mt MoM today, with destocking mainly coming from Gongyi and Guangdong. In the short term, after the Chinese New Year, aluminum ingot inventory continued its seasonal buildup, and supported by bullish market sentiment, premiums are expected to remain on a narrowing trend.

[Overnight, LME Aluminum and SHFE Aluminum Edged Up Slightly, but Aluminum Prices Faced Short-Term Pressure at High Levels] Continued destocking in LME inventory provided bottom support for LME aluminum, but amid tightening fund liquidity and profit-taking by bulls, upward momentum remained insufficient, and the backwardation structure weakened somewhat. China’s social inventory rose to a high for the same period in nearly five years, and the inventory buildup cycle had yet to end, with high inventory and weak spot fundamentals jointly weighing on upward momentum. The divergence between domestic and overseas drivers continued, the SHFE/LME price ratio kept weakening, and prices were mainly under pressure in the short term.

SMM, March 24: SHFE aluminum 2604 fluctuated downward in early trading, slightly higher than the previous trading day. Overall market buying sentiment was relatively good, and sellers held prices firm as aluminum prices remained at relatively low levels. Today’s mainstream transaction prices were concentrated at SHFE aluminum 04 contract +10 yuan/mt. Today, the east China market shipments sentiment index was 2.79, up 0.07 MoM; the purchasing sentiment index was 3.34, up 0.04 MoM. As aluminum prices extended their decline, traders in the central China market showed weak purchase sentiment. With the month-end settlement date approaching, suppliers made heavy shipments and showed limited willingness to hold prices firm. Downstream processing enterprises were wary of further price declines, with no expectation of large-scale stockpiling at low prices for now. Overall market purchase activity was sluggish, and prices showed a continued price collapse trend. Ultimately, actual transaction prices in the central China market were concentrated in the range from a premium of 20 yuan over the central China price to a discount of 20 yuan to the central China price. Today, the central China market shipments sentiment index was 2.63, flat MoM; the purchasing sentiment index was 2.4, down 0.08 MoM. Inventory side, aluminum ingot inventory in major consumption areas increased by 6,500 mt MoM today, with destocking mainly coming from Gongyi and Guangdong. In the short term, after the Chinese New Year, aluminum ingot inventory continued to see seasonal inventory buildup. Affected by bullish sentiment, premiums are expected to remain on a narrowing trend.

SMM News, March 20: In the morning session, SHFE aluminum 2604 fluctuated downward, with the price center falling sharply from the previous trading day. Affected by the decline in aluminum prices, overall purchasing sentiment rose today, prompting sellers to hold prices firm. Mainstream transaction prices in the market today were concentrated around the average price of the SHFE aluminum 04 contract to +20 yuan/mt. Today, the east China market shipments sentiment index was 3.2, up 0.06 MoM; the purchasing sentiment index was 3.23, up 0.07 MoM. Today, SHFE aluminum futures prices plunged sharply. Coupled with downstream processing enterprises' procurement and stockpiling demand ahead of the weekend market closure, overall buying sentiment in the central China market was high, with strong bullish sentiment. Suppliers showed a strong willingness to hold prices firm, and there was no downward trend in market quotations. However, the pass-through of prices to downstream enterprises resulted in relatively limited premiums. Ultimately, the overall quotation range in the central China market was concentrated at central China prices plus 10 yuan to plus 60 yuan, while actual mainstream transaction prices were concentrated at central China prices plus 30 yuan to plus 40 yuan. Today, the central China market shipments sentiment index was 2.61, up 0.03 MoM; the purchasing sentiment index was 2.51, up 0.08 MoM. Inventory side, aluminum ingot inventory in mainstream consumption regions fell by 3,000 mt MoM today, with destocking mainly coming from Wuxi and Gongyi. In the short term, after the Chinese New Year, aluminum ingot inventory has continued its seasonal buildup. Affected by bullish market sentiment, premiums are expected to maintain a narrowing trend.

[Geopolitical Tensions Combined With Deferred Interest Rate Cut Expectations Leave SHFE Aluminum Under Short-Term Pressure but Fluctuating at Highs] Against the backdrop of continued tightening LME liquidity, LME aluminum still has upward momentum, with strong support from prices outside China, and is expected to maintain a backwardation structure in the short term. China remains in a phase of high inventory coupled with weak fundamentals, and its upward momentum is significantly weaker than that outside China. Amid divergent domestic and external drivers, the SHFE/LME price ratio is expected to continue weakening, and aluminum prices are still expected to fluctuate at highs in the short term.

SMM, March 17: The SHFE aluminum 04 contract opened higher and extended gains today, with strong bullish sentiment in the market. Sellers held prices firm, buyers showed greater price acceptance, and purchasing enthusiasm also increased. Today, mainstream quotations and transaction prices in the market were concentrated at -10 yuan/mt to +10 yuan/mt. Today, the east China market shipment sentiment index was 3.12, down 0.05 MoM; the purchasing sentiment index was 2.7, up 0.04 MoM. Today, futures prices opened lower and moved higher. Before the opening, quotations in the central China market were relatively high, mainly at discounts of 320-330 yuan/mt against the SHFE aluminum 04 contract, then prices gradually declined. Traders maintained strong bullish sentiment and high enthusiasm for purchase, with overall trading volume relatively large. As suppliers basically finished shipments, circulating spot availability became tight, and market quotations continued to rise, but the transaction scale was relatively small. In the end, the actual transaction price range in the central China market was around 10 yuan below the central China price to 40 yuan above the central China price. Today, the central China market shipment sentiment index was 2.6, down 0.02 MoM; the purchasing sentiment index was 2.38, up 0.02 MoM. Inventory side, aluminum ingot inventory in major consumption regions increased by 4,000 mt MoM today, with the inventory buildup mainly coming from Guangdong and Gongyi. In the short term, after the Chinese New Year, aluminum ingot inventory has continued its seasonal buildup. Affected by bullish market sentiment, premiums are expected to maintain a narrowing trend.