China’s net gold imports via Hong Kong in January rose by 68.7% from December, Hong Kong Census and Statistics Department data showed on Friday.

SMM May 27 News: Metal Market: As of the midday close, domestic market base metals were mostly down, with SHFE copper seeing a slight decline. SHFE lead fell by 0.36%, SHFE tin by 0.38%, SHFE zinc by 0.31%, SHFE aluminum rose by 0.35%, and SHFE nickel by 0.37%. In addition, alumina rose by 0.1%. Lithium carbonate fell by 1.55%, silicon metal by 3.59%, and polysilicon rose by 0.39%. The ferrous metals series all fell, with iron ore down by 0.29%, rebar by 1.1%, HRC by 0.9%, and stainless steel by 0.78%. In the coking coal and coke sector, coking coal fell by 1.57%, and coke by 1.58%. In the overseas metal market, as of 11:46 a.m., most LME metals fell, with LME copper down by 0.13%, LME aluminum by 0.32%, LME lead by 0.33%, LME zinc by 0.35%, LME tin up by 0.13%, and LME nickel by 0.73%. In the precious metals sector, as of 11:46 a.m., COMEX gold fell by 0.26%, and COMEX silver rose by 0.07%. Domestically, SHFE gold fell by 0.99%, and SHFE silver by 0.18%. Data from Swiss Customs on Tuesday showed that after precious metals were excluded from US import tariffs, Switzerland's gold imports from the US in April surged to the highest monthly level since at least 2012. As of the midday close, the most-traded contract for the Europe Containerized Freight Index rose by 0.11%, closing at 2034.6 points. As of 11:46 a.m. on May 27, midday futures market movements for some contracts: 》SMM Metal Spot Prices on May 27 Spot and Fundamentals Zinc: The transaction price for mainstream brand 0# zinc in the Ningbo market was around 22,875-22,980 yuan/mt. Conventional brands in Ningbo were quoted at a premium of 270 yuan/mt against the 2506 contract and at a premium of 90 yuan/mt against Shanghai spot. Mainstream quotes in the Ningbo region were against the 2506 contract... 》Click for details Macro Front Domestic: [China-EU Semiconductor Industry Symposium: Firmly Opposing Unilateralism and Bullying, Striving to Maintain Global Semiconductor Supply Chain Security and Stability] According to the Ministry of Commerce website, the China-EU Semiconductor Industry Symposium was held in Beijing on May 27. Relevant departments of the Ministry of Commerce, the China Semiconductor Industry Association, the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China, and representatives from over 40 Chinese and European semiconductor industry enterprises attended the meeting. The meeting focused on deepening economic and trade cooperation in the semiconductor sector between China and the EU. It was emphasized that both China and the EU hold significant positions in the global semiconductor supply chain, and strengthening cooperation aligns with the interests of both sides. Given the complex and severe international situation, with increasing uncertainties, China will continue to expand high-level opening-up, providing enterprises with a fair, stable, transparent, and predictable policy environment. It supports Chinese and European semiconductor enterprises in fully leveraging their complementary advantages, deepening economic and trade cooperation in compliance with laws and regulations, firmly opposing unilateralism and bullying, and striving to maintain the security and stability of the global semiconductor supply chain. Participants at the meeting unanimously agreed that currently, the security and stability of the global semiconductor production and supply chain are facing severe challenges. This symposium has provided a good platform for Chinese and European semiconductor upstream and downstream enterprises to enhance mutual understanding, boost trade confidence, and deepen exchanges and cooperation. Strengthening exchanges and cooperation in the semiconductor field between China and Europe will help inject new impetus into the global economic recovery and growth. (Caijing) [The Ministry of Finance will issue RMB 68 billion in government bonds in Hong Kong this year] With the approval of the State Council, the Ministry of Finance will issue RMB 68 billion in government bonds in the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region in six tranches in 2025. Among them, the first two tranches, totaling RMB 25 billion, have already been issued in February and April, respectively. The third tranche of RMB 12.5 billion in government bonds will be issued through tender on June 4, and the specific issuance arrangements will be announced on the Central Moneymarkets Unit (CMU) system of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority. [Jiangsu: Greater efforts to promote consumption upgrading, expand service consumption in key areas, and accelerate the development of new-type consumption] The Ninth Plenary Session of the 14th Jiangsu Provincial Committee of the Communist Party of China was held in Nanjing on May 27. The plenary session emphasized the need to strive for leadership in advancing deep-level reforms and high-level opening-up, accumulating greater impetus for forward development. Deepen the reform of market-oriented allocation of production factors and serve the construction of a unified national market. Further promote the construction of the "1+3" key functional areas and continuously optimize the provincial productivity layout. Make greater efforts to promote consumption upgrading, expand service consumption in key areas, explore new consumption scenarios, and accelerate the development of new-type consumption. Strengthen the protection of the legitimate rights and interests of various business entities, promote whole-chain approval optimization, whole-process fair supervision, and whole-cycle service optimization, and create a first-class business environment that is market-oriented, rule-of-law-based, and internationalized. Thoroughly implement the strategy of upgrading free trade pilot zones, promote the facilitation of cross-border trade, and steadily expand institutional opening-up. Continuously consolidate traditional markets, tap the potential of emerging markets, develop new forms and models of foreign trade, and actively expand international cooperation space. The People's Bank of China conducted RMB 215.5 billion in 7-day reverse repo operations today, with an operating interest rate of 1.40%, unchanged from the previous rate. As RMB 157 billion in 7-day reverse repos matured today, a net injection of RMB 58.5 billion was achieved. ► The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar in the interbank foreign exchange market on May 28 was 7.1894 RMB per US dollar. US dollar: As of 11:46, the US dollar index rose by 0.12% to 99.73. Data released on Tuesday showed that US consumer confidence ended a five-month losing streak, with consumer confidence improving in May. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari called for maintaining interest rates unchanged on Tuesday until the impact of tariff hikes on inflation becomes clearer. Markets await the US core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index due later this week for interest rate clues. However, a May 27 opinion poll released by the Detroit Regional Chamber in Michigan showed about 54% of respondents believe the Trump administration's tariff policies will negatively impact the state's economy. Regarding economic expectations, 62% consider the US economy currently weak or heading toward recession. Chamber officials stated these figures indicate widespread pessimism among state residents about the current US economic situation. Additionally, 79% believe tariffs will directly cause US goods prices to rise, increasing living costs. Other currencies: The Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut its official cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.25% on Wednesday (May 28), marking the sixth consecutive interest rate cut, aligning with 23 out of 24 economists' expectations. The decision passed with a 5:1 vote, reflecting committee concerns about economic prospects. (FX678) Data watch: Today's releases include the Eurozone's April ECB 1-year CPI expectations, 3-year CPI expectations, Germany's May seasonally adjusted unemployment rate and unemployment change, Australia's April Bureau of Statistics CPI (seasonally adjusted), New Zealand's May 28 official cash rate decision, France's Q1 GDP (final), and Switzerland's May Credit Suisse/CFA economic expectations index. Additionally, FOMC permanent voter and New York Fed President Williams will participate in a Bank of Japan Institute panel discussion, while the RBNZ will release its rate decision and monetary policy statement, followed by Governor Orr's press conference. Crude oil: As of 11:46, oil futures rose slightly, with WTI up 0.41% and Brent up 0.41%. The US ban on Chevron's Venezuelan crude exports raised supply tightness concerns, supporting prices. Tuesday reports indicated the US government authorized Chevron to retain Venezuelan assets but prohibited oil exports or expanded operations. In recent years, Chevron and other foreign firms received production/export authorizations, helping Venezuela's output rebound to about 1 million barrels/day. The API will release weekly crude inventory data at 04:30 Beijing time Thursday, followed by the EIA's report at 00:00 Friday. The release of both reports was postponed due to the US Memorial Day holiday on Monday. OPEC is scheduled to hold a plenary session on Wednesday. Three OPEC delegates stated that in the latest phase of meeting growing demand and plans to increase market share, OPEC may agree to further accelerate the pace of oil production increases. (Webstock Inc.) Spot Market Overview: ► As month-end approaches, suppliers are proactively reducing prices to sell off inventory, and spot premiums have dropped significantly. [SMM South China Spot Copper] ► Spot premiums and discounts continue to decline, with sluggish market transactions. [SMM North China Spot Copper] ► Ningbo Zinc: Traders continue to refuse to budge on prices, with premiums holding steady. [SMM Midday Review] Midday reviews of other metal spot markets will be updated later. Please refresh to view.

After falling to a low slightly above $3,100 last week, international gold prices staged another strong rebound this week amid escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the impact of Moody's downgrade of the US's Aaa sovereign credit rating, with overnight prices rebounding above the 3,300 integer mark once again. In response, Adam Gillard, an FICC analyst at Goldman Sachs, believes there is a clear logical support behind this trend: the buying power from China is returning once again. Specifically, gold buying initiated in the Chinese domestic market during the night session of the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) triggered a follow-up rally in the New York Mercantile Exchange (COMEX) market. The total open interest in COMEX increased by 3% (4% for silver), while the arbitrage spread between the two major markets, SHFE/CMX, widened significantly. Gillard particularly emphasized that despite gold prices having pulled back 8% from their highs, what impressed him was that the scale of gold holdings in China remained stable at a high level. This indicated that, unlike the typical behavior pattern of domestic momentum traders who tend to rush to buy amid continuous price rise and sell amid continuous price decline, the pullback in gold prices did not trigger a massive wave of selling. As shown in the chart below, the open interest in gold futures on the SHFE is now returning to high levels, having once again reached the highest level since Q4 2019. Meanwhile, the overall gold holdings in the Chinese market (ETF + Shanghai Gold Exchange + SHFE) also remain high. Note: Light blue represents gold prices, and dark blue represents overall gold holdings. Previously, Chinese customs data released on Tuesday showed that China's total gold imports last month reached 127.5 mt, hitting an 11-month high. Despite gold prices hitting record highs in April, touching $3,500 per ounce at one point, this import figure still surged 73% from March. Some institutions have suggested that the central bank's move to allocate new import quotas to some commercial banks in April may have been a key factor driving the surge in imports. In response, Goldman Sachs pointed out that China's gold imports (excluding central bank purchases) rebounded to a one-year high in April, likely related to arbitrage activities triggered by the pricing advantage of the Shanghai Gold Exchange over the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA). It is worth noting that despite gold prices remaining high overall, physical gold demand remains strong. This also explains, to some extent, why the premium level of gold prices on the Shanghai Gold Exchange has remained resilient—even as the precious metals market is currently facing a high-price environment. Note: Premium of gold prices on the Shanghai Gold Exchange. In fact, when gold prices surged last month, many market participants noticed the leading role of the Chinese market in the gold bull market. Goldman Sachs said at the time that the new highs and sharp corrections in gold prices over the past month "almost all occurred around the opening of the Chinese market" , and pointed out that the impact of capital flows through the Shanghai Gold Exchange and the Shanghai Futures Exchange on gold price trends was more significant than that of futures and options on the US New York Mercantile Exchange.

Driven by multiple positive factors, most Hong Kong-listed gold stocks strengthened. As of press time, Qomolangma Gold (01815.HK), Chifeng Gold (06693.HK), Zijin Mining (02899.HK), and Zhaojin Mining (01818.HK) rose by 13.22%, 7.60%, 7%, and 6.59%, respectively. Note: Performance of gold stocks On the news front, the UK, France, and Canada jointly pressured Israel to pause its military operations in Gaza, with the UK announcing the suspension of trade agreement negotiations with Israel. Additionally, reports indicated that US intelligence had discovered that Israel was planning to attack Iran's nuclear facilities. The escalating geopolitical tensions directly stimulated market risk-averse sentiment. Currently, COMEX gold prices have broken through the $3,300 mark, rising 0.68% as of press time, to trade at $3,335. Note: Performance of COMEX gold In addition to the above news, the fundamentals of gold are strongly supported. Surge in China's imports: In April, China's gold imports reached 127.5 mt, surging 73% MoM, hitting an 11-month high, reflecting robust domestic investment and consumer demand. Global central banks' gold purchases continue: The World Gold Council pointed out that in April, the Shanghai gold price denominated in RMB rose by 6.9%, the highest for the same period in nearly 19 years. Central banks' continuous gold purchases provide support for long-term prices. How do institutions view the subsequent performance of gold prices? In a recent report, Goldman Sachs' precious metals team maintained its forecast targets of $3,700/oz for gold prices by the end of 2025 and $4,000/oz by mid-2026. This judgment is based on two core factors: The combined impact of the US Fed's delayed interest rate cut and the decreased probability of an economic recession (the probability of a recession in the next 12 months falling from 45% to 35%) on the 2026 target price is only $15/oz, with the terminal interest rate expectation still anchored at 3.5%-3.75%; the mild shift of private sector asset allocation towards gold offsets the slight negative impact of improved cyclical macroeconomic conditions. Founder Securities believes that the current gold price is already at a relatively high level. Meanwhile, with the recent easing of external events such as the trade war, it may trigger some investors to take profits at high levels or central banks to slow down their gold purchases in the short term, leading to a phased correction in gold prices. However, from a medium and long-term perspective, against the backdrop of a declining US dollar credit, the initiation of the US Fed's interest rate cut cycle, and the continuous increase in gold purchases by global central banks, gold is expected to continue its long-term upward trend after short-term adjustments.

LME copper prices opened at $8858/mt and closed at $8867.5/mt overnight, up 0.05%, with the highest of $8880/mt and the lowest of $8776/mt.

Federal Reserve policy indicator: No rush to cut interest rates now! The death toll from the terrorist attack on the Moscow State Concert Hall rose to 140; the Japanese yen once devalued to its lowest level since 1990! S&P confirms the "AA+/A-1+" sovereign credit rating of the United States;

From January 22, the Indian government increased the import tariff on gold, silver and precious metal coins used in jewelry making from 11% to 15%, bringing it in line with the tariff on gold and silver bars. In a notification issued on Monday, the Indian Finance Ministry also increased import duties on spent catalysts containing precious metals from 10.1% to 14.35%.

According to data from the World Gold Council, China's gold imports increased by 64% year-on-year last year, the highest level since 2018.