The Middle East turmoil triggered by the joint military strikes launched by the United States and Israel against Iran has become the largest geopolitical black swan for the global primary aluminum market, potentially causing supply disruptions on the order of several million mt while also pushing up smelting costs. Coupled with risk-off market sentiment, aluminum price volatility may be amplified. Going forward, it is necessary to remain vigilant against risks such as escalation of the conflict, strait blockades, and raw material supply cutoffs, as well as further impacts on aluminum prices from macro disruptions, and to respond prudently to operational and investment risks arising from supply chain fluctuations.

According to the latest report from the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS), the global primary aluminum supply exceeded demand by 97,200 tonnes in June 2024, with a production of 5,903,100 tonnes and a consumption of 5,805,900 tonnes. In the first six months of this year, global primary aluminum production reached 35,448,100 tonnes, while consumption totaled 34,728,300 tonnes, resulting in an oversupply of 719,800 tonnes.