Event Summary: A safety incident occurred at the 750 level of the third underground mining area of West Ujimqin Banner Yinman Mine, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Xingye Silver&Tin (000426.SZ), resulting in one fatality. On July 28, the mining area of Yinman Mine was ordered to suspend production by the West Ujimqin Banner Emergency Management Bureau; on July 30, the bureau issued another decision (Document No. (Xi) Yingji Xianjue [2026] 260),.....

SMM, July 30: Iron ore futures continued to drift lower during the day session on July 30, closing down again and fully reflecting the dual bearish pressure from macro headwinds and fundamentals. Earlier macro tailwind expectations gradually fizzled out, and combined with a sharp increase in supply and persistently weak downstream demand, iron ore futures faced a double blow. By the close of the day session on July 30, iron ore extended its losing streak to a fifth consecutive trading day, falling 3.31% to 715 yuan/mt, with an intraday low of 712.5 yuan/mt—a new low since early July 2025. Fundamentals Supply: Weather disruptions outside China fade, port arrivals surge, and supply pressure climbs significantly Chart: SMM 35-port Inventory (10kt) Data Source: SMM In terms of supply: According to SMM shipping data, total global iron ore shipments tracked by SMM reached 27.82 million mt last week, down 10% WoW; cumulative shipments were up 1% YoY. Shipments from Australia and Brazil both edged down slightly, while shipments from non-mainstream countries fell WoW, though shipments from India and Peru rebounded notably. Meanwhile, total China iron ore port arrivals tracked by SMM surged to 30.32 million mt last week, up 54% WoW, with cumulative arrivals up 5% YoY. As weather disruptions outside China gradually recede, port arrivals rebounded markedly, and the supply growth weighed on ore prices. Demand: Off-season compounded by environmental protection-driven production restrictions, hot metal output continues to pull back, and raw material demand support weakens In terms of demand: Environmental protection-driven production restrictions and the traditional off-season effect pushed China’s hot metal output down to a low for the year, and iron ore continued to face pressure from downstream demand. According to an SMM survey, on July 29 the operating rate of blast furnaces at 242 steel mills stood at 88.93%, down 0.47 percentage point WoW. Average daily hot metal output at the sampled mills was 2.4087 million mt, down 16,000 mt WoW. The decline in hot metal output this week was mainly due to disruptions from environmental inspections, especially in the Tangshan area of Hebei, where mills arranged concentrated short-term maintenance, leading to a temporary output reduction. Inventory: Port inventories saw a buildup, with a clear pattern of strong supply and weak demand Chart: SMM Ten-Port Inventory Data (10kt) Data Source: SMM In terms of inventory: As of July 30, according to SMM monitoring data, total inventories at the ten ports tracked by SMM stood at 106.92 million mt, up 1.29 million mt WoW, with coarse fines, concentrate, lump ore, and pellets all showing a slight inventory buildup. The inventory buildup at ports further confirmed the current pattern of strong supply and weak demand, continuing to suppress iron ore market prices. Market outlook for iron ore, in the short term, supply-side growth pressure continues to be released, and the pattern of weak demand during the traditional off-season for downstream end-users is unlikely to reverse quickly. Before significant improvement in construction activity and finished steel consumption, iron ore prices will overall remain in the doldrums. Subsequently, focus will be on tracking the strength and rollout pace of end-use demand recovery during the traditional September-October peak season. From a medium and long-term perspective, the iron ore market in H2 2026 will continue to see an oversupply pattern, with fundamentals weakening QoQ and ore prices still having the possibility of hitting bottom further. However, the escalating US-Iran conflict has pushed up energy costs, driving up ocean shipping costs, which will provide bottom support for iron ore prices. Overall, barring any significant macro or fundamental positive news, the oversupplied fundamentals will prevent iron ore from staging a trend reversal rebound, while the downside room is limited, keeping prices in a pattern of consolidating on a subdued note with insufficient upward momentum and cost-based downside support. Institutional Views A research report from Everbright Futures showed: Australian miner MinRes released its Q2 2026 operational report. The report showed that iron ore production at the Onslow Iron project in Q2 reached 8.754 million mt, up 12% QoQ and 42% YoY; shipments reached 9.596 million mt, up 33% QoQ and 66% YoY, setting a quarterly shipment record. Iron ore shipments from the Pilbara Hub project in Q2 were 2.701 million mt, up 31% QoQ and 7% YoY. For FY2026, MinRes's attributable iron ore shipments reached 29.543 million mt, setting an annual record. Combined with Rio Tinto and Vale's quarterly reports having previously confirmed high production and sales from major mines, the medium-term supply ample pattern was further cemented. On the demand side, hot metal output continued its decline, and low steel mill profits dampened raw material purchase willingness. Ore prices are expected to continue to consolidate on a subdued note in the short term. SDIC Futures stated: Supply side, global shipments pulled back MoM and were weaker than the same period last year. BHP and workers have yet to reach an agreement on pay raises, but currently there are no further strike plans; future attention remains on negotiation progress. China's port arrivals fell below the year-to-date average but were still stronger than the same period last year; port inventories stabilized and rebounded after weather disruptions ended. Demand side, apparent steel demand in the off-season was weak; the proportion of profitable steel mills continued to decline from low levels, leading to more production cuts; hot metal output continued to fall, and iron ore demand faced marginal downside pressure. Recurrent external geopolitical conflicts keep oil prices consolidating at relatively high levels, providing some cost support below the futures market. SDIC Futures expects iron ore futures to consolidate. Yide Futures believes that hot metal output is gradually declining, the seasonal supply decline is not significant, supply-demand marginal improvement is insufficient, and inventory pressure remains high. Although 730-710 offers some support, end-use demand has not yet emerged from the off-season, and rebound momentum is insufficient. Recommended reading:

[Production Under Pressure, Marginal Supply Reduction, Structural Trend Divergence in Silicon Metal]: The silicon metal industry chain exhibited a clear gaming pattern, with structural divergence between upstream and midstream. On the supply side, silicon enterprises faced cash flow losses, and a small number undertook maintenance and production halts; however, the limited actual cuts had no directional impact on market sentiment. Silicon enterprises showed a strong inclination to hold prices firm and were unwilling to lower quotes to boost orders, while the industry’s in-factory inventory showed an accumulating trend. In the midstream, social inventory destocked continuously in recent weeks. Trading firms engaging in both spot and futures markets saw improved transaction activity at low futures prices, and inventory in the trade circulation segment continued to destock. The tightening of circulating supply drove the spot-futures price spread to strengthen, and spot silicon metal was more resistant to declines than futures.

Spot lithium carbonate prices moved sideways in a narrow range this week, with the price center edging up slightly WoW. The futures market consolidated on a subdued note. The price range of the most-traded 2609 contract drifted lower from 143,300-148,200 yuan/mt early in the week to 140,600-149,400 yuan/mt. Mid-week, it hit a high of 149,400 yuan/mt before pulling back, and dipped to a low of 140,600 yuan/mt. Open interest continued to decline, with both longs and shorts mainly reducing positions. Market transactions showed a pattern of "downstream purchasing as needed and upstream holding prices firm while holding back from selling," and actual transactions were relatively active. Upstream lithium chemical plants had strong sentiment to hold prices firm and hold back from selling for spot orders, with willingness to sell remaining sluggish. Some enterprises anchored their willingness to sell spot orders at above 160,000 yuan/mt. Current supply was mainly based on long-term contract guarantees and "long-term contract + growth" delivery models. Downstream material plants continued their strategy of purchasing as needed and buying the dip, with relatively strong willingness to buy the dip below 145,000 yuan/mt for just-in-time needs, but limited acceptance of higher prices. There was little large-scale stockpiling, and procurement was generally stable as it was month-end. Traders were affected by both upstream supply contraction and limited spot order circulation, as well as downstream just-in-time procurement, and remained in a destocking state. Overall, market inquiries and actual transactions were relatively active. Supply side, production continued to decline significantly, and upstream inventory remained low. This week, China's lithium carbonate production continued to decline sharply, significantly affected by maintenance and production halts at lithium chemical plants using spodumene and lepidolite. Inventory changes: Upstream lithium chemical plants still maintained their strategy of holding back from selling spot orders, with persistently sluggish willingness to sell; combined with multiple plants entering maintenance, inventory remained low. Downstream material plants continued their pace of purchasing as needed; as it was month-end, procurement was generally stable, and inventory was basically stable. Traders, affected by both upstream supply contraction and downstream just-in-time procurement, continued destocking. The funding side showed a pattern of both longs and shorts reducing positions. Futures open interest continued to decline this week, indicating that both longs and shorts were closing positions; market wait-and-see sentiment intensified, and prices lacked a clear directional driver. Looking ahead, short-term lithium carbonate prices are expected to maintain a sideways consolidation pattern. Supply side, ongoing maintenance and production halts at some lithium chemical plants and tightening circulation of spodumene ore provided support for prices, with supply contraction being the main bullish factor currently. Demand side, downstream dip-buying and purchasing as needed continued, but large-scale concentrated stockpiling had not yet appeared, lacking sustained upward momentum. Going forward, key attention should be paid to the progress of maintenance recovery at lithium chemical plants, changes in downstream restocking pace, and production schedule expectations for August.

Iron ore futures trended lower today. The most-traded DCE I2609 contract closed at 715 yuan/mt, down 3.31% from the previous trading session. Spot prices at Qingdao Port fell 15-20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Trader quoting enthusiasm was low, steel mill procurement was mostly for rigid demand, and overall spot transaction sentiment was sluggish. From a fundamental perspective, iron ore inventory continued structural divergence. Total inventory at 10 ports tracked by SMM stood at 106.92 million mt, up 1.29 million mt MoM, mainly driven by buildup of coarse fines and lump ore, while pellet inventory remained at a four-year low. From a macro perspective, escalating US-Iran tensions and their spillover triggered panic sentiment in the market, which spread to the iron ore futures market, a risk product, leading to sell-offs and dragging down overall prices. In the short term, iron ore prices may continue to decline amid panic sentiment. [SMM Steel]

SMM July 30 news: Price review: As of Thursday this week, the SMM alumina index stood at 2,707.36 yuan/mt, down 6.01 yuan/mt from the previous Thursday. Among regions, Shandong reported 2,700-2,750 yuan/mt, down 15 yuan/mt from the previous Thursday; Henan reported 2,720-2,780 yuan/mt, down 10 yuan/mt; Shanxi reported 2,720-2,760 yuan/mt, down 15 yuan/mt; Guangxi reported 2,600-2,670 yuan/mt, down 5 yuan/mt; and Guizhou reported 2,760-2,800 yuan/mt, down 10 yuan/mt from the previous Thursday. Markets outside China: As of July 30, 2026, the FOB Western Australia alumina price was $346/mt, with an ocean freight rate of $34.15/mt and a USD/CNY selling rate around 6.78. This translated to a selling price at major Chinese ports of about 2,991.45 yuan/mt, which was 284.09 yuan/mt higher than the alumina index price. One ex-China spot alumina transaction was heard this week, with details as follows: (1) On July 27, 2026, 30,000 mt of alumina was traded ex-China at $332/mt FOB Indonesia, for loading between end-July and early August. China: According to SMM data, as of Thursday this week, total built capacity of metallurgical-grade alumina nationwide was 118.42 million mt/year, with operating capacity at 88.43 million mt/year. The national weekly operating rate fell 0.36 percentage point WoW to 74.68%. Specifically, Shandong’s weekly operating rate edged down 0.02 ppt WoW to 89.29%; Shanxi’s rose 0.26 ppt WoW to 63.72%; Henan’s dropped 4.83 ppt WoW to 53.16%; Guangxi’s increased 2.47 ppt WoW to 81.34%; Guizhou’s decreased 2.53 ppt WoW to 83.47%. In the spot market, three deals were done this week. Gansu procured 20,000 mt of spot alumina, with delivered prices of 2,930 yuan/mt and 2,880 yuan/mt. Qinghai saw a 10,000 mt spot alumina deal at a delivered price of 2,900 yuan/mt. Yunnan purchased 5,000 mt of spot alumina at an EXW price of 2,600 yuan/mt. Alumina prices fell steadily this week, with the overall market deeply bearish and prices still having downside room. This morning, the most-traded futures contract dropped to a low of 2,610 yuan/mt. In the short term, the round 2,600 yuan/mt mark provided some support, but in the long term, futures prices could break below 2,600 yuan/mt. Supply side, alumina production edged down this week, mainly because enterprises in different regions conducted scheduled maintenance, leading to a slight contraction in overall output, though the decline was limited. Inventory performance was mixed: aluminum smelters' raw material inventory rose 7,000 mt WoW to 3.387 million mt, as some smelters deemed current prices had fallen to a relatively low level after the sustained decline in alumina prices and began to buy moderate volumes to restock; alumina refineries' finished product inventories fell 18,000 mt to 1.217 million mt, with destocking taking place as refineries consumed in-factory inventory for downstream deliveries during maintenance. Warrant inventory increased 23,000 mt WoW to 254,000 mt, as some enterprises opted to ship to delivery warehouses. Notably, port inventory surged 111,000 mt to 945,000 mt this week. Although some cargoes entered bonded areas and are not yet flowing into the Chinese market, the overall import volume is still rising, exerting significant pressure on the Chinese market. In markets outside China, Indonesia restricted shipments due to rare earth elements in some alumina, causing short-term disruption to ex-China supply, but the Indonesian alumina traded last week is expected to be unaffected. Additionally, impacted by a hurricane, Jamaica's alumina production stood at 267,100 mt in Q1 2026, down 30.3% YoY, and is expected to gradually recover in Q2 and Q3. Overall ex-China alumina prices are expected to continue to consolidate at highs in the near term. Looking ahead to next week, domestic spot prices will likely extend their decline, as spot premiums over futures still have some room to compress and downward pressure has not been fully released; the futures market will likely consolidate on a weak note, with near-term attention on support at 2,600 yuan/mt, while medium and long-term downside risks remain. On the inventory front, as some alumina refineries complete maintenance and production gradually recovers, the cumulative effect on the supply side will continue to intensify market pressure, and domestic inventory is expected to see further inventory buildup next week. [All data other than public information are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making advice.]

[SMM Rare Earth Weekly Review: Weak Demand Persists, Industry Chain Prices Drift Lower] This week, affected by news factors and futures fluctuations, Pr-Nd oxide prices overall remained in the doldrums. Some traders sold at low prices, and metal plants' purchase willingness was poor during the price decline. As of today, Pr-Nd oxide prices were adjusted down to 743,000-748,000 yuan/mt.

SMM July 30 News: In the metals market: As of the midday close, domestic base metals generally rose. SHFE copper edged up, SHFE aluminum rose 1.03%. SHFE lead fell 0.25%. SHFE zinc edged down. SHFE tin gained 0.49%. SHFE nickel rose 0.28%. Besides, the most-traded cast aluminum futures rose 0.63%, the most-traded alumina futures fell 1.94%. The most-traded lithium carbonate futures fell 1.76%. The most-traded silicon metal futures fell 0.31%. The most-traded polysilicon futures continued the decline from the previous two trading days, falling another 1.57%. Ferrous metals mostly fell. Iron ore fell 2.16%, rebar fell 1.43%, hot-rolled coil fell 1.06%. Stainless steel rose 0.28%. In terms of coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract fell 1.33%, the most-traded coke contract fell 1.17%. In the overseas base metals market, as of 11:38, LME metals almost all rose. LME copper, LME aluminum, LME lead, and LME zinc all gained within 0.5%. LME tin rose 0.6%. LME nickel fell 0.38%. In the precious metals market, as of 11:38, COMEX gold rose 0.34%, COMEX silver fell 0.84%. In the domestic precious metals market: SHFE gold rose 0.43%, the most-traded SHFE silver contract rose 0.16%. Besides, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures fell 0.98%, the most-traded palladium futures fell 0.99%. As of the midday close, the most-traded European container freight index futures fell 2.68% to 1,688 points. As of 11:38 on July 30, some midday futures market conditions: Spot and Fundamentals Aluminum: During the morning session, the center of the SHFE aluminum 2608 contract was higher than the same period of the previous trading day. The rise in aluminum prices significantly dampened market purchasing sentiment. On the day, some suppliers quoted at parity with the SHFE aluminum 2608 contract, with market acceptance remaining weak. The mainstream transaction price was mainly from SHFE aluminum 2608 contract at a discount of 10 yuan/mt to parity... Macro Front Domestically: [National Energy Administration: H1 China's renewable energy power generation share exceeded 40% for the first time] According to the press conference of the National Energy Administration, in H1, China's renewable energy developed rapidly, with power generation accounting for over 40% of total power generation for the first time. In H1, national renewable energy power generation was nearly 2 trillion kWh, up about 9% YoY, accounting for 41.2% of total power generation, exceeding 40% for the first time. Among them, wind and solar power generation totaled 1.25 trillion kWh, up 9.3% YoY. In terms of installations, China's renewable energy new installations reached 117 million kW in H1, accounting for 73.9% of total new installations, continuing to hold the dominant position. As of the end of June, China's renewable energy installations reached 2.455 billion kW, accounting for over 60% of China's total installed capacity. (CCTV News) [China's coal-fired power generation share of total power generation fell below 50% for the first time in H1] It was learned from a press conference held by the National Energy Administration today that the pace of China's green and low-carbon energy transition accelerated in H1. As of the end of June, the combined installed capacity of wind and solar power reached 1.95 billion kW, up 16.8% YoY. In terms of power generation, total wind and solar power generation exceeded 1.2 trillion kWh in H1, accounting for roughly one-quarter of total electricity consumption. Meanwhile, China's coal-fired power generation was 2.5 trillion kWh, with its share of total power generation dropping to 49.7%, marking the first time the share fell below 50% in H1. (CCTV News) The PBOC conducted a 270.5 billion yuan 7-day reverse repo operation in the open market at an operation rate of 1.40%, unchanged from the previous operation. Meanwhile, it conducted a 600 billion yuan overnight reverse repo operation. Today, 804 billion yuan of reverse repos matured. > On July 30, the central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar in the interbank foreign exchange market was 6.7892 yuan per US dollar. The US dollar: As of 11:38, the US dollar index rose 0.12% to 100.94. On Wednesday, July 29 (ET), the US Fed announced after the FOMC meeting that the target range for the federal funds rate would remain unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75%. To date, after cutting rates at three consecutive meetings through the end of last year, the FOMC has stood pat at all five monetary policy meetings since the start of 2026. The decision was in line with market expectations. (From Wallstreetcn APP) Fed Chairman Warsh reiterated at the start of the press conference that the Fed is firmly committed to achieving its 2% YoY inflation target. Warsh stated that the committee would unwaveringly pursue price stability. Given the current environment of heightened uncertainty, refraining from providing forward guidance is a "prudent" approach. He stressed to reporters that the Fed has no so-called "soft inflation target" or any other implicit target; the sole inflation goal is 2%. Regarding the overall economy, Warsh said the US economy has shown "impressive resilience," and while it has faced a series of shocks recently, the overall trend remains positive. (Jin10 Data APP) According to CME "FedWatch": The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged by September is 36.8%, the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike is 63.2%, and the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point hike is 0% (These probabilities were 17.8%, 60.2%, and 22% before the Fed decision, respectively.)The probability of the US Fed keeping rates unchanged through October is 26.2%, while the probabilities of cumulative rate hikes of 25 bps, 50 bps, and 75 bps are 55.6%, 18.2%, and 0%, respectively (versus 11.9%, 46.1%, 34.7%, and 7.3% before the Fed decision). (Jin10 Data APP) A CICC research report noted that the US Fed kept rates unchanged at its July meeting, but hawkish sentiment within strengthened further as three voting members supported a 25 bps rate hike. We believe the greatest change from this meeting was not the rate decision, but rather Fed Chairman Warsh’s attempt to reduce policy intervention and rely more on a spontaneous rise in market rates to tighten financial conditions, outsourcing part of the tightening function to the market. However, against the backdrop of inflation persistently exceeding the target, this approach could easily undermine market confidence in the Fed’s policy credibility. After the meeting, long-end US Treasury yields surged and the curve steepened notably, likely reflecting investors beginning to price in higher long-term inflation and policy risks. Looking ahead, we believe that if employment or inflation data exceed expectations, the market will not only further raise expectations for a September rate hike, but may also price in the risk of the Fed acting “too late.” Long-end rates could rise further, and risk assets would face greater adjustment pressure. T. Rowe Price Chief US Economist Blerina Uruci said that, assuming oil prices do not spike and inflation trends lower, the Fed could keep rates unchanged at its September meeting. She said in a report that, given the number of dissent votes at Wednesday’s FOMC meeting and oil price uncertainty, market expectations for the September rate decision reflect a roughly 50-50 chance. The market will continue to pressure the Fed and may not back down until inflation data forces it to act, maintaining the view that the Fed will keep rates unchanged. The US core CPI data for June did not influence the Fed’s decision, she added, noting that Warsh is watching this trend and that “with a bit of luck, this trend could play in his favor in a few months.” DBS Group Research Senior FX Strategist Philip Wee said in a commentary that the US dollar could be weighed down by the divergence in forward guidance between the Fed and other central banks. By removing forward guidance and keeping rates unchanged, Fed Chairman Warsh has brought the Fed into a monetary “mirror maze,” resulting in volatile consequences. Warsh has left the US market “groping in the dark.” In contrast, the European Central Bank has been more unified in signaling a rate hike in September, which gives the euro a clear comparative advantage. If the Bank of England defies the broad consensus of holding rates steady and unexpectedly hikes later today, the pound is likely to appreciate. (Jin10 Data APP) Other currencies: [Data Dove, Market Hawk: Bank of England Faces Policy Signal Test on Thursday] Rate futures markets are firmly betting on a Bank of England rate hike in November. The BoE will announce its rate decision, meeting minutes, and latest economic forecasts on Thursday, followed by a press conference from Governor Bailey. Most economists surveyed by Reuters expect the MPC to keep rates unchanged 7-2, holding steady throughout the year. Previously, UK CPI fell to a 15-month low in June, while private sector wage growth was the weakest since 2020. The government led by new Prime Minister Andy Burnham has prioritized tackling the cost-of-living crisis, announcing the removal of VAT on household electricity bills. Almost no fundamentals side logic supports a Bank of England rate hike. However, rate futures data on Wednesday pointed to a 25bp hike in November and another in March 2027. Data: Today will see the release of US initial jobless claims for the week ending July 25, US core PCE price index YoY for June, US personal spending MoM for June, US Q2 real GDP annualized QoQ advance, US Q2 real personal consumption expenditures QoQ advance, US Q2 core PCE price index annualized QoQ advance, US core PCE price index MoM for June, Eurozone Q2 GDP YoY advance, Eurozone June unemployment rate, Eurozone July industrial confidence index, Eurozone July economic sentiment index, France Q2 GDP YoY advance, Swiss July KOF leading indicator, UK Bank Rate decision, Germany Q2 non-seasonally adjusted GDP YoY advance, and Germany July CPI MoM advance. Crude oil: As of 11:38, both crude oil benchmarks were down, with WTI down 1.04% and Brent down 1.15%. Although the Middle East conflict has continued to escalate, data shows tankers are still leaving the region. Kpler shipping data showed 37 cargo ships passed through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on Tuesday, the highest since July 19, while only a few passed through the Strait of Hormuz. Among the vessels passing through the strait, 20 entered and 17 departed. There were no VLCCs or LNG carriers. Among the departing vessels, three Aframax tankers were laden with crude oil: the Aisopos and Gustav, carrying over 750,000 barrels of crude, were heading to the Gulf of Aden, while the Karachi, with about 430,000 barrels, was bound for Pakistan. Among the inbound ships, two carried petrochemical products: the Velos Aquarius delivered 345,000 barrels of MTBE to areas west of the Suez, and the Sea Ambition shipped nearly 93,000 barrels of chemicals to Turkey. (Jin10 Data APP) The UAE's Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc) is continuing to export LNG from its Persian Gulf facilities, despite renewed conflict in the region forcing producers to limit shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. According to shipping data, an empty LNG carrier owned by Adnoc appeared in the Persian Gulf on Wednesday. The voyage is a rare occurrence, as visible traffic in the strait has largely halted since the attack on a Qatari LNG vessel earlier this month. Meanwhile, satellite images show ongoing cargo loadings, and on Friday an oil tanker was docked at the UAE's Das Island export terminal. These developments underscore that, despite the breakdown of US-Iran peace talks leading to tanker attacks near the strait, fuel exporters are still striving to maintain normal shipping operations. (Jin10 Data APP) Government data released by the US Energy Information Administration on Wednesday showed that commercial crude oil inventories plunged by 7.2 million barrels last week, while the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) decreased by 3.8 million barrels to 307.7 million barrels, the lowest level in over 40 years. Meanwhile, US refinery capacity utilization rate has climbed to 97%, with some areas in the Midwest running at full 100% capacity. The direct trigger for this sharp inventory drawdown was the renewed military conflict between the US and Iran over the past week. The ongoing US-Iran hostilities have severely restricted tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, and supplies of oil and petrochemical products from the Middle East face ongoing disruptions. (from Wall Street CN APP) On July 29 local time, Farhan Haq, Deputy Spokesman for the UN Secretary-General, said at a regular press briefing at UN Headquarters in New York that the recent fighting in the Middle East is showing a trend of further escalation. UN Secretary-General António Guterres is deeply concerned about the escalation of the conflict and the involvement of more countries, and called on all parties concerned to cease hostilities and return to diplomatic negotiations and mediation. Responding to a question about a drone attack on a natural gas storage facility at Egypt's Damietta port, Haq said the UN does not have first-hand information on the incident, but expressed concern that as the conflict continues, more countries could be affected. (CCTV News) Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

This week, the center of Shanghai spot copper premiums consolidated and pulled back. At the start of the week, imported cargoes arrived successively at ports, marginally easing the previous tightness in available supplies. Meanwhile, as month-end approached, the price spread between cargoes with invoices dated this month and next month widened, with some demand to cover this-month invoices providing some support to prices. Mid-week, the pullback in SHFE copper prices led to a slight improvement in downstream bargain-hunting inquiries, and together with month-end invoice demand, spot premiums briefly stabilized. Subsequently, copper prices held up well again, downstream purchasing sentiment cooled, and terminal purchase willingness was mostly concentrated at spot premiums below 200 yuan/mt, with a notable psychological price gap between buyers and sellers. In terms of inventory, SMM data showed that social inventory in Shanghai was 69,500 mt, down 500 mt from this Monday; inventory in Jiangsu was 21,200 mt, down 500 mt from this Monday. Inventory in east China destocked slightly, still providing some support to premiums. Looking ahead to next week, with the start of a new procurement cycle, the sluggish trading at month-end may improve. Some downstream enterprises have phased restocking needs, and spot procurement volumes may rebound marginally. However, SMM understands that the current psychological price level for terminals is mainly concentrated at SHFE copper 104,500–104,800 yuan/mt. If the futures market stays high, the actual release of procurement volumes will still be limited. On the supply side, earlier imported cargoes have already arrived at ports, and the subsequent arrival growth remains to be seen. Meanwhile, absolute inventory in east China remains low, and combined with the backwardation structure for the next-month contract, this provides support to spot premiums. Overall, it is expected that next week, spot copper prices against the SHFE copper 2608 contract will remain at a premium, and the center of premiums may stop falling and stabilize. If copper prices pull back to around downstream psychological levels, improved spot transactions could push premiums slightly higher.

SMM Nickel July 30 News: Macro and Market News: (1) The US Fed kept the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 3.5% to 3.75%. This marked the fifth consecutive rate hold this year. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) passed the resolution with 9 votes in favor and 3 against. (2) On the afternoon of July 29, Trump stated that because "Iran launched missiles at US troops in the Middle East," the US "will deal a heavy blow to Iran." Spot Market: On July 30, the SMM #1 refined nickel average price stood at 132,000 yuan/mt, up 500 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In terms of spot premiums, the Jinchuan #1 refined nickel average was 1,200 yuan/mt, down 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, with the range for domestic mainstream brands of electrodeposited nickel at -300 to 500 yuan/mt. Futures Market: The most-traded SHFE nickel 2609 contract retreated after rapid rise in morning trading, with the morning session closing at 130,780 yuan/mt, up 0.28%. The July FOMC meeting kept rates unchanged, and the US dollar weakened, pushing most non-ferrous metals to close higher. Expectations of tighter quotas in Indonesia and sulfur cost support firmed the bottom of nickel prices. The most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to trade in the range of 128,000-135,000 yuan/mt.