[SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Macro Factors and Fundamentals Resonated, and LME Zinc Logged a Three-Day Winning Streak] Overnight, LME zinc logged a three-day winning streak, with support from the 20-day moving average below and resistance from the 40/60-day moving averages above. Overnight, as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East may have de-escalated, the US dollar index moved lower, nonferrous metals rose, and LME zinc inventory continued destocking......

I. Review of SHFE Aluminum Price Trends in Q1 2026 (by Stage) January: The market’s core trading logic deviated from fundamentals and centered on macro expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts Fundamentals: Chinese New Year off-season + demand vacuum + inventory buildup Aluminum prices continued to climb and hit a record high for the period, while downstream profit margins came under pressure, leading to weaker demand for primary aluminum. Repeated environmental protection-driven production restrictions in some regions constrained demand for raw materials. Aluminum social inventory continued to accumulate. As of end-January, SMM aluminum ingot social inventory rose to 782,000 mt, a high for the same period in the past three years. Macro front: In January, the US Fed was in an interest rate cut cycle, and the US dollar weakened significantly. Large amounts of capital flowed into the commodities futures market, driving broad commodity prices higher; together with favorable support from China’s consumption stimulus policies, this jointly supported aluminum prices. February: The market’s core trading logic deviated from fundamentals and centered on macro expectations for the US Fed to keep interest rates unchanged Fundamentals: Aluminum prices were generally in the doldrums. Affected by the Chinese New Year holiday, procurement demand from China’s downstream processing enterprises dropped sharply, aluminum plants showed stronger willingness to cast ingots, and aluminum social inventory continued to accumulate. After the Chinese New Year holiday, SMM aluminum ingot social inventory rose to 1.108 million mt. Elevated inventory levels struggled to provide effective upward support for aluminum prices. Macro front: Cooling expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts pushed the US dollar index higher, and profit-taking outflows triggered a pullback in aluminum prices, further reinforcing their weak and rangebound trend. March: The market’s core trading logic repeatedly switched between supply-side disruptions in the Middle East and demand-side suppression. The tug-of-war between longs and shorts intensified, dominating aluminum prices in a volatile pattern of “surge - correction - rebound.” Supply side: I. Production cut events occurred frequently on the overseas supply side, and disruptions continued to intensify. Mozal entered maintenance status. Qatar Aluminium Smelter announced its decision to stop further production cuts and maintain a 60% operating rate. Aluminium Bahrain initiated shutdowns of Production Lines 1, 2, and 3 under controlled and safe conditions, and the market later heard that Line 4 might also face production cuts or suspension. EGA’s aluminum plant facilities suffered severe damage, and the extent of the damage was still under assessment. The market expected it to undergo large-scale production cuts or suspensions. Ongoing concerns over continued tightening on the overseas supply side became the core driver pushing aluminum prices higher in stages. II. As the Middle East conflict continued to escalate, shipping security in the Strait of Hormuz drew widespread market attention, further increasing uncertainty over global aluminum supply and continuously injecting a geopolitical risk premium into aluminum prices, supporting prices fluctuating at highs. Demand Side: 1. From a macro perspective, concerns over stagflation continued to intensify, risk-off market sentiment picked up, dragging aluminum prices into a pullback and limiting upside room. 2. Hidden concerns on the demand side outside China became more prominent. Some downstream processing enterprises were constrained by multiple factors, triggering market concerns over weak demand: 1) high aluminum prices significantly suppressed downstream purchase willingness, hindering demand release; 2) shortages of energy resources such as natural gas and oil put some processing enterprises under pressure to reduce or suspend production; 3) costs such as freight rates rose sharply, and together with higher smelting costs, further squeezed the profit margins of downstream enterprises, indirectly suppressing demand release. Source: SMM

[SMM Daily Chrome Review: The Ferrochrome Market Remained Stable, and Ore-Side Prices Saw No Adjustment for the Time Being] News on March 31, 2026: Fluctuations in the ferrochrome and chrome ore markets were limited...

SMM Nickel News, March 31: Macro and market news: (1) The State Administration for Market Regulation issued a notice on further implementing the Anti-Unfair Competition Law of the People's Republic of China. The notice mentioned comprehensively addressing "involution-style" competition. It said various anti-unfair competition measures would be used in a coordinated manner to focus on preventing and curbing "involution-style" competition in key industries and sectors such as the platform economy, PV, lithium battery, and NEV. (2) Iran's parliamentary National Security Commission passed a bill proposing to charge fees on vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz. The plan included implementing financial arrangements and a charging system in Iranian rial, and banning US and Israeli vessels from passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Spot market: On March 31, the SMM price of #1 refined nickel fell by 750 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In terms of spot premiums, the average price premium of Jinchuan #1 refined nickel was 3,750 yuan/mt, down 1,000 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the spot premiums for mainstream domestic brands of electrodeposited nickel were in the range of -800-400 yuan/mt. Futures market: The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2605) continued to decline in early trading and closed the morning session at 134,370 yuan/mt, down 1.13%. Supply side, tightening in nickel ore has evolved into dual cost support from "ore + taxes," providing solid support for the bottom of nickel prices, but weak end-use demand and continued inventory accumulation still capped upside room for nickel prices. Nickel prices are expected to maintain a fluctuating trend in the short term, with the core trading range of the most-traded SHFE nickel contract at 133,000-143,000 yuan/mt.

[SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Dovish Remarks by the US Fed Drove Zinc Prices Higher] Overnight, LME zinc recorded a bullish candlestick, with the 20-day daily average above acting as resistance. Overnight, dovish remarks by the US Fed boosted market sentiment, while LME Cash-3M shifted to a backwardation structure......

On March 27, the 2026 SMM (21st) Lead & Zinc Conference and Industry Expo, organized by SMM, wrapped up successfully at Howard Johnson Agile Plaza in Chengdu, Sichuan!

SMM Nickel News, March 30: Macro and Market News: (1) "No Kings" rallies broke out across the US in opposition to Trump. US voters' dissatisfaction with Trump hit a record high. (2) US President Trump told the UK's Financial Times on the 29th that indirect talks between the US and Iran through intermediary Pakistan were "going well." But when asked whether a ceasefire agreement could be reached and the Strait of Hormuz reopened in the coming days, Trump did not disclose specific details. Spot Market: On March 28, the SMM price of #1 refined nickel fell by 1,300 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In terms of spot premiums, the average price of Jinchuan #1 refined nickel was 4,750 yuan/mt, down 150 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; China's mainstream electrodeposited nickel brands were at -600-400 yuan/mt. Futures Market: The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2605) maintained a rangebound fluctuation and closed at 136,130 yuan/mt as of the end of this morning's session, down 0.23%. Supply side, tightening nickel ore has evolved into dual cost support from "ore + taxes," providing solid support for the bottom of nickel prices, but weak end-use demand and continued inventory accumulation still capped upside room for nickel prices. Nickel prices were expected to maintain a fluctuating trend in the short term, with the core trading range of the most-traded SHFE nickel contract at 133,000-143,000 yuan/mt.

In the spot market, high-priced long-term contracted cargoes arrived at ports in the early stage with high cargo receiving costs. Domestic traders showed a strong willingness to prop up prices, driving continuous hikes in chromite quotations. However, downstream demand remained sluggish. Coupled with persistently high shipments and a notable inventory build-up, selling pressure intensified, slowing the upward momentum of spot chromite prices.

[SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Zinc Fundamentals Improved Slightly, but Weak Macro Sentiment Limited Its Gains] Last Friday, LME zinc posted a small bullish candlestick, with the 10-day moving average above acting as resistance. Although the risk of an escalation in the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East remained last Friday and macro sentiment was weak, concerns over mine-side energy supply arising from such an escalation also increased......

[Traders' Offers Remained Firm, Spot Premiums Rose WoW]: Spot premiums in Shanghai increased this week, with the weekly average price up 35 yuan/mt WoW. As of this Friday, ordinary domestic brands were quoted at a discount of 10 yuan/mt to a premium of 10 yuan/mt against the 2604 contract, while the high-priced brand Shuangyan was quoted at a premium of 50 yuan/mt against the 2605 contract..