SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight, LME copper opened at $12,016.5/mt. After dipping to $11,955.5/mt in early trading, its center rose sharply to a high of $12,160/mt, and then continued to hover at highs, finally closing at $12,092.5/mt, down 1.05%. Trading volume reached 23,000 lots, open interest stood at 293,000 lots, up 406 lots from the previous trading day, mainly reflecting increased short positions overall. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2605 contract opened at 93,600 yuan/mt and touched a low of 93,480 yuan/mt at the open. Its center then moved higher to a high of 94,990 yuan/mt, after which copper prices maintained a fluctuating trend at highs, finally closing at 94,670 yuan/mt, up 0.17%. Trading volume reached 51,000 lots, open interest stood at 198,000 lots, down 533 lots from the previous trading day, mainly reflecting reduced short positions throughout the day.

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight, LME copper opened at $11,816/mt. After dipping to $11,798/mt in early trading, its center rose sharply to a high of $12,395/mt, then hovered at highs, and finally closed at $12,221/mt, up 3.27%. Trading volume reached 52,000 lots, and open interest stood at 292,000 lots, down 944 lots from the previous trading day, mainly reflecting bears cutting positions overall. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2605 contract opened at 95,010 yuan/mt. After the opening, its center moved higher to a high of 95,900 yuan/mt, after which copper prices maintained a fluctuating trend at highs. Near the close, it dipped to 94,530 yuan/mt and finally closed at 93,840 yuan/mt, up 2.12%. Trading volume reached 120,000 lots, and open interest stood at 198,000 lots, down 6,741 lots from the previous trading day, mainly reflecting bears cutting positions throughout the day.

Freeport-McMoRan (NYSE: FCX) has begun the environmental permitting process for a $7.5 billion expansion of its majority owned El Abra copper mine in ChileThe project, owned 51% by Freeport and 49% by state-owned Codelco, is the largest mining investment submitted to Chile’s Environmental Assessment Service (SEA) since at least 1992. The plan includes a new concentrator, a desalination plant, a water pumping system, expanded mine infrastructure and continued leaching. Production is expected to begin in 2033 if regulators approve the project, Diario Financiero reported.

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight, LME copper opened at $12,751/mt and dipped to $12,743/mt at the start of the session. Thereafter, the center of copper prices gradually moved higher and, near the close, touched a high of $12,940/mt, before finally closing at $12,918.5/mt, up 1.44. Trading volume reached 19,700 lots, and open interest stood at 302,000 lots, down 5,166 lots from the previous trading day, mainly due to bears reducing positions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2604 contract opened at 100,020 yuan/mt and hit a low of 99,820 yuan/mt at the start of the session. It then fluctuated upward to 100,420 yuan/mt, followed by wide swings, and finally closed at 100,190 yuan/mt, up 0.58. Trading volume reached 274,000 lots, and open interest stood at 190,000 lots, down 3,315 lots from the previous trading day, mainly due to bears reducing positions.

[SMM Analysis:Overview of Q4 Copper Production of the Top 20 Global Mining Companies in 2025] According to SMM statistics, copper production by the world's top 20 mining companies in the fourth quarter of 2025 stood at 3,526 kt, a 2.1% increase quarter-on-quarter but a 10.5% decrease year-on-year.

Today, the most-traded BC copper 2603 contract opened at 92,420 yuan/mt, hit an intraday high of 92,420 yuan/mt at the beginning of the session, then fluctuated downward with its center touching a low of 90,440 yuan/mt. Copper prices later maintained a sideways fluctuating trend, finally closing at 90,840 yuan/mt, up 0.43%. Open interest fell to 3,481 lots, down 1,004 lots from the previous trading day, while trading volume rose to 6,479 lots, up 3,066 lots from the previous trading day. On the macro front, US non-farm payrolls added 130,000 in January, and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.3%, both figures beating expectations, cooling market expectations for interest rate cuts. US Fed officials struck a hawkish tone, favoring maintaining restrictive interest rates, while Trump continued to pressure the Fed. Armed attacks in Papua, Indonesia targeted a Freeport company convoy, resulting in 1 death and 2 injuries, raising safety risks at the mine. On the fundamentals side, supply side, due to earlier import arbitrage windows opening, locked price ratio cargoes continued to arrive, keeping supply loose. Demand side, as the holiday approaches, downstream enterprises have generally started holidays, leading to continuously weakening procurement demand. Inventory side, as of Thursday, February 12, SMM nationwide copper inventories in mainstream areas increased 5.3% WoW, with total inventories up 27,400 mt YoY. SHFE copper 2603 contract closed at 102,330 yuan/mt. Based on the BC copper 2603 contract price of 90,840 yuan/mt, its post-tax price is 102,649 yuan/mt, resulting in a price spread of -319 between SHFE copper 2603 and BC copper. The spread remained inverted and narrowed compared to the previous day.

SMM Morning Meeting Minutes: LME copper opened at $13,357/mt overnight, fluctuated upward initially and touched a high of $13,480/mt, then the center of copper prices gradually moved downward to a low of $13,115/mt, before rebounding to close at $13,239/mt, up 1.06%, with trading volume reaching 26,500 lots and open interest at 326,000 lots, an increase of 893 lots from the previous session, overall showing bulls increasing positions. The most-traded SHFE copper contract 2603 opened at 103,620 yuan/mt overnight, climbed to 103,730 yuan/mt at the beginning of the session, then experienced wide swings and touched a low of 101,840 yuan/mt, before fluctuating upward to close at 102,190 yuan/mt, up 0.26%, with trading volume at 69,800 lots and open interest at 152,000 lots, a decrease of 6,478 lots from the previous session, overall showing bears reducing positions.

This week's core impact stemmed from the nearly two-week full shutdown of the Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia following a mudslide accident on September 8. Freeport estimated that copper sales volumes in Q4 2025 would nearly stagnate, and 2026 production could be approximately 35% lower than previous forecasts, sparking market concerns about a significant contraction in global copper ore supply. Copper prices surged over 3% during the night session, hitting a new yearly high. On the macro front, the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association emphasized opposition to "involutionary" competition in smelting, deepening supply worries. However, the US Q2 GDP was significantly revised up to 3.8%, and initial jobless claims also came in lower than expected, reinforcing expectations of US economic resilience. The US dollar index rose sharply, putting a cap on the rise in copper prices. Overall, supply-side disruptions and macro policy dynamics are intertwined, leading to significantly increased short-term copper price volatility, with both high-level risks and support present. This week, LME copper broke to a new high, touching the $10,500/mt level mid-week, while SHFE copper also rose to a yearly high, generally fluctuating around 83,000 yuan/mt. On the fundamentals side, spot trading for copper concentrates was inactive this week, with the spot TC holding around negative $40/mt. Arrivals of imported copper were flat compared to last week, and trading among traders was also sluggish. Downstream consumption was noticeably weak due to the surge in copper prices, resulting in a very subdued pre-holiday stockpiling atmosphere. The weekly operating rate of processing enterprises was poor, and spot premiums declined steadily. Looking ahead to next week, with only two trading days, macro front information is expected to be relatively quiet. Market trading will likely remain focused on mine production disruptions and macro policies. LME copper is forecast to fluctuate between $10,200/mt and $10,400/mt, while SHFE copper is expected to move between 81,500 yuan/mt and 83,000 yuan/mt. On the spot side, the sluggish atmosphere is expected to persist next week, with weak pre-holiday demand. Spot prices against the SHFE copper 2510 contract are anticipated to range from a discount of 80 yuan/mt to a premium of 120 yuan/mt.

On June 11 (Wednesday), Alejandro Sanhueza, the Chief Financial Officer of Codelco, the world's largest copper producer based in Chile, stated that the company would focus more on public-private partnerships (PPPs) to improve its financial position and enhance its ability to develop new projects, all aimed at increasing production. During the energy transition, global demand for copper and lithium has been growing, leading to a surge in demand. Codelco has been struggling to increase its production after hitting a 25-year low in 2023. The decline in production is partly due to falling ore grades and delays in key mine transformation projects. His remarks represent the strongest indication yet that the state-owned enterprise will focus on seeking support from the private sector to boost growth. Sanhueza said that PPPs would serve as "pillars of growth" rather than being used for major overhaul projects or any existing operations, in compliance with the company's nationalization regulations, which prohibit its mines from accepting private funding. "Greenfield initiatives (new projects) are a key part of our growth strategy and an opportunity to collaborate with third parties. This will also help diversify risks," Sanhueza said. "Our exploration partnerships allow us to attract external financing and (production) capabilities, enabling us to accelerate value creation by leveraging the additional resources available to Codelco." In addition to its recent lithium joint venture, Codelco has also reached agreements with Rio Tinto and BHP to explore new potential copper mines, which sources say are promising. Codelco already has a partnership with Freeport-McMoRan at the El Abra mine and owns a one-fifth stake in Anglo American. This year, it also acquired a 10% stake in the Quebrada Blanca resource from smaller company Enami. Sanhueza said another goal is to establish joint infrastructure to facilitate the adoption of new technologies or minimize environmental impact. Earlier this year, Codelco announced an agreement to jointly operate an adjacent copper mine with Anglo American. The company said it would increase production by 120,000 mt per year over 21 years. The company is also strengthening its exploration budget, which averaged $83 million annually in 2023 and 2024 and will increase to an average of $150 million per year from 2025 to 2029. "Collaboration with third parties allows us to better utilize these resources, which complement our own projects," Sanhueza said.

Recently, Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (hereinafter referred to as "Freeport"), the largest copper producer in North America, stated that despite US President Trump's earlier claim that the copper tariffs he threatened to impose could support the US copper industry, the actual outcome might be counterproductive—tariffs could impact the economy, leading to a decline in copper demand, which would in turn be detrimental to the industry. Broad tariffs may instead dampen copper demand In recent times, US President Trump has threatened to impose tariffs on copper to drive the recovery of domestic industries. In late February this year, Trump instructed the US Secretary of Commerce to launch an investigation into foreign copper imports under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act and submit a report within 270 days. As the largest copper producer in North America, the imposition of tariffs on copper imports by the US should have been a positive development for Freeport, as the company could profit by selling copper at a premium. However, the company's CEO has warned that tariffs could also have a negative impact on the company. "If global economic growth is hindered, it could impact copper prices," Kathleen Quirk, CEO of Freeport, said in an interview. "Ironically, if we try to build up the US copper industry, slower GDP growth and inflation could put significant pressure on copper mines here." Quirk claimed that the US copper industry is currently in a turbulent period. As many industries and applications, including automotive, consumer electronics, and residential construction, are highly dependent on copper, copper tariffs could impose high costs on various sectors of the US economy. Copper tariffs have both positive and negative implications for the company Under Trump's tariff threats, US copper prices have been pushed higher than those in other markets. Currently, copper prices on the Comex are about 9.3% higher than those on the London Metal Exchange (LME), providing traders and producers with greater incentive to continue shifting supplies to the US before potential copper tariffs take effect. In April this year, the premium for copper on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) relative to the LME even reached 13% at one point. At that time, Freeport claimed that such a level was equivalent to a financial benefit of approximately $800 million per year from its copper sales. Freeport owns seven open-pit mines and one smelter in the US, which means it produces about 70% of the refined copper in the country. Quirk stated, "We do benefit from copper tariffs because they raise the price of our copper in the US domestic market... but if there are hefty tariffs and a trade war, we will be concerned about global demand for copper." Quark stated that she maintains a "neutral" stance on copper tariff policies, believing that copper import tariffs have both advantages and disadvantages for her. She noted that Freeport also has copper production sites in Indonesia, Spain, Peru, and Chile, and that tariff-driven trade wars could harm market demand for copper. Compared to tariffs, Freeport has called on the Trump administration to adopt other incentives to promote copper mining in the US, such as the tax credits included in the Inflation Reduction Act—a benefit that US lithium and nickel miners are already eligible for. "The cost structure in the US is higher than globally," Quark said. "Therefore, if you want to protect this industry, you need to consider how to incentivize it."