[SMM Tin Morning Briefing: The Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract Opened Slightly Higher in the Night Session and Then Fluctuated Downward, While Downstream Enterprises Concentrated Their Restocking on Dips]

In January 2026, the European Union and India reached a historic Free Trade Agreement (FTA), with the elimination of steel tariffs of up to 22% becoming a major market focus. However, clearing the policy fog of "bilateral exemptions" and analyzing actual export and carbon emission data reveals that the steel industry faces a highly asymmetric trade reshaping. This seemingly fair reduction is actually Europe trading a "capped" ticket for India's "uncapped" massive incremental market.

Following the conclusion of the India-EU FTA in late January 2026, tariffs on iron and steel products—previously as high as 22%—are set to be eliminated across almost all tariff lines. This agreement aims to integrate Indian suppliers more deeply into European value chains, although exporters must still navigate the newly enforced Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM).

Since the "Regulation on Ensuring Payments to Small and Medium-sized Enterprises" officially came into effect on June 1, 2025, the automotive industry has responded swiftly. Seventeen mainstream automakers, including GAC, FAW, Dongfeng, and BYD, have publicly committed to uniformly shortening the payment terms for suppliers to within 60 days. This seemingly simple adjustment to payment terms is actually reshaping the underlying logic of the automotive supply chain. Especially for upstream battery cell manufacturers, its impact has gone beyond the level of capital turnover, touching the core lifeline of industrial development.

SMM Nickel News on June 4: Macro News: (1) Tariffs: ① The Trump administration raised tariffs on steel and aluminum to 50%, effective from June 4; ② Sources: The US presented Vietnam with a "long and stringent" list of demands during tariff negotiations; ③ Sources: The EU has not received a letter from the US requesting "best trade offers"; ④ Brazilian President: If no agreement on tariffs is reached with the US, Brazil will resort to the WTO or take reciprocal measures; ⑤ The India-EU Free Trade Agreement is accelerating, with consensus reached on nearly half of the issues. (2) The Ministry of Commerce and four other departments organized the 2025 New Energy Vehicle (NEV) Rural Promotion Campaign. Market entities in various fields, including NEV production, sales, finance, battery charging/swapping, and after-sales services, are encouraged to participate. By integrating policy tools such as trade-in policies and measures to address shortcomings in charging/swapping infrastructure in counties, an integrated sales promotion plan of "car purchase discounts + energy use support + service guarantees" will be customized, and an after-sales service network covering the entire lifecycle of car purchase, use, and maintenance will be improved. Spot Market: Today, the SMM 1# refined nickel price is 122,100-124,750 yuan/mt, with an average price of 123,425 yuan/mt, up 575 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The quotation range for spot premiums of Jinchuan #1 refined nickel is 2,400-2,600 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 2,500 yuan/mt, down 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The quotation range for premiums and discounts of Russian refined nickel is 100-600 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 350 yuan/mt, up 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Futures Market: The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (NI2507) opened lower and closed higher in the night session, ending at 121,860 yuan/mt, up slightly by 0.25%. It continued to strengthen during the day session, closing at 122,700 yuan/mt by 11:30, up 0.94%. In the medium and long term, the global overcapacity of nickel capacity remains unresolved, with the nickel market under triple pressures of "high supply, weak demand, and tight funding". In the short term, the bottom of the oscillation range is seen at 118,000 yuan/mt, while the top is under pressure at 123,000 yuan/mt.

[Tariff Summary] ① The Trump administration raised tariffs on steel and aluminum to 50%, effective from the 4th; ② Sources: The US presented Vietnam with a "long and demanding" list of requirements during tariff negotiations; ③ Sources: The EU has not received a letter from the US requesting "best trade offers"; ④ Brazilian President: If an agreement on tariffs cannot be reached with the US, Brazil will resort to the WTO or take reciprocal measures; ⑤ The India-EU Free Trade Agreement is accelerating, with consensus reached on nearly half of the issues.

SHFE Tin Prices Rebound During Night Session, Spot Market May Cool Down [SMM Tin Morning Brief] Futures Market: The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2507) experienced a slight pullback after the opening of the night session and then fluctuated rangebound, with the price center moving slightly higher to around 254,000 yuan/mt, up 1.54% from yesterday. Macro: (1) Lin Jian, spokesperson for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, pointed out that the US, without any factual basis, has smeared and accused China, imposed export controls on chips to China, suspended the sale of chip design and software to China, and announced the revocation of visas for Chinese students, among other extreme repressive measures. These actions have seriously undermined the Geneva consensus and harmed China's legitimate rights and interests. China firmly opposes this and has lodged solemn representations. (Bearish ★) (2) The Ministry of Commerce and four other departments have organized the 2025 New Energy Vehicle (NEV) Rural Promotion Campaign. (Bullish ★) (3) WSTS: The global semiconductor market size is expected to reach $700.9 billion in 2025. (Bullish ★)

[India’s Iron and Alumina Exports to UK Face Carbon Tariff Despite New Trade Deal] Despite the recent Free Trade Agreement (FTA) between India and the UK, Indian exports of carbon-intensive goods—such as iron, steel, and alumina—remain subject to potential tariffs under the UK’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). An estimated US$775 million worth of Indian goods could be impacted, with tariffs reaching up to 35%. CBAM, originally introduced by the EU and later adopted by the UK, is designed to price carbon emissions embedded in imported products. During negotiations, India sought exemptions for its micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs), citing the challenge of meeting complex data requirements and the risk of exposing sensitive trade data. The issue remains a sticking point despite the broader benefits promised by the FTA.

According to the website of the Ministry of Commerce, on May 20, the Special Meeting of China-ASEAN Ministers Responsible for Trade and Economy was held online, where the trade and economy ministers of both sides jointly announced the full conclusion of negotiations for Version 3.0 of the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area (FTA). The negotiations for Version 3.0 commenced in November 2022 and, after nearly two years and nine rounds of formal negotiations, were substantially concluded in October 2024. With the full coordination and joint promotion of the trade and economy ministers of various countries, both sides have fully concluded the negotiations, taking a crucial step towards the goal of signing the upgraded protocol. Version 3.0 will send a strong message in support of free trade and open cooperation. China and ASEAN are each other's largest trading partners and important investment partners, and both are staunch supporters of economic globalization and multilateralism. The construction of Version 3.0, as a priority in the economic and trade cooperation between the two sides, is a landmark achievement in jointly safeguarding and deepening free trade. Amid significant challenges facing global economic and trade relations, the full conclusion of negotiations by both sides aligns with the global development trend, underscores the strong vitality of free trade and open cooperation, will inject greater certainty into regional and global trade, and will play a leading and exemplary role in upholding openness, inclusiveness, and win-win cooperation among countries. Version 3.0 will create an inclusive, modern, comprehensive, and mutually beneficial free trade agreement. Version 3.0 includes nine new chapters on the digital economy, green economy, supply chain connectivity, standards, technical regulations, and conformity assessment procedures, customs procedures and trade facilitation, sanitary and phytosanitary measures, competition and consumer protection, micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises, and economic and technical cooperation. This will facilitate the promotion of broader and deeper regional economic integration between the two sides under the new circumstances, significantly enhance the deep integration of their industrial and supply chains, and hold significant pioneering significance. Version 3.0 will effectively promote the construction of a China-ASEAN community with a shared future. As two major developing economies, China and ASEAN, through the construction of Version 3.0 of the FTA, will jointly expand mutual openness and comprehensively expand cooperation in emerging fields and new quality productive forces. This will provide important institutional guarantees for promoting the construction of a super-large market between China and ASEAN, and offer lasting impetus for advancing the construction of a China-ASEAN community with a shared future and promoting common prosperity and development between the two sides. Next, both sides will actively advance their respective domestic signing and ratification procedures to facilitate the formal signing of the upgraded protocol for Version 3.0 of the China-ASEAN FTA before the end of the year.

On April 18th, at the AICE 2025 SMM (20th) Aluminum Industry Conference & Aluminum Industry Expo - Global Secondary Aluminum Industry Development Forum , hosted by SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd. (SMM), SMM Metal Exchange Center, and Shandong Aisi Information Technology Co., Ltd., and co-organized by Zhongyifeng Jinyi (Suzhou) Technology Co., Ltd. and Lezhi County Qianrun Investment Promotion Service Co., Ltd., WENCESLAO MANZANO HERNANDEZ, President of DIMEXA HOLDINGS PTE. LTD., provided an interpretation of Mexico's export policies for secondary metals. Mexico: A Key Trading Partner Mexico is a crucial participant in the global economy, with a Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of $1.79 trillion, making it the world's 12th largest economy. In 2024, Mexico's total trade volume with the US reached $843 billion, becoming the largest trading partner of the US, surpassing Canada and China. In the same year, Mexico's total trade volume with China reached $100 billion. Mexico has the largest number of free trade agreements, with 13 agreements covering at least 50 countries. Main Products Exported by Mexico Automobiles and automotive parts, electronics and electrical equipment, machinery and industrial equipment, mineral fuels and oil, and agricultural products, among others. US-Mexico Trade Relations In 2018, the US imposed tariffs under "Section 232" on steel (with a 25% tariff) and aluminum (with a 10% tariff) imported from multiple countries, including Mexico. ・This raised concerns about damage to the integrated supply chain, particularly in the automotive industry. ・In 2019, the US agreed to remove the "Section 232" tariffs on steel and aluminum imported from Mexico and Canada. ・Part of the purpose of this decision was to facilitate the ratification of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). Aluminum Scrap Market ・Mexico exports aluminum scrap to multiple destinations worldwide. ・Single-alloy scrap is mainly exported to the US, Brazil, and Europe. For example, scrap of grades 5052, 6,016, 5,081, 3003, etc. ・Most casting alloys are consumed within Mexico's domestic automotive industry, with only a small amount exported. For example, casting alloys of grades A380, AC12, etc. ・Some other mixed-grade aluminum scrap is exported to Asia. For example, Taint Tabor, aluminum radiators. Copper Scrap Market ・China is by far the largest consumer of copper scrap. ・There is also domestic demand in the US for some higher-grade copper scrap. ・Mexico does not import copper scrap from the US; if copper scrap is imported from the US to Mexico, a 16% VAT is required. Opportunities for Mexico in the Non-Ferrous Metals Market ・Production Growth and Rising Demand. Mexico's expanding manufacturing sector (automotive, electronics) drives production and demand for recycled non-ferrous metals. ・Proximity to the US: Close trade ties with the US facilitate scrap metal trade. ・Increased Recycling Awareness: Growing concerns over environmental issues drive recycling efforts. ・Investment in Advanced Recycling Technologies: In Mexico, there is a growing demand and opportunity to invest in modern technologies for sorting, processing, and refining non-ferrous metal scrap. ・Development of Specialized Recycling Processes: With the growth of industries such as electronics and renewable energy in Mexico, there are opportunities to develop specialized recycling processes for specific non-ferrous metals. For example, recycling of batteries and electronic waste. Challenges for Mexico in the Non-Ferrous Metals Market ・Market Volatility: Similar to global commodities, prices of non-ferrous metals can be volatile, affecting profitability. The Mexican market is guided by the London Metal Exchange but is also influenced by the Chicago Metal Exchange and Midwest Premium in the US. ・Logistics and Infrastructure: Mexico's domestic infrastructure varies, and there are logistical bottlenecks that complicate the collection, processing, and transportation of scrap. ・Regulatory Issues: Evolving or unclear regulations regarding scrap handling, import/export, and environmental compliance can create uncertainty and increase operational costs. ・Quality and Sorting: Ensuring scrap quality and proper sorting is challenging, especially in finding qualified labor. ・Competition: The market may face competition from both domestic and overseas participants, including established recycling companies and the informal sector. ・Economic Uncertainty: Mexico's overall economic conditions, including currency fluctuations and potential economic slowdowns, may affect demand and investment in the industry. ・Safety Concerns: In some regions, safety issues and organized crime may pose risks to companies involved in the collection and transportation of valuable non-ferrous metals. Importance of Establishing Partnerships ・Navigating Regulations and Bureaucracy: Mexico's regulatory environment is complex. Local partners are often more familiar with the rules, licensing requirements, and procedures, which can help streamline business operations and ensure compliance. • Establishing a Local Network: Building partnerships can provide connections to existing networks of suppliers, buyers, and other industry participants. This is crucial for sourcing scrap, selling processed metals, and establishing solid business relationships. DIMEXA Dimexa is a leading company in Mexico specializing in the management of industrial and post-consumer non-ferrous metal scrap. With 40 years of experience in the market, Dimexa currently sells 300,000 mt of non-ferrous metal scrap annually. • Scrap Metal Management: Dimexa offers comprehensive services, including the collection, processing, and sale of scrap. • National Presence: Dimexa operates 17 scrap recycling yards across Mexico. • Logistics Capabilities: Dimexa has a large fleet of vehicles and containers for efficient collection and delivery of materials. It currently handles an average of 1,000 containers per month. • Focus on Compliance: The company emphasizes adherence to environmental regulations and holds all necessary permits to operate across Mexico. • Market Reach: Dimexa has over 35 years of experience selling to the Chinese market and other international markets. 》Click to view the special report on AICE 2025 SMM (20th) Aluminum Conference & Aluminum Industry Expo