[Geopolitical Risk Premium Exits Market, Aluminum Prices Under Short-Term Pressure and Volatility] On the macro front, the US and Iran have completed signing an electronic MOU. Expectations of geopolitical easing continue to materialize, market panic over the Middle East conflict continues to fade, and the geopolitical risk premium for commodities has weakened significantly. US May CPI rose 4.2% YoY, hitting a three-year high, while core CPI also strengthened. The market continues to bet on the Fed restarting rate hikes within the year, and expectations of tightening liquidity continue to suppress metal valuations. On the fundamentals side, the Middle East conflict caused involuntary production cuts in overseas aluminum capacity. Expectations of a global supply deficit continue to widen, and coupled with expectations of rising energy costs, this provides strong bottom support for LME aluminum. China’s inventory destocking trend has been established, and the destocking logic continues to be realized. The rebound in the proportion of liquid aluminum, support from export demand, and supply normalization compressing aluminum ingot formation—these three fundamental factors jointly drive the continuation of destocking. SMM maintains its forecast that inventory will fall to around 1.28 million mt by late June, and may further approach 1.2 million mt by end-June/early July, bringing some support to aluminum prices. However, the pressure from high domestic inventory remains relatively pronounced. Coupled with the currently bearish macro sentiment dominating the market, short-term domestic aluminum prices are mainly in the doldrums, with volatile adjustments.

SMM June 16 news: [SMM] June 16 SMM A00 aluminum (Foshan) reported at 23,790, down 350, discount to the current month 90, flat (unit: yuan/mt) Today, the futures market suddenly plummeted, while South China spot aluminum struggled to remain firm. Absolute prices plunged sharply, forming a hedge against the steady destocking of inventory, and holders attempted to ride the momentum and raise prices in the morning; but with the spot-futures price spread expected to stay high, there remained room for hedging-based shipments, supply actually loosened somewhat, making it difficult to push prices higher, with mainstream quotations concentrated at a premium of 0 to +10 yuan/mt. Demand side, downstream players were initially somewhat cautious, after failing to push for lower prices, gradually shifted to buying the dip, providing some support; traders were also willing to take non-premium cargoes, and overall, transactions were satisfactory. Spot transaction prices were concentrated at a premium of -110 to -70 yuan/mt over the SHFE aluminum 2607 contract.

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] SS Futures Extend Gains, Off-Season Stainless Steel Market Sentiment Warms Up According to SMM on June 16, SS futures showed a further strong upward momentum. Although SHFE nickel trended somewhat weaker, SS continued to hold up well. As of the midday close, the most-traded SS contract settled at 15,180 yuan/mt. In the spot market, driven by the sustained gains in SS futures, trading and inquiry activity for stainless steel picked up. At the same time, coupled with the news of delayed production resumptions at steel mills, although the off-season has already set in and macro uncertainties remain high, market quotes edged up to some extent on improved sentiment. The most-traded SS futures contract. At 10:15 a.m., SS2607 was quoted at 15,095 yuan/mt, up 240 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in Wuxi were in the range of 125-525 yuan/mt. In the spot market, the average price for Wuxi cold-rolled 201/2B coil was flat; for cold-rolled mill edge 304/2B coil, the average price in Wuxi rose 75 yuan/mt, and in Foshan rose 50 yuan/mt; the price of cold-rolled 316L/2B coil in Wuxi rose 100 yuan/mt; for hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coil, Wuxi quotes rose 50 yuan/mt; cold-rolled 430/2B coil in both Wuxi and Foshan held steady. This week, stainless steel futures and spot prices both came under pressure and weakened, as macro headwinds from outside China dominated trading and pessimistic sentiment spread rapidly during the off-season. Industry expectations for the near-term outlook turned weaker, end-users remained heavily on the sidelines, rigid demand stayed sluggish, and traders concentrated on cutting prices to sell and destock...

[Geopolitical easing combined with manufacturing slowdown exert dual suppression, SHFE and LME aluminum prices plunge significantly] SMM maintains its forecast that inventory will drop to around 1.28 million mt by late June, and may further approach 1.2 million mt by the end of June or early July, providing some support for aluminum prices. However, the pressure from high domestic inventory remains relatively evident, and coupled with the currently dominant bearish macro sentiment in the market, domestic aluminum prices are expected to mainly be in the doldrums with adjustments in the short term.

SMM, June 15 – [SMM] On June 15, SMM A00 aluminum (Foshan) was reported at 24,140, unchanged, with a discount of 20 for the current month and a discount of 90 for the next month (unit: yuan/mt) Today, the futures market stabilized and edged lower, with spot aluminum in South China in the doldrums. Tight weekend arrivals and a sharp inventory drawdown provided confidence support for holders, who held prices firm for shipments in the early session; however, with absolute prices and spot-futures price spreads at relatively high levels, monetization needs gradually took over, accelerating the shipment pace. Quotations were slightly lowered to a discount of -10 to 0 yuan/mt, with actual circulation being ample and even cheaper sources available. Demand side, after concentrated restocking last week, downstream users returned to a just-in-time purchasing pace today, showing no urgency in buying; traders pushed for lower prices, shifting to discount procurement, with marginal improvement in enthusiasm, but overall absorption capacity remained limited. Momentum on both ends was weak, and transactions were hardly ideal. Spot transaction prices were concentrated at a premium of -40 to 0 yuan/mt over the SHFE aluminum 2606 contract.

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] Stainless Steel Futures Stabilize, Spot Trades Pick Up SMM reported on June 12 that SS futures stopped falling and stabilized. News of easing US-Iran conflict emerged again, nonferrous metal futures generally staged a recovery, and SS strengthened in tandem. As of midday close, the most-traded SS contract was quoted at 14,715 yuan/mt. In the spot market, driven by the strengthening of SS futures, market activity improved. In the morning session, both inquiries and transactions recovered, and traders raised their offers. The most-traded SS futures contract pulled back. At 10:15 a.m., SS2607 was reported at 14,705 yuan/mt, up 300 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in Wuxi ranged from 365-915 yuan/mt. In the spot market, the average price of cold-rolled 201/2B coil in Wuxi remained flat; for cold-rolled 304/2B trimmed edge coil, the average price in Wuxi rose 50 yuan/mt, and in Foshan rose 50 yuan/mt; cold-rolled 316L/2B coil in Wuxi fell 200 yuan/mt; hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coil in Wuxi was flat; cold-rolled 430/2B coil in both Wuxi and Foshan held steady. This week, stainless steel futures and spot prices both declined under pressure, as macro headwinds outside China dominated the market and off-season pessimism spread quickly. The industry’s outlook expectations weakened, end-users remained on the sidelines, and rigid demand stayed sluggish. Traders concentrated on selling to destock and offered discounts. On the futures front, overseas macro developments were the core driver this week. The US non-farm payrolls data significantly exceeded expectations, the unemployment rate stayed low, and the market delayed or even canceled expectations for a US Fed interest rate cut within the year…

The EEC's Department for Internal Market Defence has issued its final disclosure for the first AD sunset review on stainless steel welded pipes from China, concluding that removing existing measures would lead to a recurrence of dumping and injury to EAEU industries. It has recommended extending AD duties for a further five years. The products covered are corrosion-resistant steel welded pipes and hollow profiles with wall thickness of 0.4–6mm in circular, rectangular, or square cross-sections (HS codes 7306 40 2009, 7306 40 800 1, 7306 40 800 8, and 7306 61 1009). Current duty rates stand at 14.62% for Foshan Vinmay Stainless Steel Co., Ltd. and 17.28% for Guangdong Sumwin New Material Group Co., Ltd. and other Chinese producers.

[SMM Aluminum Bulletin] China's secondary aluminum alloy ingot inventory in major consumption areas was 25,500 mt today, down 463 mt from the previous day. Foshan and Ningbo continued destocking.

[Domestic and overseas aluminum prices see a modest simultaneous recovery; China's destocking stabilizes with limited upside room] SMM maintains its assessment that inventory will drop to around 1.28 million mt by late June, and is expected to further approach 1.2 million mt by end-June or early July. The futures market sees short-term stabilization signals, but high domestic inventory pressure remains relatively evident, which is expected to limit the upside room for domestic aluminum prices. In the short term, domestic aluminum prices are expected to mainly fluctuate and consolidate.

Discounts in the three regions widened to varying degrees from the beginning of the year to May, which was directly related to the sustained suppression of spot circulation by high inventory earlier. After entering June, as the destocking inflection point has gradually been established, premiums and discounts in the three regions have shown a divergent recovery trend...