Middle East tensions have sparked a massive steel trade "mismatch." Iran's blocked exports created a 2.3-million-ton billet vacuum in Southeast Asia, while the Red Sea crisis stalled China's flat steel shipments to the Gulf. Consequently, China and India are rapidly absorbing SEA's diverted billet orders. SMM projects that blocked flat steel returning to China's domestic market, combined with surging overseas billet demand, will accelerate the narrowing of the domestic HRC-rebar spread.

[SMM Analysis] Freight Rates Surge, Making Deals Difficult for Steel Expor ters Affected by the US-Iran conflict, tight energy supply and sharply higher fuel costs, compounded by exchange rate fluctuations, have continuously pushed up China's export offers in recent days. Compared with the beginning of the month (March 6), SMM HRC prices have been raised by $9/mt; galvanizing prices rose by $11/mt; CRC rose by $5/mt; billet rose by $6/mt; and rebar rose by $6/mt. However, looking back at market transaction performance, deals weakened again recently. According to the SMM survey, ocean freight rates surged sharply, with current freight to the Middle East as high as $50-60. Most outside China clients remained on the sidelines; shipowners also refused to commit tonnage while waiting for the market to stabilize. For China exporters, there were offers but no market, making shipments difficult. Meanwhile, market sources said Hadeed, the GCC's only flat steel producer, raised its May hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices, still related to shipping restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz. HRC cargoes previously booked from China and other origins were also being redirected to the west coast, mainly heading to Jeddah Port, bringing high inland transportation costs. As for global steel prices, in India, in addition to rising raw material costs and rupee depreciation, a sudden LNG energy shortage further pushed up production costs, forcing steel mills to maintain a strong willingness to hold prices firm despite the traditional domestic off-season and blocked exports. In the Southeast Asian market, price increases were accepted entirely passively, mainly due to the rigid pass-through of high ocean freight rates by overseas suppliers. Although Southeast Asian buyers hesitated to take orders, they had no choice but to passively accept the increases against the backdrop of persistently high geopolitical logistics costs. At the same time, CIS export offers also rose significantly, benefiting from the intensifying geopolitical conflict in the Middle East and the resulting short-term global supply tightens. In the Middle East market, meanwhile, as war tensions continued to escalate, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz completely disrupted transportation, while freight rates and delivery uncertainty pushed the sheets & plates import markets in the UAE and Saudi Arabia into a complete standstill. Copyright and Intellectual Property Statement: This report is independently created or compiled by SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "SMM"), and SMM legally enjoys complete copyright and related intellectual property rights. The copyright, trademark rights, domain name rights, commercial data information property rights, and other related intellectual property rights of all content contained in this report (including but not limited to information, articles, data, charts, pictures, audio, video, logos, advertisements, trademarks, trade names, domain names, layout designs, etc.) are owned or held by SMM or its related right holders. The above rights are strictly protected by relevant laws and regulations of the People's Republic of China, such as the Copyright Law of the People's Republic of China, the Trademark Law of the People's Republic of China, and the Anti-Unfair Competition Law of the People's Republic of China, as well as applicable international treaties. Without prior written authorization from SMM, no institution or individual may: 1. Use all or part of this report in any form (including but not limited to reprinting, modifying, selling, transferring, displaying, translating, compiling, disseminating); 2. Disclose the content of this report to any third party; 3. License or authorize any third party to use the content of this report; 4. For any unauthorized use, SMM will legally pursue the legal responsibilities of the infringer, demanding that they bear legal responsibilities including but not limited to contractual breach liability, returning unjust enrichment, and compensating for direct and indirect economic losses. Data Source Statement: (Except for publicly available information, other data in this report are derived from publicly available information (including but not limited to industry news, seminars, exhibitions, corporate financial reports, brokerage reports, data from the National Bureau of Statistics, customs import and export data, various data published by major associations and institutions, etc.), market exchanges, and comprehensive analysis and reasonable inferences made by the research team based on SMM's internal database models. This information is for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice. SMM reserves the final interpretation right of the terms in this statement and the right to adjust and modify the content of the statement according to actual circumstances.

Total rebar inventory stood at 8.2948 million mt this week, up 277,000 mt WoW, or 3.46% (previous: +11.33%), and up 363,200 mt from the same period of the previous lunar year, or 4.58% (previous: +4.6%).

On February 18, 2026, the WTO Committee on Safeguards issued a notification of safeguard measures submitted by the Egyptian delegation. The Egyptian investigating authority made an affirmative final determination on imported Hot Rolled Flat Steel (HRC/HRFS) and recommended imposing safeguard duties (including provisional safeguard measures) based on the CIF value for three years, as follows: from September 14, 2025, to September 13, 2026, at 13.6% and not less than 3,673 EGP/mt; from September 14, 2026, to September 13, 2027, at 13% and not less than 3,511 EGP/mt; from September 14, 2027, to September 13, 2028, at 12.5% and not less than 3,376 EGP/mt. The implementation of these measures will be subject to a ministerial tax order. These measures do not apply to HRC with a thickness exceeding 20 millimeters and a width greater than 1,600 millimeters. The Egyptian tariff numbers for the products under investigation are 7208.10, 7208.25, 7208.26, 7208.27, 7208.36, 7208.37, 7208.38, 7208.39, 7208.40, 7208.51, 7208.52, 7208.53, 7208.54, 7208.90, 7211.14, 7211.19, 7225.30, 7225.40, 7226.91, and 7226.99. Interested parties should submit applications for consultations within seven days of the announcement. Contact details of the Egyptian investigating authority: Ministry of Investment and Foreign Trade Trade Remedies Sector Contact: Mrs. Yomna Elshabrawy Address: New Capital – Governmental District Cairo, Egypt. Email: mailto:itpd@tas.gov.eg On April 27, 2025, Egypt announced in its official gazette that, at the request of Egyptian producers, it initiated a safeguard investigation on imported HRC on April 22, 2025. On September 10, 2025, the WTO Committee on Safeguards issued a notification of safeguard measures submitted by the Egyptian delegation, stating that Egypt made an affirmative preliminary determination in the case. The period of investigation was from January 2021 to December 2024. (Compiled from the WTO website) Original text: https://docs.wto.org/dol2fe/Pages/SS/directdoc.aspx?filename=Q:/G/SG/N8EGY11.pdf&Open=True

[Special Steel Price Adjustment] SMM February 25: A large domestic special steel enterprise adjusted its product selling prices for March 2026 as follows on a MoM basis: 1. Bar, commercial billet, forged material: raised by 100 yuan/mt; 2. Flat steel: raised by 200 yuan/mt; 3. Steel plate: raised by 50 yuan/mt; 4. Wire rod, steel pipe: unchanged; 5. Molybdenum-containing steel: raised by 300 yuan/mt for each 1% Mo content; 6. Tungsten-containing steel: raised by 3,500 yuan/mt for each 1% W content. This price adjustment takes effect from February 26, 2026.

SMM Flash:On the first day after the holiday, steel export prices fluctuated by $1-5 per ton, with most mainstream orders currently scheduled for late March to April. Based on transaction data, post-holiday restarts show reasonably good market sentiment, with traders reporting a busy inquiry flow during the day. Among flat steel products, galvanized steel is performing slightly stronger.

【SMM Steel】IDOM won the FEED phase for HADEED's Flat Products Expansion Project in Jubail. The project aims to boost capacity and logistics. It shows HADEED's commitment to meeting growing demand for premium flat steel. IDOM will use advanced tech to improve efficiency and supply chain reliability. The expansion will enhance productivity and flexibility using Jubail's infrastructure.

[SMM Weekly Review: Flat Steel Tender Prices Released, Chromium Market Remains Stable] On May 23, 2025, the ex-factory price of high-carbon ferrochrome in Inner Mongolia was 8,000-8,100 yuan/mt (50% metal content), unchanged from the previous trading day...

The Ministry of Finance of India announced on April 21, 2025, the imposition of a 12% provisional safeguard duty on imports of non-alloy/alloy flat steel products (HS codes 7208, 7209, etc.), effective for 200 days. A minimum CIF price of $675-964/mt was set, with imports exceeding this limit exempt from the duty. The measures took effect immediately...

According to a survey by the World Steel Association (WSA), the main reasons for the consistently low steel capacity utilisation rate in Thailand are due to the reliability, efficiency, and cost of steel mill production. In 2024, the local steel capacity utilisation rate in Thailand was less than 30%, still requiring a large amount of imports to meet domestic steel demand, placing the country in a net import position. At the same time, the absolute value of per capita crude steel consumption in Thailand remains at a relatively low level, with significant room for growth. The local crude steel capacity utilisation rate is low, and in January 2025, the Board of Investment (BOI) of Thailand announced the latest version of the investment promotion guidelines, stating that applications for new long and flat steel product projects would be cancelled, allowing only existing projects to apply for investment incentives based on smart and sustainable industrial standards. Moreover, the incentive levels were uniformly adjusted from the previous A4 or B grade to B grade, reflecting the difficulty in increasing new steel capacity. Therefore, although some anti-dumping investigations have been initiated, the status as a net importer may be hard to change in the short term...