SMM June 20 news: Metals markets: Overnight, the domestic base metals market was closed for the Dragon Boat Festival holiday. Looking back at the performance of domestic base metals on June 18: Domestic base metals showed mixed performance, with SHFE zinc up 0.39%, SHFE aluminum up 0.38%, and SHFE nickel edging up. SHFE tin fell 2.03%, SHFE copper fell 0.48%, and SHFE lead fell 0.15%. Overnight, the ferrous metals market was closed for the Dragon Boat Festival holiday. Looking back at the performance of ferrous metals on June 18: Stainless steel rose 0.07%, iron ore fell 1.13%, rebar fell 0.95%. HRC fell 0.77%. The most-traded coking coal contract fell 5.78%, and the most-traded coke contract fell 3%. Overnight in overseas metals, LME base metals mostly fell. LME copper fell 0.5%. LME aluminum rose 0.12%, LME lead fell 1.32%. LME zinc fell 2.05%. LME tin rose 0.19%. LME nickel fell 1.41%. Overnight in precious metals : COMEX gold fell 1.72%, posting its third straight weekly decline and down 1.55% for the week; COMEX silver fell 2.12%, marking six consecutive weekly declines and down 4.51% for the week. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE gold contract was closed; SHFE gold rose on the week, up 4.11% for the week. The most-traded SHFE silver contract was closed; SHFE silver rose on the week, up 5.25% for the week. With no longer expecting the Fed to cut interest rates in 2026, Goldman Sachs lowered its year-end gold price forecast by $500. Analysts Lina Thomas and Daan Struyven said in a note: "We are revising down our 12-month gold price target to $4,900/oz (from $5,400), implying that gold prices are still expected to rise in H2, but less than previously anticipated. Our view on gold prices remains structurally constructive but tactically cautious, with near-term downside risks and medium-term upside risks." The analysts said the downward revision was due to Goldman Sachs economists pushing back their US rate cut expectations to June and December next year, from the previous forecast of December 2026 and March 2027, as well as lower projected gold ETF inflows. They added that, given the "unexpectedly hawkish" first Fed meeting under Chairman Warsh, concerns about central bank independence may be limited. (Jin10 Data) As of 7:47 am on June 20, overnight closing prices: Macro front Domestic front: [NFRA: Advance the construction of AI application infrastructure in the financial industry] The National Financial Regulatory Administration (NFRA) issued guidelines on the safe development and application of artificial intelligence in banking and insurance. It proposes to promote the construction of an AI application ecosystem in the financial sector. Advance the development of AI application infrastructure in the financial industry and promote the sharing and reuse of AI application outcomes across the sector. Encourage large financial institutions to play an exemplary role and export AI technologies and management experience to small and medium-sized financial institutions. Support small and medium-sized financial institutions in strengthening collaboration to jointly drive the implementation of application scenarios. Encourage closer synergy with the AI industry, using financial applications to foster industrial innovation and development, and leveraging industrial achievements to improve the quality and efficiency of financial applications. [Box office on the first day of the 2026 Dragon Boat Festival holiday surpasses 100 million yuan, number of new releases hits a near-decade high for the same period] According to data from online platforms, as of now, the box office (including pre-sales) on the first day of the 2026 Dragon Boat Festival holiday has exceeded 100 million yuan. The film offerings during the 2026 Dragon Boat Festival are diverse and rich in genre. Over the short three-day holiday, nearly 20 films were released in concentrated fashion, setting a new high for the same period in nearly a decade. The film genres cover sci-fi, youth, animation, and more, addressing the viewing needs of audiences across almost all age groups. (CCTV News) [Guangdong: Accelerate the construction of the national integrated computing power network hub in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area and make forward-looking plans for 6G technology and satellite internet] The General Office of the People's Government of Guangdong Province issued a notice on the Implementation Plan for Promoting the Expansion and Quality Improvement of the Service Sector in Guangdong Province. It mentions that the deployment of 5G-A networks and pilot projects for 10G optical networks will be advanced in an orderly manner. 50G-PON ports will be deployed on a large scale in key scenarios such as factories and industrial parks. The upgrading and renovation of aging communication facilities will be further promoted, with FTTR whole-home optical network coverage to be achieved simultaneously in both new and older residential communities. Mobile network coverage along major transportation routes and hubs will be improved, and initiatives to increase broadband speeds and benefit the public will be implemented, driving an overall leap in broadband user download rates. The construction of the national integrated computing power network hub in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area will be accelerated, the spatial layout of data centers optimized, edge computing vigorously developed, and a “cloud-edge-device” collaborative computing power service system created. Forward-looking plans will be made for 6G technology and satellite internet, a Guangdong 6G Industry Innovation and Development Alliance will be established, and ministerial-provincial 6G collaborative pilot projects will be promoted, with a focus on creating application benchmarks for distinctive scenarios such as embodied AI, intelligent connected vehicles, the low-altitude economy, and the marine economy. [Guangdong: Support the Guangzhou Futures Exchange in enriching its futures product system and improving the full futures industry chain] The General Office of the People's Government of Guangdong Province issued a notice on the Implementation Plan for Promoting the Expansion and Quality Improvement of the Service Sector in Guangdong Province. It mentions that efforts will be made to cultivate and strengthen high-quality investment banks and investment institutions, encourage leading securities firms and fund management companies to enhance their service capabilities, compliance management capabilities, and market leadership, attract well-known domestic and international asset management institutions to establish corporate headquarters or regional headquarters in Guangdong, and encourage the development of the investment advisory business. Leverage the comprehensive service functions of the capital market, guide and support local cities in improving the databases of enterprises in the listing pipeline and M&A projects, work with stock exchanges, securities firms and other institutions to deliver thorough and detailed full-cycle advisory services for enterprises planning to go public, streamline approval processes involving the transfer of land use rights, real estate, and equity stakes in the M&A and restructuring of publicly listed firms, and encourage enterprises to expand the issuance scale of technology bonds, green bonds, and asset-backed securities. (from Wall Street CN APP) [Weifang: Expanding the 2026 Consumer Goods Trade-in Category Subsidy Campaign] The Weifang Municipal Bureau of Commerce released an announcement regarding the expansion of the 2026 consumer goods trade-in category subsidy campaign in Weifang City. It will provide subsidies in accordance with unified provincial categories and standards to individual consumers purchasing range hoods, household gas stoves (including integrated stoves), water purifiers, dishwashers, hearing aids, robot vacuum cleaners (including floor scrubbers), mobility-assisting exoskeleton robots, smart toilets, and other products. Individual consumers purchasing the above subsidized category products in Weifang City will receive a subsidy equal to 15% of the final selling price after all applicable discounts. Each person is limited to one subsidized item per category, with a maximum subsidy of 1,500 yuan per item, and the delivery address of the subsidized product must be within the administrative area of Weifang City. (Weifang Release) [INE Releases Notice on the Launch of Market Orders and Related Trading Order Sizes] According to the Shanghai International Energy Exchange (INE), market orders will be launched effective July 6, 2026 (i.e., starting from the night trading session on July 3, 2026). Market orders will apply to all listed futures and options contracts. For limit orders, the minimum order quantity is 1 lot per order; the maximum order quantity is 500 lots for futures contracts and 100 lots for options contracts. For market orders, the minimum order quantity is 1 lot per order; the maximum order quantity is 60 lots for futures contracts and 30 lots for options contracts. For settlement price trading orders, the minimum order quantity is 1 lot per order, and the maximum order quantity is 500 lots. On the US dollar front: Overnight, the US dollar index fell 0.06% to 100.76, after hitting an intraday high of 101.13 and a low of 100.69. On the weekly chart, the US dollar index rose for the week, gaining 0.97%. Market pricing indicated that bets on Fed rate hikes rose, fully pricing in a 25-basis-point rate hike in September. Data showed that foreign exchange traders, including hedge funds, were heavily buying options, betting that the dollar would strengthen further after the Fed sent hawkish signals this week and reinforced expectations of US rate hikes. According to traders, leveraged funds began buying dollar call options on Wednesday. This demand extended into Thursday as investors digested the anti-inflation rhetoric from the new Fed Chairman Warsh. Tobias Jungmann, Head of Americas FX Options at Bank of America, said, "We are seeing large-scale buying of USD call options, mainly concentrated in G-10 currencies. Given that current implied volatility is at low levels, establishing USD long positions via options looks very attractive." James Swindell, Senior FX Options Trader at Barclays in London, said, "We are seeing significant and broad-based demand for USD call options, particularly in EUR/USD and GBP/USD." (Jin10 Data APP) According to the CME "Fed Watch": The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in July is 60.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike is 39.6%. For September, the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged is 31.2%, the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike is 49.6%, and the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point hike is 19.1%. (Jin10 Data APP) In other currencies: European Central Bank Chief Economist Lane said on Thursday that eurozone inflation will remain elevated despite the recent pullback in energy prices. To address the surge in energy costs since the outbreak of the Middle East conflict in late February, the ECB raised interest rates last week for the first time in nearly three years. However, following the announcement of a peace deal between Iran and the US, oil and natural gas prices subsequently fell sharply. Lane said the ECB has no doubt about the correctness of the rate hike decision and still expects inflation to stay above the 2% target for an extended period. He said, "We think food prices will rise, as will the prices of goods and services. Even in a milder scenario where oil prices pull back, the rate hike was justified." Additionally, ECB Governing Council member Wunsch said: If we see services inflation pick up, we might consider another 25-basis-point hike as insurance. If the data is unclear, I don't think there is any need to rush. (Jin10 Data) [Bank of England keeps rate unchanged in a 7-2 vote, says it will closely monitor Middle East situation] The Bank of England kept its rate at 3.75%, saying the recent drop in oil prices is "encouraging," although two policymakers voted for an immediate 25-basis-point hike over concerns about persistent inflation. External member Megan Greene joined the camp of Huw Pill, the lone dissenter in April and chief economist, voting to raise the rate to 4% immediately, citing an unstable price outlook despite the recent ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran. (from Wall Street News APP) On the macro front: Next week, the following data will be released: China's one-year loan prime rate as of June 22, Canada's May CPI m/m, Eurozone June consumer confidence index preliminary, France's June manufacturing PMI preliminary, Germany's June manufacturing PMI preliminary, Eurozone June manufacturing PMI preliminary, UK June manufacturing PMI preliminary, UK June services PMI preliminary, UK June CBI industrial orders balance, US ADP employment change for the week ending June 6 weekly, US June S&P Global manufacturing PMI preliminary, US June S&P Global services PMI preliminary, US June Richmond Fed manufacturing index, Australia's May unadjusted CPI y/y, Germany's June IFO business climate index, Switzerland's June ZEW investor confidence index, US Q1 current account, US May new home sales annualized, Australia's May seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, Germany's July GfK consumer confidence index, US initial jobless claims for the week ending June 20, US May core PCE price index y/y, US May personal spending m/m, US Q1 real GDP annualized q/q final, US Q1 real personal consumption expenditures q/q preliminary, US Q1 real personal consumption expenditures q/q final, US Q1 core PCE price index annualized q/q final, US May core PCE price index m/m, US May durable goods orders m/m, US June final University of Michigan consumer sentiment, US June final 1-year inflation expectations, and other data. Also next week, attention should be paid to: ECB President Christine Lagarde addressing the EU Parliament; Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem delivering remarks; the 17th Summer Davos Forum held in Dalian from June 23 to 25; the Bank of Japan releasing a summary of opinions from its June monetary policy meeting board members; Nvidia holding its annual general meeting; the Bank of Canada releasing its monetary policy meeting minutes; the US Fed releasing its annual bank stress test results; Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Kazuo attending a central bank lecture event hosted by the International Monetary Fund (IMF); today saw the maturity of 300 billion yuan of one-year medium-term lending facilities (MLF) and 248 billion yuan of seven-day reverse repos; FOMC permanent voting member and New York Fed President John Williams speaking; 2027 FOMC voting member and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee speaking; and 2026 FOMC voting member and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari speaking. Crude oil: Overnight, both oil futures gained: WTI crude rose 0.91%, while Brent crude rose 0.47%. On a weekly basis, WTI crude futures posted a second straight weekly decline, falling 9.83% for the week; Brent crude futures also fell for a second consecutive week, down 8.53%. International crude oil futures opened lower on Friday, struggled to rebound intraday, and turned lower several times. They hit a fresh daily low after reports of a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, but as reports emerged that both sides continued to exchange fire after the ceasefire, they turned positive again late in the European session. Brent crude struggled around the $80 mark throughout the day. (Wall Street CN) Iran's Foreign Ministry stated that negotiations on a permanent agreement with the US will only begin after a permanent end to the war in Lebanon, the full lifting of the US blockade, US issuance of waivers for Iranian oil, and the release of Iran's frozen assets. (Jin10 Data APP) Iran is shipping a large amount of oil that was previously stranded due to the US blockade, potentially a positive development for Tehran after it signed a tentative peace deal with Washington on Wednesday. Shipping data compiled by Bloomberg showed that 11 tankers carrying a total of 20 million barrels of crude oil departed from Iran's Chabahar port on the Gulf of Oman this week. Previously, the US military had prevented these tankers from entering the Indian Ocean, a move aimed at restricting Tehran's access to petrodollars. (Jin10 Data APP) Separately, data from the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) showed that during the week ended June 16, speculative net long positions in Brent crude futures fell by 94,763 contracts to 114,128 contracts. (Jin10 Data APP) In addition, due to contract rollover, the NYMEX July crude oil futures will see their final floor trading at 2:30 AM on June 23 and final electronic trading at 5:00 AM that day. Please pay attention to the exchange's expiration and rollover notices to manage risk. In addition, the expiration dates of US oil contracts on some trading platforms are usually one day earlier than the official NYMEX expiration. Please pay extra attention.

Recently, the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association released the evaluation results of high-quality projects in the nonferrous metals industry for 2025. Four projects invested and constructed by Chinalco Group were awarded the title of High-Quality Project in the Nonferrous Metals Industry for 2025, including two projects from Chinalco Limited: the Guangxi Branch Alumina Phase I and II Pipeline Leaching Upgrade Project and the Chinalco Shandong 2023 No. 1 Project. The award-winning projects feature advanced design and excellent construction quality, and are all exemplary projects completed in the nonferrous metals industry in the past two years. The Guangxi Branch Alumina Phase I and II Pipeline Leaching Upgrade Project is a core technological upgrade project for implementing the "dual-carbon" strategy, promoting the iterative upgrading of production processes, and achieving a green, low-carbon, and efficient transformation of production. After its commissioning, the bauxite leaching rate and raw material comprehensive utilization rate have significantly improved, production energy consumption has been greatly reduced, and the stability of the production line operation and the level of intelligent control have been comprehensively improved, achieving multiple goals of quality improvement, efficiency enhancement, and cost reduction.

This week, ferrous metals edged higher before extending their pullback, with coking coal posting the largest decline. At the beginning of the week, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and other departments issued a notice on launching a three-year campaign for energy conservation and carbon reduction in key industries, and news that the U.S. and Iran were to sign a memorandum of understanding on the 19th improved market sentiment, lifting all ferrous metals. In the latter half of the week, expectations for an eighth round of coke price hikes materialized in the futures market. However, as steel mill profits narrowed further and spot coke had largely priced in the eighth increase, further upside room was limited. Combined with emerging expectations of peak hot metal output, futures began to correct and cost support weakened. Meanwhile, May macro data came in below expectations, dragging the entire ferrous metals complex lower...

Guangdong is a core cluster for China's wire and cable industry, with complete upstream and downstream support, prominent regional advantages, and market reach covering South China, Hong Kong, Macau, and Southeast Asia. The industry is now undergoing transformation. Overseas infrastructure and new energy markets are favorable for enterprises going global, but fluctuations in copper and aluminum raw material prices, capacity homogenization, and market involution continue to squeeze profits. Intelligent and digital transformation has become an urgent necessity for breaking through the industry deadlock. will be held on July 14-15, 2026 at Wyndham Hotel, Guangzhou Design Capital, Guangdong . SMM , together with Baotou Zhenxiong Copper Co., Ltd. , invites you to attend. The conference will leverage data from the entire industry chain and resources in and outside China, focusing on market assessment, transformation and upgrading, supply-demand matching, and empowering go-global strategies, helping local enterprises improve quality and expand markets, and promoting high-quality international development of the regional wire and cable industry. Click , and we look forward to meeting you at the conference. Shanghai Cun'an Industrial Co., Ltd. is located in the Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Trading Center, specializing in commodity trading and supply chain services mainly for nonferrous metals. It is one of the earliest enterprises in China to practice the integration of futures and spot. Starting as a startup, it has grown into an industry benchmark with annual sales exceeding 100 billion yuan and serving over 2,000 manufacturing enterprises, forging a high-quality development path with its own characteristics, and is recognized by the Shanghai municipal government as a top-tier player. Corporate Competitiveness Research-driven and Continuous Innovation The company's market share of copper cathode/aluminum trading volume has consistently held a leading position in the industry. In 2025, annual sales of copper cathode reached 2.3 million mt, and including other products (copper rod, aluminum rod, aluminum ingot, zinc ingot, nickel, silver, tin, lead, lithium carbonate, etc.), total sales reached 4 million mt. Having deeply cultivated the industry for 30 years, the company is annually recognized by professional industry platforms such as "SMM" as a "price submitter," "quality supplier," and other honors. Professional Team, Flexible Models When Shanghai Cun'an was first established, its core team had already experienced multiple market cycles in the commodity sector. Facing industry changes brought by the internet, the company made two important strategic decisions: first, to stick to its core business in nonferrous metals and extend deeply into supply chain services; second, to respond to the Belt and Road Initiative and steadily expand into the African market. Currently, the company has nearly 30 projects underway in Africa, with over 3,000 Chinese and foreign employees, building momentum for international market expansion. Solid Channels, Service First Guided by the national plan to accelerate the development of new-type international trade, the company has established subsidiaries in the Lin-gang Special Area of Shanghai, Singapore, and Hong Kong, actively deploying cross-border finance and trade businesses. Aligning with the Belt and Road Initiative, the company has invested in Africa, where its industries now span various sectors across the continent, including manufacturing of production entities, agriculture, warehousing and logistics, ore and recycled metals, among others. Corporate Vision The vigorous development of the bulk commodity industry is both the aspiration and mission of Cun’an. Cun’an is willing to join hands with its peers, working together to build a more honest, standardized, and efficient non-ferrous metal trade circle, jointly promoting the effective allocation of commodity resources in the real economy environment, and striving to enhance the competitiveness and industry discourse power of China’s non-ferrous metal industry. Contact Information Business Director: Xiong Li 138 1660 9892 Business Manager: Xiong Xicheng 130 4415 6111 SMM Conference Contact Chen Bo 183 7089 1981 chenbo@smm.cn

[Supply-Demand Pattern Steady, Grain-Oriented Silicon Steel Prices to Stay Stable Next Week] This week, spot prices for cold-rolled grain-oriented silicon steel remained mostly stable, with market trading unfolding at a steady and orderly pace. Ferrous metals futures retreated after a rapid rise this week, posting limited changes that provided weak sentiment support for the silicon steel spot market, and overall market price fluctuations narrowed. Although earlier steel mill price hike policies were implemented, releasing positive signals, the market was still in a phase of digesting these policies. Spot prices did not post significant changes, mainstream quotations remained steady, the price spread between high- and low-priced resources in the market gradually narrowed, and overall quotations became more aligned.

The following table shows the ferrous and nonferrous metals movement on the SHFE and DCE on 18 Jun , 2026

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] Macro Headwinds Drove SS Futures to Swing Wildly, Spot Stainless Steel Transactions Weakened but Prices Remained Firm According to SMM on June 18, SS futures were in the doldrums. Despite a pullback, the decline was limited, and the contract moved sideways during the day. As of market close, the most-traded SS futures contract settled at 15,150 yuan/mt. In the spot market, influenced by the sideways movement of futures and the approaching Dragon Boat Festival holiday, trading activity was mediocre under the combined effect of cautious wait-and-see sentiment and the holiday mood. Quotations remained firm, supported by steel mill guidance prices. SS futures, the most-traded contract: At 10:15 AM, SS2607 was reported at 15,060 yuan/mt, down 150 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in the Wuxi area were in the 160-560 yuan/mt range. In the spot market, the average price for cold-rolled 201/2B coil in Wuxi was flat. For cold-rolled 304/2B coil with raw edges, the average price in Wuxi was flat, and the average price in Foshan was flat. The price of cold-rolled 316L/2B coil in the Wuxi area was flat. For hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coil, the quotation in Wuxi increased by 70 yuan/mt. Cold-rolled 430/2B coil prices in both Wuxi and Foshan held steady. This week, stainless steel futures and spot cargo experienced wild swings. Outside China, fluctuating macro expectations repeatedly disturbed the futures market, intensifying the tug-of-war between longs and shorts. The overall pattern was one of macro factors dominating futures trends, transactions fluctuating with sentiment, tightening supply supporting spot cargo, stable inventory, and slightly recovering margins. At the start of the week, macro tailwinds lifted market sentiment, and a futures rebound drove a recovery in spot transactions. Mid-week, hawkish expectations for the US Fed intensified, futures weakened again, and end-user …

This week, the MHP market was tight overall, with nickel and cobalt coefficients fluctuating at highs. On the supply side, sulfur supply shortages caused some producers to cut production, MHP supply declined, and transaction coefficients edged up slightly. On the demand side, downstream nickel salt prices weakened, the risk of losses persisted, and nickel salt smelters were relatively less accepting of high-priced MHP. However, with some recovery in downstream ternary demand, some producers had rigid purchase needs, supporting the strength of MHP nickel coefficients. Driven by tight supply-demand expectations, the market is expected to hold up well in the short term. The high-grade nickel matte market was also in a pattern of weak supply and demand. Currently, high-grade nickel matte has a clear economic advantage over MHP. However, on the supply side, mainstream suppliers have completed long-term order signing, leaving limited available spot supply. On the demand side, actual consumption capacity was insufficient due to limitations in downstream production line compatibility. Overall, purchase sentiment was weak, trading activity was low, and coefficients remained stable. The international sulfur market saw a shift in supply landscape, with geopolitical premiums gradually being cleared. The US and Iran signed and enacted a ceasefire memorandum on June 17, the Strait of Hormuz is expected to be gradually unblocked, the US has started lifting the sea blockade, and Iran will complete mine clearance within 30 days. However, many shipping enterprises have temporarily suspended the resumption of routes, making navigation recovery a gradual process. Coupled with Turkey's export ban extended to end-September and Russia's ban extended to June 30, short-term supply disruptions persist. As the strait unblocking progresses, sulfur prices are expected to gradually come under pressure and swing wildly at highs in the short term. Going forward, attention should be paid to mine clearance progress, the pace of shipping recovery, and the direction of the final agreement within 60 days. On the nickel price front, as the US-Iran reconciliation gradually progressed this week, market rate hike expectations faded, and non-ferrous metals generally rebounded. Against the backdrop of stable MHP payables and high-grade nickel matte coefficients, the absolute prices of MHP and high-grade nickel matte rebounded as nickel prices rose. Additionally, MHP cobalt prices and refined cobalt prices also rebounded. Overall, the intermediate product market is expected to hold up well in the short term. Cost side, the MHP raw material market remained tight. Under the combined influence of production cuts of intermediates caused by sulfur shortage and just-in-time procurement of ternary materials downstream, MHP payables fluctuated at highs this week. Nickel prices, the US-Iran situation released signals of reconciliation, market rate-hike expectations subsided somewhat, and the previously oversold nickel prices rebounded this week. Overall for the week, nickel prices rebounded, MHP payables held steady, and the spot cost of nickel salt production rose slightly WoW.

[SMM Aluminum Weekly Review: Geopolitical Premium Recedes, Coupled with Hawkish US Fed, Aluminum Prices Fall Under Pressure Both at Home and Abroad]

SMM, June 18: Metals markets: As of midday close, base metals on the domestic market were nearly all down. SHFE copper fell 0.66%, SHFE aluminum fell 0.13%. SHFE lead fell 0.27%. SHFE zinc rose 0.14%. SHFE tin fell 2.46%. SHFE nickel fell 0.38%. In addition, the most-traded cast aluminum futures edged lower, the most-traded alumina futures fell 0.28%. The most-traded lithium carbonate futures fell 4.88%. The most-traded silicon metal futures fell 0.98%. The most-traded polysilicon futures fell 0.24%. Ferrous metals all fell. Iron ore fell 1.26%, rebar fell 1.04%, HRC fell 0.89%, and stainless steel fell 0.66%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal futures contract fell 6.26%, and the most-traded coke futures contract fell 4.21%. On the overseas base metals front, as of 11:45, LME metals fell across the board. LME copper fell 1.06%, LME aluminum and LME lead fell nearly 1%. LME zinc fell 1.12%, LME tin fell 2.7%. LME nickel fell 1.08%. Precious metals: as of 11:45, COMEX gold fell 0.94%, and COMEX silver fell 2.17%. Domestic precious metals: the most-traded SHFE gold futures fell 0.36%, and the most-traded SHFE silver futures fell 1.85%. In addition, as of midday close, the most-traded platinum futures fell 2.63%, and the most-traded palladium futures fell 1.88%. As of the midday close, the most-traded container shipping freight futures (European route) rose 1.13% to 3,742.5 points. As of June 18, 11:45, selected futures midday quotes: Spot and fundamentals Zinc: The mainstream brand 0# zinc traded around 24,680-24,790 yuan/mt in the Ningbo market. Ningbo regular brands were quoted at a discount of 20 yuan/mt against the 2607 contract, and at a premium of 30 yuan/mt against Shanghai spot cargoes. The mainstream in Ningbo was quoted against the 2607 contract... Macro front Domestic side: [Five Departments: Launch of 2026 NEV Promotion Campaign in Rural Areas] The General Offices (Comprehensive Departments) of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Commerce and three other departments are launching the 2026 NEV promotion campaign in rural areas, deepening the auto trade-in program in villages. Within the NEV rural promotion campaign, a trade-in special section will be set up to publicize and promote subsidy policies, and provide "one-stop" services such as old vehicle inspection, evaluation and recycling, and assistance with subsidy applications, to further increase policy awareness and coverage and facilitate rural consumers' participation and access to subsidies. Rural consumers who trade in old cars for NEVs can apply for auto trade-in subsidies according to policy requirements, without any limit on the number of subsidy qualifications. [NDRC: to Strengthen Coordinated Planning of Computing Power Network, New-Type Power Grid, and New-Generation Communication Network During 15th Five-Year Plan Period] Li Chao, Deputy Director of the Policy Research Office and Spokesperson of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), said at a press conference that during the 15th Five-Year Plan period, greater emphasis will be placed on supply-demand matching and coordinated planning and construction of the computing power network, new-type power grid, and new-generation communication network. On the "hard investment" front, more effective computing-electricity synergy models will be explored to strengthen computing with electricity and promote electricity with computing; computing-network integration innovation will be enhanced, and direct connection lines between national hubs will be appropriately expanded to further reduce network transmission latency. On the "soft development" front, the monitoring and market-based scheduling of computing resources will be strengthened, and the construction of a nationwide integrated computing power network that is interconnected, universally accessible and easy to use, green, and secure will be accelerated. (from Wallstreetcn APP) [Shanghai Clearing House and CFETS to Launch Optimized Foreign Currency Repo Service from June 22] The Interbank Market Clearing House Co., Ltd. (Shanghai Clearing House) and the China Foreign Exchange Trade System (CFETS) issued a notice stating that to further optimize foreign currency repo trading and clearing services and meet market participants' needs for collateral management and diversified settlement methods, Shanghai Clearing House and CFETS will launch an optimized foreign currency repo service on June 22, 2026. During the term of a foreign currency pledged repo transaction, both parties may initiate substitution of pledged bonds for trades not yet due for settlement through the Shanghai Clearing House integrated business system or the CFETS foreign exchange trading system, subject to counterparty confirmation. Prior to the settlement date, both parties may initiate cash settlement through the Shanghai Clearing House integrated business system, and Shanghai Clearing House will complete the buyout repo maturity settlement based on the cash settlement instruction. The specific launch arrangements by CFETS will be announced separately. (from Wallstreetcn APP) [PBOC Reverse Repos Net Inject 59.5 Billion Yuan Today] The PBOC conducted 248 billion yuan seven-day reverse repo operations in the open market at an interest rate of 1.40%, unchanged from the previous day. Today, 188.5 billion yuan of reverse repos matured. US dollar: As of 11:45, the US dollar index fell 0.15% to 100.24. US Fed officials hinted on Wednesday that they may need to raise interest rates soon rather than cut them, a sharp shift in thinking amid rapidly climbing inflation. Evercore ISI analyst Krishna Guha stated that the pullback in energy prices may offer some relief in the coming months. However, he cautioned that the interest rate outlook has already decoupled from oil prices, which indicates deeper uncertainty over whether underlying inflation will cool enough to spare the US Fed from having to hike rates eventually. Beyond energy, Guha noted, two pressures remain: the ongoing pass-through from tariffs and cost spillovers from the investment boom in AI infrastructure. Claudia Sahm, chief economist at New Century Advisors and former Fed economist, said conditions that would normally prompt the Fed to respond to supply-driven inflation—namely an overheated labour market or unanchored inflation expectations—have yet to be seen. But she acknowledged that the case for action is building. “I can understand the view that the Fed should be ready to step in and hike if things worsen,” she said, adding that the Fed could move more swiftly than during the pandemic-era inflation surge because “they are already having that debate now.” According to CME FedWatch, the probability of the US Fed holding rates steady through July stands at 64.0% (versus 91.0% before the decision), with a 35.1% chance of a cumulative 25bp hike (versus 8.9%) and a 1% chance of a cumulative 50bp hike (versus 0%). For the year-end, the probability of unchanged rates is 14.2% (versus 38.2%), while the odds of cumulative hikes stand at 25bp (36.4%, versus 43.0%), 50bp (33.8%, versus 16.2%), 75bp (13.5%, versus 2.4%), and 100bp (2.1%, versus 0.1%). Citi expects the Fed to deliver 25bp rate cuts in October 2026, December 2026, and January 2027, shifting from its previous forecast of cuts in September, October, and December this year. Goldman Sachs Vice Chairman and former Dallas Fed President Kaplan said the Fed may need to raise rates as early as September if inflation remains persistently elevated. “If the inflation data do not cool between now and September, it would be wise for the Fed to act in September or in the autumn. That would be the more prudent course,” Kaplan said. Markets turned hawkish after Fed Chairman Walsh signalled that the central bank remains focused on fighting inflation. Traders dumped short-term Treasuries, pushing some yields higher. Walsh’s remarks were reinforced by the personal projections of Fed members, half of whom pencilled in rate hikes by the end of 2026. Kaplan stated that if inflation remains stubborn, it indicates that monetary policy is still too loose. He also pointed out, “Fed policy actions are rarely one-offs; rate hikes often come in series of two or three. So I think if you’re going to act in September, you need to be prepared. There may be one or two more.” (Jin10 Data APP) Data Releases: Today will see the release of US initial jobless claims for the week ending June 13, the US June Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, the US May Conference Board leading index month-on-month change, Switzerland’s May trade balance, the Swiss National Bank policy rate as of June 18, the UK ILO unemployment rate for the three months to April, the UK May unemployment rate, the UK May claimant count change, the UK Bank of England rate decision as of June 18, and the eurozone April seasonally adjusted current account, among other data. Additionally, attention should be paid to: China’s refined oil products will open a new round of price adjustment window. The Fed’s FOMC will release its interest rate decision and summary of economic projections, Fed Chairman Warsh will hold a monetary policy press conference, the Swiss National Bank will announce its rate decision, and the Bank of England will release its rate decision and meeting minutes. It is worth noting that on June 18, China’s SGE, SHFE, ZCE, and DCE will have no night session trading due to the eve of the Dragon Boat Festival. On June 19, the NYSE will be closed for Juneteenth. CME Group’s precious metals, energy, forex, equity indexes, and US Treasury futures contracts trading will close early at 01:00 Beijing time on June 20 for the Juneteenth holiday, while ICE’s Brent crude oil futures contract trading will close early at 01:30 Beijing time on June 20 for the Juneteenth holiday. Crude Oil: As of 11:45, oil prices in both markets fell, with WTI down 1.82% and Brent down 1.48%. Trump signed a memorandum of understanding with Iran at the Palace of Versailles in France on Wednesday, declaring an end to the war and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. A US official stated that the agreement had officially taken effect, but it remained unclear whether Iran had immediately taken steps to fully reopen the strait. "Trump's signing of the MOU after the G7 meeting is another important step in the process of reopening the Strait of Hormuz," said Rajeev De Mello, Global Macro Portfolio Manager at Gama Asset Management, "This will further compress energy risk premiums, ease inflation concerns, and provide support for bond and equity markets after the Fed's initial reaction." (Wall Street CN) An Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson stated: Iran must be able to sell its oil smoothly, with no obstacles in transportation and insurance, and must receive the proceeds from oil sales. Jinshi Data APP) According to the latest data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), U.S. EIA crude oil inventories fell by 8.26 million barrels last week, compared with estimates of a 5.2 million barrel decline by Bloomberg users and a 3.6918 million barrel draw by analysts, following a 7.227 million barrel drop the prior week. Inventories at the Cushing hub in Oklahoma have declined for eight consecutive weeks to around 20 million barrels, a level that most traders consider the operational minimum. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve also fell this week to about 340 million barrels, the lowest since 1983. (Wallstreetcn) Spot market overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►