SMM Weekly Stainless Steel Futures Review — week of June 29 – July 3, 2026. Weak nickel and a softening off-season demand backdrop offset firm mill pricing and low inventories, steadying the benchmark contract near RMB 14,655/mt

[SMM Analysis] Stainless Steel Costs and Prices Pull Back in Tandem, Steel Mill Profits Remain Basically Stable This week, stainless steel prices and production costs fell together, and steel mill profit margins remained basically stable. Based on 304 cold-rolled as the benchmark, the profit margin calculated with current raw materials was 2.07%, while that using inventory raw materials was 1.33%. Nickel-based raw material cost side, high-grade NPI prices showed a pullback trend this week. During the week, SHFE nickel and SS futures were in the doldrums overall. Although there were widespread expectations of tight supply for high-grade NPI and upstream smelters and traders maintained firm offers, stainless steel mills' production schedule expectations pulled back, leading to weaker demand, and coupled with the simultaneous decline in stainless steel prices, the industry's acceptance of high-priced supply was very limited, and market transactions remained sluggish. As of this Friday, high-grade NPI with mainstream grade of 10%-12% fell by 8 yuan per nickel unit, closing at 1,133 yuan per nickel unit. Stainless steel scrap market, stainless steel scrap prices pulled back slightly this week. The weak futures market transmitted downward to spot cargo, and combined with sluggish off-season demand and reduced steel mill production schedules, rigid demand weakened further. Although steel scrap had an economic advantage over NPI, providing floor support for prices, uncertainty over Indonesian policies kept the market in a wait-and-see stance. Under the weight of bearish fundamentals, short-term stainless steel scrap prices are expected to continue to be in the doldrums. As of this Friday, the mainstream 304 off-cuts price in the Shanghai region fell by 100 yuan/mt, with the latest quotation at approximately 10,400 yuan/mt. Chromium-based raw material cost side, high-carbon ferrochrome prices continued to edge down this week. High-carbon ferrochrome production remained high...

As of the latest data, the FOB price of Indonesian MHP nickel is $15,017/mt Ni, and the FOB price of Indonesian MHP cobalt is $50,496/mt Co. The MHP payables (against the SMM battery-grade nickel sulphate index) are 80-81, and the MHP cobalt payable indicator (against SMM refined cobalt, Rotterdam warehouse) is 95. The FOB price of Indonesian high-grade nickel matte is $15,143/mt Ni.

On July 3, the SMM battery-grade nickel sulphate average price edged lower.

As of now, the FOB price of Indonesian MHP nickel is $15,127/mt Ni, and the FOB price of Indonesian MHP cobalt is $50,716/mt Co. MHP payables (against SMM battery-grade nickel sulphate index) are 80.5-81.5, and MHP cobalt payables (against SMM refined cobalt (Rotterdam warehouse)) is 95. The FOB price of Indonesian high-grade nickel matte is $15,254/mt Ni.

On July 2, the SMM battery-grade nickel sulphate average price declined.

News Release, June 30, 2026: According to SMM statistics, China's high-carbon ferrochrome output in June 2026 rose 4.06% month-on-month and 29.96% year-on-year . Domestic ferrochrome output stayed elevated throughout the month, with production growth recorded in both northern and southern regions. In Inner Mongolia in the north, power supply constraints exerted limited impact. The June tender price for ferrochrome from steel mills stood at RMB 8,495 per 50-base-tonne. Meanwhile, chrome ore prices trended down moderately, lowering production costs for ferrochrome producers who maintained decent margins and mostly operated at normal run rates. In addition, newly launched capacity at several smelters further lifted regional output. Statistics show Inner Mongolia’s high-carbon ferrochrome output climbed 3.83% month-on-month in June, accounting for 77.82% of the national total. The southern regions officially entered the wet season, with power tariffs falling notably in Sichuan, Yunnan and other provinces, prompting successive restarts and production resumptions. Combined high-carbon ferrochrome output across southern provinces including Sichuan, Guizhou, Guangxi and Hunan rose 10% month-on-month in June, representing 11.59% of national volume. Ferrochrome output is expected to stay at high levels with little room for sharp further gains. For one thing, major stainless steel mills including Tsingshan and TIS cut their July high-carbon ferrochrome tender prices by RMB 200 per 50-base-tonne month-on-month, matching the market’s earlier bearish sentiment. The sector is in the traditional off-season for consumption, with news of production cuts emerging among downstream stainless steel manufacturers. Market participants hold subdued confidence over the outlook, keeping ferrochrome prices under persistent downward pressure. Meanwhile, the decline in chrome ore prices has slowed, leaving limited room for further cost reductions and squeezing profit margins of ferrochrome producers, which dampens production willingness. For another, southern smelters have mostly ramped up output to full capacity amid the wet season, leaving little upside for additional production growth. Besides, nearly all newly added domestic capacity has been commissioned. Therefore, ferrochrome output is projected to remain steady at current high levels in the near term.

On June 30, the SMM battery-grade nickel sulphate average price edged lower.

As of now, the Indonesian MHP nickel FOB price is $15,627/mt Ni, and the Indonesian MHP cobalt FOB price is $51,505/mt Co. The MHP payables (against the SMM battery-grade nickel sulphate index) is 81.5-82.5, and the MHP cobalt element payable indicator (against SMM refined cobalt, Rotterdam warehouse) is 97. The Indonesian high-grade nickel matte FOB price is $15,712/mt Ni.

On June 29, the SMM battery-grade nickel sulphate average price dipped slightly.