【Current Operating Status and Future Outlook of China's Crude Zinc Market Under Dual Supply-Demand Pressure】Since 2026, the domestic crude zinc market has exhibited operating characteristics of concurrent supply-side contraction and demand-side structural divergence. Affected by the combined impact of tightening raw material supply ......

SMM Weekly Stainless Steel Futures Review — week of August 10–14, 2026. Chinese stainless steel futures fell for a fourth straight week, settling at RMB 14,245/mt (about $2,114/mt) on August 14.

Data released Friday by South Korea's Ministry of Science and ICT showed that, driven by sustained global investment in AI, the country's July exports of information and communication technology (ICT) products surged 140.6% YoY. July ICT export value reached $53.4 billion, up from $22.2 billion a year earlier. The ministry said this was the highest July figure on record. South Korea's July ICT imports rose 37.3% YoY to $18.3 billion, resulting in a trade surplus of $35.1 billion. By product, driven by strong demand for AI-related chips, semiconductor exports soared 178.8% YoY to $41 billion, extending their growth streak to 17 consecutive months. Exports of computers and communications equipment soared 353.9% YoY to $4.9 billion, and mobile phone exports rose 62.6% YoY to $1.6 billion. By destination, combined exports to China and Hong Kong surged 194.7% YoY. Exports to the US jumped 187% YoY, exports to Vietnam rose 115.7% YoY, exports to the EU grew 202% YoY, and exports to India increased 128.2% YoY.

According to SMM data, the antimony market showed a stable-then-rise trend this week, with the price center continuing to move higher. The average price of #1 antimony ingot stabilized at 92,000 yuan/mt from Monday to Wednesday (Aug 10-12), was raised by 1,500 yuan/mt to 93,500 yuan/mt on Thursday (Aug 13), and remained unchanged on Friday. 99.8% antimony trioxide (domestic) largely moved in tandem, with its average price stabilizing at 82,000 yuan/mt from Monday to Wednesday, edging up by 500 yuan/mt to 82,500 yuan/mt on Thursday (Aug 13), and unchanged on Friday. The increase in antimony trioxide was noticeably smaller than that in antimony ingot, reflecting that downstream demand from flame retardants and other end uses improved but remained mild. In terms of pace, prices in the antimony products market mainly climbed steadily during this week's trading days; smelters generally held prices firm and held back from selling under loss-making pressure, and the market showed clear directional momentum. The mid-week rise was mainly driven by warming expectations of continued buyer stockpiling, but market participants widely reported that downstream rigid-demand restocking slowed noticeably and speculative interest also cooled, with overall market sentiment shifting to mildly bullish. Date #1 Antimony Ingot Lowest Price #1 Antimony Ingot Highest Price #1 Antimony Ingot Average Price Antimony Trioxide Lowest Price Antimony Trioxide Highest Price Antimony Trioxide Average Price Change 2026-08-10 (Mon) 91,000 93,000 92,000 81,000 83,000 82,000 Antimony +2,000 / oxide +1,000 2026-08-11 (Tue) 91,000 93,000 92,000 81,000 83,000 82,000 Unchanged 2026-08-12 (Wed) 91,000 93,000 92,000 81,000 83,000 82,000 Unchanged 2026-08-13 (Thu) 92,000 95,000 93,500 81,500 83,500 82,500 Antimony +1,500 / oxide +500 2026-08-14 (Fri) 92,000 95,000 93,500 81,500 83,500 82,500 Unchanged Weekly Average 90,500 92,900 91,700 78,750 81,400 80,075 Weekly +1.6% / +0.6% According to SMM estimates, China's antimony ingot production in July 2026, including antimony ingot, converted crude antimony, and antimony cathode, jumped about 30% MoM, showing a sharp increase. Customs data show that antimony ore imports from outside China in April, May, and June all exceeded 10,000 mt, and large ore imports inevitably translated into higher antimony ingot production. In H1 2026, cumulative antimony ore imports reached 59,347.5 mt in physical content, already exceeding total imports for full-year 2025. June antimony ores and concentrates imports were 10,688.6 mt, down 2.7% MoM from 10,980.1 mt in May, but still above the 10,000 mt mark. However, the previously market-worried "Spain variable" source is not sustainable. Combined with limited domestic mining output growth, the tight raw material pattern remained unchanged. Notably, a planned #1 antimony ingot smelting project with annual capacity of 10,000 mt in Xiaoerkule, Xinjiang may affect the future supply landscape. From a cost perspective, mining costs of some large producers' self-owned antimony ore plus smelting processing fees are now relatively close to spot prices, and smelters' willingness to hold prices firm and hold back from selling is highly consistent, which is also the core reason prices could sustain their uptrend this week. June antimony trioxide export volume was 474.3 mt, up 145.6% MoM from about 193 mt in May, with Russia as the top destination. Export channels showed a diversification trend, but total volumes remained low. Over the same period, unwrought antimony exports were zero, indicating antimony ingot exports were still restricted. The import structure shifted markedly, with Spain's share rising; export channels became more diversified, but total volumes remained low. Looking at Thai trade data, Thailand's antimony ingot imports in June were 1,405 mt, up 173.1% MoM and a half-year peak, sourced mainly from Vietnam, Myanmar, and Hong Kong; exports were 689 mt, up 132.1% MoM, mainly destined for Belgium, South Korea, and Japan. Thailand's industry chain pattern of processing antimony ingots into value-added exports to developed economies is clear, with export unit prices generally above import costs and a notable processing value-added effect. Data Indicator Latest Month Previous Month MoM Change Antimony ores imports (mt) 10,688.6 (Jun) 10,980.1 (May) -2.7% H1 cumulative antimony ore imports (mt in physical content) 59,347.5 - Exceeds full-year 2025 Antimony trioxide exports (mt) 474.3 (Jun) 193.2 (May) +145.6% Unwrought antimony exports 0 (Jun) 0 (May) Remained zero Antimony ingot production Jul +30% MoM Jun +30% Export controls continue. Since July 1, export controls on strategic minerals have been upgraded to "whole-supply-chain networked supervision"; compliant export channels have narrowed, which will further tighten domestic available supply. Although antimony trioxide exports rose sharply MoM, total volumes remained low compared with normal monthly exports of several thousand mt, and the industry chain's export willingness improved but the overall stance remained cautious. On end-use demand, as the traditional off-season draws to a close, operating rates across downstream sectors are expected to rebound steadily; for example, operating rates in the flame retardant and alloy sectors are expected to increase with the arrival of the September-October peak season. After earlier capacity contraction, the PV glass industry also has production resumption expectations, but demand for sodium pyroantimonate still needs to be observed and verified. Bromine prices rose to 36,500 yuan/mt on tightening supply and consolidated at highs, providing cost support for antimony prices. However, after restocking for rigid demand in the previous period, end-users now hold some raw material inventory and are not highly motivated to continue restocking in the near term. From this week's antimony trioxide transactions, downstream acceptance of high-priced antimony trioxide supply remained cautious, and there was some resistance in passing this through to the upstream smelting segment. This was also an important reason why this week's antimony price rise was measured and lacked momentum for a one-sided sharp rally. For example, sodium pyroantimonate production in July fell 20% MoM, and two consecutive months of decline showed that the peak demand season had not arrived. From this week's trend, the pace of price increases reflected the market's core contradiction: a game between smelters' willingness to hold prices firm and downstream acceptance of high prices. Looking ahead to next week, the core logic supporting antimony prices remains solid: smelters generally face loss-making pressure from inverted prices of externally purchased raw materials and finished products, and their willingness to hold prices firm and hold back from selling is highly consistent; meanwhile, the approaching September-October peak season is further strengthening downstream expectations of future restocking. Next week, antimony prices are expected to hold up well. Given that current gains are relatively mild and upward momentum still needs to accumulate, the probability of a sustained one-sided sharp rally is low. Attention should be paid to downstream actual acceptance of cargoes after price increases. In the medium and long term, over the next month, the antimony market is expected to continue its firm pattern as peak-season demand materializes. Late Q3 to early Q4 is the traditional peak consumption season for antimony products; the flame retardant industry entering its production peak will boost consumption of antimony trioxide and antimony ingot, and the PV glass industry has production resumption expectations. On the supply side, China's antimony ore is constrained by resources and can hardly see significant volume growth; export controls continue to deepen, and the price center is expected to rise gradually. Key Points to Watch: - Downstream actual acceptance of antimony ingot prices after increases and the sustainability of transaction volume expansion - Changes in Antimony Oxide Capacity Outside China and China's Export Recovery Progress - Actual Verification of "September-October Peak Season" Demand - Subsequent Changes in Antimony Ore Imports - Progress on the 10,000 mt Antimony Ingot Smelting Project in Xiaoerkule, Xinjiang - Bromine Price Trend and Cost Support - Enforcement of Strategic Mineral Export Control Policies

On its Q1 FY27 earnings call on August 4, India's Jindal Stainless (JSL) said reduced EU import quotas, not CBAM, are what will make its Europe volumes look smaller, adding it is confident of filling its quota allocation. On CBAM readiness, JSL said it has internationally accredited verifiers in place and is waiting on the EU to appoint verifiers, noting its scrap-based route — scrap feed is about 85-90% at Hisar and 70-75% at Jajpur, over 90% sourced from India and Southeast Asia. Exports are roughly 10-11% of volume, with Europe 30-40% and Europe plus the US around 60%; JSL is diversifying into Japan, South Korea and Brazil. India's anti-dumping public hearing is set for September 9, while the QCO suspension is expected to run to March 2027.

On its Q1 FY27 earnings call on August 4, India's Jindal Stainless (JSL) said its Indonesian RKEF nickel pig iron business remained EBITDA-positive for a second consecutive quarter, though management stressed the business is inherently volatile given nickel price swings and that its primary purpose is securing raw material availability rather than earnings. The comment came in response to an analyst question on Indonesia's revised nickel ore benchmark pricing and its margin impact. MD Abhyuday Jindal called peer moves into Indonesia a welcome development, citing SAIL's MoU with an Indonesian state entity for its Salem plant and POSCO's similar investment, arguing they validate JSL's own move years earlier given Indonesia's repeated signals on restricting nickel ore and NPI exports.

July Price Review ： Domestic grain-oriented silicon steel prices rose first and then retreated in July. Supported by rigid demand from downstream transformer manufacturers as well as orders in the new energy and UHV sectors from early to mid-July, mainstream grades including B23R085 climbed to cyclical highs. Nevertheless, persistently high prices suppressed downstream purchasing willingness, market trading turned sluggish, and spot prices came under pressure and fell at month-end, ending the upward rally. In view of forward expectations, the market generally holds the view that this round of price surge has come to an end. Fundamental Analysis Domestic steel mills plan to maintain roughly the same output of grain-oriented silicon steel in August as in July, sustaining high production levels with no obvious tightening in supply delivery pace. In terms of product mix, production is still overwhelmingly dominated by high magnetic induction (HIB) grain-oriented silicon steel, while the output proportion of conventional CGO grain-oriented silicon steel remains low. Output of both varieties changes little compared with July. Steel mills have no intention of carrying out concentrated voluntary production cuts. The continuously ample supply keeps weighing on the spot market and creates obvious resistance to further price hikes. Newly added installed capacity of various power sources showed divergent performance in June, forming structural support for grain-oriented silicon steel demand. Newly installed thermal power capacity maintained relatively strong year-on-year growth. Thermal power supporting step-up transformers and auxiliary transformers for power plants continued to generate rigid demand for grain-oriented silicon steel. Newly installed hydropower capacity increased substantially, driving demand for main and auxiliary transformers of hydropower stations. Newly installed wind and solar power capacity was weaker than the same period of previous years, leading to limited incremental demand for box transformers and main transformers supporting new energy. Newly installed nuclear power capacity declined, resulting in periodic weakening of demand for special grain-oriented silicon steel for nuclear power applications. Overall, construction of traditional power sources gained momentum in June. Thermal and hydropower installed capacity contributed major incremental demand, supporting orders for large power transformers and further boosting demand for high-grade grain-oriented silicon steel. Insufficient incremental wind and solar power installations offset part of the demand growth. Therefore, demand presented a structural pattern: strong demand from traditional power sources and weak demand from the new energy sector. August Price Outlook Looking ahead to August 2026: On the supply side, domestic supply of grain-oriented silicon steel will edge down slightly. Major state-owned steel mills will basically continue high-load production, while some private enterprises will conduct minor maintenance, leaving overall supply broadly stable. Despite the price correction of grain-oriented silicon steel in July, most steel mills still enjoy decent profits. In addition, leading steel mills including Baowu lifted the August base price of grain-oriented silicon steel by RMB 50 per tonne, demonstrating obvious price-support sentiment and sound overall production enthusiasm. Deliveries of high-grade products remain steady; however, sufficient supply of conventional grades has brought inventory pressure to the market. On the demand side, China’s 15th Five-Year Plan UHV projects keep being launched. Transformer enterprises prioritize fulfilling supporting orders for UHV construction, and demand for high-grade grain-oriented silicon steel used in transformers for new energy grid interconnection stays resilient. Nevertheless, the impact of the high-temperature off-season will surface in August. Most downstream enterprises will only conduct inventory replenishment for rigid demand. The conversion of tender orders issued by State Grid and China Southern Power Grid is subject to time lags, and enterprises lack motivation for proactive stockpiling. Furthermore, India’s ongoing anti-dumping investigation against Chinese grain-oriented silicon steel has disrupted exports. Cargo diverted from overseas markets flows back and continuously hits the domestic market, putting prices under pressure. On the cost side, hot rolled coil prices are expected to fluctuate weakly in August with limited upward momentum, and the monthly average price will continue to decline month-on-month. In summary, SMM forecasts that grain-oriented silicon steel prices will fluctuate on a weak trend in August 2026. High-grade grades will be relatively resilient against price falls, while conventional grades will face more prominent downward pressure. Data source statement: (Data in this report other than public information are all sourced from public information (including but not limited to industry news, seminars, exhibitions, corporate financial reports, broker reports, National Bureau of Statistics data, customs import and export data, and various data published by major associations and institutions), market communication, and SMM's internal database models, and are produced by the research team through comprehensive analysis and reasonable inference; they are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making advice.) SMM reserves the final right of interpretation of the terms of this statement and the right to adjust and amend the content of the statement according to actual circumstances.

[SMM Flash] CAAM released data on the 12th showing that in July 2026, NEVs accounted for more than 60% of monthly new vehicle sales for the first time, and their cumulative share exceeded 50% for the first time; monthly exports surpassed 1 million units for two consecutive months, with NEVs accounting for over 50% of exports for two consecutive months.

China Sulphuric Acid Market Continued to Hit Bottom, Weak Demand Dragged Down the Price Center [SMM Sulphuric Acid Weekly Review]

[Tianjin Zinc: Actual Consumption Moderate, Downstream Inquiries Limited] In the Tianjin market, #0 zinc ingot was mainly traded at 25,440~25,660 yuan/mt, Zijin was traded at 25,560~25,740 yuan/mt, #1 zinc ingot was traded near 25,430~25,610 yuan/mt, Zijin was quoted at a premium of around 10~20 yuan/mt against the 2609 contract, Huxin was quoted at 26,845 yuan/mt, #0 zinc ingot was quoted at a discount of around 60~1,210 yuan/mt against the 2609 contract, and the Tianjin market was quoted at a discount of around 65 yuan/mt against the Shanghai market.