Based on on-site visits to the 2026 China Hydrogen Energy Exhibition and International Hydrogen Energy Conference, the most intuitive impression of this edition was that the industry as a whole is cooling down. Although the exhibition quality was moderate, enterprise participation and novelty were noticeably inferior to previous editions. In the hydrogen production sector, top-tier enterprises such as Sungrow Hydrogen, LONGi Hydrogen, and CRRC ZELC attended to hold up the show, while a number of mainstream industry players including LuDao Hydrogen, CSSC Peric, and MingYang Hydrogen did not exhibit. Fuel cell enterprises were almost entirely absent, with most having shifted to the FCVC exhibition in Shanghai. The exhibitors were still dominated by general parts enterprises such as valves, instruments, gaskets, and compressors, while core parts enterprises showed very low willingness to participate. The reasons were quite practical: on one hand, over 30% of hydrogen production enterprises make their own electrodes and separators, and the remaining enterprises have long established fixed partnerships with parts suppliers. Exhibitions can hardly bring in new clients and offer poor cost-effectiveness, so there were many familiar faces and few new enterprises on site. Instead, non-ferrous material enterprises such as Guiyan, Heraeus, Baoti, and Beikuang New Materials appeared in clusters, becoming the most noteworthy new change at this exhibition. Market differentiation in the hydrogen production segment has become very clear, with involution in China and going global becoming the mainstream choice for enterprises. Alkaline electrolysers face fierce price competition in China, with the price spread versus PEM continuing to widen. Medium-sized and larger enterprises have generally turned their attention to markets outside China, where export prices for MW-scale hydrogen production systems are considerable, along with export tax rebate policies. To meet European local content requirements, small and medium-sized enterprises mostly partner with local dealers, while top-tier enterprises are planning to build factories directly in Europe. Quite a few PEM electrolyser enterprises exhibited, but products were mainly small-scale units, primarily targeting metal refineries and small and medium-sized chemical enterprises. The biggest obstacle to promotion is ambiguous policy positioning — hydrogen is both an energy source and a hazardous chemical, and new equipment must go through approval and filing. Some local governments and enterprises show slightly lower enthusiasm due to safety and efficiency considerations. At this exhibition, the AEM technology route clearly gained momentum, with both equipment and parts enterprises increasing their deployment and technical exchanges becoming more open. However, the core issue remains the relatively short membrane lifespan, far below that of alkaline and PEM electrolysers. Meanwhile, the closed landscape of PEM core parts is being broken. Electrodes, membranes, and other components that enterprises previously kept for internal use are now being sold on the retail market, and the degree of marketisation across the industry chain is increasing. The convergence of non-ferrous materials and hydrogen energy is rapidly increasing, which is the most practically valuable signal from this exhibition. Enterprises such as Heraeus and Guiyan are concentrated in the PEM electrolyser catalyst field, Baoti's titanium materials are mainly used for bipolar plates, and nickel is a key material for alkaline electrolysers, extensively used in electrode plates, separator frames, and bipolar plates. Currently, catalyst enterprises are essentially all pursuing an integrated route of raw materials, compounds, and catalysts, while also supporting recycling operations. Small platinum group metal enterprises are also extending toward end-users, with a clear trend of full-chain deployment. By contrast, gas companies were almost absent from this exhibition, perhaps because metal powder users went to the powder metallurgy exhibition in Shanghai during the same period. There was some enterprise participation in the methanol-hydrogen blending and natural gas-hydrogen blending directions, with economic viability being more prominent in high natural gas price areas in south China, while promotion potential is relatively limited in the north where natural gas prices are more advantageous. Interest in hydrogen storage and transportation, refuelling, and fuel cell sectors continued to decline, with top-tier enterprises largely absent. Attention to hydrogen fuel cells fell far short of hydrogen production, and hydrogen production itself is also cooling down. Based on enterprise feedback on the 15th Five-Year Plan subsidy policies, subsidy resources are mainly concentrated in demonstration projects, infrastructure, and hydrogen transportation, with no direct subsidies for equipment manufacturing enterprises, which can only seek support through technological innovation and project applications. Cut-throat competition is expected to continue further. Overall, the current hydrogen energy industry has not broken out of its existing landscape. AEM is beginning to move toward marketisation, PEM remains focused on small batches and small-scale units, large alkaline electrolysers still rely on demonstration projects, and SOFC is also progressing gradually. As core parts become more open and market price signals become clearer, the industry is shifting from past expansion and momentum-building toward substantive implementation and deep cultivation. Future opportunities are more concentrated in the localisation of materials, marketisation of core parts, and expansion into markets outside China.

As of now, the FOB price of Indonesian MHP nickel was $15,341/mt Ni, and the FOB price of Indonesian MHP cobalt was $51,425/mt Co. MHP payables (against SMM battery-grade nickel sulphate index) stood at 86-87, and the MHP cobalt element payable indicator (against SMM refined cobalt (Rotterdam warehouse)) was 94. The FOB price of Indonesian high-grade nickel matte was $15,623/mt Ni.

[How Should Zinc Consumption Be Viewed Against the Backdrop of Geopolitical Conflicts?] Q1 2026 had passed, and the overall recovery in post-holiday consumption was somewhat delayed. How would consumption perform going forward?

This week, ternary cathode precursor prices rose somewhat. Today, nickel sulphate prices edged down slightly, cobalt sulphate prices held steady, and manganese sulphate prices increased slightly. Discounts, for April and Q2 orders, some producers were willing to raise discounts due to large fluctuations in raw material prices. Long-term contracts, some producers recently finalized long-term contracts; some producers saw slight increases in nickel and cobalt discounts, while some producers may still have some room for negotiation on processing fees. However, as downstream demand for high-priced raw materials remained weak, upside room is expected to be limited. Spot orders, the Ni-Co-Mn coefficient for March spot orders had already moved higher, and with current downstream procurement sentiment weak, further upside room is expected to be limited. Production, as China entered the off-season for demand this month, some enterprises saw their production schedules pull back. The export tax rebate deadline had passed, and production intensity at some enterprises related to the rush to export also declined. Looking ahead, cost support for sulphates remained relatively strong, but downstream acceptance of prices will depend on Q2 downstream demand.

As of now, the FOB price of nickel in Indonesian MHP was $15,383/mt Ni, and the FOB price of cobalt in Indonesian MHP was $51,364/mt Co. MHP payables (against the SMM battery-grade nickel sulphate index) were 86.5-87.5, and the payable indicator for cobalt element in MHP (against SMM refined cobalt (Rotterdam warehouse)) was 94. The FOB price of Indonesian high-grade nickel matte was $15,666/mt Ni.

In Q1 2026, China’s aluminum semis exports showed a pronounced pattern of product-category divergence amid the interplay of three factors: the long-term impact of the cancellation of export tax rebates in December 2024, the divergence in demand structures outside China, and the sudden outbreak of geopolitical conflict in the Strait of Hormuz.....

According to market reports, a major Taiwanese stainless steel wire rod manufacturer announced its April price list on March 30, raising 304 series wire rods by approximately $125/mt (NT$4,000). The 316 series saw a steeper increase of $219/mt (NT$7,000), while the 200 and 400 series both rose by $63/mt (NT$2,000). This move aligns with recent price jumps from other leading regional mills. The company attributed the surge to Middle East instability driving up energy and raw material costs, specifically for nickel, chrome, and molybdenum. Furthermore, a weakening New Taiwan Dollar and potential Indonesian export taxes on nickel have intensified inflationary pressures, directly impacting overall production expenses.

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] Indonesian Export Taxation Failed to Halt the SS Downtrend; Spot Stainless Steel Remained Stable, with Transactions Mainly Driven by Rigid Demand SMM News, March 31: SS futures continued to decline and pull back. Although news emerged about export taxation on Indonesian nickel products, dragged down by weaker SHFE nickel today, SS futures also fell in tandem, closing at 14,145 yuan/mt by the midday close. In the spot market, despite the decline in SS futures, the spot stainless steel market remained stable overall. Most traders kept quotes unchanged, while downstream end-users mainly maintained steady procurement based on rigid demand. The most-traded SS futures contract fluctuated. At 10:15 a.m., SS2605 was quoted at 14,365 yuan/mt, down 165 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in Wuxi were in the range of 270-470 yuan/mt. In the spot market, the average price of cold-rolled 201/2B coils in Wuxi was unchanged; for cold-rolled trim-edge 304/2B coils, the average prices in both Wuxi and Foshan held steady; cold-rolled 316L/2B coils in Wuxi were unchanged; hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coils in Wuxi were quoted flat; and cold-rolled 430/2B coils in both Wuxi and Foshan remained stable. The stainless steel market had entered the traditional peak consumption season. Transactions among downstream end-users remained stable, but market sentiment turned cautious. End-user enterprises lacked willingness to stockpile, and procurement was mainly driven by restocking as needed. The brisk trading pattern typically seen in the peak season had not emerged, and overall demand remained stable and neutral. Futures side, repeated disruptions from the Iran geopolitical conflict made its short-term impact on SS futures difficult to fully eliminate; however, recently, due to the conflict...

In March, China’s composite PMI for aluminum processing registered 65.6%, rebounding strongly above the 50 mark.

According to SMM data, the week of March 23–27, 2026 marked the final stretch of China’s traditional peak-demand season known as “Golden March.” During the week, the most-active stainless steel futures contract ( SS2605 ) posted a firmer, rangebound rebound as weak fundamentals clashed with renewed macro support. By the close on March 27 , the contract had risen to RMB 14,355/mt (about USD 2,076/mt) , up RMB 205/mt (about USD 29.65/mt) from RMB 14,150/mt (about USD 2,047/mt) a week earlier. The week’s defining feature was a sharp contrast between weak spot fundamentals and resilient market expectations. Physical demand remained mediocre, and social inventories moved back into accumulation. Even so, stainless futures found strong support from easing concerns over the Middle East, policy-related uncertainty in Indonesia’s nickel sector, and liquidity support from China’s central bank. As a result, prices managed to hold the lower end of the recent trading range and rebound from there. Macro backdrop: easing geopolitical stress, but rates remain a headwind At the macro level, both overseas and China-related developments saw important shifts. In the Middle East, the nearly month-long Strait of Hormuz crisis showed signs of easing after Iran’s mission to the United Nations said that non-hostile vessels could still pass safely through the strait in coordination with Iranian authorities. That helped cool fears of a major energy supply disruption. However, the inflation fallout from the earlier oil price spike has already shown up in global rates markets. US Treasury yields remained elevated, further reducing room for aggressive Fed easing expectations. In China, the central bank conducted a RMB 500 billion one-year MLF operation , equivalent to about USD 72.32 billion , helping keep liquidity conditions reasonably ample. While this was largely a routine move, it did help ease some of the valuation pressure created by a high global interest-rate environment and offered a degree of support to the market floor. Fundamentals: destocking stalls as inventories edge higher again On the fundamentals side, the destocking trend came to an abrupt halt, and “Golden March” ended on a disappointing note. The latest SMM data showed that social inventories failed to extend the declines seen over the previous two weeks and instead edged up to 982,000 mt , from 979,300 mt the week before, an increase of 2,700 mt . That renewed inventory build hit a sensitive spot for the market. In the spot market, downstream buyers continued to replenish only as needed, with very little appetite for stocking up. Throughout March, trading activity never showed the kind of momentum normally associated with a true seasonal demand peak. At the same time, mills have maintained relatively high production schedules, creating a mismatch between concentrated arrivals and lukewarm demand. As a result, inventory digestion is becoming more difficult rather than less, placing a clear cap on further upside in both futures and spot prices. Cost support stays firm as Indonesia policy rumors stir the market The cost side remained notably resilient, with fresh policy speculation adding another layer of support. As of March 27 , high-grade NPI was quoted at RMB 1,083.5 per nickel unit (about USD 156.71 per nickel unit) , while high-carbon ferrochrome held firm at RMB 8,650 per 50-basis mt (about USD 1,251.07 per 50-basis mt) . Although weak spot fundamentals still left mills inclined to push back against expensive raw materials, the market was unsettled this week by reports and rumors surrounding possible Indonesian export taxes and windfall taxes on nickel products. That policy uncertainty quickly revived bullish sentiment and helped upstream prices stabilize even as the market faced correction pressure. With raw material costs remaining elevated, downside room in stainless steel futures continued to look limited. Outlook: macro support sets the floor, weak demand caps the upside Overall, this week’s market was a clear example of macro support defining the downside floor while weak fundamentals capped the upside. “Golden March” ended without delivering the demand strength many had hoped for, and the return to inventory accumulation undermined the bullish case from a fundamental perspective. Even so, the combined effect of China’s RMB 500 billion MLF injection, easing Middle East tensions, and Indonesian tax-related speculation helped prevent a breakdown and instead allowed prices to rebound. Looking ahead, the market is now moving into the “Silver April” period. With inventories still high and mill output still elevated, there is little in the current fundamentals to support a strong one-way rally. At the same time, cost support remains firm enough to make a deep decline difficult. In the near term, the most-active stainless steel futures contract is expected to remain in a broad trading range. Market participants should pay close attention to whether Indonesian policy measures are formally implemented and how quickly spot inventories are absorbed after the holiday period. For now, chasing prices higher aggressively still looks risky. Written by: Bruce Chew | bruce.chew@smm.cn +601167087088