In 2026, the European Critical Raw Materials Centre (ECRMC) will be officially launched. This initiative is one of the solutions to accelerate the development of an independent supply chain, preventing the situation of “a single country supplying more than 65% of demand”. The center will have three main functions: monitoring and assessing the raw materials demand of member countries, conducting joint procurement on behalf of members, and stockpiling and delivering inventory when necessary. ECRMC, as some have commented as a “Tinder for metals,” will work with stakeholders to design a minimum pricing mechanism and framework. The first joint purchasing activity will begin in March 2026 through a platform that connects suppliers and purchasers.

As of March 24, titanium dioxide prices continued to rise, with the SMM index up 4.6% since early 2026. Two rounds of price hikes were issued in March amid low inventories. Strong exports and production cuts supported gains, though sustainability post-peak season remains uncertain, hinging on downstream acceptance.

Jan-Feb 2026 China magnesium exports reached 72.7kt, up 3.4kt YoY. Magnesium alloy led with +33.1% YoY, orders booked through April. Magnesium ingot fell 6.8% due to weak European demand, while powder grew 10.3%. However, US-Israel conflict disrupted Middle East aluminum plants, halting regional magnesium orders and pressuring Q2 outlook despite the strong start.

[SMM Tungsten Daily Review: Slight Price Collapse in the Scrap Tungsten Market, Ore and Upstream Smelting Products Consolidated Sideways] SMM News, March 23 In the short term, prices across the tungsten industry chain still showed divergence between primary and recycled materials. China was currently in a transition period marked by tightening supply on the raw ore side and a rising utilization rate of recycled materials. Smelters still needed some time to adjust their restocking practices and complete the adaptation and transition from a long-term contract pricing model led by the ore side to a scrap tungsten market procurement model featuring higher-frequency transactions and greater sensitivity to sentiment.

SMM News: Following our previous analysis of the transportation and wind power sectors, this installment shifts focus to the critical demand drivers in the consumer and construction domains: White Goods , Consumer Electronics , and Real Estate-related applications (Elevators and Power Tools). While these sectors individually consume less magnetic material per unit compared to New Energy Vehicles (NEVs), their sheer aggregate volume makes them indispensable pillars of the Neodymium-Praseodymium (Pr-Nd) market. However, data from early 2026 reveals a troubling trend of stagnation and structural contraction across these traditional strongholds. I. White Goods: The Dual Pressure of Production Slumps and Material Substitution In the white goods sector, Neodymium-Iron-Boron (NdFeB) magnets are primarily utilized in two key applications: compressors for inverter air conditioners and motors for drum and impeller washing machines . 1. Air Conditioners: A Sharp Contraction in Output and Dosage According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), China’s cumulative air conditioner production for January-February 2026 stood at 40.118 million units , a staggering 35% year-on-year (YoY) decline compared to the 61.921 million units produced in the same period of 2025. (Reason: This drastic drop is attributed to a combination of factors: firstly, an unusually mild winter across major consumption regions significantly dampened heating demand, leading to a destocking cycle among distributors. Secondly, the real estate sector’s continued downturn has severely curtailed new housing completions, directly reducing the installation of centralized and split AC systems. Lastly, high inventory levels carried over from 2025 forced manufacturers to aggressively cut production schedules in Q1 2026 to avoid capital lock-up.) Looking at the full year, SMM forecasts a marginal growth of 0.96% for 2026, with total annual production projected at 271.095 million units . (Reason: The near-flat growth outlook reflects a mature market saturation where replacement demand, rather than new installations, drives volume. While export markets offer some resilience against domestic weakness, rising trade barriers and logistical costs in key regions like Europe and North America are expected to cap significant expansion.) Applying SMM’s calculation model: Inverter Penetration: 99% NdFeB Motor Penetration: 92% Specific Consumption: Assumed at 100g/unit for 2026. Based on these parameters, the total NdFeB consumption for the air conditioner sector in 2026 is estimated at 24,691 tons , representing a 23% decrease from the 29,163 tons consumed in 2025. The core driver of this decline is twofold: first, the persistently high prices of Pr-Nd since the second half of 2025 have accelerated the industry’s cost-reduction initiatives. Second, there is a clear technological shift towards minimizing rare earth usage. The average single-unit dosage has dropped from 120g/unit in 2025 to 100g/unit in 2026 , as manufacturers optimize motor designs and, in some lower-end models, substitute with ferrite magnets or induction motor technologies where efficiency standards allow. 2. Washing Machines: A Slow Erosion of Demand For January-February 2026, China’s cumulative washing machine production was 18.58 million units , a slight 0.3% YoY decline from the 18.51 million units in the same period of 2025. (Reason: The stability in production volumes masks underlying weakness. The slight dip is primarily due to weak consumer confidence impacting discretionary spending on home appliance upgrades. Furthermore, the export market for washing machines has faced headwinds from sluggish global economic growth and intensified competition from Southeast Asian manufacturing hubs, offsetting modest domestic recovery efforts.) SMM projects a full-year growth rate of 3.1% for 2026. (Reason: This modest recovery is underpinned by government-led "trade-in" subsidy policies aimed at boosting domestic consumption of energy-efficient appliances. Additionally, product innovation in the high-end segment, such as washer-dryer combos and smart features, is expected to stimulate some replacement demand, though the overall ceiling remains low.) Demand Calculation Logic: Drum Washer Penetration: 63% (High-end, 98% use NdFeB) Impeller Washer Penetration: 28% (Mid-range, 50% use NdFeB) Specific Consumption: 290g/unit for drum washers; 240g/unit for impeller washers. Under this model, the total NdFeB demand for washing machines in 2026 is estimated at 27,204.52 tons , a 0.2% decrease from 27,262 tons in 2025. The sector is experiencing a slow but steady erosion of demand. While high-end drum washers rely heavily on efficient NdFeB motors to meet stringent energy labels, the volatility of rare earth prices is prompting manufacturers to cautiously explore alternative motor designs or reduce magnet grades in non-critical applications. Consequently, the industry has adopted a strategy of gradual reduction rather than abrupt substitution, balancing performance requirements with cost control. Outlook: The trajectory for white goods in 2026 is undeniably pessimistic. Both production volumes and technical intensity (dosage per unit) are trending downward, creating a double drag on Pr-Nd demand. II. Consumer Electronics: Volume Resilience vs. Intensity Decline The consumer electronics sector, modeled by SMM, comprises four main segments: Mobile Phones , Tablets , Desktops/Laptops , and Smartwatches . These devices utilize NdFeB primarily for acoustic components (speakers/receivers) and haptic feedback motors, with emerging uses in magnetic charging interfaces. The specific consumption is generally low, ranging from 2-5g/unit , except for desktops which average 15g/unit . Market Performance (Jan-Feb 2026): Mobile Phones: 220 million units (+6.8% YoY). Micro-computer Equipment: 41.956 million units (-31% YoY). Breakdown: 21% Tablets, 27% Desktops, 52% Laptops. Smartwatches: 8.196 million units (+7.8% YoY). (Reason: The divergence in performance is stark. Mobile phone growth is driven by the global rollout of AI-enabled handsets and the replacement cycle for 5G devices, particularly in emerging markets. Conversely, the sharp collapse in micro-computer equipment reflects the post-pandemic normalization of demand; the massive stockpiling of devices during 2020-2022 has led to a prolonged digestion phase. Additionally, extended device lifespans due to improved hardware durability have further suppressed replacement rates for PCs and tablets.) 2026 Full-Year Forecast: SMM anticipates a 1% growth for mobile phones and micro-computers combined, and a 5% growth for smartwatches. (Reason: The muted outlook for computing devices stems from persistent macroeconomic uncertainty and corporate IT budget tightening. For smartwatches, growth is fueled by increasing health-monitoring capabilities and deeper ecosystem integration with smartphones. However, the entire sector faces a cloud of uncertainty due to escalating geopolitical tensions affecting supply chains and rising memory chip prices, which may force OEMs to revise production targets downward later in the year.) Demand Estimation: Mobile Phones: 3,109.8 tons Micro-computers: 2,018.9 tons Smartwatches: 125.06 tons Total 2026 Demand: 5,253.76 tons , a 3% decline from 5,421.19 tons in 2025. The primary driver for this decline is the continuous, albeit slow, reduction in specific consumption. As miniaturization advances and alternative magnetic materials improve, the amount of NdFeB required per device is shrinking. Despite the relatively low single-unit dosage, the massive scale of the consumer electronics industry ensures it remains a significant consumer of NdFeB. Moreover, this sector is characterized by highly standardized supply chains, where major OEMs maintain binding agreements with certified magnet suppliers, making demand relatively stable but resistant to price-driven spikes. III. Real Estate Related: Elevators and Power Tools The final segment covers industries tightly coupled with the real estate cycle: Elevators and Handheld Power Tools . 1. Elevators: Policy Support vs. Structural Headwinds In January-February 2026, elevator production reached 150,000 units , a 7.1% YoY increase . (Reason: This short-term surge is largely attributable to the acceleration of projects that were delayed in late 2025, as developers rushed to meet pre-delivery deadlines before stricter regulatory inspections took effect. Additionally, government mandates for retrofitting old residential communities with elevators in urban renewal zones provided a temporary boost to order books.) However, SMM forecasts a full-year contraction of -3% for 2026. (Reason: The long-term outlook is grim due to the fundamental slowdown in new residential construction starts, which remain at multi-year lows. The debt crisis plaguing major property developers continues to stall new project launches, directly impacting the demand for new elevator installations. While the retrofit market offers some support, it is insufficient to offset the collapse in new building commissions.) Calculation: Energy-saving Elevator Penetration: 90% Specific Consumption: 6 kg/unit (for energy-saving models). Total 2026 Demand: 7,222.6 tons , a 1.3% increase from 7,125.3 tons in 2025. (Reason for Growth: The slight increase in total tonnage despite falling production volumes is entirely driven by the rising penetration of energy-saving elevators. Stricter national energy efficiency standards (GB standards) are forcing manufacturers to adopt permanent magnet synchronous motors (PMSM) over traditional asynchronous motors, thereby increasing the average NdFeB dosage per unit even as the total number of units declines.) 2. Handheld Power Tools: A Direct Casualty of Property Slump Production of handheld power tools in Jan-Feb 2026 was 29.566 million units , down 0.24% YoY . SMM projects a -3% decline for the full year 2026. (Reason: The downturn is inextricably linked to the stagnation in the global and domestic real estate markets. Reduced renovation activities and a slowdown in infrastructure projects have dampened demand for professional-grade tools. Furthermore, high inventory levels in distribution channels across North America and Europe, resulting from over-ordering in 2024, have led to a prolonged period of destocking.) Definition & Scope: According to the National Bureau of Statistics, handheld electric tools refer to portable motor-driven tools operated by hand, including electric drills, grinders, sanders, saws, and screwdrivers . These products are highly sensitive to housing turnover and renovation rates. Demand Calculation: NdFeB Penetration: 60% Specific Consumption: 80g/unit Total 2026 Demand: 9,134 tons , a sharp 13.4% drop from 10,548 tons in 2025. The significant contraction in this sector underscores the deep correlation between the property market and industrial metal demand. As the real estate sector remains in a prolonged adjustment phase, the downstream demand for power tools—and consequently NdFeB—faces sustained pressure. Conclusion The analysis of white goods, consumer electronics, and real estate-related sectors paints a picture of structural weakness for 2026. While niche policy drivers (like energy-saving elevator mandates) provide isolated pockets of growth, the overarching trends are defined by production saturation, inventory destocking, and aggressive material substitution . The combined effect of lower production volumes and reduced single-unit dosages creates a formidable headwind for Pr-Nd prices. In the final installment of this series, we will pivot to the future: examining the burgeoning demand from Low-Altitude Economy (eVTOLs), Robotics (Industrial and Service), and the relentless expansion of Electric Two-Wheelers . These emerging sectors may hold the key to offsetting the declines observed in traditional industries and reshaping the long-term demand curve for rare earth magnets.

“Gold’s status as a haven may now be tarnished in the eyes of some as the precious metal is falling in price even as war roils the Middle East and financial markets alike, and some may even be tempted to say that the third major bull run in the commodity since 1971 is now over,” says AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould.

This week, the rare earth market outside China showed a divergent pattern of “cerium up, the rest down.” Driven by price increases in China and rising ocean freight rates, cerium oxide FOB and CIF prices rose by $55/mt and $60/mt, respectively, while FOB offers for mainstream magnetic material raw materials such as praseodymium, neodymium, dysprosium, and terbium were generally lowered by $3-19.5/kg due to lower prices in China and tight supply caused by export controls. Although limited trading volumes supported premiums in markets outside China, expectations of an industrial slowdown in Europe triggered by the Middle East situation may suppress subsequent demand. On industry developments, Lynas’ Malaysia plant started samarium oxide production ahead of schedule, consolidating its position as the only commercial heavy rare earth separator outside China and advancing its 2030 strategy. In Australia, Terrain discovered high-grade magnetic rare earth ore intervals during drilling at its Western Australia project, highlighting significant resource potential.

It is worth noting that the overall overseas ternary cathode demand outlook for 2026 remains subdued. The U.S. market has been sluggish since the fourth quarter of last year, prompting many overseas manufacturers to place their hopes on the European market.

As of March 16, tungsten prices in China saw a slight correction, with APT quoted at 1.505 million yuan/mt. The market's fear of high prices was released, entering a phase of rational wait-and-see. Outside China, supply remained persistently tight, with the average APT Rotterdam price at $2,200/mtu, while weekly gains in tungsten scrap prices in India and Europe exceeded 25%.

[Sinomine Resource Group Engages with the Zimbabwean Government to Restart Its Lithium Export Business] Sinomine Resource Group confirmed that, after this African country recently suspended shipments of lithium concentrates, the company had been actively engaging with Zimbabwean government authorities to restart its lithium export business. The Chinese miner disclosed this development on Friday in response to an investor inquiry via the Shenzhen Stock Exchange’s official interactive platform. These talks came at a critical time for both Sinomine Resource Group and Zimbabwe. Lithium remained a sought-after mineral because of its essential role in producing batteries used in EVs and renewable energy storage systems. Zimbabwe, which holds substantial lithium reserves, had continued tightening its regulatory framework to ensure more value addition remained in China, rather than allowing the export of raw ore or materials that had undergone only preliminary processing. Sinomine Resource Group said in a statement that it was currently working closely with Zimbabwean government authorities on a new export approval application. The company stressed that the dialogue remained ongoing and formed part of its broader efforts to align with the country’s latest policies and compliance requirements. Although there was no clear timetable yet for when exports would resume, the engagement sent a positive signal that efforts were being made to resolve the issue. Source: https://www.chemanalyst.com/ [Vulcan Energy Achieves Drilling and Permitting Milestones at Its Geothermal Lithium Project in Germany] The company had officially broken ground at the Trappelberg drilling site in the Rohrbach area near Landau. This was Vulcan’s second drilling site after Schleidberg, where the company had completed the drilling and testing of its first geothermal well. Preparatory work at Trappelberg had begun to support the start of drilling in H2 2026. At present, a deep groundwater monitoring well had been completed to ensure the protection of near-surface aquifers during construction and drilling operations. Schleidberg and Trappelberg were 2 of the 5 new drilling sites that Vulcan would develop in the region. Thorsten Weimann, Chief Development Officer and Managing Director of Vulcan Energie Ressourcen GmbH, said: “The groundbreaking ceremony at Trappelberg marks an important step forward in the further development of our Lionheart project. With this new drilling site, we are further developing the geothermal reservoir and laying the foundation for climate-neutral heating in the region and sustainable lithium production in Europe.” Source: https://www.thinkgeoenergy.com/ [Core Lithium’s Finniss Project Secures a Strategic Financing Package of AUD 290 million] The fundamentals of global battery demand were reshaping investment strategies in the critical minerals sector, placing Australia’s lithium industry at a critical turning point. The combined effects of supply chain diversification needs, advances in energy storage technology, and geopolitical factors have created an environment in which strategic positioning determines the long-term value creation potential of mining. In addition, the restart of Core Lithium's Finniss project, backed by A$290 million, demonstrates how well-developed critical minerals strategies can unlock previously stalled projects through innovative financing structures. Against this backdrop, complex financing structures and operational optimization approaches have become key differentiators for projects seeking to capture the evolving market dynamics of the current lithium investment cycle. The sophisticated financing structure underpinning the restart of Core Lithium's Finniss project shows that contemporary mining finance has evolved beyond traditional debt-and-equity models into a strategic consortium model that disperses risk while maximizing operational synergies. Moreover, this financing approach reflects a broader trend across the mining sector. Source: https://discoveryalert.com.au/ [Copper, Cobalt, and Lithium Mines: US Critical Minerals Growth] In early 2026, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, together with senior US officials including Vice President JD Vance and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, received representatives from 54 countries and the European Commission at the Critical Minerals Ministerial meeting. The US announced new bilateral frameworks, financing initiatives exceeding $30 billion, and launched the Forum for Resource and Geostrategic Engagement (FORGE), aimed at building secure, diversified, and resilient critical minerals supply chains. Initiatives such as the Orion-Glencore memorandum of understanding and "Project Vault" indicate the US government's commitment to incentivizing private-sector investment and ensuring a stable and reliable supply of cobalt, copper, and other strategic materials, including those from the DRC. Source: https://miningdigital.com/ [Atlantic Lithium's Ewoyaa Project Financing Secures a Strategic Investment of $16.4 million] The global critical minerals landscape is undergoing a fundamental transformation, and institutional capital allocation strategies have moved beyond traditional mining investment models. Pension funds, sovereign wealth funds, and strategic investors now require more sophisticated financing structures to align long-term capital commitments with project de-risking milestones. This shift indicates the growing maturity of financing in the resources sector, which is moving away from speculative early-stage funding toward a more infrastructure-like investment approach that places greater emphasis on predictable returns rather than commodity price speculation. Contemporary lithium project development reflects this evolution, with financing solutions from diversified funding sources incorporating conditional capital structures, local ownership requirements, and ESG compliance frameworks. The combination of milestone-based warrant instruments, strategic partnership agreements, and domestic exchange listings has created an integrated financing ecosystem that balances capital efficiency with political and economic considerations. In addition, these innovations in the lithium industry are continuing to reshape the investment landscape. Source: https://discoveryalert.com.au/