Walk the bauxite-alumina-aluminum value chain across Central Asia's five republics and the picture resolves quickly: one country runs the whole chain, one runs a piece of it, and three play no meaningful role at all. That picture, however, may be on the verge of a significant shift.

Eurasian Resources Group (ERG) announced that Nature Energy Solutions has acquired a 39.3% stake in the company through purchases from co-founder Patokh Chodiev and the heirs of Alexander Machkevitch. ERG is a major producer of copper, cobalt, ferroalloys, iron ore, and aluminum, with significant mining assets in Kazakhstan and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). Market attention remains focused on the company’s shareholder restructuring and its strategic exposure to global copper and cobalt supply chains.

The Metalkol project in Kolwezi, owned by Eurasian Resources Group (ERG), holds over 100 million tonnes of tailings and is one of the world’s key sources of cobalt supply. Recently, however, a local cooperative known as Hosanna has entered the concession under the protection of Congolese soldiers, extracting tailings on a large scale and transporting them to nearby Chinese-owned refineries. ERG considers this an illegal encroachment, which could potentially shorten the project’s lifespan from around nine years to three years, resulting in more than $10 billion in lost revenue. However, both the Ministry of Interior and the Ministry of Mines in the DRC have stated that no formal authorization has been granted, and government authorities are currently stepping in to mediate the situation.

Eurasian Resources Group (ERG) stated on Monday that it voluntarily reduced its cobalt hydroxide production in the Democratic Republic of the Congo in 2025 amid the country’s export ban and quota system, and only plans a partial recovery in output in 2026. ERG slashed its cobalt hydroxide production by 70% in 2025, down to 5,700 metric tons from 19,000 tons in 2024, and intends to double its cobalt output in 2026 compared with 2025. Its 2026 export quota in the DRC, including unused volumes from the fourth quarter of 2025, totals 12,325 metric tons of cobalt metal. Data shows that due to earlier front-loaded exports, the DRC exported only 48,800 metric tons of cobalt in the first quarter of 2026, much lower than the 123,000 tons recorded in the same period of 2025.

Affected by shipping turmoil triggered by the Iran situation, major copper and cobalt producers in the DRC have had orders for key leaching chemicals canceled or withdrawn by suppliers this month, forcing them to reduce chemical usage and consider output cuts.Sources indicate that thousands of metric tons of sodium metabisulfite (SMBS) orders have been unilaterally canceled or withdrawn after contract signing. Miners are cutting chemical consumption to extend existing stockpiles, and are even considering lowering cobalt production or producing off-spec material to maintain operations.Affected companies include top miners in the DRC such as CMOC, Glencore, and Eurasian Resources Group.

According to foreign media reports, Glencore has proposed supporting Kazakh entrepreneur Shakhmurat Mutalip's $1.4 billion bid to acquire a 40% stake in Eurasian Resources Group.

Metalkol, a subsidiary of the Eurasian Resources Group (ERG) in the DRC, announced that its production site has recently been certified under the Copper Mark, making it the world's first tailings reprocessing project to receive this certification. The certification, based on 33 criteria covering environmental, social, and governance (ESG) standards, validates Metalkol's performance in responsible production, tailings management, human rights, and community engagement. It is valid for three years and requires regular performance monitoring.

On February 10, ERG Africa, a subsidiary of Eurasian Resources Group (ERG), and Enterprise Générale du Cobalt (EGC), a state-owned entity of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), signed a memorandum of understanding on the sidelines of the Mining Indaba in Cape Town. The agreement establishes a public-private partnership aimed at promoting the formalization, professionalization, and regulation of artisanal and small-scale mining (ASM) in the DRC. Under the agreement, EGC will obtain mining rights to an exploitation area owned by ERG in Lualaba Province and will implement a pilot project to develop a more structured mining model.

At the beginning of 2026, the global critical metals market entered a new cycle of volatility driven by resource nationalism and strategic competition among major powers. The core conflict is shifting from pure market supply and demand to direct competition for control over mineral resources and dominance in supply chains. Cobalt, as a strategic metal in the new energy and high-end manufacturing sectors, is experiencing particularly profound market changes. I. Supply Side: Resource Control and Alliance Games Reshape Global Circulation Structural tightening and targeted control on the supply side constitute the primary constraints for the cobalt market in 2026. 1. Resource National Policies: Tightening from Both "Volume" and "Price" Ends Major resource-producing countries are strengthening resource sovereignty through more direct means. The DRC officially implemented export quota management for cobalt, setting the total quota for 2026-2027 at 96,000 mt, controlling the release pace of global core supply from the source. Indonesia, by reducing its nickel ore production target (2026 target approximately 250 million mt, down 34% from 2025) and planning to classify cobalt as an independent mineral subject to royalty fees, is exerting influence from cost and byproduct supply perspectives. 2. Geopolitical Games: Western Alliances Building a "Resource Closed Loop" Two key actions led by the US are attempting to systematically reshape the global flow of cobalt resources: On February 3, Glencore announced its intention to transfer a 40% strategic equity stake in its core assets, the Mumi and KCC projects in the DRC, to the US-supported "Orion Critical Minerals Coalition" (Orion CMC). While the transaction retains operational rights, the coalition gains key product sales direction rights. On February 4, the US convened the first "Critical Minerals Ministerial Meeting," promoting the establishment of a "Critical Minerals Club" involving about 30 countries. This aims to create an exclusive resource circulation system within the alliance through mechanisms such as tariff-free trade and setting price floors. 3. Supply to China: Evolving from "Procurement Challenges" to a "Structural Crisis" Against this backdrop, China's cobalt raw material supply faces unprecedented structural challenges. Estimates indicate: The quota corresponding to Chinese enterprises' own share is 48,720 mt, accounting for only 50.43% of the total quota. Approximately 60% (6,800 mt) of Glencore's own share is expected to flow to China based on historical cooperation. The proportion of shares from companies like the Eurasian Resources Group and EGC that are handled by traders such as Mercuria ultimately flowing to the Chinese market is highly uncertain, representing the largest risk exposure in the supply chain. II. Demand Side: Differentiation and Resilience Under Cost Pressure and Technological Evolution While the demand side is impacted by weakness in the end-user electronics market, it also demonstrates structural resilience driven by technological advancements. 1. End-user market under pressure, shipment expectations generally lowered Affected by the soaring prices of key components such as memory chips, global demand for consumer electronics in 2026 is suppressed: Smartphones: Global shipment growth expectations are revised down by 7.48%, with a significant impact on the domestic Android segment. PCs and tablets: Manufacturers plan to raise prices by at least 10% to pass on costs, which is expected to result in a decline in shipments of about 10%. 2. LCO demand: Technological upgrades offset weak sales Despite the pessimistic outlook for end-user shipments, the continuous improvement in battery energy density remains a key support. It is expected that the single-unit power capacity of 3C products will maintain an annual growth rate of over 10% before 2028. This factor effectively cushions the impact of declining sales, maintaining core demand for LCO materials. Based on this, the 2026 projections are: Global LCO cathode material production schedule: 126,500 mt Corresponding refined cobalt demand: 75,800 mt in metal content China's LCO cathode material production schedule: 113,500 mt Corresponding refined cobalt demand: 68,000 mt in metal content III. Core contradiction in 2026: Shortage is inevitable, industrial ecosystem faces restructuring Considering both supply and demand, the key feature of the 2026 cobalt market will be the intense clash between "politicized supply" and "technologized demand." 1. Supply-demand gap for intermediate products becomes evident On the demand side, the rigid demand for intermediate products from LCO and other sectors (such as cobalt hydroxide additives, magnetic materials, etc.) is approximately 51,000 mt in metal content. On the supply side, the total amount of intermediate products confirmed to flow into China is about 55,500 mt in metal content, but it is estimated that around 25,000 mt in metal content will be prioritized for use in ternary batteries and other areas. This means that only about 30,000 mt in metal content of intermediate products will be available to meet the domestic demand for LCO and other markets, indicating a clear supply gap. 2. Market liquidity and pricing power shift In 2026, China's own quotas will mainly be used for internal supply, making it difficult for them to enter the open market. This means that the spot market's circulating goods will heavily rely on shares from overseas suppliers like Glencore and Eurasian Resources. This change will significantly strengthen the pricing influence of foreign traders in the domestic spot market, intensifying price volatility. 3. Long-term industrial impact: Extreme competition spurs technological revolution and decentralization of the supply chain The current resource scramble may be depleting the future of traditional supply chain models: Accelerated industrialization of recycling: Supply instability and high prices will act as the strongest catalysts, driving recycling from an "environmental protection supporting role" to a "pillar of supply chain security." Technological breakthroughs and large-scale applications will develop beyond expectations. Material Technology Route Iteration: Persistently high cobalt prices will substantially drive the low-cobalt/decobaltization process. The penetration of LCO-ternary composite materials in the low and mid-end segments will accelerate significantly, reducing reliance on primary cobalt from the source of demand. Conclusion The cobalt market in 2026 is not merely an issue of economic cycles. It is a race between a geopolitically orchestrated supply chain fragmentation and a technology substitution and recycling revolution driven by market economy principles. In the short term, resource controllers have gained the upper hand through administrative and alliance measures, intensifying market tension and volatility. However, in the long run, such extreme control behaviors are likely accelerating the cultivation of a new-type industrial ecosystem that is unfavorable to them—one that is flatter, more efficient, and reliant on technological innovation.

May 7, 2025 News: According to a report by Eurasian Resources Group (ERG) on April 30, ERG has signed an Engineering, Procurement, and Construction (EPC) contract with China Tianchen Engineering Corporation (TCC) to build a ferroalloy gas utilization facility in Kazakhstan. The project plans to integrate the first 80-megawatt (MW) wind power plant in Khromtau, Kazakhstan, into the No. 4 smelting workshop of the Aktobe Ferroalloy Plant, converting by-products lost to combustion into round-the-clock electricity. It is expected that the facility will divert over 600,000 m³ of natural gas annually, thereby eliminating combustion and significantly reducing emissions. ERG has allocated $92 million for the project, which is expected to be completed in 2026 and is anticipated to create new permanent job opportunities. Meanwhile, the initiative also ensures self-generated power, placing Kazchrome, a subsidiary of ERG and one of the world's largest ferroalloy producers, on a clear path to support the country's carbon neutrality goals.