The NDRC and NEA officially issued a multi-user direct green power connection policy, expanding the consumption model from "one-to-one" to "one-to-many." This makes C&I energy storage a regulatory necessity. Driven by this policy, market enthusiasm for new energy and storage supply chains rose, boosting relevant ETFs and stocks like CATL and Sungrow.

22 May, 2026 Highlights Gold import duty was raised sharply by 9%– from 6% to 15%, the steepest increase on record – alongside broader regulatory tightening Domestic gold prices have not yet fully reflected the duty hike amid weak demand and ample supply; local markets are currently in deep discount from the landed price 1 Past trends indicate that higher duty increases unofficial inflows, although official imports remain relatively resilient Gold demand is expected to moderate in 2026, with jewellery and bar and coin demand projected to decline by 50–60t (~10% y/y) on account of the import duty hike. Policy actions on gold imports Since early April the government has adopted a series of measures aimed at moderating gold imports. These have been part of a broader push to conserve foreign exchange reserves amid geopolitical uncertainty and mounting pressure on the INR, which has depreciated by more than 7% y-t-d. These measures include price-based actions, administrative and regulatory tightening, and consumer-directed messaging. While noteworthy, they are not unprecedented; gold is among the top five imports for India, accounting for 8% of the country’s merchandise imports in 2025, and similar measures have been utilised in the past. On the price front, the gold import duty was raised sharply from 6% to 15%, making it the single largest increase on record and fully reversing the duty cut of July 2024 ( Chart 1 ). Rules were also tightened for gold imports linked to exports (under the advance authorisation scheme) 2 and the Prime Minister has directly appealed to consumers, urging them to avoid buying gold for a year. 3 Chart 1: Import duty reverses course Customs duty on gold (%)* *As of 13 May 2026 Source: CBIC, World Gold Council. These measures followed a series of policy actions that were seen as efforts to slow the import of gold, including the delay in issuing annual licenses for bullion imports to banks, 4 restrictions on the import of all forms of gold, silver and platinum jewellery and platinum alloys; 5 and continued delay in issuance of notification exempting banks from the Integrated Goods and Service Tax (IGST), 6 which led to the banks pausing bullion imports for over a month. 7 The pattern of gold import duty revisions To date, India’s gold import duty revisions have been infrequent, with long periods of stability between policy revisions. Gold imports were subject to a flat duty (a fixed rupee amount per 10g) prior to 2012, but this was subsequently replaced by a value-based duty structure. Between 2012 and 2013 duties were raised repeatedly through a series of 2% hikes, up to 10%. This was followed by a prolonged gap of nearly six years before a further 2.5% hike in July 2019. Since then, revisions have become larger and more frequent, including duty cuts in 2021 and 2024 and sharp hikes in 2022 and 2026, reflecting a more active use of import duties to manage trade dynamics. Table 1: India’s gold import duty cycle Source: CBIC, World Gold Council Price adjustment – the tariff lag effect As expected, the import duty hike led to an immediate increase in domestic gold prices. However, the rise in prices was lower than the 9% increase in duty. Physical market prices, proxied by the MCX spot gold price, have risen in the range of 4% to 6% since the change in duty. While the duty hike mechanically raises the official domestic or landed price, 8 physical market prices do not fully or immediately mirror the increase in duty – rather they adjust to it with a lag, particularly when the change is as steep as the current 9%. Moreover, the increase came at a time of seasonally weak demand – summer wedding purchases are largely over, and the period from mid-May to mid-June is considered inauspicious for buying gold – thus limiting the full pass-through of the duty hike. Market feedback indicates that there is ample supply from the exchange of old gold jewellery for new, and the likely front-loading of imports, further limiting the rise in price. Chart 2: Prices have risen less than the duty hike Landed price and MCX spot gold price in USD per ounce* *As of 18 May 2026. Landed price is the international prices (LBMA Gold Price AM) adjusted for import taxes. Source: Bloomberg, CBIC World Gold Council. Domestic gold prices trade at a deep discount post duty revision In the immediate aftermath of the import duty hike, domestic gold prices traded at a steep discount to official prices, 9 widening from an average of US$14/oz the week prior to the duty hike to nearly US$150/oz ( Chart 3 ). The rise in domestic prices post the duty hike triggered profit-taking by investors, boosting supply even as physical buying weakened, and bullion dealers likely offloaded inventory imported at lower duty rates, adding to market supply. Chart 3: Discounts widened sharply NCDEX gold premium/discount relative to the official domestic price* *As of 15 May 2026. Source: NCDEX, World Gold Council. Previous import duty hikes in 2019 and 2022 also resulted in discounts in the domestic market, but this episode has been significantly more pronounced due to the scale of the increase ( Table 2 ). Table 2: Post-duty hike movement in domestic gold price discounts (US$/oz) Source: NCDEX, World Gold Council Market and trade reaction and expectations Share prices of listed jewellers fell by ~2%–17% following the duty hike, reflecting expectations of weaker discretionary demand. Market feedback and trade interactions suggest a varied impact across segments, with many retailers indicating a likely pause in procurement. Large chain stores saw a brief period of panic buying after the announcement, driven by expectations of further measures, and while they expect a slowdown in sales, they remain relatively resilient given inventory buffers and continued support from bridal demand. Mid-sized and regional players continue to see buying from affluent customers but are expecting to rely more on exchange programmes and tighter inventory cycles going forward. Smaller retailers appear the most vulnerable: already stretched by persistently high prices, they now face added pressure from sales volumes and profit margins. Import duties and smuggling Import data points to a consistent relationship between higher import duties and the inflow of unofficial gold. Between 2013 and 2026 increases in import duty were mostly followed by higher levels of unofficial or smuggled gold, while duty reductions coincided with sharp declines in such inflows. Excluding the COVID years of 2020–21, the correlation between import duty and unofficial imports is positive at 0.52, indicating a meaningful link between higher duties and smuggling activity. Following the 4% duty hike in 2013, unofficial imports increased sharply from around 10t in Q1 of that year to 70t by Q1 2014, a seven-fold increase in under a year. Even when duties were steady at 10% through the second half of 2013 until Q2 2019 unofficial inflows remained elevated, averaging 34t per quarter. This suggests that once smuggling networks are established they are difficult to unravel. A similar pattern was observed after duty was hiked from 10.75% to 15% in July 2022. Unofficial imports rose from 17t in Q2 2022 to nearly 50t by late that year and stayed elevated through much of 2023. In contrast, after duty was cut to 6% in July 2024, unofficial imports fell almost immediately to near zero. There was a temporary drop in unofficial imports during 2020–21, which can be attributed to COVID-related disruptions. The evidence suggests that higher import duties widen the domestic–international price gap and increase the incentive for smuggling, while lower duties reduce its attractiveness. Chart 4: Import duty driven shifts Source: Metal Focus, World Gold Council. Limited duty sensitivity of imports Our analysis suggests that import duty changes have had a limited influence on official import volumes over the past 13 years. 10 Across duty regimes ranging from 6% to 15% official imports remained relatively resilient, between 175t and 236t per quarter in most periods, excluding the COVID period in 2020. The highest quarterly imports were recorded under the 10.75% duty regime (236.2t), while imports also remained stable at the higher 15% duty rate (174.5t). Statistically, the overall correlation between duty rates and official imports is negative 0.17, indicating a weak relationship between the two. This suggests that duty changes are not a key driver of imports; rather, broader demand conditions play a greater role. Chart 5: Steady imports through duty cycles Average quarterly official imports at various import duty levels* *As of 18 May 2026. Source: DGCIS, CBIC, World Gold Council Recent data also highlights import resilience: April imports rose to US$5.6bn, up more than 80% on an annual as well as a sequential basis. This was despite banks pausing gold imports as they awaited the renewal notification that exempt them from the integrated goods and services tax (IGST). This suggests that the imports were likely driven by refiners, who increased their intake of gold doré around the key demand period of Akshaya Tritiya (19-20 April) further supported by gold price moderation. At the same time, some degree of front loading of imports – in anticipation of curbs amid the prolonged Iran-US conflict, elevated oil prices, and the INR vulnerability to a high import bill – cannot be ruled out based on anecdotal evidence. In volume terms, we estimate imports in April were in the range of 48-55t. Chart 6: Imports rise despite disruptions Monthly gold imports in tonnes and US$bn* *Includes World Gold Council estimates. Source: Ministry of Commerce and Industry, CMIE, World Gold Council Gold ETFs: flows slow Indian gold ETFs continued to attract inflows in April 2026, marking the 12th consecutive month of positive flows. Net inflows stood at INR30.4bn (US$325mn), broadly in line with our estimates . 11 While inflows were modestly higher sequentially (up 3% m/m), they remained well below January’s peak, at about 13% of the INR240bn (US$2.6bn) recorded at that time, signalling a moderation in demand after a very strong start to the year. Redemptions stayed elevated in April at INR20.5bn (US$220mn), reflecting ongoing profit-taking, a trend seen since February. Cumulative holdings rose by 1.1t to 116.7t, while AUM stood at INR1,781bn (US$19bn), a modest 3% decline from January, largely due to softer gold prices (down ~9% in INR terms). Investor participation remained healthy, with folios (or accounts) reaching 12.5mn, although growth slowed in April, with folio additions of 77,413 – the lowest since September 2024. Gold ETFs experienced outflows following the import duty hike, with redemptions from 13-18 May largely reversing earlier gains. On a month-to-day basis, however, demand remains marginally positive at around INR1bn (~US$12mn). Chart 7: Gold ETF momentum softens Gold ETF flows in INRbn, and total holdings in tonnes* *As of end April 2026. Source: AMFI, ICRA Analytics, CMIE, World Gold Council Demand moderation Gold demand trends across different duty regimes indicates that while import duties influence consumption, other key factors such as gold prices, income growth and inflation, simultaneously impact demand. Periods of high import duties have generally coincided with a moderation in demand, particularly for bars and coins. Average quarterly demand remained relatively subdued during the extended 10% duty period of 2013-19 ( Chart 8 ) as well as during the period of 12.5% duty (2019-20), although the latter was also affected by COVID. Chart 8: Tariffs temper demand Average jewellery and bar and coin demand at various import duty levels* Source: Source: Metal Focus, CBIC, World Gold Council Our econometric models 12 suggest that changes in import duties tend to impact gold demand in both the short and long term, although the impact differs across jewellery and investment products such as bars and coins. Investment demand appears more sensitive to duty changes, while jewellery demand has shown greater resilience. Jewellery consumption is influenced more by prices and inflation and import duties have less of an impact. This is likely because jewellery purchases often tend to be a requirement, particularly for weddings and social occasions. Investment demand on the other hand is linked to income levels and import duties, with higher duties and restrictions tending to weigh on demand. In the short term, factors such as inflation and rainfall also influence investment demand alongside taxes. Looking at 2026 as a whole, we estimate that combined jewellery and bar and coin demand could decline by around 50-60t, around 10% lower than the previous year due to the impact of the import duty hike. Other factors, such as the gold price, changes to income levels, inflation, or effects from the monsoon would further influence annual demand. Footnotes 1 Landed price is the international price (LBMA Gold Price AA) adjusted for import taxes. Prices as of 18 May 2026. 2 Centre further tightens gold import rules, caps advance authorization at 100 kg, The Tribune, 20 May 2026. 3 Why PM Modi asked Indian families not to buy gold for a year, India Today, 11 May 2026. 4 After delay, DGFT authorises 17 banks to import bullion for 3 years, Indian Express,17 April 2026 5 India imposes immediate restrictions on gold, silver and platinum jewellery imports to curb FTA misuse, NDTV Profit, 1 April 2026. 6 IGST is a tax on the supply of goods and services between states in India. 7 India's gold import crisis: Why banks halted shipments for a month and what it took to start again, Money Control, 12 May 2026. 8 Landed price is the international price (LBMA Gold Price AM) adjusted for import taxes. 9 Official domestic price is the landed prices which is the international price adjusted for import taxes. 10 Q3 2013 to Q1 2026. 11 Based on partial information 12 Reference page 128-132. Source： https://www.gold.org/goldhub/gold-focus/2026/05/india-gold-market-update-import-tightening

Fri, May 22, 2026 at 9:56 PM GMT+8 JPMorgan has reduced its gold price forecasts for 2026, pointing to softer short-term demand conditions, although the bank continues to hold a bullish longer-term outlook and still expects gold to climb toward $6,000 per troy ounce by the end of the year. The bank lowered its 2026 average gold price forecast to $5,243 per ounce from a previous estimate of $5,708, citing weaker investor participation and subdued market positioning in the near term. According to JPMorgan, gold is currently trading within a narrow technical range between its 200-day moving average near $4,340 per ounce and its 50-day moving average around $4,730 per ounce, while futures market activity and ETF inflows remain relatively muted. “Gold is on the back burner for most investors at the moment,” analysts led by Gregory Shearer wrote, adding that concerns over the possibility of Federal Reserve interest rate increases in response to energy-driven inflation are limiting investor confidence in the short term. Despite the downgrade to its forecasts, JPMorgan stressed that it views the recent weakness as a temporary pause rather than a fundamental change in trend. The bank said its constructive long-term thesis — based on fiscal risks, currency debasement concerns, geopolitical fragmentation and uncertainty surrounding U.S. policymaking — remains intact, but is “on hold until more clarity arrives around a resolution of the Iran conflict.” One of the key developments JPMorgan is monitoring is a possible reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, which the bank’s oil analysts expect could occur in June. Analysts believe such a development would ease inflation-related risks and begin reversing recent gains in the U.S. dollar and real bond yields, potentially triggering a recovery in gold prices toward technical resistance levels between $4,900 and $5,100 per ounce. The bank also expects investors who previously reduced gold exposure to gradually return to the market, supporting a rebound in demand during the second half of the year. JPMorgan reduced its forecast for central bank gold purchases in 2026 to 640 tonnes from 800 tonnes previously, after officially reported net buying dropped to just 16 tonnes during the first quarter amid increased selling activity. However, including unreported purchases, total central bank buying still reached 244 tonnes during the quarter, based on estimates from the World Gold Council and Metals Focus. The bank additionally cut its forecast for ETF inflows to around 400 tonnes for the full year from an earlier projection of 580 tonnes, although it noted that global ETF holdings remain up by 108 tonnes since the start of the year. Analysts said the largest risk to their outlook would be a scenario in which strong U.S. labour market conditions and rising inflation force the Federal Reserve into a prolonged cycle of interest rate hikes, potentially leading to sustained outflows from Western gold-backed ETFs. Source： https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/commodities/articles/goldman-maintains-bullish-gold-outlook-141040865.html

May 19, 2026 key takeaways. Gold’s recent price consolidation does not, in our view, undermine the medium-term case for higher prices Structural support remains intact, with resilient central bank and private investor demand, reflecting broad fiscal uncertainty and currency concerns The key risks to watch would be a shift to more restrictive central bank policies that pushes real yields higher for longer, or a deterioration in passive fund flows We stay constructive on gold, maintain our overweight allocation in portfolios, and keep our 12-month price target at USD 5,400/oz. Gold has been one of the defining financial assets of the last 12 months. Yet after a strong performance, especially in the second half of 2025, prices have stalled. Momentum has cooled, and the metal has at times lagged what investors might have expected from a haven asset during a period of geopolitical stress. Gold has been one of the defining financial assets of the last 12 months. Yet after a strong performance, especially in the second half of 2025, prices have stalled. Momentum has cooled, and the metal has at times lagged what investors might have expected from a haven asset during a period of geopolitical stress. Gold prices more than doubled in the year to January 2026, reaching a record USD 5,595 per ounce before declining in the wake of the Middle East conflict to a trough of USD 4,099/oz in mid-March, most recently reaching USD 4,560/oz. In contrast to comparable periods of geopolitical tension – such as the Iranian Revolution in 1979, the first and second Gulf Wars, or Russia’s invasion of Ukraine – gold has seen a larger drawdown with much higher levels of volatility. It has fallen by over 10% since the conflict began. We believe this reflects market concerns over inflation and crowded investor positioning at the start of 2026. As a non-yielding asset, gold performs best when real yields decline and the US dollar depreciates. However, an energy supply shock can have the opposite effect, resulting in markets pricing higher central bank rate expectations, higher yields and a firmer US dollar. It is therefore unsurprising that gold has shown a strong negative relationship with rising energy prices. If the Middle East conflict de-escalates and energy prices fall, in line with our base scenario, gold could recover, supported by some normalising of previously high investor positioning. Gold prices more than doubled in the year to January 2026, reaching a record USD 5,595 per ounce… Still, the Middle East conflict is not the only variable for prices. The medium-term outlook is also determined by whether demand and the broader geopolitical and fundamental macroeconomic environment have changed. Here, we do not see a shift and therefore remain constructive on gold, maintaining our 12-month price target of USD 5,400/oz, and our overweight allocation in portfolios. To understand gold’s recent loss of momentum, it helps to separate structural from short-term drivers. At the structural level, demand from both central banks and private investors remains resilient. This explains how short-term headwinds – including a stronger dollar and higher bond yields – can create temporary weakness without undermining longer-run demand. In other words, slowing momentum should not be mistaken for a structural reversal. Structural incentives to hold gold The most compelling structural case for gold lies in incentives for investors, private and public, to hold a real asset. Yet unlike most currencies, where supply can expand due to monetary and fiscal easing, gold supply has been stable through history: industry estimates suggest some 220,000 tonnes of gold have been mined throughout history, with new mine output adding just over 1% to above-ground stocks each year . Moreover, unlike currencies, gold is not subject to financial sanctions. US sanctions on Russia accelerated central banks’ desire to hold reserve assets such as gold that are insulated from such threats while preserving value. As more countries gradually diversify away from use of the US dollar and settle trade in other currencies, demand for neutral reserve assets such as gold rises. At the structural level, demand from both central banks and private investors remains resilient At the same time, lower confidence in some currencies has supported private investor demand, especially as gold helps portfolio diversification. Persistent fiscal uncertainty and still-high inflation reinforce this trend. When investors question the long-term path of public debt, the capacity to finance deficits, or policy credibility, demand for diversified assets increases. In this environment, gold can provide a hedge against risks that are hard to manage – including inflation surprises, poor management of government finances that ends up constraining monetary policy, or declining confidence in institutions. The price of gold, for example, has recently correlated with fears around the Federal Reserve’s independence. Persistent demand trends contribute to price appreciation Over the past decade, there has been a strong link between total gold volumes bought by both private investors and central banks, and real gold prices. Approximately 400 metric tonnes of quarterly demand is consistent with price stability, with every additional 100 tonnes associated with roughly a three-percentage-point rise in quarterly prices. Since 2023, demand has averaged about 620 tonnes a quarter, well above the 450-tonne average between 2010 and 2022. Despite concerns about weaker demand this year, World Gold Council data shows total demand of 790 tonnes over the first quarter of 2026, of which central banks purchased a net 244 tonnes, a 3% increase year on year. Private demand was roughly in line with 2025’s average. Lower ETF flows were offset by higher demand for physical gold, with China accounting for 40% of the total. Central banks can create a higher ‘floor’ From 1980 to 2005, central banks reduced their gold reserves, and that trend accelerated after the Cold War with globalisation, and US security guarantees for allies. However, recent years have re-set international relations, and central banks have rapidly increased their gold purchases . The rationale is straightforward: reserve managers’ gold purchases reflect concerns about US financial sanctions, broader geopolitical uncertainty, and unpredictable trade policies. The share of gold in overall reserves held by emerging market central banks is still less than their developed market peers While demand has been strongest in emerging countries, a structurally higher baseline of purchases by central banks across many countries can reduce the depth and duration of any price falls, particularly if private investor flows become volatile. Importantly, the share of gold in overall reserves held by emerging market central banks is still less than their developed market peers, suggesting more room for buying. As a result, such demand is likely to remain. Recently, some emerging market countries, such as Turkey, have sold or swapped gold reserves to manage currency depreciation pressures exacerbated by the conflict in the Middle East. We see such moves as exceptions to the broader trend of purchases in countries with free-floating exchange rates. Real yields and monetary credibility The outlook for interest rates and their impact on private investor flows will be another key factor for gold prices. Gold is sensitive to real yields: when they fall, the opportunity cost of holding gold declines, supporting prices. This link has re-asserted itself in recent months. In principle, a more restrictive Federal Reserve monetary policy could weigh on gold prices if it resulted in persistently higher real yields. However, we see this risk as limited. The Fed is likely to keep policy rates on hold for much of 2026, with any rate cut more likely towards the end of the year. Rate moves matter for investor flows into the gold market. Physically-backed ETFs, which allow investors to gain exposure to gold without owning the metal, tend to be sensitive to rate expectations. Even after strong inflows, total ETF holdings are not back to their historical highs. Broadly stable flows would support demand. We therefore remain constructive on gold, maintaining our overweight allocation and our 12‑month price target of USD 5,400/oz The structural case remains intact We do not expect the recent gold price consolidation to alter its medium-term trajectory. Cooling investor sentiment does not undermine the structural case for gold, but instead shifts focus back to slower-moving drivers including central bank demand, portfolio allocation and fiscal uncertainty. Three factors support this view. First, demand remains resilient despite volatility. Second, the macro context still favours real assets amid fiscal uncertainty and the gradual erosion of purchasing power. Third, recent headwinds look short term rather than structural – including higher yields and a stronger US dollar, which we see as temporary. Risks remain. Negative factors to watch would be higher-for-longer real yields, a prolonged decline in ETF demand, or lower physical demand, for example for jewellery, even if that were partly offset by central bank buying. We therefore remain constructive on gold, maintaining our overweight allocation and our 12-month price target of USD 5,400/oz. Our structural case for the precious metal rests on resilient demand, fiscal uncertainty and the gradual erosion of US dollar purchasing power. Source： https://www.lombardodier.com/insights/2026/may/gold-s-slowdown.html

May 21, 2026 The gold price is stabilizing on Thursday morning. Following its recent setback to a multi-week low, the precious metal is trading firmer again on international markets. Spot gold currently changes hands at around $4,537 per troy ounce, equivalent to roughly €3,914 per ounce. With this move, the gold price extends the recovery that began after the multi-week low of May 19, when, according to CNBC, spot gold fell more than 2% to $4,474 per ounce, hitting its lowest price since March 30. The metal has thus given up substantial ground since its all-time high of $5,602.22 per troy ounce on January 28, 2026. The correction has been driven primarily by the Iran conflict that erupted in late February. Contrary to what many market participants expected, the geopolitical shock did not act as a classic safe-haven trigger. Instead, the prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz produced an oil-price shock that, in turn, fueled inflation concerns. Gold has fallen about 12% since the Iran conflict began, weighed down by a stronger U.S. dollar, higher Treasury yields and reduced expectations for Fed rate cuts. ING's Manthey: $5,000 by Year-End Realistic Despite these headwinds, the medium-term outlook for the gold price remains constructive. Ewa Manthey, Commodities Strategist at ING, projects prices to reach $5,000/oz by year-end , supported by central bank demand and improving ETF flows. According to Manthey, the recent decline mainly reflects temporary macro headwinds — higher oil prices, a firmer U.S. dollar, and elevated real yields. Once the war comes to a conclusion, gold's underlying support should reassert itself, Manthey told deVere Insights . Over the coming months, the ING expert sees around six per cent upside as realistic. ING is not alone in its bullish stance: A recent Reuters poll of 31 metals analysts found a median forecast of $4,916 for 2026. Goldman Sachs is even more optimistic — the commodities team led by Daan Struyven expects gold to climb to $5,400 per troy ounce by the end of 2026. Central Banks and ETF Inflows as Key Drivers Two pillars underpin the bullish outlook. First, central banks worldwide are sticking with their buying strategy: The People's Bank of China added 8 tonnes to official gold reserves in April, the highest single-month acquisition in fifteen months. At a recent Goldman Sachs central bank conference, around 70 percent of polled central banks said they expect rising gold reserves globally over the next twelve months — and roughly the same share expect the gold price to settle above $5,000 within a year. Second, listed gold ETFs are seeing fresh inflows despite rising inflation concerns. Physical demand in Asia also remains robust: Premiums in Shanghai held positive against London spot throughout Tuesday's selloff, underscoring that the world's largest physical gold market absorbed supply at lower prices. In the days ahead, investors will focus on the U.S. flash PMI and weekly initial jobless claims, both expected on May 22, 2026 — weaker readings would typically feed into expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. Should the data disappoint, the gold price could accelerate its move higher. Source： https://goldinvest.de/en/gold-price-ing-sees-usd5-000-mark-within-reach-by-year-end

May 18, 2026 In April, the Chinese gold market presented itself as a fascinating two-tiered society: while physical consumption at the grassroots level cooled noticeably, institutional investors and the government continued to pour billions into the precious metal undeterred. A market is emerging that is decoupling itself from short-term price fluctuations and is instead dominated by hard-nosed strategic purchases. Geopolitics keeps the price in a sideways stranglehold In terms of price, gold largely treaded water in April. The LBMA Gold Price PM recorded a marginal gain of 0.1%, while the Shanghai Gold Benchmark Price PM fell by 0.4%. Geopolitical ups and downs shaped the picture: An initial easing of tensions in the Middle East pushed bond yields lower and initially supported the precious metal. Shortly thereafter, new uncertainties surrounding the Strait of Hormuz drove up oil prices, dampened hopes for rapid U.S. interest rate cuts, and took the wind out of gold’s sails. Yet while the price stabilized, massive transactions were taking place behind the scenes. The driving forces: ETFs, the central bank, and imports Despite burgeoning competition from a resurgent Chinese stock market, financial investors and the central bank continued their accumulation unabated. The figures from the World Gold Council speak for themselves: ETFs on a record-breaking streak: For the eighth consecutive month, Chinese gold ETFs recorded inflows—specifically 3.5 billion renminbi (498 million USD). Holdings rose by 3 tons to a new month-end high of 301 tons. Assets under management thus climbed to 306 billion renminbi (45 billion USD). PBoC buys relentlessly: The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) increased its gold reserves by another 8 tons in April, bringing the total to 2,322 tons. It was the 18th consecutive monthly purchase and the largest since December 2024. Gold now accounts for 9% of total foreign exchange reserves (USD 3.8 trillion). Massive Q1 imports: Net imports underscore the massive appetite for the metal. In March, these rose to 143 tons (+49% month-over-month). The first quarter closed at 316 tons—a massive jump of 182% from the previous quarter and 333% year-over-year. Sluggish consumption and declining trading volumes On the flip side, there is a noticeable slowdown in physical wholesale trading, which coincides exactly with the start of the traditionally weaker seasonal phase in the second quarter. Gold withdrawals from the Shanghai Gold Exchange fell by 23% month-over-month in April to 103 tons. However, the 33% year-over-year decline is significantly mitigated by the fact that April 2025 marked the highest demand since 2018. The trend is nonetheless unmistakable: Chinese consumers are currently preferring to channel their capital into experiences and travel rather than traditional jewelry. While there was some light restocking ahead of the May 1 holidays, the major surge failed to materialize. Even physical bullion buyers have recently hesitated, lured by the renewed appeal of the domestic stock market. This caution was also evident in the futures market. Trading volume on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell by 31% to 307 tons per day. However, the fact that this figure remains significantly above the five-year average of 265 tons per day demonstrates the market’s underlying strength. Outlook: The market remains divided This two-pronged picture is likely to persist in the coming months. Demand for jewelry and bullion is expected to remain weak during the seasonal lull, especially if the stock market remains strong as a competitor for capital. However, strategic and financial demand via ETFs and the central bank forms a massive foundation that cements China’s position as an indispensable anchor in the global gold sector. Source： https://goldinvest.de/en/china-s-gold-market-why-major-investors-and-the-central-bank-are-buying-up-massively-despite

Published: May 07, 2026 - 2:28 AM Updated: May 07, 2026 - 2:41 AM (Kitco News) - The gold market is seeing some renewed momentum, with prices testing new resistance at $4,700 an ounce. While it still has some way to go to regain key price levels, one investment bank expects prices to eventually move higher. In her latest precious metals note, Amy Gower, Morgan Stanley Research’s Metals & Mining Commodity Strategist at Morgan Stanley, reiterated her call for gold prices to end the year around $5,200 an ounce, up roughly 10% from current prices. Gower added that she is not surprised gold has struggled in recent months despite heightened geopolitical uncertainty from the ongoing war in Iran. “With the conflict triggering an energy supply shock that has reduced hopes for lower U.S. interest rates, it is not surprising that gold has struggled to work as a safe haven this time,” said Amy Gower, Morgan Stanley Research’s Metals & Mining Commodity Strategist. “ Gold ’s sensitivity to monetary policy has taken over as the key price driver. This has overshadowed its safe-haven status and reduced its effectiveness as a hedge against both geopolitical and inflation risks. Gold prices reflect not just the impact of a particular event but, more importantly, the policy response that follows.” High oil prices, driving inflation pressures, are forcing the Federal Reserve to reevaluate its easing policy stance and, as a result, markets have started to price out rate cuts this year. However, Morgan Stanley is still betting on at least one rate cut this year, which will support higher gold prices. “ Gold is likely to remain sensitive to real yields, but we see room for further upside,” Gower said. Morgan Stanley sees one rate cut in January followed by another rate cut in March 2027. “This should benefit gold, with ETF purchasing decisions particularly sensitive to policy signals and gold now realigning with real rates,” Gower said. As indicated by the current market volatility, gold ’s future depends heavily on what happens with the conflict in the Middle East. Overnight, President Donald Trump said that great progress is being made toward a lasting peace agreement. Analysts have said that if the crisis ends soon, the global economy should be able to recover from the current energy supply crisis. However, Gower added that the longer the conflict continues, the greater the risks are for gold. “ Gold prices may suffer if markets begin to anticipate prolonged rate holds or even hikes,” Gower warned. “At the same time, upside in a resolution scenario could be limited, as already elevated prices may constrain demand from ETFs, central banks and consumers.” Source： https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-05-06/morgan-stanley-sees-gold-prices-climbing-5200-despite-geopolitical

[SMM Morning Meeting Minutes: Driven by Macro Factors, LME Zinc Rose to Record a Three-Day Winning Streak] Overnight, LME zinc opened at $3,397.5/mt. Early in the session, LME zinc experienced small fluctuations downward to a low of $3,392.50/mt. Subsequently, bulls increased open interest to push prices to fluctuate upward, reaching a high of $3,461.00/mt. Late in the session, LME zinc pulled back slightly, ultimately closing higher at $3,447.00/mt, up $37.5/mt, a gain of 1.10%. Trading volume increased to 87,481 lots, and open interest increased by 892 lots to 237,000 lots.

The performance of the gold price in March surprised many investors, as the precious metal recorded significant price declines despite geopolitical escalations.

Tuesday, 28/04/2026 | 17:51 GMT+8 by Damian Chmiel Gold falls 3% to $4,620/oz on Tuesday, April 28, 2026, testing three-week lows as Fed hawkish hold lifts dollar and Treasury yields. XAU chart shows $4,300 as the bull-bear line and a weekly close below targets $3,400 on a 100% Fibonacci extension, a 26% drop. JPMorgan still targets $6,300 by year-end and Goldman Sachs holds $5,400, calling the March correction a positioning unwind. Gold traded at $4,620 per ounce on Tuesday, April 28, 2026, falling for a second straight session and testing three-week lows as a hawkish Federal Reserve hold lifted the dollar and pushed Treasury yields back toward 4.4%. The metal has now lost close to 3% on the week, rejected the upper boundary of the multi-month consolidation defined by the January 28 record close at $5,400, and slipped back below the 50-day EMA. With the FOMC decision Wednesday, U.S. Q1 GDP later in the week, and the Strait of Hormuz still partially closed, why is gold falling has become the most-asked question in the precious metals complex. Follow me on X for real-time market analysis: @ChmielDk . Why Gold Price Is Going Down Today? Dollar, Yields, Hawkish Fed Hold The pullback is more about real yields than tail risk. The dollar index has held above 98.5, ten-year Treasury yields are running between 4.3% and 4.4%, and the CME FedWatch tool puts the probability of an unchanged rate at Wednesday's FOMC meeting at 99.5%. Each of those signals raises the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset. Bas Kooijman, CEO and Asset Manager of DHF Capital S.A., framed the macro tape this way: "Gold fell to multi-week lows on Tuesday, pressured by a firm US dollar and rising Treasury yields." How High Can Gold Go? UBP Rebuilds Bullion Positions and Reaffirms $6,000 Gold Price Prediction for 2026 Why Gold Is Surging With Silver and Why Experts Predict $7,000 Price in 2026 Why Gold Is Going Up? Goldman Gold Price Prediction Sees $5,400 as XAU Rebounds Kooijman added that prolonged disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz are pushing energy prices higher, reinforcing inflation concerns and feeding back into yields, with gold-backed ETFs flipping to outflows last week after three weeks of inflows. Linh Tran, Market Analyst at XS.com, sees a controlled distribution rather than a panic flush: "After reaching a peak near 4,900 USD/oz, gold has entered a relatively deep corrective phase, pulling back toward the 4,700 area. However, this decline has not been characterized by panic selling, but rather by a controlled sequence of losses." Tran's read fits the daily chart, where lower closes have been measured rather than capitulatory. The structural drivers pulling gold lower this week: Dollar index above 98.5, sustained for the third straight session Ten-year Treasury yields back at 4.3-4.4%, lifting real yields CME FedWatch pricing 99.5% probability of an unchanged FOMC at 3.50-3.75% Gold ETF flows turned negative last week after three weeks of inflows Strait of Hormuz disruption keeping oil bid and the rate-cut path further out ETF Outflows and the Strait of Hormuz Premium The flow picture has shifted decisively in the past week. Last week's ETF outflows, the first since early April, broke a three-week inflow streak. The reversal coincided with West Texas Intermediate climbing back above $100 per barrel and 25 commercial vessels being redirected away from Iranian ports over the weekend. That oil-yields feedback loop has now become gold's dominant short-term driver. Higher oil keeps inflation expectations elevated; elevated inflation expectations keep the Fed on hold; a Fed on hold keeps real yields elevated; elevated real yields keep gold under pressure even as the geopolitical backdrop, in classical terms, should support it. As I wrote in my March crash analysis , the same paradox crushed gold roughly 15% in March 2026. Key flow and physical market data points entering the FOMC week: Spot XAU/USD trades roughly 18% below the $5,595 January 29 all-time high Western ETF outflows resumed last week, snapping a three-week inflow streak WTI crude back above $100 per barrel on Strait of Hormuz disruption Central bank buying still running near 60 tonnes per month, per Goldman Sachs Gold Technical Analysis: The $4,300 Bull-Bear Line My chart shows the same picture that has defined gold since late January: a wide consolidation channel between $5,400 at the top and the $4,300 to $4,400 zone at the bottom. The upper bound is the January 28 record close, retested without breaking on March 2. The lower bound is fixed by two anchors, the October 2025 highs at around $4,360 and the panic lows from the week of March 23-27, where price briefly tagged the 200-day EMA at $4,200. In 15 years on the precious metals beat at FinanceMagnates.com, documented across my analyst page , I have watched gold violate multi-month consolidation channels twice, both times with the kind of momentum visible on this week's chart. Tuesday's session moved decisively away from the 50-day EMA, which now sits as resistance overhead, and the rejection at the channel top is the cleanest sell signal the daily chart has produced since my March 25 reversal call at the 200 EMA played out. A breakout up from this range opens price discovery and a run at fresh all-time highs above $5,600. A breakout down is what concerns me. Below $4,300, my Fibonacci extension based on the full 2024-2026 trend projects 100% extension at $3,400, which lines up almost exactly with the April 2025 highs that capped price for four straight months before the September acceleration. From the current $4,620 level, that scenario implies a 26% drop, in line with the bearish framework I detailed in my previous analysis . Gold price technical analysis. Source: Tradingview.com Until $4,300 breaks on a weekly close, this is consolidation, not a confirmed downtrend. Below $4,300, my chart has very little technical support before $3,400. Level Type Notes $5,400 Resistance / Channel top January 28 record close, retested March 2 $4,800 Resistance / 50-day EMA Lost on this week's break $4,620 Current spot Tuesday, April 28, 2026 $4,360 Support / October 2025 highs Lower bound of multi-month range $4,200 Support / 200-day EMA Tested briefly during March 23 panic $3,400 Extension target April 2025 highs and 100% Fibo extension Gold Price Predictions 2026: How Low Can Gold Go? The institutional band remains wide and stays bullish even after the spring drawdown. JPMorgan Global Research holds a $6,300 year-end 2026 target, with strategist Greg Shearer projecting average quarterly investor and central bank demand of around 585 tonnes; my reading is that the call needs another credible Fed pivot to play out before year-end. Goldman Sachs sticks with $5,400, framing the March selloff as a leveraged-positioning unwind rather than a fundamental break, and on the chart that view aligns with the consolidation thesis as long as $4,300 holds. UBS sees $5,200 by June and $5,900 by late 2026, but its short-term cut explicitly cited stronger dollar and oil pressure, which is the exact tape gold is trading right now. Wells Fargo at $6,100 to $6,300 and Deutsche Bank at $6,000 round out the bullish institutional cluster, all anchored on the same fiscal-debasement and central-bank-buying thesis that the FinanceMagnates.com report on UBP rebuilding bullion positions detailed earlier this month. The Reuters poll of 30 analysts has settled at a $4,746 median for 2026, almost on top of current spot, suggesting the consensus has already absorbed the bearish leg. The same complex dynamic is playing out across the silver leg of the precious metals trade , where every move in gold is being amplified. Source Target Notes JPMorgan $6,300 Year-end 2026, 585 tonnes/quarter demand assumption UBS (long) $5,900 Late 2026 target, $5,200 short-term by June Wells Fargo $6,100-6,300 Raised from $4,500-$4,700 in February 2026 Deutsche Bank $6,000 Reiterated by Michael Hsueh, Head of Metals Research Goldman Sachs $5,400 Year-end, base case excludes new buyer wave Reuters poll $4,746 Median of 30 analysts for 2026 My TA (bear) $3,400 Activated only on weekly close below $4,300 FAQ, Gold Price Analysis Why is gold falling today? Gold is falling on April 28, 2026, because the U.S. dollar index is above 98.5, ten-year Treasury yields are at 4.3% to 4.4%, and CME FedWatch shows a 99.5% probability the Federal Reserve holds rates at 3.50% to 3.75% on Wednesday. Higher real yields raise the opportunity cost of a non-yielding asset, and last week's ETF outflows reinforced the move. How low can gold go in 2026? Based on my technical analysis, gold's bull-bear line is $4,300. A weekly close below activates a 100% Fibonacci extension at $3,400, anchored by the April 2025 highs that capped price for four straight months. That implies a 26% drop from current levels. Above $4,300, the metal stays inside its multi-month consolidation rather than a confirmed downtrend. Will gold crash below $4,000? A close below $4,300 on the weekly chart is the trigger I am watching for a sustained move under $4,000. The 200-day EMA sits at $4,200, briefly tagged during the March 23 panic. Without that level breaking on closing basis, talk of a crash is premature. Above $4,300, the structural bull thesis from JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs remains intact. What is the 200-day EMA on gold? The 200-day EMA on gold sits at approximately $4,200 per ounce as of April 28, 2026. The level was last tested during the panic session of March 23, when intraday price briefly touched the average before reversing higher. The 200 EMA has acted as the definitive bull-bear boundary for gold since the metal first cleared $4,000 in October 2025. Should I buy gold now? This article is not investment advice. From a chart perspective, gold trades inside a wide consolidation between $4,300 support and $5,400 resistance. Risk-managed entries become clearer only after the FOMC decision and the response at $4,300. JPMorgan targets $6,300 and Goldman Sachs targets $5,400 for year-end 2026, while my chart's bear scenario warns of $3,400 if support breaks. Source： https://www.financemagnates.com/trending/why-is-gold-falling-gold-price-risk-crash-to-3400/