As supply and demand for construction steel were not fully matched across different markets, regional supply-demand mismatches created price differentiation, which in turn drove the cross-regional circulation of steel resources. When the regional price spread gradient was appropriate, regions with surplus construction steel capacity and production often shipped excess resources out, thereby rebalancing construction steel resources across regions.

Gold is doing the opposite of what it should. The metal is falling for a reason most investors did not see coming. Wall Street's biggest banks have not changed their outlook. Here is why that matters.

This week, total rebar inventory stood at 8.3525 million mt, up 57,800 mt WoW, or 0.7% (previously +3.46%). Compared with the same period of the lunar calendar last year, it increased by 281,200 mt, or 3.48% (previously +4.58%).

[Price Review] During the week, silver prices remained in the doldrums. In China, the Ag (T+D) contract on the Shanghai Gold Exchange broke below the support level of 18,000 yuan/kg, while LBMA silver prices kept probing lower after falling below $75/oz. From a macro perspective, escalating geopolitical conflict in the Middle East pushed oil prices to repeated new highs, while intensifying inflation concerns significantly cooled expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts and delayed the timing of the first cut to year-end. The simultaneous strength in the US dollar index and US Treasury yields became the core factors suppressing silver prices. On Wednesday local time, the US Fed announced that it would keep interest rates unchanged. In the statement released that day, it noted that the impact of the Middle East situation on the US economy remained uncertain and that uncertainty surrounding the US economic outlook was still elevated. In addition, speculative demand and ETF holdings continued to decline, and market sentiment kept cooling. As for the gold/silver ratio, because silver posted a deeper decline, the ratio continued to rise. As of March 18, the LBMA gold/silver ratio had climbed to 63, a recent high. [Important Data] Bullish: US preliminary March one-year inflation expectations came in at 3.4%, above expectations and unchanged from the previous reading Bearish: US API crude oil inventory for the week ended March 13 increased by 6.556 million barrels, above expectations and the previous reading US EIA crude oil inventory for the week ended March 13 increased by 6.156 million barrels, above expectations and the previous reading Data and macro releases to watch next week include: Continued hawkishness from the US Fed, the ECB rate decision, US inflation/employment data, COMEX silver delivery, together with the Boao Forum and geopolitical risks On March 19, the FOMC kept rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%, raised its 2026 PCE forecast to 2.7%, and expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts cooled sharply. US-Iran Situation: As of March 19, the military strikes by the US and Israel against Iran had entered their 19th day, with high-intensity confrontation, no sign of a ceasefire, and the conflict spreading to multiple Gulf countries. In terms of the current impact on precious metals, financial suppression outweighed safe-haven demand. Against the backdrop of surging inflation expectations, the US dollar and US Treasury yields continued to rise, the timing of US Fed interest rate cuts was delayed, and silver prices were suppressed. [Price Forecast] Silver prices are expected to maintain a fluctuating trend in the doldrums amid the interplay between macro disruptions and fundamentals. On the macro front, caution is still warranted over the risk of continued US dollar strength and heightened volatility from any further escalation in the US-Iran conflict. On the fundamentals side, as PV export rush orders gradually approached their end, rigid demand for raw material procurement by silver nitrate enterprises declined in late March, weakening support from industrial demand. In China's spot market, as investment demand and rigid industrial demand softened, coupled with replenishment from imported silver ingots, circulating supply of silver ingots in the spot market became ample, and suppliers generally lowered spot premium quotes to facilitate transactions. The abnormally high spot premiums in China's spot market will come to an end. At the same time, profitability on imported silver ingots will also decline sharply, and spot premium quotes in actual spot silver ingot transactions are expected to return to rational levels.

Middle East tensions have sparked a massive steel trade "mismatch." Iran's blocked exports created a 2.3-million-ton billet vacuum in Southeast Asia, while the Red Sea crisis stalled China's flat steel shipments to the Gulf. Consequently, China and India are rapidly absorbing SEA's diverted billet orders. SMM projects that blocked flat steel returning to China's domestic market, combined with surging overseas billet demand, will accelerate the narrowing of the domestic HRC-rebar spread.

Gold is a widely known safe-haven asset and tends to benefit during geopolitical turmoil, but the metal has remained largely range-bound amid the latest Middle East conflict involving Iran, the United States and Israel.

During the survey period (March 10–March 16), the capacity utilization rate of rebar and wire rod rolling lines in the Central China region increased to varying degrees.

[SMM Analysis] Freight Rates Surge, Making Deals Difficult for Steel Expor ters Affected by the US-Iran conflict, tight energy supply and sharply higher fuel costs, compounded by exchange rate fluctuations, have continuously pushed up China's export offers in recent days. Compared with the beginning of the month (March 6), SMM HRC prices have been raised by $9/mt; galvanizing prices rose by $11/mt; CRC rose by $5/mt; billet rose by $6/mt; and rebar rose by $6/mt. However, looking back at market transaction performance, deals weakened again recently. According to the SMM survey, ocean freight rates surged sharply, with current freight to the Middle East as high as $50-60. Most outside China clients remained on the sidelines; shipowners also refused to commit tonnage while waiting for the market to stabilize. For China exporters, there were offers but no market, making shipments difficult. Meanwhile, market sources said Hadeed, the GCC's only flat steel producer, raised its May hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices, still related to shipping restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz. HRC cargoes previously booked from China and other origins were also being redirected to the west coast, mainly heading to Jeddah Port, bringing high inland transportation costs. As for global steel prices, in India, in addition to rising raw material costs and rupee depreciation, a sudden LNG energy shortage further pushed up production costs, forcing steel mills to maintain a strong willingness to hold prices firm despite the traditional domestic off-season and blocked exports. In the Southeast Asian market, price increases were accepted entirely passively, mainly due to the rigid pass-through of high ocean freight rates by overseas suppliers. Although Southeast Asian buyers hesitated to take orders, they had no choice but to passively accept the increases against the backdrop of persistently high geopolitical logistics costs. At the same time, CIS export offers also rose significantly, benefiting from the intensifying geopolitical conflict in the Middle East and the resulting short-term global supply tightens. In the Middle East market, meanwhile, as war tensions continued to escalate, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz completely disrupted transportation, while freight rates and delivery uncertainty pushed the sheets & plates import markets in the UAE and Saudi Arabia into a complete standstill. Copyright and Intellectual Property Statement: This report is independently created or compiled by SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "SMM"), and SMM legally enjoys complete copyright and related intellectual property rights. The copyright, trademark rights, domain name rights, commercial data information property rights, and other related intellectual property rights of all content contained in this report (including but not limited to information, articles, data, charts, pictures, audio, video, logos, advertisements, trademarks, trade names, domain names, layout designs, etc.) are owned or held by SMM or its related right holders. The above rights are strictly protected by relevant laws and regulations of the People's Republic of China, such as the Copyright Law of the People's Republic of China, the Trademark Law of the People's Republic of China, and the Anti-Unfair Competition Law of the People's Republic of China, as well as applicable international treaties. Without prior written authorization from SMM, no institution or individual may: 1. Use all or part of this report in any form (including but not limited to reprinting, modifying, selling, transferring, displaying, translating, compiling, disseminating); 2. Disclose the content of this report to any third party; 3. License or authorize any third party to use the content of this report; 4. For any unauthorized use, SMM will legally pursue the legal responsibilities of the infringer, demanding that they bear legal responsibilities including but not limited to contractual breach liability, returning unjust enrichment, and compensating for direct and indirect economic losses. Data Source Statement: (Except for publicly available information, other data in this report are derived from publicly available information (including but not limited to industry news, seminars, exhibitions, corporate financial reports, brokerage reports, data from the National Bureau of Statistics, customs import and export data, various data published by major associations and institutions, etc.), market exchanges, and comprehensive analysis and reasonable inferences made by the research team based on SMM's internal database models. This information is for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice. SMM reserves the final interpretation right of the terms in this statement and the right to adjust and modify the content of the statement according to actual circumstances.

The total trading volume of Shanghai-Shenzhen Stock Connect today was RMB 143.208 billion, with China Merchants Bank and CATL ranking first in terms of individual stock trading volume on the Shanghai Stock Connect and Shenzhen Stock Connect, respectively. In terms of the most-traded contract's open interest by sector, the non-bank financial sector saw the highest net inflow of open interest. In terms of ETF trading volume, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange Innovative Drug ETF (513120) ranked first. In terms of the most-traded futures contracts' open interest, the number of short positions reduced in the IC contract exceeded that of long positions. On the Dragon Tiger List, Anglikang received RMB 235 million in purchases from institutions; Limin Chemical received RMB 105 million in purchases from institutions; Royal Silver was sold off by institutions for RMB 115 million; China Superconductor was sold off by institutions for over RMB 60 million; Junyao Health was sold off by institutions for over RMB 60 million; Chutianlong received over RMB 90 million in purchases from the Yichang Yanjiang Avenue Business Department of Guotai Haitong Securities; Nanhua Futures was sold off by two quantitative trading seats. I. Top 10 Stocks by Trading Volume on Shanghai-Shenzhen Stock Connect Today, the total trading volume on the Shanghai Stock Connect was RMB 68.229 billion, while that on the Shenzhen Stock Connect was RMB 74.979 billion. Among the top 10 stocks by trading volume on the Shanghai Stock Connect, China Merchants Bank ranked first; Kweichow Moutai and JAC ranked second and third, respectively. Among the top 10 stocks by trading volume on the Shenzhen Stock Connect, CATL ranked first; BYD and East Money ranked second and third, respectively. II. Main Large-Order Open Interest by Sector and Individual Stocks In terms of sector performance, rare earth permanent magnets, gaming, auto parts, and securities sectors led the gains, while controlled nuclear fusion, other power supply equipment, biological vaccines, and communication services sectors led the losses. In terms of the most-traded sector's open interest monitoring data, the non-bank financial sector saw the highest net inflow of open interest. In terms of sector open interest outflows, the pharmaceutical sector saw the highest net outflow of open interest. In terms of the most-traded individual stock's open interest monitoring data, the sectors of the top 10 stocks with net inflows of open interest were relatively scattered, with N-Insta360 ranking first in terms of net inflows. The sectors of the top 10 stocks with net outflows of open interest were relatively scattered, with Lianhe Tech ranking first in terms of net outflows. III. ETF Trading Volume Among the top 10 ETFs by trading volume, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange Innovative Drug ETF (513120) ranked first, while the CSI 300 ETF (510300) ranked second. Among the top 10 ETFs by MoM growth in trading volume, the Germany ETF (159561) ranked first with an 110% MoM increase in trading volume from yesterday; two rare earth ETFs ranked second and third, with the Rare Earth ETF Fund (516150) ranking second with a 93% MoM increase in trading volume. IV. Most-Traded Futures Contracts' Open Interest Among the most-traded contracts of the four major stock index futures, both longs and shorts reduced their positions in the IH, IC, and IM contracts, with longs reducing more positions in the IH and IM contracts and shorts reducing slightly more positions in the IC contract; both longs and shorts increased their positions in the IF contract, with shorts increasing more positions. V. Dragon Tiger List 1. Institutions Today, the activity level of institutions on the Dragon Tiger List was moderate. On the buying side, Angelic, a concept stock of innovative drugs, was bought by institutions for 235 million yuan; Limin Chemical, a pesticide stock, was bought by institutions for 105 million yuan. On the selling side, Yuyin, a concept stock of stablecoins, was sold by institutions for 115 million yuan; Zhongchao Holding, a nuclear power stock, was sold by institutions for over 60 million yuan; Junyao Health, a dairy stock, was sold by institutions for over 60 million yuan. 2. Retail Investors The activity level of first-tier retail investors declined significantly. Baili Electric, a concept stock of controllable nuclear fusion, was sold by three first-tier retail investor seats for a total of over 200 million yuan, and the stock was also sold by a seat of Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect for over 100 million yuan; Chutian Dragon, a concept stock of stablecoins, was bought by the Yichang Yanjiang Avenue Business Department of Guotai Haitong Securities for over 90 million yuan. The activity level of quantitative funds was moderate. Baili Electric was sold by two quantitative seats; Nanhua Futures was sold by two quantitative seats.

[PV ETF Funds Rise: PV Industry Chain May Usher in a New Round of Favorable Conditions] As of June 11, 2025, the CSI Photovoltaic Industry Index (931151) surged by 1.28%, with individual stocks of some PV enterprises also following suit. The PV ETF Fund (159863) rose by 0.93%, with the latest quote at 0.43 yuan. By implementing strategies such as industry self-regulation through production restrictions and accelerating the elimination of outdated capacity, the PV industry chain is gradually optimizing its supply-demand pattern. The PV industry, particularly top-tier enterprises, has also realized that "short-term profit-chasing and capacity hoarding are not viable strategies," and accelerating capacity exits and implementing "anti-cut-throat competition" have gradually become industry consensus. It is expected that the key window period for PV supply-side reform will be from the second half of this year to the first quarter of next year. Despite the overall valuation of the PV sector remaining at historically low levels, it will possess higher allocation space and investment value in the future, and the PV industry chain is expected to usher in a new round of favorable conditions.