Gold surged during the 12-day war with Iran last year and then gave up its gains when a ceasefire was announced. But, two weeks into the latest conflict, its price remains largely unmoved.

Silver prices steadied into the end of the week, with the metal recovering modestly after the sharp swings seen earlier in March.

Silver is no longer just a “precious metal”, it has become the primary financial barometer for global instability.

Despite recent outflows, expert says decade-long gold surge still has legs.

A month ago, Caixin reported that as Trump's erratic tariff policies last month triggered a wave of selling of US assets, a new wave of "de-dollarization" was gaining momentum in Asia. Now, an increasing number of market participants are clearly unable to ignore the "rise" of this trend... On May 26, ASEAN committed in its newly released "Strategic Plan for the ASEAN Economic Community 2026-2030" to promoting the use of local currencies in trade and investment, and proposed measures such as expanding the use of local currencies for settlement and strengthening regional payment connectivity to mitigate the impact of exchange rate fluctuations. Lin Li, Head of Asia Global Markets Research at Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (MUFG), told the media that as Asian economies seek to reduce their reliance on the US dollar, particularly by using their own currencies as a medium of exchange to reduce foreign exchange risks, the trend of de-dollarization is strengthening. Although de-dollarization itself is not a new phenomenon, recent developments may have undergone a qualitative change. Investors and officials are beginning to recognize that, even if the US dollar has not been openly weaponized in trade negotiations, it can and has been used as a "bargaining chip." Mitul Kotecha, Head of Asia FX and Emerging Markets Macro Strategy at Barclays, said that this has prompted a reevaluation of investment portfolios that were previously heavily overweight in the US dollar. "Countries are focusing on the fact that the US dollar has been and can be used as a weapon in trade, direct sanctions, and other areas... I think this is the real change over the past few months," he said. Two Forces Accelerating the Evolution A recent report by Bank of America pointed out that the trend of ASEAN moving away from the US dollar is intensifying, driven by two main forces: ① Individuals and businesses are gradually starting to convert their US dollar savings back into local currencies; ② Large investors are beginning to hedge foreign investments more actively. Abhay Gupta, Asia Fixed Income and FX Strategist at Bank of America, said, "The de-dollarization process in ASEAN may accelerate, primarily through the conversion of foreign exchange deposits accumulated since 2022." In addition to ASEAN, BRICS countries, including India and China, are also actively developing and promoting their own payment systems to bypass traditional Western payment systems like SWIFT and reduce reliance on the US dollar. China has also been promoting the use of the yuan for bilateral trade settlement. Barclays' Kotecha pointed out that de-dollarization is a "continuous, slow process," but the gradual decline of the US dollar's status can be witnessed in both central bank reserve shares and trade settlement shares. He specifically mentioned the substantial overseas assets held by countries such as Singapore, South Korea, and China, which have significant potential for repatriating foreign exchange earnings. Andy Ji, Asia FX and Rates Analyst at ITC Markets, shares this sentiment. He points out that economies most reliant on trade will experience a more pronounced decline in demand for the US dollar. He specifically mentioned the economies within the 10+3 cooperation mechanism, which includes China, Japan, South Korea, and the 10 ASEAN member states. As of November last year, over 80% of trade in this region was still denominated in US dollars. Nomura Securities has observed a new trend: Asian investors are strengthening their hedging against US dollar exposure. Nomura notes that as Asian investors increasingly hedge against US dollar risks, a trend of de-dollarization is also emerging. Foreign exchange hedging refers to investors protecting themselves from significant currency value fluctuations by locking in exchange rates to avoid losses in the event of unexpected weakening or strengthening of the US dollar. Craig Chan, Global Head of FX Strategy at Nomura Securities, stated, "Some of the currencies that have recently performed strongly include the Japanese yen, South Korean won, and New Taiwan dollar." He observed that a considerable portion of foreign exchange hedging transactions come from institutional investors such as life insurance companies, pension funds, and hedge funds. According to Nomura Securities, the hedging ratio of Japanese life insurance companies was originally around 44%. In April and May, this figure rose to around 48%. Nomura Securities estimates that the hedging ratio of life insurance companies in Taiwan, China, is around 70%. When investors hedge against US dollar risks, they sell US dollars and buy local or other currencies, which increases demand for the US dollar and causes non-US currencies to appreciate against the US dollar. Is a structural shift underway? Clearly, the rise of this de-dollarization trend has once again raised a "perennial" question: Is this merely a phase of temporary reduction in US dollar holdings, or a more drastic structural shift? In fact, although similar shifts are more pronounced in Asia, the world is actually reducing its reliance on the US dollar—the share of the US dollar in global foreign exchange reserves has declined from over 70% in 2000 to 57.8% in 2024. Recently, due to uncertainties surrounding a series of decisions by the Trump administration, the US dollar has experienced a significant decline this year, particularly in April. Since the beginning of this year, the US dollar index has fallen by more than 8%, marking the worst performance in the first five months of the year in history, according to Dow Jones Market Data. However, some industry observers also state that despite many countries reducing their reliance on the US dollar, it remains challenging to replace the US dollar as the primary reserve currency. Cedric Chehab, chief economist at BMI, said that, for now, this may still be merely cyclical. He pointed out that it could only transform into a structural trend if the US implements sanctions more aggressively, prompting central banks to be wary of holding excessive US dollars, or if governments mandate pension funds to increase their holdings of domestic assets. Of course, the first threat mentioned by Chehab may have already occurred to some extent. What undoubtedly concerns many foreign entities the most is undoubtedly "Clause 899" in Trump's latest tax reform bill. If approved by Congress, this clause would allow the US to impose additional taxes on companies and investors from countries it deems to be implementing punitive tax policies. George Saravelos, global head of FX research at Deutsche Bank, said that this would mark the formal incorporation of the weaponization of US capital markets into law. Francesco Pesole, FX strategist at ING, pointed out that "Trump's erratic trade policy decisions and the significant depreciation of the US dollar may be encouraging a faster shift towards other currencies." Peter Kinsella, global head of FX strategy at Union Bancaire Privée, reminded people to distinguish between the weakening of the US dollar and de-dollarization. "The US dollar has gone through multiple cycles of depreciation, yet its hegemony as a reserve currency remains unchanged," he added. Even with reduced exposure, the US dollar's core position in trade invoicing remains solid—over half of global trade was still settled in US dollars in April this year. However, Kinsella also mentioned that, "the long-term declining trend in the US dollar's status as a reserve asset will continue, and I firmly believe that gold will be the biggest beneficiary." According to a report released by the European Central Bank on Wednesday, gold accounted for 20% of global official reserves in 2024, making it the second-largest reserve asset globally, second only to the US dollar at 46%.

On Friday, Eastern Time, the US May non-farm payrolls data came in better than expected, easing market concerns about an economic slowdown and triggering a sharp rally in US stocks. All three major indices rose more than 1%, with the S&P 500 closing above 6,000 for the first time since February, though still more than 2% below its all-time high set in February. At the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.05% to 42,762.87; the S&P 500 rose 1.03% to 6,000.36; and the Nasdaq Composite rose 1.20% to 19,529.95. (Minute-by-minute charts of the three major indices, source: TradingView) All three major indices posted gains for the week, with the S&P 500 up 1.5%, the Dow up 1.2%, and the Nasdaq up 2.2%. Thanks to the recent rebound, all three major indices have turned positive for the year. Data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday showed that non-farm payrolls increased by 139,000 in May, a slowdown from the previous month's figure but higher than market expectations. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.2%. The jobs report was released as other data suggested that US job growth may be slowing amid uncertainty over trade policy. The latest non-farm payrolls data provided a basis for the US Fed to maintain interest rates unchanged this summer. As a result, traders lowered their expectations for interest rate cuts in the coming months. "The non-farm payrolls data came in better than expected, suggesting that the labour market remains healthy despite a slowing growth trend," said Anthony Saglimbene, chief market strategist at Ameriprise. "There is still uncertainty about the inflationary impact of tariffs, which are expected to start showing up in economic data this summer. The market is now waiting to see the real impact of these factors on growth and earnings in the coming quarters. We're essentially back to where we were in February," Saglimbene said. Circle, the "first stablecoin stock," extended its rally, closing up more than 29% on its second day of trading, with cumulative gains of over 247% in two trading days. Performance of Popular Stocks Major tech stocks rose across the board, with Apple up 1.64%, Microsoft up 0.58%, Nvidia up 1.24%, Google up 3.25%, Amazon up 2.72%, Meta up 1.91%, and Tesla up 3.67%. Among popular Chinese ADRs, gains and losses were mixed. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell 0.06%, with Alibaba down 0.48%, JD.com up 0.09%, Pinduoduo up 1.28%, NIO up 0.28%, XPeng Motors down 2.40%, Li Auto up 0.85%, Bilibili up 1.46%, Baidu down 0.05%, NetEase down 1.25%, and Tencent Music up 1.01%. Company News [Tesla Produces 8 Millionth EV at Giga Berlin] On June 6, Tesla announced that its 8 millionth electric vehicle (EV) rolled off the production line at Giga Berlin, with the vehicle being a Model Y. [Lululemon Plunges 20%, Lowers Full-Year Profit Forecast] Athletic apparel brand Lululemon (LULU) closed down 19.80% on Friday, marking its worst single-day performance since March 2020. Lululemon had previously lowered its full-year outlook, projecting Q2 net revenue to be between $2.54 billion and $2.56 billion, falling short of analysts' consensus estimate of $2.57 billion. [Virgin Galactic Announces Potential Resumption of Commercial Spaceflight Services] Virgin Galactic's shares surged over 16% intraday but closed up 2.88%. The company announced that its commercial spaceflight services are expected to resume, signaling a new phase in the restart of its space tourism business. [Fitch Upgrades Uber's Rating to BBB+] Fitch Ratings upgraded Uber's (UBER) long-term issuer default rating (IDR) to "BBB+" and assigned a commercial paper rating of "F1." [Deutsche Bank: Exploring Stablecoin or Tokenized Deposits] In a recent report on Friday, Sabih Behzad, Head of Digital Assets and Currency Transformation at Deutsche Bank, stated that the bank is exploring stablecoins and various forms of tokenized deposits. It is understood that the options being evaluated by Germany's largest bank include issuing its own token or joining industry consortium initiatives, while also exploring the development of its own tokenized deposit solutions for payment purposes. [Switzerland Unveils Banking Reform Proposal; UBS Faces $26 Billion in Additional Capital Requirements] According to the banking reform proposal put forward by the Swiss government, UBS Group will face up to $26 billion in new capital requirements over the next decade. Following months of uncertainty that weighed on the share price of the Zurich-based bank, the Swiss Federal Council announced on Friday that it will require UBS's parent company to fully capitalize its foreign subsidiaries. The Swiss government estimates that this will force UBS to increase capital for its main Swiss operations by up to $23 billion, with the remaining capital to be raised through other measures.

On Monday, Deutsche Bank raised its year-end target for the S&P 500 index from 6,150 points to 6,550 points, citing reduced earnings drag related to tariffs and the resilience of the US economy. "We now believe that the drag from tariffs (on US corporate earnings) is only about one-third of our previous forecast," Deutsche Bank strategists led by Binky Chadha wrote in a report. Nevertheless, Deutsche Bank warned that the current rebound in US stocks could be unstable, and the stock market may experience a pullback if trade tensions resurface. Deutsche Bank also raised its earnings-per-share (EPS) forecast for the S&P 500 index from $240 to $267. Deutsche Bank's new target price is 10.35% higher than the S&P 500 index's latest closing price of 5,935.94 points. The S&P 500 index closed higher on Monday, as investors remained optimistic about trade talks between the US and its trading partners despite the latest threat from US President Trump to double tariffs on imported steel and aluminum. The S&P 500 index rose 24.25 points, or 0.41%, to 5,935.94 points. Driven by factors such as Trump's softening stance on tariffs, strong corporate earnings, and mild inflation data, US stocks staged a strong recovery in May from the decline in April, with the S&P 500 index posting its largest monthly gain since November 2023. Despite the continued uncertainty surrounding the Trump administration's tariff policies, Wall Street investment banks have recently regained confidence in US stocks and have been raising their target prices for the S&P 500 index. Last month, Goldman Sachs and UBS had already taken similar actions. RBC Capital Markets also joined the ranks on Monday. The bank's strategists raised their year-end target for the S&P 500 index from 5,550 points to 5,730 points, believing that market performance is slightly better than expected in early April, though they warned that the future path will remain "bumpy."

In recent weeks, there has been intense debate about the outlook for the copper market in the second half (H2) of 2025.

》[Live] Analysis of Macroeconomics, Power, Infrastructure, Real Estate, and PV Markets; Outlook on Copper and Aluminum Prices; Insights into Cable Technology Trends SMM, May 23: Metal Market: As of the midday close, domestic base metals generally fell. SHFE tin dropped by 0.62%, SHFE zinc remained flat at 22,250 yuan/mt, SHFE aluminum fell by 0.12%, and SHFE nickel dropped by 0.66%. SHFE lead rose by 0.3%, and SHFE copper fell by 0.1%. In addition, alumina fell by 1.98%, lithium carbonate dropped by 1.65%, silicon metal declined by 0.7%, and polysilicon rose by 1.11%. Most ferrous metals series fell, with iron ore dropping by 0.69% and HRC falling by 0.47%. Stainless steel rose slightly, while rebar fell by 0.36%. In terms of coking coal and coke: coking coal fell by 2.81%, and coke dropped by 1.28%. In the overseas metal market, as of 11:43 a.m., LME metals rose across the board. LME copper rose by 0.31%, LME aluminum increased by 0.37%, LME zinc gained 0.54%, LME nickel rose by 0.33%, LME tin increased by 0.38%, and LME lead rose by 0.51%. In precious metals, as of 11:43 a.m., COMEX gold rose by 0.09%, and COMEX silver increased by 0.17%. Domestically, SHFE gold fell by 0.77%, and SHFE silver dropped by 0.52%. As of the midday close, the most-traded contract for the European container shipping index rose by 3.02%, closing at 2,231.2 points. As of 11:43 a.m. on May 23, the midday futures market movements for some contracts were as follows: 》SMM Metal Spot Prices on May 23 Spot and Fundamentals Copper: In terms of inventory, according to SMM's domestic aluminum ingot inventory data, domestic aluminum ingot inventory stood at 557,000 mt on May 23, a destocking of 28,000 mt from Monday. In the short term, the lower arrival of goods in east China is conducive to the rise in premiums and discounts. Follow-up attention should be paid to changes in demand... 》Click for details Macro Front Domestic Aspect: [Ministry of Commerce: Online Sales of Digital Products Grew by 8.4% from January to April; Sales of Smart Robots and Smart Home Systems Rose by 87.6% and 16%, Respectively] The head of the E-commerce Department of the Ministry of Commerce introduced the development of China's e-commerce from January to April 2025. Digital consumption growth accelerated. According to monitoring by the Ministry of Commerce's big data, online sales of digital products increased by 8.4%, with sales of smart robots and smart home systems rising by 87.6% and 16%, respectively. Products under the trade-in policy grew rapidly, with online sales of 15 categories of home appliances and digital products increasing by 11.5%, among which three expanded categories of digital products, including mobile phones, grew by 18.5%. Service consumption led the growth. Driven by factors such as policy support, supply optimization, and holiday economy, the growth of key monitored online service consumption reached 12.1%, with online entertainment and online tourism increasing by 31.9% and 25.4%, respectively. [The central bank injected a net 36 billion yuan into the open market] The central bank conducted 142.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations today, with an operating interest rate of 1.40%, unchanged from the previous rate. As 106.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos matured today, a net injection of 36 billion yuan was achieved. ► On May 23, the central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar in the interbank foreign exchange market was 7.1919 yuan per US dollar. US dollar: As of 11:43, the US dollar index fell by 0.28% to 99.66. Concerns over the deterioration of the US fiscal outlook intensified, leading to a weakening of the US dollar. Tim Baker, an analyst at Deutsche Bank, believes that the market's reaction to rising US fiscal uncertainty may harm the US dollar more than US Treasuries. He stated that when bond prices fall and yields rise sufficiently, domestic investors will buy bonds. However, foreign investors deterred by the expanding US budget deficit will continue to sell the US dollar. Baker said, "As US domestic investors rotate out of the stock market, US Treasuries may eventually receive some support, but the withdrawal of foreign investors will still be negative for the US dollar." (Huitong Finance) Other currencies: Japan's core inflation surged to 3.5% YoY in April, the fastest pace in two years, sparking market expectations of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan. Meanwhile, the persistent expansion of the fiscal deficit has raised concerns among investors about the sustainability of government debt, leading to a surge in yields on 20-year and longer-dated Japanese government bonds to historic highs this week, challenging the market's ability to absorb long-term debt. (Huitong Finance) Macro: Today, data including the revised quarter-on-quarter seasonally adjusted GDP growth rate for Germany in Q1, the revised year-on-year non-seasonally adjusted GDP growth rate for Germany in Q1, the month-on-month seasonally adjusted retail sales growth rate for the UK in April, the month-on-month seasonally adjusted core retail sales growth rate for the UK in April, the revised month-on-month building permits growth rate for the US in April, the revised annualized total building permits for the US in April, the month-on-month retail sales growth rate for Canada in March, the month-on-month core retail sales growth rate for Canada in March, and the annualized total seasonally adjusted new home sales for the US in April will be released. In addition, it is worth noting that: John C. Williams, permanent voting member of the FOMC and President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, will deliver a keynote speech at a seminar on monetary policy implementation; James Bullard, 2025 FOMC voting member and President of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, and Esther George, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, will participate in a fireside chat in Northwest Arkansas hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis to discuss the economy and monetary policy. Crude oil: As of 11:43, crude oil futures all declined, with US crude oil falling by 0.62% and Brent crude oil falling by 0.57%. OPEC may further increase crude oil production, putting pressure on oil prices. It is reported that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, forming the OPEC+ alliance, are discussing whether to significantly increase production again at their meeting on June 1. Delegates attending the meeting said that a 411,000 barrel-per-day increase in July is one of the options under discussion, but no final agreement has been reached. The significant accumulation of US crude oil is also putting pressure on oil prices. According to data from The Tank Tiger, a storage broker, US crude oil storage demand has surged in recent weeks to levels comparable to those during the COVID-19 pandemic, as traders prepare for a significant increase in supply from OPEC and its allies in the coming months. On Friday, the market will focus on data from Baker Hughes on the number of US oil and natural gas drilling rigs, which is seen as an indicator of future supply trends. (Webstock Inc.) Spot Market Overview: ► SMM: Easing of Sino-US Tariffs, Fundamentals Supporting the Market, Copper and Aluminum Prices Expected to Fluctuate Upward [SMM Cable Conference] ► Inventory Hits Recent Low, Suppliers Actively Refuse to Budge on Prices [SMM South China Spot Copper] ► [SMM Nickel Midday Review] Nickel Prices Continue to Weaken on May 23, PBOC Conducts 500 Billion Yuan MLF Operation ► Silver Bottoms Out and Rebounds, Market Focuses on Inflation and Geopolitical Risk Aversion [SMM Weekly Silver Market Review] Midday reviews of other metal spot prices will be updated later. Please refresh to view~

Although the poor results of the 20-year government bond auctions held by Japan and the US within a short span of 48 hours were more isolated incidents—the panic in Japanese bonds stemmed from rumors of the Bank of Japan's tapering, while the sell-off in US bonds was more due to concerns over the loss of the AAA rating, uncontrolled deficits under Trump's tax cut bill, and the ballooning scale of bond issuance... However, it may not be reasonable to argue that the market movements in Japan, the largest overseas "creditor" of the US, are completely unrelated to the fluctuations in US bonds. In fact, in the view of Deutsche Bank, amid the already weak demand for both US and Japanese bonds, there may currently be a fierce competition for chips between the two. George Saravelos, Head of FX Research at Deutsche Bank, stated in a recent report released this week that US Treasuries are currently facing increasing competition from Japanese government bonds, with the rise in JGB yields making them more attractive to local Japanese buyers. Saravelos has noticed a rather unusual phenomenon recently: the divergence between the trend of US bond yields and the yen exchange rate. —Even as US Treasury yields rise, the yen continues to strengthen in the foreign exchange market (the US dollar weakens against the yen). As is well known, from the perspective of the carry trade logic in the foreign exchange market, the trend of US bond yields should typically be synchronized with the trend of the US dollar/yen exchange rate. Saravelos currently views this unusual phenomenon as "the most important market indicator of the acceleration of US fiscal risks," as it suggests that cautious foreign investors are withdrawing funds from the US Treasury market. He pointed out, "We believe this is evidence of declining foreign investor participation in the US Treasury market." Are Japanese bonds "sucking the blood" out of US bonds? It is worth noting that the yields on long-term Japanese government bonds have also been climbing sharply recently. The 30-year JGB yield rose to its highest level since records began in 1999 this week. The demand for the 20-year JGB auction held on Tuesday was the weakest in decades. Some market participants interpret this as a signal of increasing fiscal concerns in Japan, but Saravelos does not agree with this view. Saravelos believes that if there were indeed fiscal risks, the yen should weaken rather than strengthen. As Saravelos pointed out in Deutsche Bank's global macro framework released last week, given Japan's positive net foreign asset position, its fiscal space remains ample. This FX research head believes that the sell-off in Japanese government bonds poses an even greater threat to the US Treasury market: as domestic assets become more attractive to Japanese investors, this will accelerate capital outflows from the US market. "The core logic of our view for the coming months is that the market is increasingly driven by external asset positions, a trend that is exerting dual downward pressure on the US Treasury market and the US dollar." The indicator measuring market concerns over the twin deficits can be reflected by the beta value (slope) of the relationship between the net international investment position (NIIP) and yield in the chart below. This essentially reflects the global market's pricing of fiscal deficits. Historical data shows that this indicator has remained within a stable range since the global financial crisis. Deutsche Bank believes that current market risks are accelerating towards a steeper slope—that is, the widening interest rate differential between the US and the rest of the world, potentially reverting to the pre-2008 market structure. As shown in the chart below: In fact, Japanese bond yields may have already risen to a level high enough to begin attracting overseas investors, including Vanguard and RBC BlueBay Asset Management, while many domestic Japanese institutions may also be accelerating the process of asset repatriation. Japan is the largest overseas "creditor" of US Treasuries, with holdings reaching $1.13 trillion as of March. This is the result of years of ultra-loose monetary policy in Japan, which drove domestic investors to seek higher returns abroad. Now, with long-term Japanese government bond yields also surging to over 3%, the "yield premium" advantage of US Treasuries for Japanese capital is rapidly narrowing. When "Mrs. Watanabe" investors find that the cost-performance of domestic assets is returning, coupled with the dual pressures of deteriorating liquidity and widening credit premiums in the US Treasury market, the wave of Japanese capital withdrawal could become the last straw that breaks the camel's back.