HRC futures first dipped then rallied today. The most-traded contract closed at 3,282, up 0.06% WoW. Spot market side, market quotations showed mixed performance, with overall trading activity being relatively lackluster, though transactions at lower prices were moderate. In terms of supply, the impact from maintenance on hot-rolled production was 106,400 mt this week, down 88,800 mt WoW. Next week, the impact from maintenance on hot-rolled production is expected to be 11.7 mt, up 10,600 mt WoW, with overall supply still on an increasing trend. Demand side, end-user purchasing enthusiasm was unlikely to exceed expectations, with most purchases being need-based at lower prices. Inventory side, mainstream city inventory data was released today. Performance varied across markets, but overall destocking outpaced inventory buildup, and the overall destocking trend is likely to continue. Looking ahead, the US-Iran conflict reportedly entered the final stage of detail finalisation today. Attention should be paid to the impact of subsequent international disruptions on the raw material side. Meanwhile, the conclusion of the US-Iran conflict may boost market confidence in exports. In the short term, the most-traded HRC futures contract is expected to maintain a fluctuating trend of moving sideways.

Lecong HRC inventory this week was 916,400 mt, down 44,000 mt WoW, a decrease of 4.58%; up 7.75% YoY (solar calendar), down 7.18% YoY (lunar calendar).

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight, LME copper opened at $12,398/mt, touching a high of $12,398/mt at the start of the session. Copper prices then fluctuated downward, hitting a low of $12,280/mt, before moving sideways to finally close at $12,328.5/mt, down 0.16%. Trading volume reached 16,000 lots, and open interest stood at 294,000 lots, a decrease of 473 lots from the previous trading day, mainly driven by bulls reducing positions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2605 contract opened at 96,040 yuan/mt, touching a high of 96,300 yuan/mt at the start of the session. Copper prices then shifted downward, hitting a low of 95,540 yuan/mt, before moving sideways to finally close at 95,850 yuan/mt, down 0.74%. Trading volume reached 33,000 lots, and open interest stood at 177,000 lots, an increase of 1,074 lots from the previous trading day, mainly driven by bears adding positions.

SMM Steel April 7 — According to SMM statistics, estimated total shipments from mainstream markets this week were 182,800 mt, up 8.68% WoW. By market: Table-1: Mainstream Market Arrivals Comparison Data source: SMM Steel Shanghai market: HRC shipments to the Shanghai market increased WoW this week. Specifically, shipments from northeast and east China steel mills were basically stable, shipments of north China resources edged up slightly, and mainstream south China steel mills shipped less last week but rebounded this week on a WoW basis. In the short term, the Shanghai market lacked a competitive edge recently, coupled with sluggish inventory destocking, traders showed low enthusiasm for ordering, and steel mill shipments remained largely stable. Shipments to the Shanghai market next week are expected to see limited WoW fluctuations. Chart-1: Shanghai Market Arrivals Data source: SMM Steel Lecong market: Shipments to Lecong narrowed slightly on a WoW basis this week. Specifically, local mainstream resources showed no significant WoW change, while north China resources decreased slightly. Going forward, local mainstream steel mill WG is expected to continue fulfilling export and specialty steel orders, making it difficult for domestic trade shipment levels to increase significantly in the short term, so arrivals are expected to remain at relatively low levels in the near term. Chart-2: Lecong Market Arrivals Data source: SMM Steel SMM publishes mainstream market HRC shipment flow data every Tuesday. To subscribe or follow more data, please scan the QR code below. ​

SMM Steel News, April 7: According to SMM statistics, estimated total shipments from mainstream markets this week were 182,800 mt, up 8.68% WoW. By market: Table 1: Mainstream Market Arrivals Comparison Source: SMM Steel Shanghai market: Shipments of HRC in the Shanghai market increased WoW this week. Specifically, shipments from northeast and east China steel mills were basically stable, shipments of north China resources edged up slightly, and mainstream steel mills in south China shipped less last week but rebounded this week WoW. In the short term, the Shanghai market has shown limited price advantages recently, coupled with sluggish inventory destocking, traders' ordering enthusiasm remained subdued, and steel mill shipments were mainly stable. Shipments to the Shanghai market next week are expected to have limited WoW fluctuations. Chart-1: Shanghai Market Arrivals Source: SMM Steel Lecong market: Shipments to Lecong decreased slightly WoW this week. Specifically, local mainstream resources showed no significant WoW change, while north China resources declined slightly. Going forward, the local mainstream steel mill WG is expected to continue fulfilling export and specialty steel orders, making it difficult for domestic trade shipments to increase significantly in the short term, so arrivals are expected to remain at relatively low levels in the near term. Chart-2: Lecong Market Arrivals ​ Source: SMM Steel SMM publishes mainstream market HRC shipment flow data every Tuesday. To subscribe or follow more data, please scan the QR code below . ​

HRC futures fluctuated downward today, with the most-traded contract closing at 3,275, down 0.37% MoM. Spot market side, market quotations remained largely stable with slight price cuts in some markets. Market transactions were relatively lackluster, dominated by rigid-demand purchases. In terms of supply, few new maintenance shutdowns were added this week, and coupled with the gradual production resumptions from earlier maintenance, supply showed an incremental trend. Demand side, futures and spot price trends diverged, and spot market purchasing enthusiasm was weak, mainly driven by rigid demand. Inventory side, Zhangjiagang port inventories accumulated 30,000 mt compared to pre-holiday levels, and affected by the holiday, destocking performance in some markets may fall short of ....

SMM April 7 News: Data Brief: As of Tuesday, April 7, SMM copper inventories across major regions nationwide decreased 14.98% WoW from last Monday, with all regions continuing destocking. Specifically, in Shanghai, although a small amount of imported copper arrived, pre-holiday warehouse withdrawals performed well, and combined with a significant reduction in domestic copper inflows recently, overall inventory pulled back. In Jiangsu, inventory trends stabilized with relatively small fluctuations. In Guangdong, cargo arrivals remained limited, while end-use consumption stayed robust, driving continued inventory declines. Outlook: imported sources are arriving at ports steadily, domestic supply remains tight, and overall market supply still appears constrained. Demand side, downstream buyers mainly made just-in-time procurement, with overall consumption slowing down slightly compared to the previous period. According to survey data, the weekly operating rate of copper cathode rod is expected to drop to 82.58% this week, down 1.01 percentage points WoW. Considering both supply and demand sides, the market has formed a pattern of "tightening supply and phased consumption slowdown." Social inventory is expected to continue destocking this week, but the destocking pace is expected to slow down.

In Q1 2026, China's secondary lead market navigated through turbulence amid holiday effects and industry difficulties. Following a sharp production decline of over 140,000 mt in February, the market saw a post-holiday recovery rebound in March, but the recovery fell short of expectations, with the industry mired in the dual constraints of "profit pressure and tight raw material supply." Looking ahead to April, although large smelters are expected to resume production in a concentrated manner……

【SMM Copper Inventory Update】This week, copper cathode social inventory in China's major regions destocked for the fourth consecutive week. This was mainly because smelters gradually entered maintenance cycles, arrivals tightened somewhat, and coupled with stable demand, this supported continued inventory pullback. However, affected by the rebound in copper prices, downstream demand showed signs of slowing down, causing the destocking pace to moderate.

Driven by the concentrated release of downstream orders, inventory at copper plate/sheet and strip enterprises was rapidly destocked, with finished product inventories at some enterprises having fallen to historical lows. According to SMM data, in March, days of finished product inventories in the copper plate/sheet and strip industry decreased by 4.09 days MoM to 4.97 days, with the overall inventory level remaining in a low range.