[SMM Analysis: Lead Market Starts Strong After National Day Holiday, How Will Fundamentals Perform in October?] SMM October 9: As of 15:00 on October 9, LME lead closed at $2,016.5/mt, up 0.69% from the opening price. The most-traded SHFE lead 2511 contract closed at 17,115 yuan/mt, up 0.67% from the opening price, after hitting a session high of 17,155 yuan/mt. Following the National Day & Mid-Autumn Festival holiday, lead prices both domestically and overseas started with gains.

During the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holiday, domestic and international news kept emerging! Internationally: The US government shut down for the first time in nearly seven years, leading to the suspension or delay of some public services and affecting the release of economic data such as non-farm payrolls data. Its ripple effects on the global economy and financial markets have drawn significant attention. Meanwhile, gold prices repeatedly hit record highs, driven by concerns over the US government shutdown and political risks in countries like France and Japan. Rising safe-haven demand pushed gold prices above the $4,000 mark. Additionally, Trump announced the imposition of additional import tariffs on medium and heavy-duty trucks starting November 1. Indonesia shortened the validity period of mining quotas to one year, and Chile's copper production fell 9.9% in August, the largest decline in over two years, all of which impacted the relevant industrial landscapes. Domestically: Scenic spots, box office revenues, and air travel all peaked during the "Golden Week." The central bank continued to increase its gold holdings for the 11th consecutive month. The central bank announced that it would conduct 1,100 billion yuan in outright reverse repo operations on the first working day after the holiday to "replenish liquidity" and support the market during the first week after the holiday. The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), together with the Ministry of Finance, allocated 69 billion yuan in ultra-long-term special treasury bonds to local governments to support consumer goods trade-in programs. Wu Qing emphasized the need for high-quality planning and implementation of the "16th Five-Year Plan" capital market-related work. Additionally, SMM summarized other major events that occurred during the dual holiday and key data scheduled for release this week for your reference! ※ Holiday News Recap On the Macro Front [Qiushi Journal Publishes Important Article by General Secretary Xi Jinping, "The Formation and Development of the Chinese National Community Is the Will of the People, the Trend of the Times, and a Historical Inevitability"] The 19th issue of Qiushi Journal, published on October 1, featured an important article by Xi Jinping, General Secretary of the Communist Party of China Central Committee, President of the State, and Chairman of the Central Military Commission, titled "The Formation and Development of the Chinese National Community Is the Will of the People, the Trend of the Times, and a Historical Inevitability." This article is part of General Secretary Xi Jinping's speech delivered at the National Conference on Ethnic Unity and Progress on September 27, 2024. The article emphasizes that the Chinese nation is a great nation with a civilization history of over 5,000 years. China's various ethnic groups jointly developed the vast territory of the motherland, jointly built a unified multi-ethnic country, jointly wrote the glorious history of China, jointly created the splendid Chinese culture, and jointly cultivated the great national spirit. [ General Office of the State Council Issues "Notice on Implementing Domestic Product Standards and Related Policies in Government Procurement" ] The General Office of the State Council issued the "Notice on Implementing Domestic Product Standards and Related Policies in Government Procurement," which will take effect on January 1, 2026. The Notice aims to build a unified, open, and competitive government procurement market system, improve the government procurement regime, and ensure equal participation of various business entities in government procurement activities. The Notice specifies that the standard for domestic products in government procurement refers to products manufactured within China, with the cost of domestically produced components meeting the required proportion. For specific products, key components and critical processes must also be produced or completed domestically. This standard applies to goods involved in government procurement of goods and services projects. In government procurement activities, a 20% price evaluation preference is granted to domestic products over non-domestic products. Where international treaties or agreements concluded or jointly participated in by the People's Republic of China provide otherwise regarding domestic product policies in government procurement, such treaties or agreements shall prevail. [Central Bank Announces 1,100 Billion Yuan in Outright Reverse Repo Operations to Bolster Post-Holiday Liquidity] The central bank announced that it will conduct 1,100 billion yuan in outright reverse repo operations on the first working day after the holiday. The concentrated maturity of large-scale cross-quarter injections may become a disturbance to post-holiday liquidity. The preliminary maturity scale for October 9-10 has already reached 1.95 trillion yuan. Data shows that 800 billion yuan in three-month outright reverse repos are set to mature in October. Thus, the central bank's 1,100 billion yuan outright reverse repo operation on October 9 implies a 300 billion yuan increase in the rollover of three-month outright reverse repos for October. [NDRC Allocates This Year's Fourth Batch of 69 Billion Yuan in Ultra-Long-Term Special Treasury Bonds to Support Consumer Goods Trade-In Policy Funds] The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), together with the Ministry of Finance, has allocated the fourth batch of this year's 69 billion yuan in ultra-long-term special treasury bonds to local governments to support consumer goods trade-in policy funds. With this, the full annual 300 billion yuan in central funds has been allocated. Next, relevant departments will further guide local governments to reasonably manage the work pace, improve fund utilization plans, ensure balanced and orderly subsidy disbursement, strengthen quality and price supervision, crack down on fraudulent subsidy claims and other illegal activities, implement the consumer goods trade-in policy smoothly and orderly, and ensure subsidy funds are used effectively and deliver tangible results. [CSRC Holds Symposiums with Listed Companies and Industry Institutions on the "16th Five-Year Plan" Capital Market Plan] The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) held symposiums with listed companies and industry institutions on the "16th Five-Year Plan" capital market plan. Wu Qing emphasized the importance of high-quality planning and implementation of the "16th Five-Year Plan" capital market plan. Using the reforms of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and the ChiNext Board as key drivers, efforts will be made to further deepen comprehensive investment and financing reforms, comprehensively advance a new round of capital market reform and opening up, and continuously enhance the market's attractiveness, inclusiveness, and competitiveness. [State Administration of Foreign Exchange: China's Foreign Exchange Reserves Stood at $3,338.7 Billion at End-September, Up 0.5%] According to statistics from the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, China's foreign exchange reserves stood at $3,338.7 billion at the end of September 2025, an increase of $16.5 billion, or 0.5%, from the end of August. In September 2025, influenced by macroeconomic data, monetary policies, and expectations of major economies, the US dollar index experienced minor fluctuations, while global financial asset prices generally rose. The combined effects of currency translation and asset price changes led to an increase in foreign exchange reserves during the month. China's economy maintained overall stability with steady progress, achieving new results in high-quality development, which is conducive to keeping the foreign exchange reserves basically stable. [Ministry of Finance and Ministry of Commerce: Launch Work on Building an International Consumption Environment; International Consumption Center Cities to Receive a Total Subsidy of 200 Million Yuan per City] The Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Commerce issued a notice on launching work to build an international consumption environment, stating that the central government will provide financial subsidies to pilot cities. During the implementation period, each International Consumption Center City will receive a total subsidy of 200 million yuan, while other cities will receive 100 million yuan per city. The subsidy funds will be allocated in two batches. Partial funds will be disbursed in the first year of the pilot launch, with the remaining funds allocated based on performance evaluation results. Pilot cities may, in accordance with market principles, provide support to eligible business entities through subsidies, rewards, and other methods as stipulated. The scope of application for pilot cities includes prefecture-level cities and above (including municipalities directly under the central government, cities separately listed in the state plan, provincial capitals or capital cities of autonomous regions, prefecture-level cities, autonomous prefectures, and leagues). Approximately 15 pilot cities will be supported, including eligible International Consumption Center Cities and other cities with strong consumption-driving effects, significant development potential, and a large number of international tourists. The policy implementation period is two years. ["Golden Week" Sees Peaks in Scenic Spots, Box Office, and Aviation; Shanghai-Listed Companies Release "Travel and Leisure" Data] ① Tourist flows increased at scenic spots like Huangshan and Confucius Temple, with rich cultural activity experiences. ② The National Day box office surpassed 1.7 billion yuan, indicating sustained heat in the film market. ③ Carriers like China Eastern Airlines and Spring Airlines achieved record-high passenger volumes, with passenger numbers at multiple airports rising YoY. (Cailian Press) [Yangtze River Delta Railways Expected to Carry 3.7 Million Passengers on October 8] According to China Railway Shanghai Group Co., Ltd., October 8, the last day of the National Day-Mid-Autumn Festival holiday, saw the peak of return passenger flow in the Yangtze River Delta region, with railways expected to carry 3.7 million passengers that day. On the basis of implementing the peak operation diagram, Shanghai Railway Group planned to add 456 passenger trains (including 131 direct trains and 325 intra-bureau trains) and organize 320 EMU trains to operate with double units. Additionally, 170 additional overnight high-speed rail services were added for popular intra-bureau routes (such as Fuyang and Bozhou to Shanghai and Hefei; Xuzhou and Lianyungang to Shanghai and Nanjing; Hefei and Bengbu to Shanghai; Wenzhou and Quzhou to Shanghai and Hangzhou) and direct routes (such as Nanchang, Fuzhou, Ganzhou, Zhengzhou, and Qingdao to/from Shanghai and Hangzhou), striving to meet passengers' travel needs. ((Cailianshe) [National Day Holiday Sees Over 2.4 Billion Cross-Regional Trips, Hitting Record High] According to the Ministry of Transport, from October 1 to 8 (the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holiday), the total cross-regional passenger flow across society is estimated at 2.432 billion trips, with a daily average of 304 million trips, up 6.2% YoY. [Cross-Regional Passenger Flow Exceeds 300 Million Trips on October 7] According to the Ministry of Transport, on October 7, 2025 (the 7th day of the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holiday), the cross-regional passenger flow across society reached 309.1699 million trips, up 3.7% MoM and 18.6% YoY. [2025 National Day Holiday Film Box Office Surpasses 1.8 Billion Yuan] According to online platform data, as of 15:44 on October 8, the total box office (including presales) for films during the 2025 National Day holiday period exceeded 1.8 billion yuan. (Cailianshe) [China Development Bank Has Disbursed 978.1 Billion Yuan in Special Loans for Urban Village Renovation Since the 14th Five-Year Plan] According to the China Development Bank, the bank has actively provided financial services for the "Three Major Projects." As of the end of August this year, since the 14th Five-Year Plan period, the bank has disbursed 4.8 billion yuan in loans for affordable housing, 978.1 billion yuan in special loans for urban village renovation, and 40.7 billion yuan in loans for the construction of public infrastructure for both normal and emergency use. It is reported that the affordable housing loans disbursed since the 14th Five-Year Plan period have supported 74 projects, helping to build and gather 62,000 units of affordable housing; the special loans for urban village renovation have supported 816 projects, helping to build and gather 1.769 million units of resettlement housing, benefiting 942,000 households in urban villages; and the loans for public infrastructure for both normal and emergency use have supported 180 projects. [US Government Shutdown Causes Staff Shortages, Leading to Widespread Flight Delays in Multiple US Cities] According to CCTV News, on October 7 local time, due to a shortage of air traffic controllers caused by the US government shutdown, the US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) issued a notice that evening stating that flights in major cities such as Chicago, Dallas, and Nashville were experiencing widespread delays. Data showed that all flights to Chicago O'Hare International Airport were delayed by an average of about 41 minutes; delays at Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport once reached 30 minutes; while the average delay at Nashville International Airport was as high as 126 minutes. The FAA stated that the delays were due to "staff shortages during the government shutdown," and related scheduling is gradually being restored. [Probability of US Fed Cutting Interest Rates by 25 Basis Points in October Is 94.6%] According to CME's "FedWatch Tool," the probability of the US Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in October is 5.4%, while the probability of a 25-basis-point interest rate cut is 94.6%. The probability of the US Fed maintaining interest rates unchanged in December is 0.6%, the cumulative probability of a 25-basis-point interest rate cut is 16.0%, and the cumulative probability of a 50-basis-point cut is 83.4%. [US Senate Fails to Pass Bipartisan Funding Bill, Government Shutdown Continues] On October 6 local time, the US Senate voted on a funding bill proposed by Democrats aimed at ending the government shutdown. The final vote was 45 in favor and 50 against, and the bill failed to pass. Subsequently, the US Senate voted on a temporary funding bill proposed by Republicans. The vote result still did not meet the threshold for passage, and the bill failed to pass. With the bills rejected, the US government shutdown will continue. (CCTV News) [White House Official: Government Shutdown Costs US Economy About $15 Billion per Week] According to CCTV News, on October 6 local time, CCTV reporters learned that Kevin Hassett, Director of the US White House National Economic Council, stated that the government shutdown is reducing US economic output at a rate of approximately $15 billion per week. Hassett, citing an internal White House report during a media interview, said the shutdown would reduce US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by about 0.1 percentage points per week. If it lasts for a month, it would lead to approximately 43,000 additional job losses and reduce consumer spending by $30 billion. The Congressional Budget Office previously estimated that the last government shutdown during Trump's first term cost the US economy $11 billion, of which about $3 billion was permanently lost. [After Seven Years! US Government Shuts Down Again, How Will It Affect the Economy and Financial Markets?] As the clock struck midnight Eastern Time on October 1, the US government officially entered a shutdown. According to Xinhua News Agency, at 0:00 local time on October 1, the US federal government shut down again after nearly seven years. Hundreds of thousands of federal employees will be forced to take unpaid leave, some public services may be suspended or delayed, and the release of economic data will be affected. Previously, US parties failed to reach an agreement on a new temporary funding bill due to disagreements over healthcare benefits. The day before, after the US Senate successively rejected funding bills from both parties, the White House officially announced that the government was about to shut down. On the evening of the 30th local time, White House Office of Management and Budget (OMB) Director Vought issued a memorandum instructing government agencies to begin implementing their plans for an "orderly shutdown." [ECB Governing Council Member Nagel: ECB's Current Monetary Policy is Appropriate] ECB Governing Council Member Nagel stated that the ECB's current monetary policy is appropriate, eurozone inflation is close to the medium-term target of 2%, and is expected to remain at this level in the coming years. [ECB Governing Council Member Rehn Warns: Inflation Outlook May Face Downside Risks] ECB Governing Council Member Olli Rehn warned that consumer price growth could slow down to below the 2% target. "We have largely reached this target for now—in that sense, the current situation is good," the Governor of the Bank of Finland told the Karon Grilli podcast. "However, downside risks to inflation remain in the coming years—due to factors such as a stronger euro, and stabilizing wage and service inflation." After eight interest rate cuts of 25 basis points within a year, officials are weighing whether further policy easing is needed. Most officials appear to believe that maintaining the deposit rate at 2% is acceptable as long as no new shocks occur, while others insist that the possibility of further rate cuts should not be ruled out. [Outgoing French Prime Minister Lecorni: All Parties Willing to Pass Budget Bill Within the Year, Reducing Risk of Parliament Dissolution] According to CCTV News, on October 8 local time, the resigned French Prime Minister Lecorni delivered a speech at the Prime Minister's office. Lecorni stated that since the initiation of "final negotiations," exchanges among political parties have achieved some positive progress. He said, "I can announce good news—all political forces invited to participate in the negotiations have expressed a common willingness to pass the national budget before December 31 this year." Lecorni added that this consensus "helps reduce the risk of the National Assembly being dissolved." [French Prime Minister Lecorni Submits Resignation to Macron] According to CCTV News, on October 6 local time, French Prime Minister Lecorni submitted his resignation to President Macron, and Macron has accepted the resignation. [Japanese Opposition Parties Seek to Jointly Propose Prime Minister Candidate] According to Reference News citing Jiji Press website on October 8, the parliamentary affairs chiefs of seven Japanese opposition parties held a meeting at the Diet on the 7th to discuss how to respond to the upcoming prime minister designation election. The report stated that, given the current deadlock in negotiations between the Liberal Democratic Party and Komeito on forming a coalition government, Constitutional Democratic Party Diet Affairs Committee Chairman Hiroshi Kasa again proposed voting for a candidate jointly endorsed by the opposition parties. All parties expressed willingness to consider this proposal. The Constitutional Democratic Party will intensify efforts to engage with Nippon Ishin no Kai and the Democratic Party for the People, and also consider making contact with Komeito. [Takaichi Sanae Elected LDP President, Expected to Become Next Japanese Prime Minister] According to CCTV News, on the afternoon of October 4 local time, Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party held its presidential election vote counting. In the second round of voting, former Minister of Economic Security Sanae Takaichi received the majority of votes and was elected as the new president of the Liberal Democratic Party, and is highly likely to become the next Prime Minister of Japan. [Australia and Singapore Announce Launch of Upgraded Comprehensive Strategic Partnership] According to Xinhua News Agency, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Singaporean Prime Minister Lawrence Wong held talks on the 8th in Canberra, the capital of Australia. In a joint statement, the two prime ministers announced the launch of an upgraded Comprehensive Strategic Partnership, enhancing cooperation in areas such as the economy, climate change response, artificial intelligence, and healthcare. Albanese stated at a joint press conference that Australia and Singapore share a common worldview on multilateralism, free and fair trade, and the importance of multilateral institutions, including the United Nations and upcoming summits such as the ASEAN Summit, APEC meeting, and G20 Leaders' Summit. He said, "We strongly support multilateralism as one of the pillars of our foreign policy." Wong stated that in strengthening multilateralism, Singapore and Australia are taking concrete measures. When cooperating, both sides focus not only on mutually beneficial bilateral initiatives but also on maintaining or strengthening important multilateral frameworks to keep the rules-based global system functioning. The close cooperation between the two countries on regional and multilateral platforms is another way to consolidate and strengthen multilateral frameworks. [WTO Raises 2025 Global Goods Trade Growth Forecast to 2.4%] The World Trade Organization (WTO) released the latest "Global Trade Outlook and Statistics" report on the 7th, pointing out that driven by increased demand for artificial intelligence (AI)-related products, a surge in North American imports ahead of tariff hikes, and active trade among emerging economies, global goods trade in the first half of 2025 exceeded expectations. Accordingly, the WTO raised its forecast for global goods trade growth in 2025 to 2.4%, up from 0.9% in August; however, the forecast for 2026 was lowered to 0.5%. [New Zealand Central Bank Cuts Benchmark Interest Rate by 50 Basis Points to 2.5%, Previously Widely Expected to Cut 25 Basis Points] The Reserve Bank of New Zealand stated in a declaration following its policy meeting in Wellington on Wednesday: New Zealand's inflation outlook faces both upside and downside risks. Cautious attitudes among households and businesses could slow economic recovery and reduce medium-term inflation pressures. Additionally, recent high inflation may persist longer. Overall, the Committee reached a consensus to cut the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 50 basis points to 2.5%, whereas most economists had previously expected a 25 basis point cut. Industry Highlights [Central Bank: China's Gold Reserves at 74.06 Million Ounces at End-September, Increasing for the 11th Consecutive Month] Data from the central bank showed that China's gold reserves stood at 74.06 million ounces at the end of September, an increase of 40,000 ounces MoM, marking the 11th consecutive month of gold accumulation. Gold reserves stood at 74.02 million ounces at month-end. [Trump Announces Medium and Heavy-Duty Truck Import Tariffs to Take Effect on November 1] According to CCTV News, on October 6 local time, US President Trump posted on his social media platform "Truth Social" that starting November 1, 2025, a 25% tariff will be imposed on all medium and heavy-duty trucks imported into the US from other countries and regions. On September 25, Trump stated that a 25% tariff would be imposed on all imported heavy-duty trucks starting October 1. [IEA: Global Renewable Energy Installation Capacity to Continue Strong Growth] The "Renewables 2025" report released by the International Energy Agency on the 7th predicts that, despite facing unfavourable factors such as supply chain and funding pressures, grid integration challenges, and policy uncertainty, global renewable energy installation capacity will continue to grow strongly. It is projected that the new installations of renewable energy globally over the next five years will double the increase seen in the previous five-year period. The report forecasts that from 2025 to 2030, global renewable energy capacity will increase by 4,600 gigawatts, roughly equivalent to the current combined capacity of China, the EU, and Japan. The report indicates that over the next five years, global renewable energy growth will be primarily driven by the solar PV industry, with solar PV growth expected to account for about 80% of the global renewable capacity increase, benefiting from low costs and accelerated approval processes. Wind power is expected to rank second in terms of its share of new renewable capacity; despite short-term challenges, wind power is still set for significant growth as supply bottlenecks ease and projects advance, particularly in China, Europe, and India. Furthermore, hydropower and other renewable energy technologies such as bioenergy and geothermal will continue to play important roles in supporting power systems and enhancing flexibility. [Indonesia Shortens Mining Quota Validity to One Year, Effective Immediately] On Tuesday, October 7, Indonesia's Ministry of Mining issued a new regulation limiting the validity period of mining production quotas to one year, down from the previous three years. The ministry stated that the new rule takes effect immediately. (Wenhua Composite) [Indonesian President Urges Authorities to Crack Down on Illegal Mining and Tin Ore Smuggling] On Monday, October 6, Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto called on the Attorney General, the military, customs, the coast guard, and other departments to continue efforts to stop illegal tin ore mining and smuggling activities. On Monday, he witnessed the handover of assets seized in a tin mining corruption case. He stated that this reflects the government's serious efforts to eradicate illegal mining. ( [Spot Gold Breaks Through $4,000/oz Mark, Hitting New Highs] On October 8, spot gold broke through the $4,000 per ounce mark, setting new highs, with a year-to-date surge of nearly $1,400 per ounce and a gain of over 52%. Spot silver approached $48 per ounce, reaching its highest level since May 2011. (Cailianshe) [Domestic Gold Jewelry Prices Rise Above 1,160 Yuan/Gram at Multiple Brands] On October 8, international gold prices continued to hit new highs, with spot gold breaking through the $4,000 per ounce level during the day. Gold jewelry prices at several domestic gold jewelry brands continued to climb, with Lao Miao Gold and Lao Fengxiang's pure gold jewelry rising to 1,160 yuan per gram, Chow Sang Sang's pure gold jewelry to 1,165 yuan per gram, and Chow Tai Fook's pure gold jewelry to 1,162 yuan per gram. (Cailianshe) [Goldman Sachs Raises Gold Price Forecast for December 2026 to $4,900/oz] Goldman Sachs raised its gold price forecast for December 2026 to $4,900 per ounce, up from a previous estimate of $4,300. It expects net central bank gold purchases to average 80 mt in 2025 and 70 mt in 2026, as emerging market central banks are likely to continue structurally diversifying their foreign exchange reserves by increasing gold holdings. [Goldman Sachs: Market Currently in Slight Surplus; Copper Prices Expected to Fluctuate Between $10,000-$11,000/mt] Goldman Sachs stated in a research report that, based on resource constraints and structural demand growth in key industries, copper prices are expected to fluctuate between $10,000 and $11,000 per mt (the same hereinafter). The bank raised its 2026 copper price forecast from $10,000 per mt to $10,500 per mt, citing the shutdown of Indonesia's Grasberg mine, US interest rate cuts, and further depreciation of the US dollar, while maintaining its 2027 forecast of $10,750 per mt and expecting copper prices to remain around $10,000 per mt for the rest of 2025. Although bullish on copper, the bank believes prices will be capped at $11,000 over the next two years, as the copper market is currently in a slight surplus, which is expected to persist into 2026 despite recent mine disruptions significantly reducing global copper cathode production. [Chile's August Copper Output Falls 9.9%, Marking Largest Drop in Over Two Years] On Tuesday, September 30, data released by Chile's National Statistics Institute showed that Chile, the world's largest copper producer, recorded its largest decline in copper production in over two years in August. Production fell 9.9% YoY to 423,643 mt, compared with 470,696 mt in August 2024. [Morgan Stanley: Foreign Inflows into Chinese Stocks Rebound to $4.6 Billion in September; Active Funds Top Up Semiconductors Most] Morgan Stanley said foreign inflows into Chinese stocks rebounded to $4.6 billion in September, the highest monthly level since November 2024, mainly driven by $5.2 billion inflows from passive funds, while active funds saw a slight outflow of $600 million. Analysts including Chloe Liu stated in a report that following substantial inflows from US funds into Chinese stocks since mid-July, European Union passive funds began catching up in September. By September 30, cumulative inflows from foreign passive funds for the year reached $18 billion, surpassing last year’s level of $7 billion. Among sectors seeing increased allocations, active funds added the most to capital goods and semiconductors, while reducing holdings the most in insurance, durable consumer goods, and apparel. The largest increases in holdings were seen in Alibaba, CATL, and JD.com, while the largest decreases were in Tencent, Ping An Insurance, and Pop Mart. [Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges: Qualified Foreign Investors Allowed to Participate in ETF Options Trading for Hedging Purposes Only] The Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges issued notices respectively, allowing qualified foreign investors to participate in exchange-traded fund (ETF) options trading listed on the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges, with trading purposes limited to hedging. Qualified foreign investors may apply for spot long hedging and spot short hedging open interest limits. Qualified foreign investors shall report the planned use of A-share securities accounts to the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges through their entrusted options operators, and after the reporting is approved, open corresponding derivatives contract accounts as dedicated hedging accounts. Qualified foreign investors shall submit applications for hedging limits for relevant options varieties to the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges through their entrusted options operators. Only after the limits are approved by the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges may they participate in hedging transactions, and they must continuously comply with the requirements for stock options hedging transactions set by the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges. The Shanghai Stock Exchange will begin accepting applications from qualified foreign investors to participate in stock options trading from the date of the above notice, while the Shenzhen Stock Exchange will begin accepting such applications from October 9, 2025. [Multiple Global Chip Giants Raise Product Prices; Morgan Stanley Predicts Super Cycle for Memory Chip Industry] Over the past six months, global memory chip prices have continued to rise. Particularly in the recent month, price increase announcements have become more frequent. Major producers such as South Korea’s Samsung Electronics and the US’s SanDisk have recently notified customers of price adjustments, and spot market prices have risen rapidly in a short period. Capital markets have responded directly to the recent changes in memory chip trends, with share prices of multiple producers continuously hitting record highs. Over the past month, Micron’s stock price has accumulated a rise of approximately 60%, while Kioxia and SanDisk have both seen accumulated increases exceeding 100%. From an industry perspective, Morgan Stanley’s latest research report predicts that, driven by the artificial intelligence boom, the memory chip industry is expected to enter a "super cycle." [OPEC+ Agrees to Increase Crude Oil Production by 137,000 Barrels per Day in November] OPEC+ representatives stated that the organization has agreed to a slight increase in crude oil production in November. Representatives revealed that the organization will increase production by 137,000 barrels per day next month, a decision that will be approved at the upcoming OPEC+ meeting. [EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook: Forecasts 2025 WTI Crude Oil Price at $65 per Barrel] The EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook forecasts the 2025 Brent price at $68.64 per barrel, compared to a previous expectation of $67.80 per barrel. It forecasts the 2025 WTI crude oil price at $65 per barrel, compared to a previous expectation of $64.16 per barrel. The EIA raised its 2025 US crude oil production forecast to 13.53 million barrels per day (previously forecasted at 13.44 million b/d) and raised its 2026 forecast to 13.51 million barrels per day (previously forecasted at 13.3 million b/d). Company News [BYD: September NEV Sales Reach 396,300 Units ] BYD released its September production and sales report. NEV sales for September were 396,300 units, down 5.52% YoY. Additionally, NEV exports in September were 71,256 units. The total installed capacity of power and ESS batteries for NEVs in September was approximately 23.2 GWh, and the cumulative total installed capacity for 2025 was approximately 203.251 GWh. [Seres: September NEV Sales Up 19.44% YoY] Seres announced that its September 2025 NEV sales reached 44,700 units, up 19.44% YoY. [Great Wall Motor: Total September Sales Reach 133,639 Units, Up 23.29% YoY] Great Wall Motor released its September production and sales report on October 8. Total sales in September were 133,639 units, up 23.29% YoY, while total production was 134,404 units, up 25.38% YoY. [SAIC Leads Industry with 440,000 Auto Sales in September, Up 40% YoY] On October 8, SAIC released its production and sales report. Auto sales in September reached 440,000 units, up 40.4% YoY and 21% MoM, ranking first in the industry by sales volume. Since the beginning of this year, SAIC has achieved "nine consecutive months" of YoY sales growth. Cumulative wholesale auto sales from January to September reached 3.193 million units, up 20.5% YoY, while end-user retail sales reached 3.378 million units, maintaining its leading position in the domestic industry. Through comprehensive deepening of reforms and promoting innovation and transformation, SAIC's "new three pillars" – its proprietary brands, new energy vehicles, and overseas markets – continue to show strong momentum. In September this year, sales of SAIC's proprietary brands reached 294,000 units, up 50.4% YoY; NEV sales reached nearly 190,000 units, up 46.5% YoY; and overseas market sales reached 101,000 units, up 12.2% YoY. [Xingye Silver & Tin: Stock Price Fluctuation Attributed to Significant Market Price Volatility of Its Main Products, Silver and Tin] Xingye Silver & Tin announced on October 8 that the cumulative deviation of its stock's closing price over three consecutive trading days (September 26, September 29, and September 30) reached 20.78%, meeting the Shenzhen Stock Exchange's criteria for abnormal stock price fluctuations. The company stated that it has not discovered any unreported major information in recent public media reports that could or has significantly affected its stock trading price; its recent operations are normal, with no significant changes in its internal or external operating environment; after analysis by the board of directors, the primary reason for this stock price fluctuation is the significant recent market price volatility of its main products, silver and tin. [Sichuan Gold: Successfully Acquired Prospecting Rights for the Kugezi-Juebei Gold Ore Prospect in Gaochang District, Xinjiang via Auction] Sichuan Gold announced on October 8 that on August 13, the Department of Natural Resources of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, entrusted by the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region Government Service and Public Resource Trading Center, issued the "Announcement on the Listing and Transfer of 9 Prospecting Rights, Including the 2025 Xarxili Hotel Geothermal Survey in Bole City, Xinjiang." On September 30, the company successfully acquired the prospecting rights for the Kugezi-Juebei gold ore prospect in Gaochang District, Xinjiang, with a winning bid of 510 million yuan. The exploration area is located within the Central Tianshan Metallogenic Belt, a significant gold metallogenic belt in China. The ore bodies are controlled by NW-SE trending anticlines and faults. The gold anomaly zone in the exploration area extends for several kilometers, consistent with the direction of the ore-controlling structures, indicating favorable metallogenic geological conditions and significant exploration potential. [Cambricon: Private Placement Price Set at 1,195.02 Yuan Per Share] Cambricon disclosed its report on the issuance of A-shares to specific objects in 2025. The private placement price was set at 1,195.02 yuan per share, with the issuance targets finalized as 13 entities. The number of shares issued was 3.3349 million, raising a total of 3.985 billion yuan. After deducting issuance costs of 32.1713 million yuan, the net proceeds raised by the company amounted to 3.953 billion yuan. The raised funds will be used for the large model-oriented chip platform project, the large model-oriented software platform project, and to supplement working capital. [VeriSilicon: Company Forecasts Q3 New Orders of 1.593 Billion Yuan, Up 145.8% YoY] On October 8, VeriSilicon announced that it expects Q3 2025 revenue to reach 1.284 billion yuan, up 119.74% QoQ and up 78.77% YoY. The company anticipates a significant improvement in profitability in Q3, with losses narrowing substantially both YoY and QoQ. Additionally, the company forecasts Q3 new orders of 1.593 billion yuan, up 145.80% YoY, of which orders related to AI computing power account for approximately 65%. The company's orders on hand have remained at high levels for eight consecutive quarters, and are projected to reach 3.286 billion yuan by the end of Q3 2025, continuously setting new historical records. [Tesla Launches New Model Y with a Selling Price of $39,990] Tesla launched a new version of the Model Y with a selling price of $39,990, making its most popular car model more affordable to counter the impact of the expiration of US EV subsidies. According to the company's official website, the starting price of this new version is approximately 11% lower than the previous base Model Y. The new version has an estimated driving range of 321 miles, about 10% lower than the high-end version, and it removes the second-row touchscreen while featuring less than half the number of speakers compared to the high-end version. [Foton Motor: Total Vehicle Sales in September Reach 55,253 Units, Up 6.08% YoY] Foton Motor released a quick report on production and sales data for various products in September on October 8. Total vehicle sales in September were 55,253 units, compared to 52,086 units in the same period last year, up 6.08% YoY; total production was 56,279 units, compared to 57,627 units in the same period last year. Among these, NEV sales in September reached 8,624 units, compared to 5,836 units in the same period last year, up 47.77% YoY; September production was 9,207 units, compared to 7,181 units in the same period last year. [OpenAI Completes Stock Trading at a Record Valuation of $5 Trillion] According to reports, informed sources revealed that OpenAI has completed a transaction allowing current and former employees to sell approximately $6.6 billion worth of shares at a company valuation of $5 trillion. This secondary transaction makes the ChatGPT developer the world's most valuable startup, surpassing the valuation of Elon Musk's SpaceX. Previously, in a $400 billion funding round led by SoftBank Group, OpenAI was valued at $300 billion. The sources indicated that, as part of the deal, OpenAI employees sold shares to a group of investors including Sequoia Capital, SoftBank, Dragoneer Investment Group, Abu Dhabi's MGX, and T. Rowe Price. [Hainan Huatie: Subsidiary Terminates the "Computing Power Service Agreement"] Hainan Huatie announced that its wholly-owned subsidiary, Huatie Dahuangfeng, signed the "Computing Power Service Agreement" with Hangzhou X Company (hereinafter referred to as "X Company") in March 2025, stipulating that Huatie Dahuangfeng would provide computing power services to X Company for a term of five years, with an estimated total contract value of 3.69 billion yuan (including tax). Due to significant changes in the market environment and supply-demand conditions related to the transactions and equipment under the original agreement since its signing, and as no purchase orders have been received since the agreement was executed, the company recently issued a "Letter Regarding Termination of the " to X Company. [Apple Halts Headset Upgrade Plans Prioritizes Development of Smart Glasses to Rival Meta] Apple has suspended its plans to upgrade the Vision Pro headset, instead focusing on developing smart glasses that can compete with products from Meta Platforms. The company is working on at least two types of smart glasses, including one that pairs with an iPhone and does not have a built-in display, and another equipped with a display to challenge Meta's Ray-Ban Stories. Apple's glasses will heavily rely on voice interaction and artificial intelligence, expected to come in various styles, and feature speakers, cameras, and voice control. [Boeing 777X Jet Delivery Slated for 2027 Could Result in Billions in Losses] According to sources, Boeing's 777X jet is set to enter commercial service in early 2027, not next year as originally planned, marking another setback for the US aircraft manufacturer. Analysts estimate the non-cash accounting charge could range between $2.5 billion and $4 billion, though Boeing has not provided detailed cost figures. This six-year-delayed jetliner is of significant strategic and financial importance for Boeing in its competition with Airbus SE for a larger share of the lucrative long-haul aviation market. Boeing executives plan to discuss the extent and costs of the latest delay for this large aircraft when they release earnings on October 29. ※Key Economic Data Releases This Week This week, data will be released on Germany's seasonally adjusted export rate for August, the US initial jobless claims for the week ending October 4, the US continuing jobless claims for the week ending October 4, the final reading of the US wholesale inventory rate for August, China's M2 money supply year-on-year for September (1010-1017), China's total social financing for September year-to-date (1010-1017), China's new yuan loans for September year-to-date (1010-1017), Switzerland's seasonally adjusted consumer confidence index for September, Canada's employment change for September, Canada's unemployment rate for September, and the preliminary reading of the University of Michigan's US consumer sentiment index for October. Also this week: the US Fed will release minutes from its monetary policy meeting; 2026 FOMC voter and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari will deliver a speech; the European Central Bank will release minutes from its September monetary policy meeting; Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will give opening remarks (pre-recorded) at a community banking conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Board; Fed Governor Michelle Bowman will speak; Fed Governor Michael Barr and 2026 FOMC voter and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari will speak at an event; 2025 FOMC voter and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee will give opening remarks and moderate a discussion at a community bankers' symposium. Additionally, it is worth noting that the specific release date for the US non-farm payrolls data has not yet been determined (the exact timing will depend on the end of the US government shutdown and subsequent updated announcements). As the US government shutdown continues, the US Senate made a sixth attempt on October 8 local time to pass a temporary spending bill to end the federal government shutdown, after the previous five attempts failed. Recommended Reading:

Editor's Note: As the 8-day holiday for the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day approaches, domestic stock and futures markets will be closed, while US, major European stock indices, and international commodity markets will continue trading. The information gap and volatility risks under market interconnectivity are worth noting. The current global situation is at multiple critical periods: the two parties in the US Congress have yet to reach a consensus on the budget, leaving the US government shutdown crisis unresolved. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics has clearly warned that if a shutdown occurs, the core economic data originally scheduled for early October, such as the non-farm employment report and the Consumer Price Index (CPI), will be postponed, adding uncertainty to global monetary policy expectations and asset pricing. Meanwhile, US President Trump announced that Israel has accepted his proposed Gaza peace plan. Whether this news can ease the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East remains to be verified. Focusing on the domestic front, in addition to the highly anticipated core data of holiday economy such as tourist reception numbers and total cultural and tourism consumption, the continued rebound of the manufacturing PMI in September before the double festivals, the progress of consumption voucher redemption in key cities, and the price fluctuations of commodities like non-ferrous metals and energy in the international commodity market, may all become key variables affecting the post-holiday market trend. For this reason, SMM has compiled and summarized the core data and major events before and after the holiday for your reference! Domestic Front [The Central Bank Announces 1,100 Billion Yuan Buyout Reverse Repo Operations to "Replenish" Liquidity for the First Week After the Holiday] In the face of disturbances from the National Day holiday and quarter-end factors, the central bank has recently been using a variety of monetary policy tools to clearly show its commitment to maintaining liquidity. Experts point out that the central bank will continue to control the intensity and pace of policy implementation, flexibly use monetary policy tools, and maintain ample liquidity. On September 30, the central bank announced that it would conduct 1,100 billion yuan of buyout reverse repo operations on October 9 through a fixed quantity, interest rate tender, and multi-price winning bid method, with a term of 3 months. On September 29, the central bank conducted 288.6 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations at a fixed interest rate and quantity tender. With 240.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos maturing on the same day, a net injection of 48.1 billion yuan was achieved. Data shows that 800 billion yuan of 3-month buyout reverse repos will mature in October. Thus, the central bank's 1,100 billion yuan of 3-month buyout reverse repo operations on October 9 means an additional 300 billion yuan of 3-month buyout reverse repos. In October, there will also be 500 billion yuan of 6-month buyout reverse repos maturing, and it is expected that the central bank will conduct another 6-month buyout operation in October, with an equal renewal being more likely. This means that the two tenor varieties of buyout reverse repos will continue to be extended with additional volumes, injecting medium-term liquidity into the market for the fifth consecutive month. [NBS: Manufacturing PMI at 49.8% in September, Up 0.4 Percentage Points from the Previous Month] Data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed that in September, the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.8%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating continued improvement in the prosperity level of the manufacturing sector. In September, the composite PMI output index was 50.6%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, remaining above the threshold, indicating that the overall expansion of production and business activities of enterprises in China continued to accelerate. Huo Lihui, Chief Statistician of the NBS Service Industry Survey Center, interpreted China's Purchasing Managers' Index for September 2025: Enterprise production expansion accelerated. The production index was 51.9%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, rising to a near six-month high, indicating relatively active manufacturing production activities; the new orders index was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating some improvement in market demand prosperity. By sector, the production indices and new orders indices for sectors such as food and alcoholic beverages, refined tea, automobiles, and railway, ship, aerospace equipment were all above 54.0%, indicating rapid release of production and demand; for sectors such as wood processing and furniture, petroleum, coal and other fuel processing, and non-metallic mineral products, both indices were below the threshold. Driven by the rebound in manufacturing production, enterprises accelerated raw material procurement, with the purchasing volume index rising to 51.6%. [SASAC: Focus on Key Tasks of Layout and Structural Adjustment, Break Through Bottlenecks in Technological Innovation] According to a September 30 news release from the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council (SASAC), SASAC recently held the third thematic promotion meeting for 2025 on the deepening and upgrading action for state-owned enterprise reform. The meeting proposed that efforts must be directed inward, with real action and tough measures, to resolutely win the battle for the high-quality completion of the deepening and upgrading action. It emphasized a problem-oriented approach, promoting the addressing of weaknesses and strengthening areas of deficiency, focusing on key tasks of layout and structural adjustment, striving to break through bottlenecks in technological innovation, working to reinforce weak links in corporate governance and market-oriented operating mechanisms, and tackling key and difficult points in state-owned assets supervision. It called for strengthened organizational leadership, emphasis on key priorities, enhanced penetration to the grassroots level, improved reform effectiveness, and ensuring the high-quality completion of various reform tasks. [SASAC: State-Owned Enterprises and Central SOEs Should Focus on Industrial Revitalization in Xinjiang, Actively Invest and Layout in Xinjiang] According to a news release on the SASAC website on September 29, the Party Committee of SASAC held an enlarged meeting. The meeting emphasized that state-owned enterprises and central SOEs should focus on industrial revitalization in Xinjiang, actively invest and layout in Xinjiang, promote the deep integration of technological innovation and industrial innovation, assist Xinjiang in developing characteristic and advantageous industries, foster competitive industrial clusters, and develop new quality productive forces according to local conditions; leverage the role of the "Harmonious Countryside Journey" central SOE cultural tourism assistance platform to promote the integrated development of culture and tourism in Xinjiang; and deeply participate in the construction of Xinjiang's core area of the Silk Road Economic Belt, assisting Xinjiang in achieving high-level opening up. Prioritizing the protection and improvement of people's livelihoods, continuous efforts were made to enhance assistance in industries, employment, talent, consumption, and other fields. The implementation of "small and beautiful" projects benefiting the people was deepened, contributing to the comprehensive revitalization of Xinjiang's rural areas and enabling people of all ethnic groups in Xinjiang to widely participate in the development process and share in the development outcomes. [Central Bank Preemptively "Replenishes" Liquidity, Ensuring Smooth Cross-Quarter Transition Without Worry] On September 29, the People's Bank of China conducted 7-day reverse repo operations amounting to 288.6 billion yuan through fixed-rate quantity tenders. As 240.5 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repos matured on the same day, a net injection of 48.1 billion yuan was achieved. Experts indicated that facing disruptions from the National Day holiday and the cross-quarter period, the central bank recently employed a combination of monetary policy tools, demonstrating a clear intent to safeguard liquidity. Subsequently, the central bank will continue to manage the intensity and pace of policy implementation appropriately, flexibly utilizing monetary policy tools to maintain ample liquidity. (Cailianshe) [Double Festival Approaches, Civil Aviation Passenger Traffic Expected to Hit Record High for Same Period] This year's National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival involve an 8-day holiday, leading to high demand for civil aviation travel, creating another passenger flow peak after the summer transport period. Beijing's two airports are expected to handle over 2.97 million passengers during the holiday, with Capital Airport alone projected to handle 1.67 million passengers during the Double Festival. Reporters also learned from the Civil Aviation Administration that during this year's National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holiday, civil aviation passenger traffic is expected to reach 19.2 million, potentially setting a record high for the same period. (CCTV News) [National Railways Plan to Add 2,002 Extra Passenger Trains Today, Some High-Speed Rail Tickets at Minimum 40% Discount] As the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holiday is about to begin, the railway transport plan for the holiday commenced on the 29th. According to China State Railway Group, on the 29th, national railways carried 12.904 million passengers. Today (30th), national railways are expected to carry 18.4 million passengers, with plans to add 2,002 extra passenger trains. October 1 will see the peak passenger flow for national railways. Currently, passenger flow on national railways shows a significant growth trend. National railways are expected to carry 18.4 million passengers today, with additional high-speed sleeper trains added from Beijing to Guangdong, Hong Kong, and other directions. New lines facilitate high-speed rail loops, leading to the addition of loop high-speed rail trains in various regions. Tickets from Longmen Station to Zhengzhou Station today are available at a minimum 40% discount. [Yangtze River Delta Railways Expected to Carry 3.65 Million Passengers Today] According to China Railway Shanghai Group Co., Ltd., on September 30, Yangtze River Delta railways continued to experience large passenger flows during the National Day Golden Week. It is estimated that 3.65 million passengers will be carried today, which is 213,000 more than on September 30, 2024, representing an increase of over 6%. Yesterday (September 29), the group company actually carried 2.769 million passengers. (CNS) [Anhui Province Holds Fourth Batch of Major Project Commencement Mobilization Meeting with Total Investment of 332.38 Billion Yuan] The Anhui Provincial Committee and Provincial Government held the 2025 fourth batch of major project commencement mobilization meeting for the province. A total of 587 projects were mobilized for commencement, with a total investment of 332.38 billion yuan and an annual planned investment of 42.69 billion yuan. There were 9 projects with investment exceeding 3 billion yuan and 5 projects with investment exceeding 5 billion yuan. [CAAM: Auto Parts Import Value in August Was $2.05 Billion, Down 17.9% YoY] According to data from the General Administration of Customs compiled by CAAM, in August 2025, the import value of auto parts reached $2.05 billion, up 3.5% MoM but down 17.9% YoY. From January to August 2025, the import value of auto parts was $14.27 billion, down 22.1% YoY. [Hangzhou: Suspends Auto Replacement and Renewal Subsidy Policy Effective October 9] The Hangzhou Municipal Commerce Bureau issued an announcement on further adjusting the 2025 Hangzhou auto trade-in policy: (1) Suspend the implementation of the auto replacement and renewal subsidy policy. Effective 00:00 on October 9, 2025 (based on the new vehicle invoice date), the auto replacement and renewal subsidy policy is suspended within Hangzhou. Eligible consumers must submit applications and upload required documents via the official "Zhejiang Auto Replacement and Renewal" mini-program before 00:00 on November 9, 2025. Applications not submitted by the deadline will be deemed automatically abandoned. (2) Optimize the implementation of the auto retirement and renewal subsidy policy. Effective 00:00 on October 9, 2025 (based on the new vehicle invoice date), consumers applying for the auto retirement and renewal subsidy in Hangzhou must have both the retired vehicle's registration location (i.e., license plate location) and the new vehicle's registration location within Hangzhou. The subsidy standards, application process, and other requirements for the auto retirement and renewal subsidy will continue to follow the original policy. [Shenzhen Issues Implementation Rules to Support High-Quality Development of Low-Altitude Economy] The Shenzhen Municipal Transport Bureau issued the implementation rules for the "Several Measures of Shenzhen Municipality to Support the High-Quality Development of the Low-Altitude Economy." These rules take effect on October 9, 2025, and are valid until December 31, 2026. The subsidy standards for enterprises obtaining type certificates and production certificates for eVTOL aircraft or unmanned aircraft from the Civil Aviation Administration of China and operating in Shenzhen are: 1. A one-time reward of 15 million yuan for manned eVTOL aircraft. 2. A one-time reward of 5 million yuan for large unmanned aircraft. 3. A one-time reward of 3 million yuan for medium unmanned aircraft. 4. Each enterprise shall receive a total annual reward of no more than 30 million yuan, with each model eligible for reward only once. [Wuhan: Strengthening Subsidies for Rigid Housing Demand] On September 30, the Wuhan Municipal Housing and Urban Renewal Bureau and other departments jointly issued the "Notice on Further Promoting the Stable and Healthy Development of Wuhan's Real Estate Market with Policy Measures," proposing to enhance subsidies for rigid housing demand. From October 1 to December 31, 2025, families purchasing their first new commercial housing through commercial loans in specific areas—including the East Lake High-tech Development Zone, Wuhan Economic and Technological Development Zone (Hannan District), Yangtze New Area, Dongxihu District, Huangpi District, Jiangxia District, Caidian District, Xinzhou District, as well as areas outside the Third Ring Road in Hanyang District, Qingshan District, and Hongshan District—will receive a loan interest subsidy equivalent to 1% of the initial loan amount, up to a maximum of 20,000 yuan, disbursed in equal installments over two years. [National Council for Social Security Fund: Firmly Optimistic About Long-Term Investment Value of Domestic Stocks] The National Council for Social Security Fund released its 2024 annual report. The report indicated that in 2024, the fund achieved an investment income of 218.418 billion yuan, with an investment yield of 8.1%. Data showed that at year-end 2024, the total assets of the National Social Security Fund amounted to 3,322.462 billion yuan, and the fund's equity totaled 2,912.802 billion yuan. Since its establishment, the fund has maintained an average annual investment yield of 7.39%. The Council has continuously improved the investment and operation levels across various asset classes. In terms of equity investment, it remains firmly optimistic about the long-term investment value of domestic stocks, leveraging the advantages of long-term capital and patient capital to conduct investments from a long-term perspective. It closely monitors capital market and regulatory policy dynamics, optimizes and refines the secondary asset allocation analysis framework, and continuously explores stable positive contributions through product system configuration. The Council is accelerating index-based investment efforts, establishing replication index products to lay the foundation for further enhancing the quality and efficiency of stock investments. It focuses on improving the overseas equity investment research system, making timely optimizations and adjustments to the existing structure, and adheres to a bottom-line mindset to strengthen risk prevention for overseas assets. Both domestic and overseas equity investments have achieved satisfactory returns. [This Year's Digital Trade Expo Reaches Intentional Investment and Trade Agreements Totaling 161.98 Billion Yuan] The fourth Global Digital Trade Expo concluded on the 29th in Hangzhou, Zhejiang Province. This edition of the expo featured 1,812 exhibiting enterprises and attracted over 257,000 cumulative visitors. At the results press conference of the fourth Global Digital Trade Expo, Hu Zhenfang, Vice Director of the Zhejiang Provincial Department of Commerce, stated that the expo organized exhibitions, conferences, and competitions around five major areas of digital trade, achieving significant results in "attracting business through conferences," with intentional investment and trade agreements totaling 161.98 billion yuan. The inaugural "Digital Trade Venture Day" was held, bringing together 132 scientific and innovation projects nationwide with 117 investment institutions for matchmaking, resulting in 38 project-capital pairings reaching preliminary cooperation intentions. The Industrial and Commercial Bank of China extended credit lines totaling 19.6 billion yuan to on-site sci-tech enterprises. (Cailian Press) [Post-80s Generation Became the Main Force in Theme Parks During National Day Holiday, Bookings Surged 40%] To welcome the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays, many theme parks across the country launched limited-time events and made refreshed appearances. Data showed that during the National Day holiday, domestic theme park ticket bookings increased nearly 40% YoY. Shanghai Disney Resort, Universal Beijing Resort, Shanghai Haichang Ocean Park, Shanghai Legoland Resort, and Guangzhou Chimelong Resort ranked among the most popular theme parks. Visitors born in the 1980s accounted for the highest proportion, reaching 46%. (CCTV Finance) [Sanya Launched 170 Cultural and Tourism Activities During the "Double Festival"] According to Sanya Release, around the "Double Festival," Sanya focused on traditional culture, marine tourism, and emerging elements to create "featured highlights," planning 170 cultural and tourism activities to provide citizens and tourists with more diverse tourism product options. Additionally, the "Full Moon Over Lucheng, Gifts from Sanya" event was held in landmark venues in major source cities such as Chongqing, Chengdu, Wuhan, Changsha, and Xi'an. During the "Double Festival," over 100,000 portions of coconut water and intangible cultural heritage mooncakes were distributed to citizens and tourists; 20 million yuan in consumption vouchers were issued; various duty-free entities were mobilized to launch special themed activities like "Double Festival Celebration, Discount Feast"; the "2025 'Deer' in Bloom National Day Shopping Festival" was held, featuring special consumption activities in key business districts such as Joy City and Summer Station. Meanwhile, inbound consumption was optimized, with 60 tax-refund shops offering products covering clothing, cosmetics, watches, jewelry, and other categories, providing richer and more convenient shopping options for international tourists. [Hainan Recorded Nearly 400,000 Visa-Free Foreign Entries This Year, Sanya Emerged as a Hot Destination] According to statistics from the Haikou Exit-Entry Frontier Inspection Station, as of September 24, the number of foreigners entering and exiting Hainan this year reached 980,000, a 46.3% increase compared to the same period last year. Among them, visa-free foreign entries totaled 395,000, accounting for 88.8% of all foreign arrivals. Russia, Kazakhstan, South Korea, and other countries are important source markets for inbound tourists to Sanya. Data showed that since the beginning of this year, over 570,000 foreign passengers have entered and exited through Sanya's aviation ports, accounting for 83% of the total inbound and outbound passengers. International News [Trump Met with Congressional Leaders from Both Houses to Discuss Avoiding Government Shutdown] According to CCTV News, US President Trump met with leaders from both houses of Congress at the White House on September 29 local time to discuss avoiding a government shutdown. Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer stated that significant differences exist between them, and Trump has been briefed on their objections. Schumer said whether the government shuts down is up to the Republicans. House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries described it as a candid discussion and stated that Democrats would not support Republican bills that harm healthcare. House Speaker Johnson expressed hope for more time to negotiate. US Vice President Vance described the talks with congressional leaders as "candid" and said disagreements should not lead to a federal government shutdown. [US Bureau of Labor Statistics Warns: No Economic Data to Be Released During Government Shutdown] According to the contingency plan released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) on Monday (September 29), if funding is interrupted, the bureau will completely shut down and cease data collection. All scheduled data releases, such as the monthly nonfarm payroll report, will be suspended. The department estimates it will take half a day to complete shutdown procedures, but tasks related to system backups may take up to three days. At a time when the impact of Trump's policies on the US economy remains highly uncertain, authoritative indicators on employment, inflation, and consumption are particularly critical. Any delays could interfere with major policy decisions, such as whether the US Fed should cut interest rates again at its next meeting. If the US government indeed shuts down after September 30, the first major data release to be affected will be the nonfarm payroll report originally scheduled for October 3 by the BLS. Following closely will be inflation data—the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Additionally, reports from the Census Bureau, such as retail sales and housing starts, also face risks of delay. [Asian Development Bank Revises Down Growth Forecasts for Developing Economies in Asia Pacific] According to CCTV News, on September 30, the Asian Development Bank released the "Asian Development Outlook 2025" (September edition). Compared with the initial report released in April, this report revises down the growth forecast for developing economies in Asia Pacific to 4.8% for 2025 and to 4.5% for 2026. [US President Trump Orders Tariff Hikes on Imported Timber and Cabinets Effective October 14] According to CCTV News, on September 29 local time, US President Trump announced that a 10% tariff will be imposed on imported softwood logs and timber, and an additional 25% tariff will be imposed on imported cabinets, bathroom vanities, and pouch wood products. The new tariffs will take effect on October 14, with some rates set to be raised further starting January 1 next year. The US Department of Commerce had already initiated an investigation into wood and its derivatives (including cabinets and furniture) since March of this year. [Trump Says Netanyahu Has Accepted His Gaza Peace Plan] According to CCTV News, on September 29 local time, US President Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu held a bilateral meeting, after which they held a press conference but did not take questions from reporters. Trump stated that Netanyahu discussed issues related to Iran, trade, the Abraham Accords, and ending the conflict in Gaza. Trump said that Netanyahu has accepted the Gaza peace plan he proposed and that they are very close to reaching an agreement to end the conflict in the Gaza Strip. Trump indicated that if Hamas accepts the Gaza peace plan, he will demand the release of all hostages. Trump said the peace plan includes the return of hostages and the demilitarization of Gaza, and that many Arab leaders agree with the written plan. Trump expressed his belief that Hamas will give a positive response. At the press conference, Netanyahu stated his support for Trump's plan to end the conflict. Netanyahu said the plan aligns with Israel's principles for ending the conflict: Hamas will be disarmed, Gaza will be demilitarized, and it will have a peaceful civil administration. Israel will withdraw its troops based on the extent of Hamas's disarmament. [Egypt and Qatar Deliver US-Proposed Ceasefire Plan to Hamas] According to CCTV News, Cairo News TV reported on the 29th that Egypt and Qatar delivered the US proposal for a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip to the Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas), and Hamas confirmed it is studying the proposal "actively and objectively." An Egyptian security source revealed on the 29th that an Egyptian delegation headed to Qatar that day to present the US President Trump's proposal for a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip to Hamas leaders, awaiting their response before relaying it to both the US and Israel. The source said that Egypt and other Arab countries had made some modifications to the US-proposed plan. [Bank of Japan Meeting Minutes: Growing Calls for Rate Hikes, Will October Be the Time for a Decision?] On Tuesday, the Bank of Japan's September meeting minutes were officially released. The minutes showed that during the monetary policy meeting held on September 18-19, Bank of Japan board members discussed whether interest rates should be raised in the near term, with some members believing the timing for such a move might be approaching—indicating that hawkish forces within the Bank of Japan may be gradually strengthening. The minutes revealed that many members emphasized the importance of remaining vigilant against Japan's increasing inflationary pressures, which raises the possibility of an interest rate hike in October. One member stated, "Looking solely at Japan's economic conditions, given that more than six months have passed since the last rate hike, perhaps now is the time to reconsider raising the policy interest rate." [Data show over 3,000 food items in Japan to rise in price in October] On September 30 local time, private survey agency Teikoku Databank released data indicating that 3,024 food items in Japan are expected to see price increases in October. This marks the first time in half a year that the number of food items rising in price within a single month has exceeded 3,000, following the 4,225 items that increased in price in April. Against the backdrop of soaring rice prices, the category of "alcoholic beverages and drinks," including shochu and sake, saw the largest number of items with price hikes. (CCTV News) Important Data During the National Holiday Period October 1: Data to be released include Australia's September AIG Manufacturing Performance Index, Japan's Q3 Large Manufacturers' Forecast for USD/JPY Average This Fiscal Year, Japan's Q3 Bank of Japan Tankan Large Manufacturing Index, Malaysia's September Manufacturing PMI, France's September SPGI Manufacturing PMI Final, Germany's September SPGI Manufacturing PMI Final, Eurozone's September SPGI Manufacturing PMI Final, UK's September SPGI Manufacturing PMI Final, Eurozone's September Harmonized CPI Year-on-Year - Preliminary Unadjusted, Eurozone's September Core Harmonized CPI Year-on-Year - Preliminary Unadjusted, US September ADP Employment Change, Brazil's September SPGI Manufacturing PMI, US September SPGI Manufacturing PMI Final, US September ISM Manufacturing PMI, Mexico's September SPGI Manufacturing PMI, among others. Key events to watch: 2027 FOMC voter, Richmond Fed President Barkin speaks on the economic outlook; 2027 FOMC voter, Richmond Fed President Barkin speaks on the economic outlook; 2026 FOMC voter, Dallas Fed President Logan delivers remarks; Fed Vice Chair Jefferson speaks; US imposes additional tariffs on pharmaceuticals, furniture, and heavy-duty trucks; US government faces shutdown crisis . Additionally, Hong Kong Exchanges is closed on October 1 for National Day, with northbound and southbound trading suspended. October 2: Data to be released include Australia's August Goods and Services Trade Balance, Australia's August Import and Export Month-on-Month, Switzerland's September CPI Year-on-Year, Eurozone's August Unemployment Rate , US September Challenger Job Cuts, US Initial Jobless Claims for the Week Ending September 27 , US Continued Jobless Claims for the Week Ending September 20, US August Durable Goods Orders Month-on-Month Revision, US August Factory Orders Month-on-Month, among others. Also to watch: 2027 FOMC voter and Richmond Fed President Barkin speaks on the economic outlook; Bank of Canada releases the minutes of its September monetary policy meeting ; Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Kazuo delivers a speech; 2026 FOMC voter and Dallas Fed President Logan gives a speech; European Political Community summit takes place. In addition, on October 2, the Hong Kong Exchange is open as usual for the National Day holiday, with southbound and northbound trading closed. October 3: To be released Japan's August unemployment rate , global September ANZ commodity price index year-on-year, Russia's October SPGI services PMI, UK's October SPGI services PMI final reading, US September nonfarm payroll change seasonally adjusted, US September average hourly earnings year-on-year, US September private nonfarm payroll change, US September labor force participation rate, US September manufacturing payroll change seasonally adjusted, US September unemployment rate , Brazil's October seasonally adjusted SPGI services PMI, US September ISM non-manufacturing PMI, and other data. To watch: Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Kazuo visits Osaka and holds a press conference; FOMC permanent voter and New York Fed President Williams speaks at a farewell seminar hosted by Dutch Central Bank Governor Knot; Bank of England Governor Bailey delivers a speech. In addition, on October 3, the Hong Kong Exchange is open as usual for the National Day holiday, with southbound and northbound trading closed. October 4: To be released US total rig count for the week ending October 3, US oil rig count for the week ending October 3, and other data. To watch: Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party holds its leadership election. October 5: To watch: Australia begins daylight saving time, with financial market trading hours and economic data release times moved one hour earlier than standard time; Saudi Aramco announces official crude oil selling prices around the 5th of each month; OPEC+ eight oil-producing countries hold a meeting on oil production policy. October 6: To be released France's August trade balance, Switzerland's September unadjusted unemployment rate, Switzerland's September seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, euro zone October Sentix investor confidence index, euro zone August retail sales month-on-month, euro zone August retail sales year-on-year, global September industrial production cycle turning point leading indicator, global September supply chain pressure index, and other data. In addition, on October 6, the Hong Kong Exchange is open as usual for the National Day holiday, with southbound and northbound trading closed. October 7: China's September foreign exchange reserves (released irregularly on October 7), China's September gold reserves, Australia's ANZ consumer confidence index for the week ending October 5, Canada's September leading indicator month-on-month, US August trade balance, Canada's August trade balance, Canada's September IVEY seasonally adjusted PMI, Canada's September IVEY unadjusted PMI, US September New York Fed one-year inflation expectations, US September New York Fed three-year inflation expectations, and other data. The Hong Kong Exchange was closed for one day on October 7 due to the Mid-Autumn Festival holiday, with southbound and northbound trading suspended. October 8: Data to be released include Japan’s August trade balance (seasonally adjusted by the central bank based on customs data), New Zealand’s official cash rate decision on October 8, Germany’s August seasonally adjusted industrial production month-on-month rate, Germany’s August working-day-adjusted industrial production year-on-year rate, and the US October IPSOS Primary Consumer Sentiment Index (PCSI). Also to watch: the EIA releases its monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook report; the Reserve Bank of New Zealand announces its interest rate decision ; RBNZ Governor Orr holds a monetary policy press conference; US Fed Governor Barr delivers a speech; Bank of Japan Governor Ueda attends the Paris European Financial Markets Association International Finance Forum. In addition, the Hong Kong Exchange will operate normally on October 8 for the National Day holiday, with southbound and northbound trading suspended. Recommended Reading: