[SMM Analysis]Weak Supply-Demand Pattern; Secondary Aluminum Prices Were Expected to Come Under Pressure and Pull Back in April

Overall, cost support remained strong, supply tightened while demand stayed stable. As tender prices became clear, aluminum fluoride prices were generally raised by around 800 yuan/mt in line with the guidance. Going forward, close attention should be paid to dynamic changes in raw material costs and adjustments in downstream procurement pace.

According to data from the CPCA, lithium battery exports reached 926,000 mt in January-February 2026, up 63%, while export value rose 43% to $14.2 billion. The export price of lithium-ion batteries fell from $27,300/mt in 2023 and $20,100/mt in 2024 to $15,700/mt, and further to $15,300/mt in 2026. The average price in 2026 declined only 10% YoY, a marked improvement from the 26% drop in 2024 and the 22% drop in 2025.

This week, ferrous metals were in the doldrums. The main logic during the week remained weakening cost support. On Tuesday, Iran proposed charging transit fees for the Strait of Hormuz, while Trump made conciliatory remarks, saying that “even if the Strait of Hormuz remained largely closed, he would still be willing to end military action against Iran.” Market expectations for tighter crude oil supply weakened, and declines in the energy sector dragged down the coal sector, weakening the cost-side logic. During the week, inventories of the five major steel products continued to decline, but apparent demand remained at a low level for the same period in previous years, providing limited fundamental-driven momentum to futures. In the spot market, purchasing interest was average, mainly focused on restocking at low prices. Spot prices were relatively firm, and the spot-futures price spread widened somewhat......

Recent 'EIA' data shows rooftop solar now makes up 20% of Puerto Rico's power capacity (1,456 MW), surpassing natural gas as the second-largest source. Between 2016 and 2025, distributed solar accounted for 81% of all new capacity. To combat frequent grid outages, residents have deployed over 171,000 battery systems (2,864 MWh), with many joining grid operator LUMA's virtual power plant ('VPP') program. Despite this progress, new legislation extended the territory's sole coal plant to 2032 and removed interim renewable targets, though the 100% goal for 2050 remains.

Next Monday, markets outside China will be closed for one day on April 6 for the Easter holiday, including the LME and other exchanges. Meanwhile, China will also be in the Qingming Festival holiday, with the SHFE and other exchanges likewise closed. In terms of macroeconomic data, key releases include China’s March CPI YoY and the US March non-seasonally adjusted CPI YoY, while the US Fed will also release the minutes of its monetary policy meeting. LME lead, geopolitical tensions outside China have repeatedly resurfaced and the situation remained relatively severe, with the impact on energy, shipping, and other areas continuing. China’s lead ingot import window had remained open for a long time, attracting overseas lead ingot inflows into the Chinese market and reducing spot lead circulation in Southeast Asia and other markets. Especially during periods of rising LME lead, LME Cash-3M contango further narrowed WoW to -$20.77/mt, which will support lead prices to hold up well. LME lead is expected to trade at $1,890-1,965/mt next week. SHFE lead, lead ingot supply is expected to increase in April, but the consumption side is facing the traditional off-season. Coupled with the Qingming Festival holiday, when downstream enterprises will be on holiday, the risk of post-holiday lead ingot inventory buildup will rise, which will weigh on the upward momentum of lead prices. In addition, delivery of the SHFE lead 2604 contract will come onto the agenda after the holiday, and attention should be paid to changes in plant warehouse lead ingot inventory into visible inventory, with caution against lead prices retreating after rapid rise. The most-traded SHFE lead contract is expected to trade at 16,500-16,900 yuan/mt next week. Spot price forecast: 16,350-16,700 yuan/mt. During the Qingming Festival holiday, many downstream enterprises plan to take time off, leading to a temporary absence of lead consumption. Together with the approaching traditional off-season, downstream enterprises will maintain purchase as needed. On the supply side, production at primary lead and secondary lead enterprises will rise steadily, while imported lead continues to flow into China, making it possible for spot discounts for lead to widen.

Thu, 02-Apr-2026 12:23 Gold investing sentiment never stronger outside financial or Covid crisis... GOLD's SHARPEST price drop in 13 years just saw a record number of investors buy the precious metal on BullionVault as the US and Israel went to war with Iran, writes Adrian Ash at the world-leading marketplace. Private investors have seized on gold's price drop because this sudden retreat has given buyers the chance to reset the clock back before January's historic price spike. After setting new all-time highs and rising for 9 months in a row − gold's longest-ever run of unbroken gains − the price of gold sank by 11.8% in March (-10.5% in UK Pounds, -9.7% in Euros) as the oil-price shock drove profit-taking by central banks, institutional investors and traders needing to cover losses in stocks and bonds. Jumping on the price drop, the number of investors choosing to buy gold on BullionVault − now used by 130,000 private investors worldwide and finding 9-in-10 of its clients in Western Europe and North America − rose by almost one-fifth from February's count (+18.2%). That meant buyers topped this New Year's previous record and outnumbered sellers (who rose 0.4%) nearly 3-to-1. It also means that investing sentiment in gold has only been stronger at the peak of the financial crisis and then the Covid pandemic. Tracking the number of buyers versus sellers on BullionVault each month, the Gold Investor Index is a unique gauge of sentiment built solely from actual gold trading decisions. Rebased so that a reading of 50.0 would signal a perfect balance of buyers and sellers, the Global Gold Investor Index set a lifetime high of 71.7 in September 2011, and it hit a series low of 47.5 in March 2024 when gold prices rose to what were then fresh record prices in the absence of any notable economic or financial stress. This March the Gold Investor Index rose to 60.7, adding 2.3 points to reach its highest reading since August 2020 and extending the uptrend begun on the eve of the US presidential election in autumn 2024 . Having risen so sharply during Trump's first year back in the White House, gold has shocked many observers by falling during the Iran War so far. But while gold now faces headwinds from higher inflation threatening a rise in interest rates, the danger of economic stagflation only boosts the need to spread portfolio risk as the geopolitical order breaks down. The breadth of demand says that gold remains a compelling investment in today's uncertain and increasingly dangerous world. In contrast to gold, investing sentiment in silver fell in March as the more industrially-useful precious metal sank in price, with BullionVault's gauge dropping to a 4-month low. But that still put the Silver Investor Index at 60.1, greater than all but 12 of the series' 170 previous monthly readings. Silver's price crash of 19.2% in US Dollar terms was its worst 1-month loss since September 2011 (the worst in GBP since Sept '11 at 17.5%; the worst since March 2020 in EUR at 16.8%). In response, investors using BullionVault bought almost 1.5 tonnes more than they sold as a group, taking total client holdings to 1,134 tonnes worth more than $2.6bn (£2.0bn, €2.3bn). Gold's price drop meanwhile saw BullionVault users buy more gold than they sold by weight for the first time since October, growing their total holdings by 0.2% to more than 43.4 tonnes worth $6.4 billion (£4.8bn, €5.5bn). New account openings fell by 1/3rd from February's figure (-33.2%) and totalled less than 2/5ths of January's all-time record (-60.5%). But March still marked the 8th strongest month for first-time users of BullionVault in the West London fintech's 21-year history. Altogether, the first 3 months of 2026 have now brought more new customers to BullionVault than all but 3 full calendar years since it opened in April 2005. Adrian Ash Adrian Ash is director of research at BullionVault, the world-leading physical gold, silver, platinum and palladium market for private investors online. Formerly head of editorial at London's top publisher of private-investment advice, he was City correspondent for The Daily Reckoning from 2003 to 2008, and he has now been researching and writing daily analysis of precious metals and the wider financial markets for over 20 years. A frequent guest on BBC radio and television, Adrian is regularly quoted by the Financial Times , MarketWatch and many other respected news outlets, and his views from inside the bullion market have been sought by the Economist magazine, CNBC, Bloomberg, Germany's Handelsblatt and FAZ , plus Italy's Il Sole 24 Ore. See the full archive of Adrian Ash articles on GoldNews. Please Note: All articles published here are to inform your thinking, not lead it. Only you can decide the best place for your money, and any decision you make will put your money at risk. Information or data included here may have already been overtaken by events – and must be verified elsewhere – should you choose to act on it. Please review our Terms & Conditions for accessing Gold News . Source: https://www.bullionvault.com/gold-news/gold-investor-index/buy-gold-iran-war-040220261

The gold price set a technical signal last week while providing fresh fuel for the debate over its future direction.

This week, the nickel market generally showed a pattern of "falling first and then rebounding, moving sideways within a range," with an intense tug-of-war between longs and shorts. The core fluctuation range of the most-traded SHFE nickel contract was around 133,000-138,000 yuan/mt, down 1.82% on a weekly basis, while the LME nickel 3M contract also fluctuated lower this week, down 0.67%. In the spot market, the average SMM #1 refined nickel price was 136,600 yuan/mt this week, down 3,300 yuan/mt WoW. Jinchuan nickel premiums weakened sharply, falling all the way from 5,000 yuan/mt at the beginning of the week to 3,650 yuan/mt on Friday, with the weekly average at about 3,900 yuan/mt. Against the backdrop of high inventory in China, imported cargoes still faced circulation pressure, suppliers showed stronger willingness to sell, and premiums declined in tandem. Overall spot transactions were sluggish. With the Qingming Festival approaching and prices remaining high, downstream buyers showed insufficient purchasing enthusiasm, with rigid demand dominating. On the macro front, at the end of Q1 2026, US economic data showed stronger-than-expected resilience, undermining market confidence in a US Fed interest rate cut before June. This supported a stronger US dollar in the short term and put valuation pressure on commodities such as nickel. China's official manufacturing PMI for March came in at 50.5%, remaining in expansion territory for a second consecutive month, indicating signs of a manufacturing recovery. Repeated fluctuations in the Middle East situation have caused oil price fluctuations, driving swings in overall risk appetite across the commodities market, and nickel prices showed a relatively strong linkage to financial factors. Inventory side, Shanghai Bonded Zone inventory was about 1,700 mt this week, flat WoW. China's social inventory was about 92,000 mt, with an inventory buildup of about 1,800 mt WoW. In the short term, nickel prices are expected to remain in a tug-of-war pattern of "strong support from the cost floor, weak actual demand, and policy-driven sentiment disruptions," making rangebound fluctuations more likely. The core fluctuation range of the most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to be 130,000-138,000 yuan/mt.

[SMM Daily Brief Review of Coking Coal and Coke] In terms of supply, coking coal costs for coke producers declined somewhat, and with the first round of coke price increases now fully implemented, losses at coke producers narrowed significantly, boosting production enthusiasm. Coke supply increased steadily, while downstream demand remained moderate, shipments were smooth, and producers' own inventory continued to decline. Demand side, steel mill blast furnaces gradually resumed production, and daily average hot metal production continued to increase, driving up rigid demand for coke. However, steel mills have recently seen good coke arrivals, with most mills' coke inventory at mid-range levels and overall procurement sentiment remaining average. In summary, coke market fundamentals have shifted toward looser supply and demand, and coupled with weaker recent cost support for coke, the coke market may remain temporarily stable in the short term, with further price increases facing greater difficulty.