Every $10 increase in crude oil prices is expected to raise the per-ton extraction cost of large iron ore mines by an average of $0.3, while the cost for small mines is expected to rise by about $2.85. High-cost small mines, especially iron concentrate producers, will be very vulnerable when facing cost shocks, and mines with different product types will face varying degrees of impact.

Gold, long considered a reliable hedge against market volatility, has lost its luster as a safe-haven asset and now acts as a "high-beta asset" that actually amplifies market selloffs, according to economist Robin Brooks of the Brookings Institution.

The gold price is currently in a field of tension that appears contradictory at first glance:

Iran’s threat to drive oil prices up to $200 a barrel may sound like hyperbole, but as the energy crisis persisted, that outcome already looked more likely than US President Trump’s prediction that oil prices would soon pull back to pre-war levels… The conflict involving Israel and the US against Iran entered its third week — and escalated into one spanning the entire Middle East — yet the global oil benchmark’s response so far was surprisingly “mediocre.” Brent crude oil was currently trading near $100 a barrel, up about 65 from the start of the year. Although that level would have been unimaginable just a few weeks ago, it still remained below last Monday’s brief peak of nearly $120. Given that since the conflict began, the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz had trapped about one-fifth of global oil supply — roughly 20 million barrels a day — crude oil prices should, in theory, have been much higher. That seemed to suggest investors still retained a degree of trust in Trump , betting that the crisis would be resolved quickly and that the Strait of Hormuz would soon reopen — whether it was called the “Trump put,” the “TACO trade,” or “buy Trump,” many oil traders appeared to be wagering that the president would ultimately be able to limit the market damage. “When this is over, oil prices will come down very, very quickly,” Trump said on Monday this week. Yet that optimism looked increasingly difficult to reconcile with realities on the ground — whether on a battlefield where the conflict was intensifying, or in the physical oil market, where supply bottlenecks were steadily spreading. Signals Being Overlooked In fact, the physical crude oil market was sending an increasing number of stress signals, even though the international benchmark “paper oil” market had so far largely ignored them. Although trade had stalled under the impact of the Iran conflict, Middle Eastern crude benchmarks still surged to record highs, making them the most expensive crude in the world. The spike in these benchmark indicators, which are used to price millions of barrels of Middle Eastern crude sold to Asia, was raising costs for Asian refiners and forcing them to seek alternatives or make further production cuts in the coming months. S&P Global Platts said Dubai spot crude assessments for May-loading cargoes hit a record $157.66 a barrel on Tuesday, surpassing the previous all-time high of $147.5 set by Brent crude oil futures in 2008. That left Dubai crude’s premium to swaps at $60.82 a barrel, compared with an average premium of just 90¢ in February. Meanwhile, Oman crude oil futures hit a record high of $152.58 per barrel on Tuesday, with its premium to the Dubai swap set at $55.74 per barrel, versus an average premium of just 75¢ in February. Oman crude oil is exported from a terminal outside the Strait of Hormuz. This surge reflected massive uncertainty over actually available supply in the Middle East after Iran repeatedly attacked Oman's oil terminal and the UAE's major oil export terminal of Fujairah outside the Strait of Hormuz. Are Brent and WTI Failing to Reflect the "True Severity" of the Oil Market? As JPMorgan's head of commodities, Natasha Kaneva, pointed out in her latest research note on Tuesday , there was a clear mismatch between international benchmark crude pricing and the Middle Eastern geography of the supply disruptions. The core issue was that Brent and WTI are benchmark indicators at opposite ends of the Atlantic basin, while the current shock is concentrated in the Middle East. As a result, these benchmark crude prices were particularly influenced by relatively loose regional fundamentals—commercial oil inventory in both the US and Europe were ample in early 2026, and supply across the Atlantic basin was also relatively abundant in the short term. In addition, expectations for a release from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR)—as well as a partial release that will soon materialize—further eased prompt tightness in Brent- and WTI-linked markets. By contrast, Middle Eastern crude benchmarks such as Dubai and Oman more accurately reflected the current dislocation in the physical market. Dubai and Oman spot prices were both trading above $150 per barrel, underscoring the severity of crude oil shortages originating in the Gulf region. These Middle Eastern oil prices were directly affected by export disruptions and therefore more effectively reflected marginal supply deficits than Atlantic-linked crude prices. Crucially, trade geography intensified this dynamic. Most of the crude transported via the Strait of Hormuz goes to Asia—before the outbreak of the Middle East conflict, about 11.2 million barrels of crude and 1.4 million barrels of refined products flowed through the strait to Asia each day. As a result, the direct physical shortage—and the surge in oil prices—was concentrated in Asian markets most dependent on Gulf crude. In fact, early signs of demand destruction had already emerged in Asia as product prices surged and spot crude became prohibitively expensive. JPMorgan noted that timing effects further reinforced this divergence. A typical voyage from Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries to Asia takes about 10 to 15 days, while cargoes bound for Europe via the Suez Canal require nearly 25 to 30 days, or 35 to 45 days if rerouted around the Cape of Good Hope. Therefore, the impact of disrupted Gulf flows would hit Asian markets sooner and more severely, while Atlantic Basin benchmarks such as Brent and WTI would enjoy a longer buffer because of surplus inventory and slower supply adjustments. The US, with crude oil production exceeding 13 million barrels per day, would be affected the least. JPMorgan believed that, in this context, the apparent price stability shown by Brent and WTI should not be taken as evidence of adequate global supply. It reflected a temporary buffer created by regional surplus inventory, benchmark composition, and policy intervention. In fact, for refiners, especially those in Asia, the current crude oil shortage had already become a serious problem. About 60% of the region’s crude oil imports depended on the Middle East, and the difficulty of finding alternative, timely supplies was rapidly becoming acute. The pressure had already forced many countries into painful adjustments. Refiners across Asia had begun cutting run rates to conserve dwindling inventory. Some countries had banned exports of refined products, a defensive move that could further tighten the global market. As the crude oil shortage worsened, refined product prices surged. Asian jet fuel prices were approaching $200 a barrel, near the record high of about $220 reached earlier this month. The Crisis Could Spread Further Ultimately, this crisis was expected to extend beyond Asia. Data from analytics firm Kpler showed that Europe accounted for about three-quarters of Middle Eastern jet fuel exports shipped through the Strait of Hormuz last year—about 379,000 barrels per day—but since the conflict began, no such cargoes had passed through the strait. Unsurprisingly, jet fuel barge prices in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp refining hub had surged to a record $190 a barrel, exceeding the previous peak set after the Russia-Ukraine conflict in February 2022. The comparison with the Russia-Ukraine crisis may be even more compelling. Before the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, Russia supplied about 30% of Europe’s crude oil imports and one-third of its refined product imports. As traders feared Europe would lose supplies from one of the world’s largest oil producers, Brent crude rose to $130 a barrel after the Russia-Ukraine conflict—even though that worst-case scenario never fully materialized in the end. By contrast, according to Morgan Stanley, the physical disruption caused by the Iran conflict had already exceeded that level of concern by more than threefold. Even if the Strait of Hormuz were to reopen immediately, it would not bring immediate relief. According to the International Energy Agency, about 10 million barrels per day of production in the Middle East has been shut in since the conflict began. Restoring these flows will take weeks, if not months. To be sure, the oil market entered the Iran conflict in a relatively loose state, and the International Energy Agency had projected that global supply would exceed demand by about 3.7 million barrels per day. But that surplus has now been erased by the current turmoil. Last week, the International Energy Agency announced plans to release a record 400 million barrels from member countries' strategic petroleum reserves, which will help cushion the initial shock. But drawing down inventories cannot substitute for deliveries of new oil. In other words, the supply shock to the oil market is real and may persist. Once the Strait of Hormuz finally reopens, oil prices could initially plunge in a relief rebound, but given the harsh realities of the physical market, traders may need to think twice before betting that the return to normalcy promised by Trump is about to arrive…

UBS’s latest research warned that if the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz persists, global crude oil and refined product inventories will fall to historic lows by month-end April, and Brent crude prices could then climb to above $150 per barrel, with further upside risk.

Gold prices fall due to interest rate gloom and Middle East tensions. US Fed and major central banks likely to maintain current interest rates. Long-term gold outlook positive, seen as a hedge against risks.

March 13 (Reuters) - Gold was on track for a second straight weekly loss, even as it edged higher on Friday, as surging oil prices dampened rate cut bets and caused investors to cover margin calls, while a rising dollar and U.S. yields also pressured prices.

SMM April 29 Report: Metal Market: Overnight, metals in both domestic and overseas markets generally rose, with SHFE tin being the sole decliner, dropping by 0.23%. SHFE nickel led the gains among domestic base metals with a 0.43% increase. LME lead led the gains in the overseas market with a 1.67% increase, while LME nickel rose by 0.9%. The gains of other metals fluctuated slightly. Most metals in the ferrous metals series declined, with iron ore being the sole riser, increasing by 0.57%. HRC fell by 0.55%. In the coking coal and coke sector, coking coal fell by 1.57%, and coke fell by 0.73%. In the precious metals sector, supported by bargain-hunting buying, COMEX gold rose by 1.71%, and COMEX silver rose by 0.2%. Domestically, SHFE gold rose by 1.57%, and SHFE silver rose by 0.48%. Overnight closing prices as of 6:46 a.m. on April 29 》Click to view SMM Futures Data Dashboard Macro Front Domestic Aspects: [Four Ministries Jointly Voice on Stabilizing Employment and the Economy] ① Zhao Chenxin, National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC): China will introduce and implement measures to stabilize employment, the economy, and promote high-quality development; ② Yu Jiadong, Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security: In Q1, 3.08 million new jobs were created in urban areas nationwide; ③ Sheng Qiuping, Ministry of Commerce: The implementation of the trade-in policy for consumer goods has collectively boosted consumption by over 720 billion yuan; ④ Zou Lan, People's Bank of China (PBOC): RRR cuts and interest rate cuts will be implemented in a timely manner based on domestic and overseas economic conditions and the operation of financial markets. 》Click to view details [Pan Gongsheng: Will Implement Moderately Accommodative Monetary Policy to Promote High-Quality Development of China's Economy] The State Council Information Office held a press conference at 10 a.m. today. Zhao Chenxin, Deputy Director of the NDRC, Yu Jiadong, Deputy Minister of the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security, Sheng Qiuping, Deputy Minister of the Ministry of Commerce, and Zou Lan, Deputy Governor of the PBOC, introduced policy measures to stabilize employment, the economy, and promote high-quality development, and answered questions from reporters. Zhao Chenxin, NDRC: China will introduce and implement measures to stabilize employment, the economy, and promote high-quality development; Yu Jiadong, Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security: In Q1, 3.08 million new jobs were created in urban areas nationwide; Sheng Qiuping, Ministry of Commerce: The implementation of the trade-in policy for consumer goods has collectively boosted consumption by over 720 billion yuan; Zou Lan, PBOC: RRR cuts and interest rate cuts will be implemented in a timely manner based on domestic and overseas economic conditions and the operation of financial markets. 》Click to view details US Dollar Aspects: The US dollar fell by 0.69% overnight as investors cautiously awaited further news on US trade policies and prepared for a week packed with economic data that could provide initial indications of whether US trade policies are having an impact. As US policies have shaken confidence in the reliability of US assets, the US dollar is on track for its largest monthly decline since last July. Investors are also awaiting the release of the US April employment report on Friday, which is expected to show continued job growth, albeit at a significantly slower pace than a month ago. Federal Reserve officials, including Chairman Powell, have indicated their willingness to cut interest rates if risks to economic growth become apparent. However, most officials seem more inclined to first determine the impact of tariff policies on real economy indicators such as inflation and employment before taking action. This week, the US will also release Q1 GDP data and the core PCE, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, while Europe will release GDP and preliminary inflation data. (Wenhua Comprehensive) Other Currency Aspects: The euro fell by 0.4% against the pound to 0.8503 pounds after news emerged on Monday of a widespread power outage in large parts of Spain. On the other hand, the Bank of Japan will set monetary policy on Thursday. No policy changes are expected, but the market will focus on the outlook and how policymakers plan to respond to the uncertain economic environment, especially as US-Japan trade negotiations are expected to involve currency issues. Macro Aspects: Today, data including the initial value of the US March wholesale inventories monthly rate, the US April Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, the US March JOLTs job openings, the eurozone March seasonally adjusted money supply M3 annual rate, the eurozone April Economic Sentiment Index, the eurozone April Industrial Sentiment Index, the final value of the eurozone April Consumer Confidence Index, and the Germany May Gfk Consumer Confidence Index will be released. In addition, on April 29, the Tokyo Stock Exchange in Japan will be closed for the Showa Day holiday. Crude Oil Aspects: Oil prices in both markets fell overnight, with US crude dropping by 1.79% and Brent crude falling by 1.93%. Economic concerns triggered by global trade conflicts have put pressure on demand. John Evans, an analyst at brokerage firm PVM, said that trade conflicts are dominating investor sentiment, influencing oil price trends, overshadowing the impact of nuclear negotiations between the US and Iran and internal divisions within the OPEC+ alliance. Some OPEC+ members are expected to recommend accelerating production increases for the second consecutive month at the May 5 meeting. Aldo Spanjer, an analyst at BNP Paribas, said in a report: "Since our forecast last month, market sentiment has turned more bearish, with more aggressive OPEC+ production easing—and the accompanying doubts about OPEC unity—being the main changes." BNP Paribas expects Brent crude prices to be in the high end of the $60 per barrel range in Q2 this year. (Wenhua Comprehensive)

SMM April 25 News: Metal Market: By the close of the day, most base metals in the domestic market rose, with only SHFE copper falling by 0.28%. SHFE tin led the gains with a 1.14% increase, followed by SHFE zinc, which rose by 0.93%. SHFE aluminum increased by 0.63%, while other metals saw slight gains. The main contract for alumina fell by 0.45%. Additionally, the main contract for lithium carbonate dropped by 0.32%, polysilicon fell by 1.84%, and silicon metal declined by 0.85%. The main contract for European container shipping fell by 2.92%. In the ferrous metals series, prices collectively declined, with iron ore leading the drop at 1.87%, and stainless steel falling by 0.59%. In the coking coal and coke sector, coking coal rose by 0.05%, while coke fell by 1.29%. In the overseas market, as of 15:04, base metals showed mixed performance. LME aluminum rose by 0.76%, LME tin increased by 0.29%, and LME lead fell by 0.18%, leading the decline. Other metals experienced minor fluctuations. In the precious metals sector, as of 15:04, COMEX gold fell by 1.1%, and COMEX silver dropped by 0.5%. Domestically, SHFE gold declined by 0.15%, and SHFE silver fell by 0.16%. As of 15:04 today's market: Click to view SMM Market Dashboard Macro Front: Domestic: [The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee Holds Meeting to Analyze Current Economic Situation and Economic Work] The meeting emphasized adhering to the general principle of seeking progress while maintaining stability, fully and accurately implementing the new development philosophy, accelerating the construction of a new development pattern, coordinating domestic economic work and international economic and trade struggles, resolutely managing our own affairs, and resolutely expanding high-level opening-up. Efforts should focus on stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations, using the certainty of high-quality development to counter the uncertainty of rapid changes in the external environment. Click for details [Pan Gongsheng: Implement a Moderately Loose Monetary Policy to Promote High-Quality Development of China's Economy] According to the central bank's official website, the second G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting of 2025 was held in Washington, D.C., on April 23-24. The meeting discussed the global economic outlook, improving the international financial architecture, and addressing development and growth challenges in Africa. Pan Gongsheng, Governor of the People's Bank of China, attended and spoke at the meeting, while Deputy Governor Xuan Changneng also participated. Participants noted that the global economy continues to recover, but downside risks have significantly increased, with trade tensions, tightening financing conditions, and long-term structural challenges intertwined. Concerns were raised about the negative impacts of escalating trade frictions, and calls were made to strengthen dialogue and policy coordination, improve the multilateral trading system, and seek solutions that benefit all parties. Support was expressed for building a more stable, efficient, and resilient international financial architecture, enhancing the financing capacity of multilateral development banks, and continuing to provide development financing. Pan Gongsheng emphasized that economic fragmentation and trade tensions continue to disrupt industrial and supply chains, weakening global growth momentum. Trade wars and tariff wars have no winners, and major economies should strengthen participation in international macroeconomic and financial policy coordination, take substantive actions to promote international cooperation, and maintain global economic and financial stability. The Chinese economy has started the year well, maintaining a recovery trend, with stable financial market operations. The People's Bank of China will implement a moderately loose monetary policy to promote high-quality development of China's economy. ► On April 25, the central parity rate of the RMB in the interbank foreign exchange market was 7.2066 yuan per US dollar. US Dollar: As of 15:04, the US dollar index rose by 0.33%, potentially ending a four-week decline. Data released by the US Labor Department on Thursday showed that initial jobless claims for the week ending April 19 were 222,000, in line with market expectations. Despite the shadow cast by chaotic trade policies, the labor market remains resilient. However, President Trump's shifting tariff stance has heightened economic uncertainty, significantly weakening business and consumer confidence, which may impact spending and lead to layoffs. On April 24, Christopher Waller, a member of the US Federal Reserve Board, warned that the trade war initiated by President Trump could soon lead to rising unemployment. Waller stated that if tariffs remain at current levels, they will not significantly affect the US economy before July. However, if the Trump administration reverts to aggressive tariff levels, businesses may begin layoffs, and if unemployment rises sharply, he would support an interest rate cut. (Comprehensive report by Wenhua) Data: Today, the UK's seasonally adjusted retail sales month-on-month for March, the UK's seasonally adjusted core retail sales month-on-month for March, Canada's retail sales month-on-month for February, Canada's core retail sales month-on-month for February, and the final US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for April will be released. Additionally, it is worth noting that Swiss National Bank President Schlegel will deliver a speech, and global financial leaders will attend the IMF-World Bank Spring Meetings until April 26. Crude Oil: As of 15:04, oil prices in both markets rose, with US oil up by 0.51% and Brent oil up by 0.47%, marking the second consecutive day of gains. However, due to concerns over supply surplus, weekly performance is expected to decline. Analyst Anh Pham stated, "Today, oil prices rose slightly as the market reacted to signs of easing tariff tensions under Trump and potential shifts in the Fed's policy stance, which aided broader market recovery." He added, "But on a weekly basis, oil prices are down due to persistent concerns over OPEC+ supply surplus and uncertain demand prospects amid ongoing trade tensions. A stronger US dollar also added pressure to crude prices." The market is also monitoring progress in US-Iran negotiations. If sanctions on Iranian oil exports are lifted, oil supply is expected to increase. Iran is OPEC's third-largest oil producer, after Saudi Arabia and Iraq. (Comprehensive report by Wenhua) SMM Daily Review: ► April 25: SHFE aluminum breaks through the 20,000 mark, processing fees under pressure, transactions shift to volume discount [Aluminum Billet Spot Daily Review] ► [SMM MHP Daily Review] April 25: Indonesian MHP prices rebound ► [SMM Nickel Sulphate Daily Review] April 25: Nickel sulphate prices remain stable ► Weak demand dominates, stainless steel prices continue to fall after hitting bottom [SMM Stainless Steel Spot Daily Review] ► Silver prices continue to hold up well, spot market maintains high premium quotes [SMM Daily Review]

SMM April 16 News: In the metal market, both domestic and overseas metal markets generally fell overnight, with only LME nickel and SHFE nickel rising. LME nickel increased by 1.49%, and SHFE nickel rose by 0.97%. Other metals declined, with LME zinc down by 0.83%, LME lead and LME tin both dropping by more than 0.7% (LME lead fell by 0.76%, LME tin decreased by 0.72%), and the rest of the metals saw declines of less than 0.7%. The main alumina contract rose by 0.78%. In the ferrous metals series, the performance was mixed, with stainless steel up by 0.16%, and iron ore flat at 709 yuan/mt. In the coking coal and coke sector, coking coal fell by 0.61%, while coke increased by 1.42%. In the precious metals sector, COMEX gold rose by 0.64% overnight, and after opening on the morning of April 16, it continued to climb, repeatedly hitting new historical highs. By around 8:10, COMEX gold reached a peak of $3,273.2/oz. COMEX silver increased by 0.43%. Domestically, SHFE gold rose by 0.73%, reaching a historical high of 766.86 yuan/g, continuing to set new records, and SHFE silver increased by 0.59%. As of 6:42 on April 16, the overnight closing market. Click to view the SMM futures data dashboard. On the macro front, domestically, the "Qiushi" magazine published an important article by General Secretary Xi Jinping titled "Accelerating the Construction of a Cultural Power," which outlines five aspects for accelerating the construction of a cultural power. First, unwaveringly follow the path of socialist cultural development with Chinese characteristics. Second, focus on stimulating the cultural innovation and creativity of the entire nation. Third, always keep cultural construction focused on and rooted in people. Fourth, continue the Chinese cultural heritage through creative transformation and innovative development. Fifth, continuously enhance the national cultural soft power and the influence of Chinese culture. Premier Li Qiang of the State Council conducted a survey in Beijing on April 15, emphasizing the need to calmly respond to the difficulties and challenges brought by external shocks, to promote consumption, expand domestic demand, and strengthen the domestic circulation with greater efforts, further unleashing the vitality and potential of China's super-large market. Additionally, Li Qiang emphasized the need to focus on promoting the construction of "good houses," accelerate the establishment of a new model for real estate development, and promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market. Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian presided over a regular press conference on April 15, emphasizing that China is the market of the world and an opportunity for all countries. Faced with external uncertainties, China will persist in "shaking hands" rather than "waving fists," "dismantling walls" rather than "building fortresses," and "connecting" rather than "decoupling." In terms of the US dollar, it rose by 0.46% overnight. Tuesday's data showed that US import prices unexpectedly fell in March due to rising energy product costs. Trading has been relatively calm so far this week, but investors remain cautious as they await further clarity on tariffs. Most US markets will be closed for the Good Friday holiday this Friday, but the foreign exchange market will remain open. Investors are currently awaiting a speech by Fed Chairman Powell scheduled for Wednesday for more clues on the interest rate path. In other currencies, the US dollar rose against the euro and yen on Tuesday, showing temporary signs of rebound after the US dollar index fell by more than 3% last week. However, investors remain cautious due to concerns about the impact of US President Trump's trade tariffs on the US economy. The European Central Bank is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at the end of its two-day meeting on Thursday. The US dollar rose by 0.12% against the yen to 143.16 yen, not far from the six-month low of 142.05 hit last Friday. The US dollar rose by 0.91% against the Swiss franc to 0.822 francs, after falling to a 10-year low last week. The pound rose by 0.15% to $1.3209, having earlier touched $1.3252, the highest since October 3. The Australian dollar rose by 0.32% against the US dollar to $0.6345; the New Zealand dollar rose by 0.39% against the US dollar to $0.5899, having earlier touched $0.5943, the highest since November 13. In terms of data, today will see the release of China's March industrial added value year-to-date, March total retail sales of consumer goods year-to-date, Q1 GDP year-on-year, Q1 GDP total, Q1 GDP year-to-date, March total electricity consumption year-on-year, March urban fixed asset investment year-to-date, UK March core CPI year-on-year, UK March retail price index year-on-year, UK March unadjusted input PPI year-on-year, Eurozone March core harmonized CPI year-on-year unadjusted final, US March core retail sales month-on-month, US March retail sales year-on-year, US March industrial production month-on-month, US March manufacturing output month-on-month, US March industrial production year-on-year seasonally adjusted, and Canada's April 17 overnight lending rate. Additionally, the National Bureau of Statistics will release the monthly report on residential sales prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities, and the State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on the national economic performance. The WTO will release the 2025 Global Trade Outlook report. Fed Governor Lisa Cook will speak, ECB President Christine Lagarde and European Council President Costa will hold an informal dinner and exchange views, 2026 FOMC voter and Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester will participate in a Q&A session, ECB President Christine Lagarde and European Council President Costa will hold an informal dinner and exchange views, the Bank of Canada will announce its interest rate decision and monetary policy report, and Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem will hold a monetary policy press conference. In the crude oil sector, US oil closed at $61.53/barrel overnight, while Brent oil fell by 0.05%. Investors digested the latest news on the US's fluctuating tariff policies and tried to clarify to what extent trade disputes would reduce global economic growth and oil demand. The uncertainty of US trade policy has brought uncertainty to the global oil market, prompting OPEC to lower its demand forecast on Monday. The IEA predicted on Tuesday that global oil demand in 2025 is expected to grow at the slowest pace in five years due to concerns about the impact of US trade tariffs on economic growth. Tariff uncertainty has led several banks, including UBS, BNP Paribas, and HSBC, to lower their forecasts for crude oil prices. UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said, "If the trade dispute escalates further, our downside risk scenario—a deepening US recession and a hard landing for the Chinese economy—could push Brent crude prices to $40-60/barrel in the coming months." Concerns about Trump's tariffs, along with increased supply from the OPEC+ group, including Russia, have led to a drop in oil prices of about 13% so far this month. Data released by the American Petroleum Institute (API) on Tuesday showed that US crude oil inventories rose last week, while gasoline and distillate inventories fell. Data showed that in the week ending April 11, US crude oil inventories increased by 2.4 million barrels. Gasoline inventories decreased by 3 million barrels, and distillate inventories decreased by 3.2 million barrels. Analysts surveyed earlier had expected US crude oil inventories to increase by 500,000 barrels last week, gasoline inventories to decrease by 1.6 million barrels, and distillate inventories to decrease by 1.2 million barrels. The US Energy Information Administration will release its weekly crude oil inventory report at 22:30 on Wednesday. (Wenhua Comprehensive)