[SMM Tin Midday Commentary: The Geopolitical Situation Lacks Clear Guidance, and Repeated Swings in Macro Sentiment Put Futures Under Pressure Again]

Iran’s threat to drive oil prices up to $200 a barrel may sound like hyperbole, but as the energy crisis persisted, that outcome already looked more likely than US President Trump’s prediction that oil prices would soon pull back to pre-war levels… The conflict involving Israel and the US against Iran entered its third week — and escalated into one spanning the entire Middle East — yet the global oil benchmark’s response so far was surprisingly “mediocre.” Brent crude oil was currently trading near $100 a barrel, up about 65 from the start of the year. Although that level would have been unimaginable just a few weeks ago, it still remained below last Monday’s brief peak of nearly $120. Given that since the conflict began, the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz had trapped about one-fifth of global oil supply — roughly 20 million barrels a day — crude oil prices should, in theory, have been much higher. That seemed to suggest investors still retained a degree of trust in Trump , betting that the crisis would be resolved quickly and that the Strait of Hormuz would soon reopen — whether it was called the “Trump put,” the “TACO trade,” or “buy Trump,” many oil traders appeared to be wagering that the president would ultimately be able to limit the market damage. “When this is over, oil prices will come down very, very quickly,” Trump said on Monday this week. Yet that optimism looked increasingly difficult to reconcile with realities on the ground — whether on a battlefield where the conflict was intensifying, or in the physical oil market, where supply bottlenecks were steadily spreading. Signals Being Overlooked In fact, the physical crude oil market was sending an increasing number of stress signals, even though the international benchmark “paper oil” market had so far largely ignored them. Although trade had stalled under the impact of the Iran conflict, Middle Eastern crude benchmarks still surged to record highs, making them the most expensive crude in the world. The spike in these benchmark indicators, which are used to price millions of barrels of Middle Eastern crude sold to Asia, was raising costs for Asian refiners and forcing them to seek alternatives or make further production cuts in the coming months. S&P Global Platts said Dubai spot crude assessments for May-loading cargoes hit a record $157.66 a barrel on Tuesday, surpassing the previous all-time high of $147.5 set by Brent crude oil futures in 2008. That left Dubai crude’s premium to swaps at $60.82 a barrel, compared with an average premium of just 90¢ in February. Meanwhile, Oman crude oil futures hit a record high of $152.58 per barrel on Tuesday, with its premium to the Dubai swap set at $55.74 per barrel, versus an average premium of just 75¢ in February. Oman crude oil is exported from a terminal outside the Strait of Hormuz. This surge reflected massive uncertainty over actually available supply in the Middle East after Iran repeatedly attacked Oman's oil terminal and the UAE's major oil export terminal of Fujairah outside the Strait of Hormuz. Are Brent and WTI Failing to Reflect the "True Severity" of the Oil Market? As JPMorgan's head of commodities, Natasha Kaneva, pointed out in her latest research note on Tuesday , there was a clear mismatch between international benchmark crude pricing and the Middle Eastern geography of the supply disruptions. The core issue was that Brent and WTI are benchmark indicators at opposite ends of the Atlantic basin, while the current shock is concentrated in the Middle East. As a result, these benchmark crude prices were particularly influenced by relatively loose regional fundamentals—commercial oil inventory in both the US and Europe were ample in early 2026, and supply across the Atlantic basin was also relatively abundant in the short term. In addition, expectations for a release from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR)—as well as a partial release that will soon materialize—further eased prompt tightness in Brent- and WTI-linked markets. By contrast, Middle Eastern crude benchmarks such as Dubai and Oman more accurately reflected the current dislocation in the physical market. Dubai and Oman spot prices were both trading above $150 per barrel, underscoring the severity of crude oil shortages originating in the Gulf region. These Middle Eastern oil prices were directly affected by export disruptions and therefore more effectively reflected marginal supply deficits than Atlantic-linked crude prices. Crucially, trade geography intensified this dynamic. Most of the crude transported via the Strait of Hormuz goes to Asia—before the outbreak of the Middle East conflict, about 11.2 million barrels of crude and 1.4 million barrels of refined products flowed through the strait to Asia each day. As a result, the direct physical shortage—and the surge in oil prices—was concentrated in Asian markets most dependent on Gulf crude. In fact, early signs of demand destruction had already emerged in Asia as product prices surged and spot crude became prohibitively expensive. JPMorgan noted that timing effects further reinforced this divergence. A typical voyage from Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries to Asia takes about 10 to 15 days, while cargoes bound for Europe via the Suez Canal require nearly 25 to 30 days, or 35 to 45 days if rerouted around the Cape of Good Hope. Therefore, the impact of disrupted Gulf flows would hit Asian markets sooner and more severely, while Atlantic Basin benchmarks such as Brent and WTI would enjoy a longer buffer because of surplus inventory and slower supply adjustments. The US, with crude oil production exceeding 13 million barrels per day, would be affected the least. JPMorgan believed that, in this context, the apparent price stability shown by Brent and WTI should not be taken as evidence of adequate global supply. It reflected a temporary buffer created by regional surplus inventory, benchmark composition, and policy intervention. In fact, for refiners, especially those in Asia, the current crude oil shortage had already become a serious problem. About 60% of the region’s crude oil imports depended on the Middle East, and the difficulty of finding alternative, timely supplies was rapidly becoming acute. The pressure had already forced many countries into painful adjustments. Refiners across Asia had begun cutting run rates to conserve dwindling inventory. Some countries had banned exports of refined products, a defensive move that could further tighten the global market. As the crude oil shortage worsened, refined product prices surged. Asian jet fuel prices were approaching $200 a barrel, near the record high of about $220 reached earlier this month. The Crisis Could Spread Further Ultimately, this crisis was expected to extend beyond Asia. Data from analytics firm Kpler showed that Europe accounted for about three-quarters of Middle Eastern jet fuel exports shipped through the Strait of Hormuz last year—about 379,000 barrels per day—but since the conflict began, no such cargoes had passed through the strait. Unsurprisingly, jet fuel barge prices in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp refining hub had surged to a record $190 a barrel, exceeding the previous peak set after the Russia-Ukraine conflict in February 2022. The comparison with the Russia-Ukraine crisis may be even more compelling. Before the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, Russia supplied about 30% of Europe’s crude oil imports and one-third of its refined product imports. As traders feared Europe would lose supplies from one of the world’s largest oil producers, Brent crude rose to $130 a barrel after the Russia-Ukraine conflict—even though that worst-case scenario never fully materialized in the end. By contrast, according to Morgan Stanley, the physical disruption caused by the Iran conflict had already exceeded that level of concern by more than threefold. Even if the Strait of Hormuz were to reopen immediately, it would not bring immediate relief. According to the International Energy Agency, about 10 million barrels per day of production in the Middle East has been shut in since the conflict began. Restoring these flows will take weeks, if not months. To be sure, the oil market entered the Iran conflict in a relatively loose state, and the International Energy Agency had projected that global supply would exceed demand by about 3.7 million barrels per day. But that surplus has now been erased by the current turmoil. Last week, the International Energy Agency announced plans to release a record 400 million barrels from member countries' strategic petroleum reserves, which will help cushion the initial shock. But drawing down inventories cannot substitute for deliveries of new oil. In other words, the supply shock to the oil market is real and may persist. Once the Strait of Hormuz finally reopens, oil prices could initially plunge in a relief rebound, but given the harsh realities of the physical market, traders may need to think twice before betting that the return to normalcy promised by Trump is about to arrive…

SMM7月14日讯： 金属市场方面: 截至午间收盘，内盘基本金属近全线下行，沪铝跌1.76%，沪铜跌0.15%，沪镍跌0.18%。沪铅跌0.29%、沪锌跌0.89%，沪锡涨0.37%。 此外，铸造铝主连期货跌1.35%，氧化铝主连跌1.14%。碳酸锂涨3.43%，工业硅跌0.12%。多晶硅跌0.82%。 黑色系多飘绿，铁矿微涨，螺纹、热卷分别跌0.22%、0.18%。不锈钢跌0.43%。双焦方面：焦煤跌0.16%，焦炭涨0.66%。 外盘金属方面，截至11:40分，LME金属涨跌互现，伦铝跌0.94%。伦镍涨0.18%。伦锌跌0.07%。伦锡涨0.36%。伦铅跌0.3%。伦铜涨0.33%。 贵金属方面，截至11:40分，COMEX黄金涨0.23%，COMEX白银涨0.58%；国内方面，沪金涨0.66%；沪银涨2.01%，盘中刷新历史新高至9267元/千克。全球最大黄金上市交易基金(ETF)--SPDR Gold Trust公布，截至周五(7月11日)，其黄金持仓量为947.64吨，减少1.16吨，或0.12%。前一交易日为948.8吨。美国商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）周五公布的报告显示，截至7月8日当周，黄金投机客减持COMEX黄金期货和期权净多头头寸1,855手，至134,842手。 截至午间收盘，欧线集运主力合约跌0.33%，报2010点。 截至7月14日11:40分，部分期货午间行情: 》7月14日SMM金属现货价格 现货及基本面 铜： 截至7月14日周一，SMM全国主流地区铜库存环比上周四增加0.39万吨至14.76万吨；相比上周四库存的变化，各地区库存除了上海地区外其他地区普遍增加...... 》点击查看详情 宏观面 国内方面: 【海关总署：上半年我国货物贸易进出口同比增长2.9% “新三样”产品增长12.7%】 国务院新闻办公室今日上午10时举行新闻发布会，请海关总署副署长王令浚等介绍2025年上半年进出口情况，并答记者问。Wang Lingjun introduced: Since the beginning of this year, under the strong leadership of the CPC Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping at its core, China has adhered to the general principle of pursuing progress while ensuring stability, remained steadfast in managing its own affairs, unswervingly expanded high-standard opening up, and focused on stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations while effectively responding to external shocks. The national economy has maintained overall stability with progress, and China's foreign trade has withstood pressures, sustained momentum, and demonstrated vitality amid complex environments. According to customs statistics, in the first half of this year, China's import and export of goods totaled 21.79 trillion yuan, up 2.9% YoY. Among these, exports reached 13 trillion yuan, increasing by 7.2%, while imports stood at 8.79 trillion yuan, down 2.7%. Specific features are highlighted in five aspects: 1) Steady growth in foreign trade scale. In H1, China's import and export scale exceeded 20 trillion yuan, reaching a record high for the same period. From a quarterly perspective, Q2 imports and exports grew 4.5% YoY, accelerating by 3.2 percentage points compared to Q1, marking seven consecutive quarters of YoY growth. 2) Diversification of foreign trade partners. 3) Optimized and upgraded export momentum. In H1, China's machinery and equipment exports reached 7.8 trillion yuan, up 9.5%, accounting for 60% of total exports—a 1.2 percentage point increase compared to the same period last year. High-end equipment closely related to new quality productive forces grew by over 20%, while "new three" products representing green and low-carbon sectors increased by 12.7%. 4) Expanding domestic demand stabilized imports. With policies like "implementing major national strategies" and "large-scale equipment upgrades" taking effect, imports turned positive in Q2. In H1, China's imports of machinery equipment for petrochemical and textile sectors achieved double-digit growth, key parts like electronic components grew rapidly, and imports of crude oil, metal ores, and other critical raw materials increased. 5) Vitality of foreign trade entities continued to release. 》Click for details [PBOC injects 119.7 billion yuan net liquidity today] The People's Bank of China conducted 226.2 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repo operations today at an unchanged interest rate of 1.40%. With 106.5 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repos maturing, the net injection reached 119.7 billion yuan. ► On July 14, the central parity rate of the yuan in the interbank foreign exchange market was 7.1491 yuan per US dollar. US dollar update: As of 11:40, the US dollar index rose 0.09% to 97.96. US President Trump announced in a letter to the European Commission that a 30% tariff will be imposed on all European goods starting August 1. Several EU analysts have stated that announcing tariff hikes is a negotiating tactic employed by Trump. The market is currently awaiting the US inflation data for June, which will be released on Tuesday, to gain more clues about the US Fed's path for interest rate hikes. According to media reports on Friday, Austan Goolsbee, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, said that Trump's new tariffs could spark fresh concerns about inflation, which might force the US Fed to remain on the sidelines. In other currencies: The euro fell to a three-week low on Monday, and the Mexican peso also came under pressure after US President Trump threatened to impose a 30% tariff on imports from the US's two largest trading partners starting August 1. Trump sent letters to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador on Saturday, announcing the new tariffs. In response, the EU and Mexico called the tariffs unfair and disruptive. The EU said it would suspend retaliatory measures against US tariffs until early August while continuing to urge a negotiated solution. During the Asian morning session, the foreign exchange market's reaction to Trump's latest tariff threats was largely mediocre, with only the euro falling to a roughly three-week low. The market has become increasingly insensitive to Trump's series of tariff threats. His recent stirring up of global trade turmoil has hardly been able to stop the US stock market from repeatedly hitting new highs, and has only slightly boosted the US dollar. Taylor Nugent, a senior economist at National Australia Bank, said it was difficult to attribute the market's mediocre reaction in the past week to either increased resilience or self-delusion. However, negotiations are still ongoing, and the recent key substantive progress was that the July 9 deadline for reciprocal tariffs had arrived without any tariff rate increases, making it difficult for the market to price in a series of major news items that were said to determine the tariff levels on August 1. Data: Today, data such as China's M2 money supply annual growth rate for June (time uncertain from July 14 to 17), China's total social financing for the year to date in June (time uncertain from July 14 to 17), and China's new yuan-denominated loans for the year to date in June (time uncertain from July 14 to 17) will be released. In addition, it is worth noting that the State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on financial statistics for the first half of 2025; the National Energy Administration will release data on total electricity consumption around the 15th of each month; and US President Trump plans to make a "major announcement" on Russia. Crude oil: Both crude oil futures rose slightly. As of 11:40, US crude oil was up 0.13%, and Brent crude oil was up 0.16%. Concerns that further US sanctions on Russia could affect global supply have supported oil prices, but increased production by Saudi Arabia and ongoing tariff uncertainties have limited the gains in oil prices. 国际能源署(IEA)称，沙特6月石油日产量超出目标43万桶，达到980万桶/日，而根据OPEC 配额该国的产量目标应为937万桶/日。沙特能源部周五表示，沙特完全遵守了OPEC 的自愿产量目标，并补充称，沙特6月的市场原油供应量为935.2万桶/日，符合配额要求。 美国能源服务公司贝克休斯(Baker Hughes)周五在其备受关注的报告中表示，美国能源公司本周连续第11周削减石油和天然气钻机数量，为2020年7月以来首次。数据显示，截至7月11日当周，未来产量的先行指标--美国石油和天然气钻机总数减少2座至537座，为2021年10月以来最低水平。（文华综合） 现货市场一览: ► 周末全国主流地区铜库存增加0.39万吨【SMM周度数据】 ► 铜价回落且月差收窄，下游采购积极性上升【SMM华南铜现货】 ► 交割日临近 市场氛围表现安静【SMM华北铜现货】 ► 上海锌：现货成交一般 升水继续走低【SMM午评】 ► 宁波锌：下游订单走弱 成交表现平淡【SMM午评】 ► 【SMM铁矿石航运】全球铁矿石发运量和到港量同步小幅下滑6% ► 【SMM钢材航运】上周中国出口钢材总量环比上升28% ► 【SMM煤焦航运】上周焦煤到港213.36万吨 环比+40.05万吨 ► 需求减弱但下游囤货意愿增强 光伏玻璃7月冷修产能再增【SMM分析】 其他金属现货午评稍后更新，敬请刷新查看~

SMM News on June 18: Metal Market: As of the daytime close, domestic market base metals generally rose, with SHFE aluminum leading the gains with a 1.35% increase. SHFE zinc rose by 0.85%, while SHFE lead fell by 0.68% and SHFE nickel by 0.42%. The remaining metals experienced minor fluctuations in their gains. The main alumina contract rose by 2.31%, recording two consecutive days of gains. The main casting aluminum contract rose by 0.95%. In addition, lithium carbonate rose by 0.1%, polysilicon fell by 2%, and silicon metal rose by 1.09%. The main European container shipping contract rose by 3.18%. In the ferrous metals series, iron ore fell by 0.5%, HRC rose by 0.32%. In the coking coal and coke sector, coking coal fell by 0.57%, while coke rose by 0.62%. In the overseas market, as of 15:02, overseas market base metals generally rose, with LME tin leading the gains with a 0.94% increase. LME zinc rose by 0.63%, and LME copper by 0.48%. The remaining metals experienced minor fluctuations in their gains. In precious metals, as of 15:02, COMEX gold fell by 0.13%, while COMEX silver rose by 0.39%, reaching a high of $37.405 per ounce during the session, a new high since March 2012. Domestically, SHFE gold fell by 0.21%, while SHFE silver rose by 2.35%. Notably, SHFE silver surged to a high of 9,075 yuan/kg during the session, a new all-time high since its listing. Market conditions as of 15:02 today 》Click to view SMM Market Dashboard Macro Front Domestic: [US exhibitors at the 3rd China International Supply Chain Expo increase by 15% compared to the previous edition] According to CCTV News, at the 2025 Lujiazui Forum, Pan Gongsheng, Governor of the People's Bank of China, announced eight major financial policies. The first is to establish a trade repository for the interbank market. This will involve high-frequency aggregation and systematic analysis of transaction data from various financial sub-markets, including interbank bonds, currencies, derivatives, gold, and bills, to serve financial institutions, macroeconomic regulation, and financial market supervision. The second is to establish an international operation center for the digital yuan. This will promote the international operation of the digital yuan and the development of financial market businesses, serving digital financial innovation. The third is to establish personal credit reporting agencies. These will provide diversified and differentiated personal credit reporting products for financial institutions, further improving the social credit reporting system. 》Click to view details [Li Yunze: Will jointly release an action plan with the Shanghai Municipal Government to support the construction of Shanghai as an international financial center] Today, at the 2025 Lujiazui Forum, Li Yunze, Director of the National Financial Regulatory Administration, stated that in recent years, the construction of Shanghai as an international financial center has achieved a series of new progress and breakthroughs. During the forum, the National Financial Regulatory Administration and the Shanghai Municipal Government will jointly release an action plan to support the construction of Shanghai as an international financial center, introducing a series of deployment measures. These include encouraging Shanghai to carry out innovative pilots in the fields of technology finance and cross-border finance, supporting eligible national banks to establish financial asset investment companies in Shanghai, and enhancing Shanghai's international reinsurance and shipping insurance underwriting capabilities and global service levels. (Cailian Press) [State Administration of Foreign Exchange to Implement a Package of Innovative Foreign Exchange Policies in Pilot Free Trade Zones] Zhu Hexin, Deputy Governor of the People's Bank of China and Director of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, stated at the 2025 Lujiazui Forum that the State Administration of Foreign Exchange will implement a package of innovative foreign exchange policies in pilot free trade zones. These include 10 facilitation policies, such as optimizing settlement for new-type international trade and expanding the Qualified Foreign Limited Partner (QFLP) pilot program, actively supporting the strategy to enhance the pilot free trade zones. [National Mine Safety Administration: Public Consultation on the "Key R&D Catalog for Intelligent Mine Robots"] To thoroughly implement the "Guiding Opinions on Deeply Promoting Intelligent Mine Construction and Facilitating Mine Safety Development" issued by the National Mine Safety Administration and seven other departments, and to accelerate the construction of intelligent mines and the R&D and application of robots, the General Office of the National Mine Safety Administration, in collaboration with relevant departments, has drafted the "Key R&D Catalog for Intelligent Mine Robots (Draft for Public Consultation)", which is now open for public comments. ► On June 18, the central parity rate of the RMB in the interbank foreign exchange market was set at 7.1761 RMB per US dollar. US dollar: As of 15:02, the US dollar index fell by 0.25% to 98.57. The market generally expects the US Fed to remain on hold this time, but expectations for Fed easing in H2 have risen. Attention should be paid to the Fed's policy stance and forecasts for future economic trends early tomorrow morning. The market expects the Fed to maintain the benchmark interest rate within the range of 4.25%-4.50%. However, IG market analyst Tony Sycamore stated that risks from the Middle East conflict and the slowdown in global economic growth may prompt the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in July, earlier than the current market expectation of September. US retail sales in May recorded the largest decline since the beginning of the year, indicating that new tariffs have curbed consumer spending, particularly in the automotive sector. Data released by the US Department of Commerce on Tuesday showed that retail sales, unadjusted for inflation, fell by 0.9% MoM in May, following a revised decline of 0.1% in April. Retail sales excluding automobiles fell by 0.3%. Macro: Today, data such as the UK's May CPI YoY, UK's May core CPI YoY, UK's May retail price index YoY, Eurozone's May harmonized CPI YoY - unadjusted final value, Eurozone's May core harmonized CPI YoY - unadjusted final value, US's May preliminary monthly rate of building permits, US's May preliminary annualized total of building permits, US initial jobless claims for the week ending June 14, US continuing jobless claims for the week ending June 7, US May housing starts annualized monthly rate, and US May housing starts annualized total will be released. In addition, it is worth noting that the Bank of Canada will release the minutes of its monetary policy meeting; Bank of Canada Governor Macklem will deliver a speech on Canada's economic outlook, inflation trends, and interest rates; and the 2025 Lujiazui Forum will be held in Shanghai. Crude Oil: As of 15:02, both WTI and Brent crude oil prices fell by 0.2%. The Israel-Iran conflict has introduced new uncertainties into the global oil market. Additionally, analysts have stated that the market is primarily concerned about potential supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, through which one-fifth of the world's seaborne oil passes. From the inventory perspective, according to the report released by the American Petroleum Institute (API) in the early morning, US crude oil inventories fell sharply by 10.133 million barrels in the week ending June 13. This decline not only far exceeded market expectations but also marked the largest weekly drop since the week ending August 25, 2023. Meanwhile, gasoline inventories decreased slightly by 202,000 barrels, while distillate fuel oil inventories increased by 318,000 barrels. Before the API data was released, analysts generally expected crude oil inventories to decline by about 1.8 million barrels, gasoline inventories to increase by about 600,000 barrels, and distillate fuel oil inventories to increase by about 400,000 barrels during the week. The API report reflects that with the arrival of the traditional peak summer oil consumption season, market demand for petroleum products is rebounding, and the significant decline in crude oil inventories suggests that the current destocking trend may continue for some time. Influenced by these positive factors, the price increases of domestic and overseas crude oil futures have expanded significantly. The International Energy Agency (IEA) released its monthly report for June, slightly lowering its demand forecast and significantly raising its supply growth projection. The IEA believes that the ongoing Israel-Iran conflict in the Middle East poses risks to the market but has not yet affected supply. If geopolitical risks do not spiral out of control, the surplus pressure will further increase. Specific data shows that the IEA has revised down its average oil demand growth forecast for 2025 to 720,000 barrels per day, from a previous estimate of 740,000 barrels per day, and for 2026 to 740,000 barrels per day, from a previous estimate of 760,000 barrels per day. From the inventory perspective, according to the report released by the American Petroleum Institute (API) in the early morning, US crude oil inventories fell sharply by 10.133 million barrels in the week ending June 13. This decline not only far exceeded market expectations but also marked the largest weekly drop since the week ending August 25, 2023. Meanwhile, gasoline inventories decreased slightly by 202,000 barrels, while distillate fuel oil inventories increased by 318,000 barrels. Before the API data was released, analysts generally expected crude oil inventories to decline by about 1.8 million barrels, gasoline inventories to increase by about 600,000 barrels, and distillate fuel oil inventories to increase by about 400,000 barrels during the week. The API report reflects that as the traditional peak oil consumption season in summer approaches, market demand for petroleum products is rebounding. The significant decline in crude oil inventory suggests that the current trend of destocking may continue for some time. Influenced by these positive factors, the increase in crude oil futures prices in both domestic and overseas markets has expanded significantly. The International Energy Agency (IEA) released its monthly report for June, in which it slightly lowered its demand forecast and significantly raised its supply growth estimate. The IEA believes that the ongoing Israel-Iran conflict in the Middle East poses risks to the market, but has not yet affected supply. If geopolitical risks do not spiral out of control, the surplus pressure will further intensify. Specific data shows that the IEA has revised down its average oil demand growth forecast for 2025 to 720,000 barrels per day, from a previous estimate of 740,000 barrels per day, and revised down its average oil demand growth forecast for 2026 to 740,000 barrels per day, from a previous estimate of 760,000 barrels per day. (Wenhua Comprehensive) SMM Daily Review ► Aluminum prices approach the 21,000 resistance level, with aluminum scrap prices showing limited increases [Daily Review of Aluminum Scrap] ► June 18: SHFE aluminum surged unilaterally, destocking significantly hindered, and processing fees collapsed [Daily Review of Spot Aluminum Billet] ► [SMM Daily Review of Nickel Sulphate] June 18: Nickel salt prices maintained a downward trend ► Market fluctuations are relatively small, with spot prices temporarily stable [SMM Daily Review of EMM] ► [SMM Daily Review of MHP] June 18: Indonesian MHP prices slightly declined ► Traders lower quotes, rare earth prices slightly weaken [SMM Daily Review of Rare Earths] ► Silver prices surge significantly, attempting to break through previous highs, with spot-futures price spread widening and contango rising [SMM Daily Review]

SMM News on June 18: Metal Market: As of the midday close, most domestic base metals rose, with SHFE nickel down 0.5%. SHFE copper rose 0.15%, SHFE aluminum rose 1.42%. SHFE zinc rose 0.87%, SHFE tin rose 0.13%. SHFE lead fell 0.71%. In addition, the main continuous futures contract for foundry aluminum rose 0.79%, and the main continuous contract for alumina rose 1.4%. Lithium carbonate rose 0.17%, silicon metal rose 0.95%, and polysilicon fell 0.47%. The ferrous metals series generally rose, with iron ore down 0.72%, rebar up 0.13%, and HRC up 0.36. Stainless steel rose 0.04%. In the coking coal and coke sector: coking coal fell 0.44%, and coke rose 0.59%. In the overseas metal market, as of 11:50 a.m., LME metals all rose, with LME copper, LME lead, LME aluminum, and LME nickel all up less than 0.4%. LME zinc rose 0.63%, and LME tin rose 0.73%. In the precious metals market, as of 11:50 a.m., COMEX gold was flat at $3,407/oz, and COMEX silver rose 0.47%. Domestically, SHFE gold fell 0.17%, and SHFE silver rose 2.37%, hitting a record high of 9,047 yuan/kg during the session. As of the midday close, the most-traded contract for the European container shipping index rose 4.49% to 2,118.6. As of 11:50 a.m. on June 18, midday futures market movements for some contracts: 》SMM Metal Spot Prices on June 18 Spot and Fundamentals Copper: Today, spot #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was quoted at a premium of 140-220 yuan/mt against the front-month contract, with an average premium of 180 yuan/mt, down 40 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. SX-EW copper was quoted at a premium of 80-100 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 90 yuan/mt, down 30 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was 78,840 yuan/mt, up 145 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average price of SX-EW copper was 78,750 yuan/mt, up 155 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot Market: Inventories in Guangdong have fallen for two consecutive days, mainly due to fewer arrivals. Although inventories have decreased, warrants are flowing out, increasing the available supply. As a result, suppliers have had to lower prices to sell... 》Click for details Macro Front Domestic: [US exhibitors at the third China International Supply Chain Expo increase by 15% compared to the previous edition] According to CCTV News, at the 2025 Lujiazui Forum, Pan Gongsheng, Governor of the People's Bank of China, announced eight major financial policies. The first is to establish a trade repository for the interbank market. This will involve the high-frequency aggregation and systematic analysis of transaction data from various financial sub-markets, including interbank bonds, currencies, derivatives, gold, and bills, to serve financial institutions, macroeconomic regulation, and financial market supervision. Second, establish an international operation center for the digital yuan. Promote the international operation of the digital yuan and the development of financial market businesses to serve digital financial innovation. Third, establish personal credit reporting agencies. Provide diversified and differentiated personal credit reporting products for financial institutions to further improve the social credit reporting system. 》Click for details [Li Yunze: Will jointly release an action plan with the Shanghai Municipal Government to support the construction of Shanghai as an international financial center] At the 2025 Lujiazui Forum today, Li Yunze, Director of the National Financial Regulatory Administration, stated that in recent years, Shanghai has achieved a series of new progress and breakthroughs in the construction of an international financial center. During the forum, the National Financial Regulatory Administration will jointly release an action plan with the Shanghai Municipal Government to support the construction of Shanghai as an international financial center, introducing a series of deployment measures, including encouraging Shanghai to carry out innovative pilots in the fields of technology finance and cross-border finance, supporting eligible national banks to establish financial asset investment companies in Shanghai, and enhancing Shanghai's international reinsurance and shipping insurance underwriting capabilities and global service levels, among others. (Caixin) [SAFE to Implement a Package of Foreign Exchange Innovation Policies in Pilot Free Trade Zones] Zhu Hexin, Deputy Governor of the People's Bank of China and Director of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, stated at the 2025 Lujiazui Forum that the State Administration of Foreign Exchange will implement a package of foreign exchange innovation policies in pilot free trade zones. These include 10 facilitation policies, such as optimizing settlement for new-type international trade and expanding the Qualified Foreign Limited Partner (QFLP) pilot program, actively supporting the enhancement strategy of pilot free trade zones. [National Mine Safety Administration: Public Consultation on the "Key R&D Catalog for Mine Intelligent Robots"] To thoroughly implement the "Guiding Opinions on Deeply Promoting the Intelligent Construction of Mines and Promoting Mine Safety Development" jointly issued by seven departments including the National Mine Safety Administration, and to accelerate the intelligent construction of mines and the R&D and application of robots, the General Office of the National Mine Safety Administration, in conjunction with relevant departments, has organized the drafting of the "Key R&D Catalog for Mine Intelligent Robots (Draft for Public Consultation)", which is now open for public consultation. The People's Bank of China conducted 156.3 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations today, with an operating interest rate of 1.40%, unchanged from the previous rate. As 164 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos matured today, a net withdrawal of 7.7 billion yuan was realized. ► The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar in the interbank foreign exchange market on June 18 was 7.1761 yuan per US dollar. US dollar aspect: As of 11:50, the US dollar index fell by 0.14% to 98.68. Fed officials held a meeting on Tuesday, and the latest economic data may heighten their concerns that government policies (or at least the high degree of uncertainty surrounding these policies) will slow economic growth in the coming months. US retail sales fell more than expected in May, dragged down by a decline in car purchases, as the surge in advance buying by US consumers to avoid tariff-induced price increases has subsided. However, consumer spending is currently still supported by robust wage growth. The market generally expects the US Fed to keep its benchmark interest rate range unchanged at 4.25%-4.50%. The market will closely monitor the remarks of Fed Chairman Powell after the policy decision is announced, seeking signals for the future path of monetary policy. In other currency news: The Bank of Japan (BOJ) released its latest monetary policy statement, maintaining the policy interest rate at 0.5% and slowing the pace of reducing its bond-buying program. The BOJ will cut its bond purchases by 200 billion yen per quarter starting from April 2026. The BOJ stated that the Japanese economy is recovering mildly, but there are still some signs of weakness. (Cailian Press) In terms of data: Today, data including the UK's May CPI year-on-year rate, UK's May core CPI year-on-year rate, UK's May retail price index year-on-year rate, Eurozone's May harmonized CPI year-on-year rate - final unadjusted figure, Eurozone's May core harmonized CPI year-on-year rate - final unadjusted figure, US's May initial monthly rate of building permits, US's May initial annualized total of building permits, US's initial jobless claims for the week ending June 14, US's continuing jobless claims for the week ending June 7, US's May seasonally adjusted annualized monthly rate of housing starts, and US's May seasonally adjusted annualized total of housing starts will be released. In addition, it is worth noting that the Bank of Canada will release the minutes of its monetary policy meeting; Bank of Canada Governor Macklem will deliver a speech on Canada's economic outlook, inflation trends, and interest rates; and the 2025 Lujiazui Forum will be held in Shanghai. In terms of crude oil: Both WTI and Brent crude oil futures rose, with WTI up 0.31% and Brent up 0.35% as of 11:50. This is due to market concerns that the conflict between Iran and Israel may disrupt oil supplies, supporting oil prices. Analysts said the market is mainly concerned about supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, through which one-fifth of the world's seaborne oil passes. According to the CCTV News app, on the 17th local time, the US consumer news and business channel CNBC reported that the Baltic and International Maritime Council (BIMCO), one of the world's largest shipping associations, said that the large-scale conflict between Israel and Iran has made the entire shipping industry uneasy, with many ships already choosing to avoid the Strait of Hormuz, and the number of ships passing through the Strait is declining. Amid the escalating deterioration of regional security, ocean freight rates through the Strait of Hormuz are expected to rise. Iran is the third-largest oil producer among the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), with a daily output of approximately 3.3 million barrels. However, analysts suggest that other OPEC members could utilize their spare capacity to offset the decline in Iran's production. Data released by the American Petroleum Institute (API) indicate a decrease in US crude oil and gasoline inventories, along with an increase in distillate fuel oil inventories, for the week ending June 13. Crude oil inventories fell by 10.1 million barrels, gasoline inventories decreased by 202,000 barrels, and distillate fuel oil inventories rose by 318,000 barrels. (Webstock Inc.) Spot Market Overview: ► A significant outflow of warrants has increased market supply, leading to a notable decline in spot premiums. [SMM South China Spot Copper] ► Trading activity in the spot market remains low, with premiums and discounts weakening. [SMM North China Spot Copper] ► Shanghai Zinc: Premiums continue to deteriorate, with average trading performance. [SMM Midday Review] ► [SMM Nickel Midday Review] On June 18, nickel spot prices remained stable, with People's Bank of China Governor Pan Gongsheng announcing eight significant financial policies. Midday reviews for other metal spot markets will be updated shortly. Please refresh for the latest information.

Since Israel launched attacks on Iran late last week, both WTI crude oil, the US benchmark, and Brent crude oil, the global benchmark, have experienced significant volatility. One indicator might help illustrate just how serious investors' concerns are about the potential scope of this conflict... Rebecca Babin, Senior Energy Trader and Managing Director at CIBC Private Wealth, said that the CBOE Crude Oil ETF Volatility Index hit its highest closing level in over three years on Tuesday, indicating that "the market is pricing in multiple tail risks." "This is a clear signal that traders are increasingly concerned about how the situation might evolve—not just short-term supply disruptions, but broader regional instability," Babin noted. According to Dow Jones Market Data, the index surged by 26% on Tuesday, closing at $71.56, its highest closing level since March 2022. Described as an estimate of the 30-day expected volatility of crude oil priced by the United States Oil Fund (USO), the index has "doubled" in the past five trading days, rising by 104%. It's worth noting that the index has also surged after key geopolitical events in the past, but none have been as dramatic as this one. For example, after Hamas attacked Israel on October 7, 2023, the index rose by 11.7% the following Monday, closing at $39.85, its highest closing level since June of that year. On the day after Trump's April 2 "Liberation Day" tariff announcement, the index rose by 18%, closing at $35.45. Fawad Razaqzada, Market Analyst at GAIN Capital, said that the situation between Israel and Iran this time is "quite different." "US President Trump stated in a social media post that 'we now have complete control of Iranian airspace,' indicating that the US is engaging in the conflict," he said. According to multiple media reports, US President Trump is considering a range of options, including joining Israel in air strikes against Iran. He also posted on social media on Tuesday demanding Iran's "unconditional surrender." This has raised questions about whether the US might take action to deepen its involvement in the conflict. Market data shows that the price of the most-traded July WTI crude oil futures contract in the US rose by $3.07, or 4.3%, on Tuesday, closing at $74.84 per barrel, its highest closing level for the most-traded contract since January this year. The most-traded August Brent crude oil futures contract, the global benchmark, also rose by $3.22, or 4.4%, closing at $76.45 per barrel, its highest closing level since February. Matt Polyak, managing partner at Hummingbird Capital, said that a key factor driving market volatility is the potential impact on global supply from Iran's export of approximately 1.5 million barrels of oil per day. According to data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), around 20 million barrels of crude oil and condensate were transported through the Strait of Hormuz to global markets each day in 2024, accounting for roughly one-third of global oil trade. From the perspective of market positioning, Polyak of Hummingbird noted that CFTC data showed that the net managed money position in crude oil on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) was in line with the average over the past three years but below the five-year average, suggesting there is still room for long positions to increase. Meanwhile, Denton Cinquegrana, chief oil analyst at Oil Price Information Service, pointed out that the open interest in WTI contracts is in "free fall, so short positions are undoubtedly being covered." Short positions refer to bets on falling oil prices, and covering refers to investors buying back the oil they previously sold short. For example, FactSet data showed that the open interest in the most-traded July WTI crude oil futures contract was around 81,660 lots in Tuesday's trading, down from 144,493 lots on Friday. Regarding how high oil prices could rise from current levels, CIBC's Babin said that if the situation is limited to Iran-Israel tensions, "some of the gains may already be priced in by the market—especially since the spare capacity of Saudi Arabia and the UAE provides some cushion." However, she stated, "if there are signs that the situation is escalating into a full-blown regional conflict with direct strikes on infrastructure, then there is still significant upside risk for oil prices."

Macro News 1. On June 17 local time, during his attendance at the second China-Central Asia Summit in Astana, President Xi Jinping met with Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev. The two heads of state exchanged views on the current situation in the Middle East. Xi Jinping stated that Israel's military actions against Iran have suddenly intensified tensions in the Middle East, and China is deeply concerned about this. China opposes any actions that infringe upon the sovereignty, security, and territorial integrity of other countries. Military conflict is not the way to resolve issues, and the escalation of regional tensions does not serve the common interests of the international community. All parties should work to de-escalate the conflict as soon as possible and prevent further escalation of tensions. China is willing to work with all parties to play a constructive role in restoring peace and stability in the Middle East. 2. Li Bin, Deputy Director of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange and spokesperson, stated that in May, the overall supply and demand of foreign exchange at home and abroad were balanced, and the foreign exchange market operated smoothly. In May, the net inflow of cross-border funds from non-bank sectors, including enterprises and individuals, amounted to $33 billion. Among them, the net inflow of funds from trade in goods remained at a relatively high level, and foreign investors' holdings of domestic stocks increased further compared to the previous month. The net outflow of funds from services trade, dividend distributions by foreign-invested enterprises, and outward direct investment remained generally stable. 4. Yesterday, a reporter asked whether there were plans to evacuate Chinese citizens in Iran and Israel amid the escalating conflict between Israel and Iran. Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun stated that some Chinese citizens have already been safely evacuated to neighboring countries. The Foreign Ministry and relevant embassies and consulates are working with relevant departments to fully ensure the safety and protection of Chinese citizens in Iran and Israel and to organize the evacuation of Chinese citizens promptly. 6. At yesterday's regular press conference of the Foreign Ministry, a reporter asked about the Financial Times report that the EU had canceled the high-level China-EU economic dialogue, believing that discussions with China were meaningless without progress on trade issues. Guo Jiakun responded by saying to inquire with the competent Chinese authorities. Guo Jiakun stated that strengthening strategic communication and deepening dialogue and cooperation between China and the EU are beneficial to the world. Industry News 1. Zhang Guoqing, Member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Vice Premier of the State Council, conducted a survey on industrial innovation and the promotion of the healthy development of the platform economy in Guangdong from the 15th to the 17th. He emphasized the need to thoroughly implement the important instructions and directives of General Secretary Xi Jinping, implement the decisions and deployments of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, promote the deep integration of technological innovation and industrial innovation, continuously shape new momentum and advantages for development, adhere to the principle of equal emphasis on development and regulation, focus on improving the governance system of the platform economy, and create a fair and orderly environment for the development of the platform economy. 2. The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) of the State Council held the second thematic promotion meeting for the 2025 Action Plan for Deepening and Enhancing the Reform of State-owned Enterprises in Shenzhen, Guangdong Province, on the 17th. The meeting called for efforts to improve the quality of technological innovation supply, take on responsibilities in building a modern industrial system, make tangible progress in collaborative innovation and the application of research outcomes, and achieve breakthroughs in improving the innovation evaluation and incentive mechanisms. It also urged active promotion of AI-led transformations in the scientific research paradigms of state-owned enterprises, as well as the creation and opening up of strategic, high-value application scenarios. The meeting emphasized that completing the deepening and enhancement action plan with high quality should be the top priority for this year's state-owned enterprise reforms, with a focus on achieving tangible results. 3. The International Energy Agency's new medium-term outlook indicates that global oil supply growth will far exceed demand growth in the coming years. 4. The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) announced that starting today, domestic gasoline and diesel prices will be increased by 260 yuan/mt and 255 yuan/mt, respectively. In terms of price per liter, 92-octane gasoline will increase by 0.2 yuan, while 95-octane gasoline and 0-diesel will both increase by 0.22 yuan. After this price increase, filling up a 50L fuel tank of a family car with 92-octane gasoline will cost an additional 10 yuan. 5. According to a survey report titled "The New Silver Hair Economy Will Become Another 'Strategic Opportunity' for Upgrading Consumption Quality" released by the Shanghai Consumer Council, the new silver hair economy will become an important engine for upgrading consumption quality. The consumption demands of the new silver hair group are highly concentrated in areas such as "health and wellness," "travel and socializing," and "hobbies and interests." 6. The commencement ceremony for the EPCI project of the Shanghai Lingang Submarine Data Center Demonstration Project, participated in by the Second Company of CCCC Third Harbor Engineering Co., Ltd., was held in Nantong. As the world's first zero-carbon new infrastructure benchmark for offshore wind power-integrated submarine data centers, this project will help Shanghai reach the international forefront in the field of green and low-carbon computing infrastructure. 7. During an inspection of a shipment of children's toys and plastic cups, customs officers from Beilun Customs, under the jurisdiction of Ningbo Customs, discovered that a plush toy was suspected of infringing on the copyright of the "Labubu Spring Elf Series." After contacting the rights holder for confirmation, it was determined that the entire shipment was infringing. Upon inventory, it was found that there were 20,240 infringing children's toys. 8. Relevant officials from the Guangdong Provincial SASAC stated at the second thematic promotion meeting for the 2025 Action Plan for Deepening and Enhancing the Reform of State-owned Enterprises that Guangdong Province has increased its investment in strategic emerging industries and high-tech enterprises, establishing the Guangdong Advanced Manufacturing Industry Investment Fund and the Strategic Industry Promotion and Development Fund, with a total subscribed capital of approximately 70 billion yuan and 52 investment projects. Company News 1. New World Development stated on an interactive platform that its shopping malls have POP MART vending machines. 2. PetroChina Capital announced its plan to invest 655 million yuan to increase the capital of Kunlun Capital for investment in controllable nuclear fusion projects. 3. SmartSens Technology announced that the shareholding ratio of the National Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund Phase II has decreased to 6.99%. 4. BOE Technology Group Co., Ltd. announced its plan to acquire a 30% stake in CHOT. 5. RemeGen announced that Telitacicept has been granted orphan drug designation by the European Union. 6. Dematic announced its strategic cooperation intention with Zhiyuan Xinchuang to explore innovative applications of embodied intelligent robots in logistics scenarios. 7. GCoreLab announced the successful internal testing of its new anti-quantum cryptographic card, which has been sampled to multiple customers. 8. Yuanlong Yatu stated on the interactive platform that its revenue from IP-related businesses with POP MART in 2024 was approximately 2.21 million yuan. 9. Eastcompeace Technology announced that in recent years, the company has actively deployed R&D and applications in fields such as blockchain, but faces risks of new technology R&D and commercial applications not meeting expectations. 10. Asian Paints announced that Runhe Tongcai intends to passively reduce its shareholding in the company by 3% due to the triggering of a mandatory liquidation procedure. Global Markets 1. US stocks opened lower and closed lower, with all three major indices ending in the red. The Nasdaq fell 0.91%, the S&P 500 fell 0.84%, and the Dow fell 0.7%. Major tech stocks generally declined, with Tesla falling nearly 4% and Apple falling over 1%. Most popular Chinese ADRs closed lower, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index falling 1.77%. Major European stock indices also closed lower, with the German DAX30 index falling 0.86%. 2. International crude oil futures settlement prices rose sharply by over 4%. WTI crude oil futures for July rose 4.28%, and Brent crude oil futures for August rose 4.4%. 3. COMEX gold futures fell 0.37%, while COMEX silver futures rose 1.97%. Investment Opportunities Reference 1. China's annual cross-border e-commerce export scale exceeds 2 trillion yuan, with leading sellers expected to continue increasing market share According to media reports, at the 2025 China Langfang International Economic and Trade Fair, which opened on June 16, the Statistical Analysis Department of the General Administration of Customs introduced China's cross-border e-commerce import and export situation in 2024, stating that China's cross-border e-commerce export scale exceeded 2 trillion yuan in 2024, reaching 2.15 trillion yuan, a 16.9% increase from 2023, setting a new historical high for cross-border e-commerce scale. A survey of enterprises by the customs showed that over 70% of enterprises expected cross-border e-commerce import and export to remain stable or grow in 2025. Cinda Securities believes that the increasing penetration of online channels in overseas consumer markets will continue to be an important opportunity for Chinese brands to go global. Leading sellers in cross-border e-commerce are focusing on brand strategies and leveraging their core supply chain advantages, and are expected to continue increasing their market share. 2. Ten new low-altitude logistics routes have been added in the region, and 2025 is expected to be the first year for the commercial application of the low-altitude economy to take root. According to media reports, the Hanshang Low-Altitude Port, which connects the core areas of the three towns of Wuhan (Wuchang, Hankou, and Hanyang) through flight service routes, has officially commenced operations. It is understood that the Hanshang Low-Altitude Port is constructed and operated by Hanshang Low-Altitude Technology Co., Ltd., a subsidiary of Hanshang Group. Currently, it has formed a specialized low-altitude logistics operation system comprising one digital real-time dispatching platform, two intelligent command centers, ten low-altitude routes, and 22 intelligent parking aprons. It primarily serves the distribution and emergency support of commodities such as seafood, fresh-cut flowers, and pharmaceuticals. Galaxy Securities believes that 2025 is expected to be the first year for the commercial application of the low-altitude economy to take root, with infrastructure such as air traffic control systems and takeoff and landing sites accelerating in construction. Kaiyuan Securities further analyzed that the low-altitude economy has ushered in vertical implementation from the macro level (national-level industrial planning) to the meso level (local subsidies in various regions) and then to the micro level (infrastructure mainframe tenders and application scenario creation). It is recommended to pay attention to the subsequent market trends of the low-altitude economy sector. 3. The region's first project of this kind has officially landed! Policy dividends are emerging, injecting strong momentum into foreign trade growth. According to media reports, recently, the Macun Port Customs under Haikou Customs successfully handled the customs clearance procedures for a cross-border bonded lease of a "Lancang" electric multiple unit (EMU) trainset declared by a leasing company within the Haikou Integrated Free Trade Zone, marking the official landing of Hainan Free Trade Port's first cross-border railway EMU leasing project. Currently, the EMU trainset has been delivered to Laos-China Railway Co., Ltd., effectively enhancing the passenger transport supply capacity of the Lao section of the China-Laos Railway and driving regional economic development. "Unlike previous direct sales and exports, the bonded lease approach significantly reduces the investment and operating costs for foreign enterprises. It also helps promote international cooperation and optimal resource allocation, providing more foreign enterprises with access to China's manufacturing resources and market opportunities," said a relevant person in charge of the leasing company. This business represents an important milestone in the company's cross-border leasing business layout. A relevant person in charge of Haikou Customs stated that the customs will strengthen communication and exchanges with various parties, including the Haikou Integrated Free Trade Zone and leasing companies, to further leverage the policy advantages of the Hainan Free Trade Port. By facilitating financing and customs clearance, it will promote industrial development and accelerate the "going global" of large-scale rail transit equipment made in China. According to statistics from Haikou Customs, as of late May this year, the import value of goods under Hainan Free Trade Port's three "zero-tariff" lists reached 22.69 billion yuan, with tax exemptions and reductions totaling 4.32 billion yuan. The early policy dividends of the Hainan Free Trade Port are emerging, injecting strong momentum into foreign trade growth. 4. Hard to Get a Ticket! Number of Scottish Premiership Sponsors Surges to 20 It was reported that as of June 16, the number of Scottish Premiership sponsors had reached 20, more than three times the number at the start of the season. Amid sustained high popularity, the sponsorship fees for the "Scottish Premiership" had soared to 3 million yuan, and it was hard to get a ticket. Meanwhile, according to booking data from Meituan Travel, the booking volume for cultural and tourism activities in Jiangsu Province during the summer vacation had increased by 41% YoY. Over the past weekend, the tourism order volume in Jiangsu Province had surged to the top nationwide, with the order volume for dining in restaurants in Jiangsu contributed by out-of-town consumers increasing by over 49% YoY. The tourism order volume in Nanjing, the provincial capital, led the country, while Suzhou and Yangzhou had both ranked among the top 10, showing a booming trend of "full bloom". The "Scottish Premiership Effect" was amplified by policy support and the platform economy, driving comprehensive growth in the cultural, tourism, sports, and commercial sectors in Jiangsu. The ongoing Jiangsu Provincial City Football League has recently attracted a large number of fans to attend the games. According to Future Report data, the global football market size reached $55.97 billion in 2024 and is expected to expand at a compound annual growth rate of 3.9%, reaching $70.29 billion by 2030. Fang Guangzhao from Kaiyuan Securities believes that driven by both policy support and market demand growth, the Chinese football industry is expected to usher in a period of rapid development, and it is recommended to actively pay attention to investment opportunities related to the football industry chain. The development of the football industry is expected to drive demand for derivatives such as trading cards and sports lotteries. As a core component of the upstream events in the football industry chain, football clubs are expected to see their value continue to rise. In addition, with the rapid development of the football industry, the demand for high-grade football equipment and materials may increase significantly.

SMM, June 17: Metal Market: As of the midday close, domestic base metals generally fell, with SHFE nickel down 0.96%. SHFE copper rose 0.24%, and SHFE aluminum edged up. SHFE zinc slightly declined, while SHFE lead and SHFE tin fell 0.18% and 0.39%, respectively. In addition, the main continuous futures contract for foundry aluminum rose 0.62%, and the main continuous contract for alumina increased 0.28%. Lithium carbonate rose 0.67%, silicon metal rose 1.1%, and polysilicon rose 0.24%. The ferrous metals series showed mixed performance, with iron ore down 0.21%, rebar edging up, and HRC slightly declining. Stainless steel fell 0.36%. In terms of coking coal and coke: coking coal rose 1.02%, and coke rose 0.92%. In the overseas metal market, as of 11:42 a.m., LME metals all fell, with LME copper, LME tin, LME aluminum, and LME nickel all declining within 0.5%. LME aluminum fell 0.6%, and LME zinc fell 0.7%. In precious metals, as of 11:42 a.m., COMEX gold fell 0.42%, and COMEX silver fell 0.3%. Domestically, SHFE gold fell 1.54%, and SHFE silver edged up. Citi predicts that gold prices will fall due to weak demand and a US Fed interest rate cut. Citi said that gold prices will pull back to below $3,000 per ounce in the coming quarters. As of the midday close, the most-traded contract for the European container shipping index fell 1.71%, closing at 2031.5. As of 11:42 a.m. on June 17, the midday futures market movements for some contracts were as follows: 》SMM Metal Spot Prices on June 17 Spot and Fundamentals Zinc: Today, the mainstream transaction prices for 0# zinc were concentrated in the range of 21,940-22,105 yuan/mt, with Shuangyan zinc trading at 22,060-22,235 yuan/mt, and 1# zinc mainly trading at 21,870-22,035 yuan/mt. In the morning session, the market offered premiums of 0-20 yuan/mt against the average price, with no quotes against the contract price... 》Click for details Macro Front Domestic: [US exhibitors at the 3rd China International Supply Chain Expo increase by 15% from the previous edition] The 3rd China International Supply Chain Expo will be held in Beijing from July 16 to July 20, with the theme of "Connecting the World, Creating a Shared Future". This morning (June 17), the State Council Information Office held a press conference to introduce the preparations for the 3rd Expo. Li Xingqian, Vice Chairman of the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade, introduced that the number of US exhibitors at the 3rd Expo increased by 15% from the previous edition, continuing to rank first among overseas exhibitors. Relevant leaders from institutions such as the American Chamber of Commerce in China, the US Soybean Export Council, and the US Grains Council expressed that China is a very important market, and US companies are willing to continue investing in China, participating in China's economic growth and innovation, and making progress together with the Chinese market and development. Li Xingqian stated that the essence of China-US economic and trade relations is mutual benefit and win-win outcomes. Advancing mutually beneficial cooperation between China and the US aligns with the common interests of the business communities in both countries. (Cailian Press) [The PBOC Conducts RMB197.3 Billion in 7-Day Reverse Repo Operations Today] The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted RMB197.3 billion in 7-day reverse repo operations today, with an operating interest rate of 1.40%, unchanged from the previous rate. RMB198.6 billion in reverse repos matured today. ► On June 17, the central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar in the interbank foreign exchange market was 7.1746 RMB per US dollar. US dollar: As of 11:42, the US dollar index fell by 0.01% to 98.14. The market is looking forward to a series of monetary policy decisions from multiple central banks this week, with a primary focus on the US Fed. It is widely expected that the Fed will maintain interest rates unchanged at the conclusion of its policy meeting on Wednesday. Comments from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell following the Fed's interest rate decision will be closely monitored for clues regarding the path of interest rate cuts. Other currencies: The Bank of Japan (BOJ) released its latest monetary policy statement, maintaining its policy interest rate unchanged at 0.5% and slowing the pace of reducing its bond purchases. Starting from April 2026, the BOJ will reduce its bond purchases by JPY200 billion each quarter. The BOJ stated that the Japanese economy is experiencing a mild recovery, although there are still signs of weakness. (Cailian Press) Data: Today, data including the BOJ's policy benchmark interest rate for June 17, the ZEW Economic Sentiment Index for the Eurozone and Germany in June, the monthly and annual rates of the US import price index for May, the monthly rates of US retail sales and core retail sales for May, the annual rate of US retail sales for May, the monthly rate of the US retail sales control group associated with GDP, seasonally adjusted, for May, the monthly rate of US industrial production for May, the capacity utilisation rate of the US for May, the monthly rate of US manufacturing output for May, the manufacturing capacity utilisation rate of the US for May, and the annual rate of US industrial production, seasonally adjusted, for May, will be released. Additionally, it is noteworthy that RMB182 billion in 1-year medium-term lending facility (MLF) loans mature today; BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda will hold a monetary policy press conference; the BOJ will announce its interest rate decision; and US President Trump will visit Canada from June 15 to 17 to attend the G7 Leaders' Summit. Crude oil: Both WTI and Brent crude oil futures rose. As of 11:42, WTI crude oil increased by 0.47%, and Brent crude oil increased by 0.44%. Heightened tensions in the Middle East have increased the likelihood of deeper instability and disruptions to oil supplies in the region, supporting oil prices. OPEC and its allies, including Russia (OPEC+), stated on Monday that the global economy is expected to remain resilient in the second half of this year. OPEC also revised down its forecast for the growth in oil supply from the US and other non-OPEC countries in 2026. (Webstock Inc.) Spot Market Overview: ► Spot premiums surged significantly after contract rollover, but downstream procurement remained moderate. [SMM South China Spot Copper] ► Trading performance in the spot market was sluggish, with downstream players focusing on executing long-term contracts. [SMM North China Spot Copper] ► Shanghai Zinc: Futures market edged higher, with downstream players resuming wait-and-see stance. [SMM Midday Review] ► Ningbo Zinc: Imports at low prices exert pressure, with premiums continuing to decline. [SMM Midday Review] Midday reviews for other metal spot markets will be updated later. Please refresh to view.

SMM June 17 news: Metal market: Domestic base metals showed mixed performance overnight, with SHFE tin slightly down. SHFE copper rose 0.45%. SHFE nickel fell 0.48%. SHFE lead gained 0.35%. SHFE aluminum edged down 0.02%, while SHFE zinc advanced 0.62%. Additionally, the most-traded alumina futures contract increased 0.18%, and the most-traded cast aluminum contract climbed 0.64%. Overnight ferrous metals series mostly rose, with iron ore up 0.07%, stainless steel down 0.2%, rebar gaining 0.17%, and HRC slightly higher. For coking coal and coke: coking coal rose 1.08%, coke increased 0.85%. Overnight overseas market metals saw LME base metals generally rise, with LME copper up 0.52%, LME aluminum gaining 0.56%, LME lead rising 0.8%, LME zinc jumping 1.41%, while LME tin fell 0.44% and LME nickel declined 0.42%. Overnight precious metals: COMEX gold dropped 1.4%; COMEX silver edged up 0.04%. SHFE gold fell 1.37%, SHFE silver decreased 0.08%. As of 8:15 am June 17, overnight closing quotes 》Click to view SMM futures data dashboard Macro front Domestic: [Notice: MOFCOM to hold press conference on 19th regarding key work in commerce sector] The Ministry of Commerce will hold a press conference at 3 pm on Thursday, June 19, 2025, where its spokesperson will introduce recent key work in the commerce sector and take questions from reporters. [NAFMII convenes symposium on supporting high-quality development of automakers in China's interbank market] NAFMII held a symposium on June 16, 2025, discussing interbank market support for high-quality development of automakers. Representatives from automakers and lead underwriters attended, with the meeting chaired by NAFMII Vice President Zhong Xu. The association presented interbank market support for the automotive industry. Representatives from 9 companies - FAW, SAIC, BAIC Group, BYD, Geely Holding, Great Wall Motor, NIO Group, XPeng Motors, and Xiaomi Group - described challenges faced amid cut-throat competition and proposed suggestions for optimizing financing environment. Lead underwriters conducted on-site matchmaking for automakers' financing needs. Next, NAFMII will implement the Party Central Committee and State Council's strategic deployment on developing new quality productive forces through technological innovation, strengthen bond market system building and product innovation, optimize financial services tailored for the automotive sector, encourage automakers to increase bond financing while maintaining healthy development and avoiding disorderly competition, and actively promote intelligent, high-end, green transformation to advance China's automotive industry toward high-quality development. Cailian Press) [CPCA: 52,000 Pickup Trucks Sold in May, Up 13.6% YoY] According to data from the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA), in May 2025, 51,700 pickup trucks were produced nationwide, up 20.8% compared to May 2024. From January to May 2025, 255,000 pickup trucks were produced, up 23.4% YoY. In May 2025, 52,000 pickup trucks were sold in the market, up 13.6% compared to May 2024, and down 8.1% MoM from the previous month, remaining at a high level in the past five years. From January to May 2025, 258,000 pickup trucks were sold, up 18.2% YoY compared to January-May 2024. [Goldman Sachs Bullish Again: Global Capital Returns to China, Optimistic About China's "Top 10" Stocks] Kinger Lau, Chief China Equity Strategist at Goldman Sachs, recently released a research report titled "The Return of China's Private Enterprises: The Tide Has Turned." Lau pointed out that driven by various macro, policy, and micro factors, the medium-term investment prospects for China's private enterprises are improving. Goldman Sachs has listed China's "Top 10," namely the ten Chinese private publicly listed firms that Goldman Sachs is particularly bullish on. They are: Tencent, Alibaba, Xiaomi, BYD, Meituan, NetEase, Midea, Hengrui Medicine, Ctrip, and Anta. 》Click for details US Dollar: The US dollar index rose 0.03% overnight, closing at 98.15. The market is focused on the tense situation between Israel and Iran, as well as the US Fed's policy meeting this week. The Fed meeting will conclude on Wednesday. The market generally expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged. However, the market will be watching how the Fed views recent data, which generally indicate softening economic activity, but the risk of rising price pressures remains high. Other Currencies: Leaders of the Group of Seven (G7) began their annual summit in Canada. With about three weeks left until Trump's deadline for trade agreements, the market remains nervous as agreements with major trading partners such as the EU and Japan have not yet been signed. They will be looking for any progress made in any bilateral talks with the US on the sidelines of the G7 leaders' summit. (Webstock Inc.) Data: Today, data such as the Bank of Japan's policy benchmark interest rate on June 17, the ZEW Economic Sentiment Index for the Eurozone in June, the ZEW Economic Sentiment Index for Germany in June, the US monthly import price index for May, the US annual import price index for May, the US monthly retail sales for May, the US monthly core retail sales for May, the US annual retail sales for May, the US monthly retail sales control group associated with GDP for May - seasonally adjusted, the US monthly industrial output for May, the US capacity utilization rate for May, the US monthly manufacturing output for May, the US manufacturing capacity utilization rate for May, and the US annual industrial output for May - seasonally adjusted, will be released. In addition, it is worth noting that: Today, 182 billion yuan of one-year medium-term lending facility (MLF) matured; Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda held a monetary policy press conference; the Bank of Japan announced its interest rate decision; US President Trump visited Canada from June 15 to 17 to attend the G7 Leaders' Summit. Crude oil: Both WTI and Brent crude oil futures fell, with WTI down 2.06% and Brent down 2.33%. Market concerns about disruptions to crude oil supplies in the Middle East eased, leading to a decline in oil prices. The US Navy said on Monday that electronic interference with commercial shipping navigation systems around the Strait of Hormuz had surged in recent days, affecting vessels passing through the area. Approximately one-fifth of global oil consumption, or about 18-19 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil, condensate, and fuels, passes through the Strait. Iran, a member of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), currently produces about 3.3 million bpd of oil and fuels and exports more than 2 million bpd. Analysts and OPEC observers said that the spare capacity of OPEC oil-producing countries to increase production to offset any disruptions is roughly equivalent to Iran's production. A preliminary survey showed that US crude oil and distillate inventories likely fell last week, while gasoline inventories may have increased. Before the weekly inventory report was released, the average forecast of four surveyed analysts was that US crude oil inventories increased by about 600,000 barrels in the week ending June 13. US distillate inventories, including diesel and heating oil, were expected to decrease by about 100,000 barrels, while gasoline inventories were expected to increase by 200,000 barrels. The American Petroleum Institute (API) will release its weekly crude oil inventory report at 4:30 AM Beijing time on Wednesday, and the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) will release its weekly crude oil inventory report at 10:30 PM Beijing time on Wednesday. (Webstock Inc.)

SMM News on June 16: Metal Market: As of the midday close, domestic base metals generally declined, with SHFE copper slightly up by 0.08%, SHFE aluminum down by 0.27%, SHFE zinc down by 0.62%, SHFE lead and SHFE tin slightly down, and SHFE nickel down by 0.28%. In addition, the main continuous futures contract for foundry aluminum rose by 0.13%, while the main continuous contract for alumina fell by 0.97%. Lithium carbonate fell by 0.9%, silicon metal fell by 0.48%, and polysilicon rose by 1.47%. The ferrous metals series all rose, with iron ore up by 0.21%, rebar up by 0.91%, and HRC up by 0.88%. Stainless steel rose by 0.2%. In terms of coking coal and coke: coking coal rose by 1.87%, and coke rose by 1.11%. In the overseas metal market, as of 11:45, LME metals all declined, with LME copper, LME tin, LME lead, and LME nickel all falling within 0.1%. LME aluminum fell by 0.8%, and LME zinc fell by 0.34%. In precious metals, gold prices rose, approaching a two-month high, as escalating conflicts between Israel and Iran sparked concerns about a broader regional conflict, prompting the market to seek safe-haven assets. As of 11:45, COMEX gold rose by 0.01%, reaching an intraday high of $3,476.3/oz, refreshing the highest level since April 22; COMEX silver fell by 0.32%. Domestically, SHFE gold rose by 0.55%, and SHFE silver fell by 0.07%. As of the midday close, the most-traded contract for the European container shipping index fell by 1.81%, closing at 2077.2. As of 11:45 on June 16, some midday futures market movements: 》SMM Metal Spot Prices on June 16 Spot and Fundamentals Copper: Today, spot #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was quoted at a discount of 50 yuan/mt to a premium of 50 yuan/mt against the front-month contract, with an average premium of 0 yuan/mt, down 25 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. SX-EW copper was quoted at a discount of 110 yuan/mt to a discount of 90 yuan/mt, with an average discount of 100 yuan/mt, down 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was 78,590 yuan/mt, down 285 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average price of SX-EW copper was 78,490 yuan/mt, down 270 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot Market: Guangdong's inventory increased significantly after the weekend, mainly due to weak downstream purchasing sentiment amid a large price spread between futures contracts and the approaching delivery date... 》Click for details Macro Front Domestic Aspect: [National Bureau of Statistics (NBS): Industrial Added Value Above Designated Size Grew 5.8% YoY in May, Overall National Economy Remained Stable with Steady Progress] The NBS showed that in May, the industrial added value above designated size actually grew by 5.8% YoY. On a MoM basis, the value-added of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 0.61% in May compared to the previous month. From January to May, the value-added of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.3% YoY. By industry, in May, 35 out of 41 major industry categories maintained YoY growth in value-added. Specifically, the coal mining and washing industry grew by 5.5%, the oil and natural gas extraction industry by 5.3%, the agricultural and sideline food processing industry by 7.6%, the liquor, beverage, and refined tea manufacturing industry by 4.1%, the textile industry by 0.6%, the chemical raw material and chemical product manufacturing industry by 5.9%, the non-metallic mineral products industry declined by 0.6%, the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry by 4.8%, the non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry by 8.1%, the general equipment manufacturing industry by 6.3%, the special equipment manufacturing industry by 2.3%, the automobile manufacturing industry by 11.6%, the railway, shipbuilding, aerospace, and other transportation equipment manufacturing industry by 14.6%, the electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing industry by 11.0%, the computer, communication, and other electronic equipment manufacturing industry by 10.2%, and the electricity, heat production, and supply industry by 2.0%. Overall, in May, with the continuous release of the combined effects of policies, the effects of stabilizing the economy and promoting development became evident. The national economy maintained a generally stable and steady development trend with progress, fully demonstrating the resilience and vitality of China's economy. However, it should also be noted that there are many external unstable and uncertain factors, and the endogenous momentum for expanding domestic demand still needs to be strengthened. The foundation for the sustained rebound and improvement of the economy still needs to be consolidated. 》Click for details The People's Bank of China conducted 242 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations today, with an operating interest rate of 1.40%, unchanged from the previous rate. As 173.8 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos matured today, a net injection of 68.2 billion yuan was achieved. ► On June 16, the central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar in the inter-bank foreign exchange market was 7.1789 yuan per US dollar. US dollar aspect: As of 11:45, the US dollar index rose by 0.22% to 98.34. The US Federal Reserve is scheduled to hold a policy meeting from June 17 to 18 and make a decision on Wednesday. Although it is widely expected that the US Fed will keep interest rates stable, the market is eagerly anticipating signals of possible interest rate cuts in the coming months. Data aspect: Today, data such as the total reserve assets of the Eurozone in May, the New York Fed's Empire State Manufacturing Survey for June, and the New York Fed's Empire State Manufacturing Survey's six-month outlook index for June will be released. In addition, the New York Fed's Empire State Manufacturing Survey's six-month outlook index for June. Crude oil aspect: Both crude oil futures continued to climb. As of 11:45, US crude oil rose by 0.67%, and Brent crude oil rose by 0.59%. The intensifying conflict between Israel and Iran has fueled market concerns that tensions in the Middle East could escalate across the region and severely disrupt oil exports from the Middle East, thereby supporting oil prices. The latest developments have heightened market fears of potential blockages in the Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping lane. Approximately one-fifth of the world's total oil consumption, or around 18-19 million barrels per day of oil, condensate, and fuel oil, passes through the Strait of Hormuz. (Webstock Inc.) Spot Market Overview: ► With delivery approaching and a significant price spread between futures contracts, downstream users exhibit strong wait-and-see sentiment. [SMM Spot Copper in South China] ► Market activity cools on delivery day, with sluggish trading performance. [SMM Spot Copper in North China] ► [SMM Nickel Midday Review] On June 16, nickel prices declined slightly, with total retail sales of consumer goods in May up 6.4% YoY. Midday reviews of other metal spot prices will be updated later. Please refresh to view.