[Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to next week, the Shanghai spot copper market is expected to remain in a tug-of-war. Supply side, some suppliers had already sold part of their imported cargoes during the day, such as Onsan, SR-P, and Polish large plates, while a large volume of imported copper is still set to arrive next week, and whether actual supply will increase significantly remains to be seen. If copper prices continue to fluctuate rangebound within the current range, the increase in supply will weigh on spot premiums. Demand side, next week will usher in a stockpiling window ahead of the Qingming Festival, and downstream enterprises may have demand to restock in advance. Spot transactions are expected to improve, which may provide temporary support to premiums. In addition, from the perspective of market structure, the price spread between high-quality copper and standard-quality copper has remained at a relatively narrow level, reflecting that current market trading is mainly driven by actual consumption demand, with brand premiums weakening and buyers paying more attention to price itself rather than brand differences. Overall, Shanghai spot copper prices against the 2604 contract are expected to remain at the current level next Monday.

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Copper prices opened lower with a gap in the night session yesterday, and some enterprises placed orders to restock at low levels. Intraday purchasing demand increased somewhat, but given that restocking had already been concentrated the previous day, the actual increase in new procurement was limited. According to data released by SHFE on March 19, SHFE copper warrants fell by 12,200 mt during the day, confirming that after copper prices pulled back, downstream enthusiasm for buying the dip picked up, and the center of spot premiums moved higher accordingly. From the market structure perspective, the import profit window widened slightly, and expectations for subsequent inflows of cargo from outside China strengthened, which may put some pressure on the supply side. Overall, amid the tug-of-war between faster destocking and supplier selling, Shanghai spot copper premiums are expected to remain at the current level tomorrow.

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Intraday trading in the spot market improved somewhat from yesterday. Suppliers still showed willingness to hold prices firm, but some suppliers’ sell-offs temporarily weighed on the market, causing spot premiums to decline in the second trading session. Coupled with the narrowing Contango price spread between futures contracts of different months, suppliers’ willingness to ship to delivery warehouse weakened, and spot premiums remained under pressure. Demand side, as copper prices fell, downstream enterprises may have had some restocking demand, but the actual appeal of current copper prices remained limited. Supply side, social inventory was still at a high level, but actually circulating cargoes were relatively tight. Some warrants were already seen flowing out during the day, which may ease some pressure on spot supply. Meanwhile, the import window remained open, and expectations for subsequent inflows of cargoes from outside China continued to rise. Overall, amid the tug-of-war between sellers and buyers, SHFE copper spot is expected to maintain the current discount pattern overall tomorrow.

As of March 9, SMM recorded total social inventory of copper cathode in major regions of China at 578,900 mt, up 1,700 mt from last week and up 70,400 mt from February 24, reaching a historical high. Over the same period, spot premiums for SMM #1 copper cathode gradually recovered from premium -260 yuan/mt on February 27 to parity on March 10. Overall, this upswing in spot premiums was mainly driven by the approach of delivery, under which the contango price spread between nearby and next-month contracts stayed around 300 yuan/mt; suppliers held prices firm and withheld sales, while about half of the material was converted into warrants and locked in, jointly tightening circulating supply. Observing the inventory accumulation pace, from the week of March 2 to March 9, inventories in three key regions increased by 14,400 tons, a growth of 2.65%. This marks a significant slowdown compared to the average weekly increase of approximately 45,000 tons during the period from February 5 to February 26. The deceleration in inventory buildup provided room for improvement in premiums. Current inventory accumulation primarily stems from two factors: First, the continued arrival of imported copper. According to SMM research, a substantial volume of imported copper continues to arrive recently, and it is expected that arrivals will not see a significant decline in March. The steady inflow of imported materials provides a continuous supply supplement to the domestic market and is a crucial support for maintaining high total inventory levels. The actual situation of imported arrivals in April remains to be confirmed, requiring close attention to customs data at month-end and changes in port clearance pace. Second, some cargoes are being delivered into bonded/warehouse warrant stocks. According to the electrolytic copper spot purchasing and selling sentiment indices for the Shanghai region recorded by SMM, the purchasing sentiment index rose from 2.08 on February 24 to 2.78 on March 10, while the selling sentiment index increased from 2.09 to 2.90 over the same period. Some downstream players have limited acceptance of current copper prices, maintaining a procurement strategy focused on immediate needs, resulting in selling sentiment slightly outpacing purchasing sentiment. Based on SMM's communications with enterprises: Upstream Producer 1: Recent consumption is relatively good, with daily sales around 2,000 tons. Upstream Producer 2: Currently produced electrolytic copper is primarily for export. Domestic inventories are low, so there's no rush to sell. Unwilling to sell when discounts are excessive. Trader 1: Quotations in the Changzhou market are higher than in Shanghai, mainly because locally available circulating cargoes are mostly warrants. Under the current spread structure, holders have high flexibility in selling – they can choose to sell or hold. Trader 2: The market is not short of supply; there are still a large number of warrants in warehouses awaiting digestion. However, due to the delivery mechanism, the incentive to sell depends on the premium level. Only when the premium exceeds the cost of capital will there be a strong willingness to liquidate. Downstream User 1: Recent orders are relatively robust. When copper prices fell on March 9, we already replenished inventories at the low point. Current raw material inventory can sustain operations until March 15. There are no immediate plans for further procurement; subsequent needs will primarily be met through long-term contract drawdowns. Downstream User 2: The recent spot premium has been quite firm, mainly due to the spread between months. Without such a high monthly spread, the premium would definitely not reach this level. In summary, this round of recovery in spot premiums is driven by multiple factors: First, the approach of delivery and the widening monthly spread strengthened holders' willingness to support prices. With delivery approaching, the Contango spread between months remains around 300 yuan/ton. Holders are underpinning prices, reluctant to sell, and strongly inclined to deliver stocks into warrants. Second, the inventory structure further amplified the tightness of available circulating supply. Taking Jiangsu as an example, out of 118,000 tons of social inventory, 94,000 tons were futures warrants. This portion is locked in delivery warehouses, making it difficult to form effective supply in the short term, leading to a phase of relative tightness in spot market circulating cargoes. According to SMM, some downstream companies in Jiangsu struggled to source materials in the market and opted to procure using the SMM Flat Copper Price average as a benchmark with minor adjustments. Third, the comprehensive resumption of work by downstream enterprises released procurement demand. After the Lantern Festival, downstream processing enterprises in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai entered a full resumption phase. Surveys indicate that companies in the battery materials sector maintain high operating rates. Copper foil processors reported that downstream battery manufacturers sustain high operating rates, with March production schedules already showing characteristics of the peak season. Copper tube companies, supported by peak season stocking from the air conditioning industry, have operating rates exceeding pre-holiday levels. Although the recovery pace in the wire & cable and copper rod sectors is relatively slow, overall procurement demand has significantly improved compared to the first week after the holiday. Fourth, the decline in copper prices activated downstream restocking intentions. Recently, Shanghai copper futures prices retreated somewhat, stimulating downstream enterprises to purchase at dips. Previously suppressed by high copper prices, downstream players mostly maintained a cautious just-in-time procurement strategy, resulting in generally low raw material inventory levels. After the price pullback, some companies took the opportunity to replenish stocks, boosting spot transaction activity.

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] As the delivery period approaches, spot discounts for SHFE copper are expected to continue narrowing steadily. From the perspective of market structure, the inter-month contango price spread between futures contracts has widened, significantly strengthening suppliers’ willingness to ship to delivery warehouses. In particular, inventory in Jiangsu is mainly in the form of warrants, and suppliers tend to opt for delivery rather than spot sales, resulting in persistently tight availability of deliverable spot cargo. In addition, spot premiums quotes in Jiangsu are slightly higher than those in Shanghai. Against this backdrop, suppliers showed a strong willingness to hold prices firm intraday, and quotes in the second session were raised slightly, making procurement more difficult for some downstream enterprises. Looking ahead to tomorrow, under delivery-driven dynamics, spot premiums in Shanghai are expected to remain at current levels.

SMM Morning Meeting Minutes: On Friday night last week, LME copper opened at $12,871.5/mt. After fluctuating rangebound in early trading, it dipped to $12,805.5/mt, then the center rose to a high of $12,927.5/mt, and finally closed at $12,869/mt, up 0.08%. Trading volume fell by 3,517 lots from the previous trading day to 24,000 lots; open interest increased by 2,377 lots from the previous trading day to 308,000 lots, mainly reflecting bulls adding positions overall. On Friday night last week, the most-traded SHFE copper 2604 contract opened at 100,250 yuan/mt. It bottomed at 100,180 yuan/mt in early trading, then the center rose to a high of 100,820 yuan/mt, and finally closed at 100,250 yuan/mt while fluctuating rangebound, down 0.53%. Trading volume fell by 58,000 lots from the previous trading day to 69,000 lots; open interest increased by 1,229 lots from the previous trading day to 197,000 lots, mainly reflecting bears adding positions overall.

Looking ahead to next week, spot discounts for Shanghai spot copper are expected to continue a steady recovery trend. From the market structure perspective, the price spread between futures contracts for the next-month C contract remains around 300 yuan/mt, prompting suppliers to hold prices firm and withhold sales; meanwhile, the downward shift in the center of copper prices has effectively stimulated downstream purchase willingness, driving a notable rise in spot premiums. Supply side, domestically produced copper and previously price-locked imported cargoes continue to arrive, and with social inventory at elevated levels, overall circulating supply in the market remains ample.

SMM Morning Meeting Minutes: Overnight, LME copper opened at $12,843/mt, fluctuated downward in early trading to a low of $12,722/mt, then rose in a stepwise manner and climbed to $12,987/mt near the close, finally settling at $12,964.5/mt, down 0.92%. Trading volume reached 40,500 lots, and open interest reached 307,000 lots, down 4,847 lots from the previous trading day, mainly due to long position reductions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2704 contract opened at 100,530 yuan/mt, then fluctuated downward to a low of 100,200 yuan/mt. Subsequently, the center of copper prices gradually moved higher and hit a high of 101,530 yuan/mt near the close, finally settling at 101,330 yuan/mt, down 1.05%. Trading volume reached 92,000 lots, and open interest reached 194,000 lots, down 3,792 lots from the previous trading day, mainly due to long position reductions.

[Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to tomorrow, SHFE copper spot discounts are expected to remain under pressure. Although the spot discounts showed some recovery today, the overall market is still constrained by the continuous increase in supply. In the early session, some suppliers were more willing to hold prices firm, with high-quality copper and some parity copper quotes relatively strong, but actual transactions were sluggish. However, in the second trading period, some suppliers began to offload their stocks, with brands like Tiefeng quoting a discount of 300 yuan/mt, pulling down the overall price of parity copper, indicating that supply pressure remains the dominant factor. From a market structure perspective, the high contango spread between futures contracts continues to encourage suppliers to ship to delivery warehouses, which will continue to divert spot liquidity. At the same time, imported and domestically produced copper continue to arrive, with OLYDA and other sources already seen during the day, continuously replenishing the supply side. On the demand side, although resumption of work is progressing, the overall pace of recovery remains slow, coupled with high copper prices, making it difficult to provide effective support for the discounts. Overall, the continuous increase in supply is suppressing demand recovery, and the oversupply situation in the spot market remains unchanged.

Looking ahead to next week, SHFE copper spot supply is set to increase, with Peruvian and Japanese cargoes visible intraday. The contango spread between adjacent months widened slightly, and persistent willingness to deliver to warehouses further diverts spot liquidity. Although some suppliers hold prices firm, expectations of warrant outflows pressure spot premiums/discounts. Downstream production has not fully resumed; procurement sentiment is cautious but recovering. Amid supply-demand mismatch, social inventory is expected to continue building. Overall, supply pressure will keep spot discounts under pressure next week.