SMM July 28 At 11:30 today, the futures closing price was 104,990 yuan/mt, down 240 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average spot premium was 275 yuan/mt, down 5 yuan/mt DoD. Today, copper scrap prices remained flat DoD. The copper scrap sales sentiment index fell to 2.52, and the purchase sentiment index fell to 2.15. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 3,873 yuan/mt, down 240 yuan/mt DoD. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 1,080 yuan/mt. According to the SMM survey, copper prices saw a slight correction. As premiums remained high, copper scrap traders faced increasing difficulty selling, and many secondary copper rod enterprises were unwilling to purchase when premiums were high. Copper scrap market trading was mediocre during the day.

SMM Morning Meeting Minutes: Overnight, LME copper opened at $13,746/mt, consolidated at highs in early trading, rose to $13,781.5/mt before its center moved lower, then dipped to a low of $13,704/mt, and finally moved sideways to close at $13,759.5/mt, up 1.09%. Trading volume reached 16,000 lots, open interest at 244,000 lots, down 1,039 lots from the previous trading day, reflecting bearish position reduction. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2609 contract opened at 105,500 yuan/mt, rose to a high of 105,640 yuan/mt in early trading, before its center shifted lower to touch a low of 105,060 yuan/mt. Its center then moved sideways, eventually closing at 105,280 yuan/mt, down 0.31%. Trading volume was 34,000 lots, open interest at 206,000 lots, down 26.83 million lots from the previous trading day, also reflecting bearish position reduction.

SMM July 27 The futures closing price at 11:30 today was 105,230 yuan/mt, up 340 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average spot premium was 280 yuan/mt, down 45 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Today, copper scrap prices remained unchanged from the previous trading day. The copper scrap sales sentiment index was unchanged at 2.6, while the purchasing sentiment index rose to 2.21. The price spread between copper cathode and scrap was 4,113 yuan/mt, up 295 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The price spread between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 1,230 yuan/mt. According to the SMM survey, copper prices consolidated at highs. Suppliers of copper scrap, having actively shipped earlier and with low inventories, saw their selling sentiment fail to continue the trend of the previous week. Meanwhile, with ample inventories, downstream scrap utilization enterprises mainly adopted a wait-and-see approach in the short term, planning to reconsider purchasing once copper prices pull back.

SMM July 24 At 11:30 today, the futures closing price was 104,890 yuan/mt, down 1,280 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average spot premium was 325 yuan/mt, down 5 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Today, copper scrap prices fell by 500 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The copper scrap sales sentiment index dropped to 2.6, and the purchasing sentiment index dropped to 2.2. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 3,818 yuan/mt, down 27 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 1,130 yuan/mt. According to the SMM survey, copper prices pulled back. Many copper scrap traders delivered short positions they had taken earlier. Meanwhile, secondary copper rod enterprises expected copper prices still had room to pull back. Additionally, as copper scrap traders delivered short positions, the raw material inventory of secondary copper rod enterprises, including in-transit stocks, was ample. Therefore, spot transactions were mediocre during the day.

SMM Morning Brief: Overnight, LME copper opened at $13,740/mt, touched a high of $13,764/mt in early trading, then its price center consolidated lower toward the close, dipping to $13,560/mt, and finally settled at $13,566/mt, down 1.74%. Trading volume reached 20,000 lots, and open interest stood at 247,000 lots, up 1,022 lots from the previous trading day, reflecting an increase in bearish positions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2609 contract opened at 105,100 yuan/mt, initially moved up to 105,290 yuan/mt, then its price center shifted straight down to hit a low of 104,310 yuan/mt, and afterwards moved sideways to eventually settle at 104,530 yuan/mt, down 1.4%. Trading volume totaled 67,600 lots, and open interest reached 212,000 lots, down 12,500 lots from the previous trading day, reflecting a reduction in bullish positions.

SMM July 23 At 11:30 today, the futures closing price was 106,170 yuan/mt, down 170 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average spot premiums were 330 yuan/mt, down 65 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Today, copper scrap prices fell by 300 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The copper scrap sales sentiment index rose to 2.66, and the procurement sentiment index rose to 2.29. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 4,545 yuan/mt, up 101 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 1,860 yuan/mt. According to the SMM survey, copper scrap suppliers maintained high-price shipments from yesterday, but secondary copper rod enterprises had relatively ample raw materials, coupled with growing fear of high prices, leading to relatively mediocre intraday market trading of copper scrap.

SMM Morning Briefing: Overnight LME copper opened at $13,857/mt, drifted lower in early trading to touch a low of $13,781.5/mt, then its price center rose in a straight line to hit a high of $13,934/mt, and finally closed at $13,905.5/mt, up 1.91%. Trading volume reached 32,700 contracts, and open interest stood at 244,000 contracts, an increase of 344 contracts from the previous trading day, with bulls adding positions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2609 contract opened at 106,130 yuan/mt, dipped early to 105,830 yuan/mt, then its price center climbed all the way, touching a high of 106,760 yuan/mt near the end of the session, and finally closed at 106,600 yuan/mt, up 1.69%. Trading volume reached 55,000 contracts, and open interest stood at 225,000 contracts, an increase of 9,557 contracts from the previous trading day, with bulls adding positions.

SMM Morning Meeting Minutes: Overnight LME copper opened at $13,604/mt, and amid wild swings at the beginning of the session, it dipped to a low of $13,590/mt. It then continued to swing wildly, rising to a high of $13,645/mt near the end of the session, and eventually closed at $13,644.5/mt, up 0.86%. Trading volume reached 15,600 lots, and open interest stood at 244,000 lots, down 1,039 lots from the previous trading day, indicating a reduction in bearish positions. Overnight the most-traded SHFE copper 2609 contract opened at 104,490 yuan/mt, and initially dipped to a low of 104,240 yuan/mt. It then drifted higher to touch a high of 104,680 yuan/mt, afterwards moving sideways, and finally settled at 104,480 yuan/mt, up 0.69%. Trading volume reached 33,800 lots, and open interest stood at 192,000 lots, up 1,706 lots from the previous trading day, indicating an increase in bullish positions.

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Last Friday night, LME copper opened at $13,413/mt, dipped to an early low of $13,382/mt, then the center of copper prices drifted higher, climbing to $13,533/mt near the close, and finally settled at $13,528/mt, down 0.11%. Trading volume reached 19,600 lots, and open interest stood at 245,000 lots, an increase of 3,041 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bearish position-building. Last Friday night, the most-traded SHFE copper 2609 contract opened at 103,100 yuan/mt, dipped to 103,000 yuan/mt early in the session, then drifted higher to hit a high of 103,990 yuan/mt near the close, finally closing at 103,880 yuan/mt, up 0.15%. Trading volume was 31,000 lots, and open interest was 184,000 lots, up 3,839 lots from the previous trading day, reflecting bullish position additions.

This week (July 13-16), the copper scrap market operated under a triple framework of copper prices retreating after rapid rises, ongoing reverse-invoicing compliance constraints, and deepening high-temperature off-season. The most-traded SHFE copper contract surged to 105,020 yuan/mt mid-week, up nearly 2,000 yuan/mt from the start of the week. However, copper scrap prices were supported by compliance costs and suppliers holding prices firm, so the weekly price fluctuation was less than 1,000 yuan/mt. The price spread between primary metal and scrap widened from 2,445 yuan/mt at the start of the week to 3,923 yuan/mt, up more than 2,200 yuan/mt from the previous weekend. The widening spread was entirely driven by the unilateral rise in copper cathode. The resistance of copper scrap to decline was a key supply-side feature this week, which directly spurred hedging-related purchase demand from secondary copper rod enterprises. The supply side continued the structurally tight pattern seen since 2026. The first underlying constraint was reverse-invoicing compliance requirements: aftershocks from compliance inspections in Jiangxi and Hubei in south China persisted, and invoice quotas remained restricted in Shuyang, Jiangsu, leaving available compliant and deductible copper scrap persistently tight. The second was that after Document 770 eliminated irregular local tax rebates at the end of 2025, small and medium-sized copper scrap traders that previously relied on subsidies were continuously exiting the market, and overall available supply contracted markedly compared with the same period in previous years. Additionally, suppliers generally held a psychological defense of not selling cheap before copper prices break below 100,000 yuan/mt, and the selling pace throughout the week closely followed copper price fluctuations. At the start of the week when copper prices pulled back, strong hold-back sentiment prevailed, and tight supply left secondary copper rod enterprises struggling to find low-priced material. In mid-week when copper prices surged above 105,000 yuan/mt, suppliers’ willingness to sell at fixed prices increased, but because downstream scrap-using sectors had weak orders in the off-season and low acceptance of high prices, sales did not occur in large volumes. Most material was purchased by secondary copper rod enterprises using a hedging logic of buying raw material and shorting futures, not for actual production restocking. Many rod enterprises stopped pricing directly after purchasing enough to meet daily demand in the morning session and did not chase higher prices to buy. At the end of the week copper prices consolidated and pulled back, suppliers switched back to hold-back mode, and supply tightened again. Regional divergence persisted. In south China, due to compliance costs and slow capital turnover, bare bright copper purchase prices were 400-600 yuan/mt lower than in the north, maintaining the unusual structure of different prices for the same material. Traders maintained a low-inventory strategy of quick turnover, not daring to stockpile and bet on rising prices. The issue of payment collection cycles extending beyond two weeks remained unresolved, further limiting the release of supply elasticity. The demand side remained overall weak, with secondary copper rod enterprises reporting scarce new orders throughout the week. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod surged to 1,510 yuan/mt mid-week, touching the critical line of economic viability, but lacked sustainability and pulled back to 950 yuan/mt by the week's end. Meanwhile, secondary copper rods remained at a premium to copper futures due to rigid raw material costs. New orders at terminal wire and cable enterprises were weak, and they still held wait-and-see expectations that "copper prices have further downside room," with procurement mainly driven by rigid demand in pulses. Throughout the week, copper scrap transactions were largely driven by copper price fluctuations and hedging demand, while restocking volume for actual production was minimal. After copper prices pulled back at the week's end, rod enterprises' purchase willingness weakened further. The market displayed a weak equilibrium where "when copper prices rise, suppliers sell and rod enterprises collect for hedging; when copper prices fall, suppliers hold back and rod enterprises wait for lower prices." Currently, the market remains constrained by the dual restrictions of compliant invoices and off-season demand. Going forward, if the price difference between primary metal and scrap stabilizes above 1,500 yuan/mt and the implementation rules for reverse invoicing become clearer, this may trigger the release of some rigid demand; otherwise, the weak transaction pattern will persist.