[SMM Analysis: Copper Prices Rebound at Week's End, Marginal Improvement in Copper Scrap Supply] In the first week of July (June 30-July 3), the copper scrap market operated under three overlapping factors: the second week after the implementation of the reverse invoicing regulation, the onset of the high-temperature off-season, and copper prices holding the 100,000 yuan mark. The overall supply-demand weakness that began in June persisted. The most-traded SHFE copper contract moved sideways within the 102,020-103,070 yuan/mt range, never breaching the psychological level of 100,000 yuan/mt, while the wait-and-see sentiment among end-users remained unabated...

[SMM Copper Cathode Rod Flash] Copper rod producers slightly replenished raw materials on demand, with raw material inventory inching up MoM; downstream cargo pick-up slowed, finished product inventories rose, and end-user purchase willingness was weak.

SMM July 3 At 11:30 today, the futures closing price was 103,070 yuan/mt, up 890 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average spot premium was 60 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Today, copper scrap prices rose 100 yuan/mt MoM. The sales sentiment index for copper scrap rose to 2.41, and the procurement sentiment index dropped to 2.40. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 1,957 yuan/mt, up 788 yuan/mt MoM. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 520 yuan/mt. According to SMM survey, copper prices rebounded by the end of the week, and the price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap widened again to 1,900 yuan/mt. Holders of copper scrap showed a strong willingness to sell, while secondary copper rod enterprises exhibited weak restocking sentiment. This week, due to continuous premiums of secondary copper rod against copper futures, transactions were minimal. The increase in finished product inventories dampened secondary copper rod enterprises' willingness to restock raw materials.

SMM Morning Meeting Minutes: Overnight, LME copper opened at $13,256.5/mt, dipped to $13,240/mt early in the session, then drifted higher to touch a high of $13,398/mt before its price center gradually shifted lower to eventually close at $13,285.5/mt, down 0.34%. Trading volume reached 14,800 lots, and open interest stood at 250,000 lots, an increase of 8,743 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bears added positions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2608 contract opened at 102,470 yuan/mt, drifted higher early on to test 102,960 yuan/mt, then its price center shifted lower and it moved sideways, hitting a low of 102,280 yuan/mt near the end of the session before ultimately closing at 102,410 yuan/mt, up 0.12%. Trading volume reached 34,800 lots, and open interest stood at 152,000 lots, a decrease of 3,155 lots from the previous trading day, reflecting a reduction in bearish positions.

SMM July 2 At 11:30 today, the futures closing price was 102,180 yuan/mt, up 160 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average spot premium was 50 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The copper scrap price rose by 200 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The copper scrap selling sentiment index dropped to 2.32, and the buying sentiment index dropped to 2.45. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 1,169 yuan/mt, down 53 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 130 yuan/mt. According to the SMM survey, on the second day of the implementation of the "reverse invoicing" rule, the copper scrap market showed no significant changes. With tight supply, the copper scrap price struggled to widen its spread against copper cathode. Many secondary copper rod enterprises continued to make just-in-time procurement.

SMM Morning Call Summary: Overnight, LME copper opened at $13,120/mt, dipped to a low of $13,103.5/mt in early trading, then the price center drifted higher to touch $13,364/mt, after which it swung wildly and finally closed at $13,330.5/mt, down 0.37%, with trading volume at 23,000 lots and open interest at 242,000 lots, a decrease of 3,122 lots from the previous trading day, indicating long position reduction. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2608 contract opened at 101,830 yuan/mt, dipped to 101,640 yuan/mt in early trading, then the price center moved sharply higher to touch 102,930 yuan/mt, after which it swung wildly and finally closed at 102,520 yuan/mt, up 0.07%, with trading volume at 50,000 lots and open interest at 154,000 lots, a decrease of 286 lots from the previous trading day, indicating short position reduction.

SMM July 1 At 11:30 today, the futures closing price was 102,020 yuan/mt, down 490 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average spot premiums were 40 yuan/mt, up 40 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Copper scrap prices fell 100 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The sales sentiment index for copper scrap dropped to 2.36, while the procurement sentiment index rose to 2.48. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 1,222 yuan/mt, down 338 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 160 yuan/mt. According to the SMM survey, entering the high-temperature off-season in July, secondary copper rod enterprises reported a decline in downstream orders. At the same time, copper prices continued to decline, and copper scrap traders held back from selling, leading to relatively high copper scrap prices. As a result, secondary copper rod prices were quoted at a premium of 200-300 yuan/mt over futures, with transactions remaining extremely sluggish.

SMM Morning Report: Overnight, LME copper opened at $13,383.5/mt. Early in the session, amid wild swings, it touched a low of $13,334/mt, before the center of copper prices shifted upward sharply to reach a high of $13,433/mt. It then drifted lower to finally close at $13,380/mt, up 0.27%. Trading volume was 17,000 lots, and open interest was 245,000 lots, down 1,684 lots from the previous trading day, reflecting bearish position reduction. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2608 contract opened at 102,870 yuan/mt. Early in the session, it dipped to 102,640 yuan/mt, then the price center shifted higher to touch a high of 103,420 yuan/mt, before drifting lower, moving sideways, and finally closing at 102,880 yuan/mt, up 0.38%. Trading volume reached 34,000 lots, and open interest 154,000 lots, down 1,382 lots from the previous trading day, reflecting bearish position reduction.

[SMM Copper Flash] Futures pulled back somewhat in early trading, while downstream enterprises await the detailed implementation rules of US tariffs, leaving significant uncertainty over future price trends; during the previous copper price correction, downstream enterprises had already completed concentrated price-fixing and restocking, which has overdrawn current procurement demand, and new orders for copper rod enterprises have weakened notably; market wait-and-see sentiment is strong, and copper rod processing fees remain unchanged.

[SMM Copper Express] The Changbei 750 kV Power Transmission and Transformation Project has a total investment of 1.3125 billion yuan. It involves constructing one new 750 kV substation and erecting 56.8 kilometers of supporting 750 kV power transmission lines, and is planned to be completed and put into operation in 2028. After commissioning, the project will accommodate the connection needs of regional PV collection stations and have the capacity to integrate 10 million to 12 million kW of new energy. The substation's transformation and cable equipment will consume a large amount of copper cathode rod, which will boost copper rod demand in Northwest China over the long term.