SMM, June 15 dispatch: Data highlights: As of Monday, June 15, SMM copper inventories in major regions across China continued destocking WoW, with total inventory reaching 207,700 mt, up 60,000 mt from 147,700 mt in the same period last year, and regional performance diverged. Specifically, in Shanghai, the pace of warehouse withdrawals accelerated, but arrivals of both imported and domestic copper cathode remained low, leading to continued destocking. In Jiangsu, insufficient arrivals weighed on consumption, and inventory declined in tandem. In Guangdong, approaching delivery prompted concentrated arrivals from smelters, while sluggish weekend consumption pushed inventory buildup. Market outlook: In the near term, arrivals of imported copper and domestic copper cathode are expected to stay low, keeping overall market supply tight. On the demand side, copper prices climbed back to high levels, curbing downstream procurement appetite. Survey data indicates that this week, the operating rate of copper cathode rod is projected to rise to 68.36%, up 0.89 percentage point WoW. Considering supply-demand dynamics, short-term market supply will remain tight while demand sticks to just-in-time procurement; China's domestic copper social inventory is expected to continue destocking next week.

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to tomorrow, SHFE copper prices are expected to rise intraday and remain at a relatively high level. Coupled with the futures contract rollover, trading activity is likely to be muted, reflecting that the current price level is significantly suppressing real demand. After the rollover, the market will officially price around the 2607 contract, and close attention should be paid to the outflow of unmatched warrants. However, open interest for the SHFE copper 2606 contract currently stands at approximately 5,500 lots, indicating limited delivery participation. The concentrated release of warrants is therefore expected to exert relatively limited additional pressure on spot discounts. Supported by delivery-related dynamics, Shanghai spot copper discounts did not see a sharp decline. But if copper prices remain at current highs and demand fails to improve effectively, spot premiums may come under downward pressure.

[SMM North China Copper Cathode Market] Intraday copper prices rebounded, and downstream new orders showed a slowdown. However, as copper semis downstream gradually fulfilled orders placed after the previous copper price weakness, enterprises picked up goods today to restock copper cathode raw material.

SMM June 15: Today, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract were: high-quality copper at a premium of 240 yuan/mt, down 30 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper at a premium of 180 yuan/mt, down 30 yuan/mt; SX-EW copper at a premium of 120 yuan/mt, down 30 yuan/mt. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 105,810 yuan/mt, up 1,095 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average price of SX-EW copper was 105,720 yuan/mt, up 1,095 yuan/mt. Spot market: After the weekend, Guangdong inventory finally increased, up 3,600 mt from last Friday. The main reasons were concentrated shipments from smelters near the delivery date and inactive downstream restocking. Affected by this, suppliers proactively lowered prices to sell today, and premiums declined. However, even so, trading was still not active today. It is expected to only gradually improve tomorrow. The procurement sentiment for copper cathode in Guangdong today was 2.02, down 0.2 from the previous trading day, and the sales sentiment was 2.34, down 0.3 (historical data can be accessed in the database). Overall, copper prices and inventory both rose. Suppliers proactively lowered prices to sell, but actual transactions remained poor.

In North China today, spot #1 copper cathode against the front-month contract was quoted at an average discount of 200–140 yuan/mt, with the average discount at 170 yuan/mt, up 30 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average transaction price was 105,605 yuan/mt, up 1,115 yuan/mt from the previous trading day.

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Last Friday night, LME copper opened at $13,675/mt, then its price center fluctuated downward to a low of $13,611/mt, before fluctuating upward, climbing to $13,729.5/mt near the end of the session, and eventually closed at $13,713.5/mt, up 1.02%. Trading volume reached 19,000 lots, and open interest reached 266,000 lots, an increase of 1,001 lots from the previous trading day, indicating long positions added. Last Friday night, the most-traded SHFE copper 2607 contract opened at 104,280 yuan/mt, immediately dipped to 104,250 yuan/mt after opening, then its price center fluctuated upward all the way to a high of 105,050 yuan/mt, and eventually closed at 104,980 yuan/mt, up 0.31%. Trading volume reached 25,000 lots, and open interest reached 148,000 lots, a decrease of 1,207 lots from the previous trading day, indicating short positions reduced.

In May 2026, the operating rate of secondary copper rod was 14.7%, higher than expectations of 12.17%, up 1.91 percentage points MoM and down 15.22 percentage points YoY. During May, China's secondary copper rod market as a whole remained caught in a combination of high copper prices, sharp fluctuations, and regulatory compliance pressure. The month was marked not by a one-sided shortage or surplus, but by a more intractable structural stalemate

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to tomorrow, next Monday marks the last trading day for the SHFE copper 2606 contract. According to SMM's #1 copper cathode price assessment methodology, SMM always quotes against the front-month contract. During the day, the center of copper prices moved up, and downstream procurement sentiment pulled back slightly, indicating that high prices somewhat curbed demand. Approaching delivery, suppliers showed a relatively strong willingness to deliver their open interest, keeping available cargo tight. In addition, spot inventory in the Guangdong region remained at a low level, with offers at a premium of around 200 yuan/mt, which may lend some support to premiums in the Shanghai region. Overall, premiums for Shanghai spot copper against the SHFE 2606 copper contract next Monday are expected to remain at a premium level.

This week, macro sentiment was shaped by two key narratives: accelerating US-Iran peace talks and higher-than-expected inflation. Peace talks notably heated up—Trump said a peace deal could be signed in Europe as soon as this weekend, and Iran allowed 10 tankers through the Strait of Hormuz as a goodwill gesture. Brent crude fell to a near two-month low of around $89/bbl as geopolitical risk premiums quickly faded. Mid-week, however, May CPI rose to 4.2% YoY, the first breach above 4% in three years (driven by energy, with core at 2.9%). The market’s expectation for the US Fed shifted from rate cuts to a possible hike within the year, and tightening fears weighed on industrial metals demand; copper prices briefly hit a three-week low. By the week’s end, optimism around US-Iran relations eased growth concerns, and copper prices rebounded, with COMEX recovering to around $6.35/lb. Overall, easing geopolitical tensions and sticky inflation offset each other. Ahead of the June 17 FOMC meeting (the first chaired by new Chair Warsh, who is expected to hold rates steady), the market leans toward a wait-and-see stance. Copper prices pulled back from highs on macro headwinds, with increased volatility. Fundamentals side, China’s spot market notably strengthened. On inventory, SMM social inventory fell to recent lows, and suppliers showed a strong willingness to hold prices firm. Spot premiums quickly flipped from discounts; South China premiums surged around 230 yuan/mt in total this week, with the approaching delivery-related backwardation structure supporting SHFE copper premiums. Demand side, dip-buying activity picked up when copper prices fell and trading recovered, but as prices rebounded, downstream buying interest was suppressed and the market cooled—overall, demand remained need-based. The SHFE/LME price ratio recovered slightly, with buyers showing greater purchase willingness. The overall picture is one of low-inventory support, strengthening spot premiums, and a demand pattern that switches with price moves, lending support to copper’s downside. Looking ahead to next week, macro focus will center on the June 17 FOMC meeting (attention on Warsh’s comments on the inflation overshoot and the dot plot), whether the US-Iran deal materializes and progress on Strait of Hormuz navigation resumption, while the June 30 US copper cathode tariff ruling adds further uncertainty. If peace talks deliver and geopolitical risk continues to recede, risk appetite could recover but crude oil and inflation expectations would likely pull back in tandem; if sticky inflation pushes the Fed hawkish, risk assets would face pressure. As for fundamentals, low inventories and strengthening spot premiums offer downside support, while high copper prices deter chasing. LME copper is expected to trade at $13,300–$13,800/mt, and SHFE copper is expected to trade at 102,800-105,500, moving sideways in a high range with a slightly softer center. Spot premiums are expected to persist; attention will focus on the sustainability of suppliers holding prices firm post-delivery and downstream restocking intensity.

SMM Analysis: Since Q4 2025, end-use demand in the copper foil industry has fully erupted, the industry has shown high prosperity, and processing fees for various specifications of copper foil have been steadily rising...