As of Thursday, June 25, social copper inventories in major regions of China increased by 11,700 mt WoW to 206,000 mt, while regional inventory trends diverged significantly. Copper price pullbacks have spurred a recovery in downstream purchasing demand, and coupled with ongoing adjustments in the market's supply-demand pattern, inventory performance varied across regions. By region, inventory trends in China's key copper consumption areas showed pronounced divergence. In Shanghai and Jiangsu, the two core markets, inventories pulled back in tandem, signaling a notable recovery in demand. Recently, domestic copper prices fell sharply, with lower prices effectively stimulating downstream enterprises' restocking willingness. In Shanghai, buoyed by favorable prices, downstream purchasing activity increased significantly, continuously drawing down spot inventories; meanwhile, combined with relatively low regional arrivals in the prior period, the market maintained a destocking pattern. Jiangsu's market situation was largely in line with Shanghai's—falling copper prices prompted end-users to concentrate on pricing and purchasing, with rigid-demand orders released intensively, effectively driving steady destocking of regional inventories and markedly improving spot market liquidity. In stark contrast to Shanghai and Jiangsu, inventories in Guangdong continued to climb, becoming the main drag on the national inventory increase. According to market analysis, as the year entered the mid-year phase, consumption by downstream copper semis enterprises in Guangdong gradually slowed, end-user order growth pulled back, and overall willingness to purchase remained weak. Meanwhile, domestic smelters accelerated their shipment pace, concentrating deliveries into Guangdong warehouses, driving a significant increase in regional arrivals. Under the dual impact of weakening downstream consumption and concentrated inflows of upstream supply, copper inventories in Guangdong continued to accumulate. Looking ahead, China's copper market will see structural adjustments on both supply and demand sides in the short term, with a destocking trend essentially in place. On the supply side, the domestic copper cathode market has recently seen somewhat looser supply, with port arrivals of imported cathode steadily rising. Meanwhile, domestic smelters have maintained steady production and shipment pace, with domestic supply arrivals continuing to increase, resulting in ample overall spot supply. The outlook for demand improvement is more definitive. After this round of sharp copper price declines, downstream enterprises' cost pressure has eased significantly. Coupled with previously accumulated orders on hand awaiting execution, market stockpiling sentiment continues to recover, and end-user restocking demand for rigid needs is set to be released intensively, continuously consuming spot cargo circulating in the market. Overall, the current domestic copper spot market is characterized by a favorable pattern of "ample supply and recovering demand," with downstream restocking momentum sufficient to offset pressure from short-term new supply. SMM expects that next week, national copper social inventories will shift to a destocking pace, and overall inventories are likely to pull back steadily. Going forward, the market should closely monitor the magnitude of copper price fluctuations, the sustainability of downstream purchasing intensity, and the pace of imported supply arrivals.

SMM Morning Briefing: Overnight, LME copper opened at $13,341/mt. In early trading, it drifted higher to touch a high of $13,379/mt. Then the center of copper prices drifted lower to touch a low of $13,252.5/mt. Afterwards, it drifted higher again and eventually closed at $13,344.5/mt, up 0.17%. Trading volume reached 14,200 lots, and open interest stood at 246,000 lots, down 256 lots from the previous trading day, which reflected bears reducing positions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2608 contract opened at 102,710 yuan/mt. In early trading, it quickly rose to a high of 102,850 yuan/mt. Then the price center drifted lower to touch a low of 102,100 yuan/mt. Afterwards, it drifted higher and finally ended at 102,340 yuan/mt, down 0.79%. Trading volume was 31,000 lots, and open interest stood at 152,000 lots, down 1,906 lots from the previous trading day, which reflected bulls reducing positions.

SMM, June 29: As of Monday, June 29, copper inventories across major Chinese regions edged down 0.07 mt WoW from last Monday and increased 1,400 mt from last Thursday, bringing total inventories to 207,400 mt. Total inventories rose 81,300 mt compared to 126,100 mt in the same period last year, with mixed regional performances. In detail, Shanghai saw higher port arrivals of imported copper, but the pullback in copper prices spurred downstream procurement, and faster warehouse withdrawals led to a slight inventory decline. Jiangsu's end-use consumption recovered concurrently, sustaining inventory destocking. Guangdong, meanwhile, showed weak consumption and concentrated arrivals, resulting in a notable regional inventory buildup. Market outlook: In the near term, arrivals of imported and domestic copper are expected to increase, keeping overall spot supply ample. After copper prices consolidated higher, downstream wait-and-see sentiment re-emerged. Our survey indicates that the operating rate of copper cathode rod producers is expected to rise to 67.77% this week, up 2.37 percentage points WoW. Based on the combined supply-demand picture—ample supply and cautious demand—China's social inventory of copper cathode is expected to edge up next week.

【SMM Copper Inventory Flash】National mainstream copper cathode inventories recorded 207,400 mt, up 1,400 mt WoW from last Thursday, with regional trends diverging. Shanghai and Jiangsu continued destocking, supported by a pullback in copper prices and recovering downstream demand; in Guangdong, weak end-use demand, combined with a notable increase in arrivals, led to a sharp inventory buildup.

【SMM Copper Inventory Alert】Copper cathode inventories in mainstream regions across China accumulated slightly MoM. In the Shanghai market, the pullback in copper prices boosted downstream purchasing, causing inventories to shift from an increase to a decrease; in Jiangsu, the pullback in copper prices drove a recovery in end-use demand, and inventories declined in tandem; in Guangdong, mid-year downstream consumption slowed down, and smelters increased shipments into warehouses, resulting in a continued inventory buildup in the region.

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight, LME copper opened at $13,231.5/mt, edged up to $13,308/mt in early trading, then drifted lower to touch a low of $13,190/mt, and finally closed at a high of $13,316/mt, up 2.22%. Trading volume was 26,000 lots, and open interest was 248,000 lots, up 306 lots from the previous trading day, indicating that bulls added positions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2608 contract opened at 102,180 yuan/mt, edged up to 102,600 yuan/mt, then drifted lower to touch a low of 101,640 yuan/mt, and closed at 102,260 yuan/mt, up 1.03%. Trading volume was 55,000 lots, and open interest was 162,000 lots, down 2,799 lots from the previous session, indicating that bears reduced positions. On the macro front, US PCE data largely met expectations, and the US dollar index halted its three-day rally. Geopolitically, another vessel attack occurred in the Strait of Hormuz; Iran warned that unauthorized transits are "unacceptable," and Israel denied withdrawing troops from southern Lebanon, which heightened Middle East tensions again and pushed geopolitical risk premiums higher. These factors eased rate hike concerns, and the US dollar stopped rising and pulled back, helping copper prices stabilize and rebound.

SMM News on June 25: Data Summary: As of Thursday, June 25, SMM copper inventories in major Chinese regions increased by 11,700 mt WoW to 206,000 mt, with total inventories up 75,900 mt YoY from 130,100 mt. In detail, in Shanghai, falling copper prices boosted downstream procurement, turning inventory from an increase to a decline; in Jiangsu, as prices pulled back, end-use demand improved and inventory also declined; in Guangdong, downstream consumption slowed mid-year, while smelters rushed to ship goods and deliveries to warehouses increased, causing inventory to continue rising. Looking ahead, on the supply side, arrivals of imported and domestic copper cathode are expected to increase in the short term; on the demand side, after a sharp decline in copper prices, downstream factories concentrated on settling prices and stockpiling. Currently, spot market supply is ample and purchasing sentiment is recovering, and next week, national copper social inventories are expected to maintain their destocking pace.

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight LME copper opened at $13,720/mt, hitting the intraday high of $13,740.5/mt right at the open, then fluctuated downward to a low of $13,633.2/mt before finally settling at $13,587/mt, up 0.62%. Trading volume reached 16,000 lots, and open interest stood at 252,000 lots, down 969 lots from the previous trading day, as bulls reduced positions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2607 contract opened at 104,990 yuan/mt, edged up to 105,170 yuan/mt in early trading, then fluctuated downward to a low of 104,470 yuan/mt, and finally settled at 104,990 yuan/mt, down 0.24%. Trading volume reached 14,000 lots, and open interest stood at 104,000 lots, down 2,268 lots from the previous trading day, as bulls reduced positions.

SMM June 22 News: Data Highlights: As of Monday, June 22, SMM copper inventories in major regions across China increased WoW, with total inventories reaching 208,100 mt, up by 78,500 mt from 129,600 mt in the same period last year. All regions saw inventory buildup. Specifically, in Shanghai, concentrated arrivals of imported and domestic copper, combined with persistently weak end-use consumption, led to a notable increase in inventories. In Jiangsu, arrivals increased as smelter maintenance ended, leading to a rise in inventories. In Guangdong, production cuts at processing enterprises during the Dragon Boat Festival holiday and weakening downstream demand were the main reasons for the significant inventory accumulation. Market Outlook: On the supply side, imported copper arrivals are expected to remain stable in the near term, while domestic copper supply is beginning to rise, gradually easing availability in the market. On the demand side, copper prices are fluctuating at highs, and the wait-and-see sentiment among downstream enterprises is intensifying. Surveys indicate that the operating rate of copper cathode rod plants is expected to increase to 65.4% this week, down 2.96 ppt WoW. Considering overall supply-demand performance, the market currently has ample supply but weak end-user purchasing willingness, so China's social copper inventories are expected to continue building next week.

[SMM Shanghai spot copper] During the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, copper cathode inventories in east China increased by over 10 kt. Although copper prices fell intraday, buying activity was not strong, and Shanghai spot copper premiums declined from the previous trading day. Currently, arrivals in east China are mainly from domestic smelters, including some shipments from smelters that were previously under maintenance and have resumed normal deliveries.