SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight LME copper opened at $14,208/mt, touched a high of $14,218/mt in early fluctuations, then drifted lower all the way to $14,142/mt near the end of the session, and finally closed at $14,153/mt, up 0.23%. Trading volume was 15,700 lots, and open interest stood at 261,000 lots, an increase of 2,675 lots from the previous trading day, indicating an increase in bearish positions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2609 contract opened at 108,200 yuan/mt, with the price center moving up to touch 108,320 yuan/mt in early trading, then drifting lower to a low of 107,900 yuan/mt, before closing at 108,000 yuan/mt, up 0.04%. Trading volume reached 21,000 lots, and open interest was 213,000 lots, a decrease of 1,714 lots from the previous trading day, indicating a decrease in bearish positions.

[SMM Shanghai spot copper] Looking ahead to tomorrow, as delivery approaches, the inter-month backwardation has further widened to above 300-400 yuan/mt. The cost of contract rollover rises accordingly for suppliers, and their willingness to sell spot copper increases, significantly capping premiums against the front-month contract. Today, sentiment in sales and procurement improved somewhat from yesterday, but as the SHFE copper price center rose above 108,000 yuan/mt, downstream users still mainly made just-in-time procurement, showing limited acceptance of high-priced offers. Meanwhile, some standard-quality copper has fallen to a discount of 10 yuan/mt to near parity, discounts for non-registered copper have widened further, and low-priced sources continue to weigh on mainstream standard-quality copper quotes. Overall, driven by the widening backwardation spread, increased willingness to sell among suppliers near delivery, and high copper prices suppressing consumption, the price center of Shanghai spot copper quotes against the 2608 contract is expected to continue to shift lower tomorrow, possibly showing a discount.

In accordance with the Measures for the Administration of Delivery Warehouses of Shanghai Futures Exchange and other relevant regulations, it is hereby decided that: 1. Approve the reduction of the approved storage capacity of copper futures at the storage location of Minmetals Wuxi Logistics Park Co., Ltd. at No. 1 Tangang Road, Huishan District, Wuxi City, Jiangsu Province, from 20,000 mt to 15,000 mt; the approved storage capacity of tin futures from 2,000 mt to 1,000 mt; and the approved storage capacity of stainless steel futures from 70,000 mt to 60,000 mt. 2. Approve the storage location of Minmetals Wuxi Logistics Park Co., Ltd. at No. 8 Xinsha Road, Machong Town, Dongguan City, Guangdong Province, to become a delivery warehouse storage location for copper futures, with an approved storage capacity of 5,000 mt and no regional premium. All relevant entities shall attach great importance and effectively carry out all tasks to ensure the normal and orderly progress of delivery operations. Hereby announce. Shanghai Futures Exchange August 10, 2026

SMM Morning Brief: Overnight, LME copper opened at $13,992/mt, dipped to $13,975.5/mt in early trading, then drifted higher to hit a high of $14,150/mt, before eventually settling at $14,148.5/mt, up 0.75%. Trading volume stood at 20,200 lots, and open interest increased to 253,000 lots, up 1,896 lots from the previous trading day, as bulls added positions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2609 contract opened at 107,350 yuan/mt, with an intraday high of 107,840 yuan/mt and a low of 107,300 yuan/mt, and settled at 107,770 yuan/mt, up 0.40%. Trading volume was 38,600 lots, while open interest fell to 214,000 lots, down 2,688 lots from the previous trading day, as bears reduced positions.

SMM, August 5 At 11:30, the copper futures closing price was 107,230 yuan/mt, up 410 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average spot premium was 180 yuan/mt, down 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Today, the secondary copper raw material price rose 400 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The sentiment index for secondary copper raw material sales rose to 2.68, and the purchasing sentiment index rose to 2.00. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 4,077 yuan/mt, down 92 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 1,760 yuan/mt. According to SMM survey, copper prices strengthened, boosting suppliers' willingness to sell secondary copper raw materials. In addition, active orders from terminal wire and cable companies and faster cargo pick-up by traders led to ample orders for secondary copper rod enterprises, which urgently needed to purchase raw materials from the market to replenish inventories. As a result, the secondary copper raw material market saw relatively active trading during the day.

Mining operators across Zambia are formalizing their policy demands ahead of the upcoming national elections, calling on the government to strengthen incentives for local mineral processing, greenfield exploration, and power generation expansion. Industry leaders emphasize that these measures are vital to achieving the national benchmark of tripling annual copper output to 3 million tonnes. This push coincides with a tight physical market, where surging demand for critical metals in electric vehicles, power networks, and construction has driven benchmark copper futures up over 40% in the past year to $14,000 per tonne. Fiscal stabilization and closer engagement with miners have already drawn over $10 billion in committed investment to Zambia since the 2021 election. However, expanding long-term output hinges on resolving critical infrastructure bottlenecks. According to the Zambia Chamber of Mines, maintaining a robust exploration pipeline via greenfield spending and licensing reforms is essential to secure real industry growth. Meanwhile, unintegrated producers continue to advocate for export duty relief on copper concentrates. Industry executives estimate that Zambia needs at least 2,000 megawatts of additional generation capacity to prevent severe power shortages from capping planned mine expansions. Because mining remains the country's economic backbone, contributing 9% of GDP, 72% of export earnings, and nearly half of government revenue, analysts expect general policy continuity for foreign direct investment following the polls.

SMM Aug 5: Overnight, LME copper opened at $14,012/mt, dipped to $13,871.5/mt before rebounding to a high of $14,117/mt, and finally closed at $14,043.5/mt, up 1.41%. Trading volume was 30,300 lots, while open interest rose to 251,000 lots, up 2,793 lots from the previous session, reflecting increased long positions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2609 contract opened at 107,490 yuan/mt, hit a session high of 107,500 yuan/mt and a low of 106,900 yuan/mt, and closed at 107,040 yuan/mt, up 0.37%. Trading volume stood at 46,500 lots, and open interest increased to 211,100 lots, up 1,601 lots from the previous session, reflecting increased long positions. On the macro front, US Treasury Secretary Bessent said the US and Iran could reach an agreement on Wednesday Eastern Time, with the Strait of Hormuz expected to reopen soon. Iran's talks with Oman also made positive progress, and Iran is reportedly considering allowing Europe to participate in mine-clearing in the strait. As a result, international oil prices pulled back sharply, dampening market expectations for multiple US Fed rate hikes this year and thus lifting copper prices. However, cargo ships continued to be attacked in the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz, and geopolitical risks have yet to fully subside. On the fundamentals side, supply tightness has further eased as arrivals of both domestic and imported copper cathode have picked up recently. Demand side, under the traditional consumption off-season, end-user orders remained weak. Coupled with high copper prices, end-users continued to restock mainly on a need-to basis. Overall, copper prices are expected to consolidate higher today.

SMM, August 4: Overnight, LME copper opened at $13,866/mt, rose to a high of $13,884/mt in early trading before pulling back, hit a low of $13,808/mt, and rebounded towards the close to settle at $13,848/mt, up 0.33%. Trading volume was 16,900 lots, and open interest fell to 248,000 lots, down 2,157 lots from the previous session, as bears reduced positions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2609 contract opened at 105,750 yuan/mt, hit an intraday high of 106,220 yuan/mt, a low of 105,610 yuan/mt, and settled at 106,190 yuan/mt, up 0.07%. Trading volume was 26,800 lots, and open interest fell to 202,100 lots, down 3,851 lots from the previous session, with bears reducing positions. On the macro front, US Fed’s Williams expressed optimism about gradually easing inflation, soothing market concerns over persistently high interest rates. On the geopolitical front, Trump said US-Iran negotiations are ongoing and the Strait of Hormuz may reopen on Tuesday, but Iran rejected the latest US proposal, leaving the progress of talks and the reopening timeline uncertain. On the fundamentals side, supply side, arrivals of domestic copper and imported copper cathode recently edged up, slightly easing the tightness in market supply. Demand side, high copper prices continued to weigh on production and purchase willingness among downstream enterprises, and with the traditional consumption off-season, downstream players mainly restocked on rigid demand, with overall purchase sentiment remaining weak. As of Monday, August 3, SMM copper inventories in major Chinese regions rose by 6,200 mt WoW to 118,900 mt. Total inventory was up 17,000 mt compared to the same period last year, when it stood at 135,900 mt, with performance varying across regions. Overall, copper prices are expected to consolidate and edge up today.

SHFE Issues Announcement on Approving the Waiver of Copper Futures Delivery Warehouse Qualification by Shanghai Yangshan Free Trade Port Zone C.Steinweg Logistics Co., Ltd. The original text is as follows: Announcement on Approving the Waiver of Copper Futures Delivery Warehouse Qualification by Shanghai Yangshan Free Trade Port Zone C.Steinweg Logistics Co., Ltd. Recently, our exchange received relevant application materials from Shanghai Yangshan Free Trade Port Zone C.Steinweg Logistics Co., Ltd. In accordance with the Shanghai Futures Exchange Delivery Warehouse Management Rules and other relevant regulations, upon deliberation, we have decided as follows: 1. Approval is given for Shanghai Yangshan Free Trade Port Zone C.Steinweg Logistics Co., Ltd. to waive its qualification as a copper futures delivery warehouse. The cancelled storage address is: No. 288 Haiwang Road, Pudong New Area (Yangshan Special Comprehensive Bonded Zone), Shanghai, with a nominated storage capacity of 10 kt of copper. 2. From the date of this announcement, Shanghai Yangshan Free Trade Port Zone C.Steinweg Logistics Co., Ltd. shall cease all business operations related to the copper futures delivery warehouse of our exchange. All relevant entities shall attach great importance to this, effectively carry out all tasks, and ensure the normal and orderly conduct of delivery operations. It is hereby announced. Shanghai Futures Exchange Aug 2026

This week (July 13-16), the copper scrap market operated under a triple framework of copper prices retreating after rapid rises, ongoing reverse-invoicing compliance constraints, and deepening high-temperature off-season. The most-traded SHFE copper contract surged to 105,020 yuan/mt mid-week, up nearly 2,000 yuan/mt from the start of the week. However, copper scrap prices were supported by compliance costs and suppliers holding prices firm, so the weekly price fluctuation was less than 1,000 yuan/mt. The price spread between primary metal and scrap widened from 2,445 yuan/mt at the start of the week to 3,923 yuan/mt, up more than 2,200 yuan/mt from the previous weekend. The widening spread was entirely driven by the unilateral rise in copper cathode. The resistance of copper scrap to decline was a key supply-side feature this week, which directly spurred hedging-related purchase demand from secondary copper rod enterprises. The supply side continued the structurally tight pattern seen since 2026. The first underlying constraint was reverse-invoicing compliance requirements: aftershocks from compliance inspections in Jiangxi and Hubei in south China persisted, and invoice quotas remained restricted in Shuyang, Jiangsu, leaving available compliant and deductible copper scrap persistently tight. The second was that after Document 770 eliminated irregular local tax rebates at the end of 2025, small and medium-sized copper scrap traders that previously relied on subsidies were continuously exiting the market, and overall available supply contracted markedly compared with the same period in previous years. Additionally, suppliers generally held a psychological defense of not selling cheap before copper prices break below 100,000 yuan/mt, and the selling pace throughout the week closely followed copper price fluctuations. At the start of the week when copper prices pulled back, strong hold-back sentiment prevailed, and tight supply left secondary copper rod enterprises struggling to find low-priced material. In mid-week when copper prices surged above 105,000 yuan/mt, suppliers’ willingness to sell at fixed prices increased, but because downstream scrap-using sectors had weak orders in the off-season and low acceptance of high prices, sales did not occur in large volumes. Most material was purchased by secondary copper rod enterprises using a hedging logic of buying raw material and shorting futures, not for actual production restocking. Many rod enterprises stopped pricing directly after purchasing enough to meet daily demand in the morning session and did not chase higher prices to buy. At the end of the week copper prices consolidated and pulled back, suppliers switched back to hold-back mode, and supply tightened again. Regional divergence persisted. In south China, due to compliance costs and slow capital turnover, bare bright copper purchase prices were 400-600 yuan/mt lower than in the north, maintaining the unusual structure of different prices for the same material. Traders maintained a low-inventory strategy of quick turnover, not daring to stockpile and bet on rising prices. The issue of payment collection cycles extending beyond two weeks remained unresolved, further limiting the release of supply elasticity. The demand side remained overall weak, with secondary copper rod enterprises reporting scarce new orders throughout the week. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod surged to 1,510 yuan/mt mid-week, touching the critical line of economic viability, but lacked sustainability and pulled back to 950 yuan/mt by the week's end. Meanwhile, secondary copper rods remained at a premium to copper futures due to rigid raw material costs. New orders at terminal wire and cable enterprises were weak, and they still held wait-and-see expectations that "copper prices have further downside room," with procurement mainly driven by rigid demand in pulses. Throughout the week, copper scrap transactions were largely driven by copper price fluctuations and hedging demand, while restocking volume for actual production was minimal. After copper prices pulled back at the week's end, rod enterprises' purchase willingness weakened further. The market displayed a weak equilibrium where "when copper prices rise, suppliers sell and rod enterprises collect for hedging; when copper prices fall, suppliers hold back and rod enterprises wait for lower prices." Currently, the market remains constrained by the dual restrictions of compliant invoices and off-season demand. Going forward, if the price difference between primary metal and scrap stabilizes above 1,500 yuan/mt and the implementation rules for reverse invoicing become clearer, this may trigger the release of some rigid demand; otherwise, the weak transaction pattern will persist.