SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight, LME copper opened at $12,724.5/mt. In early trading, it fluctuated upward to a high of $12,829.5/mt, after which the center of copper prices shifted straight downward to a low of $12,721/mt. It then fluctuated upward in a pullback and finally closed at $12,780/mt, down 1.07%. Trading volume reached 17,000 lots, and open interest stood at 293,000 lots, down 8,255 lots from the previous trading day, mainly due to longs reducing positions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2604 contract opened at 99,120 yuan/mt. In early trading, it rose to 99,530 yuan/mt, then fluctuated downward all the way to a low of 98,900 yuan/mt. Afterwards, the center of copper prices moved upward and finally closed at 99,140 yuan/mt, down 0.92%. Trading volume reached 27,700 lots, and open interest stood at 177,000 lots, down 1,993 lots from the previous trading day, mainly due to longs reducing positions.

Spot #1 copper cathode prices in North China were quoted at an average discount of 60 yuan/mt against the front-month contract today, unchanged from the previous trading day. The average transaction price was 99,020 yuan/mt, down 1,240 yuan/mt from the previous trading day.

[Shanghai Spot Copper] Intraday trading in the spot market improved somewhat from yesterday. Suppliers still showed willingness to hold prices firm, but some suppliers’ sell-offs temporarily weighed on the market, causing spot premiums to decline somewhat in the second trading session. Coupled with the narrowing Contango price spread between nearby futures contracts, suppliers’ willingness to ship to delivery warehouses weakened somewhat, and spot premiums remained under pressure. Demand side, as copper prices fell, downstream enterprises may have had some restocking demand, but the current copper prices had limited actual appeal. Supply side, social inventory remained at a high level, but spot cargo available for actual circulation was relatively tight. Some warrants were already seen flowing out during the day, which may ease some pressure on spot supply. Meanwhile, the import window remained open, and expectations for subsequent inflows of cargo from outside China increased. Overall, amid the tug-of-war between sellers and buyers, Shanghai spot copper is expected to maintain the current discount structure overall tomorrow.

[SMM Tungsten Daily Review: Strong Wait-and-See Sentiment as the Tungsten Market Awaited Stabilization in Transactions] SMM News, March 18 Tungsten market prices were largely stable today, with only minor fluctuations, and the market showed strong wait-and-see sentiment. Trading volume in segments such as tungsten ore and APT was sparse, with transaction prices mostly hovering around the quoted price range. Transactions for downstream products such as powder were also limited, and transaction prices showed a slight downward trend.

News dated March 18, 2026: Today, the average warrant price was unchanged from the previous trading day, closing at $47/mt (price range: $42-52/mt); the average B/L price was unchanged from the previous trading day, closing at $46/mt (price range: $41-51/mt); the average EQ copper (CIF B/L) price was unchanged from the previous trading day, closing at $25/mt (price range: $19-31/mt), with quotations referenced to cargoes arriving from late March to mid-April. Intraday, the SHFE/LME price ratio premium showed no significant fluctuations, and market transactions remained active. It was heard that a small volume of pyrometallurgy B/L arriving in late March was quoted at $50-60/mt, QP April; EQ B/L for late March and early April was offered at $35, and EQ B/L arriving in mid-to-late April was quoted at $35/mt, QP May. Ordinary ER copper warrants for delivery within this week were quoted at $50/mt, QP April.

[China Iron Ore Brief Comment: Iron Ore Concentrates Prices in Tangshan Might Have Some Room to Move Higher] Iron ore concentrates prices in Tangshan were relatively stable today, with the ex-factory prices of 66-grade dry-basis iron ore concentrates including tax at 970-980 yuan/mt. The intensity of environmental protection inspections weakened, and steel mills as well as ore beneficiation gradually resumed production, but producers turned cautious in their operations, market inquiries were not active, and beneficiation plants considered costs as well as inventory

SMM, March 18: The SHFE aluminum 04 contract moved lower today. Affected by the decline in aluminum prices, overall purchase sentiment rose today. Sellers held prices firm, with mainstream quotations and transaction prices in the market mostly ranging from the average price to +10 yuan/mt. Today, the east China market shipment sentiment index was 3.17, up 0.05 MoM; the buying sentiment index was 3.03, up 0.33 MoM. Today, SHFE aluminum futures prices pulled back, and buying sentiment in the central China market surged. Bullish sentiment in the market was strong, and willingness to buy the dip was significant. Meanwhile, suppliers tended to hold back from selling and turned to purchasing at lower prices to profit from the price spread. Only some trading firms engaging in both spot and futures market took profits on premiums and shipped goods, while the overall reluctance to sell was evident. Market quotations ranged from parity with the central China price to a premium of 60 yuan, but final actual transactions were mainly concentrated at premiums of 30-40 yuan over the central China price. Today, the central China market shipment sentiment index was 2.59, down 0.01 MoM; the buying sentiment index was 2.42, up 0.04 MoM. Inventory side, aluminum ingot inventory in major consumption regions increased 8,500 mt MoM today, with the inventory buildup mainly coming from Guangdong. In the short term, aluminum ingot inventory continued its seasonal buildup after the Chinese New Year. Affected by bullish market sentiment, premiums were expected to remain on a narrowing trend.

Today, the most-traded BC copper 2604 contract opened at 88,450 yuan/mt. After the opening, it hovered at highs and then climbed to 88,940 yuan/mt, before its center moved all the way downward and fell to 87,730 yuan/mt near the close. It finally settled at 87,780 yuan/mt, down 0.37%. Open interest stood at 5,599 lots, down 113 lots from the previous trading day, and trading volume was 3,458 lots, down 1,917 lots from the previous trading day. On the macro front, Israel launched large-scale attacks in Tehran, Iran and Beirut, Lebanon, while a tanker anchored in the Gulf of Oman was hit by an unidentified projectile. Oil prices rose, intensifying market concerns over US inflation and weighing on copper prices. Fundamentally, arrivals of both imported and domestic cargoes remained stable, and overall supply was ample. Demand side, the slight increase in copper prices somewhat suppressed downstream purchase willingness, with buying maintained at just-in-time procurement levels. The SHFE copper 2604 contract closed at 99,340 yuan/mt. Based on the BC copper 2604 contract price of 87,780 yuan/mt, its tax-inclusive price was 99,191 yuan/mt. The price spread between the SHFE copper 2604 contract and BC copper was 149 yuan/mt, and the spread remained in a contango structure, narrowing from the previous day.

SMM News, March 12: Today in Guangdong, spot #1 copper cathode against the front-month contract was quoted at a premium of 30 yuan/mt for high-quality copper, down 20 yuan/mt from yesterday; standard-quality copper was quoted at a discount of 80 yuan/mt, down 70 yuan/mt from yesterday; and SX-EW copper was quoted at a discount of 140 yuan/mt, down 55 yuan/mt from yesterday. The average price of #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was 100,255 yuan/mt, up 1,300 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while the average price of SX-EW copper was 100,140 yuan/mt, up 1,290 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot market: After Guangdong inventory rose slightly for only one day yesterday, it declined again today, mainly due to fewer arrivals and increased warehouse withdrawals. As inventory fell, suppliers took the opportunity to hold prices firm and make shipments, but downstream processing enterprises showed only average restocking sentiment today. On the one hand, copper prices posted a relatively large gain; on the other hand, premiums also rose sharply. However, traders' purchase willingness increased from yesterday, and overall trading sentiment improved after the contract rollover. Today, purchasing sentiment for copper cathode in Guangdong was 2.43, up 0.11 from the previous trading day, while shipment sentiment was 3.26, up 0.25 from the previous trading day (historical data is available in the database). Overall, market trading sentiment improved after the contract rollover. Attention should be paid to inventory changes tomorrow. If destocking continues, premiums are expected to keep rising.

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Intraday trading in the spot market was subdued, while suppliers still showed willingness to hold prices firm. Downstream wait-and-see sentiment remained relatively strong, and spot premiums edged down slightly from yesterday. As the contango price spread between nearby contracts narrowed, suppliers' willingness to ship to delivery warehouses weakened somewhat, putting pressure on spot premiums. On the demand side, downstream buyers maintained just-in-time procurement, and transactions remained sluggish even after suppliers slightly lowered their quotations, as current copper prices had limited appeal to end-users. On the supply side, domestic copper and imported cargoes previously locked in at fixed prices continued to arrive, while social inventory remained at a high level. The outflow of warrants over the next two days may further weigh on spot premiums. Meanwhile, signs that the import window may still open persisted, and expectations for subsequent inflows of ex-China cargoes strengthened, further increasing supply-side pressure. Overall, amid a pattern of weak supply and demand, Shanghai spot copper premiums are expected to remain under pressure tomorrow, with a possibility of a slight widening.