SMM Morning Brief: Last Friday night, LME copper opened at $13,490/mt, dipped slightly to $13,453.1/mt in early trading, then drifted higher to touch a high of $13,520/mt, and finally closed at $13,484.5/mt, up 0.03%. Trading volume reached 14,000 lots, and open interest stood at 248,000 lots, an increase of 762 lots from the previous trading day, reflecting an increase in long positions. Last Friday, the most-traded SHFE copper 2608 contract opened at 103,540 yuan/mt, rose slightly to 103,960 yuan/mt in early trading, then drifted lower to hit a low of 103,400 yuan/mt, and finally closed at 103,790 yuan/mt, up 0.08%. Trading volume reached 22,000 lots, and open interest stood at 147,000 lots, a decrease of 1,953 lots from the previous trading day, reflecting a decrease in short positions.

In H1 2026, the secondary copper rod market completely broke away from the traditional "copper price–supply and demand" pricing framework. It was primarily hit by the twin policy shocks of "reverse invoicing" moving from transitional review to full implementation and the clearance of local non-compliant fiscal and tax incentives and subsidies (Document No. 770)

SMM July 8 At 11:30 today, the futures closing price was 103,040 yuan/mt, up 60 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average spot premiums stood at 135 yuan/mt, up 25 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Today, copper scrap prices remained unchanged from the previous trading day. The sales sentiment index for copper scrap rose to 2.31, while the purchasing sentiment index rose to 2.39. The price spread between copper cathode and copper scrap was 1,778 yuan/mt, up 85 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The price spread between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 720 yuan/mt. According to SMM survey, copper prices only edged up during the day. Although the price spread between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod widened slightly, it remained below the favorable line. Secondary copper rod enterprises also indicated that no customers had placed orders in recent days, and new orders were insufficient. Their purchasing attitude towards copper scrap was to buy on dips and pick up bargains.

[SMM Analysis: H1 2026 Overseas Copper Scrap Market Review: Firm Payability and Persistent Supply Tightness] The tightening supply of copper pushed companies to look beyond mine supply for supplementary sources, with the importance of copper scrap rising significantly. More importantly, the structural tightness in copper has begun to reshape the pricing logic of the copper scrap market.

SMM Morning Meeting Minutes: Overnight, LME copper opened at $13,393/mt. In early trading, the price center rose, hitting a high of $13,452/mt, then drifted lower, and near the end of the session hit a low of $13,323/mt, finally closing at $13,334.5/mt, down 0.57%. Trading volume was 10,600 lots, and open interest stood at 247,000 lots, down 2,082 lots from the previous trading day, reflecting a reduction in long positions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2608 contract opened at 103,080 yuan/mt. In early trading, the price center climbed to a high of 103,500 yuan/mt, then drifted lower, and near the end of the session hit a low of 102,880 yuan/mt, finally closing at 103,100 yuan/mt, up 0.14%. Trading volume was 24,400 lots, and open interest stood at 148,000 lots, down 854 lots from the previous trading day, reflecting a reduction in short positions.

[SMM Analysis: Ex-China Copper Scrap Market Review in H1 2026: Copper Prices Surge, Tight Raw Material Supply Supports Firm Discounts] In Q1 2026, copper prices overall stayed high, mostly consolidating around $13,000/mt. Only around the end of Q1 did copper prices experience a temporary pullback, but they resumed their upward trend upon entering Q2 and repeatedly hit new all-time highs. Behind this, copper prices were supported on the one hand by tight copper ore supply; on the other, the siphoning effect on global copper resources triggered by US tariff expectations further amplified market concerns over the supply side. Meanwhile, the rapid growth of new copper-consuming sectors—such as NEVs, new energy power, power grid construction, and data centers—continued to fuel market expectations for copper demand. Against the backdrop of supply growth failing to match demand growth, copper prices found strong support. The tightness in copper units supply also prompted enterprises to shift their focus from the ore side to supplementary sources beyond ore, with copper scrap seeing a notable increase in importance. As copper prices continued to surge, copper scrap prices rose in tandem, and the structural changes driven by copper resource scarcity also started to shift the pricing logic of the copper scrap market, which was previously dominated by consumption and price spreads.

SMM July 3 At 11:30 today, the futures closing price was 103,070 yuan/mt, up 890 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average spot premium was 60 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Today, copper scrap prices rose 100 yuan/mt MoM. The sales sentiment index for copper scrap rose to 2.41, and the procurement sentiment index dropped to 2.40. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 1,957 yuan/mt, up 788 yuan/mt MoM. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 520 yuan/mt. According to SMM survey, copper prices rebounded by the end of the week, and the price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap widened again to 1,900 yuan/mt. Holders of copper scrap showed a strong willingness to sell, while secondary copper rod enterprises exhibited weak restocking sentiment. This week, due to continuous premiums of secondary copper rod against copper futures, transactions were minimal. The increase in finished product inventories dampened secondary copper rod enterprises' willingness to restock raw materials.

SMM July 2 At 11:30 today, the futures closing price was 102,180 yuan/mt, up 160 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average spot premium was 50 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The copper scrap price rose by 200 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The copper scrap selling sentiment index dropped to 2.32, and the buying sentiment index dropped to 2.45. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 1,169 yuan/mt, down 53 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 130 yuan/mt. According to the SMM survey, on the second day of the implementation of the "reverse invoicing" rule, the copper scrap market showed no significant changes. With tight supply, the copper scrap price struggled to widen its spread against copper cathode. Many secondary copper rod enterprises continued to make just-in-time procurement.

SMM Morning Call Summary: Overnight, LME copper opened at $13,120/mt, dipped to a low of $13,103.5/mt in early trading, then the price center drifted higher to touch $13,364/mt, after which it swung wildly and finally closed at $13,330.5/mt, down 0.37%, with trading volume at 23,000 lots and open interest at 242,000 lots, a decrease of 3,122 lots from the previous trading day, indicating long position reduction. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2608 contract opened at 101,830 yuan/mt, dipped to 101,640 yuan/mt in early trading, then the price center moved sharply higher to touch 102,930 yuan/mt, after which it swung wildly and finally closed at 102,520 yuan/mt, up 0.07%, with trading volume at 50,000 lots and open interest at 154,000 lots, a decrease of 286 lots from the previous trading day, indicating short position reduction.

SMM July 1 At 11:30 today, the futures closing price was 102,020 yuan/mt, down 490 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average spot premiums were 40 yuan/mt, up 40 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Copper scrap prices fell 100 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The sales sentiment index for copper scrap dropped to 2.36, while the procurement sentiment index rose to 2.48. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 1,222 yuan/mt, down 338 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 160 yuan/mt. According to the SMM survey, entering the high-temperature off-season in July, secondary copper rod enterprises reported a decline in downstream orders. At the same time, copper prices continued to decline, and copper scrap traders held back from selling, leading to relatively high copper scrap prices. As a result, secondary copper rod prices were quoted at a premium of 200-300 yuan/mt over futures, with transactions remaining extremely sluggish.