According to the SMM survey, in July 2026, the operating rate of mainstream domestic wire and cable enterprises reached 69.82%, down 2.4 percentage points MoM and 2.79 percentage points YoY. Pressured by both copper prices consolidating at highs and the downstream entering the traditional consumption off-season, new orders weakened, leading to a pullback in production loads.

​​​​​​​Falling nickel benchmarks, a fragmented overseas supply base and a Malaysian enforcement crackdown lift India's stainless scrap imports 11.4% while pushing the average import price down 6.6% in the 12 months to February 2026

With the booming development of the new energy vehicle industry, China's first wave of power batteries has entered a large-scale retirement phase. Recently, lithium battery recycling projects have been intensively launched across multiple regions nationwide, covering every link of the industrial chain — from dismantling and crushing to hydrometallurgy, from cascade utilization to material regeneration.

With the vigorous development of the NEV industry, China's first batch of power batteries entered a large-scale "retirement period." Recently, lithium battery recycling projects were intensively launched nationwide, from dismantling and crushing to hydrometallurgy, from second-life application to material regeneration, comprehensively accelerating the layout of all links in the industry chain.

Recently, the ecological environment authority of Ji'an, Jiangxi, released the proposed approval for the EIA report of the annual 15,000-ton spent LFP battery expansion project. The project involves a total investment of RMB 30 million, located in Chengnan Industrial Park, Xiajiang Industrial Park, Ji'an. Using spent LFP battery cells as raw material, it adopts processes including cutting, primary crushing, drying pyrolysis, cooling, and screening to produce battery powder, copper, and aluminum. Upon completion, it will achieve an annual processing capacity of 15,000 tons of spent LFP battery cells, yielding 8,878.39 tons of LFP battery powder, 1,499.72 tons of copper foil, and 1,143.17 tons of aluminum foil.

Executive Summary Australia is a major supplier of feedstock to the Asia-Pacific zinc smelting system, but its supply structure is shifting from dominance by a small number of mature mines to a mix of mine closures, volatility at existing operations and ramp-ups at new projects. Glencore's Mount Isa zinc-lead business includes George Fisher and the nearby Lady Loretta mine, which reached the end of its mine life in late 2025. Meanwhile, Dugald River, McArthur River, Rosebery, Century, Cannington and Golden Grove remain the core of zinc concentrate supply from Australia, while newly commissioned or restarted projects such as Federation, Woodlawn and Endeavor have begun contributing incremental output. Zinc mine supply in Australia fell sharply in 2024 due to extreme weather, difficult underground mining conditions and changes in ore sequencing. It recovered in 2025 as McArthur River returned to normal and Dugald River delivered record production. In H1 2026, Glencore's operations in Australia produced 218 kt of zinc in concentrate, down 54 kt year on year, with roughly 51 kt of the reduction attributable to Lady Loretta's closure. Dugald River produced 87.2 kt of zinc in concentrate over the same period, indicating that the overall decline was driven primarily by the exit of a specific mature mine rather than by simultaneous cuts across all core operations. Supply from Australia should therefore be assessed on three horizons. In the short term, the focus is on wet-season disruptions to railways, ports and vessel schedules. Over the medium term, the key issues are the permanent loss of Lady Loretta, Century's approaching tailings-resource limit around 2027 and Cannington's lower operating rates, alongside the ramp-up of Federation, Woodlawn, Endeavor and the Gossan Valley mining front at Golden Grove. Changes in supply from Australia will affect arrivals in China and spot TCs, but the final assessment must also account for global net mine-supply growth and feedstock demand from smelters in China and overseas. I. Zinc Mine Supply in Australia: Mine Closures and New Capacity Ramp-Ups Australia's main zinc mines are located in Queensland, the Northern Territory, Tasmania, New South Wales and Western Australia. Major existing operations include Glencore's Mount Isa zinc-lead business and McArthur River, MMG's Dugald River and Rosebery, Sibanye-Stillwater's Century, South32's Cannington, and 29Metals' Golden Grove. Newly commissioned or restarted projects such as Federation, Woodlawn and Endeavor mean that supply from Australia is no longer determined solely by Mount Isa and Dugald River. The chart shows that Australia's zinc concentrate production has remained relatively high in recent years, although year-to-year volatility has been significant. In 2024, extreme weather at McArthur River and increasingly complex underground mining conditions at Cannington caused a marked decline in supply. McArthur River's recovery and higher production at Dugald River drove a rebound in 2025, before Lady Loretta's closure weighed on output again in 2026. Supply from Australia is therefore not static; it reflects the combined effects of recoveries, declines and additions across individual mines. Performance among existing assets has diverged markedly. Dugald River produced 183.5 kt of zinc in concentrate in 2025, up 12% year on year and a record annual result. MMG's Rosebery produced approximately 48.6 kt over the same period. Century's tailings reprocessing operation produced about 101 kt of payable zinc in concentrate in 2025, although the existing tailings project is approaching a mine-life milestone around 2027. Cannington produced approximately 44.5 kt of payable zinc in FY2025, with guidance of about 40 kt for FY2026 and 43 kt for FY2027, indicating a relatively stable but lower production profile. Lady Loretta's closure has created a confirmed supply loss. Glencore data show that zinc concentrate production in Australia fell 20% year on year in H1 2026, with most of the decline attributable to the mine reaching the end of its life in late 2025. Looking ahead to 2027–2030, supply from Australia will be shaped by offsets between losses and additions. Century faces the gradual depletion of its tailings resource, while Cannington is constrained by more complex underground mining conditions. On the upside, Federation continues to ramp up, Woodlawn has returned to stable production, the Gossan Valley mining front at Golden Grove is expected to deliver first ore in H2 2026, and Endeavor's restart will add supply. Australia's medium-term supply outlook is therefore not a one-way contraction, but rather a period in which retiring mines hand over to new sources of production. II. China's Imports from Australia: Monthly Volatility Does Not Necessarily Signal Mine-Supply Cuts The chart shows that China's imports of zinc concentrate from Australia are highly seasonal and sensitive to shipment schedules. A monthly decline may reflect lower mine output, but it may also result from rail disruptions, delayed port loading, ocean transit times, customs-clearance timing or changes in smelter procurement. A subsequent spike may simply represent delayed cargoes arriving in a later month. Import data should therefore be assessed against at least three sets of information: the gap between miners' production and sales, operating conditions on railways and at ports in northern Australia, and arrival patterns at China's major ports. The low readings in 2024 should not automatically be equated with a lasting production decline. Likewise, the 2026 trend should be assessed primarily on the basis of cumulative imports rather than exaggerated moves in individual months. III. Why Does the Wet Season Affect Zinc Concentrate Exports from Australia? The wet season in northern Australia typically runs from October to April, while the tropical cyclone season lasts from November to April. The 2025–2026 northern wet season was the seventh-wettest on record, with average rainfall of about 684 mm, 44% above the long-term average. Eleven tropical cyclones occurred in the region surrounding Australia during the season. Many zinc mines in Australia are located inland, requiring concentrate to be transported over long distances to port. For example, the Mount Isa mining complex relies on rail links to the Port of Townsville; McArthur River ships through the Bing Bong loading facility; and Century is connected by slurry pipeline to the Port of Karumba. Zinc concentrate from Australia is shipped not only to China but also to South Korea and other overseas smelters. Weather disruptions therefore first affect individual transport corridors before feeding through to the Asia-Pacific spot market. Heavy rainfall and flooding generally affect the market through the following chain: Flooding or cyclones → rail and road disruptions → delayed port loading and vessel schedules → inventory accumulation at mines → delayed and lower arrivals in China In Q1 2026, Dugald River still produced 41.1 kt of zinc concentrate despite flooding and rail disruptions. However, logistics constraints caused concentrate sales to fall short of production, leaving some inventory temporarily stockpiled at the mine. This shows that extreme weather often affects transportation and shipment timing rather than directly impairing mine capacity. Once rail and port operations resume, accumulated concentrate may be shipped in a concentrated wave, allowing China's imports to rebound. Flood impacts are therefore usually temporary and should not automatically be treated as a permanent loss of mine supply from Australia. IV. Why Do Changes in Supply from Australia Affect TCs? Zinc concentrate treatment charges (TCs) are fees paid by miners or concentrate sellers to smelters for processing. They essentially reflect the balance between concentrate supply and smelter demand over a given period. Changes in mine supply and logistics in Australia can alter regional spot-market tightness, but the direction of TCs is not determined by any single country. In general: Ample zinc concentrate supply gives smelters more feedstock options and generally pushes TCs higher; Tight zinc concentrate supply intensifies competition for feedstock and generally pushes TCs lower. Australia is an important source of zinc concentrate for the Asia-Pacific region and the global market. When shipments from Australia are delayed and arrivals in China decline while domestic smelters maintain strong feedstock demand, competition for spot concentrate may intensify and spot TCs may come under short-term pressure. If delayed cargoes subsequently arrive in a concentrated wave, or incremental supply from other regions becomes available in time, the impact may dissipate relatively quickly. At the global mine-supply level, the outlook for 2026 is not a one-way contraction. Kipushi in the Democratic Republic of the Congo produced 70.2 kt of contained zinc in concentrate in Q2, marking a seventh consecutive quarter-on-quarter increase. In Australia, Woodlawn returned to stable production, Federation continued to ramp up and Endeavor's restart added new supply. These gains are being offset by the closure of Lady Loretta, Antamina's shift to a copper-rich, zinc-poor ore sequence, feedstock-blending constraints at Kazzinc and the potential depletion of Century's tailings resource around 2027. Global mine supply is therefore increasingly characterised by simultaneous growth at new mines and declines at mature assets. TC assessments should therefore focus on whether annual net additions are sufficient to offset losses, as well as changes in smelter operating rates in China and overseas. In the short term, the key variables are rail and port conditions in Australia and arrivals in China. Over the medium term, additions from Kipushi, Woodlawn and Federation should be weighed against reductions at Lady Loretta, Antamina and Century. Only by assessing the global mine balance alongside smelter demand can the market determine whether pressure on TCs is temporary or structural. Conclusion Australia's zinc mine supply is moving through a handover between mature and emerging assets. Lady Loretta's closure represents a confirmed loss, while established operations such as Mount Isa's zinc-lead business and McArthur River are expected to focus on stable production. Dugald River remains resilient, and Rosebery, Century, Cannington and Golden Grove continue to underpin existing supply. Meanwhile, newly commissioned and restarted projects are beginning to add incremental tonnes. In the short term, the wet season and flooding mainly affect the timing of China's imports through disruptions to railways, ports and vessel schedules, rather than causing permanent capacity losses. Over the medium term, supply from Australia in 2027–2030 will depend on the balance between potential declines—such as the depletion of Century's resource and Cannington's lower operating rates—and growth from the ramp-up of Federation, Woodlawn, Endeavor and the Gossan Valley mining front at Golden Grove. For TCs, fluctuations in supply from Australia can affect the Asia-Pacific spot market but cannot by themselves determine the long-term global zinc concentrate balance. The market should track mine production and sales in Australia, logistics in northern Australia, China's cumulative imports, developments at overseas mines such as Kipushi, Antamina and Kazzinc, and smelter operating rates in China and overseas. Only if global net mine-supply growth remains insufficient while smelter demand stays high will supply losses in Australia translate into sustained downward pressure on TCs.

SMM reported on July 31: Spot quotes for cobalt-related products continued to decline this week. The spot market demand remained sluggish. Before any concentrated restocking by downstream enterprises, cobalt salt prices showed an overall slow downward trend... SMM compiled the price changes of cobalt-related products this week, as follows: : According to SMM spot quotes, the center of refined cobalt spot quotes continued to shift downward this week. Although it rose by 1,500 yuan/mt on the last trading day, as of July 31, refined cobalt spot quotes were at 338,000-355,000 yuan/mt, with an average of 346,500 yuan/mt, down 3,500 yuan/mt or 1% from 350,000 yuan/mt on July 24. From the supply-demand side, on the supply end, mainstream smelters lowered ex-factory quotes to 355,000 yuan/mt, while other small and medium smelters basically suspended external quotes due to increased loss pressures. After continued destocking in the trade sector, available-for-sale inventories dropped to relatively low levels. Some enterprises, based on bullish expectations for the future, began to slow down their shipment pace, and a few quoting enterprises maintained the spot-futures price spread at a premium of 1,000-10,000 yuan/mt. On the demand side, downstream enterprises were still in the summer break period, with generally weak purchase willingness, only maintaining small-scale rigid restocking. Overall, July-August is the traditional consumption off-season for refined cobalt, with limited demand support. In the short term, prices may continue to be in the doldrums. Cobalt Salt (and ): : According to SMM spot quotes, cobalt sulphate spot quotes continued to fall this week. As of July 31, spot quotes dropped to 81,000-82,000 yuan/mt, with an average of 81,500 yuan/mt, down 1,500 yuan/mt or 1.81% from 83,000 yuan/mt on July 24. SMM learned that the divergence between upstream and downstream for cobalt sulphate further intensified this week, with limited actual trading. On the supply side, primary smelters using intermediate products and MHP, supported by costs, still held firm quotes above 80,000 yuan/mt. Recyclers, leveraging raw material cost advantages, concentrated their quotes in the 76,000-78,000 yuan/mt range, with a few aggressive sellers able to go below 75,000 yuan/mt. The demand side remained sluggish, with downstream enterprises showing insufficient purchase willingness and leaning toward non-standard or old cargo sources to lower procurement costs. Recently, there were transactions of substandard goods and old cargo below 73,000 yuan/mt. Adjusted for quality, the actual price difference from new products was limited. However, in a weak demand environment, this price level was used by downstream as a bargaining benchmark, forcing some recyclers to passively follow suit. Moreover, after the sustained drop in refined cobalt, the cost of producing cobalt sulphate through re-dissolution fell to 72,000-73,000 yuan/mt, further strengthening downstream pressure for lower prices. In the short term, the cobalt salt market shows a slow downward trend. A stabilization and recovery will have to wait for the release of concentrated downstream restocking demand, which is expected to occur no earlier than mid-to-late August . : According to SMM spot quotes, cobalt chloride spot quotes continued to fall this week. After dropping 3,000 yuan/mt on the last trading day, spot quotes fell to 95,000-98,000 yuan/mt, with an average of 96,500 yuan/mt, a decline of 3.02% from 99,500 yuan/mt on July 24. In the spot market, SMM learned that the cobalt chloride market remained sluggish this week, with trading at minimal levels. On the supply side, from a real-time cost perspective, the cost of recycled materials and the re-smelting path for refined cobalt were already significantly lower than current market and actual trading prices. The key factor affecting enterprise pricing was that upstream smelters generally held large-scale inventories, mostly high-cost, and faced with a continuously falling market, it was difficult to lower average costs through low-price procurement. Therefore, high-cost inventory provided some support to quotes, which remained relatively firm. However, at the same time, some enterprises had already begun to gradually lower quotes to promote shipments, trying to spread out earlier losses by accelerating turnover. Yet, downstream absorption capacity was extremely limited, and even price reductions could not lead to volume trading. On the demand side, Co3O4 enterprises themselves had high inventory levels, with no signs of demand growth, and current purchase willingness was very low. Overall, in the short term, cobalt chloride prices still have downside room. : According to SMM spot quotes, Co3O4 spot quotes also showed a downward trend this week. As of July 31, spot quotes fell to 300,000-320,000 yuan/mt, with an average of 310,000 yuan/mt, down 10,000 yuan/mt or 3.13% from 320,000 yuan/mt on July 24. In the spot market, SMM learned that the Co3O4 market was also quiet this week, with low trading volumes. On the supply side, with high inventory levels, enterprises faced the dilemma of thin profits under current raw material cost accounting and the risk of inventory buildup, so they generally kept production at lower levels. Although there were occasional rumors of ultra-low-priced cargo, based on communications with various parties, the existence of some ultra-low-price deals was not denied, but they were not enough to represent the mainstream market. On the demand side, cathode plants had some inquiries, but actual purchases were limited. Current raw material inventories were sufficient to support production, with no urgent restocking needs. Overall, Co3O4 prices also have the potential to further decline in the short term. On the news front, in corporate developments, Chengtun Mining released its H1 2026 report, mentioning that the company achieved revenue of 19.264 billion yuan in H1, up 39.56% YoY; net profit attributable to shareholders of the publicly listed firm was 1.804 billion yuan, up 71.37% YoY. Chengtun Mining stated that during the reporting period, its energy metal business achieved revenue of 14.543 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 27.03%, basically consistent with the previous year. In H1 2026, copper production was 133,200 mt in metal content, cobalt production 3,700 mt in metal content, and nickel production 21,200 mt in metal content. Copper-cobalt segment: ① During the reporting period, the company's DRC copper-cobalt segment achieved stable output, with copper production reaching 132,200 mt in metal content, of which Xiongdi Mining achieved 74,400 mt in metal content. The company addressed the power shortage issue through a multi-type energy combination, building a modern energy system integrating specialization, intensification, and integration, boosting both operational efficiency and scale. ② Dali Sanxin actively advanced mine construction, aiming for trial production in Q4. Currently, land and other related procedures have been completed, well engineering is basically finished, and surface civil engineering construction is being actively promoted. ③ In April 2026, the company disclosed the planned acquisition of a 50% stake in Nkoyi Leopard Mining and Investment Limited, to indirectly obtain a 30% interest in a large specific copper-cobalt mining right. The deal was completed in July 2026, and cooperation on the mine is proceeding normally. During the reporting period, the company actively sought sustainable resource guarantees through exploration in potential areas and pursuing extensive copper resource M&A and cooperation. Furthermore, CNGR also released its H1 2026 performance forecast, expecting net profit attributable to shareholders of the publicly listed firm in H1 2026 to be in the range of 1.25-1.35 billion yuan, up 70.58%-84.23% YoY. Regarding the reasons for the performance change, CNGR stated that during the reporting period, the company seized the high-development opportunities in the global new energy industry and, leveraging its leading position in the battery materials field, achieved total sales of core products such as nickel-based, cobalt-based, phosphorus-based, and sodium-based materials exceeding 250,000 mt. By segment, ternary cathode precursor sales grew over 50% YoY in H1, with stable overall gross margin, further solidifying its industry-leading position; phosphorus-based material sales grew over 25% YoY, with profitability elasticity significantly released, successfully turning losses into profits; and sodium-ion battery precursor material sales maintained a high growth trend, continuing its industry leadership. Additionally, the company's upstream resource layout yielded notable results, with investment income from laterite nickel ore steadily increasing; the Indonesian pyrometallurgy nickel smelting project, with its cost advantages, effectively hedged local policy changes and maintained excellent profitability. Overall, the company's "resource + smelting + materials" entire industry chain integration advantage continued to deepen, with all business segments working synergistically to build a safety margin and anti-cyclical resilience for its operations.

Looking ahead to next week's operating rate for wire and cable enterprises, the industry remains in the traditional consumption off-season, and the renewed rise in copper prices further dampened downstream order signing willingness. Enterprises will continue to lower production loads. SMM expects that next week (July 31–August 6), the copper wire and cable operating rate will decline 1.5 percentage points WoW to 64.44%, and drop 1.5 percentage points YoY.

July copper cathode production was recorded at 1.1268 million mt, down 1.59% MoM.

[SMM Silver Express] SMM July 31: SMM 1# silver ingot production stood at 1,556 tonnes in July 2026, down 0.38% month-on-month and 3.59% year-on-year, with cumulative growth of 5.3% in the first seven months. Producer inventories rose 22.2% month-on-month. The decline was mainly due to ongoing maintenance at copper, lead and zinc smelters, with some inventories reserved for processing trade exports.