Platinum prices were in the doldrums today, with macro expectations swinging wildly and the market expected to maintain wild swings. In early trading, the most-traded GFEX platinum contract PT2608 settled at 407.5 yuan/g, down 1.20%, while the inverted spread between the best ask price of SGE platinum 9995 and GFEX PT2608 remained around 4 yuan/g. In the spot market, mainstream platinum quotations ranged from a discount of 1 yuan/g to parity against the PT2608 contract. The discount on mainstream quotations was basically flat from the previous trading day, with downstream consumption weak and wait-and-see sentiment strong. Overall, trading in the spot platinum market remained sluggish today.

[Overseas Macro Bullishness Battles Supply Bearishness, China's Destocking Supports SHFE Aluminum Bottom] On the domestic front, bullish factors are prominent. The proportion of liquid aluminum has continued to rise. Over the past week, aluminum ingot warehouse withdrawals hit a four-year high, and the pace of inventory destocking has accelerated significantly, forming support for the bottom of SHFE aluminum. Amid the interplay of bullish and bearish factors, overseas, the bullish impact of the US dollar and the bearish forces from supply and geopolitics offset each other. After its earlier excessive decline, LME aluminum's downward momentum has slowed, and in the short term, it is mainly consolidating at lows for repair; domestically, supported by rapid destocking, the probability of underperforming LME aluminum is low. The SHFE and LME markets may show slight divergence, and a sustained unilateral weak trend is unlikely.

[July 6 Morning Briefing] The US added 57,000 nonfarm jobs in June, below market expectations of an increase of 110,000. The combined job gains for April and May were revised down by 74,000. The most-traded SHFE nickel 2609 contract surged to the 128,000 yuan/mt level in early trading before pulling back slightly, and by the end of the morning session it was reported at 127,190 yuan/mt, up 0.59%. The US nonfarm payrolls report came in surprisingly weak, leading the market to turn more cautious on the employment outlook. Expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes cooled markedly, and the US dollar fell sharply, providing a catalyst for a rebound in nickel prices. In the short term, nickel prices are expected to be in the doldrums in the 125,000-135,000 yuan/mt range.

[SMM Analysis] SHFE copper cathode spot premiums experienced notable volatility in H1 2026, marked by deep discounts in phases, a recovery in Q2, and a return to positive territory by mid-year. In Q1, seasonal inventory buildup after the Chinese New Year, slow downstream recovery, and disruptions from contract rollovers repeatedly put spot premiums under pressure. Entering Q2, consumption improved QoQ, and concentrated smelter maintenance drove continuous destocking of domestic social inventory. In particular, the rapid decline in Guangdong inventory lifted spot premiums in South China, opened arbitrage opportunities for shipping inventory from East China to South China, and provided support to premiums in Shanghai and other regions. From May to June, although high copper prices and off-season expectations suppressed downstream purchases, the widening LME-COMEX spread diverted overseas supply to the US market, constraining the pace of imported copper replenishment in China, with low inventory levels still underpinning spot market resilience. Looking ahead to H2, SHFE copper premiums will be shaped by the interplay of inventory, consumption, imports, and supply additions. The Q3 off-season may limit the upside for premiums, but low inventories, uncertainty over import replenishment, and tight regional supply will continue to support spot premiums. In Q4, attention should be focused on the capacity ramp-up of new expansion projects such as Humon Phase 2, Chifeng Jintong Phase 2, and Shenghai Phase 2. If new supply is released smoothly, the import window opens, and consumption recovery remains weak, spot premiums may gradually come under pressure. However, if inventories stay low and import replenishment remains limited, premiums could still see intermittent strengthening opportunities.

[SMM Morning Brief: After Catch-Up Decline, Market Shifts to Wild Swings as Tight Ore Supply Provides a Floor and Macro Headwinds Intensify the Tug-of-War]

[SMM Analysis: Looking back at H1 2026, the polysilicon market, due to prominent overcapacity issues compounded by historical inventory and other factors, although occasionally rebounding on the back of policy expectations, the overall downward "downtrend" persisted. Looking ahead to H2 2026, SMM believes that from the supply-demand or capacity side, it is difficult to see significant spontaneous improvement. Key focus areas are policy expectations and cost dynamics—cost determines the price floor, while policy determines the price trend.

Published：June 30, 2026 Paper Market Volatility vs. Sound Fundamentals Gold and silver prices have recently fallen significantly, but for star investor Eric Sprott, the long-term outlook remains sound. In an interview with Sprott Money, he explained that the recent price declines were primarily due to high volatility in the futures markets and were not a sign of weakening fundamentals. Comparisons with the sharp, historic declines of 1980 and 2008 show that precious metals have always recovered once economic realities have pushed the paper market back into the background. At the end of January, the example of the silver price demonstrated just how strongly the futures market —with its massive short positions held by major commercial banks and sudden margin calls—can distort short-term price movements. Macroeconomic Environment and Demand from Asia Provide Support The mining billionaire is instead focusing on the overall macroeconomic picture. In light of skyrocketing government deficits, ongoing geopolitical tensions, and central banks caught between fighting inflation and promoting growth, Sprott anticipates a long-term loss of purchasing power for Western currencies. This loss of confidence in the fiat system makes physical gold indispensable as a hard asset. Physical demand from Asia provides an additional boost: While China imports large quantities and keeps its own production within the country, India remains a dominant buyer, according to Sprott, despite regulatory interventions. This is accompanied by central banks increasingly diversifying their reserves into precious metals. Silver: Supply Shortage Meets Technology Boom Silver plays a special role for Eric Sprott, as its rapidly growing industrial significance complements its monetary function. Megatrends such as renewable energy, artificial intelligence, and the expansion of data centers will drive sustained growth in demand, he explained. Since a large portion of this industrially used silver is permanently consumed and not recycled, the structural supply deficit of recent years continues to worsen. According to Sprott, this leads to a clear conclusion for investors: While futures positions may cause short-term market volatility, the long-term upward trend in gold and silver is sustainably underpinned by the global debt burden, Asian buyers, and massive industrial silver consumption. Source： https://goldinvest.de/en/gold-and-silver-forecast-why-star-investor-eric-sprott-calls-the-price-drop-short-term-noise

The gap between Q3 QMJP offers and actual transaction prices in the Japanese market has widened significantly. At present, the physical spot premium for primary aluminum ingots in Japan stands at USD 395 per metric ton, representing an increase of USD 43.5 per ton versus Q2. Nevertheless, overall market sentiment remains bearish, with spot transactions oscillating around the USD 385 per ton mark. The dual pressures from supply and demand fundamentals constitute the core driver behind the softening spot premium in Japan. On the supply side, market expectations for growing global aluminum supply surplus have intensified steadily. In addition, steady progress has been made in resuming aluminum production capacity in the Middle East, reinforcing expectations of rising overseas supply and capping upward room for spot premiums. On the demand side, Japan has entered its traditional seasonal lull in consumption as scheduled. Downstream end-users have slowed purchasing activity amid sluggish demand, gaining stronger bargaining power and shifting the supply-demand negotiation dynamic firmly in favor of buyers. As a result, the spread between QMJP ingot offers and physical transaction prices in Japan ranges from USD 65 to 70 per ton. Following the official release of Q3 QMJP pricing, spot offer prices in Japan firmed up temporarily, yet this failed to boost trading volumes, leaving the market locked in a stalemate between bulls and bears. Amid persistent expectations of expanded supply, the temporary firmness in spot prices is projected to give way to corrective declines. The bearish overall trend for Japanese aluminum ingot premiums in Q3 is unlikely to reverse. In other regional markets, trading activity in the spot aluminum ingot markets of Thailand and South Korea remained extremely muted this week with subdued overall liquidity. In the early week, ahead of the official publication of Q3 QMJP benchmarks, both traders and downstream manufacturers adopted a wait-and-see stance, limiting inventory restocking strictly to immediate operational needs. After the latest Q3 QMJP prices were released, benchmark levels fell short of pre-market consensus forecasts, prompting sellers across Southeast Asia and South Korea to lift their asking prices. Actual trading data, however, shows downstream buyers in Thailand and South Korea continued to purchase only to cover rigid demand, lacking substantive demand support. Spot premiums and discounts have thus remained range-bound at elevated levels. In the short term, resuming Middle Eastern smelter capacity and incremental overseas aluminum supply will continue to cap premium upside, compounded by weak seasonal end-user demand that adds further downward pressure to the market. Asian spot aluminum ingot premiums and discounts are therefore expected to maintain divergent, softening momentum, marked by volatile asking prices and persistently thin physical trading volumes in the near term.

Japan’s Q3 QMJP offers and transaction price spreads were wide, with actual spot premiums for Japanese aluminum ingot currently at $395/mt, up $43.5/mt QoQ from Q2. However, the overall market remained weak, with spot transactions consolidating around $380/mt. The core driver behind the weakening spot premiums in the Japanese market this time was dual pressure from supply and demand. Supply side, market expectations for incremental global aluminum supply release continued to heat up. In addition, the pace of production resumptions at Middle Eastern aluminum capacity progressed steadily, reinforcing expectations for overall supply release outside China and capping upside room for spot premiums. Demand side, the traditional consumption off-season in Japan arrived as expected, with downstream end-users slowing their procurement pace and demand lacking momentum. This strengthened downstream bargaining power, and the tug-of-war between upstream and downstream tilted decisively in favor of buyers. As a result, the spread between Japan QMJP aluminum ingot offers and actual transaction prices stood at $65-70/mt. After the official release of Q3 QMJP prices, Japan’s spot market offers briefly firmed, but this did not lead to a recovery in transactions, and a stalemate between bulls and bears persisted. Against the backdrop of strengthening supply release expectations, spot prices are expected to undergo a pullback adjustment after their brief firmness, making the overall weak pattern for Q3 Japanese aluminum ingot premiums difficult to reverse. Regional markets, spot aluminum ingot trading sentiment in Thailand and South Korea was very sluggish this week, with overall market activity low. Early in the week, as Q3 QMJP had not yet officially settled, traders and downstream enterprises generally held a wait-and-see sentiment, and the market was mainly characterized by just-in-time stockpiling. Following the official release of the latest Q3 QMJP prices, as the overall pricing fell short of earlier market expectations, sellers in Southeast Asia and South Korea raised their offers. However, judging from actual transactions, downstream enterprises in Thailand and South Korea still stuck to just-in-time procurement mode, with insufficient support from real market demand, and spot premiums maintained a pattern of consolidation at highs overall. In the short term, production resumptions in the Middle East and incremental supply release outside China will continue to cap the upside for premiums, while weak end-user demand during the off-season further compounds market pressure. Going forward, Asian aluminum ingot spot premiums are expected to continue a divergent and weak trend, with fluctuating offers and sluggish transactions remaining persistent features. [Data source statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on public data, market communication, and SMM’s internal database models, and are for reference only; they do not constitute decision-making advice.] Data source: SMM

In June, global scrap tungsten markets diverged. India followed China's tungsten price rally, with active trading and higher prices in mid-June before cooling as China softened. Europe saw low-level consolidation due to high speculative inventories, but prices began to edge up in late June as stocks cleared. China's tungsten market experienced a sharp rebound followed by a pullback, and is expected to consolidate in the near term, while medium-to-long-term fundamentals remain solid.