SMM Jul 11 news: Metals market: Overnight, base metals on the overseas and China markets showed mixed performance. LME aluminum led the losses with a 2.07% decline, while SHFE nickel led the gains with a 0.78% increase. The % changes of other metals were all within 1%. The alumina main contract fell 0.4%, and the cast aluminum main contract fell 0.78%. Overnight, ferrous metals all fell except for stainless steel and iron ore. Stainless steel edged up 0.03%, iron ore rose 0.27%, and both hot-rolled coil and rebar edged down. For coking coal and coke, coking coal fell 1.03%, and coke fell 1.15%. Overnight in precious metals, COMEX gold fell 0.29%, with a weekly gain of 0.08%. COMEX silver fell 0.74%, with a weekly decline of 1.25%. In China, SHFE gold fell 0.56%, with a weekly decline of 0.83%. SHFE silver fell 0.58%, with a weekly decline of 2.63%. HSBC lowered its average gold price forecasts for 2026 and 2027, citing expectations for a hawkish shift in the US Fed's monetary policy and persistent pressure from a stronger US dollar. The bank cut its 2026 average price forecast to $4,560/oz from $4,864, and its 2027 forecast to $4,925 from $5,000. HSBC expects gold prices to fluctuate in a $3,800-$4,700 range for the rest of 2026 and settle near $4,750 at year-end. (Wall Street CN) Overnight closing prices as of 7:17 AM Jul 11: Macro Front China: [State Council Executive Meeting: Boost Scaled Development of Emerging Pillar Industries Along Entire Chain, Strengthen Basic Research and Key Software/Hardware R&D] According to CCTV, Premier Li Qiang presided over a State Council Executive Meeting to discuss work on cultivating emerging pillar industries. The meeting noted the need to boost the scaled development of emerging pillar industries along the entire chain, strengthen basic research and key software/hardware development, and accelerate technology iteration and ecosystem improvement. It also called for optimized regulatory models and guidance for local authorities to pursue differentiated development based on local conditions. (Jin10 Data App) [Ministry of Commerce, General Administration of Customs: Impose Temporary Export Prohibition on Helium] The Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs issued an announcement stating that, in accordance with the Foreign Trade Law of the People's Republic of China, they have decided to impose temporary export prohibition management on helium (Customs Commodity Code: 2804290010). This announcement took effect on the date of its issue, and subsequent adjustments will be announced separately. (Jin10 Data App) [National Electricity Load Hits Record High of 1.518 Billion kW] This year, continuous new-quality development of the national economy and steady improvement in end-user electrification levels, coupled with recent high-temperature weather across many parts of the country, have seen electricity loads climb rapidly. July 10, China’s nationwide electricity load hit a record high for the first time this year, reaching a peak of 1.518 billion kW, an increase of 10 million kW over the previous record. Since the start of summer, the power grid in south China, along with multiple provincial-level grids including Guangdong, Guangxi, Hainan, Ningxia, Gansu, Fujian, and Shaanxi, has collectively set new load records over 20 times. The repeated record highs in electricity demand this year have been jointly boosted by three main factors. First, industrial electricity consumption grew steadily. High-tech manufacturing and high-end equipment manufacturing flourished, while electricity use by emerging industries such as NEVs, energy storage, and computing equipment continued to expand. Second, electricity consumption in the service sector grew relatively quickly. Since the beginning of this year, electricity consumption growth rates for charging and battery swapping services and internet data services both exceeded 40%. Third, high temperatures drove up electricity loads. As living standards continue to improve, the proportion of air-conditioning cooling load nationwide approached 30%, exceeding 40% in some provinces. (National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC)) [National Energy Administration: Non-fossil energy consumption share to increase by an average of about 1 ppt annually by 2028] The National Energy Administration (NEA) issued the *Energy Sector Energy Conservation and Carbon Reduction Action Plan (2026–2028)*. The plan proposes that by 2028, the share of non-fossil energy consumption should increase by an average of about 1 percentage point annually; the coal consumption rate of coal-fired power units should be reasonably controlled, with the proportion of coal power capacity meeting current benchmark energy efficiency standards striving to increase by 15 percentage points; a batch of zero-carbon and low-carbon coal mining areas and oil zones should be established; support should be given to building a batch of zero-carbon industrial parks, achieving significant progress in energy conservation and carbon reduction in key industries, and continuously improving the level of green energy use. The plan also proposes vigorously promoting energy conservation and carbon reduction in thermal power. It will steadily and orderly shut down a batch of 300,000 kW class and below coal-fired power units that meet the conditions, and encourage the construction of replacement units that meet next-generation coal power standards ; promote the implementation of a batch of super (ultra) critical cross-generation upgrade retrofits for 600,000 kW class coal-fired power units. Support the implementation of zero-carbon and low-carbon fuel co-firing and Carbon Capture, Utilization and Storage (CCUS) retrofits for units that meet the conditions, with carbon emission levels per kWh after retrofitting expected to be reduced by about 10%. Implement a batch of coal power, gas power, and new energy integration projects, supporting coal power and new energy integration to achieve carbon reduction effects through methods such as coupling thermal storage for peak shaving and peak load supply, and integrated collection and transmission. (Jin10 Data APP) US Dollar Side: Overnight, the US dollar index edged up 0.03% to 100.96, gaining 0.05% for the week. The US Fed’s semi-annual report showed that overall US economic activity maintained steady expansion in 2026, mainly driven by high-tech investment and government spending. Factory output grew strongly due to AI-related data center investment, with production capacity continuing to improve. However, the housing market stalled, and external economic growth was sluggish, weighed down by the Middle East conflict and tariffs. The labour market was generally stable, with both wages and productivity growing, but slowing immigration led to a decline in labour supply, and small businesses and households still faced relatively tight credit conditions. Inflation remained elevated and rose further in the spring, while asset prices were above historical norms. The financial system was sound overall, bank reserves were ample, and the private credit market operated normally despite some redemption pressures. Long-term inflation expectations were basically anchored near the 2% target, though uncertainty from the Iran conflict remained a major risk. (Jin10 Data APP) The report noted that the US Fed's preferred Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index remained about double the 2% target as of May this year. This is also the first monetary policy report released since the new Fed Chairman Warsh took office. Warsh will appear before House and Senate committees next Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively, for his semi-annual routine testimony review on monetary policy. (Wallstreetcn) According to CME "FedWatch": The probability of the US Fed keeping rates unchanged in July is 66.3%, while the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike is 33.7%. For September, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 31.0%, a cumulative 25 basis point hike is 51.1%, and a cumulative 50 basis point hike is 18.0%. (Jin10 Data APP) Other Currencies: Reuters, citing three sources familiar with the Bank of Japan's thinking, reported that the BOJ plans to keep interest rates unchanged in July but will maintain its policy guidance, committing to continue the process of rate hikes. One source said, "Downside risks to the economy have diminished somewhat as oil prices fall. But elevated costs from past imports will continue to put upward pressure on prices." Two other sources voiced similar views. They also said the BOJ may revise up its economic growth forecast for fiscal 2026 in its July quarterly report and continue to watch for inflation overshoot risks, as cost increases from yen weakness and strong AI demand partially offset some of the impact from falling oil prices. (Jin10 Data APP) ING economists Marieke Blom and Amrita Naik Nimbalkar said in a report that if the Eurozone's savings rate were to fall to pre-pandemic levels, it could unleash demand for goods and services worth about 1% of GDP. In Q1 this year, household savings accounted for 14.3% of disposable income, higher than the pre-pandemic five-year average of 12.5%. In the US, the savings rate in the final quarter of 2025 was 10.2%, suggesting a similar level could boost Eurozone GDP by nearly 2%. Consumption is expected to remain weak, as higher mortgage rates, slowing credit growth, and precautionary savings weigh on spending. However, the shift from bank deposits to investments could lay the groundwork for stronger spending and domestic demand in the coming years, they said. (Jin10 Data APP) Macro Front: Next week in China, data releases will include China's June trade balance in dollar terms, trade balance in yuan terms, June import and export YoY rates, Q2 GDP YoY rate, June total retail sales of consumer goods YoY, June industrial value added of enterprises above designated size YoY, June total electricity consumption YoY, and June total electricity consumption. In the US, data due includes the US June unadjusted CPI YoY, seasonally adjusted CPI MoM, seasonally adjusted core CPI MoM, unadjusted core CPI YoY, June PPI YoY, June PPI MoM, July New York Fed Empire State Manufacturing Index, initial jobless claims for the week ending July 11, June retail sales MoM, July Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, June NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, weekly change in ADP employment figures for the week ending June 27, July NAHB Housing Market Index, May business inventories MoM, June pending home sales index MoM, June annualized housing starts, June total building permits, June import price index MoM, June industrial production MoM, preliminary July one-year inflation expectations, and preliminary July University of Michigan consumer sentiment index. For the Eurozone, releases include May industrial production MoM, May seasonally adjusted trade balance, May seasonally adjusted current account, final June CPI YoY, and final June CPI MoM. For the UK, data includes the May three-month GDP MoM rate, May manufacturing output MoM, May seasonally adjusted goods trade balance, and May industrial production MoM. Canada's May wholesale sales MoM and the Bank of Canada's interest rate decision on July 15 will also be released. Furthermore, the State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on H1 2026 import and export situation; the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) will release the monthly residential sales price report for 70 large and medium-sized cities; the State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on national economic performance; the NEA will release total electricity consumption data around the 15th of each month. A new round of domestic refined oil price adjustments will commence. Fed Governor Waller will speak; Fed Chairman Warsh will testify before the House Financial Services Committee at the hearing on the "US Fed's Semi-Annual Monetary Policy Report"; 2027 FOMC voting member and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee will participate in a fireside chat; FOMC permanent voting member and New York Fed President Williams will speak; Fed Chairman Warsh will testify before the Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Committee at the hearing on the "US Fed's Semi-Annual Monetary Policy Report". On July 16, the US Fed will release its Beige Book on economic conditions; 2028 FOMC voting member and St. Louis Fed President Musalem will speak; 2026 FOMC voting member and Dallas Fed President Logan will speak; Fed Vice Chairman Jefferson will speak on the economy and monetary policy. Bank of England Governor Bailey will speak; the Bank of Canada will announce its interest rate decision and monetary policy report, with Governor Macklem and Senior Deputy Governor Rogers holding a monetary policy press conference. Crude Oil Side: Overnight, oil prices on both sides of the Atlantic fell, with US crude down 0.79% and Brent crude down 1.42%. On a weekly basis, US crude rose 4.11% and Brent rose 4.3%, together snapping a four-week losing streak. The market is currently still pinning hopes on when navigation through the Strait of Hormuz can resume. Notably, after the escalation of the conflict between the US and Iran this week, the weekly crude oil price shook off the previous four-week losing streak, rising more than 4% for the week again. According to CCTV News, on Friday, July 10, local time, US President Trump posted on his social media platform "Truth Social" that Iran wants to continue "negotiations" with the US, and the US has agreed to continue negotiations. Trump also stated that the US has made it clear to Iran that the ceasefire is over. Subsequently, Xinhua News Agency, citing US media reports, said that a new round of US-Iran negotiations might be held in Switzerland next week. However, according to Iranian media Fars News, sources close to the Iranian negotiating team said claims that a new round of talks between Iran and the US would be held next week were untrue. According to CCTV, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghaei said on Friday that Iran has never requested negotiations with the US, but agreed to a visit by mediators to Iran. (Wallstreetcn) A head office reporter learned from Iranian sources that Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi will lead a diplomatic delegation to visit Oman on the 11th. During the visit, the two sides plan to engage in dialogue and exchange views on bilateral relations and the regional situation, particularly the current state of the Strait of Hormuz. (CCTV) Data released by international market service agency Kepler on the 10th showed that on July 9, the number of vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz area dropped to 22 from 30 the previous day, marking two consecutive days of declining traffic in the strait. Kepler said this data includes both commercial and non-commercial vessels, with commercial vessel traffic slightly higher than non-commercial. "The renewed escalation of the military confrontation between the US and Iran has weakened market confidence that diplomatic efforts can bring stability to the situation in the near term." (Xinhua News Agency) Barclays: Risks around our Brent crude oil price forecasts of $96 per barrel for 2026 and $85 for 2027 are fairly balanced. This week, OPEC will release its monthly oil market report (specific release time to be determined, generally published around 18:00-21:00 Beijing time).

This week (July 4–10, 2026), the secondary aluminum market outside China remained in the doldrums, with the price centers of aluminum scrap and ADC12 declining further. As the impact of supply disruptions in the Middle East gradually faded, market trading logic returned to supply-demand fundamentals, while downstream procurement demand remained sluggish, pushing aluminum scrap and secondary aluminum alloy prices outside China under pressure. The overall trading atmosphere was relatively sluggish.

The overseas secondary aluminum market shifted from supply-driven gains to demand-led corrections in H1 as geopolitical risks eased and downstream demand remained weak. At the same time, the UAE, the EU and the US introduced measures to strengthen domestic scrap resource management, reinforcing aluminum scrap's strategic role in global supply chains. In H2, SMM expects demand recovery to be the key driver of prices, while policy will continue to shape trade flows and premium scrap availability.

In H1 2026, Shanghai aluminum prices followed a high-first-then-low trajectory. In Q1, a mix of market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East drove aluminum prices to multi-year highs. Entering Q2, confirmation of the US strong-dollar policy stance, easing supply disruptions in the Middle East, and a seasonal lull in domestic downstream consumption combined to push the aluminum price center downward continuously. Looking ahead to H2, persistent strong US dollar sentiment and overseas liquidity concerns will cap non-ferrous metal valuations. On the supply side, elevated aluminum prices have incentivized higher production releases; domestic operating capacity is projected to rise month-on-month, while newly commissioned capacity in the Middle East and Indonesia will ramp up output gradually. On the demand side, domestic consumption recovery is set to remain modest. Existing export order backlogs will still prop up aluminum semi-finished product shipments, yet market expectations for new export orders have softened. All told, Shanghai aluminum’s price center is likely to slide further in H2, delivering a full-year high-first-then-low price pattern. 1. H1 2026 Shanghai Aluminum Price Review by Stage 1.1 Q1: Macroeconomics & Geopolitics Dominate, Aluminum Prices Surge Then Consolidate Shanghai aluminum prices in Q1 2026 were primarily dictated by macro sentiment and overseas supply disruptions, with seasonally weak fundamentals taking a backseat. January: Rate Cut Expectations & Capital Inflows Fuel Price Rally Fundamentals: A seasonal lull ahead of the Lunar New Year created demand weakness, leading to a continuous build-up of social aluminum ingot inventories. By late January, SMM-tracked social inventories hit 782,000 tonnes, the highest level for the period in three years. Sustained high aluminum margins squeezed profit margins for downstream processors, dampening their willingness to operate and curbing primary aluminum purchasing activity. Macroeconomics: Markets priced in an impending Fed rate-cut cycle, sending the US Dollar Index sharply lower and drawing heavy speculative capital into commodity futures. Complementary pro-consumption policies rolled out domestically further underpinned aluminum prices. SMM’s average A00 aluminum price stood at RMB 24,086/tonne in January, the highest monthly average in H1. February: Cooling Rate-Cut Hopes Trigger Range-Bound Weakness Fundamentals: Lunar New Year holidays triggered a sharp collapse in downstream procurement, while smelters ramped up ingot casting, pushing social inventories even higher. Post-holiday SMM social inventories climbed to 1.108 million tonnes, with bloated stock levels failing to provide upward price support. Macroeconomics: Dimming Fed rate-cut bets lifted the US Dollar Index, prompting profit-taking liquidation that dragged aluminum prices lower and locked the market into weak consolidation. The average SMM A00 aluminum price retreated to RMB 23,385/tonne in February, down roughly RMB 700 month-on-month. March: Alternating Middle East Supply Risks & Demand Drags Intensify Volatility March trading centered on alternating forces of Middle East supply disruptions and demand-side headwinds, amplifying long-short volatility and driving aluminum prices through a pattern of rally-correction-rebound. Supply-side developments saw widespread overseas production curtailments: Mozal entered maintenance; Qatalum maintained a 60% operating rate and ruled out further output reductions; Alba shut down Lines 1, 2 and 3 with additional cutbacks rumoured; major damage to EGA facilities stoked fears of large-scale production suspensions. SMM estimates tally nearly 4 million tonnes of overseas primary aluminum capacity subject to cuts, including Mozambique’s smelter. Worries over contracting overseas supply became the core catalyst for periodic price rallies. Geopolitical risks: Escalating conflict in the Middle East raised widespread market concerns over shipping security in the Strait of Hormuz, embedding persistent geopolitical risk premiums into aluminum valuations. Demand-side headwinds: Mounting stagflation fears lifted risk aversion; lofty aluminum prices deterred downstream buying, while surging energy and freight costs crushed processor profitability and restrained demand recovery. SMM’s average A00 aluminum price rebounded to RMB 24,386/tonne in March, the second-highest monthly average in H1, alongside markedly wider price swings. 1.2 Q2: Expanding Supply & Marginal Demand Weakness Push Price Center Lower In Q2, high aluminum prices lifted domestic capacity utilization, while the market gradually priced in the impacts of overseas smelter cutbacks, shifting focus back to domestic fundamentals. Shanghai aluminum’s average price fell from roughly RMB 24,665/tonne in April to RMB 23,769/tonne in June, with prices dipping to an intra-year low of RMB 22,665/tonne in late June. Supply side: Strong prices encouraged primary aluminum smelters to boost operating rates and lift domestic output. The market gradually absorbed the impact of cutbacks in Mozambique and the Middle East, weakening the Shanghai-LME aluminum price ratio. Between June and July, rumours circulated that curtailed Middle East capacity would resume production, coupled with sequential commissioning of new Indonesian smelters, amplifying expectations of rising overseas supply. Industry communications indicate domestic primary aluminum output rose approximately 3.5% year-on-year over the first five months. Demand side: Elevated aluminum prices weighed on domestic end-user consumption, yet a stronger LME premium relative to Shanghai aluminum boosted semi-finished aluminum exports, offsetting weak domestic primary aluminum offtake. General Administration of Customs data records cumulative exports of unwrought aluminum and semi-finished products at 2.685 million tonnes in Jan-May, up 10.4% YoY. April single-month exports hit 598,000 tonnes, a one-year-plus high, followed by May shipments of 632,000 tonnes, up 15.5% YoY. Robust export volumes effectively filled the gap left by muted domestic consumption. Inventory side: Q2 delivered a pronounced destocking cycle. Social inventories peaked at 1.465 million tonnes in early May before falling to 1.165 million tonnes by end-June, a total drawdown of around 300,000 tonnes with an accelerated destocking pace. Weekly inventory drawdowns once surged to 170,000 tonnes, a four-year high for single-week de-stocking volumes. 2. Fundamental Supply & Demand Analysis 2.1 Supply: High Smelting Margins Boost Operating Rates, New Capacity Ramp-Ups Keep H1 Supply Ample Persistently robust smelting profitability in H1 2026 significantly expanded production flexibility, acting as the core driver of loose supply conditions through the first half. On one hand, sustained aluminum price strength maintained healthy per-tonne margins, maximizing smelters’ production incentives. On the other hand, new projects commissioned from late 2025 through H1 2026 entered sequential ramp-up phases, delivering steady monthly output increments. Continuous volume growth from newly commissioned capacity further lifted domestic primary aluminum production. The combined effects drove steady gains in national primary aluminum output, resulting in abundant raw material supply across the market. 2.2 Demand: Muted Domestic Consumption, Exports Act as Key Support Domestic primary aluminum demand in H1 2026 displayed a clear divergence: soft domestic offtake offset by buoyant external demand. Persistently high aluminum prices suppressed downstream purchasing, yet semi-finished aluminum exports benefited from favourable cross-market price differentials and delivered standout performance. General Administration of Customs data shows China exported 1.435 million tonnes of aluminum semi-finished products in Jan-May 2026, up 13.7% YoY, with May single-month exports reaching 320,000 tonnes (+14.7% YoY). Elevated export volumes over the first five months created a vital outlet for domestic primary aluminum digestions. The core driver behind export strength was the LME-over-Shanghai price spread: overseas markets faced tight supply expectations stemming from Middle East production cuts, while bloated domestic inventories depressed Shanghai aluminum, creating lucrative profit windows for semi-finished aluminum exporters. 2.3 Inventories: H1 Inventory Build to Multi-Year Highs Followed by Rapid Q2 Destocking Domestic social primary aluminum inventories traversed three distinct phases in H1 2026: rapid accumulation, consolidation at elevated levels, then steep destocking. Early-year seasonal weakness ahead of the Lunar New Year combined with high aluminum prices curbing demand drove continuous inventory builds, which peaked at a multi-year high of 1.465 million tonnes in early May. Subsequent downstream post-holiday restocking and surging export shipments triggered accelerated inventory drawdowns through Q2. The sharp destocking rate stemmed from concentrated export deliveries paired with a wave of downstream replenishment demand. 3. H2 2026 Outlook 3.1 Macroeconomics: Strong US Dollar Caps Metal Valuations The US will maintain its strong-dollar policy stance, keeping the US Dollar Index elevated and capping valuation upside across non-ferrous metals. Middle Eastern geopolitical risk premiums will gradually fade amid improved shipping outlook for the Strait of Hormuz and easing overseas liquidity jitters, creating long-term bearish pressure on aluminum prices. 3.2 Supply: Overseas Capacity Resumptions & New Commissioning Run Parallel Overseas market developments include incremental production restarts across Middle Eastern smelters, alongside faster ramp-up schedules for newly commissioned overseas capacity. 3.3 Demand: Weakening Support from Export Orders Short-term backlogged orders will continue to underpin semi-finished aluminum export volumes, yet narrowing cross-market price spreads have softened market expectations for new export order intake, pointing to downside risks for export growth over the medium-to-long term. Market participants will closely monitor domestic seasonal peak consumption trends and overseas new order placement momentum. 4. Comprehensive Market Assessment All factors considered, the Shanghai aluminum market will face dual headwinds of macro valuation pressure and expanding supply volumes throughout H2 2026.

SMM, July 9: In the metals market: As of the midday close, base metals on the domestic market moved broadly lower. SHFE copper and SHFE aluminum fell 0.68% and 0.65%, respectively. SHFE zinc dropped 0.77%, SHFE lead lost 0.19%, SHFE tin tumbled 1.69%, and SHFE nickel declined 0.63%. In addition, the most-traded foundry aluminum futures contract fell 0.78%, while the most-traded alumina contract edged up 0.11%. The most-traded lithium carbonate contract slumped 5.32%. The most-traded silicon metal contract lost 0.72%. The most-traded polysilicon futures contract dropped 2.63%. Ferrous metals mostly fell. Iron ore edged lower, rebar lost 0.16%, and HRC closed flat at 3,294 yuan/mt. Stainless steel tumbled 2.09%. In terms of coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract dipped 0.12%, while the most-traded coke contract rose 0.23%. On the overseas base metals market, as of 11:41 AM, LME metals showed mixed performance. LME copper edged higher, LME aluminum fell 0.18%, and LME lead lost 0.16%. LME zinc rose 0.43%, LME tin gained 0.12%, and LME nickel declined 0.49%. In the precious metals sector, as of 11:41 AM, COMEX gold fell 0.38% and COMEX silver dropped 0.8%. On the domestic precious metals market: SHFE gold fell 1.87%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract tumbled 4.81%. Additionally, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures contract dropped 2.46%, and the most-traded palladium futures contract slumped 3.35%. As of the midday close, the most-traded container freight index futures contract dropped 7.38% to 2,358 points. Selected futures midday market data as of 11:41 AM, July 9: Spot Market and Fundamentals Copper: Today, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was reported at 100 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was reported at a premium of 40 yuan/mt, up 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; and SX-EW copper was reported at a discount of 30 yuan/mt, up 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 102,475 yuan/mt, down 430 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average price of SX-EW copper was 102,375 yuan/mt, down 425 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot market: Guangdong inventory fell for the sixth consecutive day, primarily due to persistently low arrivals... Macro Front China: [National Bureau of Statistics: June CPI Rose 1% YoY, PPI Rose 4.1% YoY, PPI YoY Growth Slightly Widened] NBS data showed that in June 2026, the national consumer price index rose 1.0% YoY. Specifically, the index rose 1.0% in urban areas and 0.8% in rural areas; food prices fell 1.6%, while non-food prices rose 1.5%; consumer goods prices rose 1.1%, and service prices rose 0.8%. In H1, the national Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 1.0% YoY. In June, national CPI fell 0.3% MoM, with urban areas down 0.4%, rural areas down 0.3%; food prices down 0.4%, non-food prices down 0.3%; consumer goods prices down 0.6%, and service prices flat. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed that in June 2026, the national Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 4.1% YoY but fell 0.3% MoM. The purchasing price index for industrial producers rose 6.4% YoY and fell 0.2% MoM. In the first half of the year, the PPI rose 1.5% YoY, and the purchasing price index rose 2.4% YoY. Dong Lijuan, Chief Statistician of the Urban Department of the NBS, interprets the CPI and PPI data for June 2026. [PBOC reverse repo operation resulted in a net withdrawal of 278.5 billion yuan today)] The PBOC conducted 10 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations today, while 288.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos matured, resulting in a net withdrawal of 278.5 billion yuan. (Jin10 Data APP) US dollar: As of 11:41, the US dollar index fell 0.12% to 100.95. The minutes of the Fed's June meeting showed that officials are increasingly concerned about high inflation. Although officials worried that broadening price increases might warrant rate hikes, they followed Fed Chairman Warsh's lead and released a more streamlined policy statement. At the June 16-17 meeting, a few participants saw a case for hiking rates immediately. But the broader discussion appeared evenly split: "most participants" saw scenarios where inflation would pull back toward the Fed's 2% target on its own, while also seeing scenarios where inflation would remain persistently elevated. "Almost all" of those holding the latter view believed rate hikes would be necessary in such a scenario. The minutes said, "Participants generally judged that information received during the intermeeting period indicated that upside risks to price stability remained elevated, while downside risks to achieving maximum employment had diminished." In the end, "all participants" supported keeping rates unchanged. (Jin10 Data APP) According to CME FedWatch: The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in July is 69.0%, and a cumulative 25-bp hike is 31.0%. By September, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 31.1%, a cumulative 25-bp hike is 51.9%, and a cumulative 50-bp hike is 17.0%. (Jinshi Data APP) 》Wall Street's Take on the Fed's June Meeting Minutes: Focus on Inflation, No Urgency for Near-Term Rate Hikes Fed Chairman Warsh Kevin will attend hearings before the House Financial Services Committee and the Senate Banking Committee on July 14 and 15, respectively, to testify on the semi-annual monetary policy report to Congress. According to an announcement on the Senate Banking Committee's official website, Warsh will appear before the committee at 10:00 a.m. US Eastern Time on July 15 for a hearing centered on the US Fed's semi-annual monetary policy report to Congress, which will be webcast live. Previously, the House Financial Services Committee had issued a notice on June 22 confirming that Warsh would testify at the same topic hearing before the House at 10:00 a.m. Eastern Time on July 14. This hearing holds significant reference value for the market. As the Fed Chairman makes his first public testimony on monetary policy to Congress, Warsh's language and stance will provide crucial clues for the outside world to assess the US Fed's policy trajectory. (Wallstreetcn) Data: Today will see the release of data including Germany's seasonally adjusted trade balance for May, US initial jobless claims for the week ending July 4, and US existing home sales annualized for June. Additionally, attention should be paid to: the US Fed releasing its monetary policy meeting minutes; the European Central Bank releasing its June monetary policy meeting minutes; and a speech by FOMC permanent voting member and New York Fed President Williams. Crude Oil: As of 11:41, oil prices in both markets continued to rise, extending gains from the previous two trading sessions, with US crude up 1.18% and Brent crude up 1.13%. Concerns over supply disruptions stemming from escalating Middle East tensions underpinned oil prices. The US launched strikes against Iran for a second consecutive day, as the fragile ceasefire between the two countries grew increasingly unstable, bringing traffic through the Strait of Hormuz to a near standstill on Thursday. Ship-tracking data showed that observable traffic on this world's most critical energy chokepoint was concentrated mainly along routes near the northern part of the waterway, approved by Iran, while the US-backed Oman corridor remained sluggish. Among large vessels, only one US-sanctioned very large crude carrier (VLCC) sailed out of the Persian Gulf, while an Iranian-flagged container ship was spotted in the strait. However, it cannot be ruled out that some vessels may have transited the strait with their transponders turned off. This was in sharp contrast to the recent daily activity in the Strait of Hormuz. Data from Kpler showed that in the three weeks since the US and Iran reached a temporary agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, the daily average commodity vessel crossings stood at 34, peaking at 59 on June 24, compared with fewer than 20 on most days during the war. (Jin10 Data APP) Goldman Sachs expects that if the 60-day negotiations continue and the Iran oil exemption is restored, Persian Gulf oil flows will recover by the end of July, at which point the Strait of Hormuz would need an additional 6.6 million barrels per day of throughput. If talks break down and tanker attacks escalate, along with a possible US blockade of Iranian oil, Persian Gulf flows could decline further. (Jin10 Data APP) Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

[SMM Rare Earth Flash] London-listed critical minerals company NeoTerra Group announced that its Monte Muambe project in Mozambique has made a breakthrough in metallurgical testing, confirming a multi-commodity process route capable of simultaneous production of acid-grade fluorite, separated heavy rare earths, and gallium-containing material. In two-stage flotation tests, gallium was enriched approximately 100% in the first-stage tailings. The project holds a 25-year mining license, and JORC resources include 13.6 million mt (TREO grade 2.42%), 3.48 million mt (CaF₂ grade 20.6%), and 11.73 million mt (Ga₂O₃ grade 54.7 g/mt).

In H1 2026, the nickel salt (nickel sulphate) market experienced wild swings of "two rallies and two pullbacks," with price movements dominated by a pattern of cost support and demand-side drive.

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] Funds Drive SS Futures Higher, Spot Market Trade Sluggish According to SMM news on July 7, SS futures maintained a pattern of consolidating on a strong note overall. Fundamentals did not change significantly. Driven by fund-side operations, SS extended its strengthening trend from the previous trading day. As of the close, the most-traded SS contract settled at 14,775 yuan/mt. In the spot market, although SS futures continued to run strong, spot fundamentals did not improve noticeably: while spot offers were raised following the rally, after low-priced cargoes saw concentrated deals yesterday, market trading weakened again today, with confidence in the outlook remaining insufficient. The most-traded SS futures contract. At 10:15 am, SS2608 was at 14,790 yuan/mt, up 65 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in Wuxi were in the range of 280-680 yuan/mt. In the spot market, the average price for Wuxi cold-rolled 201/2B coil was flat; for cold-rolled slit-edge 304/2B coil, the average price in Wuxi rose 50 yuan/mt, and in Foshan it rose 50 yuan/mt; Wuxi cold-rolled 316L/2B coil price was flat; for hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coil, Wuxi offers were flat; cold-rolled 430/2B coil in both Wuxi and Foshan was flat. This week, the tug-of-war between macro and industry logic dominated futures moves. US inflation data pulled back, expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes cooled further, and the US dollar index weakened, overall boosting commodity and nonferrous metals valuations and providing macro support for the metals sector. However, sentiment on the industry side remained persistently bearish, …

(Kitco News) - Although gold prices have been unable to break initial resistance above $4,200, one market strategist expects the worst of the selling pressure from the months-long correction may now be over. In his latest precious metals note, Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank, said he believes the price action in the gold market is shifting from liquidation to consolidation and base-building. “The sector has moved from being aggressively bid to selectively accumulated, and the next move will likely depend on whether macro conditions continue to ease or once again turn hostile,” he said in his Monday note. Hansen added that gold continues to be driven by market expectations surrounding U.S. monetary policy. Although markets still expect the U.S. central bank to raise interest rates this year, aggressive forecasts have been pared back following last week’s disappointing employment data, which showed that only 57,000 jobs were created in June. At the same time, gold is also benefiting from optimistic comments from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, who emphasized his commitment to price stability and returning inflation to the central bank's target. However, he also said inflation risks had eased in recent weeks since taking over leadership of the Federal Reserve. In a comment to Kitco News, Hansen said he does not expect the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates this year as inflation pressures continue to ease, in line with Warsh’s comments. “Forward inflation expectations have collapsed, so tightening when the reason for tightening is easing with energy prices slumping makes no sense. Once that becomes the general market view, the dollar will soften as a very elevated long gets squeezed while short-end bond yields will move back towards Fed Funds rates,” he said. However, until the Federal Reserve’s policy path becomes clearer, Hansen said gold still has a lot of ground to recover, with prices remaining 26% below January’s highs. “Support below USD 4,000 has held so far, but the rebound towards USD 4,200 last week was met with renewed selling, indicating that some investors are still using strength to reduce exposure. Such price action is typical after a deep correction and helps explain why building a durable market trough can take time,” he said. “On the charts, the 200-day moving average near USD 4,485 represents the first major hurdle. Above that, the 38.2% retracement of the roughly USD 1,650 January-to-June correction sits near USD 4,574. A break above these levels would further improve the technical picture. Until then, the recovery is better viewed as an attempt to build a base." Along with growing optimism toward gold, Hansen said he is also encouraged by the recent price action in silver, even though prices on Monday were capped at $63.27 an ounce. “ Silver ’s latest sell-off was arrested ahead of key support in the mid-USD 50s, with the subsequent rebound taking prices back above USD 60. The move is encouraging, but like gold, silver still has considerable work to do to repair the technical and psychological damage inflicted during the past few months. Silver combines gold ’s macro sensitivity with a tighter fundamental backdrop. Multi-year supply deficits and growing industrial demand provide structural support, but the market is much smaller and more flow-sensitive than gold. That makes silver particularly attractive to momentum-driven investors when conditions improve, while also exposing it to sharper liquidation when sentiment reverses,” he said. Source： https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-07-06/gold-price-may-have-found-its-floor-liquidation-gives-way-consolidation

July 6, 2026 Despite current headwinds from high U.S. yields and a strong dollar, HSBC believes the gold price still has further upside potential through the end of 2026. While the precious metal is currently trading within a narrow range in the short term—as higher real yields increase the opportunity cost of this non-interest-bearing asset—analysts remain extremely bullish on the long-term investment case. Short-Term Pressure: Raising Liquidity Rather Than a Safe Haven During the recent geopolitical crises in the Middle East and amid rising oil prices, gold behaved less like a traditional safe haven and, at times, moved in tandem with the stock market. In an environment marked by inflation concerns and falling stock markets, investors primarily used the precious metal as a highly liquid hedge. To quickly generate cash during tense market phases or to meet impending margin calls on other investments, gold positions were aggressively sold off. This development was accompanied by previously massively overextended positioning in the futures market. Driven in part by inexperienced speculators, a noticeable correction followed the rapid surge to around $5,400 per ounce at the end of January, as these often leveraged positions had to be hastily unwound. Also noteworthy for commodity investors is the profoundly altered market dynamic: The historical correlation between gold and oil, which was still strongly positive in the 1970s and 1980s, has since decoupled dramatically. Today, this correlation has weakened to a value of around 0.15 or even into negative territory, posing entirely new challenges for diversification in modern portfolios. Structural demand from Asia and ETF inflows provide support The gold price owes its solid foundation to the ongoing need for diversification among institutional investors. Global de-dollarization and geopolitical uncertainties, along with steady ETF inflows, are driving demand, particularly in Asia. On the Shanghai Gold Exchange, this is reflected in a significant price premium of around 20 U.S. dollars. The focus here is less on jewelry or coins and more on large-format bars for the institutional sector. Regulatory changes in China and India now allow large local insurers and asset managers to strategically build up gold positions. This robust demand is complemented by steady purchases by central banks, as underscored by the People’s Bank of China ’s recent acquisitions of an additional 8.1 metric tons. Source： https://goldinvest.de/en/gold-price-forecast-for-2026-why-the-precious-metal-holds-huge-potential-despite-headwinds