[SMM Tin Midday Commentary: US Dollar Fluctuations Drive Futures Fluctuations, the Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract Consolidates in the Morning]

(Kitco News) - Gold's recent correction has likely run its course as the key macro headwinds that pressured the precious metal are beginning to fade, according to one Canadian research firm, which argues that real interest rates have likely peaked and the U.S. dollar will eventually turn from a headwind into a tailwind for bullion. After establishing a neutral position in Spring, Commodity analysts at BCA Research now see attractive value and are recommending investors start accumulating gold with a stop-loss at $3,900 an ounce. "The worst of real rates' headwind to gold is likely behind us," the firm said in its latest report, adding that while geopolitical risks tied to the Middle East could still create short-term volatility, its base case is for U.S. real rates to remain broadly stable over the coming months, helping gold establish a bottom. Speaking with Kitco News, Roukaya Ibrahim, chief commodities strategist at BCA Research, said investors should focus less on inflation and more on the outlook for real yields. "The recommendation to buy now basically embeds that real rates and the U.S. dollar are not going to rise further from here, and that headwind is already gone," she said, noting that gold has held the $4,000-an-ounce level despite recent macro headwinds. BCA's report argues that gold has returned to trading primarily as a macro asset after several years during which central bank buying overwhelmed traditional market drivers. The research firm believes real rates and the U.S. dollar have once again become the dominant forces determining bullion prices, while central bank purchases now provide a floor under the market rather than acting as the primary catalyst for further gains. Although markets have priced in additional Federal Reserve tightening, Ibrahim said she sees little risk that policymakers become more hawkish than current expectations. "Even if the Fed does hike, I don't see them hiking by more than what's already priced in," she said. "The odds of that are quite low" unless oil prices experience a significant and sustained surge that pushes inflation expectations materially higher. That view underpins BCA's bullish stance on gold . Ibrahim said gold does not require imminent rate cuts to rally—only confirmation that the peak in real yields is already behind the market. "The headwind from opportunity costs is going to ease, and it's going to turn into a tailwind," she said. "Not because the U.S. economy is going to crack, but because the tightening is already priced in." BCA also pushes back against the common perception that gold is primarily an inflation hedge. Instead, the firm argues that inflation only benefits bullion when it undermines confidence in the Federal Reserve and suppresses real yields. " Gold 's ability to act as an inflation hedge is overstated. Real rates, rather than inflation, determine gold's performance," the report said. As long as inflation expectations remain well anchored and the Fed maintains credibility, higher inflation initially weighs on gold by pushing real yields higher. Even if another oil-driven inflation shock emerges, Ibrahim expects any rise in real rates to prove temporary. "If we do get a price spike and inflation spike, then probably very quickly the attention is going to shift from it being an inflation story to being a growth story," she said. That transition would eventually cap the Fed's hawkishness and establish "a bottom for gold prices." The firm also sees longer-term support coming from structural forces, including reserve diversification away from the U.S. dollar and persistent central bank buying. While BCA believes the pace of official-sector purchases has likely peaked, it argues that ongoing buying continues to justify elevated gold prices and should prevent a return to 2022 price levels absent a shift by central banks to become net sellers. Over the longer term, BCA also expects the greenback to weaken as structural pressures build. "The greenback will shift from being a headwind to a tailwind to the yellow metal," the report concluded. Source： https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-08-06/now-time-buy-gold-bca-sees-bullish-opportunity-real-yields-peak

06 Aug 2026 Thought of the day Gold climbed above USD 4,250/oz for the first time since June, breaking above its recent trading range of between USD 4,000/oz and USD 4,100/oz. Reported Chinese institutional buying and inflows into exchange-trade funds (ETFs) have supported the latest price movement, while recent joint government efforts by the US and Japan to stabilize the yen may also have helped reduce the risk of a sell-off in US Treasuries. Near-term risks remain, especially if US data stay firm, oil prices keep inflation concerns alive, or markets continue to price in a more hawkish Federal Reserve rate path. But while the immediate backdrop may remain volatile, the medium- to long-term case for gold still looks supported by several durable drivers. We expect gold prices to rise toward USD 5,000/oz in the first half of 2027. Lower real rates should eventually revive investment demand. Gold does not pay income, so higher real yields increase the opportunity cost of holding it. But we expect inflation to gradually moderate, allowing the Fed to hold interest rates steady this year before resuming easing in 2027. This should create a more favorable backdrop for gold, as a shift toward lower policy-rate expectations would likely reduce real yields, weigh on the US dollar, and help boost investment demand for gold. A softer dollar and diversification flows remain powerful medium-term supports. The US dollar may stay resilient in the near term, but structural challenges including large US fiscal and external deficits and already elevated investor allocations to US dollar assets mean there is scope for renewed weakness. A weaker dollar has historically been a powerful tailwind for gold, while a renewed focus on diversification away from the US dollar should benefit the precious metal. Central bank buying provides a durable floor for the market. Central bank demand has remained an important pillar of support, even when private investment demand has been lackluster. We expect annual central bank purchases to remain elevated, supported by a long-term desire to reduce exposure to USD assets. Following a strong second quarter, when central banks bought 289 metric tons of gold, we continue to estimate full-year purchases in the 750-1,000 metric ton range this year. While these flows may not be enough to drive prices sharply higher on their own, they can help stabilize the market and offset weaker areas such as jewelry demand. So, we think investors should separate near-term trading risk from the longer-term investment case. In fact, periods of weakness toward USD 4,000/oz or below may ultimately prove to be opportunities to build strategic exposure. For investors with an affinity for real assets, we continue to view a mid-single-digit gold allocation as appropriate within a well diversified portfolio. Investors can also consider a broad commodities exposure for better portfolio diversification. Source: https://www.ubs.com/global/en/wealthmanagement/insights/chief-investment-office/house-view/daily/2026/latest-06082026.html

SMM August 7 News: Metal Markets: Overnight, base metals on the domestic market broadly rose. SHFE copper edged up 0.1%. SHFE aluminum gained 0.38%. SHFE lead edged up 0.1%. SHFE zinc rose 1.11%, while SHFE tin fell 0.98%. SHFE nickel dropped 1.22%. Additionally, the most-traded alumina futures contract edged up 0.09%, while the most-traded foundry aluminum contract fell 0.52%. Overnight, ferrous metals all rose. Stainless steel edged up, iron ore gained 0.35%, and rebar rose 0.17%. Hot-rolled coil (HRC) increased 0.59%. For coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal futures contract rose 1.54%, and the most-traded coke contract gained 2.48%. Overnight, on the overseas market, LME base metals mostly fell. LME copper shot up to an intraday high of $14,369.5/mt, a level not seen since January 29, before eventually closing with a 0.4% decline. LME aluminum gained 0.65%. LME lead fell 0.29%. LME zinc rose 0.64%. LME tin dropped 1.43%. LME nickel fell 2.45%. Overnight Precious Metals : COMEX gold fell 0.15%, and COMEX silver dropped 0.81%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE gold futures contract fell 0.01%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract declined 0.93%. Closing prices as of 7:03 AM, August 7: Macro Front Domestic (China) News: [Guangdong: Promote the Integration of Futures and Spot Markets for Key Commodities like Iron Ore, Crude Oil, and Rubber to Enhance Pricing Influence on Bulk Commodities] The "15th Five-Year Plan for the Development of the China (Guangdong) Pilot Free Trade Zone (Draft for Comments)" was released for public comment. It mentioned plans to expand financial opening-up in an orderly manner. International financial institutions will be encouraged to set up headquarters in the zone, promoting the development of cross-border finance, innovative finance, venture capital and investment, wealth management, futures trading, asset management, specialty finance, and offshore services. The Plan aims to accelerate the implementation of projects like the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area International Commercial Bank and the GBA Insurance Service Center. It supports expanding the scale of commodity trading and promoting the integration of futures and spot markets for key commodities like iron ore, crude oil, and rubber to enhance their pricing influence. The Plan will promote the quality improvement and upgrade of fintech regulatory pilots and expand digital yuan application scenarios. It supports pilot programs for cross-border financial innovations such as offshore finance and green finance, and will promote the expansion of pilot programs like cross-border Wealth Management Connect and digital yuan cross-border payments. Institutions within the zone will be supported in developing specialty products like cross-border supply chain finance and intellectual property-pledged financing, and market entities will be guided to develop composite financial products. Pilots for cross-border credit asset transfers and multi-currency integrated accounts will be deepened to promote wider mutual recognition and connectivity of cross-border financial products. (Guangdong Department of Commerce) [CAAM: June Auto Commodity Import and Export Value Hits $31.82 Billion, Up 35.5% YoY] According to data from the General Administration of Customs compiled by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM), the total import and export value of auto commodities in June 2026 was $31.82 billion, up 8.0% MoM and up 35.5% YoY. The import value was $3.39 billion, down 6.1% MoM and down 18.7% YoY; the export value was $28.43 billion, up 10.0% MoM and up 47.2% YoY. From January to June 2026, the cumulative import and export value of national auto commodities totaled $164.74 billion, up 25.5% YoY. The import value was $19.25 billion, down 11.8% YoY; the export value was $145.49 billion, up 33.0% YoY. (Jin10 Data APP) US Dollar: Overnight, the US dollar index rose 0.26% to 99.95. Escalating geopolitical tensions weighed on both US stocks and bonds, causing them to fall. Oil prices jumped, reigniting inflation concerns ahead of the key US employment report. Market focus now turns to Friday's US employment report for new clues on the Federal Reserve's policy path. Stronger-than-expected jobs data could reinforce the case for higher-for-longer interest rates, while any escalation of tensions in the Middle East could push up energy prices and intensify market fluctuations. UBS analyst Ulrike Hoffmann noted: "Short-term risks remain, especially if US data remains firm, oil prices continue to fuel inflation concerns, or the market continues pricing in a more hawkish Fed rate path." Interactive Brokers Senior Economist José Torres stated: "Wall Street reversed again from recent strong gains as the lack of clarity concerning the Strait of Hormuz led investors to question whether the robust rally early this week was justified." (Jin10 Data APP) According to the CME "FedWatch" tool: The probability of the US Fed keeping rates unchanged by September is 45%, while the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point hike is 55%. The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged through October is 31%, while the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point hike is 51.9%, and a cumulative 50 basis point hike is 17.1%. (Jin10 Data APP) According to a report by the UK's Financial Times, even after a decision not to reveal too many details on rate strategy triggered a sharp sell-off in government bonds, Fed Chairman Warsh is sticking with his usual concise communication style. People close to Warsh say he acknowledges making some mistakes during his first 10 weeks at the helm of the world's most important central bank, including failing to reinforce his key message on price stability and creating confusion over whether his long-term plan to reform the Fed could influence near-term policy decisions. However, they insisted those mistakes were not enough to derail Warsh's reform plans for the Fed. People familiar with the matter also revealed that Warsh is prepared to raise interest rates at the September meeting if upcoming inflation data proves strong and market expectations for higher borrowing costs rise accordingly. The sources added that while the Fed Chairman raised the possibility of shrinking the central bank's $6.7 trillion balance sheet to tighten monetary policy, interest rates remain the primary tool for now and will be used at upcoming meetings if necessary. (Jin10 Data APP) Macro Events: Data releases today include France's Q2 ILO unemployment rate, Germany's June seasonally adjusted industrial output MoM, Germany's June seasonally adjusted trade balance, the UK's July Halifax seasonally adjusted house price index MoM, France's June trade balance, Switzerland's July consumer confidence index, Canada's July employment change, the US July unemployment rate, US July seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls, US July average hourly earnings YoY, US July average hourly earnings MoM, US July New York Fed 1-year inflation expectations, China's July US dollar-denominated trade balance, China's July foreign exchange reserves, and China's July trade balance data. Watches: 2028 FOMC voter and St. Louis Fed President Musalem speaks on the US economy and monetary policy; 2027 FOMC voter and Richmond Fed President Barkin delivers remarks. Crude Oil: Overnight, both oil futures rose, with US oil gaining 4% and Brent oil surging 4.57%. Geopolitical risks rekindled, causing oil prices to spike sharply. Wall Street CN mentioned that the new navigation agreement for the Strait of Hormuz, proposed to be signed by Iran and Oman, revealed significant details again, indicating Iran's bid to control the strait. Furthermore, Iran has taken action, striking "enemy targets" near the strait. Iran's Fars News Agency (FARS) reported on Thursday, August 6, local time, that Iran's parliament is reviewing this agreement. Under the agreement, US and Israeli vessels will be barred from transiting the Strait of Hormuz, and nations that have "caused harm to Iran" will also be denied passage permits. Following this news, concerns over risks to global energy transportation rapidly intensified in the market. (Wall Street CN) Saudi Arabia cut its main crude oil price for Asia as negotiations proceed on an agreement aimed at easing shipping pressure in the Strait of Hormuz. The price cut came despite Houthi threats jeopardizing the alternative eastbound crude route via the Red Sea. According to a price list, state oil company Saudi Aramco reduced the price of its Arab Light crude for delivery to Asian clients next month by $0.50 per barrel, setting it at a $2/bbl discount to the regional benchmark. A prior survey showed traders expected Saudi Aramco to keep its flagship crude price unchanged. Global benchmark Brent crude prices fell sharply this week and are now trading near $80/bbl. (Jin10 Data APP) Over the past two months, the UAE has transported more crude oil through the Strait of Hormuz than any other producer, providing a critical supply buffer to a global market suffering from a historic energy crisis. According to energy data firm Kpler, a Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) loaded with Emirati cargo appeared in the Gulf of Oman on Tuesday after turning off its Automatic Identification System (AIS) signal at the end of July. The tanker carries crude from the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company. This is just one of dozens of similar tankers that have departed the Persian Gulf since the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) began implementing a new sales strategy. According to trading sources familiar with the matter, since early June, ADNOC has sold over 130 million barrels of crude oil through seven unprecedented tenders. (Jin10 Data APP)

To adapt to the reshaping of global trade patterns and the commodity supercycle driven by new quality productive forces, accelerate the implementation of Shanghai’s deployment for building a commodity resource allocation hub in the opening year of the Fifteenth Five-Year Plan, and deepen the promotion of the Action Plan for Strengthening Futures-Spot Linkages to Enhance the Tier of Nonferrous Metal Commodities (18 Measures), elevating the “Shanghai price” from a regional metric to a global benchmark, SMM will host the “Shanghai Metals Expo 2026” (abbreviated as “SME”) from November 16 to 19, 2026. Against this backdrop, Shanghai Metals Expo 2026, scheduled for November 16-19, will be grandly convened in Shanghai . SMM , in partnership with Shanghai Wurui Metals Group Co., Ltd. , cordially invites you to attend . Themed “Reshaping Cycles, Pricing the Future,” this edition of SME Shanghai Metals Expo will focus on core variables such as shifts in global macro policies, the restructuring of geopolitical supply chains, and the metal supercycle. It strives to create an annual gathering that serves as an “information hub, pricing benchmark, trading platform, and industry network” for metals and related sectors, empowering the industry to move from passively enduring cycles to actively participating in pricing. Click the to sign up now. We look forward to meeting you at the conference. Shanghai Wurui Metals Group Co., Ltd., headquartered at the Shanghai Nonferrous Metal Trading Center, specializes in nonferrous metal trading and supply chain services. As one of China’s early practitioners of the futures-spot integration model, it has grown into a large-scale enterprise with a scale approaching RMB100 billion. The company primarily deals in core nonferrous metal varieties such as copper, aluminum, zinc, lithium carbonate, polysilicon, silicon metal, and rare and precious metals, with its copper and aluminum business scales consistently ranking among the industry’s top. Its annual supply volume to end-user factories exceeds 4 million mt, and it has been recognized by the Shanghai Municipal Government as a trade-oriented headquarters and a dual-headquarters enterprise under the headquarters economy for the private sector. Its business covers Shanghai, Taicang, Changsha, Foshan, Hong Kong, Singapore, Dubai, Tanzania, and other locations, and it possesses the industry’s largest spot trading and investment research team, continuously maintaining a leading position. Grounded in trade with client service at its core, the company drives the development of the commodity industry and aims to become a leading nonferrous metal commodity industry service provider in China. It strives to ensure Chinese enterprises do not suffer losses amid severe commodity fluctuations, practices the concept of price management for end-user enterprises, and is committed to becoming a frontrunner among China’s commodity service providers. Address: Unit A, 4th Floor, No. 2550 North Zhongshan Road, Putuo District, Shanghai Tel: 021-3225 8990 Contact: Wang Jiale SMM Conference Contact Ma Yao 18321395342 mayao@smm.cn

The China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released the July China Commodity Price Index on the 5th. Looking at the index's performance, the commodity price index pulled back slightly MoM, maintained a relatively large YoY increase, and the market operation foundation remained generally solid. The China Commodity Price Index for July stood at 128.6 points, pulling back 1.3% MoM but up 15.5% YoY. Among the 50 key commodities monitored by the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, prices of 14 commodities rose MoM in July. Among them, coke (7.1% MoM), Pr-Nd oxide (6.4% MoM), and corrugated paper (5.6% MoM) led the gains.

Deutsche Bank says gold's current rally, running since August 2024, is one of only five such episodes since 1975. Analysts at the bank see the recent pullback as largely complete and reiterates its $4,600/oz Q4 2026 forecast.

"Tin" Leads the Future: Industry Transformation and Value Reshaping in the New Cycle Conference Background Currently, the global tin industry is at a historic turning point. Traditional cyclical logic has been completely shattered, and strategic value has been fully highlighted. The tin market in 2026 is exhibiting an unprecedented complex pattern and profound transformation: I. Deep Reconstruction of Supply-Demand Pattern, Unprecedented Enhancement of Strategic Attributes The global static reserve-to-production ratio of tin resources is only 14 years, with scarcity becoming increasingly prominent. The supply side faces "triple pressure": the repeated delays in production resumptions in Myanmar, persistently tightening policies in Indonesia, and high geopolitical risks in the DRC. Resource constraints have become the new normal. Meanwhile, the demand structure is undergoing a fundamental shift, and tin has become a strategic resource connecting traditional manufacturing with the digital future. II. Price System Breaks Historical Records, Industry Ecology Faces Reshaping In early 2026, SHFE tin prices broke through 470,000 yuan/mt, reaching a historical high. This price breakthrough not only reflects supply-demand imbalance but also marks a revaluation of the tin industry's value. Traditional trade models, risk management systems, and supply chain collaboration methods all urgently need innovation and breakthroughs. III. Technology-Driven and Green Transformation Foster a New Symbiotic Ecosystem Digitalization and intelligent technologies are deeply empowering the tin industry chain. The global green transformation requires the tin industry to upgrade towards low-carbon and circular economy, with recycled tin recovery and green smelting processes becoming the inevitable path. All links in the industry chain must shift from competition to collaboration, building an open, resilient, and innovative symbiotic system. Against this backdrop, on August 19-21, 2026 in Changsha, Hunan held 2026 SMM (16th) Tin Industry Chain Conference will gather global industry elites for joint discussions. Shanghai Jiushi Metal Materials Co., Ltd. will attend this grand event, discussing industry development trends with peers and jointly promoting the tin industry to new heights. Click to register now and attend the conference, to witness and participate in this extraordinary and far-reaching industry event, and to jointly create a brilliant new chapter! Founded in 2008 with a registered capital of 100 million yuan, Shanghai Jiushi Metal Materials Co., Ltd. is a comprehensive enterprise specializing in non-ferrous metal raw material trading and integrating domestic and international trade resources. For over a decade, the company has deeply cultivated its main business in non-ferrous metals, consistently adhering to a philosophy of steady operation and professional service capabilities, steadily consolidating its brand and market foundation. It has accumulated a solid cooperation foundation and a good market reputation within the industry. The company primarily deals in electrolytic tin ingots, #1 electrolytic lead ingots, silver, nickel plates, zinc ingots, lead concentrates, and other non-ferrous metal products. It has formed a multi-category, full-chain supply chain service system, with a processing capacity of 30,000 mt of alloys, capable of meeting clients' diversified and integrated procurement and processing needs. After years of prudent strategic planning, the company has maintained a steady trade scale with ample supply reserves. Its current annual sales include 15,000 mt of tin ingots, 2,000 mt of silver, 200,000 mt of No.1 primary lead ingots, 300,000 mt of zinc ingots, 20,000 mt in metal content of lead concentrates, and 50,000 mt of nickel plates. Its total trade volume exceeded 10 billion yuan in 2025, demonstrating large-scale, regular, and sustainable stable supply capabilities. The company has always adhered to the business philosophy of "integrity and quality assurance, customer first, mutual benefit and symbiosis, and win-win cooperation," deeply cultivating the upstream and downstream of the industry chain and establishing a mature and stable supply-demand cooperation system. Upstream, it has long connected with large smelters in core production areas such as Yunnan, Guangxi, Zhejiang, Jiangxi, and Inner Mongolia, maintaining long-term stable strategic cooperation to control purity and quality at the source, ensuring sufficient supply and stable quality of tin ingots and various non-ferrous metal raw materials. Downstream, with Shanghai and Guangdong as core hubs, it has built a nationwide sales and service network covering east China, south China, and north China, offering rapid service response and stable, efficient delivery. With tin ingot trade as its core business, the company relies on ample spot reserves, stable source supply, and large-scale supply advantages to precisely connect with various downstream end-users, mainly serving clients in manufacturing fields such as electronics, PV, new energy, alloys, and chemicals. It can continuously and stably supply high-purity tin ingots and supporting non-ferrous metal raw materials according to different customers' production standards and material requirements. With service advantages of precise matching, controllable quality, and timely delivery, it has served a wide range of partners over the long term, accumulating a solid customer base and a strong industry reputation. In terms of operations and management, the company has established a standardized internal management system and a rigorous risk control and compliance system, strictly adhering to compliance bottom lines and tightly controlling operational risks to ensure long-term stable business operations. At the same time, leveraging deep industry expertise and market insights, it continuously optimizes its trade service models, flexibly uses diversified financial and trade financing tools, and customizes suitable cooperation plans based on actual customer needs, achieving mutual benefit and win-win outcomes for both sellers and buyers under the premise of sound risk control. Looking ahead, Shanghai Nine Stone Metal will continue to uphold the development concept of pragmatism, innovation, and steady progress, continuously optimizing its risk control system and enhancing the professional capabilities of its team. It will further improve the entire industry chain layout of non-ferrous metals, consolidate its core advantages in tin materials, steadily expand downstream markets and emerging application fields, and continuously advance high-quality and stable development. The company will join hands with industry peers and clients to cooperate and create mutual success. Founded in 2008 with a registered capital of RMB 100 million, Shanghai Nine Stone Metal Materials Co., Ltd. is a professional integrated enterprise engaged in non-ferrous metal commodity trading and global supply chain resource integration. With more than ten years of focused cultivation in the non-ferrous metal sector, the company has upheld a conservative operational strategy and premium service norms, steadily strengthened its brand equity and market foothold, and fostered stable cooperative relationships and a prestigious market standing within the industry. The company’s mainstream product lineup comprises electrolytic tin ingots, 1# standard electrolytic lead ingots, fine silver, nickel cathode plates, zinc ingots and lead concentrates, covering a full range of mainstream non-ferrous metal commodities. It has built a one-stop diversified supply chain service system, paired with an annual alloy processing capacity of 30,000 tons, to satisfy clients’ comprehensive customized procurement and processing demands. Supported by long-term strategic market deployment, the company boasts sustainable trading scale and adequate spot inventory. Its annual trading volume stands at 15,000 tons of tin ingots, 2,000 tons of fine silver, 200,000 tons of 1# standard electrolytic lead ingots, 300,000 tons of zinc ingots, 20,000 metal tons of lead concentrates and 50,000 tons of nickel plates. The company’s total trading turnover exceeded RMB 10 billion in 2025, enabling large-scale, standardized and enduring bulk commodity supply capacity. Adhering to the corporate principle of Integrity and Quality Priority, Customer Centricity, Mutual Benefit and Win-Win Partnership, the company has deeply penetrated the upstream and downstream segments of the industrial chain and established a mature and stable supply-demand collaboration system. Upstream, it maintains long-term strategic cooperative partnerships with benchmark smelting enterprises in core producing areas including Yunnan, Guangxi, Zhejiang, Jiangxi and Inner Mongolia. Through strict source quality control over product purity and specifications, the company guarantees stable supply and consistent quality uniformity of tin ingots and all non-ferrous metal commodities. Downstream, with Shanghai and Guangdong as core regional hubs, it has established a nationwide sales and after-sales service network covering East, South and North China, featuring rapid response and reliable full-cycle delivery efficiency. Centering on tin ingot bulk trading as its core pillar business, the company serves terminal manufacturing enterprises across electronics, photovoltaic, new energy, alloy manufacturing and fine chemical industries, relying on sufficient spot stock reserves, stable upstream resource channels and large-scale bulk supply advantages. It is capable of supplying high-purity tin ingots and supporting non-ferrous metal materials in a sustained manner in compliance with clients’ customized production criteria and material technical requirements. Driven by precise commodity matching, standardized quality control and on-time delivery assurance, the company has served a large number of long-term strategic partners and accumulated solid customer resources and superior industrial credibility. In corporate governance and operational management, the company has implemented standardized internal management mechanisms and established a rigorous compliance and risk management & control (RMC) system. It strictly abides by industrial specifications and regulatory policies, effectively mitigates operational risks, and ensures the long-term stable and compliant operation of all trading businesses. Drawing on profound industrial experience and forward-looking market insight, the company continuously optimizes its trading service model, flexibly applies diversified trade financing and financial instruments, and develops personalized cooperation solutions tailored to clients’ actual operational needs, realizing sustainable mutual benefit and win-win development for both supply and demand parties under standardized risk control. Looking forward, Shanghai Nine Stone Metal will continue to uphold the development tenet of pragmatism, innovation and steady progression. The company will further iterate and upgrade its risk control system, improve the professional competency of its core team, optimize the full industry chain layout of non-ferrous metal commodities, and consolidate its leading edge in tin material trading. It will steadily expand downstream market coverage and emerging industry application scenarios, promote high-quality and sustainable corporate development, and join hands with industrial peers and global clients to deepen strategic cooperation and create shared industrial value. Contact Information Zhou Long 15821697119 Wang Lin 18616349359 Long press to scan the code for immediate registration 2026 SMM (16th) Tin Industry Chain Conference

Background: Pangkalpinang Case Triggers Tighter Regulation of Rare Earth Elements in Indonesia’s Mineral Exports Recently, the detection issues surrounding Indonesia’s rare earth elements, or Logam Tanah Jarang (LTJ) , primarily stemmed from stricter government oversight of related mineral product exports following the Pangkalpinang case. The initial case involved an anomalous export of approximately 390 mt of materials containing rare earth elements and implicated PT Putraprima Mineral Mandiri, PT Sucofindo, and the Pangkalpinang Customs Office. It raised a broader regulatory question: when a mineral product contains rare earth or radioactive elements as associated elements, should the product continue to be treated under its primary export commodity classification or be subject to rare earth-related export restrictions. This issue quickly rippled through Indonesia’s broader mineral export chain. High-grade NPI, NPI, MHP, alumina, and tin-related products are not themselves exported as rare earth products, but they may contain trace amounts of associated rare earth elements or radioactive elements. Consequently, with regulatory parameters not yet fully clarified, surveyors and customs tended to be cautious, causing a slowdown in LS report issuance and customs clearance for some shipments. For the nickel industry, the incident quickly became a market focal point, as exports of high-grade NPI, NPI, and MHP were all affected by additional testing requirements. Market feedback indicated that some cargoes experienced short-term port detentions or shipment disruptions, and the impact was not confined to a single enterprise. Some traders also reported that related cargoes faced shipment difficulties during the period of disruption. Why Rare Earth Elements Matter: Indonesia Strengthens Value Controls Over Critical Minerals Before Export Rare earth elements have drawn attention due to their extensive application in high-value-added fields such as EVs, permanent magnet materials, electronic products, new energy, and national defense-related materials. For Indonesia, this issue is not only about export customs clearance but also about resource value control. The Indonesian government is placing increasing emphasis on identifying, regulating, and protecting the value of critical mineral resources before they leave the country. The problem is that rare earth elements often do not exist as standalone products but appear as associated or trace elements in other minerals. If all products containing small amounts of rare earth elements were treated as restricted rare earth exports, normal mineral exports could be disrupted; yet if rare earth content is not identified or regulated at all, Indonesia could lose control over the value of strategic minerals. The commonly recognized 17 rare earth elements include: lanthanum, cerium, praseodymium, neodymium, promethium, samarium, europium, gadolinium, terbium, dysprosium, holmium, erbium, thulium, ytterbium, lutetium, yttrium, and scandium . In recent market discussions, the testing scope mainly involved these 17 rare earth elements, while radioactive elements such as thorium and uranium also became items of inspection concern. Rare earth elements are often not produced as independent products but exist in other minerals in the form of associated elements . This also creates a regulatory gray area. If every export shipment containing trace rare earth elements were treated as rare earth exports, many normal mineral shipments could face delays. But if associated rare earth content is not tested at all, Indonesia risks the loss of strategic mineral value. Therefore, the market’s focus is not merely on whether nickel product exports are disrupted; the larger question is whether Indonesia is entering a new regulatory phase requiring more detailed chemical composition verification for mineral exports. What Happened in the Market: LS Report Delays and Additional Testing Disrupted Mineral Shipments According to SMM’s market understanding, the recent testing requirements temporarily affected the export of some processed mineral products from Indonesia. For nickel products, the impact was mainly reflected in three aspects. Delays in LS report issuance. LS reports are critical documents in the export process, and delays in their issuance directly affect customs clearance and cargo release. According to SMM’s understanding as of July 24, relevant authorities also noted that laboratory testing preparations remained relatively limited, and due to differing interpretations of how to handle rare earth elements during export verification, 102 LS survey reports were still pending. Short-term port detentions for some cargoes. Market feedback indicated that shipments of some NPI and MHP cargoes were affected, and some traders also mentioned that QMB-related cargoes faced shipment difficulties during the disruption. Export enterprises required to organize additional testing. The government required testing of 17 rare earth elements and radioactive elements in certain products, and some enterprises were still awaiting testing results or further clarity from surveyors and customs. Thus, this incident is not a direct export ban on nickel products but a short-term administrative and testing bottleneck arising from unclear regulatory parameters for associated rare earth and radioactive elements. Impact on the Nickel Market: NPI and Other Nickel Product Exports Mainly Affected by Shipment Pace Disruptions For the high-grade NPI and NPI market, the short-term impact was mainly on shipment pace rather than production. Some port cargoes experienced delays due to affected LS reports and customs clearance processes. According to SMM’s latest understanding, LS survey reports were being released in batches, and some high-grade NPI cargoes at ports had begun to be released progressively. As the current disruption primarily occurred in export documentation and customs clearance, the direct impact on NPI production was limited. If LS report issuance and customs clearance continue to normalize, the impact on the overall NPI market is expected to be limited. At this stage, the issue appears more as a short-term export process disruption rather than a confirmed structural restriction on NPI exports. For the MHP market, some cargoes were also affected by the rare earth-related testing requirements. According to market feedback, some MHP shipments faced short-term inability to ship smoothly during the disruption. Similar to NPI, the core issues centered on LS report issuance, testing requirements, and customs clearance, rather than direct restrictions on MHP production. The latest Indonesian government coordination outcome clarified that export procedures should refer to the primary mineral product and its derivative attributes, rather than automatically treating associated rare earth elements or radioactive elements in the product as grounds for export restrictions. Therefore, for MHP, the key lies in whether the product can continue to be classified and exported based on its primary product attributes. Market Feedback and Industry Concerns: Unclear Technical Standards Create Uncertainty for Export Enterprises Market feedback indicated that rare earth-related testing requirements had already caused real disruptions to Indonesia’s mineral product export chain. According to Arif Perdanakusumah, Chairman of FINI (Indonesian Nickel Smelting Association), at least 120 bulk commodity vessels were unable to sail or depart due to the need to test for rare earth content. He noted that this situation caused losses not only for enterprises but also for the government, primarily because there were still no clear regulations providing technical guidance on rare earth content thresholds. Industry associations generally understood that this policy was part of the government’s effort to improve mineral governance, but they also stressed that technical implementation still needed re-examination, particularly given that rare earth elements in many mineral products exist only as associated or trace elements rather than primary products. This distinction is especially important for commodities such as nickel, bauxite, tin, and copper, as enterprises' permits and processing designs are primarily centered on the main minerals, and rare earth elements may merely be naturally occurring by-products or associated elements. The bauxite industry also raised similar concerns. Ronald Sulistyanto, Chairman of ABI (Indonesian Bauxite Association), stated that the rare earth issue should be addressed based on its technical nature and handled by the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, as the ministry possesses the relevant mining and mineral expertise. He emphasized that the key question is whether rare earth elements are primary products or merely associated elements. If they are primary products, relevant export restrictions could apply; but if they are only associated elements, more detailed technical clarification is needed rather than causing widespread export disruptions. Sari Esayanti, Executive Director of IMA (Indonesian Mining Association), also pointed out that most mining enterprises still center on the primary commodities covered by their permits and existing processing designs. In multiple commodities such as tin, bauxite, nickel, and copper, rare earth elements are typically just associated elements. She also stated that most mining enterprises currently lack adequate facilities or technology to identify, separate, or economically utilize rare earth elements. Thus, new interpretations regarding rare earth element declarations or export obligations have created uncertainty for enterprises. From an industry perspective, the most urgent need currently is technical certainty. Enterprises require clearer parameters, testing methods, and declaration mechanisms so that all exporters, surveyors, and customs authorities can adopt uniform standards. Without consistent technical guidance, even if the current bottleneck gradually eases, similar shipment delays could still recur. Latest Government Developments and Resolution Direction: Primary Product Attributes Become the Core Clarification Point The most important development came from the Indonesian government’s coordination letter dated July 31, 2026. According to the document, the Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs convened a coordination meeting on July 30 to discuss export obstacles related to the presence of rare earth elements and/or radioactive elements in mineral products and their derivatives. Key points from the government coordination included: Exports of mineral products and their derivatives should still be conducted in accordance with existing trade regulations, including Minister of Trade Regulation No. 23/2023 on Export Policies and Arrangements and Minister of Trade Regulation No. 22/2023 on Prohibited Export Goods, with reference to subsequent amendments. Relevant regulations should be understood as applying to primary mineral products and their derivatives, rather than automatically applying to associated elements within these products. This is the most critical clarification for high-grade NPI, NPI, MHP, alumina, and other processed mineral products. If radioactive elements are present in the product, as long as they fall under naturally occurring radioactive material, i.e., NORM (Naturally Occurring Radioactive Material), exports can still proceed. This helps mitigate the risk of trace radioactive elements automatically causing export obstructions. Export enterprises, surveyors, and customs authorities should refer to the export attributes of the primary mineral product and its derivatives when handling exports. This provides a basis for the gradual resumption of LS report issuance and customs clearance. The Indonesian Attorney General’s Office will concurrently issue a legal opinion, to support the clarification of relevant regulatory interpretations. The government plans to accelerate the revision of relevant regulations, including Minister of Trade Regulation No. 23/2023, Minister of Trade Regulation No. 22/2023, and Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources Regulation No. 25/2018. Relevant discussions are expected to commence on August 3, 2026, targeting completion of revisions within approximately one week. SMM View: Short-Term Export Disruption, but Medium and Long-Term Signal of Tighter Mineral Oversight Released SMM believes that this rare earth testing incident is a short-term disruption but also an important policy signal. In the short term, as LS reports are progressively issued and customs enforcement parameters become clearer, the impact on NPI and MHP exports is expected to gradually ease. If cargo clearance continues to normalize, the impact on the overall nickel market supply-demand pattern is expected to be limited. However, the incident also demonstrates that Indonesia is strengthening its oversight of critical mineral element content, export documentation, and resource value protection. Even if this round of disruption is resolved relatively quickly, export enterprises may still face stricter testing requirements, clearer declaration obligations, and tighter coordinated supervision among agencies such as surveyors, customs, ESDM, and the Ministry of Trade in the future. Subsequent market focus should include: whether all previously delayed LS reports can be fully released. whether future cargoes will need to undergo complete testing for rare earth elements and radioactive elements. whether the government will clarify specific thresholds for rare earth elements, thorium, uranium, and NORM classification. whether the revised regulations can clearly distinguish between primary export products and associated trace elements. whether high-grade NPI, NPI, MHP, alumina, and tin-related products will face different enforcement standards. Overall, this incident should not be interpreted as Indonesia directly banning NPI or MHP exports, but rather as a process of regulatory clarification under the backdrop of strengthened oversight of rare earth and radioactive elements. If the subsequent implementation details are clarified quickly, the market impact will largely remain at the short-term level; if rules remain unclear, similar shipment delays and administrative friction could still recur.

Background: Pangkalpinang Case Triggered Wider REE Scrutiny Indonesia’s recent rare earth element (REE), or Logam Tanah Jarang (LTJ) , inspection issue appears to have been triggered by stricter government scrutiny following the Pangkalpinang case. The initial case was linked to alleged irregularities involving around 390 tonnes of REE-containing material and involved PT Putraprima Mineral Mandiri, PT Sucofindo, and the Pangkalpinang Customs office. This raised a broader regulatory question: when a mining product contains rare earth elements or radioactive elements as associated content, should it still be treated as its main export product, or should it fall under rare-earth-related export restrictions? This issue quickly affected Indonesia’s wider mineral export chain. Products such as NPI, ferronickel, MHP, alumina, and tin-related products are not exported as rare earth products. However, they may contain trace amounts of associated REE or radioactive elements. As a result, surveyors and customs became more cautious, causing delays in LS issuance and customs clearance for some cargoes. For the nickel industry, the issue became an immediate concern because both NPI/ferronickel and MHP exports were affected by additional testing requirements. Market feedback indicated that some cargoes were temporarily stuck, and the disruption was not limited to one company. Some traders also reported that QMB-related cargoes could not be shipped smoothly during the disruption period. Why REE Matters: Indonesia Moves to Protect Critical Mineral Value Before Export REE matters because rare earth elements are strategic materials used in high-value industries such as electric vehicles, permanent magnets, electronics, renewable energy, and defense-related materials. For Indonesia, the issue is not only about export clearance, but also about resource-value control. The government is increasingly focused on identifying and protecting critical mineral value before it leaves the country. The challenge is that REE often appears not as a standalone product, but as an associated or trace element in other mineral products. If every product containing small REE content is treated as a restricted rare earth export, normal mineral shipments could be delayed. However, if REE content is not monitored at all, Indonesia may lose control over strategic mineral value. The 17 rare earth elements generally include lanthanum, cerium, praseodymium, neodymium, promethium, samarium, europium, gadolinium, terbium, dysprosium, holmium, erbium, thulium, ytterbium, lutetium, yttrium, and scandium . In the recent market discussion, testing was understood to cover these 17 REE elements, while radioactive elements such as thorium and uranium also became part of the inspection concern. The problem is that rare earth elements are often not produced as standalone products. They can appear as associated elements in other mining products. This creates a regulatory grey area. If every exported product containing trace REE must be treated as a rare earth export, then many normal mineral shipments could be delayed. But if associated REE content is not checked at all, Indonesia risks losing control over strategic mineral value. Therefore, the market concern is not only whether nickel exports are blocked. The larger concern is whether Indonesia is entering a new phase where exports of mineral products require more detailed chemical-content verification. What Happened in the Market: LS Delays and Additional Testing Disrupted Mineral Shipments According to SMM’s market understanding, the recent inspection requirement temporarily affected exports of several Indonesian processed mineral products. For nickel products, the impact was mainly reflected in three areas. LS issuance slowed down. The LS report is a key export document, so delays directly affected customs clearance and shipment release. According to SMM’s understanding on July 24, it is reported that around 102 surveyor reports were delayed due to differences in interpretation regarding REE checks during export verification. Some cargoes were temporarily stuck at ports. Market participants reported delays in NPI and MHP shipments, while some traders also mentioned that QMB-related cargoes faced similar obstacles. Exporters had to organize additional testing. The government required checks on 17 REE elements and radioactive elements in certain products. Some companies were still waiting for test results or clarification from surveyors and customs. Therefore, this was not a direct export ban on nickel products. It was mainly a temporary administrative and testing bottleneck caused by unclear implementation standards for associated REE and radioactive elements. Impact on the Nickel Market: NPI and other Nickel Product Exports Affected Mainly Through Shipment Delays For the NPI and ferronickel market, the short-term impact was mainly reflected in shipment timing rather than production. Some port-side cargoes were delayed because LS reports and customs clearance were affected. According to SMM’s latest market understanding, LS reports are currently being issued in batches, and some high-grade NPI cargoes at ports have started to be released. As the current disruption mainly occurred during the export documentation and clearance process, the direct impact on NPI production was limited. If LS issuance and customs clearance continue to normalize, the impact on the overall NPI market is expected to remain limited. At this stage, the issue is more related to temporary export procedure disruption rather than a confirmed structural restriction on NPI exports. For the MHP market, some shipments were also affected by the REE-related inspection requirement. According to market feedback, certain MHP cargoes, were temporarily unable to be shipped smoothly during the disruption period. Similar to NPI, the key issue was mainly related to LS issuance, testing requirements, and customs clearance rather than a direct restriction on MHP production. The government’s latest coordination result clarified that export procedures should refer to the main mining product and its derivatives, rather than automatically treating associated REE or radioactive elements as the basis for export restriction. Market Feedback and Industry Concerns: Lack of Technical Standards Created Uncertainty for Exporters Market feedback shows that the REE-related inspection requirement has created practical disruption for Indonesia’s mineral export chain. According to FINI Chairman Arif Perdanakusumah, at least 120 commodity vessels were unable to sail or leave ports due to the requirement to test rare earth element content. He noted that the situation caused losses not only for companies, but also for the government, mainly because there was still no clear regulation providing technical guidance on REE content limits. Industry associations generally understand that the policy is part of the government’s effort to improve mineral governance. However, they also emphasized that the technical implementation needs to be reviewed, especially because many mining products contain REE only as associated or trace elements rather than as the main product. This distinction is important for commodities such as nickel, bauxite, tin, and copper, where companies are licensed and designed to produce the main commodity, while REE content may naturally appear as a by-product or associated element. The bauxite industry also raised similar concerns. ABI Chairman Ronald Sulistyanto stated that the REE issue should be returned to its core technical framework and handled by the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, as the ministry has the relevant mining and mineral expertise. He stressed that the key question is whether REE is the main product or only an associated element. If it is the main product, then specific export restrictions may apply. However, if it is only an associated element, the issue requires more detailed technical clarification rather than broad export disruption. IMA Executive Director Sari Esayanti also highlighted that most mining companies are currently oriented toward their main licensed commodity and existing processing design. In many commodities such as tin, bauxite, nickel, and copper, REE generally appears as an associated element. She also noted that most mining companies do not yet have sufficient facilities or technology to identify, separate, or economically utilize REE elements. As a result, new interpretations around REE reporting or export obligations have created uncertainty for business players. From the industry’s perspective, the most urgent requirement is technical certainty. Companies need clearer parameters, testing methodology, and reporting mechanisms so that all exporters, surveyors, and customs authorities apply the same standard. Without consistent technical guidance, similar shipment delays could occur again even if the current bottleneck is gradually resolved. Government Update and Resolution The most important update came from the Indonesian government coordination letter dated July 31, 2026. According to the letter, Indonesia’s Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs held a coordination meeting on July 30 to discuss export obstacles related to REE and/or radioactive content in mining products and derivatives. Key points from the government coordination result: Exports should continue to follow existing trade regulations , including Minister of Trade Regulation No. 23/2023 on export policies and arrangements, and Minister of Trade Regulation No. 22/2023 on prohibited export goods, as amended by later regulations. The regulation should apply to the main mining product and its derivatives, not automatically to associated elements contained in those products. This is the most important clarification for NPI, ferronickel, MHP, alumina, and other processed mineral products. Products containing radioactive elements may still be exported if the content is classified as Naturally Occurring Radioactive Material, or NORM. This helps reduce the risk that trace radioactive content automatically blocks exports. Exporters, surveyors, and customs should refer to the main product classification when processing exports. This provides a basis for LS issuance and customs clearance to gradually resume. A Legal Opinion from the Attorney General’s Office will be prepared in parallel to support the regulatory clarification. The government plans to accelerate revisions to Minister of Trade Regulation No. 23/2023, Minister of Trade Regulation No. 22/2023, and Minister of ESDM Regulation No. 25/2018. Discussions are expected to start on August 3, 2026, with completion targeted within around one week. SMM View: Short-Term Export Disruption, but a Longer-Term Signal of Stricter Mineral Supervision SMM believes the REE inspection issue is a short-term disruption, but also an important policy signal. In the short term, the impact on NPI and MHP exports should gradually ease as LS reports are issued and customs interpretation becomes clearer. If cargo clearance continues to normalize, the impact on overall nickel supply-demand balance should remain limited. However, the event shows that Indonesia is strengthening supervision over critical mineral content, export documentation, and resource-value protection. Even after the current disruption is resolved, exporters may face stricter testing, clearer reporting requirements, and closer coordination among surveyors, customs, ESDM, the Ministry of Trade, and other agencies. Going forward, the market should monitor: Whether all delayed LS reports can be fully cleared. Whether future shipments will require full REE and radioactive-content testing. Whether the government will set clear thresholds for REE, thorium, uranium, and NORM classification. Whether the revised regulations clearly distinguish main export products from associated trace elements. Whether NPI, ferronickel, MHP, alumina, and tin-related products will face different implementation standards. Overall, this event should not be interpreted as a direct ban on NPI or MHP exports. It is more accurately a regulatory clarification process triggered by Indonesia’s stronger focus on rare earth and radioactive element content in mineral products. If implementation becomes clear quickly, the impact will remain temporary. If rules remain vague, shipment delays and administrative friction could reappear.